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Thursday, August 29, 2024

Reader Vox Populi: They Write Of ABQ Dystopian Crime Scene, Getting Broadband Out The Door And The Passing Of A Famed NM County Clerk  

This long-awaited edition of Reader Vox Populi kicks off with a contribution from reader Brian Fejer and his dystopian journey from one end of ABQ to another.

Greetings Joe, Great local coverage! This Kamala Harris voter says cheers to (US Senate candidate) Nella Domenici for spotlighting the epic failure of Mayor Keller and the ABQ City Council when it comes to the ongoing fentanyl epidemic in the metro. 

Domenici is right on when she states, "The night belongs to the addicts and the criminals."  Has she seen ABQ in the day? 

I recently drove down Central Avenue from Tramway to Downtown. There were hundreds if not over a thousand of unhoused, the addicted and the mentally ill at every intersection, every bus stop. At no point did I see see a single APD officer, ABQ Community Service staffer, ABQ Ride Security or even a police service aide at any point. At the same time the Mayor was patting himself, APD, and ACS on the back for doing everything they can on this issue. 

I voted for Mayor Keller twice, but he’s lost all credibility. If you call 311 or 242 COPS – after being on hold for 5 – 15 minutes, they can only dispatch for one single person, not thousands. The next mayor of ABQ will need to be proactive on this crisis, not reactive. This city is in dire need of new leadership. 

Most Governors and Mayor’s on the west coast have gotten the message! CA Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed an executive order and is helping to clean up encampments. The Mayor of Portland declared a fentanyl emergency. The Mayor of Los Angeles declared a homeless public health emergency. Phoenix has been court ordered to clean up encampments. The US Supreme Court has ruled that local municipalities can indeed enforce their criminal codes and laws. 

Public relations stunts are not leadership and that is all the Mayor, the Police Chief, and the City Council have. The New Mexico GOP is a clown show – we don’t have an opposition party. 

INTERNET SOAPBOX

Our soapbox continues to get a workout when it comes to advocating for the state Broadband Office to start deploying satellite internet service in rural New Mexico instead of taking years to string expensive fiber to every remote area, many of which are barely reachable. We have an ally in reader Jim McClure: 

Joe, I’m glad to see you turning a spotlight on the state’s cumbersome approach to broadband deployment. The excuses for delays in broadband deployment outlined by the New Mexico Office of Broadband Access and Expansion (Broadband expansion is no high-speed fix) illustrate why government agencies are increasingly unable to build things. 

The article claims that legal processes and government permits will delay construction for years. You’d think a state government agency could streamline a process that politicians describe in moonshot terms, but apparently New Mexico’s broadband office is powerless to move things along. The biggest reason for the delay is that New Mexico chose a technology – optical fiber cable – that requires more construction, money and permits than the wireless technology that now accounts for a growing share of broadband deployments. 

Fiber cable works well but requires running a cable to every single house. This is economical in cities and suburbs but expensive and slow to install in rural areas. Newer technologies are doing the job faster at lower cost in other states. Wireless systems are now competitive with optical fiber, using transceivers on utility poles to beam the Internet to an antenna on each house. 

Another wireless option is offered by cell phone companies that deliver broadband through their network of cell towers. If you’re in a hurry, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite broadband service deployed Internet service to war-torn Ukraine in a matter of days. But New Mexicans have to wait for years while the Office of Broadband Access and Expansion gets permits to dig trenches for fiber cable. 

Today’s technology offers a variety of options to build a hybrid network with a mix of optical fiber, wireless and satellite systems. If the state government was serious about building a network instead of building a bureaucracy, more New Mexicans would have Internet instead of excuses.

We second the motion, Jim. 

REMEMBERING A CLERK

Lynn Ellins
Longtime Las Cruces journalist Walt Rubel remembers one of the more famous county clerks in state history who died on May 30:

Lynn Ellins, 87, will be best remembered as the first county clerk in the state to have the courage to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples in 2013. As he explained at the time, Ellins wasn’t trying to make a social statement about same-sex marriage. He was simply trying to apply the law as he and his staff believed it to read.

“The state’s marriage statutes are gender neutral and do not expressly prohibit Doña Ana County from issuing marriage licenses to same-gender couples,” he said. “Any further denial of marriage licenses to these couples violates the United States and New Mexico constitutions and the New Mexico Human Rights Act.”

The issue had been tied up in the courts, but the move by Ellins proved to be decisive. More than 40 couples received their licenses the first day, with marriage ceremonies conducted by former county public information director Jess Williams, who had routinely performed the same ceremony each Valentine’s Day for other couples.

The U.S. Supreme Court settled the issue in 2015.

Ellins had already established a distinguished career in law and politics before moving to Las Cruces. He had been legal counsel to a New York State Senate committee, a member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents and deputy Colorado secretary of state, along with working in private law in both New York and Colorado.

In 2002, both County Clerk Ruben Ceballos and Chief Deputy Clerk Aurelio Enriquez were arrested on criminal charges related to their mishandling of the primary election that June. They faced 14 charges including improper shredding of absentee ballots, demanding illegal fees and conspiracy. Ceballos was convicted of five felonies. . .

I don’t know if the sad state of affairs in that office had anything to do with luring Ellins back into public service. What I do know is that his two terms as clerk, from 2009 to 2016, brought a level of professional competency to the office that had been sorely lacking before his arrival.

Ellins was then elected to the county commission in 2018, and served as chairman for two years. He lost  his re-election in 2022 when he was 85. . .

He provided critical leadership on local issues for nearly two decades. He brought integrity to our elections and respect to all of the offices he held. And he had the humanity to end the wait for couples who were eager to begin the rest of their lives together. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

In our report about the possible contenders for state House Majority Leader Wednesday we omitted the name of Santa Fe Rep. Linda Serrato. And ABQ Rep. Joy Garratt confirms that she is not running for the post. The new leader will be chosen by the House Dems following the November election to replace Rep. Gail Chasey who is retiring.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Political Potpourri: Race Shaping Up For State House Majority Leader, Scuttlebutt Over Challenge To Speaker Martinez Heard And Tight Las Cruces House Contest In Store 

Some political notes to start with today. . . 

The race is on to replace House Majority Leader Gail Chasey of ABQ who retires from the Legislature at the end of the year. Four names are circulating for the position that will be decided by the House Democrats following the November election. They are ABQ Reps Day Hochman-Vigil of the NE Heights, Joy Garratt of the Westside and Snata Fe Rep.Linda Serrato. Rep. Eliseo Alcon, who represents Cibola and McKinley counties is also said to be weighing a bid. His thinking being that if Hochman-Vigil and Garratt split the ABQ votes, he might have a shot at the number two House leadership position. 

Will House Speaker Javier Martinez be challenged for re-election as Speaker after the election? Scuttlebutt has been heard for several months that progressive women in the 45 member House Dem caucus could make a move against Martinez who took over the position in January of 2023. Insiders say a challenge is far from a sure thing this cycle but could come in the future. They say Santa Fe Rep. Reena  Szczepanski, House Majority Whip and an acolyte of former House Speaker Brian Egolf, could be the challenger. 

But Speaker Martinez's supporters say he has been a strong leader, commanding respect from the caucus, standing up to the Governor when necessary and having the back of his members. Martinez, an unabashed progressive, made a bold move when he announced that he would support all of his caucus members--conservative and progressive--at the June primary election. Several Dem conservative reps lost to progressive Dem challengers and that is probably stirring the pot over the speaker's future.

SOUTHERN SHOWDOWN

Silva and Winterrowd
Community organizer Sarah Silva of Las Cruces is the latest progressive woman trying to make her way to the Roundhouse but she will have to fend off a strong GOP challenge.

She was picked as the new nominee over two other contenders by eight State Dem Central Committee members from House District 53. She replaces Jon Hill, who won the June primary, but passed away from cancer. 

Silva says she raised $10,000 in the immediate aftermath of that vote but Republican and special ed teacher Elizabeth Winterrowd, who lost a close race (51-49) for the seat two years ago to Rep. Willie Madrid, is back and last reported over $50,000 in cash. 

The seat is one of the few swing seats left. It covers the eastern part of Doña Ana County and a slice of Otero County. Progressive Hill, who defeated the conservative Madrid in the June primary, endorsed Silva before his untimely death. Republicans are already calling Silva a "Socialist" as they try to snatch the seat.

NOT A PHOTO OP?

Forbiddden photo?
That scathing commentary on ABQ's fentanyl and crime problem in the SE Heights from GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenci, who spent time touring the area with APD, had the Mayor's office reacting. Not about  the commentary but on the photo of her with APD officers sporting their official department patches. They say that is a campaign violation:

Her team made a rookie mistake by posting photos with APD's patch. The photos were not authorized and should never have been posted. She should have known better. Our lawyers are notifying her to remove the photos from her website. It violates APD's SOP 1-1-6E which states: "Prohibited political activities which include the following... F. Using Department-issued equipment to engage in political activity" and the Hatch Act. 

The City does sometimes accommodate ride alongs for candidates, but the photo was not authorized, especially not to be used for campaign materials. The department as an organization cannot and does not endorse political candidates, and the photo could give that perception. 

We asked Domenici's campaign for a comment but they did not respond. Her photos with APD officers remain on her website.  (The photos were gone by mid-morning Wednesday).

CHIEF MEDINA UPDATE

In a first draft Tuesday we quoted APD watchdog Dan Klein as saying the city ought to force Medina to be personally responsible for his legal fees in a lawsuit brought against the city Tuesday by the seriously injured driver of the car that Medina rammed into at a February accident. 

But even if Medina was found to have caused the accident, his legal fees still have to be paid for by the city, says ABQ attorney Tom Grover who has defended police in multiple cases

Medina has caused the city major exposure to liability because of his actions. Because his acts were “official” the city will have to indemnify him for his liability. 

Under a change to the City Charter approved by the City Council this year and that will be voted on this November, the Council would need to approve the firing of the Chief by the Mayor:

The Police and Fire Chiefs may only be removed from office for cause by the Mayor for any reason. The Police and Fire Chiefs may also be removed or with an affirmative vote of two-thirds plus one of the entire membership of the Council after cause has been determined by the Inspector General.

Seven of the nine Councilors would have to approve of a Chief's firing, if the amendment wins voter approval. The current Charter does not expressly say how or whether the Mayor can fire the Chief, although mayors have not been reluctant to fire them in the past and without Council approval.

And. . .We had APD Chief Medina retiring in March of next year. Not so. As we reported on April 14, Medina announced he will retire in December 2025, after the November '25 mayoral election.

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Tuesday, August 27, 2024

APD Spin On Crime Stats Spotlighted And Chief Medina Excuse For Failing To Turn On Body Camera Is Called Out; Councilor Files State Complaint, Plus: Nella's Night Out  

ABQ police are pushing the envelope as far as possible as they try to persuade the public that crime is actually going down in the city. Their latest effort didn't work out so well:

APD says there was a 15% drop in individual robberies. There was also a 39% drop in attempted robberies, and a 51% drop in commercial robberies. But what is the difference between a robbery and burglary? Commercial robberies – the crime APD says is down 51% – happen when businesses are open. According to APD data, the number of burglaries are actually up 15% compared to last year.

Of course it's the epidemic of burglaries, especially at night when businesses are closed and when cops on the beat are short, that is much more of a worry than the less frequent attempts at daytime robberies.

Then there's this latest bizarre story involving APD Chief Harold Medina. 

He told APD internal affairs investigators that he failed to turn on his lapel camera following an accident last February in which he ran a red light and rammed into a vehicle causing the driver serious injury because he was invoking his Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate himself. 

SAY WHAT?

Mayor Keller & Medina
Say what? That's the question former APD sergeant and watchdog Dan Klein had upon hearing of Medina's explanation:

New Mexico law requires an officer to turn on their body camera and failure to do so is a violation of state law NMSA 29-1-18.  "

An explanation of the Fifth:

You can always refuse to talk to federal agents or the police. But the 5th amendment right to remain silent is only triggered in “custodial” situations. If you are free to leave or stop the questioning at any time, that would not be considered a “coercive setting” for purposes of the right to remain silent.

Medina appears to have knowingly violated state law and therefore should bear the consequence. Remember, most of the APD officers involved in the DWI scandal were not in custody when they invoked their 5th amendment right and were terminated by Medina. Think about that. 

ABQ attorney Tom Grover, who often defends police officers, adds:

It blew my mind because it's so preposterous. The notion that he has a Fifth Amendment right would suggest that he's in custody. He, the police chief, is in custody and, therefore, is required to make a statement. He's not in custody. He's at work.

Chief Medina has previously said that he will be retiring in December 2025, after the November '25 election.

MORE MEDINA FALLOUT

Sanchez
Meanwhile City Councilor Louie Sanchez--who happens to be an ex-cop--is taking action over Medina's body camera mishap:

Councilor Sanchez announced he submitted an LEA-90 to the NM Department of Public Safety which is a formal request for an investigation into the conduct of Chief Medina stemming from the February accident. 

This request comes in the light of Medina's admission that he intentionally and purposefully did not activate his ORBD camera when involved in police action. Such action by Medina appears to violate (state law) which requires police officers to wear and record encounters with citizens. The Law Enforcement Training Act (Section 29-7-1 through 29- 7-16), grants the Board with the powers and duties to refuse, suspend or revoke certification of a police officer for just cause as provided under the Law Enforcement Training Act and Board Rules. 

"As the chief law enforcement officer of the state's largest police department the chief should hold himself to a higher standard than that of his rank and file, not lower. We are at a crossroads where officer morale is at an all time low and public trust might even be lower." Councilor Sanchez stated. 

 NELLA'S NIGHT OUT

The ABQ crime explosion again took center stage over the weekend when three homicides occurred in one hour in or near downtown early Sunday morning.

On the campaign trail, candidates are working to connect with voters on the continued gun violence and the fetanyl crisis. 

GOP US senate candidate Nella Domenici took to the streets to get a closer look. This report is from her campaign: 

“Simple crime statistics, while alarming, don’t convey the human suffering and lives destroyed by fentanyl. This evening spent with police officers redoubled my commitment to secure the border.  We have to stop the flow of fentanyl that is devastating our neighborhoods.

Domenici learned that fentanyl pills cost less than 30 cents apiece and are extremely easy to obtain. She also spoke to a neighbor who is sick of the crime that is so pervasive in her neighborhood. Her backyard is littered with discarded tin foil from fentanyl users, and stolen purses stripped of credit cards, cash, and any other valuable belongings. 

“I saw block after block of people openly smoking Fentanyl from foil wrappers. They wander the streets like zombies. They sleep in alleys only to wake and repeat their addictive behavior until they overdose and die.” said Domenici. "Many are malnourished and dehydrated with sores on their skin. They prostitute themselves, and commit crimes, some violent, to support their addiction. The night belongs to the addicts and the criminals because everyone else is afraid to leave their homes."  

"The night belongs to the addicts and the criminals." Sad but true. 

Domenici also released this ad on crime and fentanyl

THE BOTTOM LINES

The Daily Show had some fun with MLG's short speech at the Democratic National Convention, rolling their eyes when she declared that New Mexico was "el fugeo" (on fire) over the coming campaign. That portion of the video begins about nine minutes in.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson made a stop in Las Cruces last week on behalf of of southern GOP congressional candidate Yvette Herrell who is trying to unseat Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez. Johnson said of the race: "We have a tough district here." After a poll showing Vasquez running nearly 10 points ahead (see Monday blog) that may be an understatement. 

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Monday, August 26, 2024

Monday Monster Blog: Emerson NM Poll Sees Dems Coming Home; Heinrich Opens Large Lead Over Domenici; Harris Handily Beats Trump; Vasquez Outpolls Herrell; MLG Approval Rating Slides, And: Top Issues In New Mexico  

The Democratic nature of New Mexico is starting to show. 

In the first major poll by a top-ranked firm Democrats have begun their march home to their party of choice. 

Earlier polling has sent mixed messaging but the survey from Emerson College, ranked #9 in the nation among nearly 300 polling firms by the 538 analysis site, gives us a clearer picture of where we may be headed on November 5. 

The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent, was taken August-20-22 among 965 registered voters on cellphones, landlines and online. 

Emerson poll summary here. Complete survey here

The poll took place during during the Democratic National Convention so there may be a bump for the majority party which is the argument Republicans will make.

But the survey also comes after the Biden withdrawal and the Harris ascension that has given Democrats fresh enthusiasm.

Overall we think this survey will be similar to the trends that the respected Research and Polling survey will find when it conducts their polling for the ABQ Journal.

Dem consultant David Alcon, like others we asked, believes there's been enough time for voters to digest the national political changes and the major local races: 

Joe, I feel this survey is accurate. The southern congressional race may be tighter because of the Dems post-convention bump but it's well on the way to being closed out. The Republicans will need to double down on the negative there and they will. Overall Democrats appear to be sticking with their brand represented by Harris/Walz. Some Hispanic men have slipped but women are overwhelmingly on the Dem side.

Emerson says the poll consisted of 43 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans and 26 percent independents. That's in line with state registration numbers (with independents a bit higher) but strong GOP turnout could increase their percentage of the electorate.

HEINRICH BREAKS OUT

Sen. Heinrich

Let's get to the poll and begin with the Senate race. 

It was just last Wednesday that we were blogging about how Heinrich had not yet put away his Republican opponent and how that could hurt any 2026 Governor aspirations he may have. Those aspirations may still take a hit but this new polling puts him on a solid path to re-election.

Emerson has Dem Senator Martin Heinrich with a nearly 12 point lead over Republican Nella Domenici. He leads 49.2 to 37.3 percent with 4.3 percent saying that they would vote for "someone else" and 9.3 percent undecided. 

That's much better for Heinrich than earlier surveys that had Heinrich in the low 40's. But the results are the same for Domenici who has struggled to reach 40 percent in any survey. 

Domenici has raised plenty of money (she has donated $1.5 million of her personal fortune) but her hesitancy to hop on board the Trump train in order to appeal to Democrats appears to be costing her with R's and not doing much good with Dems.

Also, Heinrich launched early negative ads against Domenici that are generally seen as effective in holding her back.

The poll is a blow for Domenici as she works to persuade the national Republicans to get more heavily involved in the race, although the national party has helped some in the early going. 

Heinrich has run a "running scared" campaign, even bowing out from appearing at the Dem national convention, attacking Domenici from the right over her hedge fund's association with "communist China" and repeatedly circulating polls in fund-raising missives that show a tighter race.

The unusually high 20 percent of voters that said they were undecided in some previous polls are gone in Emerson's survey and now at 9 percent.

Emerson pushed the undecideds in the presidential survey to say which candidate they "leaned" toward. It is not known if they did the same in the Senate race but that would be one explanation for the drop in undecideds from previous polling. 

DOMENICI STANDING

We asked a Senior Alligator for analysis:

Martin knows he has a decent lead but is trying to raise as much money as he can as Nella's personal wealth could come raining down in the final months. 

As the incumbent Heinrich is closer to his final Election Night number. Domenici has lots of room to grow but she has been on a slow learning curve. 

She first refused to say whether Trump was correct in stating that the 2020 election was stolen and has had trouble dealing with the tricky abortion issue. 

Last week she finally agreed that the '20 election was not stolen. She first refused to answer that question posed by the Roswell Daily Record and KKOB radio's TJ Trout. She has also come with a TV spot stating she does not favor a national ban on abortion but remains quiet on her stance on other key aspects of the abortion debate. 

Her attempts at building a middle ground approach are in a state that has grown more Blue and polarized since her father, Pete Domenici, held a Senate seat over 15 years ago. 

PREZ RACE

In the presidential race Emerson has Harris leading Trump 52.2 to 42.0 percent with 5.8 percent undecided. Harris’ lead decreases to eight points when the undecided voters are asked who they lean toward. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris leads by 11 points, 51% to 40%, while 3% support Robert Kennedy Jr.

Trump has lost New Mexico twice--by 10.79 percent in 2020 and by 8.22 percent in 2020.

Harris' lead is slightly better than the six or seven points Biden was beating Trump by in the polls before he withdrew.

Trump's 42 percent signals he has consolidated the conservative NM base--something Domenici has not yet done--but he once again faces a Blue wall as he tries to go much higher. 

This poll points to New Mexico voting for the Dem presidential ticket for the fifth election in a row. 

CONGRESS ACTION

The top of ticket Harris strength is good news not only for Heinrich but for Dem Reps Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez who are both far ahead in their races, according to Emerson. The presidential race has impact on the down ballot contests.

Stansbury is beating Republican Steve Jones of Roswell 51.0 to 36.7 percent with 12.3 percent undecided.

In the northern seat Rep. Leger Fernandez receives 51.8 percent while Republican Sharon Clahchischilliage polls at 39.4 percent. Undecided is at 8.8 percent.

VASQUEZ VS. HERRELL

Herrell and Vasquez
It's the southern congressional district--CD2--where the Emerson poll raises eyebrows. 

Rep. Gabe Vasquez has a nearly 10 point lead over Republican Yvette Herrell. He polls at 50.3 percent to her 40.5 with 9.2 percent undecided.

This is the first important public polling in the race and casts the southern congressional contest as lean Democratic instead of the toss-up contest seen by most pundits. 

We pronounced the race "lean Dem" earlier this year and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has the same ranking. This poll is going to influence future pundit rankings.

Herrell has started the tricky task of going after the character of Vasquez who has had some minor run-ins with the law but that Herrell is working to sensationalize. 

The major policy issue is the southern border which favors Herrell and abortion which favors Vasquez. 

This is still the race to watch this cycle. The southern district is known as tough to poll. But a 10 point edge, even if wrong by half, can't be ignored. 

The district became more Democratic under the redistricting. Biden would have carried it by six points if he had run in the new boundaries in 2020. So a lead for Vasquez makes sense but Republicans question a lead this large.

Outside interests are still expected to spend millions on TV ads to influence the outcome. They've already started.

The 2024 results could settle the question of whether going forward the district belongs in the toss-up or lean D column. 

MLG POLLING WOES

Tim Walz and MLG
We've been warning of the second term curse for MLG and it is now indisputably here in all its glory or infamy.

40.9 percent of the electorate in Emerson approve of the job the Governor is doing while 48.4 percent disapprove and 10.6 percent are undecided. 

The MLG results are bad but not horrible, but that is of little comfort to the Governor who will now be even more encouraged to try to get a job with Harris, if the VP can win the November election. 

If Harris loses, two more years of MLG bickering with the Legislature and more alienation from the public is probably in the cards, just as it was for previously cursed second term Governors Martinez and Richardson.  

WHY THE SLIDE?

From our window we see our current Governor's unpopularity resulting from the never-ending ABQ crime wave; the increase in homelessness; the anemic economy--especially for middle and low income New Mexicans; the ongoing failure of CYFD which regularly makes sensational and negative headlines; the continuing disappointing outcomes in education and last but certainly not least, the recent collapse in her relationship with the Legislature as seen at the failed July special session on public safety. 

Her low approval provides the GOP with hope that they can be competitive in the 2026 Guv election but they are still searching for names with gravitas to take on that uphill task. 

Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland and Sen. Heinrich are mentioned most in political circles as possible '26 Dem Guv candidates.

TOP ISSUES

Joe Monahan
So what are the top concerns of New Mexico voters going into the fall campaign? The new poll cites the usual suspects. 

The economy is the top issue for 29% of New Mexico voters, followed by crime (18%), immigration (13%), education (11%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (6%), and threats to democracy (6%). 

“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 54% to 38%, crime, 47% to 45%, and immigration 89% to 9%. 

Voters who find education, healthcare, housing affordability, threats to democracy, and abortion all break for Harris significantly, an average of 82% to 15%.”

Emerson has put in the polling foundation for what's to come in the next two months. Will that foundation be shaken by still unknown events? 

As always, stay tuned. 

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