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Thursday, May 01, 2025

A New Generation Faces An Old Scourge; New Study Ranks Teen Drug Abuse Here At Second Worst In The Nation And Overall Drug Use Highest In USA, Plus: A Memorial Banco 

New Mexico's generations-long struggle with drug addiction sadly continues into the current one, with a new study reporting that not only does the state have the highest rate of drug abuse in the nation but that the state's teenagers rank first in the nation for the percentage of drug users.

The WalletHub report is devastating for the human tragedy it represents and also because it comes against a backdrop of unimaginable wealth for state government created by the ongoing oil boom. 

It gets worse.

The study confirms what the state knows too well. Drug treatment has failed to keep up with the rampant addiction and ranks New Mexico second in the nation for the number of "adults with unmet drug treatment needs." 

From the study:

New Mexico has the biggest drug problem in the U.S., especially when it comes to teenagers. The state has the highest percentage of teens using illicit drugs and the highest share of teenagers who report having tried marijuana before age 13. New Mexico has the third-highest share of adults who use illicit drugs, as well. New Mexico also lags behind other states when it comes to putting policies in place to discourage drug use or help people overcome it. For example, the state does not have employee drug testing laws, and it has the second-highest share of adults with drug problems who didn’t get treatment. It also has the fifth-highest share of children who lived with anyone who had a problem with alcohol or drugs.

The legalization of marijuana here, as we and others futilely warned, has been an epic failure in a state with a fragile population so prone to drug abuse.

The Governor and Legislature finally responded more robustly to the behavioral health crisis this past session, passing a system reboot in hopes of stemming the wave of addiction trapping so many in desperation.

The WalletHub study is a stark reminder to policymakers that treatment for teens demands special attention. 

As for those seeking reasons for the surge in juvenile crime here, the study obviously offers some. 

New Mexico needs to get addicted to drug treatment, education and prevention and stop idly watching so many of its youth sink out of sight. But you already know that.

 FRED'S BANCO

Allen Sanchez, Monahan & Sen. Campos
Former US Senator and revered New Mexican Fred Harris who died last November at 94 is being honored by his friends in a special way.

A memorial--The Fred Harris Memorial Banco--in honor of the '76 presidential candidate, productive Oklahoma lawmaker and UNM poly sci professor--is now situated at his beloved Barelas Coffee House in ABQ's South Valley. He regularly met there with his buddies to dissect the news of the day as have so many other notable personalities of La Politica. 

Those friends are responsible for the charming Spanish Colonial style bench crafted in northern New Mexico in Fred's honor and now in the restaurant's lobby. 

The name plate reads: "Senador, Profesor, y Amigo del pueblo" (Friend of the People) with a commemorative plaque of Harris above.

With your blogger at the banco and on the left is CHI St. Joseph's President Allen Sanchez. On the right is longtime state Senator Pete Campos

The photo followed a tasty lunch where we dished up lots of red and the latest mitote including the enduring legacy of Fred Harris. 

"It's a fine tribute indeed." Remarked Sen. Campos. 

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Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Is Crime Card Enough For Mayoral Challengers? APD Stats Show Large Decrease For First Quarter; Perception Not Reality Could Be Decider; Plus: House Speaker Endorses Keller In Battle For Progressive Vote, And: Field Grows to 11 Contenders 

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." How often have we heard that old saw in relation to crime here and elsewhere? 

The disconnect between what is reality according to law enforcement and what people feel is a very real phenomenon and will be central to the race for ABQ mayor. 

The list of challengers hoping to replace Mayor Tim Keller, who is seeking a third consecutive term, has now grown to ten. That's right. Double digits. That's the most mayoral candidates we can recall since the modern form of government was adopted in 1974 and when over 30 candidates competed to become the first mayor. 

All ten challengers (if they make the ballot) will be pounding the table over crime, the one issue that rises above the rest--as is usually the case in a city with a very long history of a crime rate above the national average. 
 
The difference in recent years has been the rise to even higher levels. But there are signs that the city in 2025 is finally getting a break in key crime categories as reported by APD.
 
Is it for real? Is crime really going down or have the number of people reporting crimes stopped reporting them out of fear, frustration over slow police response or because they want to avoid a hike in their insurance rates? 
 
When it comes to the homicide rate, there is no question it is down. Murder rarely goes unreported. 

--Through March of this year APD records 11 homicides compared to the same time last year when there were 21. That's a 48 percent plunge. 

--APD stats show a 46 percent dive in auto theft so far this year from 1,738 to 914, a change of 47 percent.

--Residential burglaries have dropped 19 percent for the first quarter of the year compared to last year.

--Robberies, says APD, are down 37 percent, from 234 to 148. 

Candidates seeking to replace Keller may or may not argue with those stats. Some will surely point out that while the crime rate is coming down, it is declining from record high levels and is still at an unacceptable rate.
 
MORE CONCENTRATION?  
 
Something else appears to be happening on the ABQ crime front, at least anecdotally. Crime seems to be even more concentrated in the SE Heights International District ("War Zone").

Will the stats (if they continue to show a crime drop) and the concentration of crime in the SE Heights  and not the city at large be recognized by voters as their personal reality, making it tougher on the tough on crime candidates? 

Years ago when I was advising former Governor Dave Cargo who was then running for ABQ mayor, I asked him why New Mexico was not more aroused by the high levels of poverty and crime. He answered, "Joe, it's because they don't see it."

How much the electorate sees and feels the city's crime problem (as well as homelessness) will be as important in this election as those APD stats showing the crime rate going in the right direction.
 
The bottom line? Perception is often reality. 

NATIONAL GUARD

Gov. Lujan Grisham's controversial deployment of the National Guard to ABQ to aid in the fight against crime led to this NYT piece piece in which residents weighed the pros and con. 
 
FIGHT FOR PROGRESSIVES 
 
Speaker Martinez
Meanwhile the Keller camp is not ignoring the push for progressive votes by candidate Alex Uballez, They come with this counterweight from state House Speaker Javier Martinez:
 
I'm backing Mayor Tim Keller for re-election. As your Speaker, a lifelong Albuquerque resident, and the son of immigrants, I know how tough these times are. That’s why we need a mayor with Tim’s experience . . . and to stand up to Trump’s agenda. . . Through Trump 1.0, COVID, and national crises around crime and homelessness, Tim delivered: more affordable housing than any mayor in city history, the nation’s first social worker-led 911 response (ACS), and the city’s first comprehensive homelessness system that’s helping thousands off the streets. Tim Keller is battle-tested, results-driven—and the best-positioned candidate to win in November. Let’s keep moving Albuquerque forward.
 
The latest and 11th official candidate in the mayoral race is Daniel Chavez, a parking lot owner who has now filed his paperwork with the city. 

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Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Ben Ray Lujan Preps Re-elect; Spokesman Confirms Run For Second Term; No GOP Foes Yet; After Powerhouse House Career Lujan's Future Senate Course Is Weighed  

Sen. Lujan (Journal)
It's not direct from the horse's mouth but a "spokesperson" for Senator Ben Ray Lujan says he will, as expected, seek a second term in 2026.

That ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury was mentioned here a a possible replacement if Lujan chose to step away might have his office stepping on the gas. There are also plenty of others on the Democratic bench who would jump in if Lujan were to beg off.

We have watched senate re-election decisions closely over the years and with caution. Before they went public with their decisions not to seek re-election, Senators Pete Domenici, Tom Udall and Jeff Bingaman were all very coy, probably to avoid looking as weak lame ducks. That's why an unequivocal statement direct from the candidate is preferred.

But we'll take the Lujan spokesman's comment at face value while also mentioning that Ben Ray has a robust $2.075 million in campaign cash on hand, signaling his run for a second six year term. 

The senator recently held a town hall where he looked and acted every bit the candidate as he fielded questions from a crowd of Santa Fe liberals concerned about the Trump administration. 

He also conducted a business roundtable in ABQ on Trumps tariffs as he steps up his activity for this election cycle.

Lujan is not a firebrand and favors a centrist approach while voting his party's line. That positions him to take advantage of Trump's unpopularity within his party while still appealing to those outside that circle.

Republicans have not indicated they will mount a serous challenge and he starts as a heavy favorite for re-election. 

HEADY DAYS

Lujan and Pelosi
Lujan's march to the center of power was a straight line when he served in the US House for eight years (2009-2021). 

He was picked in 2014 as the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). He soon was a regular national media presence, guiding the Dems in 2016 to to a six seat pick up in the House. In 2018 the big payoff came when Lujan presided over the campaign that took back the House from the Republicans.

Lujan's chief talent is not legislating but political strategy and party leadership. In 2018 he rose to the rank of Assistant House Speaker (formerly known as Assistant Majority Leader) under his mentor Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Those were heady days for the native New Mexican and some observers thought he might stay put in the House with an eye toward an even higher leadership slot and more power. But the lure of an open senate seat could not be resisted. 

Lujan's rise slowed in the Senate. He said the stroke he suffered in early 2022 "changed his perspective." 

He was recently named to the powerful Senate Finance Committee as he regroups. The question is whether Lujan's ultimate promise will manifest itself in the Senate. 

Is he again on track to accumulate more power for the state or will his career be more low key? An answer will come in due time, one supposes. At 52, Lujan is a veritable teenybopper in the aged Senate, a place where the long game is your ace in the hole.

Lujan's '26 campaign will not only feature a jousting over ideas but also reveal just how deep his ambition still burns. 

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Monday, April 28, 2025

Haaland Vs. Sanchez? Political Pros Now See That Match-Up As The Mostly Likely For '26 Governor Race  

Sanchez
It is a long way off but the smart money now says the most likely match-up for the 2026 gubernatorial race will be Democrat Deb Haaland versus former GOP Lt. Governor John Sanchez.

Former Sec. of Interior Haaland launched her campaign for the Democratic nomination in February. 

Her main challenger is Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, a colorful personality who overplayed his hand when he announced his candidacy on horseback and in full cowboy regalia. His urban background made that a bridge too far and he now has ground to make up.

The expected entry into the contest by conservative Democrat and former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima will be another burden for Bregman as he battles his party's large progressive wing and as Miyagishima brings some intriguing ideas to the table.

This competition for the nonprogressive vote will give Haaland, 64, breathing room to polish her campaign which has been criticized for its low energy optics and ambiguous reasoning over why she wants to be Governor.

Sanchez, according to long-term reliable sources, is now expected to announce a candidacy (in June?) and would immediately become the front-runner for the GOP nomination. This would be his second time carrying the party banner. He snared the nomination way back in 2002 and then suffered a general election defeat at the hands of Bill Richardson.

A GOP consultant tracking it all tells us:

Sanchez sees an opening against Haaland who has not been tested in a statewide race and whose appeal could be blunted by her performance. His hope is that he can break through in his hometown of ABQ where Democrats have been landsliding the Republicans for so long and also chip away at Hispanic voters who revealed dissatisfaction with the Democrats in the November election. 

Republican insiders believe that Sanchez should have little trouble dispatching Republican hopeful and Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull in next year's primary. Former Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura  is giving conflicting signals about making a run.

THE SANCHEZ ANGLE

Haaland
Sanchez, 62, ran successfully for Lt. Governor under Susana Martinez in 2010 and 2014. He has contacts in all of the state's counties, the ability to raise oil money plus his own personal fortune from his roofing business. 

The Martinez wing of the party has nothing but contempt for Sanchez but stopping him would be a formidable task especially since the possibility of a Trump endorsement of Sanchez looms large. During the 2020 campaign Trump named him as his Hispanic Prosperity Initiative chairman and praised him at a White House ceremony

Martinez, Nakamura et al. are on the outside looking in on Trump whose endorsement either publicly or quietly would go a long way toward Sanchez securing a big win at the GOP preprimary convention next March. That, in turn, would boost his momentum heading into the June primary.

We first covered Sanchez's possible entry into the '26 race in January including reporting on his past political travails. Since then signals and chatter that he is getting in have grown stronger with the crescendo building.

While Sanchez is hopeful he can turn around the stranded Republican ship, it remains a gargantuan task because of the party's historic decline here in the past decade. 

Sanchez is an affable personality with broad appeal in the GOP, probably making the nomination not much more than a lay up. Actually taking the state's seat of power away from the Democrats will be a longshot. But as Dylan sang: 

"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose." 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

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