Maybe if you get to blow out a hundred candles you'll see something like this again, but we doubt it. All three New Mexico US House members are vacating their seats to run for a US Senate seat which in turn is being vacated by the longest serving senator in state history. The cherry on top of this giant political sundae is the first serious presidential campaign ever conducted by a New Mexican who is a sitting Governor to boot. Far in the future, while you're bouncing the grandkids on your knee, you can put down that book of favorite fairy tales and pick up the 2008 book of La Politica. It will rival the best of fables.

The historic turning point was set to happen ever since Democrat Tom Udall indicated he would join fellow US Reps. and Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce in seeking the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici, but until he took to a stage Thursday at the National Hispanic Cultural Center and mouthed the magic words--"I am running"--there was room for doubt. No more.

Udall turned in a serviceable performance. The 59 year old reminds you of the guy who is first at the party and the first to leave, but he did his best to induce some excitement with remarks that were drained of any suspense by several weeks of pre-game hype. Perhaps mindful of concerns that the five term congressman who has faced no serious opposition in ten years may be lacking in "the fire in the belly" department, his campaign spun Tom Pettys hit, "Won't Back Down" as he strode to the podium. There, he was greeted by his wife Jill and daughter Amanda who insiders note have more appetite for confrontation than the mild-mannered man they were there to urge on.

And confrontation is what ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez hopes it will be as he wages an underdog battle for the Democratic Senate nomination against the Tucson born Udall. The Congressman, also a two-time Attorney General winner, knows how to nurse a lead. He subtly reminded loyalists that he was drafted by national Dems and was not seeking the Senate because of his personal ambition. He said the Dems lack the Senate numbers to make "meaningful change." He came close to acknowledging Chavez only once. Near the end of his 16 minute speech, he called on all of those running to keep the campaign "positive and purposeful." Hear that Marty?

US SENATE STRATEGY

Udall will be Mr. Positive Thinking personified as long as he holds that 20 point lead he has in the polls. In fact, the Alligators say Udall's main job between now and the mid-March preprimary convention is to avoid Chavez, roll out some big name endorsements, raise money and shore up his Hispanic support.

A historic reality--Hispanics win Democratic primaries-- hangs over Udall's head and one he will spend the opening days of his campaign addressing. Choosing to announce at the National Hispanic Cultural Center was no accident. Neither is his travel schedule following the announcement. He will go to Silver City, Las Cruces, Mora, Santa Fe and Las Vegas, but will not be in any of the "Little Texas" counties like Lea, Otero or Chavez. The only Eastside stop will be Clovis which is in his congressional district. Some strategists believe the rural Anglo areas--even though conservative--will have a natural inclination toward Udall over Chavez in the primary. Also, turnout could be lowest in those areas as neither liberal Udall or Chavez is going to have them filling the bleachers.

It is the Spanish North, the ABQ Valley and the small cities along the Rio Grande south of Albuquerque down to Cruces where the Dem Hispanic vote is concentrated. Because his unfavorable ratings are high, that vote has not naturally come home to Chavez. But what worries Camp Udall is Chavez's tireless dedication, his willingness to go negative at the drop of a piñon nut, and that historic propensity of Hispanic Dems to perform well in primaries.

EVEN MORE STRATEGY

The pollsters say in a "high-information" race such as US Senate, ethnic voting is dampened as voters are well acquainted with the personalities of those running. That gives Udall breathing room, but those already writing Chavez off are cautioned by the polling pros to slow down and take a deep breath.

Still, by any measure Udall is the front runner. He is a liberal Democrat running in a relatively low turnout primary in which liberals will have an outsized say. Because he has lost much of the current Democratic base, Chavez may have to bring into the primary voting booths voters who normally don't go there; perhaps older Hispanics who usually vote in the fall but not in the primary.

Chavez, 55, will also need considerable money to start turning the numbers. Udall will have a million bucks in the bank soon. Chavez will need hefty amounts early to start media to repair his damaged image and also to make the case against Udall. National Dems who urged Udall into the race are sure to try to starve Marty's bank account.

ON THE PLATE NOW

Most immediately for our Senate hopefuls is organizing for the mid-March preprimary convention. Only Marty and Tom are expected to be able to get at least 20% of the delegate votes necessary to win a spot on the June primary ballot. Taos publisher Leland Lehrman, who announces his candidacy today on an impeach Bush platform, is also running. However, unless the Legislature reinstates the provision allowing a candidate to collect petition signatures to get on the ballot if denied a spot at the convention, Leland's chances of making the ballot are slim to none, and slim may have just left town.

If Udall scores a 60% plus victory over Chavez at the preprimary, it will be a momentum sapper for the three term ABQ mayor. Also, will prominent national Dems come forward for Udall in a contested primary? Such endorsements could be another Chavez problem.

Udall is going to be tough to trump on message. He went all liberal all-the-time at yesterday's announcement, just what the base wants to hear. It was out of Iraq, no to the Patriot Act and yes to environmental protection, a cause the Udall's have been associated with for decades. Chavez's "strong leader" argument may be more effective for a general election campaign than an issue oriented Democratic primary. How is he a different Democrat than Udall, not a different leader, may be the question he will have to answer. After Udall announced, Chavez, who has been beating his foe up like a rented mule, was a bit softer. "We can't change Washington with more Washington politicians." He said.

THE ROAD AHEAD

There is no reason now for the congressman to look to position himself in the center and for the general election, but attacks on Udall over layoffs at Los Alamos Labs from Pearce and the state GOP on his announcement day gave us a peek at the fall campaign. Tearing down Udall will be a full-time job for the GOP nominee as Udall's negatives are low and his style is eerily similar to other notable winners in New Mexico's post-WWII history. His low-key affability brings to mind Senator Bingaman, former ABQ Mayor Harry Kinney, GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan and others of a laconic bent who didn't shout about themselves, but steadily went about their business.

Another danger for the R's was signaled when Udall laid claim to being able to reach across the aisle and work with the opposite party, often a political platitude, but in Udall's case believable because of his track record. That message is also deep in our state's political DNA. Ticket splitting is a time honored tradition here. With an electorate dead tired of the gridlock gripping the national capital, a personality that tilts toward consensus building could be a powerful plus for Tom Udall whose career aspirations were met in the House of Representatives, but whose final political destiny is being shaped by the turbulent times in which he lives.

ON THE SCENE

ABQ State Senator Dede Feldman was all smiles at the Udall event. Also seen glad-handing was Dem State Rep. Al Park. Sitting prominently behind Udall was Park's law partner and ABQ City Councilor Michael Cadigan who has frequently clashed with Mayor Chavez. Both Park and Cadigan are possible 2009 ABQ Mayoral candidates. And how about "Mayor" Richard Romero. Well, he would like to be ABQ's next His Honor. The former ABQ State Senator clapped heartily as Udall announced. There was a real live Mayor on hand, or at least a former one. Bob Rosebrough, the attorney who was Gallup Mayor, was among those joining Udall on stage.

Conroy Chino, former NM labor department chief and Acoma Pueblo heavy was seen cheering, as was at least one staffer for Light Guv Diane Denish. Terry Brunner of Senator Bingaman's staff was there as was Bernalilo County Commissioner and possible '09 mayoral hopeful Alan Armijo.

Santa Fe New Mexican political reporter Steve Terrell drove down, even though these announcements no longer feature free food, free booze or women who like to "have coffee" afterwards. But you have your memories, Steve...

MEDIA MOVES

Udall won eight minutes of live coverage on the KOB-TV noon news. The station also streamed the entire speech on its Web site. Early evening news broadcasts on the three network affiliates gave the announcement heavy coverage on what was a pretty slow news day. The advance work appeared to be done right, with the room not too big for the crowd on hand and the TV shots of Udall conveying a sense of excitement, if not gravitas. Mainly, the announcement did not lay any eggs which is the main goal when you are protecting a lead.

JOLTIN' JOE

Pictured here is ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro who a couple of hours after Udall announced for the Senate, made official his run for the GOP nomination for the ABQ Congressional seat. He will face Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. Joe became famous for his ABQ pizza place. The pie he is eyeing here seems to meet with his approval. Both Carraro and White are natives of the New York City area which ought to be entertaining, if Joe can get Darren to come out and play.

Mark Bralley snapped today's photos. I'm Joe Monahan, coming to you from Albuquerque, NM.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Let's start with some comic relief today and this blooper reel of Big Bill that has been making the rounds at You Tube. They put the needle in, but he comes out of it better than you might expect.
As for the campaign, it's all on Iowa now. If he finishes fourth the Guv is gone. His latest Real Clear Politics polling average is 9.8%, in fourth place and trailing John Edwards who is in third with 22.2%. That's a long climb and still a long shot for the Guv, but there is time. Iowa votes January 3.

MAKING IT OFFICIAL

One thing the Guv hasn't had much to fret about lately is speculation over his coming back to NM and running for the US Senate seat. That talk quieted when Rep. Tom Udall got in the race. It will quiet some more today when Udall makes his candidacy official with a noontime announcement at the ABQ National Hispanic Cultural Center. The location sends a message to Udall foe Marty Chavez that the northern NM congressman will vigorously contest him for the key Hispanic constituency. More on Udall's entry tomorrow. Meanwhile, here is his announcement news release, his note to supporters and his campaign schedule featuring a nine city tour.

The Udall entry today is good timing for Bill, as a prankster this week sent around petitions seeking signatures for a Big Bill Senate run. His campaign manager, Dave Contarino, says the Guv had nothing to do with it. As we have blogged repeatedly, Senate speculation over Richardson does not die until 5 p.m. February 12, the filing day for the federal races.

EXCLUSIVE LOS ALAMOS POLL

The political hot potato thus far of Senate campaign '08 has been the layoffs of up to 750 employees at Los Alamos National Laboratories. We've heard the politicos toss this one around, especially Dems Chavez and Udall. But how do Democrats they are working to win over in the northern congressional district feel about the layoffs? We have some clues thanks to an automatic phone poll that contacted 183 Democrats Monday and asked them. The survey was conducted by ABQ-based Positive Contacts Consulting and here's their poll report.

"Congress has decided to eliminate several programs at the labs. This decision will result in the loss of 500 to 700 jobs. How do you view this decision on a scale of 1 to 5? 1 being no support for this decision, 5 being strong support for this decision, and 3 being undecided."

183 people responded to the poll, the results:

1 - 77 42.1%
2 - 11 6%
3 - 52 28%
4 - 5 2.7%
5 - 38 20.1%

The margin of error is fairly high due the small sample size, but I think it reconfirms what common sense is telling us right now: Job cuts are never popular, but these may have been inevitable and overdue, so a lot of people are still ambivalent, if not outright supportive. With so many undecided though, there is still room to make plays, and so much time to
do so.

Thanks, fellas. And definitely keep us posted. By the way, the New Mexican scorched Mayor Marty for his hits on Udall's role in the lab layoffs. It's getting rough early, isn't it?

STEVE PEARCE CALLING...AGAIN

If you're a registered NM Republican, there is a good chance you received a phone call from Steve Pearce Wednesday night. Insiders say the southern GOP Congressman, seeking the GOP nod for the open US Senate seat, conducted his second telephone town hall meeting since jumping into the race in October. Pearce opened the lines and talked with callers on a wide range of issues, including Los Alamos and Sandia Labs, immigration and taxes. In his first Townhall, he tackled the SCHIP health program for children and his controversial vote against it. He called 130,000 R's for the first one. We're told about 60,000 R's were rung up last night and invited to stay on the line for the two hour town hall.

Pearce may have been trying to steal a bit of thunder from ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson, his Senate primary foe, who is in the middle of a statewide listening tour and getting press notices in rural New Mexico.

JUST JOE, NO JANICE

ABQ GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones has set a fund-raiser for December 4 at Paisano's restaurant for her re-election bid to the state House, not for the GOP nod for the ABQ congressional seat. Arnold-Jones has toyed with the idea of running against Darren White for the US House, but the fund-raiser signals she is very unlikely to do it. Any money raised for a state race could not be transferred to a federal campaign. Also, ABQ State Sen. Joe Carraro will formally announce his bid for the ABQ seat today, giving R's opposed to White a candidate to rally around.

THE BOTTOM LINES

New Mexico's two US Senators have much seniority in the US Senate, but not the most, as we initially blogged Wednesday. Josh Kurtz, news chief at the Capitol Hill must-read newspaper, Roll Call, e-mails that at least a couple of other states outrank ours in the Senate seniority department. "I offer West Virginia (Byrd '58 and Jay Rockefeller '84) and Massachusetts (Teddy Kennedy '62 and John Kerry '84) as examples...Great stuff as always and what a great cycle for New Mexico!"

Thanks for keeping us honest, Josh. And, yes, the next year is going to be the political ride of a lifetime. Somebody call Bruce King, I need a new saddle.

This is the home of the exclusives and the home of New Mexico politics. Email your stuff and keep us posted.

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Get out the rocker, Steve Pearce. That's what his opponent for the GOP US Senate nomination apparently thinks he needs to do. ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson took her first public jab at Pearce at a Roswell appearance this week, saying the age of the 60 year old southern NM congressman is an issue.

Referring to her competitor, fellow U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce as a friend, Wilson said her colleague will be as old as Domenici when he finally achieves seniority. "New Mexico needs to think of the future," Wilson said later in an interview. (Roswell Record.)

Senator Domenici is now 75. After two six year Senate terms Pearce would be 73; Heather, now 46, would be 59.

Building seniority is an issue that may resonate, even if the way Heather is framing it for Pearce may not. It sure doesn't make Pete sound very spright. Senator Domenici and Senator Bingaman rank high in seniority among the 50 state delegations in the US Senate (Pete elected in '72; Bingaman in '82). It has brought us millions in funding. How to continue the federal gravy train (or diversify away from it) will be a key issue for many voters impacted by such funding. (Think the national labs and military bases.) But we are going to have to face this prospect with an all freshmen House delegation and a freshman US Senator. Looking 12 years ahead is not something voters will be especially focused on. Casting Pearce as plain old may also be at play here for Heather.

If 60 is the new 50, Pearce could easily do a 20 year Senate run. 46 year old Heather drives Dems berserk by indicating she would be good for a 30 year stint. But the Dems won't focus on Steve's rocker or Heather's cradle. They will point out that the R nominee, whoever it is, is in the party that is currently out of power in the Senate, and that electing another Democrat would serve the state best, no matter their age.

JOE'S WORLD

ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro is not pleased with us. He says we are costing him money. How? By questioning how committed he is to seeking the GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat. We reported scepticism Tuesday that Carraro would give up his state Senate seat to make the run, but he checked in to say emphatically that, "I am running for the Congress. I am not running or the state Senate. Period." Speculation to the contrary could keep campaign funds from flowing to the Westside Senator who faces an uphill battle to take the 1st CD nomination away from early front runner and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. I pressed Carraro as hard as I would pizza dough, and he insisted he would not backtrack and run for the Senate if his congressional bid fizzled.

The voluble Carraro, in the Senate since '92, says he is ready to leave the Legislature because of the pressing nature of the issues on the federal level--the Iraq War and immigration being two of them.

ABQ GOP State Rep. Tom Anderson would like to succeed Carraro in the Senate. He said this week he is uncertain about Carraro's plans and would collect petition signatures for both his House seat and the Carraro Senate seat. I asked Carraro about that. "I am not Tom's mother," he replied. He did praise the performance of the lawmaker.

Carraro can be expected to give White some headaches and perhaps make him spend more money for the primary than he planned. Carraro will try to galvanize disaffected Republicans, many who supported Earl Greer's unsuccessful candidacy to remove Allen Weh as GOP chairman this year. Carraro was unable to turn party discontent into a primary win in 2006 when he was defeated for the GOP US Senate nomination by Farmington's Allen McCulloch. He says Sheriff White "ought to run for the Legislature" to get some experience before running for the Congress.

A key test for Carraro will be garnering 20% of the vote at the March preprimary convention so he can win a place on the June primary ballot. If he doesn't, it will be a short-lived symbolic candidacy. If he makes it, it could turn into something that would likely not endanger White's chances for the nomination, but could hurt him in the general election against the Democratic nominee. Stay tuned.

DEM DIRTY TRICKS?

Top D's inform that it appears many members of the Democratic Party State Central Committee received a mysterious envelope over the weekend containing a form to gather petition signatures for a US Senate run for Governor Richardson. What was the point? Was it meant to dissuade Rep. Tom Udall from getting in the race? Or Marty Chavez from staying in? It left them scratching their heads. "It looked really amateurish and was obvious it did not come from the Richardson campaign," said one who received it.

UDALL ANNOUNCEMENT

Udall will come into the race with a formal announcement on Thursday at 11:45 a.m. at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in ABQ. Chavez is pinning his hopes on Hispanic votes. Udall's decision to announce at the cultural center is his own play for the key Dem constituency.

NATIONAL INTEREST

The wide open race for the NM US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici continues to attract the interest of the national media. Tuesday we interviewed with National Public Radio's "Day by Day" broadcast which is posted here.

Even without the three open US House seats and the Senate slot, New Mexico would be in the limelight as Big Bill continues to hang in there in the Dem Presidential race. Here's his latest TV ad focused on education.

In Santa Fe, the talk is how many top-ranking administration officials will travel to Iowa the day after Christmas to help in the Governor's campaign. We hear it will be more than a few.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The legal beagles were barking at us yesterday for our description of the sexual harassment case involving GOP NM Public Regulation Commissioner David King. Here's one of them:

"In civil law, we don't use the word "guilty." That's a criminal word. The jury "found" that he sexually harassed. It was not a $800K "settlement." It was an $800k award. " Settlement is what is agreed on by the parties prior to a judgment or verdict. Also, he wasn't "charged" earlier. "Accusations" would work or "claims." Another of the beagles put it succinctly: "You can't be found guilty of sexual harassment, because it's not a crime. You can be found liable for damages in a civil case, which is what happened."

Thanks for the corrections, Legal Beagles, but please don't send us a bill. We do know what pro bono means.

This is the home of the exclusives and the home of New Mexico politics. Have news? Comments? Political gossip? Email us

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Secretary Shendo
It may be a 2008 long shot for New Mexico to send its first Native American to the US House of Representatives, but the sizeable Indian community in the northern Congressional district is a key constituency and Benny Shendo, Big Bill's Secretary of Indian Affairs will form a committee to weigh a run for the Dem nod for the House seat being vacated by Rep. Tom Udall who is Secretary of Indian Affairs, is making a move that will keep them in the thick of things. Shendo has told friends he will form an exploratoryrunning for the open US Senate seat.

Native Americans comprise about 19% of the population of the Third CD. Only a northern Arizona district has more. Hispanics makes up 36% of the district. Shendo, a native of Jemez Pueblo, would be joining a crowded field of wannabe's in the overwhelmingly Democratic district Many of the potential candidates will be gone before the mid-March preprimary convention, unable to raise money or attract delegate support, or having cut deals fopr their support with the dominant candidates. If a Shendo candidacy falls short, he could still be a deal maker and help push Native American support to one of the top contenders, and in the process keep their issues on the front burner,

For now, the Shendo name toss reminds New Mexicans that our "majority-minority" state has no Hispanic or Native American in its Congressional delegation, an issue that will especially overhang positioning for the Udall House seat.

HEDGING YOUR BETS

We have to hedge on the planned announcement Thursday of ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro for the ABQ US House seat. While saying he is going to run against Bernalillo County Sheriff Daren White for the GOP nomination, Joe so far refuses to say whether he will give up his Senate seat to do so. Carraro could stay in the race all the way to the mid-March preprimary and then decide to drop out and file petition signatures three days later to run for his Senate seat. How will Carraro raise serious money if he is not willing to tell donors he is all in for the United States Congress? Well, he won't.

GOP State Rep. Tom Anderson who would love to run for Carraro's seat isn't taking the bait. He says he does not want to fall into a trap by giving up his House seat only to see Carraro drop his congressional bid and come back to the Senate race. Anderson is staying put. And unless Carraro or someone else goes all in, so is the GOP race for the 1st CD. Another sidebar on this: Will GOP Senator Domenici hold a "Meet and Greet" lunch for Carraro like the one he is holding for Darren in D.C. December 5th?

WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?

We told you last week about the "millionaires' amendment." That's the federal election law that kicks in when a rich candidate for Congress spends over a certain amount, permitting their opponents to collect increased individual contributions. Like everything in campaign finance law this one is maddeningly complex, but with the help of readers and the Federal Election Commission (FEC) site, we have put together more detail on how this amendment could play out in New Mexico as we fill three open US House seats and an open Senate seat.

According to the FEC, oil wealthy GOP Senate candidate Steve Pearce could spend up to $415,680 of his own money in the primary and the same amount again in the general election before the amendment kicked in. If he goes over that amount his primary opponent--GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson--would be able to collect individual contributions triple the normal limit of $2300. If Pearce spent even more of his personal money, the amount Wilson could collect from individual donors would continue to rise. It is unlikely that Pearce will have to spend over $415,000 of his own money in the primary. The general election is another story.

As for our US House seats, the wealthy guys include Hobbs oil man Harry Teague and Las Cruces attorney Joe Cervantes. Both are seeking the Dem nod for the southern congressional seat. Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott is the wealthy candidate seeking the Dem nomination in the northern congressional district. According to the millionaires' amendment, a House hopeful can put up $350,000 0f his own money without triggering the higher donation limit for his opponents. So far, Wiviott has come closest to breaking the barrier, donating $325,000 to his own campaign. If he goes over, his House foes could start collecting $6900 in individual donations. Teague has given himself $200,000. Cervantes has not said how much of his family's agricultural based wealth, if any, will be used for in his campaign.

The catch, of course, is the ability of the rich candidates' foes to get their donors to give all that extra money. There is also another provision in the law worth noting. It says, "The national and State party committees may make unlimited coordinated expenditures on behalf of the candidate" when the millionaires' amendment kicks in. That would be more applicable in a general election than in a contested primary where parties traditionally stay on the sidelines.

The millionaires' amendment could slow down our well-to-do contenders, but in the end would not hold them back from writing a huge check if that's what they felt it would take to put them over the top. The law is not that punitive. Also, a rich candidate can always wait until the final weeks to spend his money, giving his opponent less time in which to solicit the bigger donations to make up the difference.

THE BOTTOM LINES

David King, 61, has been a mainstay on the state political scene and by all accounts a bright guy, but he has a problem and some of his supporters are saying he needs to get help or get out of public life. The GOP Public Regulation Commissioner was found to have sexually harassed a woman at the PRC and $800,000 was awarded to her. King faced similar circumstances in the early 90's while State Treasurer and the state spent $305,000 to settle three sexual-harassment claims against him. In the latest case, taxpayers are on the hook for $140,000 of the $800,000. Is it time for King to come clean, or clean out?...

Some Sandia Labs employees will be joining their brethern from Los Alamos Labs in cleaning out their desks this holiday season, but the Grinch will not be as big a presence at the ABQ nuclear facility as he will be at LANL. Officials say 40 to 80 Sandia workers will be out because of federal budget cuts, while 500 to 750 at Los Alamos will get layoff coal in their stockings....Las Cruces area State Senator Mary Kay Papen is not ready for a layoff. The Democratic lawmaker says: " It probably will not get me any brownie points but I am 75, feel 50 and am in perfect health.." Papen says she will seek a third four year term next year.

Email your news and comments and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Darren White
It's Pete's first public play of Campaign '08. Since announcing he would retire from the US Senate after an unprecedented six terms, GOP Senator Pete Domenici has been working the political angles from behind the scenes. Now he is going public. He is signaling his support, if not outright endorsement, of Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, the likely GOP nominee for the ABQ congressional seat. An invitation making the rounds says:

"Please join the Honorable Pete Domenici For a Meet and Greet lunch to honor Darren White, Republican Candidate, NM -1 Wednesday, December 5, 2007 at The Capitol Hill Club."

White has no announced foes for the GOP nomination and Domenici's embrace of the Sheriff is not going to encourage any. White has been taken under the Senator's political wing in recent years. He was at Domenici's side at the airport when they welcomed President Bush for a Los Ranchos fund-raiser this summer. The Sheriff also attended Domenici's October retirement news conference and in 2004 served as the Bush Bernalillo County Coordinator.

In 1998 Domenici rocked the GOP when he endorsed Heather Wilson for the then open ABQ House seat, even though she had several primary challengers. This time it appears Pete and Company would like to clear the field of any potential rivals to White, sparing the Sheriff and Domenici intraparty turmoil similar to that set off by Pete's '98 intervention.

WHO LOST LOS ALAMOS?

The first political football of the '08 campaign is high in the air and hurtling high above the field, but it remains murky who, if anyone, is going to put points on the board. Democratic US Senate candidate Marty Chavez, down in the polls, and needing something to kick-start his campaign, is seizing on the loss of 500 to 750 jobs at Los Alamos Labs. He will travel to Los Alamos today to commiserate with employees and no doubt take some more swipes at northern NM Congressman and his US Senate rival, Tom Udall. Here's an early sample:

"Tom Udall now has the dubious distinction of being the only member of Congress from New Mexico in history to vote in favor of decreased funding and cutting jobs at LANL and Sandia... Udall said his vote in favor of the cutbacks was to send the labs a message. Throwing people out of work and endangering our national security is not 'the message' New Mexicans want to hear...," blasted Marty's campaign.

But this is not an easy score for Chavez. A large swath of Democratic primary voters are not especially wedded to the labs or their nuclear weapons mission. They support Udall's "message" that the labs need to diversity their mission, Also, Chavez finds himself inadvertently teamed up with the state GOP on this one. They also unleashed their fury, trying to set up Udall as the answer to the question "Who Lost Alamos?"

"If he supported the national security mission of LANL, he wouldn’t have sat quiet in his seat on the Appropriations Committee...National security is not a high priority of the far-left’s political agenda..."

Udall's camp came with this:

"The budget cuts at the lab, if they occur, are part of a larger issue involving our nation's nuclear footprint. Tom Udall's vote did not affect those larger issues."

THE GAME AHEAD

The R's are betting Udall is the likely Dem US Senate nominee and think they have a good issue in the labs. Their strategists see it playing against the congressman in parts of the state heavily dependent on federal funding. White Sands comes immediately to mind. They will try to tie the Los Alamos downsizing to what they believe is Udall's lackluster legislative record and make "who can deliver" for the state a major campaign theme.

While trying to make headway in the primary, Chavez needs to make sure he does not appear to be doing blocking for the R's and further alienate Dems. Udall will have to do his best to localize the issue to Los Alamos. It's easy to see how the first political football of the season could also be its first fumble.

SUNDAY IN NEW YORK

The historic happenings in our corner of the world are reverberating nationally as politics watchers coast-to-coast are drawn to the drama here. The Sunday New York Times spoke with us and others about the mad scramble. In the piece, Mayor Chavez claims NY Senator Schumer, head of Dem Senate campaign committee and Senate Majority Leader Reid think of Tom Udall as "their fair-haired boy." Careful, Marty. You're skating on dangerous ice with that one.

ESPINOSA'S EXPO
Judy Espinosa
Big Bill announced some major personnel changes over the Thanksgiving holiday. One of the more significant was the appointment of Judy Espinosa, chief of staff to Light Guv Diane Denish, as the new director of Expo New Mexico. Espinosa will replace Fred Peralta who is retiring. Does her appointment give Di a toehold into the patronage goodies of NM's Biggest Show? Unless the duo has grown apart, it surely does.

Espinosa is a former cabinet secretary in the Anaya and King administrations and one of Di's links to Democratic Hispanic women. She served 15 months as her staff chief. Her style is not laid back, so it will be of interest to watch how she tackles the new assignment.

BILL AND DI

If Lady Di were to ascend to the Guv's chair by appointment, she would have some ready made allies, like Espinosa, but some observers say odds of an appointment have actually gone down. If Big Bill sticks to his apparent decision not to seek the US Senate seat and his Prez campaign falters, he will be entirely dependent on the Dem nominee and their winning the White House if he is to get a national post and leave the Guv's chair early. Even if a Dem wins, it wouldn't guarantee him a job. If he doesn't get one, he will be with us for the duration--until the end of 201o. That is a different dynamic than many are factoring in right now, but one not to be ignored.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From the Governor's office, news of the newest member of the NM House of Representatives:

Governor Richardson appointed Rodolpho “Rudy” Martinez to the House District 39 seat. Martinez replaces former Representative Manuel Herrera who passed away in October following a long battle with cancer.

“ I am confident that he will serve Grant and Hidalgo counties well,” said Governor Richardson. “His legislative experience will be a valuable asset to the House...”

Martinez is mayor of Bayard, NM and Grant County Commission Chairman.

Keep us in the loop. E-mail your latest news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Two of the congressional candidates who have healthy personal bank accounts are trumpeting their money totals. That could have a major impact on one of the races, but probably not as much on the other. Down south, restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley, 55, seeking the GOP nomination for the 2nd CD seat, says he has raised $221,000 since getting into the race earlier this month. He also says he is prepared to put a couple of hundred thousand of his own funds into the primary campaign.

Tinsley has a ranch in Capitan in Lincoln County and a second home in Santa Fe. He came in second in the GOP 2002 primary when the seat was last open. Steve Pearce won that primary and the general election. He is now leaving the House to seek a Senate seat.

Tinsley's first run is a six man field didn't do much for his name ID, according to insider polling, and he could be vulnerable to a well-financed primary challenge. A line of attack against Tinsley could sound familiar. His potential foes question how much time he spends in that Santa Fe home and out of the 2nd district. Tinsley ran into trouble in '02 when it was pointed out that he had a home on Rio Grande Blvd in ABQ. He says he spends most of his time at the ranch.

Because no other well-known or well-financed rivals have emerged, Tinsley is the default front-runner for the GOP nod. The window is still open for other hopefuls, but Tinsley hopes to give them second thoughts by showing some early money muscle. So far, it appears to be working.

HEADING NORTH

In the northern congressional district, it appears Santa Fe's Don Wiviott has taken $75,000 off the table as he switches from running for the Democratic nod for US senate to the Dem race for the 3rd congressional district. Tom Udall is giving up the seat to run for US Senate. Wiviott had put up $400,000 for the Senate bid. He now says he will personally commit $325,000 to his US House run. That's still a ton of money, but unlike Tinsley's race Wiviott faces well-known and stiff competition and his money will not get them to rethink the run. The key question is whether it will help Wiviott garner 20% of the March pre-primary Democratic convention vote that he needs to win a spot on the June ballot.

If Wiviott is the sole Anglo liberal in the heavily Hispanic and Native American district, he could have a shot at making it, but he has a lot of work to do to persuade party insiders. Money will help get their attention and return his phone calls, but money will be no substitute for building the important personal relationships with potential convention delegates.

The early front-runner in Northern contest is Ben Ray Lujan, Public Regulation Commissioner and the son of the NM House Speaker. Will Ben Ray's longtime friend, former Santa Fe County commissioner Javier Gonzales, emerge as his toughest foe? Gonzales has hired the polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rossner--also used by Big Bill--to help guide him. Lujan is already making phone calls to party insiders, lining up support for the pre-primary. Gonzales has no district wide name ID and faces the prospect of running a negative campaign against Ben Ray, a touchy subject in the La Familia atmosphere of the Spanish North.

THE PEARCE MILLIONS

We blogged Monday that GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce has an ace in the hole when it comes to his contest for the R's US Senate nomination--his personal fortune. Like any candidate, Pearce hopes he doesn't have to tape his own money, but if he does, several readers pointed out that a new federal rule would give Heather a bit of protection, We dug this up from a Utah news report on the "millionaire exemption." It kicks in if a candidate like Pearce comes with big personal dollars

Under a complicated FEC rule, after any candidate gives his own campaign more than $350,000 in a defined "election cycle," that triggers special FEC reporting requirements and, experts say, can also allow his competitors to take individual donations of up to $6,300.

As we said, that's a bit of protection for challengers of wealthy candidates, but not much. What if the millionaire comes with a huge TV buy a couple of weeks before the election and triggers the exemption? That wouldn't give his foe much time to start collecting donations above the normally allowed amount.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Peter St. Cyr of KKOB-AM radio checks in with the news that Mayor Marty has donated $5,000 to the Bernalillo County Democratic Party from the funds he collected for a possible Guv race. Chavez raised well over $150,000 while preparing a 2010 Dem Guv run, but that money can't be transferred to his federal US Senate campaign...Big Bill takes a Thanksgiving break until Saturday when he returns to the campaign trail in Iowa. The latest CNN poll in New Hampshire shows him in a near tie for third with John Edwards. Hillary leads there with 36%....

Happy Thanksgiving to you. We're thankful for your interest in what we do around here. Your emailed news and comments are always welcome.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Don't turn off the lights yet, but the party is over. Definitely over. Just six weeks after Senator Pete Domenici, patron saint of Los Alamos Labs, announced his retirement, he had the unpleasant task of announcing that 500 to 750 highly paid lab employees will be out the door by the end of January. And that could be just the beginning. The wrangling over the federal budget continues in Washington. In a worst case scenario, the pre-emptive layoffs announced Monday may not be enough and another round of pink slips could be coming.

Welcome to the post-Pete era. It was Senator Domenici who almost singlehandedly protected the nuclear weapons facility on "The Hill" from the budget knives of fellow lawmakers. As a result, employment at the labs, including contractors, soared to over 12,000. Los Alamos county has the most millionaires per capita than any place in America, with top scientists pulling down salaries that were rarefied in this relatively poor southwestern state.

But the Cold War ended in 1989 and still the money flowed. Cuts that could have been taken were delayed. Now the proverbial chickens have come home to roost. The Democrats are in charge of Congress, the Labs security reputation is in shambles and a future in which there are fewer nuclear weapons to keep an eye on can no longer be denied.

Longtime observers think this could be just the beginning. It was not unusual to hear them talk Monday of a Los Alamos with half the number of current employees by 2012. Talk of switching the labs mission has been just talk. Certainly if it ever happens it will be too late for the 500 to 700 workers who will lose their jobs by the end of January. And it looks very doubtful any switch in mission will ever put the Labs back to peak employment levels. As we said, the party is over.

POLITICAL IMPACT

Domenici could be faulted for continuing to prop up the lab budget when it was clear that it was time to slowly downsize. But bringing home the pork is much more rewarding than cutting off the supply. Domenici leaves the scene in a year. History is now his sole judge. Northern Congressman Tom Udall, never a cheerleader for the nuclear weapons mission at Los Alamos and who voted for the House budget cutting the facility, could take hits for not doing more to prevent the layoffs, but because they come against a backdrop of historical inevitably, the political pain could be minimized. The same for Dem Senator Bingaman, but he will be under increased pressure to prevent the Los Alamos infection from spreading to Sandia Labs, located in the state's population center and not as controversial as Los Alamos.

Udall and the rest of our Congressional delegation now need to go about the work of slowing the economic impact of the Los Alamos debacle. The Santa Fe real estate market and big ticket retailers, like auto dealers, are going to feel the pinch most. The workers themselves, many of them well-off after years of harvesting big salaries and who will be pocketing plump severance packages, will not be as impacted as would working class employees. But future rounds of layoffs will be more hurtful, impacting younger workers who don't want to take buyout packages.

The Democratic Congress has been insistent that Los Alamos change its mission to save itself; that it transform its swords into plowshares. Rep. Udall has been in the forefront of that argument. But the fervor to downsize is not going away and there is no new mission anywhere on the horizon. A new century is being born. The fabled Labs of Los Alamos which cast such a long shadow over the 20th century will be a mere shadow of itself in the 21st. The sooner the politicians accept that reality and relay it to those whose economic lives are on the line, the sooner they and our state can get to work restructuring the economy of the area.

PRIMARY POLLING

The height of the mountain ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez has to climb to catch Tom Udall in the race for the NM Dem nomination for US Senate may not be as high as the Sandia's, but it's a steep journey. According to the SurveyUSA poll released by KOB-TV Monday, Udall garners 62% of the Democratic primary vote to Chavez's 32%. Hispanic Dems, Chavez's hope to close the gap, are evenly split between Tom and Marty. Among Anglo Democrats, Udall checks in with a huge 54 point advantage as we begin the long march toward the June '08 primary.

In the Republican US Senate race, ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson debuts in the SurveyUSA with a healthy lead over southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce--56% to 37%. She leads across the board--among men, women, Hispanics, Anglos and even the conservatives that Pearce is counting on. But there is a big caveat. Much of the Heather's advantage could be simple name ID. Pearce is not as well-known around the state, especially in the big metro area, and Heather's lead should shrink as that changes in the weeks ahead. Still, she has bragging rights in the early going and that is going to help her fend off talk that Pearce is a likely nominee. It could also help her raise some campaign money.

The general election match-ups in the poll have not changed much from earlier ones. Udall handily beats either Wilson or Pearce, while Chavez lags one point behind Heather and gets beat by Pearce by 10 points.

Chavez will have to start moving his numbers, but his first challenge will be to convince major donors to pony up cash to start the early media he needs. Udall would be wise to get his formal announcement done next week and not engage Chavez for the rest of the year.

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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It's not as bad as playing poker with Bill Gates, but Heather Wilson is at a clear disadvantage when it comes to the money chase in her contest for the GOP US Senate nomination with fellow US House member Steve Pearce. It's not because his fund-raising prowess necessarily surpasses her; it is his personal fortune accumulated in the oil field services business in Lea County and one we presume he is willing to tap into if money becomes an impediment to success.

After reviewing Pearce's financial disclosure records and discussing the matter with various Alligators, we estimate conservatively that Pearce has liquid assets of probably at least $10 million. This is a significant advantage over Wilson who is far from being a pauper but who along with husband Jay Hone has a decidedly more modest portfolio than Pearce with much of their investments in ABQ area rental properties and retirement savings accounts.

Wilson says she raised $110,000 Thursday night at a Capitol Hill fund-raiser featuring Vice President Cheney. She should be approaching the million dollar level in her campaign coffers as she already had over $800,000 in her account giong into the Cheney event. But consider this. Pearce sold his Lea County oil field services business--Lea Fishing Tools--in 2003 to Key Energy in exchange for 542,477 shares of that company's stock. Assuming Pearce hasn't sold any and using Friday's closing price. That asset alone would now be worth $7.513 million.

It doesn't stop there. The 60 year old and his wife Cynthia list at least $1 million in stock in privately held Lea County Bancshares. Other assets get us to our $10 million estimate and more.

A Senate primary where you are going after the attention of perhaps 100,000 voters should not cost millions and probably won't, but Pearce's personal wealth is a hole card he can call on if Heather is able to raise the betting.

CHENEY ENVY

Wilson's $110,000 from the Cheney reception was not an overwhelming number, but this is a US Senate primary and many R's and their allies who would give would rather stay on the sidelines. If that's not the case, we should find out soon enough. One of my insiders reports Cheney's event for Pearce has now been set for January 23 in D.C.

DIALING WITH DOMENICI

Our southern sources say the name of GOP Senator Pete Domenici has been subtly entered into the Pearce-Wilson contest. "Heather has called prominent Republicans asking hem to join her campaign saying, 'Senator Domenici and his staff recommended that I call you.' Reports an in-the-know R.

Domenici, whose retirement announcement set off the epic political events we are in the middle of, has not endorsed Wilson, and she doesn't say he does in her phone calls, but what's that that say about first impressions?

THE R'S AND WHITE
McCleskey
The Republican who would replace Wilson in her ABQ congressional seat, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, is heading to conservative Chaves County to raise money. He will attend a $100 a person fund-raiser November 30 hosted by Pat Greenwade and Jess and Sherry Eckel. As we told you last week, insiders say White has hit the $100,000 mark in his fund-raising. We won't know for sure until formal reports are filed in January. But much is going to be expected because national R's have been working furiously to clear the field of any primary opposition for White.

Among those in White's corner is the wing of the GOP that ousted Ramsay Gorham as state chair in 2004. They include Jay McCleskey, a regional operative for the national R's whose wife, Nicole McCleskey, is a White pollster. Also aboard are lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett and attorney Pat Rogers who with Domenici and Wilson also played a key role in the ouster of GOP US Attorney David Iglesias. Former Domenici operatives Sara Lister and Heidi Fuller are also working with the Sheriff.

ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro, among others, has talked of a primary challenge against White, in part, because they want to see a change in the direction of the state party. If Pearce succeeds Domenici as the titular head of the GOP, major changes are anticipated in the lineup of personalities and consultants who have dominated GOP politics here. If it is Heather Wilson or Darren White, current operatives are seen holding on. There are potentially lucrative contracts and associations at stake. If the Dems pull off the minor miracle of a congressional delegation sweep, the GOP would have no evident leadership in the immediate aftermath. Think of the angles on that.

The post-Bush, post-Domenici era will offer the state GOP an opportunity to build a bigger tent or descend into further recrimination. The individual character of the eventual leader will largely determine the outcome.

NATIONAL DIAGNOSIS

The conventional wisdom in the national press on the Udall-Chavez square-off isn't much different from here in the state--Udall is favored. The WaPo's political blogger puts it this way:

Democrats should be thrilled. Polling released by Udall's campaign showed him over 50 percent against both Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce and with a 20-point margin over Chavez in a hypothetical Democratic primary. Chavez is angry about being passed over by national Democrats and could make things uncomfortable for Udall. But it's hard to see Chavez raising the money to really make Udall nervous in a primary, and it's clear that the national party establishment is firmly behind the congressman.

We would add that Chavez should not need as much money as Udall if he benefits from ethnic voting. He also has a better opportunity at getting "free media" from his perch as ABQ mayor. The TV stations here cover about 85% of the state.

THE BOTTOM LINES

This Mayor Marty broadside delivered against Congressman Tom last week in the Politico-- “You take a tough-charging mayor against a congressman who is not known for having done anything"--are fighting' words. Some e-mail reaction:

"Wasn't Udall voting against the war doing something courageous? According to about 65% of New Mexicans and a greater number of Democratic voters, this is as important as any other credential in this federal race." wrote one well-known Dem...

Get this. Leland Lehrman, the Taos publisher, who is also seeking the Dem US Senate nod, doesn't think Udall is liberal enough:

Udall's recent vote to table Dennis Kucinich's resolution (HR 799) to impeach Vice-President Cheney is a prime example of why he would not make a good Senator for New Mexico. Although his votes on the environment and civil liberties make us all proud, his Washingtonian willingness to avoid tough issues means that he cannot be trusted with the leadership role a US Senator must take.

Hearing from anyone that he is not liberal enough must be music to Udall's ears. If he gets the nomination next June, the R's are going to try to make him look like Leland's twin brother.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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The somewhat obscure race for President of the ABQ City Council could have an impact on the race for the Democratic nomination for US Senate, so we note that our City Hall insiders say Dem City Councilor Ken Sanchez's effort to win Republican councilors to his side and take over the presidency of the nine member council from Democrat Debbie O'Malley remains in motion, but he has yet to nail down the votes.

"If you put a gun to my head and made me pick, I would say (Councilor Debbie) O'Malley gets it again, but that could change," said one of our veteran City Hall watchers.

Sanchez, who has 2009 mayoral ambitions, is a key ally of Chavez which is a problem for him because he would like to have the support of GOP City Councilor Brad Winter who is an ardent foe of Chavez. Winter may be concerned that giving the high-profile presidency to Sanchez will help Chavez advance his Senate bid with a friendly assist from Councilor Sanchez.

Chavez, preparing for a primary face-off with US Rep. Tom Udall, would like nice headlines coming out of city government as he hits the campaign trail. Sanchez might be able to help. But liberal councilors are lined up behind O'Malley who is seeking a second one year term. They say the development community is pushing the Sanchez presidency.

Dont count out Winter. If there is a 4-4 deadlock he could emerge as the new Prez. It's a longshot that has happened before. Councilors pick their leader December 3.

HARMONY FOR NOW

In checking on the council prexy story, I ran into another one: The council and the Mayor, for a change, are getting along. "He's been really nice and easy to get along with since he announced his Senate candidacy. Contracts we support are getting approved and the atmosphere is greatly improved," one of the councilors told me in an off the blog record conversation.

Chavez, already the underdog in his race against Udall, doesn't need his previously poor relations becoming an issue outside of ABQ, and for the time being they aren't.

LOS ALAMOS HOPE?

Now that Tom Udall is running for Senate will the congressional leadership which supports his bid be more friendly toward the budget for Los Alamos and Sandia Labs? Udall has been embarrassed by the funding cuts making their way through the Dem Congress. Maybe his Senate run will give the leadership pause over those proposed cuts for a year? Maybe.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Perhaps we should have said backed away instead of "backed off" Thursday when we described the ABQ GOP congressional plans of State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. She tell us to leave the door open a crack for her as she is still looking into raising enough money to run. But we would not call it a likely event...The national Dems think Darren White will be the likely nominee for the seat. A Dem source reports an opposition researcher from back East has been in ABQ recently checking over Darren's record as sheriff...NM columnist Ned Cantwell is at again, using bloggers as a jumping off point for his latest missive on La Politica...

Email your news and comments, and top by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Speaker Lujan
Chances of a candidate free-for-all in the epic election year to come are capped, and it looks as though they are going to stay that way after listening to NM House Speaker Ben Lujan. I asked him if the 2008 Legislature should reinstate the law that allows candidates who are denied a spot at their party's March pre-primary conventions to instead win a place on the June primary ballot by gathering extra petition signatures from voters. He replied: "I don't believe we need to do that." And that appears to settle the matter. Such legislation is not going to go anywhere without Speaker Ben's blessing.

With a candidate needing a minimum of 20% of the delegate vote at the pre-primary to make the ballot, theoretically only five candidates could make it on for an individual office. And that's if they all received exactly 20%. More likely, three, maybe four at most, will qualify for the primaries for the federal offices including three open US House seats.

Some of the lesser-known candidates are not happy about possibly being denied the right to get on the ballot if their convention rejects them. The petition provision was dropped by the Legislature last year, with no explanation from the Secretary of State. Grumbling has been heard that a candidate denied by a party convention could go to court to try to overturn the law, but most experts see that as a long shot.

Speaker Lujan's son, Public Regulation Commission Chairman Ben Ray Lujan, is a leading candidate to replace northern NM US Rep. Tom Udall. The Speaker's anti-petition position will be seen as favorable towards his son's run, but it is supported by other top R and Dem leaders who say they want stronger political parties and the 20% requirement with no petition provision helps get them there.

Rep. Jose Campos told me he planned to introduce legislation to reinstate the petition option, but with the Speaker's position against it, that may be academic. Also, any such legislation would have to garner two-thirds support of the House and Senate in order to take effect before the March pre-primary conventions. That would be unlikely with even the Speaker's support.

Most newcomer and wanna-be candidates are going to fall by the wayside well before the mid-March confabs. A few will survive. For voters, the advantage is not having to wade through non-serious candidates on primary day. Others argue abolishing the petition option unnecessarily limits choice.

MORE SPEAKING SPEAKER

On another matter bugging state politicos, Speaker Lujan said he would support legislation that would ensure a party's pre-primary convention did not end in a stalemate. He spoke of the concern that a dozen candidates could file for the Dem nomination for the northern congressional seat at the pre-primary and none of them win the required 20%, leaving the party with no nominee.

"I think we can look at a run-off or other method to remedy that," said Lujan. He agreed that such an event would be extremely unlikely, but because the issue exists, it should be addressed. With Lujan's backing, we can count it done.

LUJAN THE YOUNGER
Ben Ray Lujan
Meanwhile, our Wednesday blog on Ben Ray Lujan's planned congressional run brought out the Alligators. They asked whether Ben Ray would pledge to not seek re-election to his PRC seat while making a run for the House seat.

Lujan, whose four year term expires at the end of 2008, said he would not resign the PRC to seek the congressional chair, but added: "I promise to run for only one office. That is the fair and right thing to do."

Conceivably, Ben Ray could file for the congressional seat without taking off the table the possibility of later seeking re-election to the PRC seat if his House bid went bad. With his statement he ended that possibility. And why not? He is not going to have any problem winning a spot on the June primary ballot at the pre-primary convention and will be a leading favorite to take the House nomination.

A trickier matter for the 35 year old could be campaign contributions. PRC commissioners are restricted by state law from taking money from utilities and other industries they regulate. So, will he accept contributions for his US House run from industries he regulates?

"I pledge to follow the law," he said several times in response to prodding.

Current law does not prohibit him from taking such contributions for a federal campaign, and Lujan's statement indicates he will. It will likely be a campaign issue. For example, a big rate case from PNM is pending before the PRC. If Ben Ray accepted money from the electric company for his Congress run, would it present a conflict of interest?

Lujan says his ethical conduct has been above reproach and will stay that way, but he is not going to rule out taking industry campaign money. He did say: "Campaign finance reforms are necessary for federal races."

So far the young Lujan stands to face Santa Fe's Javier Gonzales, Don Wiviott and Harry Montoya for the nomination. A Gonzales supporter calls Lujan's decision to take money from industry he regulates "disturbing." Will voters also? That's why we have campaigns.

LUVIN' CHENEY

They won't let her have it. As Heather Wilson prepares to host Veep Dick Cheney at a Capitol Hill fund-raiser tonight, her rival for the GOP US Senate nomination, Rep. Steve Pearce, lets word out through operatives that "the Vice-President will be attending a fundraiser for Rep. Pearce, though we still don't know when and where."

Heather, you may recall, announced shortly after getting in the race that Cheney was doing a $2300 a pop fund-raiser for her and left the impression that it was an endorsement. But the event had actually been sent up before she announced for the Senate and was originally meant for her US House campaign. Pearce's camp was quick to point out that the Veep was not slighting them. Meanwhile, all you Democrats are scratching your heads over how zealous Steve and Heather are to show a relationship with the unpopular Cheney. Let's just say it's a Republican thing.

WHITE IN COLOR

An insider checks in with the news that Bernalillo County Sheriff and GOP US House hopeful Darren White has hit the six figure mark in his fund-raising. "I can't tell you exactly how much, but it is six figures," said the insider.

That means at least $100,000 for two term sheriff Darren who is hoping he does not have to use it in a contested primary for the seat being vacated by Heather Wilson. So far, luck is with him as two possible foes, ABQ State Senator Mark Boitano and State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, have backed away from bids. Senator Carraro continues to toy with the notion, but is not in.

White has spent a few of his newly raised dollars on a Web site that went up this week. There's nothing there on the issues yet. Like Heather, Darren is going to try to position himself as an "independent" Republican in the majority Democratic district. His campaign slogan is "integrity and independence."

THE BOTTOM LINES

In case you missed it, ABQ's Eclipse Aviation is back in the news and it isn't pretty. There's no need to worry about that $19 million investment taxpayers have in that deal, plus millions in other incentives, is there? Perhaps the Legislative Finance Committee should be asking?...

E-mail your news and comments. This is the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Bradley
Former GOP NM Lt. Governor Walter Bradley isn't being shy about taking sides in the hotly contested US Senate primary between US Reps Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. His name is listed prominently as a member of the newly formed "Ag for Pearce" group. Ag is short for agriculture for all you city slickers. Bradley of Clovis was mauled by John Sanchez in the 2002 NM GOP Guv primary. Shortly after, a feud broke out over control of the state GOP with Bradley and others supporting then-chairwoman Ramsay Gorham with national R's moving to push her aside. Also on the new Pearce group is State Senate Minority Leader Stuart Ingle who represents the Clovis area.

Ag for Pearce is holding a high-dollar November 27 lunch for Pearce at the Clovis Civic Center. The southern NM congressman is working for blowout numbers on the east side to help offset Wilson's expected advantage in the ABQ metro.

But Pearce's campaign shouldn't get too cocky. We're informed that Roswell State Rep. Dan Foley and Roswell State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair are lining up for Heather. They might normally be expected to associated with the more conservative Pearce who represented their districts in Congress, but this is also a battle for the future leadership of the NM GOP and who will get to play. That makes for some interesting positioning.

TEAGUE'S TEXAS TEA

A money maven for southern NM Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague says not only did the former Lea County Commissioner raise $175,000 at a recent fund-raiser, but he has now written a personal check for $200,000 for the campaign, putting his cash total near the $400,000 level in one fell swoop. We blogged earlier of Teague's personal cash plans, pointing out that he and fellow Dem Joe Cervantes, who made his entry official Monday, both have the personal funds to dominate the nomination battle and probably will. Cervantes has not said how much, if any, of his personal agricultural based wealth he will pony up.

SHOTS FIRED
Cornelius
Meanwhile, Cervantes is already drawing fire from the other side of the aisle as young Republican, 28 year old Bob Cornelius, seeking the GOP nod for the seat being vacated by Pearce, says Cervantes' announcement Monday shows that Las Cruces attorney Joe is too closely associated with trial lawyers and he showed it.

"When you look at those who Cervantes surrounded himself with, you know what is at stake in this race. State Representatives Al Park of Albuquerque and Peter Wirth of Santa Fe, both left-wing liberal trial lawyers, do not represent our 2nd Congressional District. Cervantes flaunted his support from legislators who killed the parental notification bill, brought us the property rights infringing smoking ban and who made consistent attacks on the oil & gas industry. The results of these bills are taking New Mexico backward... We need conservtive values," declared Cornelius.

Cervantes had no comment. Also at the Cervantes announcement was House Majority Leader and trial lawyer Kenny Martinez whose House district includes part of the 2nd CD. Cervantes, Park and Martinez were ringleaders of an unsuccessful coup attempt against House Speaker Lujan last year in which Martinez lost his bid to replace Lujan.

Cornelius of Lea County is a former executive director of the Bernalillo County GOP. Restaurant owner Ed Tinsley is the other declared GOP candidate in the southern CD.

FROM THE NORTH

It appears that NM Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan may be edging into the front-runner position for the Dem nomination to replace Congressman Udall in the northern district. Santa Fe attorney and '06 Dem attorney general candidate Geno Zamora announced Tuesday he will not run for the position. Lujan, son of House Speaker Ben Lujan, would have been competing for Santa Fe area votes with Zamora.

Another top-tier candidate for this one is former Santa Fe County Commissioner Javier Gonzales who would have been competing with Zamora for the support of progressive Dems. Remember, current rules require 20% of the delegate vote at the March pre-primary convention. Only three or four candidates are going to be able to get on the June primary ballot. No one is officially announced yet for the northern seat as they await Udall's formal entry into the Senate race, but the serious candidates are working feverishly behind the scenes.

Ben Ray has to leave the PRC to run. Insiders speculate Zamora could take a look at that slot, even as he wonders aloud about his prospects for the 2010 Dem Light Guv nomination.

SENATE HEAT RISES

That poll released by the Udall camp showing him trouncing ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez 50% to 30% in the Dem US Senate primary prompted some quotes from the pugnacious Mayor that are not going to get hopes up for a relatively positive campaign.

“You take a tough-charging mayor against a congressman who is not known for having done anything. He’s never had the occasion to make tough decisions to offend people. You’re polling at the peak of his popularity. He’ll find that lead will evaporate like wet tissue paper.” Chavez told the Politico.

Don't expect early front-runner Udall to get into a public food fight with Marty quite yet. His surrogates will do the tough talking as Udall positions himself above the fray for as long as possible. The left-wing blogosphere is taking up Tom's cause, but it is for hard-core activists only as the personal disdain being expressed for Chavez is not going to resonate with the thousands of voters statewide who know the Mayor only through the media.

Chavez's claim that Udall is "not known for having done anything" is as over-the-top as the personal vitriol about Chavez coursing through the Internet. If the campaign devolves in the mainstream media into a hyper-negative slugfest, could it mean lower voter turnout in the June '08 primary? And would that tend to help Marty more than Tom? Just asking.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Udallites or Udallistas? We asked since we already have Chavezistas. Some of your answers.

• "Udallites looks and sounds like a communicable disease."
• "What is this? In New Mexico it has to be Udallistas!"
• "They might refer to themselves as Chavezistas, but the rest of us call them Martycrats."
• "I’m going with Udallites. Don’t you remember when St. Mo gave the sermon to the Udallites, they had fish and loaves and everything
  

No, I don't remember that. But with Saint Pete (Domenici) leaving, we're interested in anyone around here who is giving away free fish and loaves...

It's still not cheap, but tickets are $1000, not $2300, for the Heather Wilson for Senate fund-raiser featuring former Missouri Senator Jack Danforth. We initially said they were going for $2300...

We're the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news, comments, gossip and criticisms. Interested in advertising here? We don't blame you. Drop us a line and let's get started.

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You're going to be seeing more than your fair share of these in the coming months--invitations to high dollar soirèes sponsored by the top-tier candidates vying for three open US House seats and a Senate seat to boot. The one posted here (click for detail) is from ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson who hasn't exactly been in hiding, but her rival for the GOP Senate nod, Rep. Steve Pearce, has had most of the limelight since the duo announced they will both seek the seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. Heather is ready to pick up the pace, with a D.C. fundraiser this week featuring Veep Dick Cheney and the $1000 a pop party featuring former Missouri Senator John Danforth.

Insider R's say Wilson will follow in Pearce's shoes and conduct a 16 stop "listening tour" of the state in coming weeks, looking to shore up support outside of her ABQ base and where Pearce is strongest. For his part, the southern NM congressman who did a nine stop announcement tour, spent most of the weekend in ABQ trying to invade Heather's base. It will be just one of many weekends in which Pearce will camp out in the state's population center.

On the Dem side of the Senate battle, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez continues to do all he can to dominate the scene before US Rep. Tom Udall officially joins the race. Tonight at 6 p.m. Chavez is hosting an online town hall meeting. Here's a link to participate in the event at which Chavez will field questions from Internet viewers.

TOM'S TOUR

Meanwhile, what's good for the R's is good for the Democrats. Udall is apparently going to take a tour of the state ala Heather and Steve after he makes his formal entry, according to one of his political associates. One of the fun things to look forward to in this campaign is seeing Tom and Marty wearing cowboy hats while they campaign in Hobbs. Ride 'em, boys.

Udall is telling would-be staffers to contact his daughter Amanda, deputy campaign manager for Big Bill's Prez run, if they are interested in working for his Senate bid.

And is it Udallites, or Udallistas? Or something else? As our friends at Fox News would say: "You decide." Chavezistas is a keeper for Marty's backers, so we think Udallistas is out, but we'll call them anything they want, and probably some things they don't.

OVER FOR BILL?

And what about Big Bill? Does Udall's entrance mean we have seen the Guv's definitive exit from the Senate race? There are still some hold-outs, but the consensus seems to be that he is highly unlikely to get in this one. Squashing both Udall and Chavez would be pretty unseemly, and leave Udall up the creek without a paddle. If Bill went for Senate and Tom decided to turn back he would be looking at a line of wanna-be Congress folk who had been out campaigning and raising money. Still, the hold-outs are hard core. They say Richardson never closes any option, and what fun is politics anyway if you can't screw your friends? And you thought you might be too cynical!

2ND CD ACTION

State Rep. Joe Cervantes entered the Dem race for the southern congressional seat last night in Las Cruces. The Sun-News has a report. Former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague is also now off and running.

ANCHOR AWAY

A rare departure among the mainstays of NM TV news anchordom had the media mavens on high alert Monday. Carla Aragon announced she will leave KOB-TV at the end of the month. No replacement has been announced, but insiders say auditions have been taking place and include out-of-state prospects. Aragon said she is leaving on good terms and is not being pushed because of ratings or other reasons. Insiders did not dispute that take.

CARLA'S CAREER

Carla Aragon delivered the news to New Mexicans with an elegant simplicity that leavened the daily blow of complexity and mayhem that is served in heaping portions by the major ABQ television stations. Her long and fruitful run as lead anchorwoman for KOB-TV will end November 30 as the Santa Fe native concludes an over 30 year career in media and a 13 year stint as nightly news co-anchor with Tom Joles.

It was beauty mingled with verbal agility that was the original catapult for Aragon's career, but poise and persistence ensured its longevity. Just a few years after starting as a host for a 1979 infotainment show on KOB, she found herself at KNBC-TV in Los Angeles, America's #2 TV market, beginning an 11 year run hosting the morning show, "Today In L.A." That was when the "Big Time" was really the big time, with cable TV in its infancy and no Internet. Pretty heady stuff for the Aggie grad who got her introduction to media from her uncle and radio station operator George Gonzales.

Carla, now 52, made her way home and into the KOB anchor chair in the early 90's where she has held forth since with an air of calm amid the chaos that is a modern day newsroom. From that scene Monday, Aragon, still choked up from a speech to her colleagues announcing her departure, told me "the baby boomer bug" to seek "more significance, not just success" was a major reason she will leave her anchor chair. She will continue working, most immediately on a children's bilingual education book, but the final chapter of her TV news career is now history and she and her husband will share more time in Los Ranchos.

ON HER WATCH

Ratings, always of paramount concern in the profit crazy TV game, appeared to play no role in her leaving. Like a rare few, she achieved near iconic status with her audience which saw in her an extension of the state's ancient culture and a role model for young Hispanic women. "I've been able to explain things, to give a sense of history about New Mexico because I grew up here," she explained.

Fortunately, it won't be the constant parade of gruesome car crashes and killings that will hold sway in her memory banks. "The stories I am most proud of are of the native New Mexican culture--the curanderos, the penitentes. The stories that I will remember the most are the ones that dealt with the everyday struggles of ordinary people," she reflected.

Watching Carla Aragon anchor the news was a reminder, that despite the growing homogeneity of our modern culture, you were in a special place--New Mexico. We wish her well in her quest for significance, but argue that she's already attained a measure of it from her high-profile perch in our Enchanted Land. Que tengas suerte, Carla.

Your latest news and comments are welcome. Send them via email.

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Udall Versus Chavez
There will be no warm-up for the race for the Democratic nomination for the US Senate. The political slugfest between Tom Udall and Marty Chavez broke out immediately after Udall's camp confirmed Saturday that the northern NM Democratic congressman will leave his safe House seat to move up the ladder and into the World's Most Exclusive Club. Despite the heft of that news--now all three NM US House seats are wide open--ABQ Mayor Chavez, the decided underdog in the contest with Udall, managed to keep his rival from having the stage all alone.

Udall's camp leaked a poll along with the the news of his run. It scored Chavez for being a weak candidate who would place the Senate seat in jeopardy for the Dems. The poll said Tom has a 20 point statewide lead over Marty among D's--50% to 30%--and that Udall would also be a much stronger candidate in a general election match-up, beating GOP US Reps Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce while a Chavez victory would be, at best, questionable. The full poll is available here.

It was so far so good for Congressman Tom. But not for long. The always aggressive Chavez struck back with a political thunderbolt--he was now considering eliminating the highly unpopular and dreaded red light cameras that dot ABQ and have been costing errant drivers millions of dollars in fines. That news topped the front page of the ABQ Journal Sunday--the state's largest newspaper--putting the Udall announcement below it and causing, we suspect, no little angst in Tom's corner.

TV news gave Udall good play on its Saturday broadcasts, but they are the least watched of the week. On one of the heaviest nights of viewing--Sunday--it was Chavez giving the red light to Tom. The Politico's coverage of the race is here. The New Mexican hits the northern angle.

THE CHAVEZ PROBLEM

The Udallites can take solace in that Chavez will have to pull many more rabbits out of his hat to overcome his unpopularity in numerous Democratic circles. A Senior Alligator of La Politica (That's one who has a minimum of 25 years experience and is at least 45 years old. Applications available only at dark and foreboding NM lounges) who has supported Chavez in the past, put it this way hours after Udall threw his proverbial hat into the ring.

...Marty's impulsive actions have troubled his supporters and make us speculate over the psychological reasons. Everyone I talk to qualifies their concern with "he is a great mayor, but..." His spitefulness will do him in. His stubbornness is legendary. Will he listen to sage advice from cooler heads? (Marty supporter) Ed Romero heads up an experienced team of political heavy weights. However, their only argument is an ethnic one which I support but Marty is the wrong brown horse to bet on. He will damage the party by staying in and fighting with Udall. He has very little chance to beat either Wilson or Pearce. It comes back to the question of what dark psychological issues are driving him. We don't really want to know..This is why my support will go to Udall.

Udall's camp, however, can't risk underestimating Chavez, a three term Mayor who is as adept as a chameleon at changing his colors, but in a memo Udall's pollsters contend: "In the Democratic primary, Udall would need to be considerably outspent for Chavez to overcome Udall's popularity and his own negatives."

Would it have to be "considerably?" How much did it cost Chavez to do a U turn on the red light cameras and garner thousands of dollars in free media across the state? Not a dime. And what about ethnic voting? There will be some and that, too, will not cost much more than a breakfast burrito.

But Udall is in the drivers seat. His polling is backed up by a nonpartisan survey we saw for Bernalillo County Dem voters and a myriad of other public polling we have reported here. His obvious challenge will be to hold strong numbers in the months ahead, as any movement downward will give Chavez the room he needs to create doubt.

Udall has played it traditional, trying to get several bites out of the announcement apple. The weekend confirmation of his run came after he announced he was "reconsidering" the Senate race and is to be followed by a formal announcement later in the month. He's off to a decent start, but with Chavez lurking he better check for worms before he takes that next bite out of the apple.

HELLO, GOODBYE
Wiviott
Santa Fe liberal developer Don Wiviott is going to stay in the game, but switching to a smaller pond. He confirmed our original report that he will drop out of the US Senate race now that Udall is in and become a candidate for Udall's northern House seat. He could join as many as a dozen others. But he has put up $400,000 of his own money and if he becomes the sole Anglo candidate, Don could have a shot at making the ballot at the March pre-primary convention, but he is going to have to spend that cash and maybe more. That Udall poll gave him only 2% of the Dem vote in the US Senate race.

Back here in River City, the cash well is dry for many hopefuls, including GOP State Senator Mark Boitano who withdrew from the GOP race for the ABQ congressional seat in a Sunday night e-mail before even announcing. His fellow ABQ GOP Senator, Joe Carraro, has formed an exploratory committee to see if he wants to take on favorite and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. Joe faces the same challenge as Boitano in overcoming White--raising the cash to get the message out. Also, does Carraro want to give up his safe Senate seat? He could try to run for Congress and the Senate at the same time, but would likely run into credibility problems if he did. We will, as we are fond of saying, stay tuned.

Thanks to photog Mark Bralley for the weekend work. This is the home of New Mexico politics, and I'm Joe Monahan reporting to you from Albuquerque.

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Rep. Tom Udall's staff confirmed Saturday he will seek the Dem US Senate nomination.

Sen. Schumer
"Let New Mexico decide." That was the message ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez's campaign says he personally delivered to New York Senator Charles Schumer at a Washington D.C. meeting this week. They also say the Senator, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, did not ask Chavez to get out of the Senate race in favor of Dem US Rep. Tom Udall.

"There was nothing resolved. The mayor told Senator Schumer he believes it is best that New Mexicans decide this race," Said Chavez campaign manager Mark Fleisher.

The spokesman said Chavez remains fully committed to a Senate run. He dismissed rumors that Chavez might be persuaded to run for the open ABQ House seat, clearing the Senate field for Udall. "That is not going to happen. There is zero chance. Mayor Chavez is running for Senate." Said Fleisher.

Schumer made local headlines when he indicated the DSCC might endorse a candidate in our state's Dem Senate race, clearly meaning that they would endorse Udall because they do not think Chavez can win the general election. The Chavez campaign snapped back that it wanted "New Mexicans not New Yorkers" to decide the course of the Senate race.

NEW NUMBERS

Meanwhile, the left wing of the Democratic Party is beating the drums the loudest for Udall to come into the race. A new poll released on the liberal Web site Daily Kos confirms the conventional wisdom that Udall, as things stand today, would be a stronger general election candidate than the three term ABQ Mayor.

The poll, conducted this week among 600 "likely NM voters" showed Congressman Tom beating GOP US Rep. Wilson 55% to 38% and trouncing Rep. Pearce 54% to 37%. The poll says Chavez trails Wilson by three points and Pearce by one. Pearce and Wilson are leaving their US House seats to run for the GOP nod for Senate.

The poll did not measure Big Bill's strength against Wilson and Pearce but earlier polls show him stronger than Udall. Richardson says he isn't running. Some of the Alligators said one way he could get the Senate monkey off of his back is by endorsing Udall for the Senate seat over Chavez. An interesting thought, if Udall joins the battle.

THE PREZ BEAT

Meanwhile, The Guv was getting some good spin for a change for his chances in the Dem Prez sweepstakes. An AP analysis includes this tidbit: "A senior Iowa Democrat who backs Edwards is telling important people around the state that you will beat one of the top three Democrats on Jan. 3 — Clinton, Obama or Edwards — and drive that person from the race. A few others say the spoiler role could go to Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware."

JOE'S JOINING
Organ Mountains
Monday is Veterans Day and we wouldn't be surprised to see some of our beloved politicos surface to make some hay and throw some more wrenches into the complicated political equations we are all taking about. We know for sure that Doña Ana State Rep. Joe Cervantes will be making an appearance. He tells us he will formally announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the southern congressional seat seat at the NM Farm and Ranch Heritage Museum in Las Cruces whose main building is named after former NM Governor Bruce King.

Among those in attendance will be State Reps Kenny Martinez and Al Park who helped Cervantes spearhead an unsuccessful coup attempt against House Speaker Ben Lujan last December. Cervantes won't have to worry about Santa Fe anymore. He has told associates he is done with the State House and will not file for re-election for his seat.

Announcing at the ranch museum is intended to emphasize the hopeful's generational ties to agriculture. Cervantes hails from a major chile growing family. His mother was a founding member of the museum along with former Governor King and the Cervantes family cattle brand is on display there.

CAMPOS DROPS OUT

In an email Friday morning, just two days after he got in the southern congressional race, State Rep. Jose Campos said he is giving up his run for health reasons: "I will no longer be able to seek out the 2nd congressional seat. I will need surgery on my back this Wednesday." He said.

Running with Campos and Cervantes is oil man Harry Teague, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, Frank McKinnon and Al Kissling. Because Cervantes and Teague have signaled they are willing to self-finance their campaigns, they will start as the leading contenders, but this one should deliver plenty of fun.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Ex-Guvs Apodaca & Anaya
Forget the Internet, the glib TV commercials and the slick direct mail pieces. When it comes to the race for the first open New Mexico US Senate seat in 35 years, we're going Old School. That means hand-to-hand combat, behind the scenes movidas and raw ethnic politics. Wednesday we got a taste of it as two former Governors were roused from a long political hibernation and issued an unexpected endorsement of ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez in his bid for the 2008 Democratic Senate nomination.

Toney Anaya (1983-87) was blatant in his reasoning. "Chavez is a native son who understands the issues that are unique to our state." He declared.

Jerry Apodaca (1975-78), doubling up with Toney, said: "Chavez has demonstrated his strong leadership and administrative skills as Mayor."

Their message was aimed squarely at northern NM Congressman Tom Udall who is considering joining the battle for the Dem nod. They seemed to say if Udall comes he ought to prepare for warfare for the hearts of the native New Mexican families that have held forth here for four centuries. It doesn't get more Old School than that.

Anaya, 66, left the governor's office deeply unpopular and it could be argued his endorsement isn't worth much. That would be on the mark for a general election in which Republicans and Independents can vote, but we're talking about a Democratic primary. Anaya of Moriarty handed out a lot of jobs and patronage and many of those folks, almost all Dems, are still around. Apodaca, 73, of Las Cruces did not leave the Fourth Floor in bad shape and also has friends who may take a second look at Chavez after hearing from the former Governor.

HE NEEDS THEM

Chavez needs the help. He has alienated many in the Spanish north by leaning right while ABQ mayor. Some of the discontent goes back to when he was in the State Senate in the early 90's. Chavez may be unable to personally mend many of those fences. He will need supporters like Anaya and Apodaca to start doing the repair work.

Congressman Tom has represented the northern district since '98, garnering huge majorities among Hispanics and Native American who comprise a majority of the population there. He is positioned nicely with them and unless Chavez succeeds in bringing them home, he is a goner.

There has been no Hispanic in the five member NM congressional delegation since Bill Richardson left the northern seat in '98 to join the Clinton administration. The last Hispanic US Senator was Joe Montoya who was defeated in 1976. The most legendary NM US Senator is Dennis Chavez who died in ‘62 and whose statue is on display at the US Capitol.

Udall and Chavez both graduated from exclusive law schools. Udall from Cambridge in England; Chavez from Georgetown in D.C. But if they run against each other, they can forget what they learned at those elite campuses. This Senate race is a fight for La plebe--the people-- and it's going to be Old School all the way.

THE CAMPOS COUP

The Alligators are rarely wrong, but they aren't perfect and the e-mail came in Wednesday jabbing the slithery creatures for their assessment here this week that Dem State Rep. Jose Campos wasn't really serious about running for the southern NM US House seat. It turns out that Campos was more serious than they may have thought as he publicly announced that he will seek the Deem nomination for the seat being vacated by Republican Steve Pearce who is running for US Senate.

Rep. Campos's brother, Paul Campos, piled on the Gators and emailed: "As Joe’s brother, I can tell you that Joe is really running. Joe’s style is to run hard! He is already doing it. Joe Cervantes knows this."

The aforementioned Cervantes is Doña Ana State Rep. Joe Cervantes who appeared to be the sole major Hispanic candidate prepared to get into the southern race--until now.

The Alligators forced us to blog (really, they did) that Campos could be toying with an entry just to needle Cervantes because he opposed House Speaker Lujan for re-election to his leadership position.

Now that Campos says he is in the race, several of the Gators are still prodding us to ask him if he is going to publicly announce that he is giving up his State House seat to make the congressional run or will he delay that decision? A delay, they claim, buttresses their original thinking that Campos is not all in. (Alligators are known for their persistence.)

Campos is chairman of the House Voters and Elections Committee and if he stayed in the Legislature would be a major player in the 2011 redistricting of the legislative and congressional seats, but only if he stays around. If he gives up His Santa Fe seat and were to lose a Congress bid, he would remain mayor of Santa Rosa.

Paul Campos said he will ask Jose about that State House seat and report back. If Jose does give it up maybe another Campos will step forward to run for it. The district includes parts of Guadalupe, De Baca, Curry and Roosevelt counties. Meanwhile, I'll hold off punishing the Gators, but am preparing a vegetarian diet for them--but only if Campos says he is not seeking re-election to the Roundhouse--and it sticks. Stay tuned.

PATIENCE NO VIRTUE

If we're learning anything in this historic period in New Mexican politics it's that patience is not necessarily a virtue. Congressman Udall delays a decision and Chavez starts firing bullets; Rep. Cervantes delays getting in and Jose Campos beats him to the punch. Sometimes when you want to lead, you have to start leading.

DIFFICULT DISCLOSURE

There was some delicious irony around here Wednesday when e-mail came in pointing out that the link we had provided for the campaign finance report of Light Guv Diane Denish was a dead link. Di's team had proudly announced that she was voluntarily releasing a report on her fund-raising for the 2010 Governor's race even though none was required.

The problem has since been corrected. (Here's the report.) But you wonder if someone in Santa Fe is going to think this is a clever idea--pass a bill requiring tougher disclosure, but leave it up to the politicos to decide where it's disclosed. Actually, that would be a tougher law than the one have now. As they say, "Only in New Mexico...."

THE BOTTOM LINES

There is another Democratic candidate for the 2010 Dem Guv nomination. We blogged Wednesday that Diane was the only one, but we were reminded by astute reader Stephanie DuBois: “Carlos Provencio is an announced candidate for Governor from Silver City. He was the Grant County Democratic chair and recently stepped down to run for Governor. Talked with him Saturday at the State Central Committee meeting as he was passing out his literature.”

Alright, Carlos. We'll try not to forget you and the 2010 race, but with what's going to be happening in the next year, we can't make any promises...Big Bill is moving more troops to Iowa. This time from South Carolina. Looks like it's all Iowa all the time for the New Mexican who would be President...

Email your news and comments and keep the politics coming.

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With the clock ticking ominously, Big Bill has decided to marshal his forces and descend on Des Moines. His Prez campaign announced Tuesday his Nevada staffers are being moved to Iowa, the state that will hold the first Prez caucus January 3 and where it now appears only an upset showing by the New Mexico Governor will keep his long shot bid alive. The Guv is polling at about the 7% level in Iowa.

The move is logical. If John Edwards is do or die in Iowa, why not Richardson? Although he is keeping staff in New Hampshire and campaigning there, the Guv will have no momentum if he does not shake up the Hawkeye State. He can do nothing less than go all in and hope for the unexpected and be there to take advantage.

Look on the bright side, Guv. If it all ends January 3, you will have plenty of time to write your State-of-the-State speech for the opening day of the Legislature! Now that is sure to cheer the Big Guy up on the dark winter nights to come.

VOLUNTEER PAINS

Getting New Mexicans to brave the cold climes of Iowa is not easy under any circumstances, but with the caucus coming so close to the holidays some potential Bill Iowa volunteers are having second thoughts as we hear from one of those prospective volunteers.

"The Gov was seeking hundreds of New Mexicans to go to Iowa to help. I, along with all the other NM volunteers, cannot commit the December holidays to the weak Richardson campaign. That timing will hurt the candidates like Richardson who rely more on volunteers than paid workers that the big guys and girls can afford. I'll report back..."

STAFF INTRIGUE

Keeping your staff glued together can be a challenge when polling shows you going nowhere fast. So it is with the Guv. One national blog is going after him for kissing up to Hillary, asserting that a key Bill staffer is one of the reasons.

Richardson seems to have retooled himself into running hard for a spot on Clinton's ticket. In the recent debates, when others aggressively attacked Clinton, Richardson praised her and seemingly tried to fend off those candidates who did challenger her...The "Suck up to Hillary" strategy appears to be the brainchild of Richardson media consultant Steve Murphy. Murphy...would like to be picked-up for the Hillary entourage once Richardson is either crushed or The VP candidate. Whether it should be attributed to Murphy or others in the Richardson camp, Richardson is not acting these days like a real challenger...

Besides the ongoing Veep speculation, Bill has also been in the middle of the speculation over the open NM US Senate seat, insisting he is not running. Veteran insiders are still not willing to say if northern NM Dem US Rep. Tom Udall is coming in because they are hearing it out of Washington and not on the ground in NM, but those saying he is in say so with firm conviction. He would be joining ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. Certainly, the candidates hoping to replace Udall in the House believe he is coming in; we're told one of them has already hired a couple of consultants.

MORE SENATE STUFF

Let's go back to Monday's blog on Udall and Chavez that drew plenty of reaction. The point was not that Udall should not do all in his power to "clear the field." The point is when you try to do it before you are 100% committed to the race, you look like you're afraid to get in unless another guy gets out. That's not an emotion you want to convey when seeking a U.S. Senate seat.

Once Udall gets in the long knives will come out to choke off Chavez's national cash and to tie up Dems to beat out the ABQ Mayor at the March pre-primary convention. That is expected when you are all suited up. But threatening to do it without actually getting in the game is a different story.

DI'S DISCLOSURE
Denish
If Diane Denish can keep it up, perhaps "pay to play" politics will not loom quite as large over the state. The Light Guv has decided to release regular reports on her campaign fund-raising for the 2010 Guv's race, even though state law does not require regular disclosure until the election year. Her first report shows no five figure contribution. You can download the report here.

There is no limit on contributions here, but the largest one Denish reported taking was for $5,500 from the Dem Lt. Governor's Association. She also picked up Five Grand from Downs at Santa Fe owner and Big Bill pal Paul Blanchard. That contrasts with some of the huge donations we saw in last year's election.

Denish and other members of the Guv's ethics task force have been advocating limits on contributions and more open disclosure, but the politicians on the committee have ignored calls for them to set an example and voluntarily release information or limit their own contributions. The Light Guv is the first major candidate we can recall releasing a campaign report when not required, and is going to score political points, particularly with liberal Dems who have been the staunchest advocates of ethics reform.

Lady Di's war chest is healthy, showing about $1.2 million in cash and $260,000 in debt. She raised $221,000 in the quarter and spent $79,000. One of her larger expenditures was about $15,000 and went to the political consulting firm HildebrandTewes.

With the race for Guv starting four years before the election and millions set to be raised, the hole in the state law requiring little reporting is as big as the hole they made to build the Pit. Denish has done her part to fill it. Can our state lawmakers now pick up their shovels?

FINALLY IN

It took long enough, but we finally have an official GOP candidate in the race for the Steve Pearce US House seat. Restaurant owner and rancher Ed Tinsley of Captain sent out a press release Tuesday announcing his bid. He said the top issues in the southern congressional district are: "immigration reform and border security, health care, small business and family tax relief and the safety of Americans."

Interesting that the #1 issue in the USA--the no-end-in-sight Iraq war--is not mentioned. Pearce also did not emphasize the "I" word in his announcement for Senate.

THOSE WACKY POLLS

More today on SurveyUSA's polling in the NM US Senate race. Pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides said the latest survey was a "stinker" because it was so widely divergent from SurveyUSA's early October poll. Hal Hensley was one of several readers to make this point:

...There is a legitimate argument regarding the effectiveness of the methodology, but Pavlides has no basis in saying this most recent poll is a "stinker." It could just as well be the previous poll was the "stinker." ...The most recent poll has a larger sample which would lead me to put more credence in its results, but the bottom line is: I would recommend waiting until Survey USA comes out with its next poll before determining what does or does not constitute a "stinker."

Pavlides responds that he is not happy with either SurveyUSA Senate polls because of the methodology. He says he believes the poll is most useful when it deals with candidates with exceptionally high name ID like Governor Big Bill and Senator Pete Domenici, but less reliable when measuring candidates not already very well-known by the general public.

"The results involving very well known candidates often does not diverge greatly between registered and non-registered voters because everyone, not only the more informed registered voters, is familiar with them." He said.

INSIDE THE POLL

Survey USA asks by automatic phone call whether the respondent is registered to vote. There is no guarantee that the respondent is providing accurate information. Pavlides believes SurveyUSA will become more accurate as the campaign progresses because the difference in opinion between registered and non-registered persons will diminish as the Senate race becomes "high information." There is no way to know how many respondents are answering incorrectly when they say they are registered voters.

But even by the "very well known" standard, the latest poll seems askew as it gives Big Bill a 52% approval rating, his lowest ever and with no events to explain the drop. Despite the low approval, the poll says the Guv still trounces Wilson and Pearce with around 59% of the vote. Also, his approval rating is much higher in other polling. That's why they are calling this particular survey a stinker.

Pavlides said he agrees with Hensley that the SurveyUSA poll released this week is the more accurate of the two. It shows Chavez narrowly beating Wilson and Pearce. The first poll had Pearce beating Chavez by 18 points and losing to Wilson by four. But none of the politicos we spoke with are putting much stock in any of these numbers.

The problem is no NM or national news organization is currently polling the state with a firm scientific method--screening for registered voters and using live phone interviewers. Until we get that, SurveyUSA will be welcomed, but greeted with the proverbial grain of salt by the picky eaters of our cherished La Politica.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In Las Cruces Tuesday night, Democrat Ken Miyagishima appeared to have upset Republican Mayor Bill Mattiace by 74 votes out of 11,416 cast. Miyagishima received 5,745 votes, or 50.3 percent to Mattiace’s 5,671 votes, or 49.7 percent. If the results hold, the Mayors of NM's four largest cities--ABQ, Las Cruces, Santa Fe and Rio Rancho--will all be led by Dems.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments and stop by again soon.

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The latest SurveyUSA poll showing wild differences with one conducted just three weeks earlier was being labeled a "stinker" by sharp-eyed observers, but the smell certainly didn't offend ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. He jumped on the results like green chile to an enchilada when he heard the survey had him beating GOP US Senate candidates Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. Never mind that the October 8 numbers showed Chavez being waxed by Pearce by 18 points. It now has Marty beating the southern NM congressman by five (48% to 43%). And never mind that he was losing to US Rep. Wilson by four in the first poll, but now beats her by four (48% to 44%). Chavez was not about to lose an opportunity to take on his number one problem--the perception that he can't win a statewide race.

The poll, as shaky as it was, nevertheless comes as northern Dem NM US Congressman Tom Udall weighs getting in the race against Chavez for the US Senate nod, providing Chavez with a hook to keep the money coming in while Udall ponders. It also highlighted the importance of being on the field and in the game for the coveted Senate chair. Chavez is able to crow about the poll, use it to raise money and there is no one around to challenge him. It's the kind of thing that drives his many critics up the wall. For Chavez it's just another day at the office.

Veteran political analyst and consultant Harry Pavlides said the methodology of the poll--random dialing by automatic phone call into households not screened for registered voters--is bound to deliver inconsistent results.

"Once in a while you are going to get a stinker using this method, and that what we have here," explained Pavlides.

He said Pearce going from 18 up to four back is the most glaring example, but he also said the Chavez-Wilson match-up is jumping around because of the polling method, not because of news or campaign events. He sees it as a potentially close race, with no clear front-runner. (Udall was not included in the survey conducted last week. In an earlier survey, he beat both Pearce and Wilson handily.)

There is a consistency in the two recent SurveyUSA polls that Pavlides said merits attention. Dem Guv Big Bill is trouncing Pearce and Wilson in mock Senate match-ups. He beats Heather 59% to 37%. Against Pearce the Democratic Governor wins 58% to 37%. The first survey showed similar results, with Richardson a notch stronger.

BILL AND THE SENATE

And that brings us back to Bill. Is Richardson reluctant to give a firm answer to Tom Udall on his Senate plans? And is that causing heartburn for Udall? Udall is saying the Guv has "definitively" ruled out a Senate race, but some Richardson insiders are saying they have been told to keep their powder dry, indicating that the Senate is still on Bill's radar. I asked one of these "insiders" who it was that told him to cool his jets. "It came from the top," he said. The Governor? I asked. "The top," he replied."

What is especially worrisome to the Udall camp is statements like these from politicos close to the Guv. "Even if Tom gets in the race, I wouldn't rule out Richardson running. Bill Richardson is going to do what is good for Bill Richardson." Said one.

Tom Udall has something to lose--a comfortable US House seat. If Richardson is turned away in his bid for the Dem nod for President and his chances for Veep look dim, he could very well join Marty Chavez in singing that Bob Dylan line: "When you ain't got nothing, you ain't got nothing to lose."

NAME DROPPING

We don't want to start breaking their hearts so soon, but the multitude of candidates floating their names for the southern congressional seat and the one up North, have little chance of making it to the June ballot. Remember that 20% thing? You need a minimum of 20% at the March pre-primary convention to get on the ballot. As comedian Bill Maher would say: "New Rule."

It means we will probably have no more than three, perhaps four, candidates ultimately running for the Dem nominations down south and, if Udall leaves his House seat, the same number for the Dem nod up north. Same for the R's down south. The northern House seat is overwhelmingly Dem and will likely attract only one or two serious GOP contenders.

THE MINI-MOVIDA
Rep. Campos
Would State Rep. and Santa Rosa Mayor Jose Campos really give up his seat to go for the Dem nomination for the Pearce House seat? Probably not, say the Alligators. But it may have the intended effect of freaking out Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes who is preparing to announce his candidacy soon. Campos would eat into Cervantes's Hispanic support. The Gators point to NM House Speaker Ben Lujan to explain this one. Cervantes opposed the Speaker's re-election and now the Speaker's friend Jose is talking of opposing Joe.

Hey, you and I can be pretty sure that Campos won't do it, but Cervantes may have to hit Walgreens for the Sominex. And that is what they call a "mini-movida."

Meanwhile, Speaker Lujan's son, Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the NM Public Regulation Commission, is hitting the phones talking to Dem Central Committee members seeking support for a run for Udall's House seat, but Udall, according to one of our informers, has called the leading candidates and told them not to jump in before they get word from him.

BACK TO THE NAMES

Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman is having his name tossed around as a possible Republican candidate for the Pearce House seat. GOP Restaurant owner Ed Tinsley tells us he is going to talk to reporters Wednesday about his planned run. The son of Roswell area rancher Aubrey Dunn tells us his dad will make his plans for the GOP race known by mid-month. Bob Cornelius of Tatum in Lea County has already announced. Others are toying with it. Another Bob, Bob Gallagher of the NM Oil and Gas Association, is also a possible for the Udall seat on the Dem side.

Tom, you better hurry up and make up your mind. The dam is about to burst.

THE BOTTOM LINES

State GOP chair Allen Weh says we jumped the gun when we said the current leadership of the NM GOP is in the Heather Wilson camp when it comes to her Senate race with Steve Pearce.

"That’s a broad brush statement that would logically implicate me since I’m the chairman. Not only is there no “proof” of my boosting Heather (excepting prior support and contributions as a member of the House running for re-election), you will find this chairman is neutral and focused on keeping the debate civil and on the issues."

News? Comments? Send them our way and help keep the politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Udall & Chavez
Call them the doubters of Thomas. A slightly tentative tone creeped into the speech given by Dem US Rep. Tom Udall Saturday when he addressed the NM Democratic Party State Central Committee, and it was enough for the arm chair analysts and Alligators to reopen the betting line on whether Udall will really give up his northern NM US House seat and run for the US Senate. At the same time, reliable insiders said Udall's camp is hoping that ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez can be persuaded to get out before Udall makes a final decision. Udall now says he will take two weeks to decide which would put an announcement no later than November 16th.

Udall, who Thursday said he was "reconsidering" whether to seek the Senate seat, was not expected to formally announce Saturday, but by most accounts he also did not deliver a speech that indicated he was strongly leaning toward a run. He said before committing he wanted to consult Dem NM Senator Bingaman and the Senate Democratic leadership and wanted assurances that he would start off with some stroke. Udall would be giving up a slot on the powerful House Appropriations Committee if he were to be lucky enough to take a Senate seat.

But what assurances can he get? Promise a first year freshman senator a seat on the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee? Good luck. That would be a promise not worth the cocktail napkin it was written on.

MOVING MARTY

Top Democratic Party insiders said they agreed that Udall's initial foray into the public arena following his decision to reconsider a Senate race was more muted than expected. They also said they believe he is taking two weeks not to just talk to the Senate leadership, but to see if D.C. Dems intent on getting ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez out of the race can work some magic on Udall's behalf. Again, good luck.

A cross section of Dem power players agreed putting pressure on Chavez via the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and its chairman, New York Senator Chuck Schumer, would only make Chavez dig in his heels.

Mike Santullo, a NM talk radio pioneer and a native New Yorker with 35 years of NM political experience, put it this way:

"If Tom Udall wants this seat he is going to have to be prepared to fight for it. It is not going to be given to him nor is it his to assume by hereditary right. Senator Schumer would be well-advised to heed the words of (former NM Territorial Governor) Lew Wallace. 'All calculations based on our experiences elsewhere fail in New Mexico.'

Santullo also framed the race as "Chavez's brass knuckles against Udall's boxing gloves."

"You must fight for the right." He maintained.

Udall's father, Stewart Udall, was a U.S. House member from Arizona from 1955 to 1961 and then served as U.S. Interior secretary from 1961 to 1969.

CEMENT AND THE PILLOW

Another political veteran offered her assessment where the Chavez-Udall situation stands.

"Chavez sleeps on cement. This is it for him. He is going to do whatever it takes. Udall has a soft pillow with his congressional seat. That's the difference." She said.

Others chimed in that Udall's two week stall could have the effect of drying up Marty's cash and also keeps the focus off of Big Bill who has been wounded by speculation that he might seek the Senate seat if his Prez campaign falters.

GAMING THE RACE

If the national Dems insist on risking building sympathy for Chavez, they could call on personalities such as former President Clinton and Hillary to lobby him to get out. But it would likely be for naught. If Chavez folded because Bill Richardson was getting in, that would be one thing, but to fold for Udall would forever mark him in the history books. If Senator Schumer thinks differently, we suggest he switch his brand of scotch.

Could Chavez be threatened out of the race? It's hard to see. The three term ABQ mayor has been accused of just about everything and he is still standing. What are they going to throw at him that he fears, and that they have the stomach to take before the public?

Udall's caution is legendary. He rarely looks for a fight. It is not in his character, but a fight it will likely be if you really want a hand in leading the American nation.

If he is indeed planning a run, he may have made a tactical error by appearing at the Saturday meeting and not stepping up the rhetoric. Also, if the goal is to generate news and build statewide name ID for two weeks, you want to be darn sure what you're re putting out emphasizes your strength, not the element of your personality that could cause trouble.

On this one, we break with the conventional wisdom of the Washington press, the anti-Chavez brigades, and the coterie surrounding Chuck Schumer which all have Udall definitely in this race. Our gut and our Alligators have us planted firmly on the fence. We are agnostic until we are shown the proof. And we won't surprised if it goes either way. Neither should you.

PEARCE PLACE

For Steve Pearce a Senate run by Big Bill remains on the table. The southern NM GOP Congressman says he still sees Richardson possibly getting in the race, or at least believes that's how he should conduct himself.

"If you're a high-school football team, you don't prepare to play against Jal if your opponent's going to be Albuquerque High," he said.

Yes, Big Bill lurks. Until Udall utters, Bill's possible presence in the Senate race casts a long shadow. And even if Udall gets in, the noise won't go away until after the February 12 filing deadline. The stakes are that high.

THE HAT TRICK
Cargo
Pearce, facing a primary battle with ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, had a hat trick at his formal entry into the race Friday afternoon in ABQ--he pulled out former NM Governor Dave Cargo. The most prominent moderate Republican in the state introduced Pearce. It was Pearce looking to invade Heather's territory in the big metro area and the Spanish North and fight perceptions that he is too conservative to win a general election.

State R's are split into factions over the Wilson-Pearce race. The current leadership, Senator Domenici's operatives and associated consultants and hangers-on are boosting Heather. Pearce is attracting the reform wing that made an unsuccessful play this year to replace GOP Chairman Allen Weh. Cargo, 78, is not a conservative Pearce type, but is willing to go with him as Pearce will assume leadership of the party if he wins the nomination.

You old-timers will note the Cargo appearance with Pearce for another reason. The ex-Guv sought the open US Senate seat in 1972 when Democratic Senator Clinton Anderson retired. Who beat Dave for the GOP nomination that year? None other than Pete Domenici. Now, 35 years later, Cargo is back to put the needle in.

Truly, our beloved La Politica is a game for a lifetime.

IRAQ? WHAT'S THAT?

Pearce's announcement was also notable in that he did not once mention the word "Iraq." He threw out just a chunk of red meat, not the whole steak.

"We need conservative leadership in Congress that will say ‘NO’ to socialized medicine and runaway spending, and ‘YES’ to allowing our troops and their commanders to make military decisions – not politicians," he declared.

Pearce knows Iraq is the emotional trigger for all that has gone wrong in the nation and why polling shows record numbers feel the country is on the wrong track. His down-the-line support for the unpopular war is a major obstacle to his ultimate election.

Pearce won live TV coverage of his speech on KOB-TV, but he was lucky. He was not ready when the cameras came to the podium at the top of the 4 p.m newscast. But the station came back 10 minutes later when he was ready and carried his entire 10 minute speech. Also, Pearce's wife, Cynthia, was not positioned in the shot with Pearce, losing an opportunity to introduce her to the state and also soften his own tough image.

The congressman also used up valuable statewide airtime by taking several minutes to thank just about every person in the room, all of them unknown to the viewing audience. The 60 year old Pearce found his footing when he got into the heart of his speech.

THE SHAKY STARTS

We have a solid field of contenders for the US Senate, but viewing the last month through the rearview mirror, you can see why Pete Domenici was the undisputed champion. His retirement speech in early October at ABQ's St. Mary's High School Gym came off without a hitch, even as the 75 year old struggled with an incurable disease that has slowed his gait. The advance work for the speech was on the mark and the event, broadcast on all three network TV stations, was as smooth as silk.

Contrast that with the rushed and wobbly entry of Heather Wilson who, barely 24 hours after Pete dropped out, announced in a small hotel room with no message. Then there was Mayor Chavez's ill-conceived decision to announce at a private business. Never a good idea anytime, but especially reckless as the financially insecure Eclipse Aviation bit the Mayor days later by announcing layoffs. And we've mentioned today the Pearce media missteps and questioned the wisdom of Tom Udall showing up on statewide TV and perhaps hurting, not helping, his possible bid for the Senate.

Sure, the candidates were taken by surprise by the Domenici retirement, but their helter-skelter debuts raises questions. Where are all the vaunted and expensive consultants? Didn't anyone thinking of paying a couple of grand and having them help for a day or two? What are the ridiculous amounts of money for? And where are the streetwise congressional staffs?

Pete Domenici knew how to shape perceptions by commanding the public stage with confidence, authority and attention to detail. And his staff responded. The choppy media starts of his would-be successors are an acute reminder of how big the Domenici shoes are. They will not be filled with one fitting.

MY BOTTOM LINES

Former GOP NM Attorney General Hal Stratton ('87-90) ends his public career on a down note with the WaPo hitting hard on Stratton's term as head of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and his acceptance of industry paid trips...The candidates hoping to replace Tom Udall in his congressional seat if he decides to run for Senate are stacked up like cordwood...Photog Mark Bralley took today's political photos over the weekend. A tip of the hat to him...

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Rep. Udall
After a brief lull events are again cascading like a waterfall, sending the New Mexican political community into a frenzy and burning cell phone minutes faster than Al Unser racing at the Indy 500. On Thursday alone, Dem US Congressman Tom Udall said he has renewed his interest in seeking the Dem nomination for US Senate, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish said she will not go for the Senate and Republican Steve Pearce released a radio commercial indirectly jabbing his opponent for the GOP Senate nod, ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson. Also, businessman Ed Tinsley was preparing to become on Monday the first declared Republican candidate for Pearce’s House seat. Let’s go to the action...

The headliner was Udall "reconsidering" a run for the Senate nomination, as the "Anybody but Chavez" movement continued unabated, but the camp of ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez made clear Udall or no Udall he is in the race to stay, setting up a potentially bloody intra-party contest.

Udall has not yet pulled the trigger, but he is close. "New Mexicans have urged Tom Udall to reconsider running for the United States Senate, and he's doing just that," spokeswoman Marissa Padilla said. (We analyzed the developments with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson.)

In Washington, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New York Senator Chuck Schumer, all but endorsed Udall or any other Dem over Chavez, saying the committee is not ruling out the possibility of endorsing a Democrat in a contested Senate race. That is rarely done and the possibility drew a sharp rebuke from Chavez's campaign. The race, the campaign said, would "be decided by New Mexicans, not New Yorkers."

Folks, we just checked Ticketmaster and the Udall-Chavez bout is a sell-out.

EXCLUSIVE INSIDER ANALYSIS

Udall would be a very strong candidate for the nomination but victory, if it comes, would not be obtained without a price.

Udall knows he has only so long to toy with the notion. Only minutes after word spread of his renewed interest, the names of at least a dozen northern Dem names were floating as possible successors to the 59 year old congressman. Santa Fe's Don Wiviott was one of them. The current Senate candidate was seen folding his hand if fellow northern liberal Udall gets in and perhaps going for Udall's House seat.

If Tom does go, New Mexico, in 2008, for the first time in its history would have three open US House seats and and open Senate seat. Political junkies were having orgasms over the prospect and TV station managers were drooling over the millions to be spent.

Those not involved in the heat of battle, however, worried that our state now faces the prospect of having all freshman lawmakers in the US House as well as a freshman US Senator. For a state that receives more federal government money per capita than any other, it was not a comforting thought. Udall would be giving up a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee to run. Senator Bingaman would be alone in having significant seniority in the state's delegation.

Udall has $800,000 in the bank he could use for a Senate run, plus internal polling showing he could beat Chavez and win the general election over either Wilson or Pearce. The public SurveyyUSA poll shows him trouncing either of them by 18 points, but that is before the inevitable attacks.

The top insiders say he is leaning towards the run, but he must look deep to see if he has the fire in the belly. Running against Chavez and coming out winning but wounded is the key consideration. He can't dally for long, perhaps a week or so, because the Alligators are lining up in the north ready to start feasting on an open seat. If he keeps them waiting too long, they could start feasting on him.

BILL'S PLACE

Big Bill is still the great hope for the Dems to secure the Senate seat. Udall's daughter, Amanda Cooper, is in the middle of this one as she serves as a deputy campaign manager for Bill and is called on to advise Dad. If Udall goes, a Big Bill entry becomes extremely unlikely. The nagging will finally stop and he can get on with his Prez campaign, but if Udall turns out to have made a false start, Bill is again dragged back into the guessing game. Is Udall throwing off false signals to deflect the Senate buzz surrounding Bill and which is choking the Guv's Prez effort? Unlikely, but in this atmosphere crazier theories are being heard.

DI'S DANCE

While Udall was waltzing onto the dance floor, Light Guv Diane Denish was dancing off, clearing the path for him if he chooses to jump. She will formally announce today that she will not seek the Senate seat, staying squarely focused on the 2010 race for Governor. It was one of the most expected announcements of the season, but with everyone on tippy-toes over everything, the news was greeted with relief that at least one scenario of a thousand was being retired. Di's dance card has been filled by national Dems trying to get her into a potentially ugly race against Mayor Chavez. She was last seen walking into her massage appointment softly muttering, "He's all yours, Tom."

PEARCE STRIKE

Steve Pearce is wasting no time trying to frame his primary battle with Heather Wilson. He released a radio commercial even before he formally announced his run in Hobbs at noon today and at 4 p.m. in ABQ. It's the first paid electronic media of the 2008 US Senate race, coming seven months before the June primary. (Download the spot here.)

Predictably, the southern NM rep portrays himself as the "Consistent Conservative," a jab at Wilson and a play for the more conservative GOP voters expected to be likely primary voters. Here's an excerpt of the 60 second spot voiced by Pearce.

"In Congress I fought to eliminate wasteful spending and worked to lower taxes to help families. I’ve supported reforms to restore trust in America and to make healthcare affordable while opposing big government schemes which promised socialized medicine, even for illegal aliens, at taxpayer expense.

I’ve worked to secure our borders, defend America from terrorists, and have been proud to stand up for our traditional New Mexico values. We need consistent conservative leadership in Washington . Leadership guided not by the latest opinion polls, but by core conservative New Mexico values."

The tag line is "consistent conservative leadership we can trust," hammering home the contrast with self-described "moderate" Republican Wilson.

EVEN MORE POLITICS

Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley has made his final decision, but will milk it for all it is worth and announce Monday that he will soon formally announce for the GOP nomination for the Pearce House seat, say supporters. The Lincoln County rancher isn't going to be alone for long. Also planning to get in the race is 28 year old Bob Cornelius, the executive director of the Bernalillo County GOP. He is from Lea County and says he will be moving back there soon to launch his candidacy. Cornelius says he will announce over the weekend. He does not have the personal wealth Tinsley does, but says he will be able to raise seed money to launch his effort.

THE BOTTOM LINES

As our world turns...

Will Tom Run? (You tell us.)

Will we ever stop talking about Richardson running for Senate? (Only if Tom formally announces.)

Will D.C Dems ever stop panicking over Marty Chavez? (No.)

Will New Mexico continue to be a bloggers' paradise? (It's the political Garden of Eden.)

Email your news and comments and visit us again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Add another race to your must-watch list for Campaign '08. A serious challenger has emerged for NM House Minority Whip Dan Foley. He's Dennis Kintigh, retired from the FBI after 25 years and now ready to get his feet wet in the treacherous waters of Chaves county politics by challenging Foley for the Republican nomination for his Roswell area seat.

"I see this as an extension of my public service. It's something I want to do and I anticipate entering the race in the near future," said Kintigh.

This Republican race will attract statewide attention because of Foley's leadership position and because he has been controversial. Most recently he burst into the headlines when he was arrested on charges of resisting arrest, disorderly conduct and obstructing an officer. That case is pending before a special prosecutor.

Foley and State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair have held a pretty firm grip on Chaves county GOP politics but they continue to be challenged by a faction that includes oilman Mark Murphy who want more moderate lawmakers.

Political newcomer Kintigh worked the narcotics beat for the FBI, dealing with some tough customers as described by the Roswell Record. That experience should come in handy as the customers don't come much tougher than Dan Foley.

INSIDE THE PNM LAYOFFS

Business Beagles are saying a big reason for the big layoffs at Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) is the electric utility's stock price. PNM is letting go of 500 workers over the next year--150 right away---saying the company needs to get lean and mean to finance future growth. But the business beagles say going unmentioned as a chief reason for the job slashing is continued pressure on PNM management to boost the company's stock price.

"There is a tremendous amount of pressure on management to produce a growing stock price. Utilities like PNM were once expected to be just steady stock performers. That is no longer the case. Wall Street wants a steady increase in the stock price, and they generally get what they want." Explained one of the biz beagles.

PNM's stock has been down as much as a third from its 52 week high. In recent years, Microsoft's Bill Gates bought a significant stake in the company.

PNM is taking hits for not shedding some weight in its highly paid executive suites while laying off rank and file employees. PNM CEO Jeff Sterba says execs will forgo bonuses for now, but they will keep their jobs.

FRED GETS FIERY
Mondragon
State Economic Development Secretary Fred Mondragon raised some eyebrows as he came out swinging against the PNM layoffs, the over 100 recently announced by Eclipse Aviation and 1,000 layoffs in Rio Rancho at Intel Corporation. He told KRQE-TV news:

"It's hard to see how they can justify a rate increase while at the same time laying off a number of people. I'm getting a little bit tired of these large companies coming in right before Christmas and playing bogeyman man... In this case right before Halloween and letting go of people right at the end of the year right before the holidays."

Mondragon suggested PNM execs look to cut costs among themselves. I'd be concerned about the high salaries," Mondragon continued. "They just brought in a high-powered executive from Colorado to be the chief operating officer."

Recent annual total compensation for CEO Sterba is $3.6 million. Other compensation in the executive suite of the publicly regulated utility include William Real at $924,000, Alice Cobb at $898,000 and Charles Eldred at $771,000.

Mondragon's comments are not going to resonate favorably in the PNM boardroom which is gearing up for a December rate increase hearing before the NM Public Regulation Commission, but his comments should be noted by the Legislature and local governments as they contemplate economic incentives for large companies.

Good paying jobs are cited as the trade-off for taxpayer sweetened deals, but now we're seeing how sour things can get for working New Mexicans when the big boys start sneezing.

PEARCE'S TOUR

The decidedly non-splashy Steve Pearce will try to make a splash Friday by beginning an "announcement tour" for his GOP US Senate candidacy. He'll start at a teen center in his hometown of Hobbs in SE NM and then make his way to ABQ for a 4 p.m. event at the Embassy Suites Hotel. One suspects he will try to nab live coverage on the 4 p.m. KOB-TV and KRQE-TV newscasts. The campaign is inviting several hundred supporters to be on hand.

Over the weekend Pearce will stop in Farmington, Santa Fe, Roswell and Alamogordo. He finishes Sunday in Mesilla in Doña Ana county.

A statewide candidate announcement like this needs to hit the ABQ and the El Paso TV markets. El Paso serves Las Cruces and Doña Ana County. Pearce could have gone straight to Doña Ana from Hobbs on Friday, but apparently believes he will be able get Sunday El Paso TV, even if he has done ABQ two days earlier. And if his campaign is not thinking "TV, TV, TV," they're not thinking right.

HEATHER'S NEWS BUREAU

ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson, apparently looking to burnish her credentials with the conservative crowd as she faces a tough race against Pearce for the GOP Senate nomination, engages in some old-fashioned press bashing in her latest newsletter.

"I bet you didn't hear this on the evening news last week," she writes. "In Al Anbar province, last week we had no casualties, killed or wounded in action...Al Anbar is the predominently Sunni part of Iraq where al Qaeda in Iraq was wreaking havoc about a year ago...It is vital to America that Iraq not become a safe haven for al Qaeda. Al Anbar is ground zero for that fight.

"The counter-insurgency strategy in al Anbar appears to be working. That's why you didn't hear about it last week." Declared Wilson

Sounding a little cocky there, Heather. But don't be too tough on members of the Fourth Estate. After all, you've only given them five years to learn what constitutes "real war news." If you help keep the war going another five, they are sure to come up with the quality journalism you expect. Oh, and a note to the Heather newsletter editor. It's spelled "predominantly" not "predominently."

Yeah, we love this game....

Have some political news? Comments? Email them our way. See you tomorrow on the Friday blog.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author