We'll skip the clichés about a Halloween scare and get right to the heart of the matter.

Our sources informed us last week that Trump was planning a New Mexico visit and that was confirmed Sunday when it was announced that the former president will conduct a noon rally in ABQ on Thursday. 

Now those senior sources are telling us the event will be held at the ABQ International Sunport and that Trump will be traveling to battleground Nevada following his stop here.

An airport play is quick and clean. Protesters will try to flood the zone but the Sunport location and ease for security there should lessen the impact, unlike the chaos that ensued when Trump stopped in downtown ABQ in 2016.

So why the visit? That question is on the lips of everyone in La Politica because polling shows VP Harris  and Senator Heinrich are safe for the Dems.

It's true that Trump's visit could boost GOP southern congressional GOP hopeful Yvette Herrell. She is four points behind Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the polling, so that's one part of the puzzle.

EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

In an extended conversation with Greg Payne, a former ABQ state legislator, veteran campaign consultant and now Santa Fe attorney, we sliced and diced the visit that is raising Republican spirits and causing Dems to pull out their hair. We agreed there are several layers of the onion to peel to explain the visit.

Yes, Trump could give a boost to Herrell in ABQ's South Valley, but his target at this late stage in the campaign is also the nation. Payne explains:

Trump is hitting historic polling numbers among Hispanic voters, especially men. Just the word that he has stopped in "New Mexico" gets attention nationally. That helps him in the battlegrounds particularly Nevada and Arizona. This visit is not about Trump carrying the state against Harris but it is about virtue signaling to Hispanics everywhere that he wants their votes. It will also give him another opportunity to send out his national message on the border--while being near the border.

Trump is getting 41 percent Hispanic support in the ABQ Journal polling, a stunning number that in the modern era has not been achieved on Election Night by a GOP presidential candidate. (George W. Bush did 40 percent in 2004, according to the exits.)

Still, Dem consultants dumped on the Trump NM visit with one of them sarcastically saying:

Trump is extremely popular in New Mexico. Very worth the time and money. Great investment.

Payne and I agreed that the stop here plays into Trump's recent efforts to nationalize the election. He held a major event at Madison Square Garden in New York Sunday, a state he has little chance of carrying but the national buzz created was the reward. (Also, there are a couple of swing congressional seats near NYC.)

Another angle: Trump has never won the popular vote. Running up his totals in non-battleground states that he is destined to lose still helps the goal of winning a popular majority not just one in the Electoral College. The margin could be tiny if he pulls it off--even an extra 5,000 votes here in little 'ol New Mexico could matter.

Local Democrats continue to play with fire, saying that Trump's new Hispanic support here is an aberration. Maybe. But if it isn't and Hispanics are leaving the Dems it has the potential to alter the future political narrative--if the GOP can find leadership to take advantage.

You can't say Trump ignores New Mexico. Despite poor odds he will now have made campaign stops here each of three times he has sought the White House.

WALZING IN 

Hoskie and Walz

He walzed in and walzed out. So it went Saturday for Dem VP nominee Tim Walz as his plane touched down in Gallup and where a motorcade then drove his party to an event in Window Rock, in Arizona, a battleground state. 

The visit was brief and quiet. 

We were informed by a Dem consultant that state Senators Shannon Pinto, a Navajo, and George Munoz, who represents the Gallup area, were on hand to greet the Minnesota governor. State Dem Party Chair Jessica Velasquez was also there.

Brenda Hoskie, chairwoman of the McKinley county Dem party,  enjoyed a handshake and a hug with Walz. She said on her socials:

I welcomed  Governor Tim Walz (Coach). I told Coach “We are at two minutes warning and we need to get the Kamala Harris goal. We are here to help him and Vice President Harris win this election.

As far as we could tell, Walz made no formal statements to the small group of NM greeters.

Indian Country in NM is again poised to deliver big margins to the Dem presidential ticket. 

In Arizona, Biden carried the Rez vote heavy in 2020 and some see it as again critical to the Dem's success there.

PASSIONATE NELLA

It was a rowdy affair, the second and final TV debate between Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich and his Republican rival Nella Domenici. (Video here.)

The one hour face-off was broadcast live from ABQ's Congregation Albert, a Jewish institution of note, but three times the moderator had to deal with protesters loudly confronting Heinrich from the audience over the war in Gaza that has claimed so many lives. 

After security handled that, the candidates soldiered on and it was Nella getting rhetorically rowdy as she unloaded not only the kitchen sink on Heinrich but all the plumbing, too.

It was the least she could do if she is to command a better showing Election Night than she is in the latest polling that has her losing to the two term lawmaker by 11 points. 

Domenici again pointed out the myriad of problems afflicting New Mexico, saying Heinrich has failed to reverse our standing. 

Fair enough, but Nella retorted that what Heinrich is actually tired of is the "brutal truth" that has confronted the state.

Heinrich was most brutal, if you will, and unusually so for him, when he commented on Nella's endorsement of Trump, a decision she waffled on for months: 

If she cares so deeply about women—how can she vote for and support a presidential candidate who has been found liable for rape, who has been convicted 34 times of felonies, who has been accused of sexual assault over and over and over again, including this week when another person came forward. I don’t know how that’s caring deeply for women.  

Domenici put the senior senator on the spot by citing rumors that he will run for Governor in '26:

He bought a new house up here in New Mexico just in time for the five-year residency rule for running for governor.

He did not deny he was thinking about a Guv run, but said: 

I don't traffic in rumors, and I will always serve New Mexico however I think I can do the most good for New Mexico, and right now that is in the United States Senate.

Our latest in the know tracking of the Guv race is that Heinrich will not run for the '26 Dem nomination if Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland makes a bid. But if she does not, then the story line changes.

Heinrich gets credit for accepting a second TV debate. He had the most to lose and could have taken a pass. And he might have lost this one. 

But that is in the context of Domenici coming to life and tossing red meat out that could help her finally consolidate GOP votes and other conservatives that have stayed on the sidelines and kept her at an anemic 40 percent in the polling.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Here's a heads-up on what remain the tightest (or more interesting) state House races as we hit the final stretch. If you live in any of these districts you're going to want to make sure you vote. After all, you just might be the tie-breaker.

We compiled our list from the consultants, sources on the ground and our reliable Alligators---our longtime blog sources. Here we go.

House District 38---We're back in central New Mexico including Socorro with Republican Rebecca Dow and Democrat Rep. Tara Jaramillo. We're told this one remains as tight as the lug nuts on a 56' Chevy.

Joe, As you framed it is very close and getting nasty. Both candidates accuse each other of having their businesses wrongfully benefit from state contracts, although neither appears to be out of line. Much of this is Dow's old district from when she served in the legislature. Jaramillo has voted moderate to try to hold on to the new and still conservative district. It's tight. A Dow win would be a pickup for the GOP and she would be a player for leadership if she gets the win.

House District 68- on ABQ's Westside. Dem Rep. Charlotte Little vs. Republican Nathan Brooks. The Alligator take: 

Republicans are crying in their beer over this one. Little only won in '22 by 35 votes but the race has now broken her way since it was revealed that Brooks beat up his then wife in 2005 outside a Las Vegas Nevada liquor store and also has some DWI's. He says he's a reformed alcoholic but you can almost hear his support collapsing. The GOP kicks themselves over losing a golden opportunity and Little dodges a bullet.

House District 31--in the far ABQ NE Heights. We covered this yesterday and a little more today. The latest from a consultant:

Nothing appears to have changed. It's a toss up with maybe a slight lean to the Republican but the district is starting to look a bit more Democratic. Republican Nicole Chavez has been trailed by controversy but the GOP is determined to keep their only ABQ House seat. Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo is determined to take it from them. Bottom line? Too wild to call. 

Silva & Winterrowd

House District 52 in the Las Cruces and Otero county area. Our take:

This one features Dem community activist Sarah Silva and Republican Elizabeth Winterrowd who almost won the seat last time. Silva replaced Jon Hill, the winner of the Dem primary but who passed away. 

Dems have come with enough money for Silva who joined the race late, but she is very liberal and the seat was held by conservative Dem Willie Madrid. Look for a close one here. 

House District 36--This is a Las Cruces seat held by Dem. Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee,  who is being challenged by Republican Kimberly Skaggs. The consultant take:

Joe, is this race being painted as close and Nathan is raising a bunch of money because of it? The district performance is 54 percent but he did have a close one against Skaggs last time, 52 to 48. The polling has indicated Skaggs is again making noise. We would call this one likely Democratic with an outside chance for an upset. Still Dems are watching it closely for any late GOP surge.

House District 39 based in Grant County in the SW--This is the kind of race that political oldtimer and lobbyist Scott Scanland would call an "upset special." Our take:

GOP state Rep. Luis Terrazas is well-liked in the district. The problem? Democratic performance is 56 percent and newcomer Gabby Begay, 35, is coming on strong. Begay is making Terrazas' support of public school vouchers a key issue. He's going tough on crime, calling for an end to "catch and release.  He owns a funeral home and understands all kinds of death--including the political kind which he is working hard to avoid. 

There's several more hot ones out there in the state House and Senate and we'll pick up our coverage of them next week. All 70 House seats are up for election this year along with the 42 state Senate seats.

THE 31 BATTLE

Here's a bit of equal time for House 31 Republican hopeful Estrada-Bustillo after we posted a mailer from Republican Nicole Chavez which said she is being unfairly attacked by her opponent for wanting to "ban abortion:

It's a whopper for Republican Nicole Chavez to say she "does not support banning abortion," when her positions to restrict abortion access are well documented—from two years ago, as you pointed out--but also from questionnaires she filled out this election. We're making sure voters know that not only is she opposed to abortion, she's the NM leader of an extremist anti-abortion group anti-abortion group. I guess she figures that since she's already lied about her education credentials and where she lives so what’s one more lie?   

Whatever you do, dear District 31 voters, don't get between these two.

YVETTE'S VIRTUES 

Reader Michael Hays writes: 

Joe, Yvette's virtues, as you summarize them, alienate me. You write, "her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years." I have never regarded "tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality," and "consistency" as virtues. I think that any representative should have an open mind to new ideas and enough humility to admit mistakes. I also think that "consistency" is an overrated virtue by comparison to reasoned flexibility of thought; good reasons to change one's mind should change it, and they should be used to explain what "gotcha" journalists and political opponents want to charge to flip-flopping. 

Interesting take. But we see Herrell's strong personality standing out in the context of our current congressional delegation. As for her "never back down mentality" we see that as a campaign virtue not as a governing one.

 HARVEST TIME

This photo we've run for a number of years brought a phone call the other day from a former Democratic state representative:

Joe, this is Dan Silva. That photo on the blog is of chile I harvested at my place in the South Valley and stored in my garage. At this time, I am heavy into the green chile. You have to balance things out, you know. 

Silva, 80, served in the state House for nearly 25 years, from 1984 to 2008 and was chairman of the House Transportation Committee. He later became a lobbyist, a job he is now "winding down. His son, Dominic Silva, is a longtime Roundhouse lobbyist.

Silva had a productive career in Santa Fe but by the looks of that chile he had to set aside his true calling to serve in La Politica. Enjoy the harvest, Dan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Donald Trump could see New Mexico's blue skies before the books are closed on Campaign '24.

That's according to chatter circulating in law enforcement circles who are among the first to know of any presidential candidate visit since security is paramount.

New Mexico long ago shed its role as a swing state by voting Democratic in every presidential election since 2008 but that hasn't stopped Trump from visiting here during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. A visit this time would not be unusual.

The presidency hangs on the seven battleground states but Trump has been straying from them to make a national splash, making a stop in California and soon at New York City's Madison Square Garden.

The most recent polling has Trump getting 41 percent of the state's Hispanic voters. That would be a modern record for a GOP presidential contender if it should translate to Election Day. 

In 2004, exit polls showed George W. Bush garnered 40 percent of the Hispanic vote here. 

A NM stop courting the Hispanic vote could translate into positive coverage for Trump across the nation. 

Sources say that an advance team has scoped out a possible Trump visit. There are no other details such as when and where he would speak, if a visit materializes. 

POSSIBLE IMPACT

The only race that the former president might directly impact here with a personal visit would be the southern congressional district where former GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, a longtime Trump supporter who voted against certifying Joe Biden's 2020 presidential win, is running 4 points behind (49-45) Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the late polling.

Herrell had House Speaker Mike Johnson campaign for her in Las Cruces in August. Wednesday the speaker will be back to share the stage with Herrell at a Carlsbad rally in SE NM. The Vasquez campaign reaction:

He’s here in NM-02 to spread his MAGA extremist agenda and back Yvette Herrell’s anti-choice, anti-democracy, anti-New Mexico campaign.

If Trump does touch down in New Mexico he is sure to be greeted by protestors as well as well-wishers. Polling has Harris leading him here 50-41 with 3 percent for RFK Jr. who has withdrawn from the race but whose name remains on the state ballot.

Of course, in Trump world the point of the visit could just be to further Democratic panic over the state of the race by spending time away from the battlegrounds

ABORTION FOCUS IN 31

(click to enlarge)

The race for the sole remaining GOP state House seat in Albuquerque is getting hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot in July. 

Republican Nicole Chavez, busted for misstating her educational credentials on the ABQ Journal questionnaire, is fighting back against Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo who is attacking her on all fronts including the hot-button abortion issue.

In this mailer going out in District 31 in ABQ's far NE Heights, Chavez blasts Estrada-Bustillo for a mailer her opponent sent out attacking Chavez for supporting an abortion ban. The Chavez mailer says:

The Truth: Nicole Chavez does not support banning abortion. 

Chavez does not mention abortion on her web site and the Journal questionnaire for the general election did not ask her position. 

On the 2022 general election questionnaire--when she ran for House District 28--Chavez said this:

Q: Given the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, do you support or oppose codifying abortion protections in state law? And do you support or oppose enacting any restrictions on abortion in New Mexico?

Republicans are shrugging off Chavez's questionnaire fiasco over her education, just as they do with charges against Trump, and betting that she can get by Estrada-Bustillo by calming fears that she is an anti-abortion zealot.

The race looks like it could be a real squeaker with the district now 39 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent. 

GOP state Rep. Bill Rehm is retiring, leaving a vacancy and Chavez and Estrada-Bustillo are locked in a heated battle to replace him. It is a must-win for the GOP to avoid a humiliating House shut-out of the minority party in the state's largest county.

GOOD AND BAD

The good news for Martin Heinrich is that he continues to hold a commanding polling lead over Republican Nella Domenici in his bid for a third US Senate term. The bad news? Nationally, the GOP is now expected to take control of the Senate from the Dems and dash  Heinrich's hopes to be chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. 

The Journal survey from Oct 10-18--has the Senate race 51-40 for Heinrich, outside the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percent. 

The Senate race went bust in the Journal's first poll in late September that showed Heinrich ahead 50-38.

A committee chairmanship is a prize a senator covets after two terms but if Heinrich does win re-election and the GOP takes senate control, he'll have to wait for a Dem majority to get that reward. Meanwhile, he does sit on the powerful Appropriations Committee which isn't too shabby.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Opportunity is staring New Mexico Republicans in the face. Will they seize the moment? 

That's the story line emerging from this year's polling of state elections, with the latest presidential results confirming that an oversized number of Hispanic voters are drifting away from the Democrats.

In the ABQ Journal Oct. 10-18 poll in which VP Harris leads Trump 50 to 41 percent, Hispanic support for the GOP nominee is at or near an historic high of 41 percent. 

VP Harris is making up for this slack in majority-minority New Mexico with Anglo women voters, many of them animated by the abortion issue. Says the poll:

Donald Trump has clearly made inroads with Hispanic voters, but despite that, Kamala Harris has done quite well among Anglo voters to largely offset that.

It is the economic unease and perhaps some backlash against a too woke Dem party that has some Hispanics, usually a loyal Democratic bloc, moving away.

This Hispanic drift probably won't make much of a difference in the presidential race, although Harris is polling worse than Biden did in the state at this point in the campaign. Biden received 54 percent to Trump's 41 in the Journal's Oct-23-28, 2020 survey.

Ditto for Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez whose 51 percent Hispanic polling support is on the low side (Yvette Herrell gets 40) but he also seems to be making it up with women voters. But that race could get even closer if the late voter shift is toward Trump. He leads by just four in the Journal poll and Herrell came with an abortion spot to try to peel off some women.

OUTSIDE THE BOX

But what does this drift mean for the future of state politics. Or a better question would be, what can it mean? 

If the GOP starts thinking outside the box it could mean the start of a desperately needed turnaround.  Here are several ideas offered free of charge to our forlorn GOP friends:

--In the '25 session of the Legislature make your centerpiece legislation a proposal eliminating the state income tax on households making less than $45,000 a year. Why $45K? Because it is those customers McDonald's is targeting with its $5 value meals, reporting that they are the consumers hurting most from inflation. And many of those hamburger and french fry lovers happen to be people of color.

The tax cut could be easily afforded. Heck, with our state's oil boom savings we could buy a foreign country. But for the worry warts, pass the tax cut and put a sunset on it of five years in case oil prices go into a prolonged slump.

Second, sponsor a bill to repeal all state taxation on Social Security income. (Yes, we've kinda changed our mind on this one). Lawmakers have done that for singles making less than $100,000 and households under $150,000. Even though this cut would benefit the more affluent, the messaging for the GOP--combined with the elimination of the state income tax--is sublime. 

Unclench your tight fists, GOP, and watch with wonder how it works.

Third, stop complaining about the Democratic Emerge group that recruits solid candidates and organize a Republican version. That way there are able and fresh faces instead of GOP candidates like we've seen this year that lie on the newspaper's questionnaire or appallingly ask voter forgiveness for beating up their wife in front of a liquor store and leaving her with a purple eye and spitting blood from her mouth. Really.

So will the GOP stop staring at the opportunity and start acting? They don't have anything to lose. They've already lost everything here.

TRAIL DUST 

By our estimate the election is over for about 17 percent of the expected voters.

The SOS reported Monday that so far 155,660 ballots have been cast early including this past Saturday, the kick-off for widespread in-person early voting which always draws a big crowd. 

With our expected total turnout at 900,000 that represents the aforementioned 17 percent of voters who can now relax. Unfortunately they still have to watch all those TV ads during their favorite programs. All the statewide early turnout numbers released Monday are here. . . 

From the SOS:

The Secretary of State’s Office has created an election misinformation fact check page at NMVOTE.ORG/Rumor. The Office also provides information and resources to educate voters about the potential risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), deepfakes, and their potential impact on the manipulation of election information. These resources can be accessed at SOS.NM.GOV/AI. . .

Today is the final day to request an absentee ballot for the Nov. 5 election. The link to do that is here.  

DAY IN THE LIFE

MLG on rising and shining:

I typically wake up around 6:30. I get up and I make a beeline for hot coffee. I drink coffee until I’m asleep — cold, hot, lukewarm. I don’t typically eat breakfast. We have a little space downstairs, and I try to work out around 7:15. 

I work out with a girlfriend and we do it via video with a trainer. He makes me do weight training for good bone health, which is what women my age, and frankly women of all ages, should do. I’d like to do it two or three times a week, but these days it’s once or twice a month.

The Guv says bedtime is midnight to 2 A.M. Well, that explains the coffee.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

On the strength of abortion, a gerrymandered district that is finally taking hold and his incumbency, US Rep. Gabe Vasquez takes a four point lead into the final weeks of his re-election effort against Republican Yvette Herrell. 

The ABQ Journal poll, conducted October 10-18, has Vasquez leading Herrell 49 to 45 percent with only five percent undecided in the state's 2nd Congressional District, often referred to as the southern district. 

The poll's margin of error in this nationally watched race as Republicans battle to keep control of the US House is plus or minus 4.8 percent.

While definitively leaning Democratic, the contest is not closed out but does show Herrell needs a last hours turnaround to shake what appears to be a solid lead by her foe who is seeking his second term.

In two earlier polls--in late August and late September--Herrell trailed Vasquez by an eyebrow raising nine points. Those surveys were seen as revealing the trend but missing the nuance that is traditionally provided by the more expansive and expensive Journal polls. 

While Herrell would have liked a poll that showed her closer than a four point deficit, this survey puts to bed fears that her partisans would give up all hope in the final days. 

In the Journal poll released October 20, 2022, Vasquez led Herrell 47 to 45 percent. Vasquez went on to to win by a mere 0.7 percent or 1,350 votes. 

But that year there was no Roe V. Wade Supreme Court ruling hovering over the race and Herrell was the incumbent after beating Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in her re-election bid in 2020. 

'22 was also a "red wave" year when dire forecasts for the Republicans in the US House failed to materialize. 

TABLES TURNED

This year the tables are turned. 

--Abortion is now a nationalized issue driving turnout among Democratic women. 

--Vasquez is the incumbent and has out-raised Herrell $6.7 million to $4.1 million. (Outside PAC money is also playing a major role in the race.)

--The national environment appears more neutral for the Democrats than two years ago.

Herrell has begun trying to fade the abortion issue, putting up a new TV spot that tries to soften her tone, saying she is not in favor of a national abortion plan and supports abortion in the case of rape, incest and life of the mother. 

But the pro-choice Dems keep hammering Herrell with her earlier damning quote:

I’ve carried legislation to eliminate late-term abortion. I wish we could have eliminated all abortion in this state.

Vasquez has come with a closing spot defending his record on crime which the GOP has been attacking. The ad is narrated by a Hispanic man with an accent. More on that below.

Crucially, this district no longer appears to be a true swing district.

The 2021 gerrymander by the Dem dominated state legislature removed conservative precincts from the district in Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties and added moderate Dem precincts on ABQ's westside and South Valley. 

If Joe Biden had run in today's southern district in 2020, he would have won it by 5.7 percent. That's a true Democratic lean.

THE DEMOS

In the Journal poll women favor Vasquez, but not by as much as Dems running in the presidential and senate race: 

Vasquez had a 14-point lead among women voters, with 53% of support among women compared to 39% support for Herrell. Meanwhile, Herrell had a slight edge with male voters, with 50% support among that group compared to 46% support among men for Vasquez.

The poll is mostly good news for Vasquez but there is a yellow flag of caution for him and the Democrats among Hispanic voters:

(in 2022) Vasquez had a large lead among Hispanic voters in the district, with support of 61% of voters in that demographic. Support among that demographic group is not as strong for Vasquez this election cycle. . . Vasquez had support from 51% of Hispanic voters surveyed, while Herrell had 40% support among that group.

The problem, as state Dem strategist Sisto Abeyta has been pointing out, is Hispanic men. 

Many of them feel abandoned by a Democratic party they see focusing too much on on abortion, transgender issues and climate change while failing to adequately address economic concerns and crime, issues high on the list of working-class voters.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff says Hispanic dissatisfaction is now passed the point of simply not voting:

The Hispanic vote is not coalescing among the Democrats in the same manner as it has in prior years. Many Hispanic voters are considering Republican candidates such as Yvette Herrell, such as Donald Trump. 

The potential problem is illustrated in party support for Herrell and Vasquez:

Vasquez had strong support among Democratic voters, with 84% support among that group, Herrell had support among nearly all Republican voters surveyed, with 91% support.

Three prominent conservative Dem Hispanic male state representatives were trounced by progressive women at the June '24 primary, reinforcing the control of the progressive wing of the party. But the poll shows circumstances that could be a building block for the future of a state Republican party that is nearly extinct.  

Meanwhile, Vasquez is in control of his re-election but the road has enough bumps in it for Herrell to keep racing and to do her best to force an accident that could change her fortunes.

SLOW ROLL

The Journal is slow-rolling release of their final polling results in the presidential race. They will be announced this week but they are not highly anticipated as both contests appear closed out with neither presidential camp actively campaigning here.

Trump has consistently trailed Harris by large margins and ditto for and Sen. Heinrich over Republican Nella Domenici.

The other two congressional districts--ABQ area District 1 represented by Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury-- and the 3rd District in the north represented by Dem Tersea Leger Fernandez are safe Democratic seats.

ON THE TRAIL

Steve Jones

Stansbury did debate her opponent, retired Roswell accountant and oil executive Steve Jones, on KOB-TV last week. Fifteen minutes of that 30 minute encounter were posted by the station. 

Jones, a political newcomer at 78 who has not had the resources to run a serious campaign, proved to be an able and intelligent candidate who did not come off extreme in the civil exchange.  

Stansbury came prepared and did nothing to call into question the status of the race.

Vasquez rejected a TV debate with Herrell so the station had her on for a solo interview that can be seen here. 

The sole remaining political debate in the ABQ TV market will apparently come October 27 at ABQ's Congregation Albert. They will host Sen. Heinrich and Nella Domenici for brunch and what will be their second TV face-off. 

That debate is set for 11 A.M. and will be carried by KOB-TV, according to the Congregation. 

Reservations to attend can be made here. 

NELLA'S PURSE

We're not presumptuous enough (or delusional) to believe that she did it for our sake, but right after we posted the Thursday blog reporting that GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenci failed to donate any personal money to her campaign in the latest FEC reporting period--after donating $1.5 million in earlier quarters--she came with $750,000 in new loans (here and here), bringing the total personal funding of her campaign to $2.25 million.

We cautioned on that Thursday blog that she might not be done dipping into her fortune but it is a bit curious considering her lagging position and the limited time left to effectively deploy that cash.

Domenici is worth upwards of $90 million, according to her Senate filings. 

If that figure is accurate, Nella donating $2.25 million is like someone worth $100,000 donating $2,500 to their campaign. 

With that in mind if yer little 'ol blog in any way played a part in Nella reopening her purse, we feel no guilt but we do caution her not to spend it all in one place.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Pollster Sanderoff

Yvette Herrell desperately needs good news in the public polling. Her last shot at getting some could be this Sunday (Oct. 20) when the ABQ Journal comes with their second and final poll of Election '24

The paper took a pass on the southern congressional seat featuring Herrell and Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez in their September survey but longtime pollster Brian Sanderoff says that race, in which Herrell has lagged Vasquez by nine points in two separate polls conducted in late August and late September, has been included this time.

Sanderoff says the paper Sunday will also have a second round of polling on the presidential race here as well as the US Senate race. Both are seen as closed out by top operatives here and elsewhere with Trump on course to lose the state for the third time and Nella Domenici falling short of Dem Senator Heinrich as he seeks a third, six year term. 

Overall, polling is more difficult than ever with many voters reluctant to pick up their phones. 

Sanderoff, whose firm Research and Polling has surveyed every major statewide NM election since the late 1980's, details the most significant development for his firm and others during the Trump era: 

The biggest demographic shift in NM and nationally during the Trump era is educational attainment level. Trump is doing better than in the past among those without a college degree (especially those with a high school or less educational attainment) and Democrats are doing even better than in the past among those with a college degree, especially those with a graduate degree. Thus it is important not to undercount those with less education. 

By calling the non-respondents multiple times over multiple days you can mitigate but not eliminate nonresponse bias. In the 2020 Presidential election we were within one point of the margin of victory. In 2016 we were 3 points off the margin of victory.

The southern district has been notoriously tricky to poll because of its rural nature. But now half the votes in district come from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties. 

The two public polls in the race had Vasquez winning by by 9. Any improvement by Herrell on that could boost the Republican effort to reset the race in the final days.

HERRELL'S PAST

Herrell

Staying with the 2nd Congressional District, readers point out that we've covered the Republican scolding of Vasquez for his verbal mishaps, committed while a student at NMSU some 20 years ago. They say if his past errors are going to be covered then an incident in the 2018 campaign in which Herrell was the GOP nominee also deserves coverage. 

That controversy was covered here and elsewhere back then, but alright. In the spirit of fairness here it is again from an '18 news report:

A Republican New Mexico state lawmaker and congressional candidate has amended a financial disclosure filing to show that her company received money from contracts with state agencies, in a move ensuring compliance with state regulations.

State Rep. Yvette Herrell of Alamogordo previously disclosed that she is a partner in Herrell Properties. She submitted an amended filing to show the company earned more than $5,000 from goods or services provided to state agencies.

Other state records have indicated that Herrell Properties took in $440,000 since 2013 by renting property to the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department and New Mexico Environment Department.

The Secretary of State’s Office spokesman  said the amended filing brought Herrell into compliance with the requirement to “disclose the name of any state agency to which the legislator sold goods or services in excess of $5,000.”

Herrell survived that flare up and even now as she gasps for oxygen in a gerrymandered district, she can't be counted out.

Her vote to not certify Biden as president in 2021 and her rigid pro-life position, combined with the gerrymander of the district, puts her in grave danger. But her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years and made them cross over from their own party to elect her. 

NO MAS

On Friday FEC filings showed Domenici loaned herself another $750,000 for the final days of the campaign, bringing her loan total to $2.25 million.

The Heinrich camp, keeping an eye out for a last minute minute money rush, notes that Domenici raised $1.15 million in the final quarter before Election Day but she did not make any personal loans to her campaign. 

She had previously given a total of $1.5 million of personal money. 

Heinrich reports raising $2.3 million in the quarter, out raising her 2 to 1. 

In May we broke the news that Domenici's net worth, according to documents filed with the Senate, was  upwards of $94 million or $21 million on the low end. Dems howled at the time that they wanted "an election not an auction."

They pretty much got what they wanted since $1.5 million is a relatively modest amount for a major campaign. And Nella's hesitancy to throw more of her fortune at a race that may be out of reach earns her points for her assertion that she is a true fiscal conservative. (But there's still three weeks to go so stay tuned.)

In her latest TV ad Domenici continues calling Heinrich a "radical" but this time there's a twist. She says his economic policies are radical. That may be a better angle to get voter attention than her past efforts. The economy tops the list of concerns this year and relating Heinrich's alleged "radicalism" to voter's pocketbooks could win her a listen. 

DEBATE REACTION

Readers commented on the first Heinrich-Domenici TV debate conducted Monday afternoon. Jay Howard Deme wrote:

A real ho-hum affair between incumbent Martin Heinrich and challenger Nella Domenici. Sleepers for sure. Where are the real firebrand candidates for this top office to represent New Mexicans in Washington, D.C. at the U-S Senate! The two major party's, Democrat and Republican , better wake up. 

Khal Spencer wrote on social media:

Reader Kelley says:

Joe, concerning Nella Domenici's outrage at being perceived as following orders of a Republican Senate Majority Leader. Of course she will--whatever Donald Trump and the party desire. They’re in lockstep, no independence. 

 It’s not sexist, as she claims, it’s true. Domenici may have been successful in business, but she’s not ready for high office. I like how Heinrich has ascended and earned his way to become a US Senator by way of ABQ city councilor. US Rep., then Senator--and it shows. 

Lastly, Nella saying everyone in the ABQ "war zone" is stoned is an insult to an entire block of our city. My aunt lives between Lomas and Central off Wyoming. I can assure Nella, she’s not stoned. The community needs help and solutions, not snobby, judgement. Have a good day, Joe. 

That's it for now. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. . .

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Nathan Brooks

Voters are being asked to go back in time to asses the qualifications of two candidates--a ABQ GOP House candidate who carries several criminal convictions including one over an ugly domestic violence incident and a US Congressman whose youthful days are fulled with numerous verbal indiscretions.

The House candidate entangled in his past is Nathan Brooks, the Republican nominee for the District 68 state House seat on ABQ's westside held by Dem Rep. Charlotte Little, a member of San Felipe Pueblo, who won the seat by a tiny 35 vote margin in 2022. 

But Republicans are concerned that she could pull away if voters hold Brooks accountable for his past from 15 to 17 years ago. 

Little's campaign sent this hard-hitting digital ad that is cringe-worthy in the way it describes Brooks' disturbing domestic violence arrest and conviction:

Before he was convicted of a DWI and charged with battering a police officer and evading arrest Nathan Brooks did something unforgivable. 

Police found a woman lying in front of a liquor store where Nathan Brooks had beat her. 

Witnesses said Brooks had thrown her to the ground then kicked and punched her several times walked away and attacked her again.

Brooks told police he was going to kill her when he got out.

Nathan Brooks is not fit to serve us.

Paid for and authorized by the Speaker Fund.

Pretty devastating stuff, none of which Brooks, 49, denies. He said this about his past on the Journal questionnaire:

Almost 20 years ago, I was arrested and convicted of misdemeanors. It was a difficult time in my life as I battled alcoholism. I have since entered recovery, learned from those experiences, turned my life around, focusing on becoming the best version of myself and serving my community. . .As Executive Director for the Commercial Association of REALTORS® NM and President of the New Mexico Real Estate Education Foundation in 2024, I bring extensive business experience. 

THE SUMMARY   

Rep. Little

Here is a summary the Democrats are circulating that shows what Brooks is facing:

On June 19, 2005, Nathan Taylor Brooks was arrested in Clark County, Nevada and booked into the Clark County Detention Center. . . Mr. Brooks was arrested and charged with two counts of Domestic Violence. Docket information indicates he pled Guilty to one count and on the other pled nolo contendere and found guilty on the other count. 

09-24-2006 - Albuquerque Metropolitan Court- T-4-DW-2006004758 - State of New Mexico vs. Nathan T. Brooks - DWI First Offense and Not Driving Within Traffic Lane - Mr. Brooks is arrested and booked. . . He pleads not guilty to DWI and the case is dismissed by the prosecutor - unable to proceed (this usually means the arresting officer, who actually prosecutes the case failed to show) and pled guilty and was found guilty of Not Driving Within Traffic Lane.

Mr. Brooks is arrested on 02-15-2007 and charged with Battery Upon a Peace Officer, Resisting/Evading/Obstructing an Officer, Reckless Driving 1st Offense, Aggravated DWI (1st Offense), No Evidence of Registration, and two counts of Failure to Obey Traffic Control Devices. Mr. Brooks pleaded Guilty/No Contest to Resisting/Evading/Obstructing an Officer and Aggravated DWI 1st Offense.

Voters can either decide Brooks has redeemed himself by straightening out his life or decide that the grizzly domestic violence incident along with the DWI's and associated misbehavior is too much for them to tolerate. It's not a pleasant task.

VERBAL VASQUEZ

Meanwhile, Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez is facing what may be the final volley from Republican Yvette Herrell over his verbal indiscretions from his youth.

Records surfaced that show Vasquez nearly 20 years ago threatened to "kill" and "bury" a fellow student at NMSU. From the 2005 police report:

Mr. Vasquez admitted that he made the call to Carlos Solis that was construed to be a threatening-type call. He apologized and claimed at the time, he was very upset due to the condition of his friend [who was hospitalized]. Mr. Vasquez assured me that he wished no ill-will on Mr. Solis and will not call or harass Mr. Solis in any way.

Herrell said:

This is extremely dangerous and unhinged behavior from Gabe Vasquez, and he owes New Mexico’s Second District an immediate explanation and apology. 

And Vasquez: 

Once again, Yvette Herrell is making shameless, dishonest and desperate attacks against me. It's outrageous she's now exploiting the death of a close college friend to attack me. She just wants to distract voters because she was caught on tape admitting she wants to ban all abortion even in cases of rape, incest, or to save a woman's life.

Vasquez's past verbal mishaps were documented earlier in the campaign but don't seem to have slowed him. He led Herrell by nine points in both a late August Emerson College survey and a late September SurveyUSA.

Vasquez won election over Herrell in 2022, so much of his past has been vetted by voters who gave him a pass. 

Reports of the latest verbal indiscretions are new but Vasquez has not repeated such behavior during his term as a congressman and that may be making the difference.

BACK AGAIN

Speaker Johnson

Herrell is bringing back US House Speaker Mike Johnson for a second visit to the the 2nd Congressional District in support of her campaign. It shows the GOP is not giving up on the swing seat but also reveals the challenge they face. 

Johnson, who previously appeared in Las Cruces for Herrell, will now be in Carlsbad October 23 to get out the vote. 

That's in SE oil country which is generally friendly for her but not as much as Hobbs and Roswell which are now split up between other districts.

Herrell needs solid conservative southeast turnout but she needs it even more in ABQ's South Valley and Westside which are now in the district. That's where she could really use some big league names--if the areas are still in play for her. 

(Those interested in attending the Oct. 23 Carlsbad event can check here.)

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Republican Nella Domenici finally filled in one of the biggest blanks in this year's race for the US Senate. She announced in the final moments of an hour-long televised debate with Sen. Martin Heinrich that she will be casting her vote for president for Donald Trump. (Full debate here.)

That will be greeted with shrugged shoulders elsewhere, but it took Nella the better part of the year to arrive at her come-to-Donald moment and it took Heinrich's prodding to get her there. When asked by him for her presidential choice she surprised viewers with this:

My decision on the presidential election is a focus on policy. I could never vote for Kamala Harris. I also agree with many of the policies of Donald Trump. I will be voting for our nominee.

Domenici could have made the announcement without any prodding earlier in the debate but by waiting for Heinrich to ask, she was able to give a muted endorsement of Trump. 

Still, Heinrich's camp was delighted to point it out to a state that is poised to deliver a solid win to Kamala Harris, declaring: 

After dodging questions her entire campaign, New Mexico GOP Senate candidate Nella Domenici finally admitted she supports former President and convicted felon Donald Trump. 

The endorsement could impact the race but not the outcome. Domenici's polling has been below 40 percent in the public surveys, well below base Republican performance. The Trump endorsement should help her with GOP enthusiasm even as it further alienates Democrats.  

The endorsement also puts Domenici on the right side if she loses to Heinrich and then runs for the GOP nomination for Governor in 2026, a race that Democrat Heinrich is thought to be entertaining.

Prior to her Trump comment, the other moment of the debate that stood out for Domenici was when she raised her voice a bit at Heinrich, calling him "sexist and insulting" for saying she would follow the orders of a Republican Senate Majority Leader and support a national abortion ban: 

That is the most sexist comment you could ever hear from a Untied States Senator. I'm a very successful professional, educated woman and I will not be told by any Senator. . . what to vote on or how to vote on it. And for Martin Heinrich to think I am a weak woman who will take orders from a man and not stick to my own values, that's a sexist, insulting, demeaning remark. 

Domenici repeated her stance that she would not be voting for a national abortion ban but again refused to answer how she would vote on a Senate bill that would make it a right for a woman to have an abortion. Heinrich pointed out that she had called such a bill "a sham" and said her answer was a "nonanswer."

Heinrich kept his head down and took notes as Nella delivered her blast. Showing no emotion has almost become a caricature of Heinrich but his years in the Senate have improved his debating ability considerably. 

Heinrich also did not flinch when the candidates were asked about late-term abortions in the state, insuring that pro-choice voters have no second thoughts:

I support allowing the women in this country to make their  health care decisions. . . I don't think there is any moment when a politician is going to make a better decision than the woman. 

Slam. Dunk. 

And that made us wonder yet again what would this campaign look like if at the beginning Nella Domenici became that rarest speeches of all--a pro-choice Republican woman. 

We'll never know. 

DEBATING DRUGS

Nella did some clean-up work when Heinrich repeated his TV ad message that when she was CFO of the Bridgewater hedge fund it invested millions in Chinese companies responsible for fentanyl coming into the US:

When I was at Bridgewater, I was CFO. I had absolutely nothing to do with any stock investments anywhere in the world. (Heinrich) is trying to distract from his own failed record. 

For his part, Heinrich did not take after any of Nella's ads against him because, frankly, none have penetrated his armor. 

Both candidates offered solutions to the fentanyl crisis with Domenici supporting a border wall and Heinrich saying he has funded more equipment to sniff out smugglers, saying that 80 percent of the fentanyl coming in to the US is carried by Americans.

LIGHT SIDE 

Nella showed an empathetic side when Heinrich lost his train of thought and struggled to recall the word voucher when the discussion tuned to school vouchers. She turned to him and helpfully said "voucher." 

During the debate Nella had to ask that several of the questions be repeated because she was having difficulty hearing them, so her offer of assistance to Heinrich struck a cord when she could have just let him hang there. 

Summing up the debate: It took Martin Heinrich less than 30 seconds into the broadcast to mention "the right to choose." Any questions?

DOWNTOWN DOZING

The ABQ City Council just can't get it together when it comes to stopping people from sleeping on downtown streets. A piece of messy legislation that came in four parts led to an 8-1 vote against halting the downtown public dozing and other measures to make the area more hospitable. 

That led to this from reader Larry Anderson:

The vote against doing something about crime and homelessness went down 8-1. The council is only interested in their own tribe/club and not their broader constituency. One refuses doing anything about abandoned properties, another one or two are part of the Homeless Industrial Complex. Still another believes the government should be of the Police, by the Police, for the Police and more Police. There are others. They are powerful little tribes/clubs and most Citizens aren't members.

It was downtown Councilor Joaquin Baca who sponsored the losing legislation which makes you wonder how a bright fella like him could not have known it wasn't going anywhere

Did misplaced progressive outrage over banning the downtown sleep overs make Baca reticent to sponsor legislation that would have a chance of passing? 

Will he try again with more coherent legislation that bans the sleepers? 

Or will the city put out mattresses in front of the Man's Hat Shop to make the nappers more comfortable? 

SHE SAYS SHE'S HOT

(Austria, Journal)

She turns 65 October 24 but our peripatetic Governor isn't slowing down. She's running down the campaign trail, proclaiming herself a"hottie for Harris," while sporting a hot pink suit that is sure to turn opposition Republicans red with rage.

"Dammit, Joe, she's flashing us!"

Safely re-elected and hopeful for a spot in a Harris administration should the VP win, MLG could have a whale of a political hangover the day after the election if Harris flops. For now, its adrenaline, caffeine, hot pink and maybe even some pole dancing before this crazy campaign is put to bed.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft Monday we identified former state Rep. Dona Irwin as a Republican. She was a conservative Democrat who died recently at 93.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.