Interim US Attorney Ellison

Our Legal Beagles are on the case of new New Mexico US attorney Ryan Ellison. 

Ellison was appointed USA by Attorney General Pam Bondi in April, sworn in by a federal judge and has since been moving aggressively to put the Trump administration's imprint on the important office. 

His powers are so formidable that US attorneys are required to be nominated by the president and confirmed by the US Senate. 

But that longstanding oversight has been put on the shelf for Ellison and other US attorneys through the appointment process. 

One of our Beagles checks in on this most unusual turn of events:

Joe, Ryan Ellison was named as U.S. Attorney for New Mexico on April 18, but no one seems to care that he wasn't nominated by the President nor confirmed by the Senate. At best, he can be the "Interim U.S. Attorney," and it should clearly state that on the Justice Dept. website. Instead, his profile states he is the U.S. Attorney. Ellison has already named an entirely new management team and restructured the criminal division.

Trump seems to be just skipping the nominations of U.S. Attorneys in many districts and the AG is appointing them--skipping any input by home state senators (Sens. Heinrich and Lujan do have blue slips for U.S. Attorney nominees in the District of NM) and avoiding the Senate confirmation process. 

Has anyone asked Heinrich and Lujan if they are recommending candidates to the White House for a Senate confirmed U.S. Attorney? Seems they've abdicated their authority in this process and let Trump install a U.S. Attorney without any Senate confirmation. So much for the "Advice and Consent" clause of the Constitution.

More importantly, are they going to do the same thing when a federal judgeship vacancy opens up in the district, and not weigh in for a lifetime appointment to the bench? Those judges typically serve 20+ years - will Martin and Ben Ray do their jobs? 

Ellison, 37, is a native of Alamogordo who since 2018 served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Las Cruces Branch Office as Supervisory Assistant U.S. Attorney of the Violent and General Crimes Section.

He's not wasting time aggressively pursing Trump's tough immigration policies: 

U.S. Attorney Ryan Ellison announced the office won its first cases of trespassing within the state’s newly created military buffer zone. In mid-April, the U.S. Department of Interior transferred. . land to the U.S. Army, after which the Army made it an extension of the Fort Huachuca Army installation in Arizona. That same day, the fort’s commander issued a regulation designating the land as a restricted area. The U.S. Attorney’s Office then started charging people with trespassing, now called the New Mexico National Defense Area.

That's a whole new way of doing immigration policy. It may or may not be fine but surely the individual commanding such powers should be subjected to the checks and balances that prevent the abuse of those powers?

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It's official.There will be seven mayoral candidates on the ABQ election ballot November 4. 

Here's where the contest stands with roughly four months to go:

--Democratic Mayor Tim Keller is poised for a first round victory but could face a December run-off election if he fails to reach 50 percent of the vote. 

Keller's chances of avoiding a run-off have actually gone up this month because none of the hopefuls opposing him qualified for $756,000 in public financing for their campaigns. But Keller has. 

Here's Dem consultant David Alcon:

It is possible that even in this crowded field Keller could reach that 50 percent mark if his opposition fails to raise substantial money. Besides the $756,000 in public money, there is an outside political committee collecting money for Keller. His total fund-raising could easily top $1 million. 

If the rest of the field can't compete financially, what was very unlikely could become reality--Keller could win a third term in the first round of balloting. 

THE CHALLENGERS 

Eddie Varela

The field of challengers is mostly unknown. 

Republican and former BernCo Sherrif Darren White has some name ID but he is loaded up with past political baggage and is hampered by a divided GOP. 

Back to Alcon: 

If there is a run-off White could be in it by finishing second but can he consolidate the GOP base vote? Even if he did, ABQ is heavily Democratic. He would likely lose a run-off in a landslide. That's what happened to Republican Dan Lewis when he faced Keller in 2017 when Keller won his first term. 

Complicating matters for White are other conservatives trying to bring Keller down. 

Retired firefighter Eddie Varela is campaigning openly as a Republican in the officially nonpartisan election and turned in the second highest number of qualifying signatures--right behind Keller. 

Independent candidate Daniel Chavez hired a well-known GOP consulting group to help him collect the 3,000 signatures needed to qualify for the ballot. He put up $100,000 in personal money to do it but has not yet shown an inkling to add more. Still, he is another conservative vying for votes.

Add to the conservative mix City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Sandoval Deputy County Manager Mayling Armijo. 

That's five candidates potentially splitting the bedrock anti-Keller vote.  

The only contender challenging Keller for Democratic progressive voters and similar-minded independents is former US Attorney Alex Uballez. His campaign stumbled badly in the opening days, losing key consultants and failing to qualify for public financing. But it is Uballez who still poses the most danger to Keller--if he can restart his campaign with robust fund-raising and more energy.

A Keller-Uballez run-off would have more potential for an upset than a Keller-White face off which would, as Alcon said, likely be a layup for Keller.  

NOTHING COMING EASY

Mayor Keller

The failure of anyone but Keller to qualify for public financing is seen by some political veterans as the death knell for the mayoral race--that it is over before it has started. But there is time for a candidate to do the unexpected and pull away from the pack. 

The key is obviously fundraising and reigniting voter discontent over crime and homelessness, two issues that have slowed Keller in public polling and that remain persistent.

To make Keller vulnerable his opposition will have to "denationalize" the race, arguing that what is happening in ABQ cannot and should not be rationalized away by similar problems in other cities. They must make an electorate that seems quiescent, if not apathetic, feel differently. 

Indicting Keller's leadership on public safety and offering a believable alternative will be essential.

It will be anything but easy. 

The lack of a major foe for Keller points to his effectiveness as a politician with a solid organization, his superior communication skills, his resistance to the narrative that the city's best days are behind it and his near constant introduction of new and interesting solutions--even if many have failed in the past eight years. Also, for the majority Democrats his leadership contrasts well with that of President Trump which also helped him in his 2017 election.

That's a lot of string for his opponents to unwind and the clock starts now.  

Joe Monahan began his journalism and blogging career in 1974, covering the first ABQ mayoral race conducted under the new City Charter. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Securing the Democratic nomination for governor won't come at a bargain basement price. Inflation isn't exempting the cost of campaigning and the $4 million that MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti each spent in 2022 to win their nominations is expected to be equaled and likely surpassed.

Already Deb Haaland says she has raised nearly as much as Lujan Grisham spent in her three way primary, reporting a total of $3.7 million raised. Haaland spent $1.7 million as of April 7.

What does that mean for BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, Haaland's chief rival? We put that question to a veteran Dem consultant not affiliated with any Guv campaign: 

Bregman will definitely have to raise and spend $3 to 5 million if he wants to compete against Haaland. She may or may not spend more but for Bregman $3 million is the low, low end to stay in the fight. 

What about the immense wealth that Bregman's son has accumulated with his stellar baseball career? Could that come into play? The consultant replied:

His son would not give him vast sums as an individual. The maximum amount an individual can contribute is $12,000 per election cycle (primary or general election), meaning a total of $24,000 if contributing to both. But Bregman's son (Alex) could donate as much as he wanted to a political action committee that would support his father's campaign. That is an ace in the hole that Bregman may have that could make a real difference if in the months ahead he gets the race in play.

Despite the continued decline in audience for over the air TV stations like KOB, KOAT and KRQE, political ads at those stations are more than keeping up with inflation. Back to the consultant:

It wasn't long ago that an effective ad buy--at least 1,000 ratings points per week was going for $100,000. That price is more than double now, so it will cost the candidates at least $1.6 million to stay on TV in ABQ for the two months head of next June's primary. And that does not include El Paso to reach Las Cruces voters. 

Broadcast TV and cable is still important in campaign advertising because voters aged 50 and over still depend on them as their main source of information and they are the age group most likely to vote. 

Bregman has just begun his fund-raising and reported $76,000 in cash in April. 

The consultant says we won't need early polling to determine the leader in the race, saying if Bregman has not raised around $2 million by late fall, it could be a sign of trouble. Ditto for Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima who faces the steepest fundraising hill to climb. 

WHAT THEY ARE

Here's some insider info on the TV game that is so critical to the candidates as explained by campaign operatives:

 In TV advertising, "1,000 points" refers to Gross Ratings points that measures the reach and frequency of an ad campaign. One GRP represents 1% of the target audience reached by an advertisement. If a TV ad reaches 1% of a target audience of 100,000 people, that’s 1 GRP. If the ad airs multiple times, the GRPs accumulate. This means the ad campaign has achieved a cumulative reach equivalent to 1,000% of the target audience. For instance, it could mean reaching 100% of the audience 10 times (frequency) or 50% of the audience 20 times, depending on the campaign structure.

Thanks, but that's like going to summer school. Time to jump in the pool and sign along with this.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Jon Lipschutz

Sam Bregman hardly had time to gloat over the news that Deb Haaland's campaign manager was forced out the door when Bregman's manager for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination was dropped in hot water:

A new lawsuit filed by the New Mexico Ethics Commission alleges the nonprofit New Mexico Safety over Profit failed to report at least $56,000 spent lobbying against medical malpractice reform before the legislative session. The group’s executive director, Jon Lipschutz, manages. . .Sam Bregman’s campaign. Bregman also serves as the (Bernalillo County) District attorney. . .New Mexico Safety Over Profit operates as a 501c(4) nonprofit, putting it under no federal legal obligations to disclose its donors, thus earning the moniker “dark money groups.” . .. That federal status, however, does not exempt the organization from the disclosure requirements of New Mexico’s Lobbyist Regulation Act or Campaign Reporting Act. 

Lipschutz is a longtime time Dem operative who operates the firm Big I Strategies and comes at his politics from the center-right, not exactly the dominant strain in today's progressive dominated Dem party. But Bregman is veering right and trying to break that mold and upset Haaland for the nomination next June.

That both of the leading Dem candidates are navigating troubles with their managers at this early stage is not exactly inspiring for the party but the Republicans are also wobbling early.

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, the only official GOP hopeful, appears on the edge of pulling out of the race and possible contender Duke Rodriguez is encountering turbulence over his voter registration and voter history.

Back at the Haaland camp, mum is the word over the story we broke revealing that her campaign manager, Scott Forrester, was sent to the showers because of disputes over campaign finances and strategy. 

When asked for comment by the New Mexican a spokeswoman for Haaland would not even acknowledge that Forrester was ousted. (Is that how they would run the government?)

Since then we've learned that the financial issue is over how much Forrester has been compensated by the campaign and that talks continue over that and any future role he might have.

Watching all of this from the sidelines is the third Dem candidate for the nomination, former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima. Hey, Ken. How's your manager doing?  

CAMPAIGN JAB 

Before he got the bad news on Lipschutz, Bregman fired off this fund-raising appeal in the aftermath of the Forrester news with plenty of indirect jibes at front-runner Haaland: 

Too many politicians in Washington are weak, and Democrats are not doing enough to fight back. They cave under pressure. Meanwhile, families in New Mexico are desperate for real change. Our schools are struggling. Crime is on the rise. Healthcare is out of reach for too many. And while the political class talks in circles, folks back home pay the price. That’s why I’m running for Governor. Not to play it safe. Not to climb the political ladder. But to get things done and to fight for New Mexicans who are tired of excuses.

Haaland isn't dignifying Bregman with any hits at this stage and doesn't need to. But she does have her hands full steadying her campaign that in the post-Kamala Harris era finds itself on shifting ground.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Heinrich in Taos

Criticized for being adrift in the US Senate and for not actually liking the job, Senator Martin Heinrich seems to be finding his voice in the early stages of his third term.

That's thanks in no small part to President Trump and Republican lawmakers whose environmental policies especially rankle the Democratic senator with a well-known fondness for the natural environment. 

Senate Republicans are proposing to sell off up to 3.3 million acres of federally owned land in 11 Western states to make room for affordable housing, a move Heinrich calls a "fire sale and "taking up a sledgehammer."

Here's Heinrich, the state's senior senator, at a Taos rally called to fight the plan as well as the president's push for more power to abolish national monuments including several in New Mexico: 

Our national monuments are about who we are. They tell the story of our ancestors, support jobs and our rural economies, and connect Americans to our history and the land itself. No president can erase that. … We’re ready to fight back — and we won’t back down.

It's the kind of sharp-edged rhetoric that is not a Heinrich trademark but now with what he sees as an existential threat hanging over the lands that he cherishes, he is revealing a firmer and more confident voice backed up by his increasing seniority.

Just months ago Heinrich was close to leaving his job and announcing a run for governor. We discussed his change of heart with a close Heinrich political associate:

He really dropped his bid for governor because the arrival of Trump gave a new depth and seriousness to his position as a senator. It wasn't political. He sees his work now in a different light with more urgency and focus as the stakes go sky high for the issues that he cares most about. 

Heinrich's rise to ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has put more institutional power behind him. If the Democrats take back the Senate in the years ahead he will likely become chairman of that committee so important to the state. 

He is now following the career paths of Senators Domenici and Bingaman who found great satisfaction chairing the panel, a feeling that Heinrich, who came to the Hill in 2009 as a congressman, finally appears to be realizing.

Heinrich, 52, quietly campaigned to become Secretary of Interior under President Biden who eventually chose fellow New Mexican Deb Haaland. But if he sustains this trajectory of his senate career--ironically inspired by Trump--his strengthened voice will reverberate on the Hill and the nation.

THE JUNIOR SENATOR

Meanwhile, Senator Ben Ray Lujan, seeking re-election to a second term next year, also appears to be finding renewed purpose in the chaotic DC atmosphere. 

While Heinrich concentrates on the state's environment and natural resources, Lujan, a new member of of the Senate Finance Committee, is focusing on the nitty gritty of entitlement programs--Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and food stamps--that are the target of budget-cutters. They are especially vital in high poverty New Mexico. He says:

. . .Cuts would shut down clinics, rip away food and care, and leave families with nowhere to turn. For seniors living on fixed incomes, for parents working to make ends meet, and for rural communities already facing barriers to care – these programs are lifelines. I will keep fighting in the Senate to stop these cuts and protect the dignity and well-being of every New Mexican. 

Like Heinrich, Lujan, 53, came to Washington as a congressman in 2009. He has always demonstrated notable political skills but they have atrophied since his arrival in the Senate. But with Trump also reinvigorating him, the state's US Senate delegation is looking balanced and equipped for their long battle ahead. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Duke Rodriguez

Foes of marijuana magnate Duke Rodriguez are trying to slow his swagger while he considers a bid for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination and says that he could put up $2 million of personal money to make the run. Those foes appear to have been successful in tying him up on his voting history as Rodriguez wins an endorsement from his former boss, ex-Governor Gary Johnson. 

The Rodriguez rivals are focusing on his residency and voting history in the state, feeding the rumor mill that Rodriguez may not have been a NM resident for the five consecutive years required of would-be governors by the state constitution. 

In addition, they say that Rodriguez only registered to vote in the state earlier this year and that there is no record of him casting ballots in in recent state elections. 

Those charges, according to state records, appears to be a fact. They show that Rodriguez did not register to vote until January 14 of this year and does not have any history of voting in recent state elections.  

Rodriguez, 68, has a home in the far NE Heights of ABQ and also a residence in Scottsdale, AZ where his marijuana business Ultra Health, New Mexico's largest cannabis company, is headquartered. 

We interviewed Rodriguez via email, asking first about his registration and residency. He said:   

I am a registered voter in New Mexico, and I have owned a home here continuously since 1979. In just

the short time since expressing interest in this race, it’s become clear that some would rather focus on distraction and rumor. The three most common falsehoods I’ve heard so far: I don’t live in New Mexico; I’ve donated to Democrats and I own a cannabis company. Here are the facts: 

 • I have resided in New Mexico continuously for over five years—indeed, for over four decades. 

 • Like many in our close-knit state, I’ve supported individuals across party lines when the cause or candidate aligned with New Mexico’s needs.  

• And yes, I proudly operate a successful cannabis company that provides jobs, contributes to the economy, and reflects the will of New Mexico voters.

Monahan: While you’re registered to vote from ABQ, there’s no voting history (on the SOS website). Have you voted in New Mexico elections recently? And were you registered in Arizona recently before New Mexico?  

Rodriguez: I’ve answered clearly. At this point, I’m taking a page from Governor Gary Johnson’s playbook—keep it focused, keep it real, and don’t take the bait. Truth is, we’re all a little worn out from the same old political playbook: stir up drama, throw some shade, hope nobody notices there’s no real plan. That’s not my style. I’m here to talk about ideas, solutions, and a better path forward for New Mexico. So I’ll keep it positive. Let others play the “they said” game—I’m too busy working on what we can do. 

But Rodriguez did not "clearly" answer the questions. His recent NM voter registration and lack of a voting history is now an issue. As for having five years of consecutive residency, that is sure to be argued over until completely sorted out. 

All of this leaves plenty of fodder for the sharks circulating in Republican waters as the race for the nomination prepares to intensify.

DUKE AND JOHNSON 

Gary Johnson

Meanwhile, former Governor Gary Johnson ('95-'03), who Rodriguez served under as cabinet secretary for the Human Services Department and who pushed for legalized marijuana during his two terms, offers an early endorsement of his former employee. Rodriguez sent this text exchange between the pair: 

Johnson: Duke, I would love to have a conversation with you about

your running for governor.  I absolutely believe that you can win and need to win for the future of New Mexico. Gary Johnson.

Rodriguez: Thank you again for a great conversation. Would you mind if I share your message? 

Johnson: Share it! 

The only announced candidate for the GOP nod is Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. Other possibles include former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, former NM Supreme Court Justice Judy Nakamura and Roswell state representative and oilman Mark Murphy.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The Rodriguez possible candidacy resurfaced an issue rarely mentioned--the five year residency requirement for governor candidates. Here's the deal. . .

To run for governor a candidate must be a resident of the state for at least five consecutive years immediately preceding the election. The requirement is stated in the New Mexico Constitution, Article V, Section 3. Also, the candidate must be at least 30 years old, a citizen of the United States, and not have served two consecutive terms as governor. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Forrester & Haaland

Our senior sources report that veteran political consultant Scott Forrester is out as campaign manager for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland. 

The reasons given are unspecified concerns over campaign finances and squabbling over strategy.

We sought comment from Forrester but received no response and could not reach a campaign spokesperson.

Forrester, 43, has a resume that includes managing Haaland's first US House campaign in 2018, serving as NM Dem Party executive director and as chief of staff to ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury, a post he surrendered when he signed up with Haaland's Guv campaign. 

The Haaland campaign has raised a hefty $3.7 million this year but since there are no details on the financial angle of Forrester's departure, let's take a look at the push and pull over how the candidate is being positioned. 

Haaland's play it safe strategy, dubbed "staying in the basement" by supporters of her rival Sam Bregman, has, according to one source, caused a "divide" in the campaign.   

The personnel shake-up comes after mediocre reviews of Haaland's first months on the trail, with criticism centering on the lack of substance in her messaging and the play it safe strategy that is backed up by her successful fund-raising. 

Haaland, coming off a stint as Sec. of Interior under President Biden, has seemed caught off guard by the critics and may be looking to beef up her image and be more forthright on policy. 

But some of her advisors, fearful that Haaland, who had trouble as a cabinet secretary articulating department policy, could make a major blunder that could give Bregman and her other foe, Ken Miyagishima, an opening. 

OUT OF THE BASEMENT 

Haaland does "come out of the basement" but when she does she is very careful climbing the steps. Her long-standing slogan of being "fierce" can seem out of context.

The subjects she has chosen to sparsely address include water, veterans and Trump's proposed budget cuts, issues that provoke little debate in the party.  

A speech she gave on economic policy was exceptionally light on detail prompting push back that she is not identifying with the major issues confronting everyday New Mexicans such as the rising cost of living, affordable housing, excessive crime, poor education, last in the nation child-well being and other complex policy matters.

Political pros say part of the problem stems from Haaland's early launch, coming as it did well over a year before the June '26 primary and as Sen. Martin Heinrich talked of joining the race which seemed to force her hand. Candidates usually begin announcing their intentions about now--a year or so before the primary. 

Some criticism of Haaland may be overstated and she remains the clear font-runner to secure the nomination. Most candidates in the early going shy away from  a position that could cost them votes. But the danger for Haaland is compounded by her uber-progressive politics while on Capitol Hill. 

The Dems are in the process of shedding much of their "woke" agenda as they get crushed by Trump. Haaland will need to pivot to a more moderate stance. That is a path filled with craters that both her Dem and GOP opponents will pounce on no matter how subtly she handles the maneuver. 

Suffice it to say the departure of her first campaign manager, while not an event that will garner notice outside of political circles, does signal that the house of Haaland still has work to do in putting down a firm foundation. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Morales

Lieutenant Governors are the step children of La Politica. None of them in the modern era has gone on to become Governor and so it is for current Lt. Gov. Howie Morales. 

He says he rejected a gubernatorial run--a run we doubt he ever seriously considered--and will apparently concentrate on nailing down the lucrative and vacant position of president of Western New Mexico University in his hometown of Silver City. His starting salary there could be in the $300,000 range).

The job would be a soft landing for the 52 year old former state senator and professional educator--and he would join former Attorney General Hector Balderas in that club. 

Balderas followed his two term stint as AG not by running for Guv but becoming the well-compensated ($232,500 a year) president of Northern New Mexico Community College. 

Balderas and Morales raised hopes that one of them would be the first native born Hispanic male  to take the office since Toney Anaya served one unpopular term from 1983 to '87. 

(Gov. Martinez was born in El Paso. Gov. Richardson, who was half-Hispanic, was born in California. MLG is also half-Hispanic although she is a native.) 

Morales and Balderas are affable personalities but neither had the political punch to advance to the governorship. Balderas toyed with the notion in 2018 but melted when MLG and company put the pressure on. 

Still, both come from humble backgrounds and their success is not shabby.  

Morales gets praise for competently presiding over the state senate, one of the few constitutional duties of the office, but he never waded deeply into any of Santa Fe's power centers. Even if he wanted to, MLG was not of a mind to let him spread his wings. 

While the # 2 under MLG bows to political reality, former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who served eight years under Martinez, is said by insiders to be contemplating a bid for the top job. 

He is a native Hispanic male but he is also a Republican. That's not necessarily a deadly combination but neither is it an elixir to break the long exile of our state's second bananas from the Governor's office 

VIRGIN'S PROBLEM

Sir Richard Branson

Reader Alan Schwarz writes of our Monday blog on the ongoing financial woes of Virgin Galactic, the main tenant of the NM Spaceport:  

The problem down in T or C is two problems, Virgin Galactic and Spaceport America. 

Sir Richard Branson, owner of Virgin, made his money selling about a billion dollars of VG stock over the years. The fact that many of his business ventures have been shut down shows he knows when to hold um and, most importantly, when to fold. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for our esteemed Legislature that continues to advance millions for the Spaceport every budget cycle. 

Note that the Spaceport's premiere event, the student rocket competition, which accounts for the majority of onsite visitors each year, relocated to Midland Texas. 

As for quotes, here is one of my favorites from Californian Willie Brown, 

“In the world of civic projects, the first budget is really just a down payment. If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. The idea is to get going. Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.” 

We still see hope for the Spaceport but as Schwarz notes something is going to have to fill the hole, if Virgin goes belly-up there. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

The race to muster the financial resources to effectively compete with ABQ Mayor Tim Keller in the November 4 election is now in the panic stage.

The challengers in the 11 person field seeking to qualify for public financing have dropped their bids for the $756,000 and are now going hat in hand seeking private contributions while Keller closes in on getting that generous pot of taxpayer cash. 

The latest and last to give up are Dem City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Republican BernCo Sheriff Darren white.

Only Keller is set to collect the required 3,870 individual $5 donations needed to qualify for $756,000 in taxpayer funds to run his campaign for a third consecutive term. He has 80 percent of them and enough time to finish the job. 

It's hard to overstate how huge a development this is in the 2025 chase for Mayor. 

The opposition candidates have a mountain to climb to raise at least $500,000 each that political consultants say is the minimum necessary to effectively compete with the mayor. 

The candidates are also required to collect 3,000 petition signatures from registered voters to appear on the November 4 ballot.

Keller, Alex Uballez and Daniel Chavez have all qualified. 

White, Sanchez and Eddie Varela appeared poised to make it. Mayling Armijo has 53 percent of the signatures needed as the June 21 deadline approaches. 

SOMBER DEVELOPMENT

Darren White

Despite as many as six other choices, if the money chase continues to stagnate observers believe there is a chance that Keller could actually capture 50 percent of the vote and avoid a runoff election that would be required between the top two finishers if no one captures a majority. 

That is a very high bar but now at least visible after the public financing debacle that struck the alternative campaigns.  

Veteran Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta called the failure of any Keller challenger to get the big pot of public money "a somber development for his opponents." 

All eyes are now on parking tycoon Daniel Chavez who has already donated $100,000 of his personal money to finance the collection of the ballot signatures. Will he reach again for his checkbook? 

If Chavez wants to play some more he may have to. 

He is running as an independent but has hired a Republican consulting firm. It won't be easy to attract private cash in a race that Keller is now seen as dominating. The pressure is on political unknown Chavez to make a game of it and tap his own account. 

White is dealing with a very divided Republican party that will make his raising of private money a heavy lift. 

SENIOR ANALYSIS 

One of our Senior Alligators (a very reliable and experienced source of many years for the newbies out there) says of Keller's standing.

The election is now close to being his to lose. Or maybe already is. Uballez will have to hit him hard from the left to shake Keller's progressive base. Chavez or Mayling Armijo going aggressively after the center and right would help. White getting the money to be relevant is another factor. The chances of all this happening don't seem high. 

In 2021 Keller qualified for public financing and his two opponents did not but one of them, Sheriff Manny Gonzales, was able to raise more private money than the public amount being awarded. Gonzales still lost in a landslide in the three way race. 

This year's campaign began with Keller's opponents convinced that the high crime and ongoing homeless problem in the city would spell his doom. Now his opponents are looking at their own doomsday if this exhausted mayoral field can't regroup and make a fight of it.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Many New Mexicans long ago wrote off the chances of tourists being launced into space on Virgin Galactic rockets from the NM Spaceport near T or C. After all it's been nearly 20 years since the plan was announced by Virgin's billionaire owner Sir Richard Branson and then Gov. Bill Richardson.

So, while hope still springs eternal in a few quarters, the company's cash is making the firmest forecast. As we hear in this update from longtime Spaceport watcher Brent Eastwood in DC there could be cloudy days to come: 

Joe: Virgin Galactic's latest earnings are not good. The company had only $500,000 in revenue in the first quarter. They lost $84 million--a little better than the $102 million they lost in Q1 2024. These guys are losing money faster than a rapper at a strip club. 

They say they are working on the new spacecraft that will launch the tourists and that there will be regular flights in the fall of 2026. Here is the problem. Since they are losing on average about $100 million a quarter and they need another six quarters before there are regular flights, they need around $600 million in reserves. 

They have $567 million in cash left as of March 31. Virgin Galactic could run out of money before the space tourists can fly on a regular basis and that's assuming no delays with the new spacecraft. Sir Richard would need to put in more funds which he says he won't do. So here we are. 

Virgin Galactic's share price was at $3.32 a share Friday, with the market valuing the company at $134 million. 

Barron's reports:

The company’s goal is to essentially build a “spaceline” business—think airline, but for space—with multiple Delta class ships operating at multiple spaceports around the world. It’s a bold vision that has been difficult to achieve. Sales in 2025 are expected to be less than $2 million. In 2019, when the company became publicly traded Virgin Galactic projected 2022 sales of about $400 million. Revenue came in just over $2 million that year.    

BROADBAND UPDATE

Look beyond the state's borders and the program to provide broadband internet to deprived rural areas keeps looking worse. 

The state is still refusing to start distributing the service via available satellite links and clinging fast to expensive high speed fiber--no matter how long it takes. 

This looks nearly ludicrous in the face of a barrage of news, including a report that the kids in rural India needing broadband could very well get it before our kids do. Why? Because they are going with Starlink service:

Elon Musk’s Starlink Inc. has got regulatory approval in India, paving the way for rolling out its satellite internet services in the world’s most-populous country. Starlink has secured the license from India’s telecom ministry, according to a government official, who spoke to reporters in New Delhi, asking not to be named as the information is not public yet.

And there's this:

A growing number of states are rolling out subsidies for satellite connectivity in rural areas, a change that could be a boon to Elon Musk’s Starlink and another nascent service from Amazon. From Maine to Nevada, states are starting to help some of the 24 million Americans who lack reliable broadband pay for satellite internet, rather than focusing such aid primarily on fiber connectivity as they have in the past. 

We haven't quoted the great former NM territorial Gov. Lew Wallace lately, but it's high time:

Every calculation based on experience elsewhere fails in New Mexico.

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Time again for another edition of the always popular Reader Vox Populi. 

And we're off. . .

Our Thursday May 29 report exploring homelessness in ABQ drew a number of insightful responses. Former Dem state Senator Jerry Oritz y Pino writes: 

Joe, you are pinpointing one of the real causes for the dilemma of homelessness, the growing wealth disparity in the country as a whole. It has little to do with any local Mayor or City Council's ability to reduce the cost of housing or to increase the earning power of most families. We are reaping the result of national policies that have incentivized billionaires and discouraged working people. 

Trump's "big, beautiful bill" will drastically reduce Medicaid funds for working age adults—precisely the funding source that New Mexico and other states have made use of to pay for the treatment, rehabilitation, and supportive services needed by mentally ill and drug and alcohol addicted persons if they will ever leave the streets. Adding in the "work requirement" before someone qualifies for Medicaid is a cruel joke or hoax. Which employer in their right mind would ever hire actively psychotic or addicted people before they get treatment? 

Trish Livingston writes:

Joe, I really enjoy your blog each morning and learn quite a lot! Finding solutions for homelessness is quite a challenge but not insurmountable. New Mexico politicians need to look outside their box and get creative by looking at models around the world that work. Houston has reduced homelessness by more than 60 percent by bringing together local government, nonprofits and faith-based groups under one clear goal - get people housed quickly and permanently. They use a "Housing First" approach, which means no hoops to jump through—just stable housing first, then support with things like jobs, addiction, or mental health. It’s been incredibly effective. To me, that’s the kind of model that deserves more attention—practical, compassionate, and results-driven. It shows we can make real progress when we focus on what actually works. Hopefully your words can be the impetus for our state leaders to look into some of these solutions for our state. 

Reader Jim McClure writes:

Low-cost housing won’t eliminate the homeless crisis but it’s an important part of the solution. Mayor Keller deserves credit for converting old motels and encouraging casitas, but Santa Fe bureaucrats are moving in the opposite direction by adding environmental regulations that increase the cost of new homes. Rent controls and breathtakingly expensive public-housing projects aren’t much help. Government can encourage the building of more starter homes by modifying zoning regulations, streamlining permitting and removing restrictions on the use and financing of manufactured homes. The Navajo Nation is moving in this direction with a plan for manufactured homes. 

Homeowners get tax breaks but renters get squat. How about a refundable tax break for renters that could be set aside for a down payment? If politicians are serious about helping their constituents become homeowners, there’s a lot they can do. 

MAYORAL MONEY 

Joe Monahan

The email also came in (newsguy@yahoo.com) as we ramped up our coverage of the ABQ mayoral candidates seeking public financing for their campaigns. . .  

An anonymous reader reacts to that tongue-lashing former Dem Lt. Governor Diane Denish gave to mayoral hopeful Alex Uballez after he complained that qualifying for public financing is too difficult and he's switched to private fund-raising:

Joe, thank you for sharing Diane Denish’s submission. I think it does nothing but prove Mr. Uballez’s point. Well, there it is – she’s in a club where she got her ”public voice” card stamped a long, long time ago and Keller just renewed it for 2025. A few more blog submissions and she gets a free sub sandwich. 

What is she saying? - don’t you dare run for office until you bend the knee and kiss the ring of the political class because before you try to actually help the people, you have to kiss their butts?  Thanks for proving the point by running an opinion of someone that hasn’t been viable in a decade and a half but still has her current NM La Politica membership card so her "public voice" should be heard. 

Reader Barry Simon writes of the proposal we floated here Wednesday for modest reform of the current public financing system:

I would add to the suggested changes for public financing that a citizen can contribute $5 to more than one candidate.  

3,780 individual $5 donations from registered voters are necessary to qualify for $756,000 in public financing for the mayor's race.

(City Clerk Ethan Watson clarified after this report that voters can make the $5 contributions to more than one candidate.) 

We began our coverage of ABQ mayoral races with the very first one in 1974 for KUNM radio. There were over 30 candidates on the ballot! It was in the middle of the Watergate scandal when public financing campaigns first got a serious look. And over fifty years later, here we are today. . .

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Griego (left) with Keller (right) 2008

The belly-aching over ABQ's public financing system for mayoral candidates has reached maximum volume with multiple candidates in this year's mayoral derby complaining that the requirements to qualify for taxpayer money are too difficult. 

Former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish was quoted here Monday criticizing candidate Alex Uballez for lamenting his unsuccessful effort to obtain public funds. Uballez was coming up far short of the needed $5 individual donations from registered city voters before he gave up and switched to private fund-raising. 

But Eric Griego, a progressive Dem former city councilor who served from 2001-2005 and is the godfather of today's public financing law, tells us it is time for "reasonable reforms."

Joe -My intention when I started working with community members in 2005 on Albuquerque’s Open and Ethical Elections system was to make it so more people could run successfully for local office. Short of a constitutional amendment we can’t do much to end unlimited outside spending by PACs, thanks to the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision. 

However, we can and should improve the current public financing system to make it more feasible for all serious candidates. Currently, it is difficult for anyone other than incumbents and career politicians with strong partisan ties to qualify. 

In the 2025 mayor’s race, if the current trend continues, only one candidate – the incumbent – will likely qualify for the more than $750,000 provided. . .If we want to keep public financing. . .we must address this barrier as well as make other reasonable reforms. . .

First, the threshold for qualifying for public financing in mayoral races needs to be cut in half from the current roughly 3,850  $5 contributions to 2,000.

Second, the time period for collecting qualifying contributions needs to be extended from the current 64 days to at least 90 days. 

Third, oversight and penalties for coordination with Measure Finance Committees needs to be improved. Former campaign staff or family members of candidates should not be allowed to run or fund these supposedly independent PACs. 

Until we find a solution to the corrosive effects of big money in elections at all levels, we need to make alternatives like the Albuquerque public financing system viable alternatives to changing who runs, who they answer to and where their money comes from. It is a relatively small step to improving our local democracy, but it matters.

Observers point out there is a fine line  to draw with any changes. Lower the bar too much and the cost to taxpayers could easily soar to $10 million or more each election as multiple mayor candidates qualify. 

HOW ABOUT THIS? 

Here's a plan we've been mulling over. 

How about adjusting the amount of public money candidates could qualify for? Keep the current requirement of 3,780 individual $5 donations from registered city voters, but adjust it so a candidate could collect less than the full $756,000 in funding. 

For example, a candidate who obtained 1,500 of the donations could quality for $150,000 and if they chose, stop right there.

A contender who submitted 2,000 donations would qualify for $200,000-- and could call it a day. 

And so on up the ladder with more more funding for more signatures. But only a candidate who managed to get all 3,780 donations would be awarded the full $756,000. 

This would give the incumbent mayor less of an advantage but also keep the costs manageable. We'd like to see a hearty debate.

THE GRIEGO FILE

Griego, 59, left his Council seat in 2005 to challenge Mayor Marty Chavez along with two other hopefuls. There was no public financing option in that race. Chavez was elected to his second consecutive term with 47% of the vote, with Griego coming in second with 26%. Chavez served a total of three terms. Griego later went on to serve a term in the state senate from 2009-13. 

Here's our Election Night blog from October 5, 2005. We have to say that rereading it 20 years later, it's pretty electric. (I'm sure Marty would agree.) Our lead:

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez ceded no territory to his overwhelmed foes last night as he marched virtually unopposed through the city and laid claim to a historic third, four year term. It was a victory unprecedented in its scope, featuring geographic and demographic dominance that politicians dream of but rarely realize. Chavez also ended a 30 year curse and became the first mayor to win two terms in a row. The only opposition was a record low turnout that thwarted the 53 year old city native's drive for an unquestionable mandate.

Yeah, we always liked lighting the night up. . .

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Mayor Hull

Is Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull getting weak in the knees over his candidacy for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination? 

The middle of the road Republican has sent out an enigmatic news release saying that he delayed his planned June 2 formal announcement. 

That could set the stage for his withdrawal from the race, if things don't start looking up. 

From the release:

Hull. . .will continue engaging with voters and community leaders. . .ahead of an anticipated formal campaign launch. Originally eyeing June 2 the campaign is choosing to extend its listening tour to ensure that our platform reflects the real concerns, hopes, and priorities of New Mexicans. . . Rather than focusing on political timelines or headlines, Hull is focused on building a winning coalition and a policy-driven campaign. . .

Hull, the only announced GOP Guv hopeful, has raised about $200,000 in the early going. He is largely unknown outside the ABQ metro. 

The mayor is under the gun when it comes to his political future. He still has the option of seeking a fourth term in 2026 but that window will soon begin closing so decision time looms. He has been a popular and effective mayor and his re-election prospects would appear solid. 

Also haunting Hull is the expected candidacy of former Lt. Governor John Sanchez. 

In his release Hull appeared to take indirect swipes at Sanchez who served two terms under divisive GOP Governor Susana Martinez:

(Voters have) seen what happens when ego and division rule the Roundhouse. We’re building a campaign that listens, respects individual community needs, and has a winning vision for New Mexico’s future. The campaign remains in a strategic growth phase, focused on building the infrastructure, fundraising base, and grassroots team necessary to win both the primary and general election. 

RONCHETTI RESURFACES 

Mark Ronchetti

While Hull struggles to find his footing, Republican Mark Ronchetti, the 2022 GOP Guv nominee who lost to MLG, says he is not ruling out another run in the June '26 primary. A longtime TV weatherman, Ronchetti is now a podcaster. 

Ronchetti and the GOP are closely monitoring the November ABQ mayoral election for any signs of weakening in the large Democratic and progressive base in the city that might give them a better shot at retaking the Governor's office.

Meanwhile Sanchez has been as quiet as can be about a possible run but his name is being widely circulated and former GOP Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi has told associates that he believes Sanchez is coming in. But much uncertainty remains about the GOP primary field and Hull's news release only adds to that.  

MAYOR CHASE

Diane Denish

Democratic party warhorse Diane Denish is a former two term lieutenant governor, former party chair and the 2010 Dem Guv nominee. The veteran politico says she doesn't have much patience for political newcomer and Dem ABQ mayoral candidate Alex Uballez who has complained about the difficulty of qualifying for $756,000 in public campaign funds. Denish writes on the socials:

It's really strange to hear Uballez complain about public financing and how hard it is to get enough $5 contributions and somehow suggesting that because Keller has built name ID, a volunteer infrastructure and strong support, it's not fair to him. Is he that naive? If you think qualifying for public financing is hard, try being Mayor. And, yes Alex, you are a politician. You are running for office. Welcome to the world where you have to work hard to get public finance.

Uballez withdrew his bid to qualify for public financing asserting the system now favors "entrenched" politicians. He will now privately finance. He comes with this op-ed on his candidacy. 

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