The word layoffs is an indecipherable hieroglyph at Sandia National Laboratories. 

They probably need an anthropologist to tell them what it means, because in Sandia's nearly 80 year history even old timers can't recall the nuclear weapons research and development institution using that dreary noun. But there it is, against all odds and splashed across the headlines for all to guffaw at. 

(A reader now informs there were layoffs in the early 70's and we'll follow up on that.) 

Like so many other norms under Trump, this one died a public death with the Labs announcing that 1 to 3 percent of its workforce--as many as 510 well-paid employees--would be let go due to a "restructuring" at the place where nuclear weapons are born and raised.

Say what? doesn't come close to describing the surprise this has been greeted with. 

Most everyone missed or didn't take to heart the recent congressional testimony of Sec. of Energy Chris Wright where he detailed a sharper definition for the mission of the nation's 17 national laboratories and forthcoming budget cuts. 

Sen. Martin Heinrich, the senior Democrat on the Senate Energy Committee where Wright made his case, did see it coming, saying Wright's new paradigm would mean slashing $2.75 billion and 7,700 jobs.

Months ago the New Mexican raised a red flag over funding for Los Alamos Laboratories but it turns out that the budget for that nuclear weapons outpost will actually grow under Wright's plans--not so Sandia. 

Los Alamos is so busy they have placed employees in Santa Fe because of a lack of space as they focus on nuclear weapons modernization. Sandia's mission is broader and more vulnerable.

ABQ'S SPINAL CORD 

Heinrich and the rest of the state's DC delegation, always ready to boast of  how they "protect the labs," had not a word to say as Sandia dropped their bombshell (thankfully not a live one). Perhaps being made speechless by the seemingly unprecedented news is their excuse. 

Sandia, the spinal cord of the ABQ metro economy, has a workforce of nearly 17,000 with 13,000 of them in ABQ and the remainder in California. The annual budget is around $3.5 billion. That is major moolah in a state of a bit more than 2 million souls and not much of a private business climate.

When the Alligators were done choking on their tortillas, they posed the all-important question: Is this a one and done deal or are we in for something more disturbing?

DOWNSIZING CAUSE  

The downsizing appears to be driven not only over cost concerns but the administration's antipathy toward renewable energy research. 

We see where $49 million is being stripped from the Lab's budget for research for the Holy Trinity of the environmental left-- solar, wind and geothermal--seen on the right as a triple waste of time.  

And that line item to have Sandia look into methane mitigation? Forget it. It's gone and to the applause of the oil boys. 

The hit on renewables comes with the support of the now notorious Project 2025 whose manifesto reshaping the federal government was circulating even before Musk and the DOGE cutters came along.  

A PEAK IS REACHED 

The one and done believers on the layoffs are getting the benefit of the doubt because the target is nonnuclear items which is the lion's share of the budget. And while the layoffs stunned the city, there has been an explosion (pun intended) in employment at Sandia.

Looking at the 2020 numbers, total jobs skyrocketed to 14,000 with 1,100 new positions amid the start of the updating of the nation's nuclear arsenal.That compares with the aforementioned 17,000 employees today, so even if the full 3 percent layoff target is implemented, Sandia's recent rapid growth is hardly negated. 

A former aide to Senator Jeff Bingaman, who chaired Senate Energy as did Senator Pete Domenici and who were were known for safeguarding the lab budgets for decades, was cautious about the future, telling us:

Let's face it. After Trump the federal government will never be the same. The peak of many programs has been reached. For Sandia that peak was high. Scaling new ground above it is probably not in the cards. 

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Councilor Garcia

In covering Monday's large Santa Fe protest to oppose the sale of federal public lands we mentioned that there does not appear to be a clear front-runner for the large progressive voting bloc in the city's November mayoral election. Not that the hopefuls aren't trying. City Councilor and mayoral candidate Mike Garcia sends this: 

It was amazing to participate in the rally. As a frequent recreational user of our state’s extraordinary public lands, I could not sit idle. I made my own sign and marched with others to advocate that public lands are to be protected and not sold off to the highest bidder. 

Meanwhile, Garcia has more competition with the addition to the race of first term Santa Fe County Commissioner Justin Greene. His campaign says: 

Crumbling roads, rising rents, and a worsening housing crisis have left residents frustrated and eager for change. . . is launching his campaign to bring fresh energy, real solutions, and accountability to City Hall. Greene is committed to delivering effective solutions that improve infrastructure, strengthen public safety, and address homelessness and the housing crisis — all with transparency, urgency, and integrity. 

Seven candidates are now running to succeed two term Mayor Alan Webber. Most of them seem reasonably informed and the City Different can look forward to an interesting campaign. 

That big surprise in the New York mayoral race Tuesday where underdog and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani came out on top in the Democratic primary shows how the unexpected can happen in a mayoral contest. Of course, in the Santa Fe race the expectations in the early going are kind of a blank slate-- although with an established base of voters Garcia and Greene are in the top tier. 

DATELINE ABQ 

In the ABQ mayoral campaign Mayor Tim Keller is blasting opponents who are blaming the city's public financing system for being too complicated as an explanation for why they did not qualify for $756,000 in public money. Keller was the only candidate to qualify and defends the process:

Qualifying for Albuquerque’s public financing system isn’t meant to be easy. It requires hard work and the ability to build a team of volunteers. . .That means thousands of humble face-to-face conversations about the future of our city. . .Candidates signed on to pursue public financing knowing the rules, and now they are complaining about the system when they can’t make the cut— let’s be clear: the rules haven’t changed in twenty years, and candidates from both parties, incumbents and challengers, have made the cut in the past. What’s changed is that, this year, we have hardly seen any other candidates personally ask voters to support their public financing because some of my opponents were either too arrogant, slow, or ineffective.

Pretty rough language for Keller's opponents there. If Keller wins a third term it appears the City Council would need a veto proof majority--six of the nine councilors--to make any major changes to the current financing system.  

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A massive Monday protest in Santa Fe against that Republican proposal to sell off two million acres of federal land for development--including some in New Mexico--and that drew a crowd variously estimated at two to three thousand--was a potent reminder that the nationalization of New Mexican politics is alive and well and will continue to reverberate at the state's ballot boxes.

First came Trump's election in 2016 that started the backlash, then came the debate on abortion rights and now there is the general displeasure with Trump's second term motivating robust political protest and voter participation. 

The crowd that jammed the streets outside the El Dorado Hotel where a Western Governors Association meeting was in session and that included a speech by Trump Interior Secretary Burgum, was quintessentially progressive. They decorated the scene with colorful signs (GOP Land Steal--No Bueno) filled the air with loud chants and created an overall 60's vibe that has never really disappeared from the fortresses of state liberalism that are Santa Fe and Taos.

The national dominance of the local agenda is already noticeable in the ABQ mayoral race where incumbent Tim Keller is reminding whoever will listen that Trump is the poison and that he is the antidote. That's the familiar path he took in 2017 when he won his first term and when Trump also loomed large. 

In the Santa Fe mayoral race, also on the ballot this November, there is less clarity on who will benefit from progressive enthusiasm to vote. There is no clear front-runner yet in the field of six hopefuls who want to succeed two term progressive Mayor Alan Webber. But if any one of the candidates can capture the fervor on display Monday they are sure to be formidable. 

In the still embryonic Governor's race, Deb Haaland needs all the progressive support she can get for next June's primary as Sam Bregman works to consolidate other wings of the party. Haaland had to be gratified by the enthusiastic Santa Fe crowd. If she can capture that kind of energy among progressives there and  in ABQ and Las Cruces denying her the Dem nomination will be problematic.

Meanwhile the US Senate parliamentarian ruled Tuesday that the provision to sell off those federal lands can't be included in the big budget bill under consideration. For New Mexico Republicans that's not a defeat but a favor. 

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Interim US Attorney Ellison

Our Legal Beagles are on the case of new New Mexico US attorney Ryan Ellison. 

Ellison was appointed USA by Attorney General Pam Bondi in April, sworn in by a federal judge and has since been moving aggressively to put the Trump administration's imprint on the important office. 

His powers are so formidable that US attorneys are required to be nominated by the president and confirmed by the US Senate. 

But that longstanding oversight has been put on the shelf for Ellison and other US attorneys through the appointment process. 

One of our Beagles checks in on this most unusual turn of events:

Joe, Ryan Ellison was named as U.S. Attorney for New Mexico on April 18, but no one seems to care that he wasn't nominated by the President nor confirmed by the Senate. At best, he can be the "Interim U.S. Attorney," and it should clearly state that on the Justice Dept. website. Instead, his profile states he is the U.S. Attorney. Ellison has already named an entirely new management team and restructured the criminal division.

Trump seems to be just skipping the nominations of U.S. Attorneys in many districts and the AG is appointing them--skipping any input by home state senators (Sens. Heinrich and Lujan do have blue slips for U.S. Attorney nominees in the District of NM) and avoiding the Senate confirmation process. 

Has anyone asked Heinrich and Lujan if they are recommending candidates to the White House for a Senate confirmed U.S. Attorney? Seems they've abdicated their authority in this process and let Trump install a U.S. Attorney without any Senate confirmation. So much for the "Advice and Consent" clause of the Constitution.

More importantly, are they going to do the same thing when a federal judgeship vacancy opens up in the district, and not weigh in for a lifetime appointment to the bench? Those judges typically serve 20+ years - will Martin and Ben Ray do their jobs? 

Ellison, 37, is a native of Alamogordo who since 2018 served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Las Cruces Branch Office as Supervisory Assistant U.S. Attorney of the Violent and General Crimes Section.

He's not wasting time aggressively pursing Trump's tough immigration policies: 

U.S. Attorney Ryan Ellison announced the office won its first cases of trespassing within the state’s newly created military buffer zone. In mid-April, the U.S. Department of Interior transferred. . land to the U.S. Army, after which the Army made it an extension of the Fort Huachuca Army installation in Arizona. That same day, the fort’s commander issued a regulation designating the land as a restricted area. The U.S. Attorney’s Office then started charging people with trespassing, now called the New Mexico National Defense Area.

That's a whole new way of doing immigration policy. It may or may not be fine but surely the individual commanding such powers should be subjected to the checks and balances that prevent the abuse of those powers?

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It's official.There will be seven mayoral candidates on the ABQ election ballot November 4. 

Here's where the contest stands with roughly four months to go:

--Democratic Mayor Tim Keller is poised for a first round victory but could face a December run-off election if he fails to reach 50 percent of the vote. 

Keller's chances of avoiding a run-off have actually gone up this month because none of the hopefuls opposing him qualified for $756,000 in public financing for their campaigns. But Keller has. 

Here's Dem consultant David Alcon:

It is possible that even in this crowded field Keller could reach that 50 percent mark if his opposition fails to raise substantial money. Besides the $756,000 in public money, there is an outside political committee collecting money for Keller. His total fund-raising could easily top $1 million. 

If the rest of the field can't compete financially, what was very unlikely could become reality--Keller could win a third term in the first round of balloting. 

THE CHALLENGERS 

Eddie Varela

The field of challengers is mostly unknown. 

Republican and former BernCo Sherrif Darren White has some name ID but he is loaded up with past political baggage and is hampered by a divided GOP. 

Back to Alcon: 

If there is a run-off White could be in it by finishing second but can he consolidate the GOP base vote? Even if he did, ABQ is heavily Democratic. He would likely lose a run-off in a landslide. That's what happened to Republican Dan Lewis when he faced Keller in 2017 when Keller won his first term. 

Complicating matters for White are other conservatives trying to bring Keller down. 

Retired firefighter Eddie Varela is campaigning openly as a Republican in the officially nonpartisan election and turned in the second highest number of qualifying signatures--right behind Keller. 

Independent candidate Daniel Chavez hired a well-known GOP consulting group to help him collect the 3,000 signatures needed to qualify for the ballot. He put up $100,000 in personal money to do it but has not yet shown an inkling to add more. Still, he is another conservative vying for votes.

Add to the conservative mix City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Sandoval Deputy County Manager Mayling Armijo. 

That's five candidates potentially splitting the bedrock anti-Keller vote.  

The only contender challenging Keller for Democratic progressive voters and similar-minded independents is former US Attorney Alex Uballez. His campaign stumbled badly in the opening days, losing key consultants and failing to qualify for public financing. But it is Uballez who still poses the most danger to Keller--if he can restart his campaign with robust fund-raising and more energy.

A Keller-Uballez run-off would have more potential for an upset than a Keller-White face off which would, as Alcon said, likely be a layup for Keller.  

NOTHING COMING EASY

Mayor Keller

The failure of anyone but Keller to qualify for public financing is seen by some political veterans as the death knell for the mayoral race--that it is over before it has started. But there is time for a candidate to do the unexpected and pull away from the pack. 

The key is obviously fundraising and reigniting voter discontent over crime and homelessness, two issues that have slowed Keller in public polling and that remain persistent.

To make Keller vulnerable his opposition will have to "denationalize" the race, arguing that what is happening in ABQ cannot and should not be rationalized away by similar problems in other cities. They must make an electorate that seems quiescent, if not apathetic, feel differently. 

Indicting Keller's leadership on public safety and offering a believable alternative will be essential.

It will be anything but easy. 

The lack of a major foe for Keller points to his effectiveness as a politician with a solid organization, his superior communication skills, his resistance to the narrative that the city's best days are behind it and his near constant introduction of new and interesting solutions--even if many have failed in the past eight years. Also, for the majority Democrats his leadership contrasts well with that of President Trump which also helped him in his 2017 election.

That's a lot of string for his opponents to unwind and the clock starts now.  

Joe Monahan began his journalism and blogging career in 1974, covering the first ABQ mayoral race conducted under the new City Charter. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Securing the Democratic nomination for governor won't come at a bargain basement price. Inflation isn't exempting the cost of campaigning and the $4 million that MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti each spent in 2022 to win their nominations is expected to be equaled and likely surpassed.

Already Deb Haaland says she has raised nearly as much as Lujan Grisham spent in her three way primary, reporting a total of $3.7 million raised. Haaland spent $1.7 million as of April 7.

What does that mean for BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, Haaland's chief rival? We put that question to a veteran Dem consultant not affiliated with any Guv campaign: 

Bregman will definitely have to raise and spend $3 to 5 million if he wants to compete against Haaland. She may or may not spend more but for Bregman $3 million is the low, low end to stay in the fight. 

What about the immense wealth that Bregman's son has accumulated with his stellar baseball career? Could that come into play? The consultant replied:

His son would not give him vast sums as an individual. The maximum amount an individual can contribute is $12,000 per election cycle (primary or general election), meaning a total of $24,000 if contributing to both. But Bregman's son (Alex) could donate as much as he wanted to a political action committee that would support his father's campaign. That is an ace in the hole that Bregman may have that could make a real difference if in the months ahead he gets the race in play.

Despite the continued decline in audience for over the air TV stations like KOB, KOAT and KRQE, political ads at those stations are more than keeping up with inflation. Back to the consultant:

It wasn't long ago that an effective ad buy--at least 1,000 ratings points per week was going for $100,000. That price is more than double now, so it will cost the candidates at least $1.6 million to stay on TV in ABQ for the two months head of next June's primary. And that does not include El Paso to reach Las Cruces voters. 

Broadcast TV and cable is still important in campaign advertising because voters aged 50 and over still depend on them as their main source of information and they are the age group most likely to vote. 

Bregman has just begun his fund-raising and reported $76,000 in cash in April. 

The consultant says we won't need early polling to determine the leader in the race, saying if Bregman has not raised around $2 million by late fall, it could be a sign of trouble. Ditto for Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima who faces the steepest fundraising hill to climb. 

WHAT THEY ARE

Here's some insider info on the TV game that is so critical to the candidates as explained by campaign operatives:

 In TV advertising, "1,000 points" refers to Gross Ratings points that measures the reach and frequency of an ad campaign. One GRP represents 1% of the target audience reached by an advertisement. If a TV ad reaches 1% of a target audience of 100,000 people, that’s 1 GRP. If the ad airs multiple times, the GRPs accumulate. This means the ad campaign has achieved a cumulative reach equivalent to 1,000% of the target audience. For instance, it could mean reaching 100% of the audience 10 times (frequency) or 50% of the audience 20 times, depending on the campaign structure.

Thanks, but that's like going to summer school. Time to jump in the pool and sign along with this.

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Jon Lipschutz

Sam Bregman hardly had time to gloat over the news that Deb Haaland's campaign manager was forced out the door when Bregman's manager for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination was dropped in hot water:

A new lawsuit filed by the New Mexico Ethics Commission alleges the nonprofit New Mexico Safety over Profit failed to report at least $56,000 spent lobbying against medical malpractice reform before the legislative session. The group’s executive director, Jon Lipschutz, manages. . .Sam Bregman’s campaign. Bregman also serves as the (Bernalillo County) District attorney. . .New Mexico Safety Over Profit operates as a 501c(4) nonprofit, putting it under no federal legal obligations to disclose its donors, thus earning the moniker “dark money groups.” . .. That federal status, however, does not exempt the organization from the disclosure requirements of New Mexico’s Lobbyist Regulation Act or Campaign Reporting Act. 

Lipschutz is a longtime time Dem operative who operates the firm Big I Strategies and comes at his politics from the center-right, not exactly the dominant strain in today's progressive dominated Dem party. But Bregman is veering right and trying to break that mold and upset Haaland for the nomination next June.

That both of the leading Dem candidates are navigating troubles with their managers at this early stage is not exactly inspiring for the party but the Republicans are also wobbling early.

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, the only official GOP hopeful, appears on the edge of pulling out of the race and possible contender Duke Rodriguez is encountering turbulence over his voter registration and voter history.

Back at the Haaland camp, mum is the word over the story we broke revealing that her campaign manager, Scott Forrester, was sent to the showers because of disputes over campaign finances and strategy. 

When asked for comment by the New Mexican a spokeswoman for Haaland would not even acknowledge that Forrester was ousted. (Is that how they would run the government?)

Since then we've learned that the financial issue is over how much Forrester has been compensated by the campaign and that talks continue over that and any future role he might have.

Watching all of this from the sidelines is the third Dem candidate for the nomination, former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima. Hey, Ken. How's your manager doing?  

CAMPAIGN JAB 

Before he got the bad news on Lipschutz, Bregman fired off this fund-raising appeal in the aftermath of the Forrester news with plenty of indirect jibes at front-runner Haaland: 

Too many politicians in Washington are weak, and Democrats are not doing enough to fight back. They cave under pressure. Meanwhile, families in New Mexico are desperate for real change. Our schools are struggling. Crime is on the rise. Healthcare is out of reach for too many. And while the political class talks in circles, folks back home pay the price. That’s why I’m running for Governor. Not to play it safe. Not to climb the political ladder. But to get things done and to fight for New Mexicans who are tired of excuses.

Haaland isn't dignifying Bregman with any hits at this stage and doesn't need to. But she does have her hands full steadying her campaign that in the post-Kamala Harris era finds itself on shifting ground.

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Heinrich in Taos

Criticized for being adrift in the US Senate and for not actually liking the job, Senator Martin Heinrich seems to be finding his voice in the early stages of his third term.

That's thanks in no small part to President Trump and Republican lawmakers whose environmental policies especially rankle the Democratic senator with a well-known fondness for the natural environment. 

Senate Republicans are proposing to sell off up to 3.3 million acres of federally owned land in 11 Western states to make room for affordable housing, a move Heinrich calls a "fire sale and "taking up a sledgehammer."

Here's Heinrich, the state's senior senator, at a Taos rally called to fight the plan as well as the president's push for more power to abolish national monuments including several in New Mexico: 

Our national monuments are about who we are. They tell the story of our ancestors, support jobs and our rural economies, and connect Americans to our history and the land itself. No president can erase that. … We’re ready to fight back — and we won’t back down.

It's the kind of sharp-edged rhetoric that is not a Heinrich trademark but now with what he sees as an existential threat hanging over the lands that he cherishes, he is revealing a firmer and more confident voice backed up by his increasing seniority.

Just months ago Heinrich was close to leaving his job and announcing a run for governor. We discussed his change of heart with a close Heinrich political associate:

He really dropped his bid for governor because the arrival of Trump gave a new depth and seriousness to his position as a senator. It wasn't political. He sees his work now in a different light with more urgency and focus as the stakes go sky high for the issues that he cares most about. 

Heinrich's rise to ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has put more institutional power behind him. If the Democrats take back the Senate in the years ahead he will likely become chairman of that committee so important to the state. 

He is now following the career paths of Senators Domenici and Bingaman who found great satisfaction chairing the panel, a feeling that Heinrich, who came to the Hill in 2009 as a congressman, finally appears to be realizing.

Heinrich, 52, quietly campaigned to become Secretary of Interior under President Biden who eventually chose fellow New Mexican Deb Haaland. But if he sustains this trajectory of his senate career--ironically inspired by Trump--his strengthened voice will reverberate on the Hill and the nation.

THE JUNIOR SENATOR

Meanwhile, Senator Ben Ray Lujan, seeking re-election to a second term next year, also appears to be finding renewed purpose in the chaotic DC atmosphere. 

While Heinrich concentrates on the state's environment and natural resources, Lujan, a new member of of the Senate Finance Committee, is focusing on the nitty gritty of entitlement programs--Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and food stamps--that are the target of budget-cutters. They are especially vital in high poverty New Mexico. He says:

. . .Cuts would shut down clinics, rip away food and care, and leave families with nowhere to turn. For seniors living on fixed incomes, for parents working to make ends meet, and for rural communities already facing barriers to care – these programs are lifelines. I will keep fighting in the Senate to stop these cuts and protect the dignity and well-being of every New Mexican. 

Like Heinrich, Lujan, 53, came to Washington as a congressman in 2009. He has always demonstrated notable political skills but they have atrophied since his arrival in the Senate. But with Trump also reinvigorating him, the state's US Senate delegation is looking balanced and equipped for their long battle ahead. 

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Duke Rodriguez

Foes of marijuana magnate Duke Rodriguez are trying to slow his swagger while he considers a bid for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination and says that he could put up $2 million of personal money to make the run. Those foes appear to have been successful in tying him up on his voting history as Rodriguez wins an endorsement from his former boss, ex-Governor Gary Johnson. 

The Rodriguez rivals are focusing on his residency and voting history in the state, feeding the rumor mill that Rodriguez may not have been a NM resident for the five consecutive years required of would-be governors by the state constitution. 

In addition, they say that Rodriguez only registered to vote in the state earlier this year and that there is no record of him casting ballots in in recent state elections. 

Those charges, according to state records, appears to be a fact. They show that Rodriguez did not register to vote until January 14 of this year and does not have any history of voting in recent state elections.  

Rodriguez, 68, has a home in the far NE Heights of ABQ and also a residence in Scottsdale, AZ where his marijuana business Ultra Health, New Mexico's largest cannabis company, is headquartered. 

We interviewed Rodriguez via email, asking first about his registration and residency. He said:   

I am a registered voter in New Mexico, and I have owned a home here continuously since 1979. In just

the short time since expressing interest in this race, it’s become clear that some would rather focus on distraction and rumor. The three most common falsehoods I’ve heard so far: I don’t live in New Mexico; I’ve donated to Democrats and I own a cannabis company. Here are the facts: 

 • I have resided in New Mexico continuously for over five years—indeed, for over four decades. 

 • Like many in our close-knit state, I’ve supported individuals across party lines when the cause or candidate aligned with New Mexico’s needs.  

• And yes, I proudly operate a successful cannabis company that provides jobs, contributes to the economy, and reflects the will of New Mexico voters.

Monahan: While you’re registered to vote from ABQ, there’s no voting history (on the SOS website). Have you voted in New Mexico elections recently? And were you registered in Arizona recently before New Mexico?  

Rodriguez: I’ve answered clearly. At this point, I’m taking a page from Governor Gary Johnson’s playbook—keep it focused, keep it real, and don’t take the bait. Truth is, we’re all a little worn out from the same old political playbook: stir up drama, throw some shade, hope nobody notices there’s no real plan. That’s not my style. I’m here to talk about ideas, solutions, and a better path forward for New Mexico. So I’ll keep it positive. Let others play the “they said” game—I’m too busy working on what we can do. 

But Rodriguez did not "clearly" answer the questions. His recent NM voter registration and lack of a voting history is now an issue. As for having five years of consecutive residency, that is sure to be argued over until completely sorted out. 

All of this leaves plenty of fodder for the sharks circulating in Republican waters as the race for the nomination prepares to intensify.

DUKE AND JOHNSON 

Gary Johnson

Meanwhile, former Governor Gary Johnson ('95-'03), who Rodriguez served under as cabinet secretary for the Human Services Department and who pushed for legalized marijuana during his two terms, offers an early endorsement of his former employee. Rodriguez sent this text exchange between the pair: 

Johnson: Duke, I would love to have a conversation with you about

your running for governor.  I absolutely believe that you can win and need to win for the future of New Mexico. Gary Johnson.

Rodriguez: Thank you again for a great conversation. Would you mind if I share your message? 

Johnson: Share it! 

The only announced candidate for the GOP nod is Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. Other possibles include former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, former NM Supreme Court Justice Judy Nakamura and Roswell state representative and oilman Mark Murphy.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The Rodriguez possible candidacy resurfaced an issue rarely mentioned--the five year residency requirement for governor candidates. Here's the deal. . .

To run for governor a candidate must be a resident of the state for at least five consecutive years immediately preceding the election. The requirement is stated in the New Mexico Constitution, Article V, Section 3. Also, the candidate must be at least 30 years old, a citizen of the United States, and not have served two consecutive terms as governor. 

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Forrester & Haaland

Our senior sources report that veteran political consultant Scott Forrester is out as campaign manager for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland. 

The reasons given are unspecified concerns over campaign finances and squabbling over strategy.

We sought comment from Forrester but received no response and could not reach a campaign spokesperson.

Forrester, 43, has a resume that includes managing Haaland's first US House campaign in 2018, serving as NM Dem Party executive director and as chief of staff to ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury, a post he surrendered when he signed up with Haaland's Guv campaign. 

The Haaland campaign has raised a hefty $3.7 million this year but since there are no details on the financial angle of Forrester's departure, let's take a look at the push and pull over how the candidate is being positioned. 

Haaland's play it safe strategy, dubbed "staying in the basement" by supporters of her rival Sam Bregman, has, according to one source, caused a "divide" in the campaign.   

The personnel shake-up comes after mediocre reviews of Haaland's first months on the trail, with criticism centering on the lack of substance in her messaging and the play it safe strategy that is backed up by her successful fund-raising. 

Haaland, coming off a stint as Sec. of Interior under President Biden, has seemed caught off guard by the critics and may be looking to beef up her image and be more forthright on policy. 

But some of her advisors, fearful that Haaland, who had trouble as a cabinet secretary articulating department policy, could make a major blunder that could give Bregman and her other foe, Ken Miyagishima, an opening. 

OUT OF THE BASEMENT 

Haaland does "come out of the basement" but when she does she is very careful climbing the steps. Her long-standing slogan of being "fierce" can seem out of context.

The subjects she has chosen to sparsely address include water, veterans and Trump's proposed budget cuts, issues that provoke little debate in the party.  

A speech she gave on economic policy was exceptionally light on detail prompting push back that she is not identifying with the major issues confronting everyday New Mexicans such as the rising cost of living, affordable housing, excessive crime, poor education, last in the nation child-well being and other complex policy matters.

Political pros say part of the problem stems from Haaland's early launch, coming as it did well over a year before the June '26 primary and as Sen. Martin Heinrich talked of joining the race which seemed to force her hand. Candidates usually begin announcing their intentions about now--a year or so before the primary. 

Some criticism of Haaland may be overstated and she remains the clear font-runner to secure the nomination. Most candidates in the early going shy away from  a position that could cost them votes. But the danger for Haaland is compounded by her uber-progressive politics while on Capitol Hill. 

The Dems are in the process of shedding much of their "woke" agenda as they get crushed by Trump. Haaland will need to pivot to a more moderate stance. That is a path filled with craters that both her Dem and GOP opponents will pounce on no matter how subtly she handles the maneuver. 

Suffice it to say the departure of her first campaign manager, while not an event that will garner notice outside of political circles, does signal that the house of Haaland still has work to do in putting down a firm foundation. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Morales

Lieutenant Governors are the step children of La Politica. None of them in the modern era has gone on to become Governor and so it is for current Lt. Gov. Howie Morales. 

He says he rejected a gubernatorial run--a run we doubt he ever seriously considered--and will apparently concentrate on nailing down the lucrative and vacant position of president of Western New Mexico University in his hometown of Silver City. His starting salary there could be in the $300,000 range).

The job would be a soft landing for the 52 year old former state senator and professional educator--and he would join former Attorney General Hector Balderas in that club. 

Balderas followed his two term stint as AG not by running for Guv but becoming the well-compensated ($232,500 a year) president of Northern New Mexico Community College. 

Balderas and Morales raised hopes that one of them would be the first native born Hispanic male  to take the office since Toney Anaya served one unpopular term from 1983 to '87. 

(Gov. Martinez was born in El Paso. Gov. Richardson, who was half-Hispanic, was born in California. MLG is also half-Hispanic although she is a native.) 

Morales and Balderas are affable personalities but neither had the political punch to advance to the governorship. Balderas toyed with the notion in 2018 but melted when MLG and company put the pressure on. 

Still, both come from humble backgrounds and their success is not shabby.  

Morales gets praise for competently presiding over the state senate, one of the few constitutional duties of the office, but he never waded deeply into any of Santa Fe's power centers. Even if he wanted to, MLG was not of a mind to let him spread his wings. 

While the # 2 under MLG bows to political reality, former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who served eight years under Martinez, is said by insiders to be contemplating a bid for the top job. 

He is a native Hispanic male but he is also a Republican. That's not necessarily a deadly combination but neither is it an elixir to break the long exile of our state's second bananas from the Governor's office 

VIRGIN'S PROBLEM

Sir Richard Branson

Reader Alan Schwarz writes of our Monday blog on the ongoing financial woes of Virgin Galactic, the main tenant of the NM Spaceport:  

The problem down in T or C is two problems, Virgin Galactic and Spaceport America. 

Sir Richard Branson, owner of Virgin, made his money selling about a billion dollars of VG stock over the years. The fact that many of his business ventures have been shut down shows he knows when to hold um and, most importantly, when to fold. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for our esteemed Legislature that continues to advance millions for the Spaceport every budget cycle. 

Note that the Spaceport's premiere event, the student rocket competition, which accounts for the majority of onsite visitors each year, relocated to Midland Texas. 

As for quotes, here is one of my favorites from Californian Willie Brown, 

“In the world of civic projects, the first budget is really just a down payment. If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. The idea is to get going. Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.” 

We still see hope for the Spaceport but as Schwarz notes something is going to have to fill the hole, if Virgin goes belly-up there. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

The race to muster the financial resources to effectively compete with ABQ Mayor Tim Keller in the November 4 election is now in the panic stage.

The challengers in the 11 person field seeking to qualify for public financing have dropped their bids for the $756,000 and are now going hat in hand seeking private contributions while Keller closes in on getting that generous pot of taxpayer cash. 

The latest and last to give up are Dem City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Republican BernCo Sheriff Darren white.

Only Keller is set to collect the required 3,870 individual $5 donations needed to qualify for $756,000 in taxpayer funds to run his campaign for a third consecutive term. He has 80 percent of them and enough time to finish the job. 

It's hard to overstate how huge a development this is in the 2025 chase for Mayor. 

The opposition candidates have a mountain to climb to raise at least $500,000 each that political consultants say is the minimum necessary to effectively compete with the mayor. 

The candidates are also required to collect 3,000 petition signatures from registered voters to appear on the November 4 ballot.

Keller, Alex Uballez and Daniel Chavez have all qualified. 

White, Sanchez and Eddie Varela appeared poised to make it. Mayling Armijo has 53 percent of the signatures needed as the June 21 deadline approaches. 

SOMBER DEVELOPMENT

Darren White

Despite as many as six other choices, if the money chase continues to stagnate observers believe there is a chance that Keller could actually capture 50 percent of the vote and avoid a runoff election that would be required between the top two finishers if no one captures a majority. 

That is a very high bar but now at least visible after the public financing debacle that struck the alternative campaigns.  

Veteran Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta called the failure of any Keller challenger to get the big pot of public money "a somber development for his opponents." 

All eyes are now on parking tycoon Daniel Chavez who has already donated $100,000 of his personal money to finance the collection of the ballot signatures. Will he reach again for his checkbook? 

If Chavez wants to play some more he may have to. 

He is running as an independent but has hired a Republican consulting firm. It won't be easy to attract private cash in a race that Keller is now seen as dominating. The pressure is on political unknown Chavez to make a game of it and tap his own account. 

White is dealing with a very divided Republican party that will make his raising of private money a heavy lift. 

SENIOR ANALYSIS 

One of our Senior Alligators (a very reliable and experienced source of many years for the newbies out there) says of Keller's standing.

The election is now close to being his to lose. Or maybe already is. Uballez will have to hit him hard from the left to shake Keller's progressive base. Chavez or Mayling Armijo going aggressively after the center and right would help. White getting the money to be relevant is another factor. The chances of all this happening don't seem high. 

In 2021 Keller qualified for public financing and his two opponents did not but one of them, Sheriff Manny Gonzales, was able to raise more private money than the public amount being awarded. Gonzales still lost in a landslide in the three way race. 

This year's campaign began with Keller's opponents convinced that the high crime and ongoing homeless problem in the city would spell his doom. Now his opponents are looking at their own doomsday if this exhausted mayoral field can't regroup and make a fight of it.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Many New Mexicans long ago wrote off the chances of tourists being launced into space on Virgin Galactic rockets from the NM Spaceport near T or C. After all it's been nearly 20 years since the plan was announced by Virgin's billionaire owner Sir Richard Branson and then Gov. Bill Richardson.

So, while hope still springs eternal in a few quarters, the company's cash is making the firmest forecast. As we hear in this update from longtime Spaceport watcher Brent Eastwood in DC there could be cloudy days to come: 

Joe: Virgin Galactic's latest earnings are not good. The company had only $500,000 in revenue in the first quarter. They lost $84 million--a little better than the $102 million they lost in Q1 2024. These guys are losing money faster than a rapper at a strip club. 

They say they are working on the new spacecraft that will launch the tourists and that there will be regular flights in the fall of 2026. Here is the problem. Since they are losing on average about $100 million a quarter and they need another six quarters before there are regular flights, they need around $600 million in reserves. 

They have $567 million in cash left as of March 31. Virgin Galactic could run out of money before the space tourists can fly on a regular basis and that's assuming no delays with the new spacecraft. Sir Richard would need to put in more funds which he says he won't do. So here we are. 

Virgin Galactic's share price was at $3.32 a share Friday, with the market valuing the company at $134 million. 

Barron's reports:

The company’s goal is to essentially build a “spaceline” business—think airline, but for space—with multiple Delta class ships operating at multiple spaceports around the world. It’s a bold vision that has been difficult to achieve. Sales in 2025 are expected to be less than $2 million. In 2019, when the company became publicly traded Virgin Galactic projected 2022 sales of about $400 million. Revenue came in just over $2 million that year.    

BROADBAND UPDATE

Look beyond the state's borders and the program to provide broadband internet to deprived rural areas keeps looking worse. 

The state is still refusing to start distributing the service via available satellite links and clinging fast to expensive high speed fiber--no matter how long it takes. 

This looks nearly ludicrous in the face of a barrage of news, including a report that the kids in rural India needing broadband could very well get it before our kids do. Why? Because they are going with Starlink service:

Elon Musk’s Starlink Inc. has got regulatory approval in India, paving the way for rolling out its satellite internet services in the world’s most-populous country. Starlink has secured the license from India’s telecom ministry, according to a government official, who spoke to reporters in New Delhi, asking not to be named as the information is not public yet.

And there's this:

A growing number of states are rolling out subsidies for satellite connectivity in rural areas, a change that could be a boon to Elon Musk’s Starlink and another nascent service from Amazon. From Maine to Nevada, states are starting to help some of the 24 million Americans who lack reliable broadband pay for satellite internet, rather than focusing such aid primarily on fiber connectivity as they have in the past. 

We haven't quoted the great former NM territorial Gov. Lew Wallace lately, but it's high time:

Every calculation based on experience elsewhere fails in New Mexico.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.