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He didn't carry the state but by turning in the best New Mexico performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years Donald Trump gave his party here the pen and paper to start writing a new narrative to get itself out of the basement. Whether they seize the opportunity is up in the air.

Trump was losing the state to VP Harris early Wednesday 51.56 percent to 46.01 percent. (All election results here.)

That losing margin of 5.5 percent is the best GOP presidential showing since George W. Bush carried the state by a fraction of a percent over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. Trump appeared especially empowered by Hispanics and independents.

While the GOP was taking note of Trump's unexpected strength, the progressive wing of the Democratic party received a wake up call with the message that they are overdue for some navel gazing over how they have been handling economic and crime issues.

For MLG Election Night was a career ender. There will be no big job in DC with a President Harris but another two years of mud wrestling with the legislature. Her private sector prospects seem much brighter.

The disastrous national results for the Dems in which Trump was prevailing in both the popular vote and the Electoral College was made possible by attracting voters of color to his coalition. 

In New Mexico it appeared it was Hispanic Democratic men leading the march away from their party, joined by a multitude of independents, many of them angry and dissatisfied with their economic circumstances and runaway crime while Democratic party elites take little notice of them.

Veteran political analyst, attorney and former legislator Greg Payne messaged us Election Day, predicting that Trump would win with 312 electoral votes. That number looks close to being correct. 

Earlier he had warned Democrats that Trump's Halloween visit to New Mexico was a direct play to inflate his numbers with Hispanics here and elsewhere. It worked. 

So now what? Payne says:

Trump has shown Republicans how to get back in the game. There was so much fluidity and cross over voting with this electorate, with gender and ethnicity breaking usual patterns. The party now needs a new face for the Governor in '26. That means no Susana Martinez or Nella Domenici or the forces associated with them, but someone from the outside, someone new and exciting who can cobble together the coalition that Trump did and build on it. 

THIRD FOR HEINRICH

Heinrich (Journal)

While Democrats ached over the Trump national win and his overachieving here, Dem Sen. Martin Heinrich had a good night, handily defeating Republican Nella Domenici and winning a third term in the US Senate. 

That term, however, won't be as much fun as his party last night lost the Senate majority to the GOP. That might have Heinrich increasing his interest of running for Governor in '26.

Heinrich ran three points ahead of Harris, an unusual occurrence and another measure of Trump's prowess. Heinrich ran up the score against Domenici, 55 to 45 percent. 

Domenici had refused to embrace Trump until the very end of her campaign. It turned out to be the wrong move. 

US HOUSE 

Rep. Gabe Vasquez had to wait until late on Election Night for final returns from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties to secure a second term in the US House as he defeated Republican Yvette Herrell 52 to 48, her second loss in a row to him.

Republican analysts on our KANW radio panel said she will not be their party's candidate again. 

Vasquez may stay in the minority in the House as it appeared the GOP chances of holding on to their majority were improving.

US Reps Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez led the Democratic ticket in percentage terms, each getting 56 percent against their opponents in their safe districts. 

LEGISLATIVE ACTION

Republicans picked up one seat in the state House but the Dems will still have a large majority of 44 to 26. There was a gain of one GOP seat in the Senate. The party split will be 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans. 

(We've updated these numbers from earlier reports that were based on incomplete returns.)

Rebecca Dow defeated incumbent Dem Tara Jaramillo in a T or C area race and was already being mentioned as possibly the next House Minority Leader as Rep. Rod Montoya plans to bow out. 

Republican Nicole Chavez won the only ABQ state House seat held by the GOP, pushing away a stiff challenge from the Dems. 

Democrat Michelle Sandoval lost her second attempt to take a House seat in Rio Rancho District 57 that GOP Rep. Jason Harper is leaving. She trailed Republican Catherine Cullen by over 300 votes in the wee hours. 

Senator Martin Hickey, in a closely watched race in ABQ's NE Heights, defeated Republican Wayne Yevoli.

Turnout for the '24 general election was in line with past presidential years with about 67 percent of registered voters or some 920,000 casting ballots when everything is tallied.  

Thanks to all of our guest experts on KANW Election Night and to all who tuned in.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Join us for a New Mexico tradition, Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.COM. We start at 6:30 and will have it all from DC to Deming--and with the exclusive insider info you've come to expect. See you tonight!

Who better to sum up the feelings of the nation about this election than retired CBS news anchorman Dan Rather who helmed Election Night coverage for decades. From Austin, the now 93 year old Rather writes: 

Save your sanity. A Washington Post headline Monday proclaimed: “The Election is Uncertain, But It Might Not Be Close.” This takes covering one’s backside to an art form. With equivocation like that, no wonder everyone’s so anxious and exhausted, spiraling in a vortex of doomscrolling. The point is, no one knows anything for certain.  

Besides the uncertainty there's the anxiety that this election seems to have induced more than most. The Atlantic reports: 

This year, Americans of all political loyalties are finding the election anxiety-inducing: A recent survey survey from the American Psychological Association found that 69 percent of polled adults rated the U.S. presidential election as a significant source of stress, a major jump from 52 percent in 2016 (and a slight bump from 68 percent in 2020).

Well, the anxiety ridden can always look forward to an Election Night party, if so inclined. State Democrats will host one at Isleta Resort and Casino for all their candidates, supporters and volunteers. The party's big names all plan on attending and presumably cheering a Trump defeat--at least in New Mexico if not the nation. They include: 

Senator Martin Heinrich, Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez, Congresswoman Melanie Stansbury, Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller, DPNM Chair Jessica Velasquez, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and NM House Speaker Javier Martínez,

GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici has been heavily promoting her Election Night Watch Party. She's getting a head start, opening the doors to the event at Hotel ABQ in Old Town at 6 p.m. Her bash has become the de facto party place as the state party is not having an official gathering.

If Nella loses, will she then turn around and run for NM Governor in 2026? Maybe she'll take the proceeds from the busy bar tonight and start a new campaign kitty.

As for yours truly we've known where we will spend Election Night for, well, decades--on the airwaves of public radio station KANW-89.1 FM and kanw.com. This is the tenth presidential election we will anchor  for the station.

So it's that time again, an Election Night that will have hearts pounding and, as Dan Rather says, so filled with tension that it will make your fingernails sweat. 

I love America--no matter how crazy it gets--and we're ready to go.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Rep. Hochman-Vigil

The thing about this Election Night is you can't wait for it to start and you can't wait for it to end. 

Voters yearn for a resolution of the months-long and achingly close (at least according to the polls) presidential race as well as the lengthy and advertising-packed congressional races here. Well, tonight is their night.

We'll launch our live, continuous wall-to-wall coverage on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com at 6:30 with the latest results from the presidential contest in the early closing states. 

Soon after 7 p.m.--when the polls close--a tsunami of early results will tell the tale in most of the key state races. 

That's when the heavy lifting of analysis and reporting comes into play and once again we'll have a powerhouse panel to dice and slice Election '24 as only political connoisseurs can do. 

This year it is a number of state House races that are the political enigma. We're bringing back three term District 15 ABQ Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil to keep you informed on how the chamber is shaping up for the next legislative session in January. She's an accomplished attorney who is an expert in aviation and space law and chairs the House Transportation Committee. She also has a degree in Italian studies and French Language. That could come in handy since figuring out La Politica can sometimes be like learning a foreign tongue.

He's arguably the state's foremost expert on election law. And boy, do we ever need that at our traditional roundtable tonight. ABQ Dem state Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto (District 15) has sponsored and written many of the laws that guide today's state elections. The attorney has chaired the Senate Rules Committee and is leaving the senate this year after three terms. His commentary will be a must listen for political junkies and maybe even a few civilians.

The song says "You're Gonna Miss Me When I'm Gone." And so it is with the liberal lion of the state senate, Jerry Oritz y Pino. He's retiring from his District 12 seat after five terms at the Roundhouse where his always active and passionate voice on behalf of disadvantaged citizens gives him a legacy that will be built on by new generations. Politically, the Senate has been mired in intrigue while the House has been the new muscle in town. We'll again call on Jerry to see how the arm-twisting will play out as voters put some new faces in place. (And we might even throw him a retirement party with chicharrones.) 

State Republicans have been in a dark tunnel so long they've developed night vision. Longtime GOP operative Jamie Estrada will join us again (as he did back in 2012) and is assigned to interrupt your loquacious anchorman if he spots any light at the end of that tunnel as results roll in. Estrada has been working feversily on this year's key legislative races as a PAC consultant. His Republican bona fides include a stint in the Bush administration's Commerce Department. He'll ceratinly get down to business tonight.

Abeyta

Sisto Abeyta has been around a while. He started hanging our at our Election Night broadcasts in the 90's when he was an aide to a state Senator. The Valencia county native long ago graduated from that role to become one of the state's most prominent lobbyists as well as a savvy campaign consultant. He prides himself on being a keeper of the historic flame of La Politica that will again burn brightly this evening. If need be, he says he'll burn the Midnight Oil to call every legislative contest. Hey, no pressure Sisto.

Robert Aragon was the second youngest person ever elected to the state legislature when he achieved the feat in the 80's at the age of 21. Back then he was a conservative Dem but then became a Republican who is a former chairman of the Bernalillo County GOP as well as a onetime First Vice-Chair of the NMGOP. The longtime ABQ attorney and his family (his dad was former ABQ state Rep. Bennie Aragon) bring a wealth of political history to the broadcast. And what's an Election Night if not history?

We'll have other special guests who will add their expertise to the mix as we again bring you the most up-to-the-minute results and the best analysis of New Mexico politics you will find anywhere (plus a lot of fun). 

We look forward to having you join us for this New Mexico Election Night tradition tonight tomorrow on KANW and kanw.com at 6:30 p.m. See you then.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Our Election Eve Special kicks off at 5 p.m. today. Hear it at KANW 89.1 FM and at kanw.com.

The suspense of New Mexico Campaign '24 will be resolved quickly if Donald Trump is elected tomorrow night but if VP Kamala Harris wins, the suspense will only be beginning.

That's because if Harris makes it to the White House the state could very likely see a new Governor take the helm here next year. 

Also, for  the first time in history, three New Mexicans could conceivably serve together in a presidential cabinet. (Heck, two would be a record.)

While the outcome of the major races here remains quite predictable as the state continues to wade in a sea of blue, the question of the state's future leadership is essentially on the ballot.

Gov. Lujan Grisham continues to earn mentions that she is bound for a high-level position--possibly the cabinet--in the administration of a President Harris:

Biden vetted the New Mexico governor for the Health and Human Servies post four years ago, so she is well known to Harris’ team and a friend of the vice president, who officiated her 2022 wedding and initially considered her as a potential running mate. Her experience serving as New Mexico’s health secretary before her election to Congress aligns with a Cabinet post at HHS, and her outspokenness on reproductive rights since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has echoed Harris’ own speeches on the matter.

Not only is MLG a possible cabinet pick under Harris but former southern NM US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Agriculture, is now seen by the crystal ball gazers as a top contender to become Secretary of Agriculture should Harris prevail. 

And Mike Connor, a native of Taos Pueblo who leads the US Army Corp of Engineers, is a possible Harris pick for Secretary of Interior should Sec. Deb Haaland leave and launch a '26 Guv run and/or be replaced by Harris. About him:

An old hand in policy circles around Washington, Connor held the No. 2 spot at Interior during the Obama administration and was a runner-up for the top Interior spot under Biden.

THE XTS FILE

Torres Small

Torres Small, raised in Las Cruces, has been a rising star in state politics from the start. Smart, able and charismatic, the Democrat was unable to hold on to the then conservative southern congressional district for more than one term. But her talent won her the job of Deputy Secretary of Agriculture under Biden. 

Her expertise in rural issues, experience on the Hill and becoming the first woman of color to be Secretary of Agriculture puts her at the top of possibles, according to the DC chattering class. 

There's no disagreement here. We would add that if there were to be a vacancy in one of our US Senate positions, she would also belong at the top of that list of possible replacements.

HOWIE'S SUSPENSE

The suspense for Lt. Governor Howie Morales is 20 on a scale of 10 as he would become the state's next Democratic Governor should MLG depart. He is mostly an unknown to the New Mexican public, having been below the radar for the nearly six years he has served with MLG.

Whether he would seek the governorship in his own right in '26 is unknown but as a former state senator from the Silver City area, he is a creature of the legislature who could have better luck with lawmakers than the Governor has had of late. But the flash take from the Roundhouse Wall-Leaners is that Morales could be in danger from a legislature freed from MLG and that could run roughshod over him. 

What agenda Morales, a professional educator, would pursue as the state continues to pile up mammoth reserves from the energy boom is unknown. That's what makes for more suspense--if Harris wins.  

TRUMP AND NM

President Trump had no New Mexicans in his cabinet during his term and no local GOP names appear to be circulating as possibles should he be elected tomorrow night. 

But Trump's first term as president was not hurtful to the state. And when it came to the military-industrial complex--the military bases and Sandia and Los Alamos National Labs--their budgets grew robustly as well as their employment,

Bizarre rumors that the conservative Project 2025 plan could mean major cutbacks to the nonnuclear portion of the labs' budgets does not hold up under scrutiny.

Such lab cuts would require both White House and congressional approval even as support for their work today is at a bipartisan high point. 

Again, Trump's record as president lends no credence to the scare and no congressional representatives who deal with national security have raised the matter of budget slashing.

Ditto for the state's bases including ABQ's Kirtland Air Force Base, home to 23,000 employees, many active military. A shutdown scare in the 90's was thwarted and there hasn't been another since. The standing of Kirtland remains sturdy. While a shutdown scare last year at at Cannon AFB in Clovis did mean some cutbacks, the base came out strongly positioned to continue its mission indefinitely. 

As usual, New Mexico has much to worry about in its own backyard including an ABQ crime wave that now appears to be spreading to our state capitol but the state's financial position in Washington--no matter who controls the presidency--appears positive on the cusp of a presidential election that been gripping and grueling.

FINAL PREZ POLLING

A final batch of polling in the NM presidential race is out and reinforces the view that VP Harris will be the fifth Democratic nominee in a row--dating back to 2008--to win the race for the White House here.

SurveyUSA reports their poll from Oct. 28-31 has Harris leading Trump 50 to 44 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percent. 

The firm says that "among men, Trump leads by 6 points; among women, Harris leads by 18, a 24-point gender gap."

Their September survey had it 50 to 42 for Harris.

The mid-October ABQ Journal poll had Harris at 50 and Trump at 41. Other candidates had 5 percent and only 4 percent were undecided.  

Trump visited ABQ Oct. 31, the final day of the SurveyUSA poll and if he is getting a bump that could help him improve on his 2020 performance when he lost the state to Biden by 10.79 percent. 

Harris has been running slightly weaker in the NM polling than Biden did four years ago as Trump's performance with Hispanics, especially male Hispanics, is stronger this time.

VOTER TURNOUT

Voters like to vote early and they did it again this election, if not quite as much as 2020 when Covid kept folks away from the voting booths and preferring mail-in ballots. 

Early voting ended Saturday and the SOS reports 663,874 votes have been cast before Election Day this time. 

As usual, the majority Dems voted most with 46.2 percent of the total followed by the GOP with 36.6 and independents with 15.8 percent. 

We expect around 261,000 voters to go to the polls tomorrow to make the total presidential vote reach around 925,000 or close to 68 percent of the 1.377 million registered voters which is the percentage turnout we had in 2020. 

If so, that would mean early votes would comprise about 70 percent of all votes for president. (Final total turnout will be higher because not everyone votes for president.)

OUR ELECTION EVE SPECIAL

Join us for our live Election Eve Special today at 5 p.m. on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com when we dare our panel to make risky predictions about the key races up for grabs tomorrow. 

That's always fun and the predictions are usually spot on. But if any of the predictors run afoul, the boo birds will greet them on Election Night. 

Our guests include ABQ state Senators Daniel Ivey-Soto and Jerry Ortiz y Pino, ABQ Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil and the dean of the state capitol political press corp, Dan Boyd of the ABQ Journal. 

So join the fun of Campaign '24 and drop by KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com today at 5 p.m. and of course tomorrow night--Election Night--for our wall-to-wall coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. 

Thanks for tuning in. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.