Pollster Sanderoff

Yvette Herrell desperately needs good news in the public polling. Her last shot at getting some could be this Sunday (Oct. 20) when the ABQ Journal comes with their second and final poll of Election '24

The paper took a pass on the southern congressional seat featuring Herrell and Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez in their September survey but longtime pollster Brian Sanderoff says that race, in which Herrell has lagged Vasquez by nine points in two separate polls conducted in late August and late September, has been included this time.

Sanderoff says the paper Sunday will also have a second round of polling on the presidential race here as well as the US Senate race. Both are seen as closed out by top operatives here and elsewhere with Trump on course to lose the state for the third time and Nella Domenici falling short of Dem Senator Heinrich as he seeks a third, six year term. 

Overall, polling is more difficult than ever with many voters reluctant to pick up their phones. 

Sanderoff, whose firm Research and Polling has surveyed every major statewide NM election since the late 1980's, details the most significant development for his firm and others during the Trump era: 

The biggest demographic shift in NM and nationally during the Trump era is educational attainment level. Trump is doing better than in the past among those without a college degree (especially those with a high school or less educational attainment) and Democrats are doing even better than in the past among those with a college degree, especially those with a graduate degree. Thus it is important not to undercount those with less education. 

By calling the non-respondents multiple times over multiple days you can mitigate but not eliminate nonresponse bias. In the 2020 Presidential election we were within one point of the margin of victory. In 2016 we were 3 points off the margin of victory.

The southern district has been notoriously tricky to poll because of its rural nature. But now half the votes in district come from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties. 

The two public polls in the race had Vasquez winning by by 9. Any improvement by Herrell on that could boost the Republican effort to reset the race in the final days.

HERRELL'S PAST

Herrell

Staying with the 2nd Congressional District, readers point out that we've covered the Republican scolding of Vasquez for his verbal mishaps, committed while a student at NMSU some 20 years ago. They say if his past errors are going to be covered then an incident in the 2018 campaign in which Herrell was the GOP nominee also deserves coverage. 

That controversy was covered here and elsewhere back then, but alright. In the spirit of fairness here it is again from an '18 news report:

A Republican New Mexico state lawmaker and congressional candidate has amended a financial disclosure filing to show that her company received money from contracts with state agencies, in a move ensuring compliance with state regulations.

State Rep. Yvette Herrell of Alamogordo previously disclosed that she is a partner in Herrell Properties. She submitted an amended filing to show the company earned more than $5,000 from goods or services provided to state agencies.

Other state records have indicated that Herrell Properties took in $440,000 since 2013 by renting property to the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department and New Mexico Environment Department.

The Secretary of State’s Office spokesman  said the amended filing brought Herrell into compliance with the requirement to “disclose the name of any state agency to which the legislator sold goods or services in excess of $5,000.”

Herrell survived that flare up and even now as she gasps for oxygen in a gerrymandered district, she can't be counted out.

Her vote to not certify Biden as president in 2021 and her rigid pro-life position, combined with the gerrymander of the district, puts her in grave danger. But her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years and made them cross over from their own party to elect her. 

NO MAS

It appears multi-millionaire and former hedge fund executive Nella Domenici is done donating to her senate campaign. 

The Heinrich camp, keeping an eye out for a last minute minute money rush, notes that Domenici raised $1.15 million in the final quarter before Election Day but she did not make any personal loans to her campaign. 

She had previously given a total of $1.5 million of personal money. 

Heinrich reports raising $2.3 million in the quarter, out raising her 2 to 1. 

In May we broke the news that Domenici's net worth, according to documents filed with the Senate, was  upwards of $94 million or $21 million on the low end. Dems howled at the time that they wanted "an election not an auction."

They pretty much got what they wanted since $1.5 million is a relatively modest amount for a major campaign. And Nella's hesitancy to throw more of her fortune at a race that may be out of reach earns her points for her assertion that she is a true fiscal conservative. (But there's still three weeks to go so stay tuned.)

In her latest TV ad Domenici continues calling Heinrich a "radical" but this time there's a twist. She says his economic policies are radical. That may be a better angle to get voter attention than her past efforts. The economy tops the list of concerns this year and relating Heinrich's alleged "radicalism" to voter's pocketbooks could win her a listen. 

DEBATE REACTION

Readers commented on the first Heinrich-Domenici TV debate conducted Monday afternoon. Jay Howard Deme wrote:

A real ho-hum affair between incumbent Martin Heinrich and challenger Nella Domenici. Sleepers for sure. Where are the real firebrand candidates for this top office to represent New Mexicans in Washington, D.C. at the U-S Senate! The two major party's, Democrat and Republican , better wake up. 

Khal Spencer wrote on social media:

Reader Kelley says:

Joe, concerning Nella Domenici's outrage at being perceived as following orders of a Republican Senate Majority Leader. Of course she will--whatever Donald Trump and the party desire. They’re in lockstep, no independence. 

 It’s not sexist, as she claims, it’s true. Domenici may have been successful in business, but she’s not ready for high office. I like how Heinrich has ascended and earned his way to become a US Senator by way of ABQ city councilor. US Rep., then Senator--and it shows. 

Lastly, Nella saying everyone in the ABQ "war zone" is stoned is an insult to an entire block of our city. My aunt lives between Lomas and Central off Wyoming. I can assure Nella, she’s not stoned. The community needs help and solutions, not snobby, judgement. Have a good day, Joe. 

That's it for now. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. . .

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Nathan Brooks

Voters are being asked to go back in time to asses the qualifications of two candidates--a ABQ GOP House candidate who carries several criminal convictions including one over an ugly domestic violence incident and a US Congressman whose youthful days are fulled with numerous verbal indiscretions.

The House candidate entangled in his past is Nathan Brooks, the Republican nominee for the District 68 state House seat on ABQ's westside held by Dem Rep. Charlotte Little, a member of San Felipe Pueblo, who won the seat by a tiny 35 vote margin in 2022. 

But Republicans are concerned that she could pull away if voters hold Brooks accountable for his past from 15 to 17 years ago. 

Little's campaign sent this hard-hitting digital ad that is cringe-worthy in the way it describes Brooks' disturbing domestic violence arrest and conviction:

Before he was convicted of a DWI and charged with battering a police officer and evading arrest Nathan Brooks did something unforgivable. 

Police found a woman lying in front of a liquor store where Nathan Brooks had beat her. 

Witnesses said Brooks had thrown her to the ground then kicked and punched her several times walked away and attacked her again.

Brooks told police he was going to kill her when he got out.

Nathan Brooks is not fit to serve us.

Paid for and authorized by the Speaker Fund.

Pretty devastating stuff, none of which Brooks, 49, denies. He said this about his past on the Journal questionnaire:

Almost 20 years ago, I was arrested and convicted of misdemeanors. It was a difficult time in my life as I battled alcoholism. I have since entered recovery, learned from those experiences, turned my life around, focusing on becoming the best version of myself and serving my community. . .As Executive Director for the Commercial Association of REALTORS® NM and President of the New Mexico Real Estate Education Foundation in 2024, I bring extensive business experience. 

THE SUMMARY   

Rep. Little

Here is a summary the Democrats are circulating that shows what Brooks is facing:

On June 19, 2005, Nathan Taylor Brooks was arrested in Clark County, Nevada and booked into the Clark County Detention Center. . . Mr. Brooks was arrested and charged with two counts of Domestic Violence. Docket information indicates he pled Guilty to one count and on the other pled nolo contendere and found guilty on the other count. 

09-24-2006 - Albuquerque Metropolitan Court- T-4-DW-2006004758 - State of New Mexico vs. Nathan T. Brooks - DWI First Offense and Not Driving Within Traffic Lane - Mr. Brooks is arrested and booked. . . He pleads not guilty to DWI and the case is dismissed by the prosecutor - unable to proceed (this usually means the arresting officer, who actually prosecutes the case failed to show) and pled guilty and was found guilty of Not Driving Within Traffic Lane.

Mr. Brooks is arrested on 02-15-2007 and charged with Battery Upon a Peace Officer, Resisting/Evading/Obstructing an Officer, Reckless Driving 1st Offense, Aggravated DWI (1st Offense), No Evidence of Registration, and two counts of Failure to Obey Traffic Control Devices. Mr. Brooks pleaded Guilty/No Contest to Resisting/Evading/Obstructing an Officer and Aggravated DWI 1st Offense.

Voters can either decide Brooks has redeemed himself by straightening out his life or decide that the grizzly domestic violence incident along with the DWI's and associated misbehavior is too much for them to tolerate. It's not a pleasant task.

VERBAL VASQUEZ

Meanwhile, Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez is facing what may be the final volley from Republican Yvette Herrell over his verbal indiscretions from his youth.

Records surfaced that show Vasquez nearly 20 years ago threatened to "kill" and "bury" a fellow student at NMSU. From the 2005 police report:

Mr. Vasquez admitted that he made the call to Carlos Solis that was construed to be a threatening-type call. He apologized and claimed at the time, he was very upset due to the condition of his friend [who was hospitalized]. Mr. Vasquez assured me that he wished no ill-will on Mr. Solis and will not call or harass Mr. Solis in any way.

Herrell said:

This is extremely dangerous and unhinged behavior from Gabe Vasquez, and he owes New Mexico’s Second District an immediate explanation and apology. 

And Vasquez: 

Once again, Yvette Herrell is making shameless, dishonest and desperate attacks against me. It's outrageous she's now exploiting the death of a close college friend to attack me. She just wants to distract voters because she was caught on tape admitting she wants to ban all abortion even in cases of rape, incest, or to save a woman's life.

Vasquez's past verbal mishaps were documented earlier in the campaign but don't seem to have slowed him. He led Herrell by nine points in both a late August Emerson College survey and a late September SurveyUSA.

Vasquez won election over Herrell in 2022, so much of his past has been vetted by voters who gave him a pass. 

Reports of the latest verbal indiscretions are new but Vasquez has not repeated such behavior during his term as a congressman and that may be making the difference.

BACK AGAIN

Speaker Johnson

Herrell is bringing back US House Speaker Mike Johnson for a second visit to the the 2nd Congressional District in support of her campaign. It shows the GOP is not giving up on the swing seat but also reveals the challenge they face. 

Johnson, who previously appeared in Las Cruces for Herrell, will now be in Carlsbad October 23 to get out the vote. 

That's in SE oil country which is generally friendly for her but not as much as Hobbs and Roswell which are now split up between other districts.

Herrell needs solid conservative southeast turnout but she needs it even more in ABQ's South Valley and Westside which are now in the district. That's where she could really use some big league names--if the areas are still in play for her. 

(Those interested in attending the Oct. 23 Carlsbad event can check here.)

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Republican Nella Domenici finally filled in one of the biggest blanks in this year's race for the US Senate. She announced in the final moments of an hour-long televised debate with Sen. Martin Heinrich that she will be casting her vote for president for Donald Trump. (Full debate here.)

That will be greeted with shrugged shoulders elsewhere, but it took Nella the better part of the year to arrive at her come-to-Donald moment and it took Heinrich's prodding to get her there. When asked by him for her presidential choice she surprised viewers with this:

My decision on the presidential election is a focus on policy. I could never vote for Kamala Harris. I also agree with many of the policies of Donald Trump. I will be voting for our nominee.

Domenici could have made the announcement without any prodding earlier in the debate but by waiting for Heinrich to ask, she was able to give a muted endorsement of Trump. 

Still, Heinrich's camp was delighted to point it out to a state that is poised to deliver a solid win to Kamala Harris, declaring: 

After dodging questions her entire campaign, New Mexico GOP Senate candidate Nella Domenici finally admitted she supports former President and convicted felon Donald Trump. 

The endorsement could impact the race but not the outcome. Domenici's polling has been below 40 percent in the public surveys, well below base Republican performance. The Trump endorsement should help her with GOP enthusiasm even as it further alienates Democrats.  

The endorsement also puts Domenici on the right side if she loses to Heinrich and then runs for the GOP nomination for Governor in 2026, a race that Democrat Heinrich is thought to be entertaining.

Prior to her Trump comment, the other moment of the debate that stood out for Domenici was when she raised her voice a bit at Heinrich, calling him "sexist and insulting" for saying she would follow the orders of a Republican Senate Majority Leader and support a national abortion ban: 

That is the most sexist comment you could ever hear from a Untied States Senator. I'm a very successful professional, educated woman and I will not be told by any Senator. . . what to vote on or how to vote on it. And for Martin Heinrich to think I am a weak woman who will take orders from a man and not stick to my own values, that's a sexist, insulting, demeaning remark. 

Domenici repeated her stance that she would not be voting for a national abortion ban but again refused to answer how she would vote on a Senate bill that would make it a right for a woman to have an abortion. Heinrich pointed out that she had called such a bill "a sham" and said her answer was a "nonanswer."

Heinrich kept his head down and took notes as Nella delivered her blast. Showing no emotion has almost become a caricature of Heinrich but his years in the Senate have improved his debating ability considerably. 

Heinrich also did not flinch when the candidates were asked about late-term abortions in the state, insuring that pro-choice voters have no second thoughts:

I support allowing the women in this country to make their  health care decisions. . . I don't think there is any moment when a politician is going to make a better decision than the woman. 

Slam. Dunk. 

And that made us wonder yet again what would this campaign look like if at the beginning Nella Domenici became that rarest speeches of all--a pro-choice Republican woman. 

We'll never know. 

DEBATING DRUGS

Nella did some clean-up work when Heinrich repeated his TV ad message that when she was CFO of the Bridgewater hedge fund it invested millions in Chinese companies responsible for fentanyl coming into the US:

When I was at Bridgewater, I was CFO. I had absolutely nothing to do with any stock investments anywhere in the world. (Heinrich) is trying to distract from his own failed record. 

For his part, Heinrich did not take after any of Nella's ads against him because, frankly, none have penetrated his armor. 

Both candidates offered solutions to the fentanyl crisis with Domenici supporting a border wall and Heinrich saying he has funded more equipment to sniff out smugglers, saying that 80 percent of the fentanyl coming in to the US is carried by Americans.

LIGHT SIDE 

Nella showed an empathetic side when Heinrich lost his train of thought and struggled to recall the word voucher when the discussion tuned to school vouchers. She turned to him and helpfully said "voucher." 

During the debate Nella had to ask that several of the questions be repeated because she was having difficulty hearing them, so her offer of assistance to Heinrich struck a cord when she could have just let him hang there. 

Summing up the debate: It took Martin Heinrich less than 30 seconds into the broadcast to mention "the right to choose." Any questions?

DOWNTOWN DOZING

The ABQ City Council just can't get it together when it comes to stopping people from sleeping on downtown streets. A piece of messy legislation that came in four parts led to an 8-1 vote against halting the downtown public dozing and other measures to make the area more hospitable. 

That led to this from reader Larry Anderson:

The vote against doing something about crime and homelessness went down 8-1. The council is only interested in their own tribe/club and not their broader constituency. One refuses doing anything about abandoned properties, another one or two are part of the Homeless Industrial Complex. Still another believes the government should be of the Police, by the Police, for the Police and more Police. There are others. They are powerful little tribes/clubs and most Citizens aren't members.

It was downtown Councilor Joaquin Baca who sponsored the losing legislation which makes you wonder how a bright fella like him could not have known it wasn't going anywhere

Did misplaced progressive outrage over banning the downtown sleep overs make Baca reticent to sponsor legislation that would have a chance of passing? 

Will he try again with more coherent legislation that bans the sleepers? 

Or will the city put out mattresses in front of the Man's Hat Shop to make the nappers more comfortable? 

SHE SAYS SHE'S HOT

(Austria, Journal)

She turns 65 October 24 but our peripatetic Governor isn't slowing down. She's running down the campaign trail, proclaiming herself a"hottie for Harris," while sporting a hot pink suit that is sure to turn opposition Republicans red with rage.

"Dammit, Joe, she's flashing us!"

Safely re-elected and hopeful for a spot in a Harris administration should the VP win, MLG could have a whale of a political hangover the day after the election if Harris flops. For now, its adrenaline, caffeine, hot pink and maybe even some pole dancing before this crazy campaign is put to bed.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft Monday we identified former state Rep. Dona Irwin as a Republican. She was a conservative Democrat who died recently at 93.

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Not again? Yes, again. The simplest of queries from the ABQ Journal questionnaire could once again deliver game-changing results in a state legislative race, and this time it would very likely mean that Bernalillo County--the state's largest--would have zero GOP members in the state House of Representatives. 

The mini-quake was set off when it was reported that GOP House District 31 hopeful Nicole Chavez, seeking to replace retiring GOP State Rep. Bill Rehm, gave herself credit for a college degree she did not have on her 2022 general election Journal questionnaire. She listed a nonexistent "B.S., business administration."

And she compounded her problems with this:

Chavez was more specific on the ivoterguide.com website. She said she received a bachelor’s degree in 2019 from Capella University, an online school based in Minneapolis. More contradictions are found on Chavez’s LinkedIn social media page. Chavez lists bachelor’s degrees from both Capella University and Walden University, another online school headquartered in Minneapolis. The degree from Walden, she wrote, was conferred only last month. All of her claims were false. 

Scrambling to overcome a Democratic challenge from Vicky Estrada-Bustillo, Chavez came with this that about her claim of having a degree:

I listed it because I was on target to graduate end of summer but because of this campaign and having a full time career, I had to push out my last classes to another semester,” she wrote in a text message. “I have been working on this degree slowly for years while working a full time job, raising my children and advocating for victims across the state because this is a very important personal goal for me to complete.

Estrada-Bustillo, 63, and retired from the US Forest Service, came with this zinger in response to Chavez's claims:

When you received a college degree is not something you forget. I can tell you exactly when I got my master’s degree in forestry,” Estrada-Bustillo said. (It was in 1993, from Stephen F. Austin State University).

Chavez, who lists her employment as Director of Sales, Outreach, and Retention for Presbyterian Health Plan, is also dealing with a residency question:

When she ran and lost for the District 28 House seat in ABQ in 2022 against Dem Pamelya Herndon, she attested on candidate forms that she lived in that district. But in the 2024 primary election Journal questionnaire she says she has lived in District 31 for eight years.

IVEY-SOTO ANALYSIS

Chavez's race was already tight before the questionnaire mishap, according to insider polling. Now the outcome may swing on how undecided voters assess Chavez's character including her integrity.

ABQ Dem state Senator and attorney Daniel Ivey-Soto, both a winner and a loser in elections and who we've enlisted to help cover the final campaign stretch, comes with this analysis:

Joe, registration in House District 31 is 39 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent. I think the party vote is probably dug in in but a message to undecided independents over the questionnaire flap could impact this race. 

A Republican loss could mean the Democrats in Bernallio County sweep every state House race for the first time in memory. Also, the Republicans have only one state Senate seat based here. A Chavez loss ould further hurt the party's rebuilding effort as well as depriving ABQ a GOP voice in the House.

Ivey-Soto points out that there are no other Bernalillo County races where the GOP has a good shot of picking up a seat and making up for a Chavez defeat should it occur. 

CURSE OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE

Chavez, 48, broke onto the political scene when she became an anti-crime activist in the wake of the murder of her 17 year old son. She joins a long line of candidates who have not been truthful in their answers to the newspaper's questionnaire. 

Just last year ABQ City Councilor narrowly escaped defeat when she misstated her educational credits on the Journal questionnaire. Republican Bassan’s mishap was not as serious as Chavez's. She said she had a bachelor's degree in criminal justice when she had only an associate degree. Still, she only eked out her re-election bid by 153 votes or 1.4 percent. 

For some reason not all of the new generation of candidates has learned any lessons from the last one. That lesson being that telling the truth will set you free and the opposite could put you in political prison.

DEBATE DAY

New Mexico's version of the Not Ready for Primetime Players is set to play out this afternoon. 

After first scheduling the US Senate debate between Republican Nella Domenci and Sen. Martin Heinrich for the prime time hour of 7 p.m., KOAT had to reschedule because the ABC Network has decided to air more Monday Night Football games this season--starting with tonight's contest between the Jets and Bills at 6:15 p.m.

That last minute change had the station sending the debate back to today's 4:30 p.m. start time. Also, the Heinrich campaign confirms the debate will be pre-taped this afternoon--not aired live--cutting some of the edge from the event. 

Nevertheless, the debate will go on for one hour and offer underdog Domenici a chance to try to turn around a race she trails in by double digits. But Heinrich will counter her attacks on him over inflation, crime and the border with his own hits over her refusal to say whether she will vote for Trump, her abortion stance and Project 2025.

Nella's supporters will have statewide watch parties, including in ABQ at State GOP headquarters. 

Heinrich's boosters will gather to watch at ABQ's O'Niell's Pub on Central Ave. 

This won't be the last debate chance for Domenici. The candidates have one more scheduled on Sunday October 27 at ABQ's Congregation Albert. It will be televised live on KOB-TV but it occurs at 11 in the morning. It seems our Not Ready for Prime Time Players are destined to stay that way. 

As for the importance of tonight's debate to the outcome of the election, we get this: 

Debates below the presidential level have only rarely mattered, and they matter even less today,” said Joshua Karp, a Democratic operative. “In the past, debates have offered an opportunity to break through the noise and maybe have an outstanding moment on an important issue, but two can play at that game and the other side gets to talk too in every debate.” “The upside of the potential to break through is offset by the potential for the other guy to break through,” Karp said.

 DONA IRWIN

Former conservative Dem State Rep. Dona Irwin of Deming has died. She served from District 32 from 1999-2017. Gov. Lujan Grisham said:

I had the privilege of working alongside Dona Irwin for many years. (She was) a stalwart advocate for children, families, and rural communities. She was especially skilled at connecting our agricultural heritage with educational opportunities, especially through her work with the Cooperative Extension Service. . . Long before universal meals and healthy cooking became national priorities, Dona was working to bring healthy meals and community gardens to senior centers across rural New Mexico. Her visionary leadership improved the lives of so many in our state.

Dona Irwin was 92.

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