Is the southern congressional district race a true toss up? That the rematch between Republican Yvette Herrell and Dem Re.  Gabe Vasquez will be close is not in doubt. But the one and only public poll thus far of  the race--commissioned by the national Republicans and showing a 48 to 46 edge for Herrell--doesn't tell the whole story especially after all the national political turmoil of late.

In fact, one noted DC area pundit--Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball--now have the race rated "lean Democratic" and out of the toss up column. 

We' haven't seen a specific explanation of why Sabato does not rank the race a toss up as does the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, the other closely watched DC handicappers, but this statement from his most recent newsletter indicates the importance of the presidential contest in all the House districts:

The party that wins the presidency probably will end up winning the House majority too, although the margins in the House are so tight that a split outcome is not out of the realm of possibility. 

As we've previously pointed out the southern district that Biden ran and lost to Trump in 2020 is gone. A new redistricted seat is on the presidential ballot for the first time. If you take the borders of today's district and pit Trump and Biden against one another, Biden wins the seat by nearly 6 points, reversing Trump's 12 point win there in 2020 and perhaps Herrell's victory that year over her Dem rival.

The addition of VP Harris may be the key for Sabato and others seeing a slight tilt toward Vasquez. As a woman of color she is expected to run better than Biden would have in heavy Hispanic precincts in Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties where 50 percent of the total district vote is expected to come from.

Vasquez will face vigorous attacks from Herrell but his hole card will be that favorable outlook for Harris-- if it holds.

If the vice-president wins the district it will be more difficult for Herrell to prevail no matter how good of a campaign she runs. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

We wrote on the Monday blog that we would be with TJ Trout on KKOB radio that afternoon but that was the wrong date. Today is the correct date so join us at 5 p.m today for an hour of the very latest in La Politica.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

Here's a pic of the weary ABQ police chief apparently nodding off during Gov. Lujan Grisham's town hall on public safety Monday evening (or perhaps deep into the mysteries of his phone) symbolizing how Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico feel about the never-ending prattle from the political class about the ongoing crime crisis.

That "crisis" is now years-long and probably needs to be relabeled the new normal. As long as fentanyl continues to flood the metro there appears to be no end in sight. The latest:

A daring chase involving two carloads of FBI agents on Albuquerque’s West Side turned even more dangerous when the fleeing suspect allegedly dumped an estimated 10,000 loose blue fentanyl pills onto the roadway and kept driving. A SWAT team leader with the FBI finally had to call off the pursuit near Central and Atrisco NW on July 18 because it was too dangerous, according to a criminal complaint. Agents quickly blocked off a street to secure the loose fentanyl, which had exploded from a cardboard Corona beer box when it hit the pavement. Nicholas “Youngster” Mares, 22, ultimately was arrested on July 25, and is being held in federal custody until trial.

Wild stuff and it's not as if the Feds aren't trying. The arrests of the notorious leaders of the Sinaola Cartel in El Paso being the latest example. 

So the town halls drone on, resembling five hour group therapy sessions for the Governor, law enforcement and crime victims but have little bearing on actual crime-fighting. 

The public cares deeply about crime but has grown numb and hungers for leadership that comes with a platform that is new and actually has a chance of working. They will awaken if and when they hear it. Meanwhile, does someone have a pillow for the Chief?

MLG AND CRIME

Before the ABQ town hall the Guv gave an interview with a lot of long-winded answers. We hear from her first and then from a Senior Alligator critic at the Roundhouse: 

MLG: Albuquerque is impacted by the fact that 16,000 cases since 2017 have been dismissed for competency. These are cases that go before the court system 30 or 40 times a year. This represents about 3,300 unique individuals who are committing serious felonies. 

If [the Albuquerque Police Department] is chasing — and they are — all these calls over and over and over again, you can’t do preventative community policing. It interrupts your ability to do patrolling. It’s creating road rage. .  The kind of basic disregard for public safety. . . in communities like Albuquerque is making it impossible for a city or a county to do it by themselves, unless there are more tools available. That’s why we’ve got state police in Albuquerque

We need to get more shelters up. But remember, far too many people won’t seek treatment on their own, or if they are getting treatment and support, don’t stay in it long enough and it’s creating this kind of permissive environment. We are seeing open fentanyl use on our streets, drug dealing, solicitation, human trafficking. Go to any corner, broad daylight — God help you if you’re out there at night. It’s horrific and we can’t get in front of it unless you have the tools on the back end. That’s what the city needs, which is why city councilors support the measures I brought before the Legislature. It is why the mayor stands with us, the district attorney, the sheriff, the police.

Now a rebuttal from the Roundhouse:

Despite now almost ten hours of town halls, never once does she or anyone else discuss the specific bills and their deep flaws as the result of poor legal writing and inevitable constitutional defects. She's surrounded by non-lawyers who don't read the actual bills or understand what those bills say and mean. 

The Governor doesn't have the interest or patience to actually read and understand the bills she touts. She's never burdened by worrying about the constitutional issues which invariably lead to lawsuits and injunctions. The best example is her multiple gun orders that were struck down in court. The Governor doesn't concern herself with constitutional limitations to her powers, takes the momentary achievement and glosses it over when she's struck down in court.     

Three of her five bills at the special session would have been struck down in court and accomplish nothing other than employment of lawyers. The data sharing bill she proposed is already law and would accomplish nothing more. The felon in possession of a gun penalties have been increased five times in the past six years under two Governors--with no demonstrable reduction in crime. At the ABQ town hall she again touted a presumption for pretrial detention which the NM Supreme Court would certainly strike down as unconstitutional. 

On competency, yes, we need to find a solution to criminals simply released time after time. The legislature write laws but ultimately the discretion will belong to judges. It is the judiciary that is the key to addressing crime. The bench now is very liberal and progressive on crime. Ironically that is the result of appointments made by this Governor. She has appointed 4 of the 5 Justices on the Supreme Court and over half the sitting trial judges in the 13 district courts.

As far as this being primarily an ABQ problem, data shows crime is not as significant a problem statewide. The judge who gave testimony to the legislature said competency of a defendant is at issue in less than 5 percent of his cases. 

When we are in this crisis we should triage and attack the most significant problems and offer the most consequential solutions. The Governor's bills on panhandling, homelessness and competency are not remotely the most significant issues. Gun violence is. So why was that not in the special session?

We're told the Governor will soon undertake an overseas trip and after that hit the campaign trail for VP Harris and the Dems. 

The crime debate will continue in the legislative races but in a sign of growing political incoherence the Republicans will be supporting the Governor's crime bills while Democrats back away from her.

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There won't be much argument about this poll from the national Republicans showing the southern congressional district contest close to a dead heat. 

The margin of error in the poll taken among 400 likely voters July 11-14 is plus or minus 4.9 percent, enough for each candidate to make a plausible case for their election. 

Former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell and Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez, who unseated Herrell in 2022, are both awaiting polling revealing how VP Harris polls in the district. The presidential candidates will have a major influence in the race. 

Herrell may expect even more enthusiasm for Trump with liberal Harris leading the Dems in the often conservative district. Vasquez may be looking for a similar reaction in the ABQ South Valley and his hometown of Las Cruces where Harris is expected to run strong.

Herrell's recent focus on Vasquez' character has Dems paying attention. Their opposition research showed that Vasquez in 2004 allegedly used the N word during a dispute with an employer and that he also had unresolved traffic infractions for driving without a license and without insurance in 2002 when he was 18.

Reports here, here and here.

Vasquez denied ever using the N word. He settled the traffic citations in March by paying a bond. His attorney said Vasquez was never notified of the outstanding citations and took care of them when he became aware of them. 

There has been no nonpartisan public polling yet conducted in the race which the Cook Political Report in DC and others rate a toss-up.

NOT DESPERATE ENOUGH

Our recent blog about school vouchers and the high cost they have come with in Arizona drew this from NM columnist Michael Hays In Las Cruces:

Joe, you write, "With a last in the nation ranking in the performance of its public schools, New Mexico is desperate for solutions." 

Vouchers, smaller classrooms, smaller schools, charter schools--all of these and others are deck chairs, as if there is a technical fix to the deficiencies of education. Education is primarily a transmission of information and skills from those who possess them to those who do not. Everything else is ancillary. 

Nevertheless, New Mexico is not desperate enough to consider: (1) the curricula in all major academic subjects, (2) the quality of teachers and the qualifications for teaching, and (3) the schools of education. 

English, the most critical of all subjects, has a curriculum which is chaotic. On the literary side, it is not comprehensive or historically representative. On the grammar and composition side, it is not taught or, if taught, not properly sequenced for cumulative acquisition of knowledge and skills. 

In general, teachers are united against raising standards and against allowing competent people with relevant backgrounds into the profession (e.g., retired writers/editors, healthcare workers, or military personnel). Schools of education focus on achieving socially desirable goals, not ensuring their enrollees' academic preparation for the courses these graduates will actually teach. Instead, in its desperation, New Mexico spends money on reckless ventures which have not or have not yet proven their worth and proven their fit with what exists.

Even if early childhood education--Headstart writ large--were to work, its good effects would be lost when students proceed into grades K-4, to teachers whose students fare poorly on standardized proficiency tests in reading and math, and no better on such tests four years later. Understandably, in a Democratic state, with teachers unions' support needed for re-election, few politicians have the courage to undertake the necessary steps to actually improve public education with "tough-love" reforms. So what remains is pious hand wringing, higher taxes, and little to show for either. 

JOIN THE PARTY

Reader Rick Lass, a longtime Green Party member, updates us on third parties and the NM presidential ballot:

 Hi Joe, One more addition to your list of minor parties from last week. The Green Party is also ballot qualified in New Mexico. They submitted their petitions over a year ago. Jill Stein is the presumptive nominee. The national Presidential Nominating Convention will be Aug 15-18.

Major Parties (Qualified Political Parties in New Mexico) are Democratic Party of New Mexico Libertarian Party of New Mexico Republican Party of New Mexico. 

In New Mexico, only major political party candidates will appear on the Primary Election ballot. 

The Minor Parties (Qualified Political Parties in New Mexico) are Free New Mexico Party, Green Party of New Mexico and Party for Socialism and Liberation of New Mexico.

Robert F. Kennedy has qualified as an independent candidate for the NM presidential ballot. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

MLG had a well attended town hall in Las Cruces focusing on public safety and another is scheduled for today at 5:30 in ABQ at CNM Smith Brasher Hall (streamed here) but to what end remains ambiguous. 

The legislature adjourned their special session without taking action on her crime agenda and which led her to castigate lawmakers, saying they should be "embarrassed" and leaving her future working relationship with them in question. 

Adding to her woes is the absence of many swing legislative seats on the ballot in November. That loss of leverage at the polls is shadowing her town halls, especially if they are meant to put campaign heat on her fellow Dems. 

MLG heard from dozens of people who recounted their experiences with crime in the Las Cruces area. 

She did not veer from pressing her failed legislative agenda but refrained from attacking the legislature. (Full video here).

This is not a first term governor enjoying widespread support. The ACLU and other groups opposed to her agenda urged their members to attend the town halls and they did so in Las Cruces with some voicing opposition to her special session agenda which the progressive groups were key in defeating.

The town halls take place against a background that has more legislators believing that the crime crisis is mainly an ABQ problem and that the mayor, police chief and city council here are going to have to resolve matters--as they have in the past. 

Las Cruceans expressed frustration to MLG about slow response times by police which is also a problem in ABQ as officer shortages plague police agencies across the nation.

POSSIBLE PATH

DA Bregman

There is one aspect of the crime wave that MLG could tackle to put a dent in it and also resurrect her political fortunes but it did not come up at the special session or at her town hall.

That path was outlined by Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman when he testified at a legislative committee hearing before the special session, pointing out the explosion in juvenile crimes committed with guns and came with a specific set of proposals.

The acceleration in youth crime was again on display Friday when a 17 year old was arrested for shooting a security guard at ABQ's Coronado Mall, the state's largest and where this fourth shooting there in the past year has made the mall a danger zone. Then there is the teen-led mayhem that has frozen progress in Downtown ABQ. 

Here's Bregman: 

In the last 18 months Bregman said he has indicted 20 juveniles for murder--all but one facing a first-degree charge. "That is absolutely unacceptable--that 19 children are accused of murder in the first degree and there are 20 lives gone because of them," Bregman said.

Bregman asked lawmakers to consider a series of code changes, including automatically treating teens between 14 and 18 as "serious youthful offenders" if they are charged with first-degree murder and adding a few other serious violent crimes, 

He also wants the law changed so youthful offenders are automatically transferred to an adult jail when they turn 18 and to make it easier for prosecutors to use juvenile records during release hearings. He wants to extend the length of possible supervision for juvenile offenses until age 25 rather than 21 and to make it a fourth-degree felony, rather than a misdemeanor, for someone under 19 to possess a handgun.

Bregman also wants the law banning possession of a handgun by someone under 19 expanded to cover all firearms, including long guns. Currently, he, said, possession of an AR-15 or AK-47 by someone underage is not necessarily illegal. 

That's a crime agenda that with the Governor's support might find a warmer legislative reception and actually make more of a difference than the one rejected at the special.

The certainty of being caught is the most effective deterrent to crime, according to experts. Bregman's plan does not get directly at that nagging issue but it does address it half-way by giving teens with guns second thoughts before they put their fingers on the triggers.

MLG FACES NATION 

The Governor made her first broadcast comments on the presidential race since her controversial remarks htat she was concerned about New Mexico slipping away from President Biden. Now that VP Harris is lined up to replace him she says the state is "re-energized" for her and that polling shows Hispanic voters are now much more supportive. Here is the full interviewi she conducted from Santa Fe Sunday with CBS' Face the Nation, including remarks on the border"

 ROBERT COSTA: We go now to New Mexico's governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is a member of Vice President Harris' campaign advisory board. 

ROBERT COSTA: We know you're with the vice president. You're a hearty supporter on her advisory board. But I want to begin with the news of the week for history, which was, President Biden's decision to exit the race. You were on a call with President Biden and Democratic governors a few weeks ago where CBS News reported that you expressed concern about the president's performance at the time and whether he was able to win. Can you tell us what exactly you said and what were your concerns to help us understand why this week played out as it did? 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: Well, I don't know that any of my statements had anything to do with what's played out, but it is clear to me, or was then, that there was a shift. And New Mexico is a bellwether state, you know, with the largest percentage of Hispanic voters per capita in the country, and that there was a bit of a, if you will, stalling out. And that I found very concerning. That was confirmed by national polling that had Biden beating Trump by 1 percentage point among Hispanic voters. And since his personal decision to certainly put democracy first, I will say, I'm seeing a re-energized, particularly with young voters, with I think is now playing out in national polling, showing Harris beating Trump with Hispanic voters by 19 percentage points. 

ROBERT COSTA: How is Vice President Harris playing out on the issue of immigration and the border in your state? Of course, a border state. You heard Senator Graham earlier in the program, he just kept coming back to the issue of the border with Vice President Harris. Are Democrats ready to counter the Republican attacks, and are you confident that she personally can address this issue in an effective way for New Mexico? 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: Well, let's do a couple of things. First, I'm going to answer the question. Yes. There's renewed enthusiasm because what the Hispanic voters here want is a prosecutor who's got a history in a border state, dealing with border and immigration issues that can cause risks, like her prosecution successfully of transnational gangs on drugs and guns. But they also want someone who is going to be balanced on immigration policy. And that's what the Biden-Harris administration brokered with Congress. And this is the second time we've seen Trump and his cast of characters be really clear, they don't want immigration reform, they want fear, they want division, they're going to continue to demonize Hispanics and Latinos and immigrant communities. And you know what they see? They see someone who's tough, fair, balanced, pragmatic, and somebody they can relate to in terms of her own family. That motivates Hispanic voters. 

ROBERT COSTA: Senator Graham called Vice President Harris the border czar. That wasn't her title. She was given responsibility to deal with the root causes of migration when it comes to the border. Your voters in New Mexico, I've spoken to them. They see you as a straight talker. What's your grade, straight talk, politically speaking, of how she handled the issue of migration during the last three and a half years? 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: Well, as a straight shooter, thank you, Robert, thank you New Mexico voters. We have to be engaged in better diplomacy in Central America and South America. She did that very effectively. And, in fact, we had meetings of the Americas and Latino leaders from south of the border, and those have been incredibly promising. They're trying to create a label that really belongs squarely with the president and Stephen Miller themselves. They want to be dictators. They want to be dictators on the border. They want to demonize immigrants. They have been incredibly racist. They're gaslighting. And they have done absolutely nothing on the border that makes any sense. In the last administration, they want to do mass deportation. Here's something that I think is really important and telling about this issue. Right now, border crossings are as low as they've ever been. Certainly lower than they were in the Trump administration. And we've seen a 55 percent decrease. And we've seen the right public safety activity at the border in this administration. 

ROBERT COSTA: But what about more Border Patrol agents? There has been reported, including a leaked phone call, of you speaking about, you need more from DHS, you need more Border Patrol. You've been positive about the administration so far in this conversation, but you've often have been urgent about your need for more resources at the border. Does this administration need to do more for you and your state in terms of allocation of resources and agents or not? 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: They do. And they're going to get that opportunity if Republicans in Congress weren't directed to make sure that they did not do anything to pass a bipartisan border deal that put 1,500 more border patrol and 1,200 more ICE agents. You bet. And the shift of border patrol by President Biden into ports of entry is exactly what we needed so that we can focus there and then you minimize, right, you can't seek asylum if you're not coming in a port of entry. That gets at coyotes and those inappropriate crossings. So, they both did something based on my urging, and they're on the right side of this new border deal. Which will get done when Harris is president, we take the House and we keep the Senate. 

ROBERT COSTA: And on the search for a running mate for Vice President Harris, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, from the Sun Belt, your region of the country, is at or near the top of the list based on our reporting. How much of a help would it be for Arizona, for New Mexico, to have someone like Senator Kelly on the ticket? Would you recommend he's picked by Vice President Harris? 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: 

Well, my recommendations really shouldn't matter. This is a personal decision by candidate Harris and the vice president. And I respect that she's going to make a perfect balanced ticket choice. But look, this is one of the highest per capita enlisted and veteran communities in the country, New Mexico. You've got a veteran, you've got an astronaut, you've got someone who's got a very strong public safety record, you've got someone who understands the West, when understand water. It's not just immigration. He would be an incredibly strong pick. You know, the very first images from space were captured from New Mexico in the '40s. This would be a very strong pick. But she's got a really deep bench, which is, I think, another really important facet in this race. The Democrats have people who are ready to move the country forward. She's about progress and the future, and Trump is about none of those things. 

ROBERT COSTA: Governor, we really appreciate you taking the time. That didn't seem like an endorsement of Senator Kelly, but something close to it. We - we'll have to check in. 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: Well - 

ROBERT COSTA: Well, something close - it was a positive - 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: He knows I love him. Come on. He knows I love him. 

ROBERT COSTA: All right. 

GOVERNOR MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM: All right. 

ROBERT COSTA: All right, Governor. We'll be right back. And thanks again. (ANNOUNCEMENTS) 

NELLA'S  QUANDRY

Domenici

Republican Nella Domenici took a sharp turn toward the farcical last week when she refused to do an interview with TJ Trout on KKOB radio, even after he submitted in advance the questions she would be asked. 

Her campaign went into overdrive to deflect Trout's fundamental queries as irrelevant. They included:

Was Joe Biden legitimately elected president of the United States?

Do you still support Trump following the events leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol?

Those questions have been asked of candidates thousands of times in the past three years but Domenici has now not only refused to answer them but also to say whether she would be casting her vote for Trump. 

She has said she is not seeking Trump's endorsement and does not plan on giving him hers.

Her campaign came with this spin on the refusal to do the Trout interview:

Domenici is focused on much bigger issues than worrying about Trout. New Mexico is in a crisis. We are last in education, jobs, yet first in crime and high grocery prices. Our campaign is focused on these issues New Mexicans have to deal with every single day. We have no time for radio hosts who want to insert themselves into the narrative and ask questions that play well on MSNBC but have zero relevance in New Mexicans’ everyday lives. There are key issues that need to be addressed on Day 1 if we have a shot at turning our state around. Let us know when Martin Heinrich wakes up and starts talking about any of those.  

Former ABQ city councilor, attorney and veteran campaign consultant Greg Payne pointed out the peril of Domenci's plight for not answering Trump-related questions:

It’s not like TJ Trout is Rachel Maddow or Morning Joe. If you can’t handle his show, you’re not remotely ready for prime time.

Now that Domenici refuses to answer Trump questions she will only be asked more of them. Her explanation is anathema to Republican voters who prize loyalty to Trump and make her look weak and indecisive to other swaths of the electorate.

This is her effort to be an independent candidate but still cloaked in Republican red. She continues that theme in her latest TV ad in which she highlights how her late father, NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici, worked with liberal Dem Sen. Ted Kennedy to come up with solutions to mental health issues. The transcript: 

NELLA: My younger sister was an incredible scholar athlete. One year later, she was diagnosed with schizophrenia. So many, many people don’t want to talk about mental illness.

ANNOUNCER: Nella and her family have dedicated their lives to addressing this crisis, working with a bipartisan task force to better integrate mental health into primary care, focusing on better care and resources to tackle these issues without stigma or shame. 

NELLA: And find better solutions for the many, many people suffering.

Domenici and Heinrich will have only one TV debate--in October on KOAT and also sponsored by the Journal and KKOB radio. (Hey, maybe TJ can be on the panel and ask his questions again?)

The Senate candidates will also meet in debate in October at ABQ's Congregation Albert on a Sunday morning to be announced. That debate is not expected to be televised.

Domenici may have missed a beat when she did not question the limited debate schedule:

Heinrich’s policies on crime, the border, the cost of living and green energy at the expense of oil and gas have created crisis after crisis, and hardship after hardship for New Mexicans. I look forward to speaking for the New Mexicans who I have met traveling across our state, and contrasting how our common sense solutions will make our state and nation better. It’s time we demand more.

As the decided underdog shouldn't Domenici be clamoring for more debates with the two term incumbent? Well, with all those uncomfortable Trump questions lurking less may indeed be more in this case.

Heinrich said the debates will show that. . . 

While I have a record of delivering real results — like capping insulin prices for Medicare enrollees, securing unprecedented investments in early childhood education, and cracking down on the fentanyl supply chain — my opponent has spent her career making millions of dollars for companies that sold out working families.

US SENATE ANALYSIS

Heinrich

Domenici's campaign making the assumption that even a lukewarm embrace of Trump is not needed in order for her to consolidate the Republican base threatens GOP participation that could be deadly. 

Her coziness with Ted Kennedy only exacerbates that problem as she clings to the belief that there is a large core of centrist voters who will come to her side and elect her.

The miscalculation could be that her candidacy rises above today's hyper-partisan politics like her father's often middle of the road but long ago Senate service. 

The problem is that there is not enough focus on Heinrich as her campaign spends too much time and money on her and is now getting tangled up in her inconsistency. The paid attacks on Heinrich should have already begun.  

Using her dad as a launching pad for her campaign was understandable, but continuing to lean on him when the guns of August are about to fire is like using a spear against a bazooka. Someone's going to get hurt.