MLG had some carrot and some stick for New Mexico's legislature as she signed the proclamation calling for a special session starting at noon today that has been strongly opposed by a variety of Democratic Party interest groups. 

She corralled leading law enforcement officials as well as a number of mayors to help make her case for the session at a news conference at the Roundhouse. (Full video here.)

The stick came out when she left open the question of calling another special session if this one is quickly adjourned without major action as has been rumored all week. She observed:

There's precedence for calling multiple sessions back-to-back, so I'm no stranger to what is available.  

The carrot came when she indicated a late breaking deal on her crime bills is still possible: 

I am open to compromise, but I need lawmakers to come to the table and work with me on behalf of New Mexicans. Together, we can make our state safer for all.

Leading legislators also were not budging as they caucused late Wednesday, continuing to maintain that the Governor's crime proposals--especially a bill dealing with the mental competency of accused criminals--was too complicated to pass in a short special session.

She countered that the issue isn't time but political will.

Progressives have been vocal in their opposition to the crime measures and their was hand has been strengthened by their success at the June primary. That makes it doubly difficult for MLG to carry the day as their new colleagues will join them in January. 

But both sides do agree on one item--relief for victims of the recent fires at Ruidoso.

That measure and an appropriation to finance the special session estimated at $50,000 a day seem assured of passage. After that it's up in the air. Stay tuned.

The Governor's proclamation is at the end of this blog.

HENRICH NICKS NELLA

Heinrich ad

In the first negative campaign ad of the US Senate campaign Sen. Martin Heinrich nicks GOP contender Nella Domenici over how long she has lived in New Mexico and the fortune she made on Wall Street. The script:

Domenici may have a name that’s familiar, But how familiar is she with New Mexico? Well, Nella hadn’t lived in New Mexico since 1973, Back when Richard Nixon was president. She’d been living in a waterfront mansion in Connecticut, Has a $5 million dollar apartment in New York City, And spent her career helping Wall Street get richer. And now, Nella’s trying to buy our senate seat. Wall Street’s got enough senators. We need one who will fight for us.

The state GOP responded by pointing out Heinrich was not born here (he was born in Nevada and grew up in Missouri). The party also came with this:

. . .Martin Heinrich's campaign has entered desperation mode. (He) is showing he is terrified by the momentum building behind Nella Domenici's campaign. . . Heinrich is resorting to false, petty, and personal attacks that underscore why so many are frustrated with the state of politics today. . .Nella Domenici was born in New Mexico and only moved when her father was elected to serve as the U.S. Senator of our great state. She and her husband Pat have called New Mexico home for years. The bottom line is Heinrich can't run on his record of failures, so he's resorting to desperate, personal attacks.

The ad is light negative with the apparent aim of keeping Domenici in check amid Democratic panic over prospects for Biden in the state and some polling that shows the Senate race here tightening. 

In the only public poll--conducted by PPP June 13-14--Heinrich led Domenici 47 to 40 percent but the Domenici camp says their internal poll has that margin shrinking to three points. 

The race has not yet been targeted by the national Republicans.

SPECIAL SESSION PROCLAMATION 

MLG signs proclamation

From the Governor's office:

Gov. Lujan Grisham convenes special legislative session to address urgent public safety issues 

WHEREAS, a significant amount of criminal defendants have their charges dropped due to a determination of incompetency and are allowed to go free without receiving the mental health services they need to address their mental health issues and prevent future criminal activity; 

WHEREAS, the standard for imposing civil commitment or assisted outpatient treatment in New Mexico is outdated such that the definition of “danger to self” or “danger to others” creates a dangerously high bar to having someone receive the mental health treatment they need, which prevents officials and loved ones from getting those suffering from severe mental illness desperately needed care and jeopardizes community safety as a consequence; 

WHEREAS, local law enforcement agencies do not consistently report crime and ballistic information to the Department of Public Safety, which is vital to effective criminal investigations and comprehensive analysis of criminal activities across jurisdictions; 

WHEREAS, New Mexico has the nation's highest rate of pedestrian fatalities per capita, according to the Governors Highway Safety Association, and many of these fatalities and other vehicle-pedestrian accidents occur as a result of individuals unsafely remaining on medians; 

WHEREAS, New Mexico has some of the highest rates of gun violence in the Nation, and much of this violence is perpetrated by convicted felons; 

WHEREAS, New Mexico’s Racketeering Act needs to be updated to ensure that the State can stem the rise of organized crime by effectively prosecuting those involved in criminal organizations; 

WHEREAS, hundreds of New Mexicans die from drug overdoses every year, many of which are the result of the widespread availability of fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid up to fifty times stronger than heroin; 

WHEREAS, communities across the State have been devastated by the South Fork and Salt Fires and other natural disasters, as noticed in Major Disaster Declaration DR-4795-NM, and continue to require aid from the federal government to address the aftermath of these natural disasters; and WHEREAS, it is necessary for the New Mexico State Legislature to convene at the State Capitol Building to address these pressing issues. 

NOW THEREFORE, I, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Governor of the State of New Mexico, by virtue of the authority vested in me by Article IV, Section 6 of the New Mexico Constitution, do hereby issue this proclamation and call the Fifty-Sixth Legislature of the State of New Mexico into a Special Session at twelve o’clock p.m. on Thursday July 18, 2024, at the State Capitol Building in Santa Fe. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

The money chase in the state's two high-profile congressional races this year remains static. After the filing of the latest FEC reports the Democratic incumbents continue to hold 2 to 1 cash on hand advantages over their Republican rivals. 

Nella Domenici, who made a fortune in the finance industry, raised $2.9 million in the second quarter, including a $1 million personal loan that comes on on top of an earlier $500,000 loan. But her new cash on hand balance of $2.126 million is only enough to keep Domenici, daughter of the late GOP US Senator Pete Domenici, pedaling in place.

Heinrich reports raising $1.7 million in the three months covered. His cash balance June 30 was $4.7 million, maintaining the more than 2 to 1 cash lead over Domenici that he had at the beginning of the reporting period. 

Domenici has raised a total of $3.6 million for her campaign which started in January. Heinrich has raised $7.7 million since the beginning of 2023. 

Domenici's financial disclosure forms say she has assets of anywhere from $21 million to $94 million. 

Heinrich's senate disclosure form reports he has assets as high as $564,000 or as low as a negative $290,000 when a mortgage is accounted for.

Political pros say Domenici doesn't need to be neck and neck with Heinrich in the money race but needs to be closer to encourage more donations and public perception of the contest. 

The race has yet to be targeted by the national GOP. If it were, she could count on significant outside financial support. For now she's on her own. 

The Cook Political Report continues to rank the New Mexico senate race "Solid Democratic."

In the other top-tier state contest, Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez holds a 2 to 1 cash on hand advantage over Republican Yvette Herrell in the race for the southern congressional seat. 

Herrell reports $1.354 million in cash at the end of June. Vasquez reports $2.7 milllion in cash. He has raised a total of nearly $4 million thus far and Herrell $2.4 million.  

That advantage is not as significant as Heinrich's since this race has been targeted nationally and millions of campaign dollars will be coming in for both hopefuls. Still, that Vasquez's personal committee continues to outperform Herrell's is a morale booster for his campaign. 

There is no recent public polling in the contest. The Cook Political Report rates it a Toss-Up.

SPECIAL REACT 

In our report on the special legislative session set for Thursday we noted that ABQ Mayor Tim Keller was "egging on" MLG's criticism of the legislature at a Monday news conference at an ABQ homeless camp. His office responded: 

Mayor Keller will continue to "egg on" any elected official who can support Albuquerque’s efforts on homelessness and crime fighting. Tim’s penchant for special sessions is well known, and as a former State Senator he’s consistently held the 60/30 day session structure has always held back New Mexico from addressing its major challenges. A special session is the only way to move the ball forward with the constraints of our state’s Constitution.

And as the session approaches with a stalemate between the Governor and lawmakers, we get this from a reader: 

If you are a regular Joe or Judy watching the special session debacle you have to be disgusted. Homelessness, substance abuse and crime are raging across our state. Gun violence is out of control and the social safety net is not holding up-increasing the numbers of drug-addicted people on the streets. The legislature stands defiant and lazy; unwilling to interrupt their precious summer vacations to do their jobs. The Governor doesn’t have the wherewithal or attention span to harness public support to put pressure on the political elites. Progressive interest groups, who claim to care about families, don’t want to bother going to Santa Fe. So, what do we get from the ineptitude? Status quo or worse. New Mexicans-you need to wait until January and then we’ll consider working on your issues. This is the real crisis in our state from which all our problems stem-ineffective political leaders.

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Lunch at the Mansion

When legislators turn down a free lunch, you know things are bad. 

Look at that photo courtesy of the Alligators. It appears that only one lawmaker bothered to accept MLG's invitation to lunch at the Guv's Mansion Monday as she desperately tried to hammer out an agreement to avoid a complete breakdown of the special session set to begin Thursday.

The sole lawmaker hungry enough to lunch with her was outgoing Dem Senator Daniel-Ivey Soto. He looks lonelier (but happier) than he did on Primary Election Night when progressive groups banded together to take him out of his ABQ NE Heights legislative seat which he keeps until the end of the year. 

Ivey-Soto is a legendary deal-maker in Santa Fe but you have to have someone to make a deal with and right now literally no one is coming to the Governor's table. 

Word is she invited to lunch members of the judiciary committees of the House and Senate which is why so many chairs are set up but lawmakers bowed out. 

So what of the pressing question: What happened to all the leftovers? Well, we imagine the "First Manny" will be enjoying his lunch breaks for the next couple of days. 

PRETTY BAD

How bad is it? Even mild-mannered and accommodating Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth is lost to MLG, saying at a Monday news conference:

Special Sessions only work when the bills are cooked. We thought we had an agreement with the governor when she first indicated she wanted to call a special [session], that she wouldn’t proceed unless there was consensus. The governor went ahead and. . . called this session, before we had even started working on these bills; that’s certainly her prerogative. We have worked hard to try and find bipartisan consensus on the bills that were proposed. As the speaker said, we’re just not there.

Sen. Wirth

Sources say Wirth, who can usually be counted on to carry the Governor's water, went south after a "contentious" phone call with her over the weekend. 

She had already lost House Speaker Javier Martinez who again appeared livid Monday that lawmakers were being called back when there is no agreement on the five anti-crime measures MLG is putting on the session's agenda, 

That news conference by Wirth and Martinez left the clear impression that legislators could be gaveled into session Thursday for only a few minutes and then immediately adjourn. But the Governor's office showed no outward sign of worry or of cancelling the session, declaring that plans are going "full steam ahead."

Are those plans like MLG conducting a steam-powered locomotive and heading for a train wreck with legislators?

That a PAC supporting the Guv has put up radio ads urging the public to call legislators and pressure them to support MLG's special session agenda, doesn't seem to be helping.

At the news conference Speaker Martinez seemed to indicate the two sides may be going to the mattresses. He  pointedly said the lawmakers were ready to get to work if they had a a workable agenda. That sounded as if incoming fire against the lawmakers would be launched by MLG if they did not bend to her ways.   

BLASTING THE HOMELESS

MLG held a news conference at a downtown ABQ homeless camp and blasted the legislature for not embracing her bill that would strengthen mental competency laws and make it easier for judges to hold certain offenders in confinement. But the optics were a mixed bag. 

The homeless camp did not look nefarious and the Governor may have appeared tone deaf to their plight as she railed against them in support of her bill:

If these individuals will not seek care and break the law and come right back to the streets, there is nothing we can do to interrupt this chaos. 

But the event missed the mark with the Democratic base and may actually have strengthened the hand of the progressives who have called on her to cancel the session. 

She may think a tough line will rally Republicans and moderate Dems but they and she don't have the votes. A compromise is still the only way out. That Mayor Keller was there to egg her on only exposed the ineffectiveness of the city in fighting crime--not the state.

For Republicans this is a rare time to enjoy the Roundhouse. They are proposing all manner of crime bills that have no chance but at least they can show they are doing something. That's clearly not the case for the chief executive and the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. 

Then there's that other crisis. The Rio Chama bar and restaurant, across from the Roundhouse and a favorite hangout of legislators and lobbyists, has let its liquor license expire. 

No free lunches at the Mansion or premium booze nearby? How long can they last up there?

FULL COMMENTS

Here is the full statement of the Democratic legislative leadership on the special session:

House Speaker Javier Martínez (D-Albuquerque), House Majority Floor Leader Gail Chasey (D-Albuquerque),Senate Pro Tem Mimi Stewart (D-Albuquerque), and Senate Majority Floor Leader Peter Wirth (D-Santa Fe)issued the following statement: 

 

“We share the Governor’s commitment to improving public safety and expanding access to behavioral healthcare and substance use treatment. However, we have repeatedly noted that our constitutional duty as a separate and co-equal branch of government is to fully consider the legislation that comes before us and the potential impact it may have on New Mexicans. 

 

In a series of public committee meetings over the last few months, lawmakers brought together law enforcement, behavioral healthcare providers, disability rights groups, community leaders, and other subject matter experts to consider the legislation proposed by the Executive.  

 

Unfortunately, after several weeks of these meetings, we still have deep and serious concerns that the legislation proposed for this special session would have unintended consequences on New Mexicans, especially for those most vulnerable, and their liberties. 

 

Lawmakers, along with community leaders and advocates, have repeatedly raised their voices about the potential problematic impact of the proposed legislation. 

 

While we think these policies are not ready for the special session, we can and will continue our work on these issues in the interim and in the upcoming 60-day legislative session that begins in January. ”

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It's pro forma for politicians to immediately condemn instances of political violence but it is essential they do so if that violence is not to be accepted as the norm. 

A danger is that the intermittent chaos and shock caused by such events moves into the realm of something more permanent and menacing to the democracy. 

So the expressions of sorrow and condemnation by the state's political class over the attempted assassination of former President Trump at a Saturday Pennsylvania rally were expected but no less welcome. 

In the '24 NM contest laced with the most virulent symptoms of the divisiveness that afflicts today's politics, both hopefuls struck the right tone. 

Former GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, challenging Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez who unseated her two years ago and who is a fervent Trump supporter, refrained from turning the tragedy into a blame game against the Democrats and Biden as did some of her Republican colleagues:

I am praying for President Trump and his family. No one will divide this nation as long as we are united under God and our freedoms secured. We will persevere and those responsible will be held to account for their cowardly act.

Vasquez cast a wide net in his reaction, avoiding any temptation to inflame the moment: 

Gun violence has no place on our streets, in politics or in the democratic discourse. As information continues to unfold, let me be clear that I strongly condemn acts of violence against anyone, regardless of political party. I wish President Trump a safe & speedy recovery as well as anyone involved in this incident.

Herrell and Vasquez could not be more different in their personalities. The southern congressional district is also like night and day--half rural and half city; half pro-Trump and half pro-Biden. Thankfully the candidates turned down the temperature in their reaction to the deadly weekend violence. Keeping it turned down is incumbent on them as they venture into an already heated battle in the months ahead.

Heinrich & Monahan

Sen. Heinrich came with a statement that bumped up against the often rancid discourse infecting contemporary politics:

In the coming days, I urge all of us to engage in political conversations with a renewed sense of respect and understanding. We have the power to change the tone of our national discourse. Let us lead by example in our conversations, both online and offline. Now, more than ever, we must remember that our political opponents are not our enemies. They are fellow Americans, with their own hopes, fears, and dreams for this country. Our democracy depends on our ability to disagree without demonizing one another.

The hope is that such statements resonate and that future generations are able to enjoy the benefits of this great democracy and not witness its demise.

WARP SPEED POLITICS

Politics operates at warp speed these days. Uncertainty seems the only certainty and solid predictions of the future are often folly and the terrain of the arrogant. So, with those yellow flags of caution waving we take a look at the possible ramifications on the upcoming election (with the assistance of our Senior Alligators) caused by the attack on former President Trump.

Most of those we spoke with were humble enough to admit they are waiting for the polls to give them some guidance as the aftershocks from Saturday reverberate. 

A polling bump for Trump is expected by most of our observers--at least for a couple of weeks--considering the rally around the flag tendency in moments of national crisis as well as from the GOP national convention that kicks off today. 

But there are structural components to state politics that are not given to crumbling and that underpin the election even in the aftermath of this latest political earthquake. Let's take a look:

In the toss-up Vasquez-Herrell contest, Vasquez will be looking for any impact on independent voters that are essential for Herrell to convince to join with her Republican base which is expected to be galvanized by the Trump attack. 

While GOP voters may become more enthusiastic to vote for their presidential nominee, Democrats could be galvanized by raw fear as speculation rains down on them that New Mexico might vote for Trump. 

The absence of a well-oiled Republican machine is a major impediment for them to take advantage of any change in the environment that could attract conservative Dems and independents. One of our Dem Senior Gators points out that Republicans have basically been banished from the state. There is no infrastructure for them to generate a comprehensive campaign. 

Also, national chatter that New Mexico could be in play for the GOP may be raising fears among rank and file Democrats but it is not being matched by most knowledgeable and experienced professionals here who note that Democrats far outnumber Republicans and after all these years are not suddenly going to become Trump voters.

The question arises of whose opinion changes because of this tragic event? In New Mexico there is a cemented vision between pro and anti Trump voters. There are few undecided. That makes for slight ticks up and down in the polling but not large shifts. 

--The long-shot GOP play, according to former state legislator and longtime political consultant Greg Payne, is a huge burst of enthusiasm among Trump supporters and a substantial drop in Democratic turnout. 

The Biden camp said before the shooting say they will continue to follow a "let the chips fall where they may" strategy for our state. They believe that if New Mexico were somehow to get in play it would mean the race is already lost in the key battleground states where they will be concentrating their efforts. 

HEINRICH VS. DOMENICI

In the US senate race Nella Domenici remains in a tough spot, argues analyst Payne. 

She's not running the type of campaign that could take maximum advantage of a jump in Trump's support. She has said she is not seeking his endorsement or offering hers to his candidacy. That's in addition to not saying whether she will vote for him. Now seems the time for her to pivot to a more friendly Trump stance and have less concentration on her father's service as a US senator. 

Heinrich has a good first month, thanks to Domenici not attacking him and forcing him to spend money early. His traditionally cautious approach is not yet being upset. Domenici will have to do something to force him to move out of his comfort zone.

THE SPECIAL 

Suddenly the special legislative session the Governor called on crime and set for this Thursday in Santa Fe has become more interesting as one of the most notorious crimes in the nation's history has just taken place and sure to cast a shadow over the Roundhouse.

The problem is the Governor getting late momentum on the short list of bills she has proposed aimed at curbing the state's stubbornly high crime rate. After weeks of wrangling with key lawmakers with little success, that opportunity may have passed.

A key House committee chair, Rep. Christine Chandler of Los Alamos, is warning that two of the top measures being pushed by the Governor may have to wait until the next regular legislative session in January: 

. . . She’s not sure that criminal competency and civil commitment can be addressed within the limited time frame of a special session. The criminal competency legislation doesn’t have a “strong nexus” to reducing crime rates, she said, representing about 4% of criminal cases. She called current competency laws “out of date” and “inadequate.” “But they’re complicated issues. When you’re talking about committing someone with a mental health issue, that’s a big deal. That is something you don’t do lightly.”

MLG has been a leader on gun violence throughout her career but the sole gun bill for the special is to extend prison time for felons caught using a gun committing a crime. That would seem to have bipartisan support and perhaps could be bundled with others that are not controversial and salvage the session from an ugly breakdown.

While MLG has been criticized for breaking tradition and not brokering a deal with lawmakers before calling the special (at least not yet), a coalition of progressives asking her to cancel the session because her proposals infringe on liberties, also share blame for the stand-off. As one of our Alligators put it:

Joe, the progressives say don't bother. Just stay home. That's because they have no solutions, only criticism of the Governor who is at least trying. 

Well, the session will certainly be more interesting now--if not more productive.  

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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