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Thursday, April 10, 2025

New Rules For State Primary Elections Opens Voting Gates For Over 300,000 NM Independents; Founder Of Open Primaries Movement Weighs Potential Impact 

Bob Perls
It is a major change to state elections but it may not have a major impact on election outcomes. That appears to be the consensus among the political pros as they weigh the new rules for party primaries signed into law this week by MLG. That law states:

Some 330,000 unaffiliated voters in New Mexico will now be able to participate in primary elections without first having to change their voter registration to a major party. Senate Bill 16 is a measure that would create so-called semi-open primaries in the state.

To flesh out the history of this change and the surge it will mean in eligible voters for partisan elections, we spoke with former state Rep, Bob Perls of Corrales, the founder of the state movement for open primaries:

Joe, it’s been a 10 year effort and thousands of hours of volunteer time to pass an open primaries bill culminating in the passage of SB16. I want to thank the NM Open Elections Board members who kept the momentum alive and the state legislators who sponsored various versions of the legislation over the last decade. Then in 2022 NM Open Elections had some key local supporters write some sizable checks that allowed me and our Board to hire our first paid Executive Director, Sila Avcil, who took us to the next level. Nothing is more gratifying to realize that I helped enfranchise over 300,000 voters in NM to be able to exercise their fundamental human right to vote in a public election. 

It will be fun to watch in 2026 how the major parties reach out to independent voters and the party that does it best will reap the rewards. The bill takes effect in the 2026 election cycle. As a group, our position is that it does not benefit one party over another and nationally that seems to be the case. 

I would hope candidates that might not get the full-throated endorsement of the major parties might be encouraged to run realizing they can run a primary in either party targeting independent voters who are not going to care if the candidate espouses typical party orthodoxy.  

There is good data that independents are diverse, but tend to reflect the districts they come from. In other words they are not going to be a lot further left or right than their own neighborhoods.

As a whole, they don’t want to be told who to vote for and don’t want the binary choice of the parties which have tracked further left and right over the years. They want to hear about the issues and concrete solutions. Which party will do that for them? It could lead to more moderate candidates getting elected, but there is no clear evidence of that. 

The biggest change will simply be having 330,000 new potential voters--23 percent of all registered voters-eligible to vote in state primaries. Given that 50% of veterans and young people are registered as independent voters nationally and 30% + of Native American communities, there is a chance those groups could have an impact on primary elections. The main thing is that their constitutional right to vote is finally protected. 

Thanks, Bob. Just how many of the independents will decide to vote in the primaries is uncertain. Turnout for independents is usually lower than for voters in the major parties. We'll start to get some answers next year beginning with the June primary where candidates will compete for an open gubernatorial seat and many other offices. 

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Wednesday, April 09, 2025

MLG Calls Out The National Guard To Respond To ABQ Crime Wave Even As Mayor Contends Crime Is Down, Critics Pounce; Deployment Could Be Prelude To Special Legislative Session, Plus: Mayoral Candidates Clamor For Edge  

The National Guard to Albuquerque? 
 
When we heard the news Tuesday that MLG was deploying up to 70 National Guard troops to help fight crime in ABQ we flashed back to the summer of '71 when we first arrived in the city. We were greeted by a curfew and armed national guardsmen speeding  down city streets in the wake of the riots that had broken out that June. Our new hometown suddenly seemed dangerous and sitting on a knife's edge. 

This time the the Guard presence is controversial and accompanied by stinging criticism about the state of the state's largest city. 
 
The Guard will be deployed on a soft mission, aimed at freeing up more APD officers to patrol the streets. But that air of danger ABQ held in those troubled days over half century ago is back today, despite repeated efforts by the Governor, Mayor and APD Chief to reverse a crime wave unprecedented in both scope and staying power. 

In his letter to the Governor requesting the Guard presence, APD Chief Medina said:
  
(The Guard) will assist APD in multiple areas, including scene security and traffic control at critical incidents, medical assistance and humanitarian efforts along Central, Prisoner Transport Unit assistance, transit security enhancement, Metro Court security support, aviation/Sunport security assistance, Shield Unit case preparation support and APD Drone Program operational assistance. 
 
Although the Guard does respond to natural disasters, enlisting it in the crime fight without having the troops actually fighting crime tries to make it into something like the Red Cross or Salvation Army and not a highly-trained military force. The troops will not be wearing uniforms, but "polos" and not sporting arms, according to the Mayor. The Guv and Medina acknowledged the Guard will have to have special training before being sent to ABQ for their hands-off and out of the ordinary mission.
 
Just what have the Governor and Mayor stepped in here? It doesn't have a pleasant smell and we'll leave it at that.

(MLG news conference here. News release, executive order and Chief Medina letter here.)
 
The Governor said she declared an emergency and deployed the Guard in response to that request from Medina. 
 
We won't say she put a gun to his head but the action does appear aimed at bolstering her failed crime package and could be a prelude to her calling a special session on crime. But she says no decision on a special is coming down quickly as she continues to grapple with opposition from key Dem lawmakers. 

POLITICAL IMPACT
 
On the local level bringing the Guard in would seem to serve the cause of the opponents of Mayor Keller in the November election. They can portray it as a desperate act to control crime even as the Governor and Keller have failed to do so over the past six years. 
 
The problem is that the three major foes of Keller--former BernCo Sheriff Darren White, ABQ City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo--are splitting the anti-Keller vote, leaving him free to roam about the building, or in this case riding in a National Guard jeep and throwing candy to pedestrians.
 
It was a Republican legislator, state Sen. Nicole Tobiassen, who was among the first to rip into Keller:
 
Albuquerque’s crime crisis is a testament to the absolute failure of Mayor Keller and his progressive policies. It’s sad that his own police chief had to go over his head and seek state resources in order to try and keep up with the rampant violent crime, drug trafficking, juvenile crime, and gang activity that plagues our city. Mayor Keller and the progressive Democrats' failed leadership have made our community into a literal war zone and we must change course before not even state resources can combat the chaos allowed in Albuquerque. This plea for help comes on the heels of a legislative session where Democrat lawmakers denied or killed every single substantive public safety proposal. Elections have consequences and city residents have seen enough. 
 
Sen. Tobiassen
Mayor Keller said at a news conference, (where he did not appear very jolly), that the Guard will add to the "momentum" the city has in fighting crime, displaying stats that have ABQ crime down in "almost" all major categories and declining for the first three months of the year. (News conference video here.)
 
But do people really feel that or believe it as the Governor contradicts him? In fact. . .
 
Recent outlandish crimes in the metro continue to play into MLG's hands but when haven't they? And when have they resulted in legislative action on her crime bills? They just haven't.

She faces a public increasingly numbed by crime and homelessness which are becoming generational problems here. There are no simple or quick solutions.
 
The fact that the Guard is being called in only reinforces the legislative viewpoint that APD and Mayor Keller are not getting the job done and more laws are not going to help.
 
The Governor gets credit for still caring and for fighting her deepening descent into lame-duck irrelevance. But she's already sent the state police here to battle crime, declared a gun emergency that was overturned in court and seen her crime package wither in this year's legislative session and a special session before that. 
 
We'd like to have some constructive suggestions for her but we're as perplexed as anyone. We do know we'll feel better when the Guard leaves the city just as we were back in 1971--even though this time the danger will remain.

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Tuesday, April 08, 2025

Senate Watch: Ben Ray Expected To Go For A Second Term Next Year But If He Didn't A Likely Successor Is In The Wings 

Sen. Lujan
It's assumed that Dem Senator Ben Ray Lujan will stand for re-election next year but he has not officially announced. At the end of last year his campaign account held $1.213 million, an ample amount at this stage of the cycle. 

He spent a total of $7.5 million in winning the seat over Republican Mark Ronchetti in 2020 who spent just $3.5 million. But Lujan only won that race by 6.1 percent, a performance that brought criticism of how the campaign was managed. 

While Lujan, 52, has not yet officially announced his plans, Republicans are not beating down the door to get into the race. None has announced and there are no prominent names circulating.

The fact that the last Republican elected to the Senate here was Sen. Pete Domenici when he was re-elected in 2002 is not helping to lure ambitious Republicans into the contest. 

So what would happen in the unlikely event of Lujan deciding not to run for another term? Certainly Republicans would emerge but the Democrats would have no problem getting a top tier candidate. 

The most obvious would be ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury although her left-leaning politics might be a hurdle. However, consultants say votes from ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces would be more than enough for her to keep the seat in the D column. 

Another possible is Attorney General Raul Torres but generally the edge goes to those already in the House. Think Lujan and Heinrich who moved from the House to Senate seats. 

IN THE WINGS

Rep. Stansbury
Stansbury, 46, took heat when she held up a sign at Trump's February speech to Congress that said: "This Is Not Normal." Critics called it for not being serious and a PR stunt.

But Stansbury is actually quite serious about what is happening in DC as she takes to heart a major role in oversight of the administration:

Rep Stansbury, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency, led Committee Democrats in introducing a Resolution of Inquiry to investigate DOGE’s unsanctioned use of government data and artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on American privacy and national security. “The American people demand to know why Elon Musk and DOGE are hacking our private and sensitive data and what they are doing with it. This includes Social Security, IRS, Treasury, and other highly sensitive data, I have dropped an oversight resolution demanding the Administration provide answers about what it is doing with our data and how it is using Artificial Intelligence to data mine our systems. It is our duty to fight for answers and get to the bottom of what exactly DOGE and Musk are doing. . ."

Not that she will get much of an answer from the administration but her determination to take a lead role in the nitty gritty of urgently needed oversight, not only protesting with a sign, puts her in the league of possible future US Senators. (Not that Ben Ray is going anywhere. Not that we know of.)

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Monday, April 07, 2025

Dem Guv Primary Gets More Serious; Veteran Political Consultant For Big Bill And MLG Signs With Underdog Bregman, Plus: Haaland Is Endorsed By Noted Civil Rights Leader 

Contarino
The '26 race for the Democratic nomination for governor is getting more serious. 

The veteran Democratic consultant who helped bring home two gubernatorial wins each for Governors Bill Richardson and Lujan Grisham has picked sides for next year's contest and he's going with Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman.

That word from a reliable source close to Bregman's campaign who said the addition of Dave Contarino as the chief strategist "will help level the playing field" with front-runner Deb Haaland who announced her candidacy in February.  

He added:

Contarino will work to nationalize this race and make it about who can win the general election.

Bregman is expected to announce his candidacy Thursday afternoon at an event in Las Vegas.  

Contarino is nearly legendary in state political circles, although years ago he moved to Louisville from where he practices his trade today.

He became widely known when he brought home a win for Bill Richardson in 2002 and then presided over his 2006 re-election bid to score another victory.

In addition, Contarino, 63, served as Richardson's chief of staff during his first term.

For MLG, Contarino helped engineer a hard-fought 2012 Democratic primary win for the ABQ congressional seat and then aided her 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial campaigns.

In between he has teamed with longtime Dem consultant Amanda Cooper to run a PAC financed by labor that has delivered consistent wins in state legislative races. 

In Kentucky, in 2023, he headed a PAC for the re-election bid of Gov. Andy Beshear who won a second term.

OLD TIES 

Gov. Richardson
Bregman was good friends with Big Bill who died in 2023. They shared a passion for sports and politics. 

In 2009 when Richardson's foes were dragging Contarino into the scandals surrounding the administration, attorney Bregman was at his side. 

Contarino brings deep experience to the Bregman bench including in advertising, polling, organization and overall strategy. 

His hiring is also a sign that Bregman anticipates having sufficient funds to be competitive with Haaland who has already raised $2 million. 

MLG has not endorsed any candidate. She appointed Bregman in 2023 as BernCo DA to fill a vacancy. He then went on to win election to the post last November.

She also apppointed him as chairman of her Organized Crime Commission and worked with him on crime bills that failed to get approved at the '25 legislature. 

The Governor also has close ties to Haaland and one of her top aides--Caroline Buerkle--has endorsed the former Sec. of Interior. 

Haaland's camp has signed longtime Dem consultant, Scott Forrester, as well as Dominic Gabello who was campaign manager for Lujan Grisham.

All these Dem consultants are friends so it will be interesting to watch as they try to out fox each other in what is fast becoming an entertaining primary. The stakes are high. The winner will be favored in the general election.

HUERTA FOR HAALAND

Haaland & Huerta
Haaland marched Saturday in ABQ with longtime civil rights leader Dolores Huerta, 95, at the Annual César Chávez Celebration during which Huerta endorsed Haaland, saying:

Deb Haaland is a true public servant who always places the needs of working people first. She stands strong in the face of adversity and continues to be on the front lines fighting for justice. New Mexico needs a proven leader with the courage to fight for all New Mexicans. Times are tough but we will continue to thrive alongside leaders like Deb Haaland whose work lets us remain hopeful and dedicated to creating a more fair and just New Mexico. 

Haaland and Huerta were also at Saturday's ABQ Hands Off rally held to protest Trump's policies. The event drew several thousand to Civic Plaza

MAYOR'S RACE

Reader Carrie Garcia's comments on the ABQ mayoral race Thursday drew responses from two of the city's progressive leaders. This from Oriana Sandoval of the Center for Civic Policy

Joe: Your reader “Carrie Garcia” mentioned the Center for Civic Policy (CCP) in your April 3 post. CCP is a 501(c)(3) organization that does not engage in political activity, including electioneering and candidate recruitment. The claim that CCP is engaged in recruiting mayoral candidates. . .is blatantly false.  

And from Andrea Serrano of Olé:  

Hi Joe, It’s interesting your reader “Carrie Garcia” wrote so confidently about OLÉ - and missed the mark completely. OLÉ is a member-based 501(c)4 organization and while it is true that we endorse candidates who: A. complete our questionnaire and B. are aligned with our values, we have not endorsed in the 2025 Mayoral race and will do so later this spring. Focusing on issues that affect workers and families, we support candidates who deliver for New Mexicans and not corporations. I invite “Carrie” to email us at info@olenm.org if she has any further questions about our process and our organization.

Meanwhile, this news lurks over the campaign:

The city of Albuquerque’s independent watchdog agency has issued an unusual public notice aimed at its citizen oversight committee, which has yet to make public nine finished internal investigations into alleged misconduct at City Hall. In an “Update to Citizens of Albuquerque” released Monday, city Inspector General Melissa R. Santistevan wrote that the pending reports “deal with fraud, waste, or abuse that impact our City. Some of these reports have been completed for months without citizen awareness.” In a Journal interview, she wouldn’t disclose the topics.

Also, conservative radio talk host Eddy Aragon, who announced a mayoral candidacy earlier this year, tells us he will not be running because the field is "too crowded."

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

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