Elaine Sena Cortez

Progressives dominate the state's agenda but New Mexico has hardly moved the needle on the myriad of social woes that plague the state. All the while Republicans have lost ground as we blogged about Tuesday. Now comes a damning indictment of the progressives from soon-to-be state Rep. Elaine Sena Cortez of Hobbs who won the Republican primary in House District 62 and has no Democratic opposition in November. Here's her column:

Our governor and the progressive majorities in the state Legislature don’t appear to be interested in offering workable solutions at a time when our state is facing the worst violent crime rate in the country; our public schools are consistently ranked last for student success; the crisis along our southern border has created a fentanyl epidemic that is killing too many New Mexicans; generational poverty threatens the long-term future of our families; and abused and neglected children are failing to receive the protection they deserve. I believe progressive Democrats are wholly responsible for these problems since they have controlled the Legislature and the governor’s office for the last six years, yet they want to talk about one issue: abortion. 

There is something fundamentally wrong when the party charged with leading our state refuses to address the critical issues facing our state but has no reluctance to base their quest for political power almost solely on the backs of the unborn. For far too long, Republican candidates have stayed silent regarding abortion and have hesitated to engage their progressive opponents on this sensitive issue. In turn, this silence has permitted progressives to define Republicans as being anti-women or not caring about women’s health care issues. 

Unfortunately, this false narrative perpetuated by progressives has allowed them to take total control of the state and enact a devastating agenda that has made our state unrecognizable. Abortion is an issue that requires real conversation: Should there be restrictions around viability? Should parents be notified if their minor child has an abortion? Should women be given all the information about available resources when making tough pregnancy-related decisions? Should taxpayers have to pay for something with which they morally disagree? Should New Mexico taxpayers be footing the bill for out-of-state residents to obtain abortions here? The repeal of Roe v. Wade returned these and other policy questions to the states. 

ONE TRICK PONIES

Progressive Democrat lawmakers, however, have refused to consider any of these important questions. As a result, they have made New Mexico an abortion capital of the U.S. Progressive Democrats have become one-trick political ponies, touting abortion every chance they get, so they don’t have to address the other crises in our state. 

If New Mexico voters continue to choose progressive candidates this November, then they have no excuse to complain about our failing schools, our neighborhoods becoming crime battlegrounds, our children suffering abuse and neglect, our crumbling health care system and opportunities for our kids and grandkids disappearing. They will have proven that their all-abortion, all-the-time strategy is all that’s needed to maintain their failed leadership. Our state cannot afford a Democratic-controlled Legislature that continues turning a blind eye to every issue except abortion. It is time to have real discussions about the issues facing our state, all of them. 

OUR THOUGHTS

Sena Cortez effectively indicts the prevailing powers but what she and Republicans would do differently and in a manner that finds support in a mainly nonconservative electorate remains on the table. 

Also, her call for a "real conversation" on abortion bypasses the fact that an overwhelming majority of New Mexicans are not interested in further discussing abortion. They are pro-choice and supportive of the status quo. 

The conversation needed on abortion is within the confines of the Republican party and how it proceeds to shed itself of a strident opposition that has made possible the "one trick pony" politics that have been so effective for Democrats at the ballot box. And not so effective in governing mode. We'd be interested in hearing more on that from Sena Cortez but her approach to abortion seems unyielding and hyperbolic, the same characteristics that have chased voters here away from the GOP.

Still, Sena Cortez does confront the core questions that faces Santa Fe: 

How can billions of dollars in excess revenue not be making a major difference in the quality of life of so many New Mexicans and where is the accountability?

Sena Cortez is a business consultant and holds a doctorate degree in business administration from the University of the Southwest in Hobbs where she also teaches.

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Tim Walz and MLG

If she sticks around two more years her approval rating could be in danger of sliding below 40 percent. That's where two term Governors Richardson and Martinez ended up. 

For now the Sept 6-13 ABQ Journal poll shows MLG scores a 45 percent approval rating with 44 percent disapproving and 11 percent with no opinion.  

That compares to the Emerson College Poll of August 20-22 when 41 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved of her performance. 

The Guv's approval in the average of the two polls is 43 percent. 

The impact of her slide down the polling pole revealed itself at the July special session that she called on crime and that was met by the Legislature turning their backs on her and ignoring her bills.

Paid media was put out in an effort to persuade lawmakers to pass her agenda but to no avail. Similar  results can be expected if she tries again in January. 

The Governor and lawmakers would be well-advised to finally put the crime problem squarely on the laps of those where it belongs--the mayors and city councils of ABQ and Santa Fe where the crime wave is centered. The media would be advised to do the same.

Of interest in the latest poll is Lujan Grisham's 48 percent approval rating and 42 percent disapproval in ABQ, the epicenter of the crime crisis. 

That a plurality here still approves of her seems to signal that they are not assigning all the blame to her for the crime wave. And they shouldn't. It belongs, as it always has, with our local leaders whether they be in Albuquerque or Abiqui.

With the polls sucking the drama out of the major races, the subplot of MLG getting a job with a Harris administration and Lt. Gov. Howie Morales then taking the helm is keeping the chattering classes fueled. 

Would a Governor Howie of Silver City stick his nose into the ABQ crime nest? Not if he was paying any attention to what his boss has gone through these past six years. 

BIDEN APPROVAL 

President Biden manages only a 44 percent approval rating in the Journal survey with 48 percent disapproval. Sen. Heinrich, favored for re-election, nonetheless freaked out over Scranton Joe's poor standing this summer and was one of the few senators to call on him to not seek re-election. Whether Biden not getting made much of a difference for Heinrich will never be known but he's doing just fine with Harris as the nominee.

MLG AND PROGRESSIVES

Longtime reader Paul Roybal comments on the Guv's standing:

Joe, If following the Governor's lead involves a photo-op in front of a homeless camp in Albuquerque, you're right—many progressives may not fully align with that approach. In her "we know we can do better" speech, she seems to suggest that addiction and behavioral health issues arise from homelessness, rather than contribute to it. Some progressives also feel that her "my way" governing style leaves little room for collaboration.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Senate hopefuls Nella Domenici and Martin Heinrich sat down for separate 25 minute interviews with KRQE recently. The duo has one TV debate scheduled--on KOAT October 14. . . 

ABQ Mayor Tim Keller says he will announce his run for a third term early next year. . . 

There's still no plea deal in the corruption case against fromer state House Majority Leader Sheryl Williams Stapleton who pled not guilty to 35 charges including conspiracy to defraud the United States and multiple counts of bribery and money laundring. The case began in July 2021. A trial is now scheduled for March 2025.

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The near death experience delivered to their presidential and US senate candidates in the first '24 ABQ Journal poll has Republicans wondering what it will take to get back to the winner's circle or even on its edge. The answer, according to a mix of GOP loyalists we've  heard from, is a lot. Here's a list:

--Trump will have to go away before the NMGOP can really rebuild. His appeal in the cities is limited and the need for a different national leader is apparent. But if he wins in November he's going nowhere and that will complicate GOP chances in Blue New Mexico.

--Abortion must also go away. Women remain on the march over reproductive rights, boosting enthusiasm and turnout in a majority Democratic state that is crushing the opposition party. 

---Fresh faces to carry the party banner, preferably more Hispanic faces. The R boosters point to Nicole Chavez, their District 31 ABQ House candidate, as a future template even though she was defeated in her first legislative outing. She lost a family member to murder and brings the crime issue to the fore which is generally a winning issue for the GOP. (Vicky Estrada-Bustillo is the Dem candidate in District 31.  

--Speaking of crime, GOP wise men say somehow the public must become more galvanized over the issue. Ditto for the economy and jobs. If those two issues could dominate the narrative, they believe their chances would rise. 

--With Trump and Nella Domenici on the canvas, GOP worriers say concentrate resources on legislative races. The state House lost three conservative Dems in the primary. Now it's up the GOP to counter more progressive politics.

--Conservatives, not necessarily Republicans, say the way out of the wilderness is to put some points on the board next year in the races for mayor of ABQ and Santa Fe where ongoing crime waves continue to shock the senses. In 2021 ABQ Republicans backed a conservative Democrat for mayor in hopes of turning the tide. They may do so again.

--Redistricting. R's argue the 2021 redrawing of congressional and legislative districts is a large reason for the pickle they are in. They are looking all the way to 2031 for a reprieve when the districts are drawn again, but they will have to have a Republican governor to get a break.

NELLA'S DILEMMA

Domenici

It's not impossible for Nella Domenici, but becoming a Wall Street multimillionaire was a breeze compared to what she now faces in winning the open Senate seat. 

Her 38 percent showing versus Sen. Heinrich's 50 percent in the ABQ Journal survey threatens her fund-raising and could force her to dip further into her large personal fortune which she has already tapped to the tune of $1.5 million. 

More important, the race appears gone unless she can force some kind of error out of Heinrich. But his inner circle is probably advising him to spend the rest of the campaign out of the country and let them handle the rest.

Heinrich is not blowing the doors off. History says Domenici will be on the move more than him in the coming weeks as undecideds come to her.

She is not a forlorn candidate by any means and reaching the base GOP/conservative vote of around 45 percent is very possible. That's getting closer to the top of the mountain. The problem remains the five percent needed to take the summit--if she makes the leap to 45.

One question being asked in light of Domenici's inability to dent Heinrich so far is whether she will pull a Ronchetti, meaning if she loses to Heinrich will she turn around and run for another office as TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti did following his 2020 US senate loss. 

History is not promising in that regard. Ronchetti also lost the 2022 race for Governor.

THE PROJECT

Apodaca

Whether the NM Project will have to report their donors and expenditures remains up in the air but it appears the group could still be a presence in this campaign. 

An ABQ District Court judge recently ruled that the Project, founded by businessman Jeff Apodaca to advocate for issues of importance to Hispanic voters, must disclose who is giving the PAC funding. But Apodaca continues to argue that under federal guidelines the PAC is not required to do so.

Here's the reason the Project may still be involved in the campaign. 

There is a hearing set for next Monday to hear arguments on whether the PAC should get another hearing that would include witness testimony and not be held in contempt of court. Even if the judge rejects that request, and it's likely he will, the Project has said that it will appeal to the state Court of Appeals and if need be to the state Supreme Court  Court. The legal wrangling would allow the Project to continue advocating for issues and publicizing candidates who say they support those issues until a final resolution that would not come until well after the election. 

The PAC is not permitted to endorse candidates but that's what the State Ethics Commission says they are doing and filed the complaint against the Project that is now in the courts. 

Apodaca says the legal fight has hampered his fundraising. Still, he is confident there will be enough business-oriented donors to send a moderate message on jobs, healthcare and other issues into close state legislative races that are seen as close.  

THE BOTTOM LINES

 In our first draft Monday we reported that the Dems need the Rep. Vasquez seat to keep the majority in the US House. The Dems are in the House minority. They need the Vasquez seat to help take the majority. Also, the undecided in the US Senate race is 9 percent not 12 percent.

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Is it back to the future for Donald Trump in New Mexico? 

In 2020 Joe Biden put Trump away here with a ten point win (54-44). In the ABQ Journal poll released Sunday and conducted September 6-13, Kamala Harris sports a ten point lead over the former President, 49 to 39, with 5 percent for other candidates and only 7 percent undecided. Four percent said neither.

Obviously the poll does not bode well for Trump which is not surprising. The state has long been a solid Dem member of the electoral college, awarding its five electoral votes to the Democrat since 2008. 

The Journal US Senate Race poll was released Monday and confirmed Sen. Martin Heinrich's lead over Republican Nella Domenici that other polls reported. The Journal has it 50 to 38 for Heinrich with 9 percent undecided and four percent choosing neither.The race is rated Safe Dem and we'll have more on it this week but today we look at the prez polling.

Harris leads in all geographic areas except the conservative Eastside. 

Men support Trump 46-44 while women go for Harris 54 to 33, a massive 21 point margin. 

That lead among women emphasizes the importance that abortion will again have on voting behavior as well as Harris' rapid acceptance here since replacing President Biden on the ticket. But Dems will be lucky to see her campaign here as her time is consumed by the seven swing states that will decide the election.

The margin of error in the survey is plus or minus 4.2 percent. As usual, the Journal used live interviews of likely voters which is the most reliable method, according to pollsters.

The more ominous side of the poll for the GOP is in the southern congressional district where Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez faces a stiff challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell. But how stiff when Trump is poised to lose the state by a wide margin and based on the poll's geographic results could lose the Vasquez district?

Trump only leads on the conservative Eastside 54-36 but ongoing population loss there has weakened its muscle. And much of it is no longer in the 2nd CD. In the Southwest region that includes Grant and Hidalgo counties Trump loses 46 to 42. 

The 2021 redistricting of the district no longer lurks. It is staring us in the face. 

Biden would have carried the present district boundaries by six points in 2020. Pollster Brian Sanderoff says the presidential race will have a strong influence over who wins the congressional race as well as the few swing legislative districts on the ballot this year. 

Most critically, in the ABQ metro, which includes the ABQ South Valley that is now in the Vasquez district, Harris commands a 54-38 lead. Herrell may be closer than that in the heavy Hispanic Valley where voters can sometimes tilt conservative, but is it enough to win a solid majority that she appears to need there to overtake Vasquez district-wide? 

She will give it her all and has reason to believe that she can still pull it off. Among Hispanic voters statewide the Journal poll says Trump polls at 36 percent. That's a good showing for a GOP contender. In 2004 George W. Bush received about 40 percent of the Hispanic voters here, a high water mark for the GOP. 

AN INSIDER TAKE

A Democratic operative with inside knowledge of the campaign reports that the 2nd CD contest remains close with Vasquez ahead. They inform: 

It's close. He is up. He has a lot more money than her. And she seems to be running the old playbook against him that didn’t work. At this point he wins by 3-4. 

Vasquez has a two to one money lead over Herrell but both parties are coming with large pots of outside cash that is keeping her fueled in the competitive race. 

The Journal will not poll the race until late October.

An Emerson College poll aken Aug 20-22 had Vasquez with a lead of 50-41. That poll now appears to reflect the optimum outcome for the Democrats but with Trump's back against the wall here the Dems have to be encouraged as they battle to keep the New Mexico seat so critical to them to taking the majority in the US House.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Inside Politics with Nathan Gonzales continue to rank the Vasquez-Herrell contest a Toss-Up. The University of Virginia's Larrry Sabato has it Lean Democrat. 

ABORTION DIVIDE 

Herrell (NYT)

We've reported on how Vasquez has tried to walk the moderate line on so many issues but is now anything but moderate when it comes to abortion. The freshman lawmaker is betting heavy that an unabashed pro-choice stance will take him across the finish line. The NYT Sunday took a look at how that is playing out:

"(The Republicans real agenda is to) block women’s reproductive health care,” Vasquez told about 50 people at a groundbreaking for a new, $10 million state-funded reproductive health clinic. “We’ve seen the consequences of what this means for women.”. . . He has worked to use Herrell’s anti-abortion rights voting record and previous remarks on the issue against her, including a 2020 video clip in which she said during a Republican candidate forum: “I wish we could have eliminated all abortion in this state.” 

Ms. Herrell, unlike some Republicans who have airbrushed or downright misrepresented their past records on the issue, says she is proud of her stance on abortion, including her backing for legislation that would grant legal personhood to fertilized eggs, effectively criminalizing the termination of a pregnancy and potentially aspects of in vitro fertilization treatment.

MAYOR WHO?

Speculation is starting to percolate in Santa Fe over who will run for mayor next year. Current Mayor Alan Webber is keeping folks guessing on whether he will seek a third term while other possible candidates start to pop up. We met up with the New Mexican as the name game takes off. 

(Is it safe to say that Councilor Michael Garcia is about to come in and that Webber will eventually opt out? We think so. And will a surge in City Different crime be the #1 issue in the race?. . . You betcha.)

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