The writing may not be on the wall yet but the lead sentences of New Mexico Campaign '24 are being etched.

With widespread early in-person voting set to begin October 19 and with precious little time after that to change the campaign narrative for the November 5 election, here is where we are at.

PRESIDENT

As in '16 and '20 the presidential race here made political hearts flutter early but that has long since faded. Harris is expected to beat Trump here by six to ten points. The state lost its swing status in presidential contests back in 2008 but that is still a tough pill for many to swallow.

The 538 site curent track puts the race here at 54.4 percent for Harris and 45.7 percent for Trump, a lead of 8.7 percent. In 2020 Biden beat Trump here by 10.79 percent.

US SENATE

This race has also fallen into the solid Dem camp after a brief kerfuffle over its standing. Dem. Sen. Martin Heinrich is expected to win a third, six year term. If he does and the Dems manage to keep control of the Senate--an uphill struggle--he is now "widely expected" to become chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. The latest from Axios Pro:

Heinrich is the overwhelming favorite for chair, unless he's tapped for a role in the Harris administration.

It would seem Heinrich's chances of seeking the '26 Dem gubernatorial nomination go up if he doesn't get the chairmanship. The job possibility with a victorious Harris is new speculation. 

On the Guv front, Heinrich continues to dance:

The way I make these decisions--and it’s heavily influenced by family, obviously--is I try to figure out where I can make the biggest difference for the state of New Mexico. Right now, I believe that’s in the United States Senate.”

Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland has also signaled she is interested in a Dem Guv run. 

We put up two Domenici ads this week attacking Heinrich on crime. Here is a new Heinrich ad on the fentanyl crisis.

No US Senator has been defeated for re-election in New Mexico since 1982 when Dem Jeff Bingaman ousted first-termer Republican Jack Schmitt. 

Domenici would be the state's first female US Senator.

US HOUSE

Dems are favored to keep the state's three US House seats. ABQ Dem Rep. Stansbury and northern Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez are in heavy Dem districts. The southern district now leans toward Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez. His challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell is stiff but she is losing by nine points in two different polls. 

That polling can't be ignored, says longtime political analyst and attorney Greg Payne:

That race is essentially over--unless there is a late shocker--but it is interesting how the district has gone from a swing district to one that will now likely be permanently Democratic. 

538 says: 

Vasquez wins the seat 84 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 House election. Herrell wins the seat 16 times out of 100.

The site's track currently has the finish at 53.7 for Vasquez and 46.3 percent for Herrell, a difference of 7.4 percent. 

In 2022 Vasquez beat Herrell by just 1,350 votes or 50.3% to 49.6%, a difference of 0.7 percent.

STATE SENATE AND HOUSE 

Maybe a seat or two either way seems to be the consensus for the senate. All 42 seats are up for election. Dems control the chamber 27 to 15. The chances of no party making any gains is also on the table. 

Republican Nicole Tobiassen is favored to beat Dem Athena Christodoulou in ABQ NE Heights District 21 to replace retiring GOP Sen. Mark Moores. This is now the only Republican state senate seat based in Bernalillo county.

In the House, Dem party leadership is hoping for at least a two seat pickup that would take their majority  from 45 to 47 in the 72 member chamber. The GOP is also hoping for two pickups. There is enough competitive districts for either side to prevail.

The only GOP House seat left in BernCo is District 31 where Republican Nicole Chavez appears to hold a lead over Dem Vicky Estrada-Bustillo in a race that could go down to the wire.

A trio of losses by conservative Democrats Dems in the June primary will be the main ideological driver in the new Legislature, making the House more liberal even if the minority Republicans were to pick up a seat or two.

That's where we stand now. We'll update the forecast along the way 

DON'T GIVE UP 

Some may recall that for a number of years we pounded the table for a dental school in ABQ but frankly gave up. Now from the city comes this welcome word:

The City of Albuquerque joined Touro University to break ground on New Mexico’s first undergraduate dental clinical training facility. Located on the campus of Lovelace Biomedical Research Institute (LBRI) in Albuquerque, this new facility will serve as a clinical branch of Touro College of Dental Medicine (TCDM), providing essential training for 200 dental students, with plans to open in May 2025. 

Mayor Keller: “Not only will it help fill a critical shortage of dental professionals in our community, but our young people will have the opportunity to pursue careers in dentistry right here. This first-of-its-kind facility will help build. . .access to affordable dental care for those who need it most.  

Touro University is committed to delivering quality education as well as integrity, inclusivity, and respect for all members of our new Touro community in New Mexico,” said Touro University President Alan Kadish, M.D.

Touro President Kadish points out that New Mexico faces a severe dentist shortage, with only 48.4 dentists per 100,000 people, below the national average of 60.84. He anticipates that there will be a significant number of graduates who remain in New Mexico to pursue their dental careers.

We hope he's right about the graduates staying here since rural areas of the state can often be a dental desert.  

In any event, we'll celebrate this news after many years of waiting, but not with anything that will give us a cavity. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

We'll talk politics and the election on KKOB radio at 5 p.m. today with TJ Trout. Stop by if you get the chance. . .

We will broadcast an Election Eve preview on public radio KANW 89.1 FM on November 4 at 5 p.m. Our Election Night coverage on the public radio outlet will start at 6:30 p.m. November 5. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

What was hyped as one of the closest congressional elections in the nation-- and justifiably based on recent past results, may be turning into something of a bust. 

SurveyUSA, polling for KOB-TV, finally came with a survey of the southern congressional district  that shows Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez with a substantial nine point lead over Republican Yvette Herrell--51 to 42 with 8 percent undecided. 

What makes the poll conducted among 582 likely voters Sept. 26-30 have added significance is the confirmation it gives to an Emerson College poll taken Aug 20-22 and hat also showed Vasquez with a nine point lead 50-41 with with 9percent undecided.   

That survey was scoffed at by political pros because Vasquez barely beat Herrell in 2022--by only1,350 votes--and her races in 2018 and 2020 were also nail biters. But the company ranks high in accuracy and appears on the way to being vindicated in this race.

The reasons for the Democrat apparently breaking away? The same we've given since Emerson hit the streets. 

--Vasquez is in a friendly Democratic district following the congressional redistricting and it is now taking hold. He was a poor candidate and an unknown when he inched by Herrell in 2022. Today he is more seasoned and known and is commanding more respect with Democrats who must cross over to give Herrell a chance.

--Abortion is an issue that has jolted the Dem female electorate since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and continues to cause tremors--even with some GOP women. Herrell started at 48 percent in the early polling but has come down some 7 points following strident attacks by the Dems on her pro-life position,

--A large swath of ABQ's westside and the South Valley--both heavy Dem--are now in the district. While there can be a conservative lean there, this election it may be overwhelmed by reproductive choice.  

THE TOP ISSUES

The #1 issue in the race is immigration and the border, cited by 28 percent of voters polled. That's the banner issue for Herrell but does not seem to be moving the needle anywhere near what she needs. 

Abortion ranks second in importance as an issue in the 2nd congressional district, according to the SurveyUSA which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. That's high enough to help take Vasquez into rarefied polling air for a district that is been an expensive battleground and closely watched around the nation. 

The poll is especially welcome in DC where the Dems need to pick up a handful of seats to take control from the R's and must hold seats like the New Mexico distrcit held by Vasquez.

Inflation is cited as the third most important issue in the poll at 16 percent of voters. Crime is fourth at 12 percent. 

That low ranking in the importance of crime can be attributed in part to the large portion of the district that is rural in  nature and where crime is nowhere near as rampant as it is in the ABQ metro area.

We reported this week that Vasquez has turned down an October 16 KOB-TV vote because he was probably polling well and did not want to drop the ball on statewide TV. This poll confirms that analysis and then some. 

Vazquez, a protege of Sen. Martin Heinrich, still has a way to go to seal the deal but it will take a herculean effort by Herrell and the Republicans in these final weeks.

The ABQ Journal plans to come will come with a poll on the race later this month. 

THOSE TV ADS

Do you notice how the media fact-checking of the initial campaign ads is hot and heavy and then fades away as the campaign goes on. We're as guilty as anyone in that regard. All media is simply overwhelmed by the sheer number of spots and hard-pressed to fact check each and every one. Unfortunately that probably has given rise to ads that stretch the truth. 

Having said that, here is a new round of ads making their way to a TV screen near you.

The national Democrats come with this spot focusing on Yvette Herrell and her stance on the cost of prescription drugs and the future of Social Security and Medicare. The obvious focus is senior voters. 

The campaign of GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenici is putting up two new ads on crime:

The Nella for Senate campaign launched two new TV ads slamming Heinrich for the out-of-control crime crisis in New Mexico. In the ad title, Tyrna“ the wife of an Albuquerque police officer calls out Heinrich for being out of touch and allowing the problem to get worse. In the other ad, Crisis," Martin’s record of turning a blind eye to drugs and violence he has allowed to get worse.

IT'S THE ECONOMY

Stansbury, Jeffries, Jones

While abortion is a major motivator for Democratic women voters, there is still concern in the party about reaching Hispanic and Black voters, many of whom have deep economic concerns.

To that end, Dem US Rep. Melanie Stansbury, seeking re-election against Republican Steve Jones of Roswell, hosted US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently at an event at ABQ's New Hope Full Gospel Church. 

She's pictured here with Leader Jeffries and Sandoval County Commissioner Joshua Jones on the right.  

Her office says:

Leader Jeffries and Rep. Stansbury touched on a broad range of topics including how Democrats are delivering for Americans in tangible ways like lowering costs for Americans, expanding access to healthcare, protecting the environment, and ensuring our democracy stays secure. “We have brought millions of dollars back to New Mexico through federal programs, legislation, and Community Project Funding that support education, housing, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic development. . Stansbury said.

 "House Democrats will continue to lean into lowering housing costs and growing the middle class with a particular emphasis on access to affordable homeownership," said Leader Jeffries. "Being able to purchase a home, keeping that home and being able to pass it onto the next generation is central to the great American dream. And we will fight to maintain the principles of free and fair elections and ensure the right to vote, which John Lewis would always say to us, is sacred, is sacrosanct and is essential to the integrity of our democracy. We have to push back against the extreme right-wing efforts to take it away, so one of our top priorities in Congress will be to pass the John Robert Lewis Voting Rights Act."

That voting rights act Jeffries referenced would strengthen aspects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. It has passed the House but stalled in the Senate. 

Stansbury was first elected in a special election in June 2021 to fill the vacancy created when Deb Haaland became Secretary of the Interior.

Under redistricting most of Bernalillo county remained in her First Congressional District but it was extended south and now includes portions of rural counties, most of which sparsely populated.

In 2022 Stansbury won with 56 percent of the vote over Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes Michelle. 

The Emerson College poll in August had her beating Jones 51 to 37 with 12 percent undecided.

The seat is rated safe Democratic. 

CYFD (ONGOING COVERAGE)

Kevin Berry, who heads up Peak Treatment Foster Care in Roswell, is a Republican with a long-standing interest in child welfare. He writes of our Tuesday blog reporting that Socorro Dem Rep. Tara Jaramillo has broken with the Governor over her opposition on major reform legislation for the troubled Children Youth and Families Department:

Joe, I commend Rep. Jaramillo for her op-ed on CYFD and taking a stand against the Governor's resistance to outside oversight. 

She said: "The problems at CYFD are not funding problems. CYFD is better funded now than it has ever been. The problems at CYFD are the result of a series of organizational failures over decades." A

s someone who has worked in New Mexico's broken child welfare system, she is on the right track but there is more to it. I think it is time for the legislators to take responsibility and own the problem. It's a priority problem, and that is on the legislators. 

Yes, CYFD has had organizational failures for years, but legislators have routinely kicked the can down the road and not held the agency's feet to the fire. Only in the last 3-5 years has their been a stronger effort to get legislation passed that would address many issues and provide outside oversight. 

If Representative Jaramillo is serious about changing CYFD, I would encourage her to build a coalition of bi-partisan support that is veto-proof. The citizens of this great state want change, solutions exists, and our children that CYFD is supposed to be protecting, deserve better. 

Here is a few suggestions in addition to providing outside oversight through the creation of an independent ombudsman. 

--A clearly articulated definition of best-interest placement in the children's code that places an emphasis on safety. When the rights of the parents (abusive) intersect with the safety of the child, the safety of the child takes precedence. 

--Overhaul of CYFD safety plans that make them verifiable, and include mandated drug testing and compliance with court-ordered plan before reunification can occur. 

--Provide specialized training to investigators by trained law enforcement investigators so investigations are more thorough and accurate. 

--Enforce the Kevin S. settlement and codify it into law. Give it teeth. CYFD has failed to meet the requirements year after year. 

--Increase reimbursements to foster parents.

The legislative session is just a few months away, and this an opportunity to make the children of New Mexico a priority, or as one friend put it, "Put the child back in child welfare".

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Joe Monahan

RED ALERT: Be advised. You are about to enter a Monster Blogging Zone.

The deeply troubled Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD) has been impervious to major reform but that may be changing as Gov. Lujan Grisham comes under public fire from a Dem state representative normally supportive of her.

Socorro Rep. Tara Jaramillo, locked in a tight race with Republican Rebecca Dow, sponsored a measure to mandate outside supervision of CYFD. It passed the House but stalled in the Senate and is vigorously opposed by MLG. Now Jaramillo unloads on the Governor in an op-ed that will have observers watching for more legislative defections as the January session nears: From Jaramillo: 

My bipartisan bill establishing the Office of the Child Advocate. . .overwhelmingly passed the House. . .More than 25 other states have this office to oversee child welfare. . I believe independent oversight is an essential first step in fixing what’s broken at CYFD.  I was deeply discouraged when a member of my own party, the governor, killed the proposal. I have no doubt the governor cares about the welfare of the vulnerable children in state custody. . . But her resistance to reform in the face of the ongoing crisis at CYFD is misguided. And it is a clear signal to every member of the Legislature that we must execute our power as a co-equal branch of government and implement changes at CYFD — with or without the governor’s support, overriding her vetoes when necessary. The problems at CYFD are not funding problems. CYFD is better funded now than it has ever been.  The problems at CYFD are the result of a series of organizational failures over decades.

Is the stage being set for more accountability at CYFD? Stay tuned,

DEBATING WITH VASQUEZ

Update: KOB TV has released a SurveyUSA poll that shows Vasquez leading Herrell 51 to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided.  

The poll was taken among 582 likely voters September 26 to 30 and is similar to an Emerson College poll taken in late August that also showed Vasquez ahead by nine points.

 The campaign of Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez is trying to fade the heat their getting over refusing to debate Republican Yvette Herrell on KOB-TV October 16. 

They say that Vasquez has offered "multiple" other dates for such a debate but Herrell refuses to "compromise."

Vasquez's campaign declined comment when we asked just why he would be unable to put aside a few hours on the 16th for a broadcast debate that would more fully inform voters about the candidates.

The Herrell campaign says it wanted a debate earlier than the 16th because early voting starts October 8th (today) but Vasquez wanted it on the 21st, well after widespread early voting had begun. The 16th was offered as a compromise. KOB says:

After a great deal of back-and-forth on possible dates, KOB selected a date. The debate opportunity was declined by the Vasquez camp. 

Then there's this false equivalency offered up by the Vasquez forces: 

Vasquez's allies were quick to point out Herrell's absence on Thursday from a meeting of the All Pueblo Council of Governors. The group is a non-profit organization that represents 19 Pueblos in New Mexico on government and cultural issues. 

But that meeting was not a statewide TV debate accessible to the 200,000 or so voters who will cast ballots in the southern congressional race. 

Besides, the Pueblo Council has already endorsed Kamala Harris for president. They are not a neutral party like the TV station.

Campaigns willing to debate jump at the chance and readily adjust their calendars to make a statewide appearance. 

So what does this tell us? Exactly what we reported on Monday's blog--that Vasquez is nursing a polling lead and doesn't want to fumble the ball in a debate with the feisty Herrell. 

As that guy on TV was fond of saying: "That's the way it is."  

FROM BAD TO WORSE

Its gone from bad to worse for Nella Domenici when it comes to the thorny question of abortion. Well, thorny for Republicans such as her but easy-peasy for pro-choice Dems like Sen. Martin Heinrich who she seeks to unseat.

Nella's latest mishap over the issue comes in an interview with a columnist for the ABQ Journal that was so tortured it resulted in this take from column author Jay Newton-Small:

Why is Domenici twisting herself into pretzels on this issue? She’s losing women. Heinrich led Domenici among women in the latest Albuquerque Journal poll 55% to 33%. And she’s not the only one: Trump was losing women to Vice President Kamala Harris by the same margin.

Then audio of the 19 minute exchange was released by the paper. For Nella's backers it's not what you would call easy listening.

She pounds Heinrich for asserting that she supports a national abortion ban but when asked how she would vote in the Senate on a bill that would make access to abortion a woman's right, she refused to answer. 

Then, in a violation of everything Professor Joe has taught in Blogging Campaign Class 101, one of Nella's handlers interrupts the phone interview, and says to the columnist as she continues asking about the abortion rights issue:   

“We're talking hypotheticals here. Do you have any other points you can talk about?” 

Well, yes. Like this one:

Please be quiet and let me interview this candidate for the US Senate about one of the most crucial issues of the day. Also, with all due respect, I'll decide what is hypothetical and what isn't while you sit there and cringe while your campaign comes undone. Got that? 

Of course, the columnist was genteel and said nothing of the kind but we could not resist giving you a taste of how this game was played when the old school prevailed--and class is always in session around here. 

MORE DOMENICI DAMAGE

Also during the interview (at 12:03) Domenici declared:

(Heinrich) has completely lied and said that when I am in the Senate I will be controlled by male senators which is disgusting. I am one of the most independent-minded people he'll ever meet and to say that I will bow to some male senators when they ask me to to do things I disagree with--it's outrageous. 

Okay, so then why let a campaign handler dictate the conduct of your interview with a journalist? If that's not bowing down, it is deferring to him and that calls into question your independence, your ability to think on your feet and to act independently.

Heinrich's camp is all over Nella for the flailing interview but she does have a lot going for her. 

That includes her steely determination, her success in business and family life; her impressive education and the savvy and smarts to be a Senator. But here's the but. . .

To get to the United States Senate you have to demonstrate you are a qualified candidate and that's a test Nella and her clueless handlers are continually failing.

(Sorry, handlers. Any other points you would like us to talk about?)

VOTING STARTS TODAY

Here's the low down from Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover's office: 

Early voting starts today at the Clerk’s Annex, located at 1500 Lomas Blvd NW, with hours from Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Additional locations and extended hours will be available starting Oct. 19. Voters can access their sample ballots on line. In addition to the presidential race, the ballot will include races for state representatives, state senators, county officials, and Bernalillo County municipal court judges. Voters will also decide on County and City questions, constitutional amendments, and measures such as AMAFCA and Ciudad Soil and Water Conservation. For more information about the election.

And from Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark:

Starting today, all Santa Fe County residents can vote early at the Clerk's Office during regular business hours, 8am - 5pm Monday through Friday through November 1, 2024. Voting will not be available on Indigenous People’s Day, Monday, October 14th. Early voting at the clerk’s office will be on one Saturday only, November 2, 2024. More lection information here. 

JOHN ARTHUR SMITH

(Moore, ABQ Journal)

John Arthur Smith was as important as a legislator could be, chairing for 13 years the most powerful committee of them all, Senate Finance. 

During his time he often thwarted the spending dreams of governors whether they be Democratic or Republican, so much so that former Governor Big Bill dubbed him "Dr. No," a nickname that stuck and that Smith relished. 

Finally, in 2020, Smith was defeated in a Democratic primary by the progressives he had been so at odds with over his 31 year Senate career. 

Smith died Monday at 82 of stomach cancer.

The Democrat from Deming took the reins of Senate Finance as the Great Recession was hitting in 2009 and New Mexico was feeling the pinch. Smith applied a fix and the state was steadied. 

He also exercised unflinching oversight of state government programs in his role as chairman of the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) the legislature's most consequential vehicle for formulating policy and budgets. 

We found his budget austerity in the early years of his chairmanships spot on but disagreed with him as the state began to fundamentally change around ten years ago. That's when the argument broke out over expanding early childhood education and other social initiatives to halt a worsening quality of life for so many. 

He was steadfast in his opposition to a constitutional amendment to fund early childhood education and it was not until he left in 2021 that the amendment was approved by lawmakers and in '22 by voters. 

But Smith was no scrooge. He disliked the amendment because it relied on the multi-billion dollar Land Grant Permanent School Fund. In his later years he did author a bill for an Early Childhood Trust Fund that gets excess oil revenue and now holds $9 billion. 

The debate over budgets can be mundane and does not often engage the everyday citizen but that is the nuts and bolts of government. He who masters the budget masters the legislature. 

John Arthur Smith certainly mastered both and in the process earned a chapter in the never-ending book of La Politica. 

SMITH REACTION

Gov. Lujan Grisham had these comments on Sen. Smith's passing: 

 I join New Mexicans in mourning the loss of Sen. John Arthur Smith, an extraordinary public servant and a cherished colleague and mentor of mine and many other public servants in our state. Senator Smith was committed to fiscal responsibility while consistently aiming to improve quality of life for all New Mexicans. His leadership of the Senate Finance Committee helped put the state on sound financial footing and earned respect from colleagues across the political spectrum. Senator was not only a masterful legislator; he was kind and honest. He provided an example of ethical and decent conduct that all elected officials, including those in Washington, D.C., would be wise to follow. Senator Smith’s lifetime of dedication to New Mexico leaves a legacy that will continue to benefit our communities for generations to come. All New Mexicans owe him a debt of gratitude. 

Republican Party of New Mexico Chairman Steve Pearce issued the following statement:

We are deeply saddened by the news of John Arthur Smith's passing. John Arthur Smith dedicated over three decades of service in the New Mexico Senate. While we may not have aligned with all of his positions, Senator Smith consistently sought to find common ground on what unites us, rather than divides us, a quality often absent in today's political climate. In the Senate, he prioritized fiscal responsibility as a steward of New Mexicans' tax dollars and demonstrated courage in opposing his own party when it did not serve the best interests of his constituents. The Republican Party of New Mexico extends our heartfelt condolences to John Arthur Smith's family and loved ones as we acknowledge and honor his contributions to our state. 

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's Monster Blog. Those in need of any medical attention from over exertion please contact a professional of your political party's choice.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

We'd relish having some new polling on the hotly contested southern congressional race between Republican Yvette Herrell and Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez. Alas, there is none but we do have info that is second best. 

Vasquez is now refusing to debate Herrell, signaling that he believes the small polling lead he apparently holds is enough to take him across the finish line. 

He will take the hits for being a no-show while avoiding a debate error that could change the narrative with less than 30 days to go before election day. 

Take the hits he is. When it was announced that he will not debate Herrell on KOB-TV on October 16, a GOP posse quickly labeled him "cowardly" and otherwise blasted him with howitzers strong enough to take out a small New Mexico village:

"Chicken Little Gabe Vasquez!” exclaimed the GOP:

Cowardly Gabe Vasquez has chosen to hide away so he doesn't have to be confronted about his past actions, like saying he wanted to defund the police, shut down New Mexico’s oil and gas industry, or the police report disclosing his use of the N-word to harass a co-worker. A true leader will not leave their constituents in the dark, and that is why Yvette Herrell will show up to the debate stage alone.

That leaves us with one public survey that is scorned by Herrell as flawed but is probably causing nightmares for her and her loyal canine companion, Reba.

Flawed as it may have been--and it had its flaws--the Aug. 22-24 Emerson College survey showed Herrell trailing Vasquez by a whopping nine points. 

If that poll did not at least reflect the trend of the race, the Emerson numbers crunchers would have to be doing tequila shots. 

INSIDER POLLING

Rep. Vasquez

Vasquez, seeking a second two year term after a narrow 1,350 vote win over Herrell in 2022, is mum on the debate attacks, and why not? A Dem campaign operative not working in his, gave us this take:

Joe, everything I’ve seen shows Gabe up about two to three percent but momentum is in his direction. Yvette seems stalled out. My sense is that the hits on him over defunding the police are tired and no longer moves people. The transgender stuff she is using is an interesting turn but I also don’t think it’s what’s going to swing the race.

That insider is not alone. 

Inside Politics with Nathan Gonzales in DC has now joined yer little 'ol blog in rating the contest as leaning Dem after ranking it a toss-up all year:

Vasquez has been in the Toss-up category for virtually the entire cycle. But he’s maintained a narrow but consistent edge over former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell. Time will tell whether a boost in Republican spending will change the dynamic, but for now the rating has shifted from Toss-Up to Tilt Democratic.

FOLLOWING THE MONEY 

About that spending, both Dems and Republicans are putting big dollars to work but a GOP consultant sent us info that shows that in September the race didn't even rank in the top ten in spending in the House races. 

In 2020 when Herrell won, it was the second most expensive race in the nation with an astounding $35 million coming in. In the '22 Herrell-Vasquez race it dropped out of the top ten and Vasquez won.

Vasquez has far out-raised her in their personal campaign accounts. He's taken in nearly $4 million to Herrell's $2.44 million. At last report, Vasquez had $2.7 million cash while Herrell had $1.35 million.

LIMPING BUT ALIVE

Yvette Herrell

Herrell is limping but still has life. Polling indicates Hispanic men in the ABQ South Valley are still susceptible to a strong GOP economic argument. And it's possible that Vasquez' constant refrain on abortion could hire some voters. But the congressman's campaign appears disciplined and that is a positive reflection on him.

Herrell's campaign is not bad but it's her usual stuff and that may be the problem. She is so well-known that the only voters she's going to pick up going forward are the ones she can peel off from Vasquez with a strong negative campaign. In that regard she better come with a new and improved product.

It's not all on Herrell. We've been reminding the state that this district is a soft Democratic gerrymander with a theoretical six point lead for the Dem presidential candidate. 

Two years ago a deer in the headlights Vasquez nearly got ambushed. Now he and the national Dems have the sand out of their eyes. Headwinds for Herrell are still there even as Vasquez hides from debates in his man cave in Hatch--or somewhere.

FUNDING THE PROJECT

Apodaca

The New Mexico Project's money is now public. As ordered by the court, the political committee led by ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca last week released their donations ($143,000) and expenditures ($121,000) after resisting a lawsuit from the State Ethics Commission. 

For blog readers the report was no surprise. As we had reported, oil and real estate interests were the big money donors to the Project for the June primary with Chevron topping the list giving $50,000.

In an interview with us in the spring, Apodaca told us his group had raised $1 million but later walked that back and said the legal tussle over disclosure had inhibited donations.

Apodaca says the group will be active going forward. 

The Project was formed to oppose progressive Democrats who Apodaca says are not representing the interests of the state's Hispanic residents.

DONORS

Chevron; $50,000; Doug Campbell, Interpreter $25,000;  NM NAIOP, political action committee (real estate) $15,000; Raymond Alderete self employed--$15,000; Richard Herig, retail--$10,000; Pitre Group, (autos) $10,000; Sam Donaldson, former ABC News correspondent--$5,000, 

The complete report is here. 

ETHRIDGE EXIT

Bowing to the inevitable, the ABQ Journal orchestrated the resignation of their executive editor Patrick Ethridge last week after he became engulfed in a shoplifting scandal that stunned La Politica but did not appear to have much impact on the public. 

Reacting to Ethridge's arrest for shoplifting and the ten day sentence he was given to be served at the Sandoval County Detention Center, one social media reader wrote:

It's like the manager of a McDonald's getting fired. 

That zing is a commentary not only on the Journal but sadly about newspapers in general which are not engaging generations raised on social media. 

The paper reported that they did not know of the August 24 incident at a Rio Rancho Walmart until over a month later when Ethridge was sentenced. Journal publisher Willam Lang said of the embarrassing episode:

This has been an unfortunate and confusing time for all of us. Patrick is a talented writer and hard-working editor, but given the circumstances, moving forward without him was our only realistic course of action. We are grateful for his significant contributions during his short tenure here.

A former reporter for the Journal said another editor from out of state--Ethridge came in from Nebraska--could be in store for the paper.  "There is no obvious successor on the Journal's staff. The old guard is all gone." He opined. 

THE JOURNAL'S PAIN

If the Journal today is more than a break even proposition it would surprise business analysts. But the company has substantial real estate interests thought to subsidize the increasing cost burden of putting out a daily paper.

There have been on and off rumors of a possible sale of the Journal but finding a buyer in the poor newspaper environment is an issue. 

The Lang family, which has owned the Journal for nearly 100 years, still seems to find purpose in keeping it under their wing, even though the paper's news and editorial agenda is increasingly isolated from the community it serves.

The Journal has shed numerous staffers in recent years. Some of them gravitated to the Santa Fe New Mexican which has replaced the Journal as the go-to newspaper for government and political news.  

Expensive investigative reporting, once a hallmark of the Journal, has shriveled. That role has been assumed in part by nonprofit outlets such as Searchlight and TV news. But the watchdog role of the press over government has has been greatly diminished by the Journal's misfortunes. 

Ethridge steered the paper further away from serious public affairs coverage and more toward what was once known as "happy news" when first deployed by media consultants in the 70's. Many of the Journal's  stories are now click-bait for their website.

Still, having a healthy independent daily newspaper was a sign of ABQ and the state's vitality. But the state has been in an economic, social and political decline (excepting the oil boom) for over a decade,  brought about by numerous factors covered here extensively during that time. It's no surprise that the Journal's business model has fallen victim to the same circumstances as other businesses. But this loss of their ethical compass is an unusual and dispiriting development for them and the state.

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