Thursday, September 05, 2024Waiting For Another Foot To Drop In Herrell-Vasquez Race; First Major Polling Showed Dem Powering Ahead; Will The Next Confirm The Trend? Plus: Continuing Coverage On Speeding Up High Speed Internet Access For Rural New Mexicans The numbers quickly snuffed out the off the wall speculation that somehow Trump--who has lost two races here--could now be competitive; that the US Senate race was actually tight and that the southern congressional district remains a toss up district when it is now lean Democratic. That's a mouthful to digest for even the hungriest of political pundits who now await confirmation of the trends Emerson found but perhaps with less of an enthusiasm gap between the two major parties. They will get that confirmation--or nonconfirmation--later this month when ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff goes into the field. He tells me the first Journal poll (two are expected for the cycle) will be published September 15 with the results of the presidential and US Senate races. The main point of discussion--if not contention--about the Emerson survey taken Aug. 20-22 during the Democratic National Convention is over the nearly 10 point lead (50.3 to 40.5%) that Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez held over Republican Yvette Herrell in the southern congressional district. Sanderoff has long pointed out the difficulty of polling the sprawling and heavily rural area but in 2022 legislative redistricting added a large swath of Bernalillo county's South Valley and Westside to the district. Combined with Dona Ana county these Democratic leaning urban areas are where more than half the vote will come from in the Herrell-Vasquez contest. And those urban areas are easier to survey. While few expect the Journal to show Vasquez with a ten point lead, the enthusiasm of Democrats, particularly women for VP Harris, seems to be the wind at his back and giving him a decent lead. Vasquez won a nail-biter over Herrell in 2022 (50.31% - 49.67%). He was--by the reckoning of consultants on both sides--a weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit. Herrell has come up some new attack lines over Vasquez's character that voters are not familar with but unlike '22 she now appears to be fighting a wave of enthusiam by Democrats for their party and abortion rights. Vasquez's foibles do not seem as crucial as she might hope. A PERMANENT LEAN?
If the Journal poll shows the battle closer--with Herrell not behind by more than four points--the race will be reheated. If not, the Democratic lean of the district will be affirmed and New Mexico will be on the way to losing its only swing congressional district. Sanderoff and the Journal will have an easy time of it with the other races. The Emerson survey has been enough for national and local political consultants to close out the presidential race here in favor of Harris; to put the US Senate contest firmly in Heinrich's corner; the ABQ congressional seat safely in Rep. Stansbury's hands and ditto for the northern congressional district held by Rep. Leger Fernandez. But politics is about surprises and what seems assured today can quickly turn. We can't say we're not hoping for some as we settle in for yet another final 60 day campaign stretch. SATELLITE INTERNET (CONT.) More of our continuing coverage now on why the state Office of Broadband, the Legislature and the Governor need to start rolling out high speed internet access much faster in rural New Mexico and do it by utilizing satellite service and other high speed alternatives to laying fiber which is taking years and years and putting New Mexico's kids at an educational disadvantage. Here's reader Dan Warren who has been helping us track developments: Joe, You are right about Starlink being a quick solution for internet service in rural areas. I have been very satisfied with the service which I have had for about 1 1/2 years. The internet is fast and being able to make good quality phone calls using WiFi calling is great.
Longtime satellite internet provider Viasat may be feeling the pinch brought on by Starlink. I used to pay $127 for their mediocre service and now I think they are down to $99 a month. Several companies are gearing up to provide cell phone service that will connect directly to a satellite, so you will be able to make phone calls from the middle of nowhere where cell towers don't exist. Here is a link to a story on Space News. Thanks for tuning in here this week. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   Wednesday, September 04, 2024Dumped At The Altar Again? Alarm Bells Grow Louder over Maxeon Solar And Promise of 1,800 Jobs At Mesa Del Sol; Stock Still Crashing And Management Mum On FInancial Future; Mayor Keller Hopeful But Hedging Maxeon Solar, pledging a $1 billion investment and 1,800 jobs and subsidized to the tune of $600 million in cash and incentives from state and local governments plus millions more from the feds Inflation Reduction Act, continues to crash and burn on the US stock market. Tuesday Maxeon management warned that it can no longer offer any guidance about its financial future. Maxeon was down 21 percent in Tuesday's trading (at 8 cents a share), approaching the lowest (ever) after reporting Q2 revenues of $184 million, down 47% from the prior-year quarter, and saying it expects Q3 revenues will "decline significantly" due to "intense competitive pressures, subdued distributed generation market demand, project delays and order cancellations. . . and an unpredictable policy environment." Maxeon (MAXN) said it is no longer able to provide financial guidance for Q3 and is withdrawing full-year guidance for revenues and is not conducting a conference call to discuss Q2 results. We warned of possible trouble ahead when on August 13 of last year Gov. Lujan Grisham and ABQ Mayor Keller announced Maxeon's plan to manufacture solar panels here. The stock crashed 32 percent on that very day. And in that blog we also reviewed the many failed solar development efforts for Mesa del Sol preceding Maxeon, including the flame-out of Schott Solar and Advent that cost government here oodles of dollars in tax incentives. And now there's been further reporting on the possible collapse of Maxeon's plans as economic planners helplessly stand by awaiting a final outcome. Maxeon still has a slice of hope of recovering. Ironically, the Singapore-based firm has now essentially been taken over by a Chinese company that is pumping millions into their reserves. Ironic because it is the dumping of low-cost solar panels by China into the US that has been hammering solar manufacturing. But that Chinese backing could be a problem for Maxeon as it awaits approval for a nearly $2 billion loan from the US Department of Energy to build the ABQ manufacturing plant. Without that loan Maxeon will get a gravestone next to Advent and Schott on the south ABQ mesa. DUMPED AT THE ALTAR?  I have to say we've been so burned by these companies (in the past). . .We are just dumped at the altar all the time. What's changed is the Inflation Reduction Act. . . These companies that manufacture in Asia. . . it now subsides them to manufacture in America especially for green products like solar panels. . .All these companies are trying to move back to America and we have a thesis about (ABQ) being a manufacturing, renewable energy hub. . .It was just too expensive for them to take advantage (of what the city offers). We've been positioned to win this fight for decades but now we can deliver because of that Inflation Reduction Act. That said, I really am not going to celebrate until there is a shovel in the ground. We've done everything as a city. . . So it's all up to the company. If they go bankrupt they're not going to come. But we now have two. The scale is so big. . . if one of the two (companies) actually does what they say they are going to do that is the same amount of jobs and infrastructure as when Intel came in the 80's and that literally created modern day Rio Rancho. Now that there are two irons in the fire I gotta believe that one is going to work. New Mexico's romance with borderline companies that demand massive taxpayer subsidies in exchange for coming here is legendary and a poor substitute for true economic development. Maybe at least there will be a valuable lesson learned if these latest solar examples flame out. But judging by the past, maybe not. POLITICO PRESIDENTS Reader Frank chambers writes of our Tuesday blog reporting on Public Education Secretary Arsenio Romero stepping down to pursue the presidency of New Mexico State University: Joe, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels was selected as Purdue President by a board mostly of his appointments. Burns Hargis stepped down from the Oklahoma State Board of Regents to be appointed president. A rule that one had to be off the Board for one year was waived. That's bad news for education all around, including Romero's case. Romero served on the NMSU Board of Regents before becoming Sec. of Education. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 03, 2024MLG Loses Another Education Chief But This Time She's Not To Blame; Arsenio Romero Abandons Ship; Seeks Top NMSU Job And Gets An Alligator Strike Over It, Plus: Lots Of Free Rides To Roundhouse
Secretary of Education Arsenio Romero was MLG's fourth. A superintendent of Los Lunas schools before joining the cabinet, Romero is going full-on turncoat against the Governor after raising hopes that he was finally the fella who would start to reshape the state's often failing public schools. Instead of sticking around and fighting it out for kids who need a fighter, Romero is resigning and making a play to become the new president of New Mexico State University, an institution rife with incompetence at the top and where Romero only recently sat on the school's Board of Regents that will pick the new president. The Guv's office said pick one or the other and Romero chose to get out of PED. Remarked a Las Cruces reader: MLG wasn't the only one to fall for Romero who she appointed in early 2023. We also held his hand as he fought overwhelming odds to lengthen the school day in New Mexico, a fight that continues in the courts. It was a game-changing play but to Romero it turned out to be just a game. So much for his pledge upon taking office that he was in the struggle to better our public schools for "the long haul." ALLIGATOR STRIKE ON ROMERO Readers with inside knowledge of PED were merciless in their reactions to Romero's jumping ship. Here's an example: Joe, Romero was announced as one of five finalists for the NMSU job but it feels like he’s got the inside track. Given his close personal connections to the Regents and their chief of staff, Adam Cavotta, he will probably land the position paying $500,000 a year or more. Until just last year, Romero himself served on the Board of Regents, from 2020 to 2023. Are the Regents doing a backroom deal in selecting him? Is it a conflict of interest? Does it even pass the smell test? The bigger question: Is he qualified? As Secretary of NMPED, he showed no leadership to address failings discovered in 80 plus internal audits. NMPED is known to be in a state of internal chaos under his watch. Educational programs run by non-profits and others that are supposed to receive regular and ongoing funds from NMPED (to pay staff and rent) complain that they do not get them because of NMPED’s widespread fiscal mismanagement. That’s all on Romero. When you’re already 50th in the nation, how can you let these things happen? And why would NMSU, with all its many well-publicized problems now be handed over to Romero’s incompetent care? Running a university is more complicated than his current job which he shows no aptitude for. So is this a case of old fashioned cronyism? Romero won't the be the last public servant to act callously and in his own self-interest but his abandonment of the welfare of the children of New Mexico especially stings. He now scampers off to try to gain admission to the rat's nest that has become NMSU's leadership circle. Arsenio, for turning your back on the children of New Mexico you are the victim of an Alligator strike. Congrats. . . or something. BOYD'S BEAT With Labor Day in the rearview mirror the campaign season goes into high gear. Back on the beat after a year on leave is longtime ABQ Journal capitol reporter Dan Boyd. As he preps for election coverage, he notes the lack of competitiveness in so many legislative seats: The road to re-election will certainly be an easy one for many lawmakers this year. With all 112 legislative seats up for election, 51 incumbent lawmakers — out of 85 total incumbents seeking a new term (65 percent) — do not have opposition in the November general election. In the Senate, 19 of the 26 incumbents seeking re-election do not have general election opponents. The percentage of unopposed lawmakers is slightly lower in the House, as 32 of the 59 incumbents who are running to keep their seats are unopposed. One of the reasons for the lack of contested races could be New Mexico’s increasing political polarization, as Democrats have claimed nearly every legislative seat in the state’s urban centers of Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe over the last decade. Like the rest of the press pack Boyd is on the hunt for exciting races to cover but changing demographics, redistricting and other factors have combined to make New Mexico essentially a one party state. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. |
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