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Thursday, July 27, 2023

Third Congressional District Profiled In Our Final Installment of Exclusive Previews From Almanac of American Politics; District A Bit Less Dem But Still Heart Of El Norte 

Today we have our final installment of the Almanac of American Politics review of the state's
three congressional districts from the forthcoming 2024 edition which details all 435 districts, their members, all governors, campaign finance and much more. 

Our partnership with the Almanac to present the exclusive previews comes with an added benefit for our readers--15 percent off the latest edition. Just use the code NMPOLITICS15 at checkout to take advantage of this special offer for your copy of the 'bible" of American politics.

Our final installment today has all you need to know about the newly redrawn New Mexico Third congressional District. 

Teresa Leger Fernandez was elected in 2020 to an open seat in northern New Mexico, running on a long record of service on local and national levels, with a well-organized campaign and support from key interest groups. Her victory created what was the largest state all-women delegation in the House. She replaced Democrat Ben Ray Lujan, who won the Senate seat of retiring Sen. Tom Udall. Born and raised in Las Vegas, New Mexico, Leger Fernandez got her bachelor’s degree from Yale University and a law degree from Stanford. She returned to her home state to work on affordable housing and community development, as well as advocacy for local tribes. With her “social impact” law firm in Santa Fe, she also represented minority businesses, including with litigation. She was a White House fellow for President Bill Clinton and vice chair of the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation during the Obama administration.

In her first political campaign, she invoked the theme “Protect What You Love.” Contending that families, communities, democracy and the planet were under attack, she added, “when you care deeply about something, you need to act on it.” She supported the Green New Deal, including the phase-out of coal-fired power plants in part of her district. 

Rep. Leger Fernandez
In its editorial endorsement of Leger Fernandez, the Santa Fe New Mexican wrote that she “excels at fighting and winning battles” and “brought high achievement at every level of her life.” 

The other leading Democratic contenders were first-term state Rep. Joseph Sanchez and Valerie Plame, a former CIA operations officer and book author. Plame, who cited her familiarity with the Los Alamos National Laboratory when she moved to the district after leaving the CIA, had been well-known in Washington. Amid extensive controversy, her covert status was revealed after she and her husband, a U.S. diplomat, publicly criticized the George W. Bush administration for its handling of the war in Iraq. “I want to take that searing life experience and put it to good use for my community,” Plame told the Huffington Post. With her national fundraising base, Plame’s $2.2 million made her the biggest spender in the primary.

Leger Fernandez spent $1.4 million in the primary. She was endorsed by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and EMILY’s List, which supports Democratic women who support abortion rights. The political action committees of those two groups spent another $800,000 on her behalf. Rep. Tony Cardenas of California said the Hispanic Caucus backed Leger Fernandez because minority candidates from low-income areas often struggle financially against candidates with national support whom he called “opportunists.” 

 Leger Fernandez won the primary with 43 percent of the vote to 25 percent for Plame and 12 percent for Sanchez. She took 13 of the 16 counties in the sprawling district, including each of the eight largest except for rural Rio Arriba County, which was the base for Sanchez. In November, she had no problem with her 59%-41% victory over Republican Alexis Johnson, an environmental engineer for oil companies. 

 In the House, Leger Fernandez got seats on the Natural Resources and Education and Labor committees, plus the leadership-centered House Administration Committee. In December 2022, Congress completed action on her bill to make it illegal to export Native American cultural items and other artifacts that were illegally obtained. Leger Fernandez took an interest in home-state energy issues, while filing a proposal to clean up abandoned oil and gas wells. With California Rep. Ted Lieu, she filed a bill to create a Federal Writers Project, modeled on a Depression-era program, to assist writers who suffered financially from the pandemic. 

In her reelection bid, Leger Fernandez had a rematch in the redrawn district that had become less Democratic. She won, 58%-42%. Her 40,000-vote lead in Santa Fe County, which cast one-fourth of the total vote, exceeded her nearly 38,000 vote lead districtwide. In its endorsement of her reelection, the Santa Fe New Mexican described Leger Fernandez as “a problem solver [who] loves getting down in the weeds” of policy. 

3rd District Santa Fe: 

“The dancing ground of the sun” is what the Pueblo Indians called the land of northern New Mexico, where the long vistas, dotted with low-lying scrub, are painted in pastel hues in the cold light and clear air. For 100 years, artists have been coming here, attracted by the scenery and by a unique civilization that is part Indian, part Anglo, part Spanish, and a little Mexican. The Indians were here first and built adobe pueblos, including some of the world’s earliest apartment buildings. The Spanish conquistadors and priests brought the Catholic religion, the baroque architectural accents, and the Spanish language. The Palace of the Governors, built in Santa Fe in 1610, is now a museum on Santa Fe’s Plaza and is the nation’s oldest extant public building. 

Along the back roads in Rio Arriba and Taos counties, one can find a religion that mixes Catholicism with adaptations of Indian festivals, buildings not that much different from the old pueblos, and a standard of living reminiscent of the Indian past. Concentrated in and around the Navajo reservation in the west (and outside of Santa Fe), many of the district’s Indians live in abject poverty. It’s quite a contrast with the ski lodges in the Taos Valley, the high-security research facilities of Los Alamos, which has the second-highest median income of any city in the nation (behind Washington D.C.) and has among the most Ph.D.s per capita, thanks to the National Laboratory, and the affluent lifestyles of modern-day Santa Fe. 

The 3rd District of New Mexico contains most of the state’s historic Spanish-speaking and Indian regions. This district runs from the High Plains along the Texas border, past the haunting Sangre de Cristo Mountains, through the vast ridges and isolated buttes in the center, to the windy and dusty desert-like plateau in the west. Santa Fe, which has the most museums of any city in the nation except New York, remains the lively and dominant center. The local economy has remained strong, with a “gray” growth as the number of residents 65 and older has come close to surpassing those 18 and younger. Continuing wildfires in the mountains led the Federal Emergency Management to pay $2.5 billion to compensate the victims of botched prescribed burns extending back to 2000. 

In the 2022 redistricting, the 3rd lost to the 1st District Rio Rancho, which had been the most populous city in the 3rd. Its rural southeast corner scooped up the area from Clovis to Hobbs; which had been part of the 2nd District. The changes decreased Joe Biden’s win from 58%-40% to 54%-44%.

We hoped you enjoyed the series as we prep for the first defense of the new congressional districts in 2024. Again, for your 15 percent discount to the Almanac just enter the code NMPOLITICS15 at checkout. 

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Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Will Dark Money Debate Shed Light On Leger Fernandez? Foes Pick At Congress Front-Runner, Plus: Torres Small: The Tortured Soul Of La Politica? 

John Blair
Can "Dark Money" shed some light on northern Dem congressional front-runner Teresa Leger Fernandez and close the daylight she has put between herself and her six opponents?

Two dark money groups--PACS that are not required to disclose who gives them money--have bought $300,00 in TV ads to boost attorney Leger. That has brought the wrath of her opponents--especially former congressional staffer John Blair who is demanding that TLF publicly rebuke the PACS and "disavow" their support.

He made the point in a KOAT-TV debate Sunday and was echoed by fellow candidates Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya and Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna.

The problem? According to one consultant not involved in the campaigns, the dark money charge against Leger could hurt her with progressives who hold disdain for such PACS, but the electorate at large is probably not engaged. In fact when it comes to campaign money the public often goes MEGO--My Eyes Glaze Over.

Nevertheless Leger is firing back at Blair and company, with a finance Gator saying:

. . . The TLF campaign cannot by federal election law coordinate or in any way communicate or cooperate with any outside groups that decide to support her candidacy. To be very clear, none of this so-called "dark money" has gone to Teresa's campaign -- it is separate outside spending that is completely out of her control. For her campaign's part, she is not taking corporate PAC money and the majority of her support is coming from in-state. . . Despite (Blair's) attempts to be relevant and his proclamations about End Citizens United and dark money, TLF is the candidate that has actually been endorsed by End Citizens United and Let America Vote, the nation's leading groups on campaign finance reform.

Maybe Blair got the first part right--he found something to hang his hat on in trying to take Leger down a peg but the second part--calling into question her character and motives--eludes him because his campaign lacks TV money and the dark money issue is not all that stark.

That brings up how TLF has gotten off easy in this campaign. In a glowing endorsement the New Mexican praises her years as a water rights attorney and for her community involvement, but there's been no news stories--none--about any bumps in the road for her career or life hat might have voters questioning their support of her. For a candidate over 60, that is a big time break.

So an essentially unvetted TLF is poised to become the next northern congressional representative. It will be up to the Republican nominee to pick up anything the Dems left on the table, but the district is so heavily D it would take take a bombshell disclosure to stop her. That is not the case in a contested Dem primary.

Leger Fernandez has run the best campaign of the bunch, had excellent fund-raising, is generally liberal on the issues and has solid organizational abilities as witnessed by her big preprimary convention win. That's what the voters know about her. That they don't know a lot more can't be blamed only on a burdened press but the inability of her six challengers to effectively challenge her.

TORTURED SOUL?

XTS
Observers on the left are left to wonder if southern NM Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small is the most tortured soul in La Politica. She worked as a staffer for one of the most liberal senators in the nation--Tom Udall--and she is married to one of the most liberal members of the NM House--Nathan Small. Yet her supporters say her conservative/moderate district demands that she be pragmatic. That can rankle a large contingent of voters in more liberal Las Cruces who were instrumental in getting her the gig in 2018 and who say she finds herself at odds with the principles she really believes.

The newest blow to those doubters came when XTS was one of only 14 House Dems to vote against the latest coronavirus relief, a $3 trillion measure that includes aid for New Mexico to close its budget gap as well as for financially stricken cities under 500,000, some of which are included in XTS's sprawling district.

But she turned thumbs turned down on the bill that passed the House as she shivers at the prospect of losing the seat this year in a district that Trump arrived by ten points in '16 and that she won by just 2 points in '18. She said:

Hard times call for strong priorities, and Congress should put aside partisan politics to rebuild through smart infrastructure investments,” she said in a statement after the vote, adding that she supported relief to states, local communities and tribal governments and hazard pay for essential workers, but more than $1 trillion in the bill “was spent elsewhere."

Pragmatism may be the order of the day but it doesn't earn XTL any profile in courage award. Her Dem critics say she could have voted for the measure to show support for states and cities, healthcare workers and first responders whose jobs could be cut due to budget deficits. Then she could have voiced opposition to parts of it and later supported an amended version. The bill is expected to be negotiated with the Senate.

XTL will get a break from the political torture chamber in the June primary where she faces no opposition but come the fall she'll be back in it.

BEN RAY AND BIG BILL

Reader Rick Lass in Mimbres picks up on an error we made in our Monday blog about high-level political endorsements:

Joe, Ben Ray Lujan for Congress in 2008. He served on the Public Regulation Commission (PRC) from 2005-2008. So either Gov. Richardson endorsed Lujan for PRC in 2004 or for Congress in 2008- or both? I know firsthand because I was the Green Party candidate for PRC in 2008 and the Dem was the Jerome Block Jr. I would not have been in the race if Lujan was running for re-election.

Thanks, Rick. Richardson actually endorsed Ben Ray for PRC in 2004 and that drew howls from Bob Perls who was challenging Ben Ray in the primary. We covered that on the blog in March of 2004.

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Thursday, April 23, 2020

MLG Takes Measured Pivot Toward Recovery Phase; Says Virus Curve Is "Flattened", Plus: New TV In Hot Northern Congress Race, Odd Endorsement in Key State Senate Primaries And Trying Hard To Burn Zozobra 

(Sanchez Saturno, New Mexican)
New Mexico received a long-awaited psychological boost Wednesday as the Governor announced the coronavirus curve has flattened and began a measured pivot toward what will be the eventual reopening of the state.

For now the state will stay in lockdown mode through May 15 but a NM Economic Recovery Council she appointed will recommend what and how will reopen once that stay-at-home order expires.

The 15 member council will be co-chaired by former GOP state Rep. Brian Moore of Clayton in Union County, one of a handful of the 33 counties that has yet to register a coronavirus case. He's a grocery store owner who became known to La Politica when he served briefly as a deputy chief of staff to Gov. Susana Martinez but lost an insider power struggle and was ousted. He was then named the state's DC lobbyist but that post was soon eliminated. Moore has also been a lobbyist for the NM Association of Counties. The other council co-chair is Christina Campos of Santa Rosa, an administrator at the ten bed Guadalupe Regional Hospital.

The leadership tilt of the council is toward rural New Mexico where discontent with MLG's handling of the virus crisis has been most criticized for being overly restrictive.

There are few recognizable names on the panel. That led one of the Alligators to wonder whether it would be very influential in getting New Mexicans to get on board with the reopening process and whether it would be very innovative in a post-corona world.

But it is a start or a restart, if you will. Ultimately, it will be the Governor who will take much of the blame or credit for what's to come and she appears to want a panel geared toward that, not one that is going to try to reinvent the wheel.

While the council was being announced the scuttlebutt at the Capitol over the future of  Olivia Padilla-Jackson, Secretary of the Department of Finance and Administration, became more intense. That department will be front and center as all things economic take center stage. Whether Padilla-Jackson will be around to see it was the question circulating and with few details beyond that.

LEANING FORWARD

In case those pushing for an immediate special legislative session to deal with the embryonic budget crisis thought they were on to something, MLG reiterated at her Wednesday news conference that while there will be a special it won't be until June "at the earliest." And she added:

By 2021 we expect that our revenues could be dramatically reduced and we’re gonna have to have a whole different set of strategies for education, health care, economic investments and the like.

One new strategy getting discussion is this: Why not take the $325 million established for the new early childhood trust fund and move that it into the state's reserves to help plug the massive deficit to come. Then get on the November ballot the proposed constitutional amendment for early childhood education that would tap money from the multi-billion dollar Land Grant Permanent Fund.

The trust fund approved by the legislature this year must be funded each year but where will the money come from in the post-crash economy? The Permanent Fund plan would provide for permanent long-term funding for early childhood. In addition, supporters estimate it would mean the hiring of some 3,000 early childhood educators, helping with the state's widespread unemployment problem. That's a lot of oomph from one move.

SLOW DOWN, VALERIE

Plame TV
Slow down, Valerie, you're making us feel guilty.

In her first TV spot northern Dem congressional candidate and onetime CIA spy Valerie Plame showcased her daredevil driving skills with a hot rod Camaro, skills that the spook agency taught her. Now she's back with a second spot that highlights the CIA obstacle course training she received.

Plame blitzes through the course with barely a huff or a puff as her brother/narrator cites her opposition to "Trump''s wall" and says her national security experience will help her fight the coronavirus. If you're voting for the most physically fit and agile of the candidates, Val is your hands down choice.

Bur her main rival, Teresa Leger Fernandez, is no slouch. In her first TV spot she ably wielded a shovel as she gave a hand to neighbors maintaining an acequia. Now in her second outing, she gets timely with the coronavirus crisis by taking note of her struggle with cancer, her recovery and her knowledge of the district's healthcare needs.

Plame and Leger are the money frontrunners in the six person field (Plame's cash on hand is $690,000. Leger reports $640,000) with Leger the vote-getting front-runner. Plame can drive like a NASCAR pro and face down an obstacle course like a grizzled Marine, but can she outmaneuver Leger?

This one is all D all the time. The winner June 2 goes to Congress and will face the obstacle course there.

ALLIGATOR INSIGHT

The ABQ Federation of Teachers (AFT) threw a major league curve ball when it endorsed three conservative Dem state Senators facing primary challenges from school teachers. The three--John Arthur Smith, Clemente Sanchez and Gabe Ramos--are key to the ruling conservative coalition in the Senate keeping power. One of our quarantined Alligators comes with some insight:

With the election in 2018 of several of its own union teacher-members, AFT was often heard around the Roundhouse touting the importance of having teachers as legislators. During the effort to strengthen our state labor laws this session, AFT was often heard talking about union solidarity. So, isn’t it a complete turnaround for them to avoid angering powerful incumbent Senators Smith and Sanchez, by refusing to endorse the union teacher-members running solid campaigns against those incumbents- as well as the educator running against Senator Ramos. Oh yes, all three of the challengers are women, so other progressives are flummoxed too.

Hmm. Has someone been playing Let's Make a Deal?

BURN HIM!

The event organizer who decides whether to burn Old Man Gloom September 4 (more famously known as Zozobra) says the giant puppet will feel the burn virus or no virus. There is a catch, however.

If health conditions are in question the burning will be of the digital variety where you watch on the computer or TV screen. Not bad but not the same. Still, we're sure they will still let everyone write down their worries and cares and burn them with Zozobra as he moans and groans and falls to the gourd. If he could only burn away the virus. If he did, we'd fight to give him a pardon.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From BernCo Clerk Linda Stover:

Good news Bernalillo County! We’re going to start issuing marriage licenses again. It will be by appointment only starting Monday, April 27. There will be social distancing requirements and at least one of you must be from New Mexico, but I am so pleased to resume this vital service.

All well and good, but after weeks of being cooped up there are probably as many couples looking for the divorce court to reopen as those looking to tie the knot.

Thanks for stopping by.

This is it. . .

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Monday, January 27, 2020

Campaign Updates: Plame Under Fire With Leger Fernandez On The Move, GOP Senate Hopeful Ronchetti Scorned As "Never Trumper" And Dems Playing Favorites In Yvette And Claire Combat? 

Valerie Plame
Celebrity combined with smarts can't be underestimated in modern politics but it's being put to the test in the race for the Democratic nomination for the northern congressional seat that will decide who succeeds Rep. Ben Ray Lujan in this heavy Dem district.

Valerie Plame stunned the crowded field with a boffo first TV ad and ran over her foes in the fund-raising department, garnering donations nationwide because of her status as a famous outed CIA spy. Now with the crucial March 7 preprimary convention nearing, where delegates will decide which contenders will get an official spot on the June 2 primary ballot, the long knives are coming out.

One of the sharpest was wielded by the NYT when it came with a piece that roughed Plame up over her tangled and controversial relationship with the nation's Jewish community. On the heels of that piece, Plame's chief Dem rival, attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez, (TLF) received yet more important endorsements including this one from the Rio Grande Chapter of the Sierra Club and another from the Latino Victory Fund. Earlier she scored the backing of Emily's List and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. (Not all of Plame's recent press has been bad. She got a hug in a profile by the Alibi).

Normally that might have been enough to claim the mantle of undisputed front-runner, but TLF lacks the celebrity of Plame as well as a known public service record. So while Plame wobbles from the blows, including the charge that she is an uninformed carpetbagger in the heavy Hispanic and Native American district, she has yet to hit the canvas.

Leger Fernandez
One thing does seem to be happening, however. The eight person race may be consolidating into a two way contest between Plame and Leger Fernandez. Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna is the other key player but his performance has been unsteady.

All three have enough cash for major media buys which will be critical, given their unfamiliarity in the sprawling district. No one is going away anytime soon.

Consultants are urging Plame and other contenders to go after Leger Fernandez before she starts running away, saying her record as an attorney has not been vetted and there could be opposition gold there. As this exciting race moves forward, the long knives will now be cutting in many directions.

RONCHETTI AND TRUMP

Another celebrity candidacy, that of Mark Ronchetti, the former weatherman turned GOP US Senate hopeful, is also coming under scrutiny as his foes fear his name ID may vault him to the winner's circle.

One of those leading the attacks is radio talk show host Eddy Aragon, who decided against a Senate run of his own and is now using his conservative ABQ airwaves--The Rock of Talk--to paint Ronchetti as a "never Trumper"' unworthy of GOP voters.

Aragon is a fervent Trump supporter. He is blasting the appearance of former GOP Gov. Susana Martinez at the February 1 Bernalillo County GOP Convention, arguing it is a ploy to win over delegates to the March 7 preprimary convention for Ronchetti. Martinez, who finished her governorship with a 32 percent approval rating, refused to support Trump in '16 and is widely distrusted by his supporters.

Aragon further says that former BernCo Sheriff Darren White, also a never Trumper and now a talk host on competing station KKOB, is now promoting Ronchetti for Senate.

Ronchetti, one of five candidates for the GOP nod to succeed retiring Dem Sen. Tom Udall, is concentrating on raising money and is not responding to the jabs of Aragon and others. He expressed support for Trump in his video announcing his candidacy and did so again in a recent fund-raising mailer.

The pro-Trumpers have claimed one victim. Geoff Snider, executive director of the BernCo GOP, was forced out of his position by the state party leadership when he said Trump supporters were "acting literally like Nazis."

There are five candidates for the GOP Senate nomination. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan faces token primary opposition. Pundits rank the Senate race likely Democratic.

CLAIRE VS. YVETTE

Chase
It appears the national Dems are more concerned about Claire Chase winning the southern GOP congressional nomination rather than her main rival Yvette Herrell. Why else would the DCCC bring up that controversy that cost Snider his job and say GOP voters could do something similar to Chase:

. . . Snider’s expulsion from the party should raise alarm bells for Claire Chase, who was outed as a ‘Never Trump’ Republican in September. Maybe that’s why Claire Chase been tweeting wildly about the President, in a desperate attempt to make New Mexico voters forget that Chase. . . has said repeatedly what she truly believes: that Trump is “an a**hole unworthy of the office. . . 

Herrell, the early favorite for the GOP nod, was defeated in '18 by Dem Xochitl Torres Small. National Dems may believe they know how to handle her in a rematch with Rep. Torres Small. Chase is young, articulate and unknown, If she gets the nomination, the D's will need a new and untested playbook.

Herrell vs. Chase and Plame vs. TLF. These heated races may soon need to hire Holly Holm as a referee.

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Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Dateline DC: Leading Contender Withdraws From US Attorney Consideration; Xochitl Hearing For Top AG Job Set And Leger Fernandez Brings Home Some Bacon  

Vince Ward
Vince Ward was a leading candidate for US Attorney but shortly after we posted a report about that we received this: .

 I recently withdrew my name from consideration because during the application process DOJ and the Government Ethics Office determined that one of my firm's cases (not a criminal case and not a case in NM) presented a conflict. I worked for several weeks to find a solution to the conflict without success. I am disappointed, but confident that the administration and delegation are vetting a diverse pool of candidates who believe the US Attorney's Office is an important tool for combatting violent crime in NM, promoting civil rights, especially with respect to instances of police misconduct, and strengthening the government-to-government relationship with the many sovereign Nations located around our beautiful State. I appreciate everyone who provided support and advice throughout the arduous vetting process, and I am sorry to disappoint them. 

We had earlier blogged that. . . 

An ABQ lawyer with a distinctly liberal pedigree is the leading contender to become the next US attorney for New Mexico, according to senior sources. Vince Ward, 46, a 2001 UNM School of Law grad, would also be the first African-American to hold the important law enforcement position. 

POTOMAC FEVER

Rep. Leger Fernandez
Keeping your blog in DC this Tuesday, word there is that the Senate Agriculture Committee confirmation hearing for former southern Dem Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small will take place Thursday morning. She has been nominated by the president for the position of Under Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development.

And northern US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez had no problem scooping up $74 million in "earmarks" for her sprawling district. Earmarks are back on the Hill after a decade long absence. 

The freshman Democratic lawmaker used most of her cash--$67 million--for the Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project. The cost of the years-long project that aims to bring reliable water service to more of the Navajo Reservation as well as Gallup has risen to $1.7 billion. A portion of the project has been built. Full completion is predicted for 2029. Leger Fernandez also secured $879,000 for broadband for Española. 

She said:

"I look forward to the Senate reaffirming their commitment to community reflected in our appropriations bills.” This year, the Appropriations Committee allowed each Member of Congress to request funding for up to 10 projects in their community for FY2022 and retained decision making authority to choose projects funded.

The other four members of the state's congressional delegation will also benefit from the return of earmarks. Their appropriations have not yet been announced.

THOSE GOVERNMENT JOBS

Uh-oh. More government-funded jobs. The economic diversification crowd is going to fall out of their summer hammocks: 

National engineering firm BlueHalo will invest $60 million in a 200,000-square-foot innovation and manufacturing center for space technology and “directed energy” systems at Kirtland Air Force Base, the company announced. The new facility, expected to open in fall 2022, will be the first industrial tenant to set up shop at a planned 70-acre mixed-use site known as MaxQ, which is currently under development on Kirtland property along the south side of Gibson between Carlisle and Truman.

The salaries are in the $90,000 range. Why would you want to "diversify" away from that?

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Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Delivering: NM DC Delegation Brings Home Xmas Cheer: Early Childhood Amendment On The Move; More Uncle Sam Aid For Fire Victims; Big Budget For Los Alamos And Two NM Reps In Hispanic Leadership 

Sen. Heinrich (Source NM)
New Mexico's DC delegation earned their Christmas presents this last week of the congressional session--with the exception of GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell who gets a lump of coal in her stocking. 

Senator Martin Heinrich flexed his muscle and quieted talk that the necessary congressional approval of the constitutional amendment for early childhood education approved by 70 percent of voters would stall in the final hours. 

Heinrich, the state's senior senator, worked it hard and delivered the deal to tap the over $20 billion Land Grant Permanent School Fund. The approval language is in the giant budget bill expected to get final passage Friday. 

With the Dems keeping control of the Senate next year Heinrich can continue to lean on and work with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Over the years the New York Senator has shown himself to be a good friend to New Mexico. Thanks, Chuck. 

The amendment approval will be no thanks to Rep. Herrell who lost her re-election bid to Democrat Gabe Vasquez. She's already seeking a rematch in '24 but dragging her heels on early childhood is going to hurt her in the ABQ portions of the southern congressional district--the same area that cost her the seat in November. Vasquez has not yet taken office but he's already looking stronger. Imagine the TV spots Herrell's opposition to the Heinrich deal has given the Vasquez campaign. 

(Shout out to GOP state Rep. Rebecca Dow who did her best to get Herrell to change her mind. Maybe Dow should run for that seat?)

BRINGING IT HOME 

Sen. Ben Ray Lujan brought home the bacon with blow-out numbers for Los Alamos Labs which employees thousands in the North. The Labs budget goes to $4.6 billion from $4 billion--a 16 percent boost. That will not be good news to anti-nuclear constituents but the Labs have been an integral part of the northern economy for 80 years. Already Los Alamos is overflowing with employees and filling Santa Fe buildings with personnel.

Heinrich remains key in watchdogging Los Alamos (and Sandia Labs) budgets from his perch as a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee and as chairman of the Military Construction subcommittee. As for Lujan, his health is restored and he is starting to live up to the expectations placed on him.

Northern Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (and Lujan) rose to the occasion in securing even more federal aid for victims of the historic northern fires this past summer. The first batch of funding came in at $2.5 billion and now another $1.4 billion is headed for approval. That's less than hoped but still a massive $3.9 billion that will directly impact the lives of thousands. 

Over at the White House, Scranton Joe, like Sen. Schumer, has shown himself to be ready to help New Mexico when the need is there. He visited the state in the aftermath of the fires, promised assistance and delivered big time. Thanks, Mr. President. Gov. Lujan Grisham was also key in the relief effort, keeping the heat on DC and not letting anyone forget the crisis.  

ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury contributed to all of the above and also delivered over $84 million in water project funds for the state. She is fast becoming a go-to water expert in the Congress. 

Stansbury also helped push through over $9 million for expanding command offices at Kirtland Air Force Base, ensuring the facility stays up to date and kept off the list of bases in danger of being shut down.

It's the clutch moments that count in politics. The early childhood amendment and shaping the huge omnibus bill to fund the government were must do's for the delegation. Working together they came through. There's only one more thing for them to do: keep it up. 

HISPANICS IN DC

Rep. Leger Fernandez and Rep.-elect Vasquez have secured leadership spots in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus:

Here is the CHC’s new leadership for the 118th Congress: 

CHC Chair – Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán 
Deputy Chair – Rep. Adriano Espaillat 
Vice Chair of Policy – Rep. Darren Soto 
Vice Chair of Member Engagement – Rep. Tony Cárdenas 
Vice Chair of Communications – Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández 
Whip – Rep. Sylvia Garcia 
Vice Chair of Diversity and Inclusion – Rep.-elect Gabe Vasquez 
Freshman Representative – Rep.-elect Andrea Salinas 

Next Congress, we will have our largest, 42-Member caucus in history, and a record 9 new CHC Members. We look forward to our collective work as we leverage our powerful Hispanic voices to pass legislation and resources that benefit communities across the country. 

On January 3 Leger Fernandez will begin her second term and Vasquez will take the oath of office for the first time.

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Monday, March 09, 2020

2020 Pre-Primary Conventions: Leger Blows The Doors Off; Plame Reels, Yvette Crushes Claire, Elisa Who? Tops GOP Senate Race, Complete Coverage And Analysis  

Leger Fernandez
Dem pre-primary results here. GOP results here.

Teresa Leger Fernandez blew the doors off Saturday's Democratic Party pre-primary convention as she garnered 42 percent of delegate support in the 7 way race for the northern congressional seat. The overwhelming win cemented her as the undisputed front-runner and delivered a near fatal blow to the candidacy of her chief rival, nationally known Valerie Plame whose tiny 5 percent showing sent her to the canvas.

The landslide left only Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya standing. She earned (by two votes) the required 20 percent delegate support and joined TLF in getting an official spot on the primary ballot.

That Sandoval County played a much larger role than usual at the convention is a testament to Montoya's political savvy but also the population growth of Rio Rancho and the lack of it in other parts of the district. A harbinger of the future?

Plame and the other disappointed also-rans, including Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna, now face the humbling task of submitting more petition signatures to ensure they are on the June 2 ballot.

The blow-out was not forecast but Leger-Fernandez, 60, has been showing signs of organizational strength as she nailed down endorsements from Emily's List and other national groups, including from the AOC PAC and the left-wing Working Families Party. In addition she comes from a political family in San Miguel County and has practiced law for several decades, immersing herself in regional issues.

Leger Fernandez, a Yale law school grad, has moved to unabashedly embrace the dominant Dem left wing. Moderates split their votes among Laura Montoya, Serna and State Rep. Joseph Sanchez. Serna received 13 percent support and Sanchez 12 percent. 

Former congressional aide and progressive John Blair was also left eating dust, managing only 4 percent and the unknown but well-informed Taos progressive Kyle Tisdale got 2 percent.

Plame has the cash to hang around and Montoya may get a boost in fund-raising and try to position herself as the alternative to TLF but this one now seems like TLF's to lose. Her opponents are going to have to go negative and fast.

Plame's campaign dismissed the convention results, saying TLF was anointed by "insiders." But the pre-primary surfaced deep problems Plame has in attracting Hispanic and Native American support, groups that comprise a majority in the diverse district.

Her lack of a record of significant involvement in the district and the charge that she "parachuted" into the race with a sense of entitlement all combined to wreak havoc on her maiden political outing. It will take more than national Internet money to get her back on her feet.

The June 2 Dem primary is the be-all-end all for this congressional seat. Only once in its 38 year history has it elected a Republican.

At the GOP pre-primary Saturday longtime Santa Fe politico Harry Montoya received 39% of the delegate votes and Native American Karen Bedoni earned 31% as both secured official primary ballot spots for the congressional seat.

YVETTE CRUSHES CLAIRE

Yvette Herrell
Yvette Herrell crushed Claire Chase at the Republican pre-primary convention Saturday, taking the pole position for the June 2 southern congressional primary that will decide who will take on Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in one of the nation’s most closely watched congressional races.

Herrell, reeling from her narrow 2018 defeat by Torres Small, found firm footing Saturday and won 66 percent of delegate support to earn the top spot on the primary ballot. Despite a six figure TV buy leading into the convention, Chase was damaged by Herrell, coming in with only 33 percent. Businessman Chris Mathys managed only the support of three delegates and will have to file additional petition signatures to make the ballot.

The 36 year old Chase is expected to again tap into family oil money to stay in the game. But history says a landslide pre-primary defeat could be the beginning of the end. The caveat being the huge oil money still behind Chase.

The political neophyte was attacked before the convention for her anti-Trump Facebook postings of several years ago. Trump appears stronger than ever in the conservative south and overcoming those postings may be a job even too big for Chase's big budget. They certainly were Saturday.

Still, some R's fretted over the Chase setback, saying the newcomer is the party's best hope to take the seat back, pointing to the poor campaign Herrell ran two years ago. They see a repeat if the former state representative is again the choice.

Herrell says she has seen the light and is running a more professional effort than '18 but national Dems immediately pounced in the wake of her victory, with the DCCC saying:

Republicans. . . are setting themselves up to repeat history with a drawn out, damaging race to the right. While today's showing suggests an effort to coalesce around frontrunner Yvette Herrell, general election voters won't forget the serious ethics problems that sunk her campaign last cycle.

The Herrell-Chase race is again ripping the southern R’s apart as the two major factions pick sides. That happened in '18 when Herrell defeated former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman. Some observers believe that primary warfare contributed to Herrell's loss to Torres Small.

For now, Herrell has been forgiven of her past sins by her party brethren and Chase has been denied their blessing. But the Holy War for the nomination goes on.

ELISA WHO?

Elisa Martinez
As a weather forecaster Mark Ronchetti was used to being atop the TV ratings, but in his first outing in the rough and tumble of La Politica he had to settle for second place. Elisa Martinez came roaring into the pre-primary like one of those storm fronts Ronchetti used to track. She didn't blow him away but did score a notable and unexpected win by garnering 35 percent delegate support to his 29 percent.

Three other senate hopefuls failed to get official primary spots. Mick Rich, Louie Sanchez and Gavin Clarkson could not reach the required minimum of 20 percent delegate support.

Expectations for Martinez were lower than those for celebrity Ronchetti whose January entrance made a big media splash. She is a well-known anti-abortion activist in the GOP but otherwise flies blow the political radar--until now.

The founder of the NM Alliance for Life surprised by pivoting to issues other than abortion,  made a smooth appearance on national TV and then gave a barnstorming speech Saturday. That she is a Native American and Hispanic woman is seen as a  plus for the party as it attempts to expand beyond its white male base. But Ronchetti has good name ID and his second place showing is respectable for a first-timer and make him a formidable foe.

Former GOP Chairman Allen Weh touts Ronchetti as the candidate who can bring the party together as they labor to defeat Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan in November but the party Saturday appeared more torn than ever, with the Martinez-McCleskey faction backing Ronchetti and the Herrell-Pearce faction strengthening Martinez.

Key to Martinez's victory appeared to be solid support in the southern congressional district which actually sent more voting delegates to the convention than the more populous ABQ district.

Martinez and Ronchetti will now escalate the money race, hoping to outdo each other with media buys.

Things could get rough. An anonymous email that the Ronchetti forces called a "smear" circulated among the delegates prior to the vote pointing out that Ronchetti has never voted in a GOP primary or donated to a Republican candidate. Meanwhile, Martinez, who has worked to avoid being tagged as a one issue candidate (pro-life), was nevertheless labeled just that by her foes.

The Martinez-Ronchetti race should be entertaining for political junkies but it may not have a second act. Lujan is heavily favored to win blue New Mexico and the national R's appear to have no plans to target the race.

ABQ CONGRESS 

It appears that Dem Rep. Deb Haaland will be facing Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes in the June primary. Garcia Holmes, a retired APD detective who has made runs for lt. governor and ABQ mayor, was the convention favorite, winning 66 percent of the delegates. Recent law school graduate Jared Vander Dussen received 25% to join her on the primary ballot. Brett Kokinadis failed to reach 20 percent.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Newly appointed Court of Appeals Judge Shammara Henderson, the first African-American on the court, ended up unopposed for the Dem primary nomination. Republicans made attorney Gertrude Lee their primary choice. . . The odds are growing that all three NM congressional seats will be occupied by women. That's a certainty in two of three districts and if the northern district elects a woman this year that would make it unanimous. . .

Only one political candidate who failed to reach 20 percent delegate support at a state pre-primary convention has gone on to win the June primary. Gary King is the exception. He did not reach 20 percent at the 2014 pre-primary but went on to win the June Dem Guv primary.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020


Monday, December 13, 2021

Redistricting Aftermath; Stansbury Safe In ABQ; Dems Still Sorting Out Southern Impact; Northern Rep. Leger Fernandez Reportedly "Shocked" By Outcome; The News And Expert Analysis Is Up Next 

New Mexico's once-a-decade-congressional redistricting is a done deal with new maps from the Legislature on the Guv's desk awaiting her signature. Now what?

Will the southern congressional district (CD#2) now be an easy take for the Democrats with the new district encompassing a large portion of ABQ's Westside, South Valley and Barelas neighborhood?

The district will indeed be a much easier race for the Dems--it now has a 6 percent Dem lean--but already some are expressing concern about the candidacy of former Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez, a progressive Dem who has the blessing of Sen. Martin Heinrich but who, according to the skeptics, may be too liberal for even the new Dem friendly district held by first term Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell

There is a hunt on for a more moderate Dem who they believe could make the transition easier for the district's electorate but the hunt is thwarted by a lack of obvious top level talent. 

One name touted is longtime ABQ City Councilor Klarissa Pena. It's a once in a lifetime opportunity that the moderate ABQ Valley Councilor will have to weigh. That opportunity may also lure others into the race for the 2022 southern CD nomination.

As for Vasquez, his campaign slogan is "Son of Southern NM." He might want to modify that now that the big city is plugged into the district.

Heinrich pushed state Senator Siah Correa Hemphill out of the race but now that the new map is a reality can the ambitions of others be quelled? That's doubtful, especially now that Vasquez may be seen as more shaky in an upcoming Republican leaning year. 

TLF "SHOCKED"

Rep. Leger Fernandez
In the northern District (CD3) it's been Silent Night publicly from freshman Rep. Dem Teresa Leger Fernandez (TLF) but close observers say she is not pleased with the shape of her new district which now extends south into Little Texas territory, including half of the Anglo dominated city of Hobbs. A Senior Alligator deeply tapped into El Norte's La Politica tells me:

Joe, Teresa was shocked by the outcome. She is telling supporters that 80 percent of the oil and gas industry in the SE is now in her district. She does not take money from them and is at odds with them on climate change. She believes the district is now competitive for the R's and is furiously fund-raising. I wonder if the national Dems even consulted her?

The new district does not appear to be as competitive as TLF may think. It gives the Dems a big 12 point edge over the R's--47--30--but it's the only map of the three districts where R's see hope as explained by Sen. Cliff Pirtle:

It’s a risk that is being taken,” in that Democrats may think they can make inroads in the traditionally Republican part of the state, he said. Despite the Democratic advantage, “with the right candidate who really speaks to the independents and people frustrated with the Democratic Party, we could pull off a win even in the next election.” 

TLF is hearing opposition to the new map for the sprawling district from Hispanic forces, including the NM Acequia Association. Being paired with the cowboys and oil boys does not settle well in the history rich north that is heavy on Hispanic and Native American voters. But it will take a court ruling now to undo the districts. The pros say that is not likely.

TLF POLL NUMBERS 

TLF has already been listed as a target of the national R's for '22. She has to scurry to douse the growing flames. 

A poll conducted in August by a DC group (using landlines and cellphones) that crossed our blogging desk and that delved into CD 3 Democratic views gave the first termer a favorable rating of 55 percent, but a full 35 percent of the over 500 Dem voters surveyed did not know who she was. That alone is enough for R's to salivate.

That poll raises the specter of not only Republican wolves baying at her door but could invite a Dem primary challenge from a less progressive Dem. Perhaps someone like former state Rep. Joseph Sanchez who came in third in a seven way Dem primary in 2020 and lost to TLF. He could also be invigorated by the new map that could be more friendly to his political persuasion than TLF's.

Leger Fernandez has to show some financial muscle to scare off the pack. She reports only $226,00 in cash on hand at September's end. 

Another possible reason for her slow start: Since its inception in '82 the district has been spoiled by big names representing them, including Big Bill Richardson, Tom Udall and Ben Ray Luján.

Also TLF assumed the office with no elective experience and the learning curve has been lengthy. 

As for the R's, if Pirtle's hope for '22 is to come true they need a strong name. One floating in the early going is Claire Chase, she of the gazillionaire Chase oil family of Artesia who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP congressional nomination in 2020 against Herrell and who lives in Roswell.

That '20 race did not hurt Chase who has been on the Pence side of the GOP fence, not the Trumpers. That complicates a primary but not the general election. She can be expected to take a look.

STANSBURY STABLE

Rep. Stansbury 
In the ABQ area freshman Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury gets most of Rio Rancho in her new district and drops a good chunk of the ABQ Westside, South Valley and the Barelas area. The Dem lean for the new boundaries is 7 percent. 

Stansbury appears solid. She won her special election in a 60 percent plus landslide in June and has taken easily to her new job. She already had experience as a congressional aide and is a natural policy nerd. 

The new district, however, could soften her progressive politics. She takes in more conservative rural counties such as DeBaca and Lincoln. The saving grace for her is that those are very low population areas. Still, Rio Rancho, (the state's third largest city) has plenty of R's and with the conservative dragon breathing fire headed into '22 we may see a slightly more accommodating Stansbury when it comes to views that don't align with the progressive universe. 

Final note: The new congressional maps appear to present opportunity for less progressive Dems. It's not coincidental the father of the maps is moderate Dem state Sen Joe Cervantes of Las Cruces. 

And there you have it, Gators. Welcome to the next ten years. 

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Tuesday, April 09, 2019

A Picture That Really Is Worth A Thousand Words About Today's La Politica, Plus: Great Mentioner Is Back in Biz; New Name Makes Rounds For Northern Congress Seat 

This  picture is truly worth a thousand words. Here from a recent congressional hearing we have Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, the former ABQ Republican Congresswoman ('98-'09) who dominated the political landscape here a decade ago, being questioned by Deb Haaland, the Democrat who now holds the ABQ Congressional seat Wilson once had a tight grip on.

Well, nothing says it better than that picture about how our state has dramatically changed since Wilson's time.

--A congressional district once safe for the R's has gone deeply into the Democratic camp and is no longer even competitive.

--Haaland is the first Native American woman to serve in the US House (along with Sharice Davids) as New Mexico's "majority minority" status fully asserts itself.

--Also at the hearing Wilson was questioned by southern US Rep. Torres Small, who startled the state by turning that red district blue last year.

One of our Senior Alligators could not resist a commentary:

For NM political junkies the April 2 House Armed Services Committee was a fascinating juxtaposition of former and future NM politicos. Air Force Secretary Wilson, the former ABQ GOP congresswoman who was an upstart, headline-grabber for a decade in New Mexico, faced questioning from two new Democratic upstarts—Rep. Deb Haaland and Rep. Torres Small.

The dramatic change of circumstances was probably not lost on Wilson. It was in 2008  that she had her sights set on the U.S. Senate after 10 years in the House and 6 brutal general/special elections.. The cutthroat, take-no-prisoners, military veteran Wilson had to likely exercise major restraint to not tear apart these non-veteran, softy, freshman legislators.

Torres Small and Haaland, neither of whom interacted with Wilson much during her time as a NM rep, probably looked across the carpet to realize how fleeting a life in NM politics can be. They might be having fun right now putting Heather on the spot, but look what New Mexico politics will do to you—Wilson didn’t use to have that much grey hair. 

In just a month, Wilson will be gazing across the state line from Texas as she leaves her position as Air Force Secretary and takes over the presidency of UTEP.  From there she will no doubt keep an eye on the NM political scene that she was once so much a part of.

Video of Wilson's  exchange with Rep. Haaland is at 3:02:25 and the one with Rep. Torres-Small at 3:27.

NORTHERN CHASE

Leger de Fernandez
Now the latest on what could be a topsy-turvy race for the Dem nomination for the northern congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Lujan. The Great Mentioner is back in business and is mentioning attorney Teresa Leger de Fernandez, a San Miguel County native who now lives in Santa Fe, as a possible candidate.

She runs a small law firm that has done considerable business with Native American tribes. Those pitching her point out she took her undergrad degree at Yale, graduated from Stanford Law School and was appointed a White House Fellow by President Clinton. Leger de Fernandez, 59, is divorced and has three children all in college.

The handicappers say that Santa Fe City Councilor Renee Villarreal may be more out than in for the congressional race. . .People are still waiting for Public Regulation Commissioner Valerie Espinoza to say something about the contest (phone home, Valerie.). . . DC Dems are said to be frustrated with the many Hispanic men looking at the race because they want a Hispanic woman in the seat.

Questions? Send them in and we will forward them to the Great Mentioner.

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