Who were the two happiest people in New Mexico shortly after 1 p.m. Thursday? Well, if not the happiest surely GOP US Reps Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce were among the top ten. At his presidential withdrawal speech, Big Bill openly embraced the Dem US Senate candidacy of US Rep. Tom Udall, finally ending speculation that he might seek the Domenici seat. Pearce or Wilson would have had little chance against Bill, but either would have a fighting chance against Udall.

WHERE DID THE CASH GO?

Richardson told the crowd gathered at the Capitol Rotunda to hear his presidential swan song (Video) that his campaign raised $22 million. An impressive sum. But where did it all go? Why did the campaign not have television ads up for the final three days of the critical New Hampshire primary? Republicans have long attacked Big Bill as a big spender. It looks like they have fresh ammo. It is nearly unimaginable that the campaign had no New Hampshire TV after raising so much money. You wonder how the big contributors feel about it.

WHY NO ENDORSEMENT?

Bill Clinton made Bill Richardson energy secretary and ambassador to the United Nations. In other words, he made his political career. So why didn't the Governor endorse Hillary Clinton Thursday? It would have been a political coup if he had done so. 2004 Dem prez nominee John Kerry was dumping on Hill (and his former running mate John Edwards) Thursday by endorsing Obama for the Dem nod. It was a golden opportunity for Bill to get back in the the Clintons' good graces and provide a counterpoint to Kerry. It also would have helped him recover from his campaign's dissing of Hillary In Iowa where they threw support to Obama.

Richardson's endorsement would never have been more valuable. By scoring only two percent in Iowa and five percent in New Hampshire, he has few bargaining chips and the one big one he had he kept in his pocket.

DENISH DECISION

While Bill was not ready to endorse a fellow prez contender, NM Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish was indicating she will endorse Hillary because she would like to see a woman become president. And she also would like to see a woman become governor of New Mexico--in case you were wondering.

WHY NO SENATE PLAY?

The decision by Richardson to turn down a shot at the open US Senate seat is apparently based on Bill's genuine feelings that he has "been there and done that." But by not going for it, life may be a little harder for NM Dems. If he ran for the Senate and won, the Guv would get the Dems that much closer to the 60 votes they need to move legislation; Diane Denish's chances of retaining the Governor's office for the Dems in 2010 would have improved as she would be running as the incumbent, and the D's chances of carrying swing state NM and its five electoral votes in the presidential election would have gone way up with Richardson leading the state ticket.

LAME DUCK

With his shot at a big job with any new Dem administration foggy at best, some of the Alligators are saying look for the Guv to lower his expectations. That means we might hear his name for slots other than the rarefied veep or secretary of state positions. If Bill doesn't relish the prospect of spending three lame-duck years at the helm of NM government, casting his net wider could still get him back in the national government. Meantime, New Mexicans used the Web to say how they felt about Bill getting out of the prez race.

THE OUTLOOK?

There is a price for losing, and the Governor knows it. The Legislature will be less intimidated as they poke at the Governor's wounds from the presidential trail. The Senate will be even more independent and we could even see the state House, supremely docile under the leadership of Speaker Lujan, start to balk at executive power.

The only legislation Bill mentioned in his prez withdrawal speech was extending health care to all New Mexicans by the end of his term. It is probably premature to pronounce his plan dead, but every lobbyist and lawmaker we have asked says his plan is not going to get through the short 30 day session.

It's not just politics slowing the health proposal; it's the economy and the fear by a number of lawmakers that we could be sliding into a recession. If that's true, state revenues will decline further, making an expensive extension of health care look more like a luxury than a necessity.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Big Bill campaign manager Dave Contarino was the Guv's chief of staff prior to the prez effort. He is not expected to return to that post which is now filled by James Jimenez. Contarino is a longtime Dem consultant who owns a Santa Fe title company. Amanda Cooper, deputy campaign manager, will now ease over to the US Senate campaign of her father, Rep. Tom Udall.

And for all you Guv staffers who enjoyed a relaxed atmosphere while the boss was on the road, the party is over. As Bill said yesterday, "I'm Back!"

Thanks to Jim Baca for today's Big Bill photo.

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• RICHARDSON WITHDREW FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AT 1 P.M. TODAY AT A ROUNDHOUSE RALLY IN SANTA FE

• THE GOVERNOR ENDED SPECULATION THAT HE MIGHT RUN FOR THE OPEN US SENATE SEAT BY ENDORSING REP. TOM UDALL

• HERE IS VIDEO OF THE SPEECH

Big Bill's Big dream is dead, buried on the frigid plains of Iowa and the snowy slopes of New Hampshire. Its final resting place is at the end of the Old Santa Fe Trail where the Merry Roundhouse is situated and from which the New Mexico Governor is expected today at 1 p.m. to pull down the final curtain on his year long long-shot bid and get back to work on the state of the state, not the nation.

History will record that Governor Richardson was the first New Mexican to make a serious run for the White House by raising $20 million and winning a spot in the national TV debates. But it will also record that his quixotic campaign failed to catch fire, with single digit finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire and a message that proved to have only limited appeal. The combination was lethal, drying up the mother's milk of politics--money.

New York Times coverage is here. ABQ Journal coverage is here.

Bill's candidacy never had very high expectations so the early end is not crushing; his ego is probably hurting more than any of his supporters which gives rise to speculation on how the Governor's temperament will impact the 30 day Legislative session set to start January 15th.

"I wonder if he will be upset and whether a streak of frustration will take hold," wondered aloud NM TV news dean Dick Knipfing. It was the question on the lips of many in the political community.

"The Senate is already showing signs that they are ready to battle with the Governor. His pet proposal is his health care plan, but there will be several competing proposals. For a short session, there is a lot of pressure and if the Guv is in a foul mood because of his presidential fortunes, things could get uglier than we already expect," Said one veteran of the state capitol.

JENNINGS NEXT PRO TEM?
Sen. Tim Jennings
Playing into that narrative was the news coming to us that Roswell State Senator Tim Jennings appears to be having success in lining up the votes to become the new Senate president pro tem, replacing the late Ben Altamirano.

"Tim has been making phone calls to Senators. He is the only one really campaigning for the position. I believe he will get it," said one liberal Democratic Senator who says he respects the conservative lawmaker.

Jennings, 57, has battled repeatedly with Big Bill. Look at this Jennings quote from the Senate floor in 2004: “I am going to tell you that if this body and this Legislature doesn’t stand up on its feet and defend this institution, this governor is going to take us straight to hell.”

Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez will retain the key powers in the upper chamber. With Jennings as pro tem, the Guv would face two strong and independent Senate leaders. Senate Democats caucus Friday morning at the capitol at which time they will select a new pro tem.

BILL'S FUTURE

Back on the Big Bill beat, the recriminations over his failed presidential candidacy were relatively mild, probably because of the low expectations for success. Scuttlebutt focused more on what will be rather than what was. For example, will he endorse Obama or Clinton before the race is settled? (Probably not.) Will he try to patch things up with Hillary, who his campaign scorned in Iowa? (Maybe, but with little chance of success.)

The Guv's chances for the veep slot are seen as slim. His poor showing in the early primary states do not instill confidence that he would add much to the national ticket. The highest hope would seem to be for secretary of state, but only if Obama were to win the White House. However, chances for that may have taken a hit because of his poor prez showing. He can improve them by getting out and working hard for the eventual Dem nominee. So, while Bill will probably be seen around the Roundhouse quite a bit for the next 30 days, after that expect him to take flight again.

THAT ONE--AGAIN?

The rumors that he could seek the US Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici just won't die, despite there being no evidence that the Guv is at all interested. With his prez withdrawal, the speculation will pick up steam.

Democratic strategists in Washington can see immediate benefits if Bill did seek the Senate chair--he would be a more secure choice than likely nominee Tom Udall, giving them a better chance of increasing their majority. They also think that Bill's presence at the top of the NM ticket would make the state much more likely to go for the Dem presidential nominee, giving them the state's five electoral votes. But a Senate run seems to be as much of a dream as Bill's prez run turns out to be. February 12 is filing day.

If anyone was ready to form a "Richardson for Senate Committee,"it was Light Guv Diane Denish. Her hopes of taking over the governorship by succession took a hit with Bill's fading prez fortunes. If Bill does stay around for the duration, he will be seeing a lot of Lady Di in the 2009 headlines as she gears up for a 2010 Guv run. Can the duo share the spotlight?

FAVORITE SON?

Another unanswered question as we write to you late Wednesday is whether the Guv would try to become a "favorite son" candidate in NM's February 5 Dem caucus. The point would be to control our state's delegates to the national convention and use them as leverage in any intrigue that developed. But running as a favorite son might be more risky now that Hillary and Obama are fighting for every delegate they can find. Bill would quite likely finish first, but might not show as well as he would like. No matter what, Bill's name will appear on the ballot. It is too late to take it off.

REQUIEM FOR A HEAVYWEIGHT

Richardson, 60, is probably smarting plenty from the rejection of his candidacy, but by getting out of the race now, he avoids becoming lampooned as a guy who can't read the writing on the wall. He wasn't able to attract many votes, but he did represent the state with pride and an avuncular presence that wore well. The proof of his popularity in his home state was the amazing amount of money he was able to raise here.

Don't count on the Richardson roller-coaster to stay parked for long. He enjoys the ride way too much, and so do we.

THE BOTTOM LINES

First, it was State House Minority Whip Dan Foley getting some good news--that charges of disorderly conduct and obstructing a police officer were being dismissed. Now, the other half of the controversial duo of Roswell lawmakers--GOP State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair--has also won a court battle, with charges against him also being dismissed. The bad news for the pair is that they have each drawn a strong opponent in the June 2008 primary...

From the Governor's office: "Governor Richardson today announced the appointment of Howie Morales, Ph.D. to represent state Senate District 28. His appointment fills the vacancy left by the passing of Senate Pro-Tem Ben Altamirano, who held the District 28 seat for more than thirty years. Mr. Morales has served as Grant County Clerk since 2005.

“Howie Morales has worked closely with Senator Altamirano,” said Governor Richardson. “I am confident that he will follow in Benny’s footsteps and serve the constituents of Grant, Catron and Socorro counties with the same compassion and commitment.”

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The AP says Bill Richardson will end his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The decision follows a 5% showing in the New Hampshire primary and a 2% showing in the Iowa caucuses. Also, the campaign had run out of money. The wire service says a formal annoucement is expected Thursday.

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The voters of New Hampshire smashed the crystal balls, pushed away the pollsters and have given us a presidential race hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot at high noon on the Fourth of July. What was supposed to be a Barack blowout turned into a nail-biter and an improbable win going to Hillary, aka, the Comeback Queen. As Dan Rather would say, Hillary's win was as thin as November ice--only two points--but it was enough to reverse fragile campaign psychology and propel her back into the game and on to "Super Duper Tuesday" February 5th. But first our dynamic duo will stop in Nevada on the 19th and South Carolina on the 26th. John Edwards may ride in the rump seat and Big Bill, if he stays in this thing, will have to hitchhike to Reno. His bank book is just about out of pages.

How did so many go so wrong--the pollsters, that is. "Polling a primary is always difficult, but polling one where independent voters can vote for either a Democrat or a Republican and can decide to do so on the day of the election makes it especially challenging," explained NM veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff, trying his best to give his brethren some cover.

Others, like Dem consultant Harry Pavlides, speculated that ethnic voting played a role in the huge difference between most of the polls and the eventual outcome. "There were voters who switched their minds when they drove up to the polling place, and I think many of them were motivated by race--uncertain whether they wanted to vote for a black candidate." He speculated.

Pavlides won't get points for being politically correct, but he had plenty of company in political circles who shared his theory about ethnic voting and also agreed that Granite State voters like to put some pebbles in the path of any frontrunner. Obama was squarely in their sights when the New Hampshire earth began to shake with his every step.

Unfortunately for Big Bill, the polls were only wrong when it came to Hill and Barack. They nailed it when they predicted a mid-single digit finish for the struggling New Mexican; he came in fourth with 5%, following a 2% fourth place showing last week in Iowa. Edwards grabbed 17% for third. Obama was at 37% and Hillary was doing her best not to gloat while bringing home her surprise 39% win.

On the Republican side, the race went from muddy to muddier, as 71 year old Arizona Senator John McCain beat up on former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, taking it 37% to 32%. Only months ago, McCain looked like roadkill from Catron County, making his victory all the more sweet. Whether it will sour in South Carolina, as it did in 2000, is the next question.

BILL'S LAST STAND?

From New Hampshire, Governor Bill, as he did after a crushing defeat in Iowa, vowed to take his campaign West to the January 19th Nevada caucus, (video here) but insiders told me they expect the Guv to meet with top campaign staff in Santa Fe this week where a withdrawal will be discussed. Getting out before the legislative session gets underway January 15th is a consideration. He could suffer a major prestige blow if he goes to Nevada and again finishes at or in the cellar. Also, as we said, money is key. He is obviously running out as he was not on New Hampshire TV in the closing days. What do you do in Vegas? Go around with a sandwich board on your back advertising your run?

The Alligators were also talking Tuesday night about another Big Bill problem--his diss of Hillary in Iowa when his supporters were told to take Obama as their second choice--something Bill denies, but not with much believability. The Clintonistas are enraged, meaning no veep slot with Hillary or secretary of state if she makes it to the White House. And wouldn't you know it. The Hillary horse came in last night and the Obama horse faded. Not good for the Guv.

Bill left New Hampshire for Santa Fe last night aboard a private jet. His top campaign staff also came back to mull over the next move. If the stuff they are smoking isn't too strong, they will urge Bill to pull the plug on this thing quick because it's looking like dirty bathtub water.

Insiders say they would expect Richardson to withdraw with a bang, not a whimper, and stage a final campaign rally where his supporters could let out one last cheer and where some would argue he should run for the US senate seat or as a favorite son in the February 5th Dem caucus. Others would simply sigh in relief that they won't be getting hit up for any more campaign cash. Stay tuned.

DOMENICI AND DARREN
Pete's letter
He's done it again. NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici, setting aside tradition as he did in 1998, has endorsed Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White for the GOP nomination for the US House seat being vacated by Rep. Heather Wilson who is seeking Domenici's Senate seat. Pete did it in a January 2 fundraising letter for Darren which reads in part: " I believe in Darren White and I will do everything I can to help him because Darren will be a strong Republican voice for New Mexico in Congress." (Read the whole letter by clicking on the image posted here.)

The news is another blow to ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro who is White's foe for the GOP nod and who also suffered a Domenici snub last month when the Senator hosted a fundraising reception for White on Capitol Hill.

In '98, Pete endorsed Wilson over several GOP foes when the congressional seat was opened up by the death of Republican Steve Schiff. That created a rift that has lasted to this day, but never slowed Wilson. Domenici was a powerful incumbent when he endorsed Wilson. He is now a lame-duck. But the White campaign was not shy about circulating the Domenici letter, taking advantage of his popularity within Republican circles and, more important, tapping into his donor base for campaign cash and squeezing Carraro out. Senator Joe looked for a fig leaf and came up with this: "It is apparent that he is not endorsing White over me, because he would have used my name, and we have supported each other over the years." Like we said, a fig leaf there. Domenici did not mention Joe's name because he didn't have to.

The next move insiders are awaiting is Domenici's decision on the Senate race. Will he endorse Heather Wilson over Rep. Steve Pearce? Most observers seem to think that is more a matter of when, not if.

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Here's the report on the Clinto and McCain victories in the New Hampshire GOP primary.

In the Dem contest, Big Bill is pulling about 5%. He is headed back to NM this evening. Sources tell me Richardson will weigh getting out of the race while in Santa Fe. The legislative session starts January 15th. The Nevada caucuses are scheduled for January 19th.

Barack & Bill
Obama mania is set to sweep over the New Hampshire primary today and it could soon be coming to New Mexico. There's no reason to think the Illinois senator will not make his presence known here for the Feb. 5 Democratic caucuses, even if Big Bill stays in the race and declares himself a "favorite son" candidate for the state's national Democratic convention delegates. As part of "Super Duper Tuesday" the NM Dem caucus may be too important for Obama to cede to Bill as he moves to put the nomination away that day and Hillary moves to stop him. And it would seem activist Dems would relish a chance to help decide the Dem nomination and many could set aside plans to vote for Bill in favor of taking part in the main event.

It won't take much for Obama and Hillary to let you know they are around. Just $300,000 will buy a commanding 10 day presence on the TV airwaves here, chicken feed compared to what it costs in big states like California which will also be holding a primary that day.

As for Bill, he will have a decision to make. Does he get out of the Prez race after the January 19th Nevada caucuses, but declare himself a favorite son candidate and beseech NM Dems to vote for him so he can command the state's delegates at the Denver nominating convention? Or, does he pull out of the race completely, including New Mexico, and throw his support behind Barack or Hillary, or just stay neutral? Or, in the most unlikely scenario, does he stay in the race for the Feb. 5th derby, despite having no money to put up TV ads in the far-flung states and risk looking weak in the eyes of the nation and state?

Speaking of TV, Steve Terrell of the New Mexican, with the Guv in New Hampshire, reports that Bill has gone dark on New Hampshire TV. Also, insiders report four paid staffers for Senator Obama arrive in NM today.

OBAMA IN NEW MEXICO

Can you forgive us for overdosing on Obama mania and looking ahead to November? Thanks.

So what if Obama captures the Dem nod? What are the early indications on how he would play here? We put that question to veteran GOP consultant, lobbyist and political analyst Bruce Donisthorpe.

"There would be some ethnic voting based on Obama possibly being the first black President, but for all its diversity in presidential elections NM almost always ends up reflecting the national mood. 1976 was the only year since we achieved statehood in 1912 that New Mexicans voted for the loser of the popular vote. If Obama is still exciting the nation in November, the best guess is he will be exciting New Mexico. If he is in trouble nationally, expect the same here."

It is striking how our state, so different in make-up than the others, ends up being such an accurate bellwether in presidential contests. It's another of those quirks of our beloved La Politica.

TONIGHT ON YOUR BLOG

Yes, we will be here tonight, just like we were in 2004, to update the New Hampshire primary results. Shortly after 5 p.m., stuff will start coming in. Check us out for the latest on Bill and the rest of the gang. On Thursday, join us for the best political analysis in the West.

20% OR Bust

If a presidential candidate in the Dem Iowa caucuses must secure 15% of the vote in a precinct to obtain "viability," why is the requirement that a NM candidate must get 20% of the vote at his party's pre-primary convention so unfair? Well, maybe it isn't. One candidate is suing to restore the right of candidates denied a spot on the June primary ballot at their pre-primary conventions to get additional petition signatures to win a place on the ballot. Supporters of the 20% rule say it keeps out frivolous candidates and also strengthens the political parties by giving them an important role in winnowing the field to a manageable number that the public can study. Critics say it gives too much power to the insider power-brokers.

Pressure is being put on NM House Speaker Ben Lujan to support reinstating the petition option for ballot access. He told us last month he did not think it was necessary, but has recently softened his tone. That's because his son, Ben Ray Lujan, is seeking the Dem nod for the northern congressional seat and is heavily favored to win.

It would take a two-thirds vote by both the House and Senate for the petition option to be restored in time for the June primary. That alone may be enough to kill the proposal, giving the courts the final word. How about an alternative? Instead of making candidates earn 20% of the pre-primary delegates, lower the number to 15%. The parties would still have a major role in screening the final candidates, but also give underdog contenders a better chance of making the ballot. Just a thought...

BLOG REACT

Monday's blog speculating that the odds have grown that Big Bill will finish out his gubernatorial term brought some varied and intense reaction. An anonymous Rio Rancho reader wrote:

As your blog today said, looks like Big Bill will finish out his term in NM after all (did we REALLY think otherwise?). But one must ask—if the Land of Enchantment is running so well with him gone for so long, why do we need him back?

But reader Rene Paradis urged Bill to hang in there.

If Obama or Clinton want Hispanic votes, and Richardson can pull in outrageously large numbers of votes from southwestern states, they may well want him for the VP ticket. I think it's too soon for him to drop out.

AROUND HERE

We were busy bees around here Monday as the Interior Department put an end to a controversial public affairs issue we had a role in. The federal agency declared that the proposal by Jemez Pueblo and Santa Fe developer Gerald Peters to build an off-reservation casino at Anthony, NM is dead. We did public relations for those opposed to the off-reservation plan. The feds said the developer's assertion that the casino would provide economic development for the pueblo didn't make sense. The casino would be nearly 300 miles away from Jemez, meaning few pueblo members would be employed at the casino. It was a spirited and multi-year battle. We enjoyed making new friends in the south and, of course, refreshing our knowledge of Southern NM politics.

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Here's the report on the McCain victory in the New Hampshire GOP primary.

In the Dem contest, Big Bill is pulling about 5% in the early going.

Nothing tarnishes a political resume like defeat, even one as long and as storied as that of our own Big Bill. With Iowa rejecting his presidential candidacy and New Hampshire poised to do the same, the Alligators are saying the odds of Richardson completing his term as governor here have gone way up. They have plenty of evidence to back them up.

It's always been assumed by the national media and pundits that Richardson was not seriously seeking the Dem Prez nod, but lobbying for the veep slot or secretary of state, but in the wake of a 2% showing in Iowa, the Washington Post's David Broder summed up the current conventional wisdom regarding Bill and the veep speculation.

"Bill Richardson is hanging on, but with only a modest hope of securing second place on the ticket."

Either Clinton or Obama--the likely winners of the nomination--are seen, for obvious reasons, as the least likely to add a Hispanic Dem to the ticket. That leaves the secretary of state possibility, but as ABC's George Stephanopoulos pointed out this weekend, Richardson has hit the rocks with the Clinton camp.

But I've got to tell you, right now, the Clinton campaign and the Clintons themselves are livid at Governor Bill Richardson, because they believe he made these deals with Barack Obama in the Iowa caucuses to throw his support in the places where he wasn't viable to Barack Obama so he could stay in the race.

The Dem candidates did a weekend ABC debate in which Richardson turned in a servicable performance and praised candidates of "experience," presumably including Hillary as well as himself. But even if she warmed to him, waiting in the wings is former Sec. of State Madeline Albright, no friend of the Guv and who insiders expect would vigorously fight any move to name him the nation's top diplomat.

If Obama is elected president, he will be presenting an entirely new face and approach to American foreign policy. Would an old-hand like Richardson fit in? Again, competition would be fierce. That 2% showing doesn't give Bill much leverage.

SENATE SPECULATION

Richardson has been near contemptuous of those who suggest he seek the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici, but the post might not look so beneath him now that he has been handed his first primary defeat and is on the cusp of his second. Rep. Tom Udall, the likely Dem US Senate nominee, was up in Iowa for the caucuses, keeping a close watch on Bill. Don't think he wasn't wondering about what a wounded Richardson could do. Is it unimaginable that the Guv would go for Senate now that Udall is so far into the run? Call it a long-shot, but so was the Guv's presidential run.

Not a few political insiders can be heard saying that Richardson's rejection of a Senate bid may stand as the biggest mistake of his political career. A Senate seat would give him the national profile he yearns for and would keep him from the national political oblivion he is headed for if he ends up empty handed in the job hunting sweepstakes. The filing deadline for the Senate seat is Feb. 12.

GETTING OUT

The Governor is being advised not to prolong the inevitable and risk looking like Harold_Stassen. He can get away with staying the Prez race until the Nevada caucus January 19, giving his candidacy a test-run in a Western state, not that the results are going to be any different there. If he stays in after that, the New Mexican public will start to turn on him, egged on by state R's who will ask why he is continuing a hopeless bid while there is a Legislative session underway.

Bill Richardson has done just about all you can do in political life, and done it well. Now he must do the one thing the political gods demand of all their subjects--learn to lose.

MACHINE CRACKING?
Sen. Adair
There are cracks in the political machine that has kept two of New Mexico's most controversial lawmakers in power. Word comes to us that Rory McMinn, a former NM Public Regulation Commissioner and two term Republican member of the Chaves County Commission, will challenge State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair for the GOP state senate nomination in the June primary. Adair now joins his chief Chaves county ally, State House Minority Whip Dan Foley, also of Roswell, in facing significant primary opposition. Foley will square off against retired FBI agent Dennis Kintigh.

Foley and Adair have had many controversies and conflicts over the years, but their political skills have kept them in power. But Foley's arrest on disorderly conduct charges--even though the charges were dismissed--seems to have weakened the duo and attracted strong opponents. Those foes will have to be prepared to attack, as Adair and Foley specialize in hard-hitting negative politics. McMinn, 61, and an oil and gas investor, says he is ready for the game.

"Rod Adair thinks he is the czar of Chaves County and he lets any candidate who wants to run think that they have to go through him. I do not like Tammany Hall politics. I despise that type of politics. There's a public service aspect to this that seems to be missing with some of the incumbents here," McMinn told me.

Adair, first elected in '96, and Foley will have to muster all the money and political acumen they can. There is a yearning for change in the strife-torn county and the McMinn and Kintigh candidacies are its harbingers.

MILLER MULLS

Remember Carol Miller? Not very fondly if you are a northern NM Democrat, but fondly if you are NM Green. The 61 year old says she is again thinking about running. She would need to collect nearly 6,000 petition signatures to launch an independent run for the northern NM congressional seat. She did that back in 1997, garnering 17% of the vote and as a result a Republican--Bill Redmond--defeated ethically challenged Democrat Eric Serna. that's the first and only time a Dem has lost the heavily D district.

The seat is now being vacated by Tom Udall who is seeking the Dem nod for US Senate. Could Miller cause the Dems to lose the seat again? Not likely. Rival Dems would like to make front-runner Ben Ray Lujan into another Eric Serna, and are looking at Serna's ties to the younger Lujan who is a member of the NM Public Regulation Commission. But Serna had decades of baggage; the young Lujan, son of the powerful House speaker, has none. But If Miller does launch a third party bid, Republican Marco Gonzales, the likely GOP nominee for the seat, may want to call Bill Redmond for a history lesson.

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