Governor Martinez has unleashed the weapons of political war against Dem Senate leaders Michael Sanchez and Tim Jennings, but it may fall into the category of "Be careful what you wish for, Susana."

Former GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. of all people was first out of the gate with a warning to the Governor, arguing in a widely read op-ed piece that dethroning Jennings as Senate President Pro Tem would move the Senate to the "left." He's supporting Jennings and openly chastising Martinez's political consultants, saying they need to "have their wings clipped."

So what's Harvey getting at? Well, Jennings was made pro tem by getting all the Senate Republicans to vote for him, along with a handful of Dems. If he loses, capital observers say that coalition probably goes away and the position reverts to symbolic as it has often been in the past. That would make it even harder for Susana to persuade the Senate to treat her program kindly.

And what if Majority Leader Sanchez were to lose his powerful post? The wall-leaners predict chaos, but what would emerge would probably not be favorable to the Governor.

Many Senators are mentioned as possible Sanchez replacements, but one of the most intriguing bandied about is ABQ Dem State Senator Linda Lopez, chair of the powerful Rules Committee. Putting a Hispanic female majority leader against the first female Hispanic governor makes a lot of political sense--if Lopez could convince the caucus she has the right stuff.

So even if Susana were to prevail against both Sanchez and Jennings it is highly improbable the political landscape would bend in her favor. In fact, it's more likely to go even further against her.

And not to get ahead of ourselves, most independent observers say Sanchez and Jennings still hold the edge in their re-election battles.

ANOTHER "WHAT IF..."


Another scenario getting attention in the inner sanctums of La Politica is total victory against Martinez--both Jennings and Sanchez win and the Dems picking up a couple of seats in the state House. From the Gator pond:

"It may sound far-fetched but this campaign has been so ugly, that you could see something down the road, like a Legislature that tries to override some of this Governor's vetoes. The campaign has been that alienating. 

It would take 28 votes in the 42 member Senate to override a veto and 47 votes in the 70 member House. If the Dems win, their strategy could be to send Susana bills to veto and then shoot for the override. She would be forced to hold her Republican ranks each and every time. Some could fold if they have tight races this year and then try to appease the Democrats. 

Don't say it couldn't happen. Look at former Republican Chairman Yates--he is sending a signal it is okay to oppose the Governor's political operation and that could have an impact. 

As for the state GOP bolting from their own Governor, remember 2002? We do. That's when the Legislature--including the Republicans--called themselves into extraordinary session to override his veto of the state budget.

There is a deep split forming in the New Mexican Republican Party over the conduct of this election. Only the healing salve known as victory will seal it up.

THE FINAL DEBATE

Heather Wilson performed masterfully again and Martin Heinrich was no slouch when the two met in their final televised debate on KOB-TV Thursday night (Full debate is here). So why does Heinrich continue to hold a solid lead in the polls? Well, Wilson has lost her audience. Unlike 1998, when she was elected to the ABQ House seat, the Republican Senate hopeful is now talking to a much more liberal electorate. Her service in the Bush years is a yoke around her neck.

For example, Wilson tried to wiggle out of her long ago support of "privatization" of Social Security saying today that at one time she was for what she calls "personalization." Say what?

And she repeatedly said Heinrich did "not understand" how Social Security was budgeted for in Washington, but this is the fella who cut a Social Security ad in 2010 that was so devastating that it sent Republican Jon Barela to his political grave when he failed to reject the privatization charge.

In their final confrontation Heinrich kept returning to Social Security and Medicare, making Heather dig out of the hole the Ryan budget has created for her. She did yeoman's work with her shovel, but being on the defense is not her style.

Wilson slammed the ball out of the park as she did in the last debate when she placed the loss of Los Alamos Labs jobs on the Heinrich watch. And she gets you out of your seat when she talks of New Mexico's "unique contribution" to national security and why our federal funding should be preserved. But that's a slice of the electorate, while Heinrich hogs most of the pie.

He slam dunks with clean energy, Social Security, Medicare and a balanced approach to a balanced budget. Those are the top of the mind issues of the 21st century state electorate. Not to say he does poorly on Heather's national security turf. He doesn't, pointing out that he saved the 1,000 jobs of the Kirtland Air Force Base Tacos, even as Wilson charges he could not preserve their fighter mission. Still, jobs are jobs.

HARRY'S AUTOPSY

Harry Pavlides

Veteran Dem political analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides came with some of the best analysis we've seen on why Heinrich is heavily favored to win the open United States Senate seat November 6 and replace retiring Senator Jeff Bingaman:

"Joe, we both agree that Wilson is speaking to another time and a conservative/moderate electorate that is no longer around--except for San Juan County, the south and the east. She argued well in the KOB debate--but she argued the wrong points--and that's why she lost and that's why she is going to lose this election. 

She is out of touch with the majority of voters. Her message did not play well with the state's university communities, in Santa Fe or in Bernalillo County which is much more liberal than when she represented it. 

Heather's last election was the 2008 Republican Senate primary when she lost to conservative Steve Pearce. That defeat seems to have kept her in the conservative corner too long. If this were 2002, she may have won the debate and the election, but it's not.

Heinrich has been boring in these debates, but he talked about the right issues for New Mexico--and that played well in the cities, and his Social Security stance even played well in places like Roswell. He is not a flashy speaker, but he is believable. I'm not saying they don't believe her, but they trust him.

For example, in the 2010 election he stuck with his personal liberal agenda and held on to his congressional seat when many others were losing theirs in a conservative sweep. For that reason, voters believe and trust him. Again, I'm not saying Wilson did not do well. She did very well--but with all the wrong issues.

Thanks, Harry. We think you pretty much nailed it to the wall.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Just one full week to go in Campaign '12. Over the weekend the mailboxes will bulge with final days hit literature and on Sunday the ABQ Journal will release its final poll. We'll be back here Monday-- sooner if events merit--to keep you up to date.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Thanks for stopping by this week.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

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How's this for loyalty? Dona Ana County State Rep. Andy Nunez sticks with Governor Martinez through thick and thin, loudly advocating for her bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants and opposing the election of Ben Lujan as speaker of the state House. He even switched from Democrat to independent because he was so upset with his Democratic party. So what does the Reform NM Now PAC led by the Guv's political consultant do? They send out this attack ad against Nunez who is running as an independent in a three way race to retain his seat. Andy must be thinking.."With friends like these...."

And that's not Andy's only problem. The Patriot Majority PAC--working to elect Dems--has cut radio ads blasting Nunez for abandoning Dona Ana Democrats. Andy is getting it coming and going.

The Dems say they are starting to feel good about their candidate--Felipe Archuleta--while the R's are uniting behind Mike Tellez who previously sought the Nunez seat (Archuleta has also been attacked by Reform NM as they try to consolidate the GOP vote for Tellez).

Nunez, 76, might have thought Susana and the R's would come to his rescue as a reward for his work on their behalf, but maybe that old adage about Washington applies to Susana's Santa Fe--if you want a friend, get a dog.

A TWO FER?

Dems are hoping that they not only get the Nunez seat back in their column but they are saying their hopes are on the rise to defeat Dona Ana GOP freshman State Rep. Terry McMillan. Polling making the rounds says Dem Joanne Ferrary has a shot at the upset. More on the race here.

If the D's come out of Dona Ana with a two seat pick-up their chances of losing control of the state House would plunge. The current breakdown is 36 Dems, 33 R's and Nunez the independent.

DENISH FOR D'ANTONIO

Also from Dona Ana, former Lt. Governor Diane Denish is being heard on phone lines there touting Dem Dona Ana District Attorney candidate Mark D'Antonio. He is challenging Republican District Attorney and good friend of Governor Susana Amy Orlando. Denish says in her robocall that D'Antonio would be an "independent" DA. The Reform NM PAC is helping Orlando, even though the race has nothing to do with the Legislature

YATES BLASTS JAY

Jennings & Pirtle (Roswell Record)

Former New Mexico GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. comes with an op-ed in support of Dem Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings and in the process says it's time for someone to clip the wings of Jay McCleskey, the controversial political consultant who has been given carte blanche by Governor Martinez and who heads the Reform NM Now PAC that is conducting highly negative campaigns against Dems across the state.

Yates, of the prominent SE NM oil family, says:

I believe Tim Jennings’ presence in the New Mexico Senate is critical.  I believe that without him the New Mexico Senate is likely to move further to the left, and that this may place reform beyond our reach.  Thus, I support Tim Jennings, a Democrat, for the New Mexico Senate.

This has been a vicious campaign season. While I don’t mind truthful, negative ads, I disdain ads which are carried by half-truth rather than honesty.  I do not like dishonest ads directed at Republicans. I, also, do not like dishonest ads directed at Democrats. These dishonest ads are pushed by political operatives from both parties. This year Jennings is the target of two of the most prominent Republican practitioners of the half- truth. I believe the state would be well served if both parties severely clipped the wings of such political operatives. 

The second operative Harvey is referencing is none other than outgoing Roswell GOP State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair, a practiconer of the dark campaign arts.

Our latest intelligence on Jennings who is being challenged by Republican Cliff Pirtle has him looking pretty good for re-election, but there is no certainty. That weekend rally for Pirtle conducted by Martinez drew only a handful and that raised the hopes of Jennings supporters, but so much money has been pumped in there against him by the Guv's forces that he can't let up.

So who is going to clip Jay's wings and put his title of "Shadow Governor" to rest? Well, if he is able to take out Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez in Belen probably no one. You will hear the crowing from Susana and company from Ruidoso to Rio Arriba--some of it justified. If however, both Sanchez and Jennings survive and the Dems also retain control of the House there could be a move by other prominent R's like Yates to hand the Governor some shears and tell her to start clipping Jay's wings. The price of not doing some clipping could be financial support for her re-election campaign and/or less support in the halls of the Legislature.

NUMBERS TALK

We didn't have the exact numbers when blogging about voter turnout Wednesday. Let's take a closer look. In 2008, 71.8 percent or 833,365 of the 1,160,395 registered voters cast ballots. Not all of them voted in the presidential race which saw a turnout of 69.5 percent of those registered.

In 2012, there are 1,254,567 registered. If at least 850,000 vote--as our analysts expect--that would be a turnout of 68%--a decline from 2012 in terms of the percentage registered. Part of that would be caused by the bloating of the registration rolls due to a lack of purging and also a dip in turnout for the presidential race which went high because of Obama. To get to 71.8 percent of the registered we would have to hit 900,779 voters. Maybe we will.

ON THE TRAIL

We're fast moving to the phase of the campaign when the messaging starts hitting the brick wall and it becomes all about getting the vote out. Along those lines:

Ben Ray Luján, Democratic candidate in District Three, and Martin Heinrich, Democratic candidate for Senate, will attend early vote rallies in Las Vegas, Mora, and Taos during a tour of northern New Mexico on Saturday, October 27, 2012.  They will be joined by Senator Tom Udall in Las Vegas and Mora to encourage northern New Mexicans to cast their ballot during the early vote period.

And here's video of GOP Florida Senator Marc Rubio campaigning with GOP Senate candidate Heater Wilson and Governor Martinez in Mesilla in Dona Ana County on Wednesday.

And Senator John Kerry gave the Martin Heinrich campaign some star power.

SANCHEZ VS. CHAVEZ


The state political community is abuzz over our exclusive scientific poll this week that shows Dem Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez holding a very slim two point lead over Republican State Rep. David Chavez--48 to 46. Many Dems are urging a more aggressive response by Sanchez--and it's coming

Patriot Majority PAC comes with the blast of Chavez over his attendance record in the Legislature, saying he missed 18% of all the votes taken during his two year term. It seems pretty mild compared to the Reform NM charge that Sanchez is soft on child killers, but in a normal year it would be seen as pretty tough.

Meanwhile, supporters of Frank Otero who is challenging GOP State Rep. Alonzo Baldonado are hoping that the Sanchez-Chavez clash helps them. Their reasoning is that the Baldonado district overlaps much of the Senate district and that if Sanchez gets more voters to the polls it could help Otero. A long shot, perhaps, but a shot nonetheless.

MINIMUM WAGE

Opponents of a ballot measure that would raise the ABQ minimum wage from $7.50 to $8.50 an hour report they have campaign kitty approaching $180,000. We wonder if that is enough to defeat the measure in an election in which turnout is going to lean Dem. When the opponents lost their efforts to keep the measure off the ballot or conduct a special election over it, they lost a lot. The money they raised is nothing to sneeze at but in this economic environment not a few voters are going to look kindly on increasing the minimum. We''ll definitely be watching this one closely when we cover the returns on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM.

ONE TOUGH JOB


If you're a lobbyist or a pundit and your client asks you to predict the outcome of the state legislative races, you can get a quick case of heartburn fast. While the top of the state ballot--the federal offices--are all likely Dem--that is not the case at the state level. Here's an entertaining missive from one of those wall-leaners whose job is to make sense of it:

Anyone who thinks they can accurately predict the outcomes of all the state Senate and House races on November 6 is being naive. When you combine the various key factors of redistricting, a truck load of new candidate faces and personalities, the grass root efforts of the presidential and U.S. Congressional campaigns, the political activism of advisors and consultants, plus the unprecedented flow of enormous PAC money from all sides into swing races, it's just absolutely overwhelming to try and make accurate predictions unless you've got current, reliable, district specific polling data. 

There's fighting in the streets, fires are burning, cars are overturned and packs of dogs are controlling the low ground....

"Packs of dogs are controlling the low ground?" Oh yeah, now we're bloggin'....

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State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez is locked in a extremely close battle with GOP State Rep. David Chavez and is fighting for his political survival in one of the highest stakes legislative battles in state history. That news comes from our new poll of the race--the only independent public survey conducted in the must-watch contest.

In the scientific poll conducted Tuesday night by Manzano Strategies for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan, Sanchez leads Chavez by a mere two points--48% to 46%, with 6% undecided.

The poll was conducted by automatic phone calls among 227 likely voters in Senate District 29 and has a margin of error of 6.4%. The entire polling memo can be seen here.

Republican pollster Bruce Donisthorpe, who supervised the survey, says we are headed for a classic get-out-the-vote election as most voters appear to be decided. He added:

"Both candidates have high unfavorable ratings because of the immense amount of negative campaigning. Sanchez's favorable rating is 43% and his unfavorable rating 39%. Chavez has a 42% favorable rating and a 36% unfavorable. Perhaps some positive messages mixed in could have an impact in the race," he said.

The potential impact of the race on the body politic can't be overstated. A loss by Sanchez would be a major victory for the Governor and throw the Senate leadership into chaos, perhaps opening legislative doors for Martinez that have been firmly shut by Sanchez. However, a victory by Sanchez almost guarantees that Martinez will suffer major payback and none of her legislative program will get approved unless she agrees to major compromises.

POWER STRUGGLE SUPREME

Rep. Chavez

Sen. Sanchez

Hundreds of thousands of dollars have been spent by the political action committee led by Governor Martinez's chief political consultant in the effort to dethrone Sanchez. It is money that has put this race in play, but still not quite in the grasp of Chavez who is fighting to beat Sanchez in a Valencia County district that is 49% Democrat, 29% Republican and 21% independent and minor party.

Given those circumstances, Sanchez remains the favorite.

And the spending continues at a fierce pace, with the Dem friendly Patriot Majority fund beginning to attack Chavez as they fight to fend off Reform NM Now, the PAC run by Guv adviser Jay McCleksey.

Posted here today is the latest hit piece from Reform, accusing Senate President Pro Tem Jennings of being soft on child killers, Similar mail is being sent against Sanchez. Also, a hard-hitting TV ad that features Governor Martinez talking about her prosecution of the Baby Brianna case when she was a district attorney is in heavy rotation. The ad says Sanchez and Senate President Pro Tem Jennings have not voted for tough enough penalties for convicted child killers. "Sanchez and Jennings must go," the ad concludes.

Other findings from our exclusive poll: President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Sanchez Senate district 46% to 44%. Gary Johnson gets 7% with the remainder undecided. Obama's GOTV could help Sanchez.

Donisthorpe says a total of about 19,000 voters are expected to cast ballots in the Sanchez-Chavez race, so imagine the amount of money per vote that is being spent.

Democrats are breaking for Sanchez 64% to 31%. Republicans go for Chavez 71% to 22%. It's nearly a tie with independents. Sanchez scores 48% with them and Chavez gets 45%.

Hispanic voters favored Sanchez by a 59%-36% margin, not all that high for a Democratic candidate. Donisthorpe said the Republicans fielding a Hispanic opponent seems to have helped tighten the race.

Donisthorpe reports that Sanchez is winning among women 53% to 42% and Chavez leads among men 52% to 40%.

We're watching this important race very closely for you, committing financial resources to conduct polling and calling on the top political minds in the state to provide you with updates on the latest action. It's another reason why New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan is the #1 political web site--the state's must-read.

OUR HISTORY

We first conducted polling with Manzano Strategies and Donisthorpe in 2008. In every cycle they have delivered superior performance, accurately projecting the winners in all the major races surveyed or indicating when they are too close to call.

 DATELINE CLOVIS

Sen. Woods

In late July we released polling that indicated Governor Martinez suffered some damage apparently because of her interference in a GOP state Senate primary there. She supported Angie Spears, but she lost to Pat Woods. Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey--head of Reform NM Now PAC--was featured in a TV commercial by Woods and Woods was aggressively attacked by Jay. We detected some weakness in Martinez's Democratic numbers in the aftermath of that contest, but McCleskey associates Darren White and Adam Feldman took to their Twitter accounts to ridicule the polling saying the sample was to small.

Well, we take all our critics seriously so we went back to Curry County exclusively on October 2 and had Manzano Strategies and Republican Bruce Donisthorpe do 512 surveys by automatic phone to get a better picture. 193 of them were likely Dem voters so the margin of error for that subgroup is a reasonable 7%. Here's the complete polling memo on what we found and here is a summary:

An October survey of Clovis and the surrounding area shows the Governor’s approval ratings to be on the rebound in Curry County since we last polled in July. 

Manzano Strategies Polling surveyed Curry County and found the Governor with a healthy 64% favorable approval rating, while 18% had an unfavorable rating. About 18% of likely voters were unsure about the Governor.

Martinez's numbers are improving from the 51% we recorded in July. 78% of R voters gave her a favorable rating, but the Guv polls at 90% or better among Republicans in most other counties.

About 53% of Democratic voters in Curry gave the Guv favorable marks, but she polls in the 60s with Dem voters along the East Side.  However, Hispanic likely Democratic Hispanic voters gave her an unfavorable rating of 50%, while 21% were favorable. Could this foreshadow a crack in the Guv’s Hispanic ratings?  We shall see after this campaign in which Martinez has taken strong positions against leading Dem legislative candidates

In July, we wrote that the Governor’s approval rating had slipped about 20 points from October, 2011 and last July.  We focused on the hotly-contested GOP June Primary in which the Guv went all-in for her hand-picked prospective GOP State Senate candidate Angie Spears who lost to Rancher Pat Woods. We conclude that the divisive Clovis primary did indeed cost Martinez political capital and she is in recovery mode there. Her possible long term problem is lasting damage with Hispanic Democrats.

There you have it. We pride ourselves on presenting some of the most accurate polling in state history on this site. Our record in the major races speaks for itself.

Listening to both our fans and our critics--It's just one of the reasons why New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan sets the standard in state political coverage and why for years we've been the state's #1 political web site.

HEINRICH TV

Heinrich's latest TV ad is all sunshine and lollipops. The script:

Coming home from Washington almost every weekend keeps me focused on New Mexico’s priorities, and what’s important. Living up to the promises we’ve made to our soldiers. Taking care of seniors by protecting Social Security and Medicare. Educating our children and keeping college affordable. Working for the middle class, not corporations.] We may all have different backgrounds, but we all share New Mexico values and priorities. I’m Martin Heinrich and I approve this message, for all of us. 

Heinrich's voice seems a bit more high-pitched than usual. Maybe they speeded up the spot a bit to fit the time or Heinrich is just getting giddy over the fact that he still leads Republcian Heather Wilson.

As for Heather's ad in which the former chairman of Heinrich's military affairs commission says he will vote for Wilson, the Santa Fe Reporter adds:

A retired US Air Force Colonel denies any financial motivation behind his endorsement of  Wilson. In Jan. 1996, Colonel Gary Van Valin says, he became the "100-percent owner" of Albuquerque-based consulting firm, Keystone International Inc., after purchasing the company from Wilson, who founded it in 1991. "I don't think that's something that you need to know," Van Valin responds when asked about the cost of the purchase. "It has been published in a paper in the past, but I don't think you need to know that."

We know. We're surprised Heather got this sloppy, but it's late in the game and she's behind two touchdowns. This stuff happens when you start throwing long.

RUBIO AND KERRY HERE

Sen. Rubio

The state campaign trail gets two big name US Senators today:

Marco Rubio of Florida and John Kerry of Massachusetts, will try today to influence New Mexico's Senate race. Rubio will campaign in Mesilla and Albuquerque for Republican Wilson. Kerry will be in Santa Fe for an appearance and fundraiser with Heinrich...

Rubio, 41,...was behind Florida's Republican governor, Charlie Crist, by double digits in 2010 early in their race for the Senate. But Rubio caught fire with voters, and Crist ended up running a losing campaign as an independent. Kerry, 68, was the Democratic candidate for president in 2004..

Hey, Rubio and Kerry, we might need your help with federal funding for our national labs and other government funding, so enjoy yourselves and remember us when you are cruising the Potomac.

SUSANA WITH MITT

The Guv spoke to one of the largest crowds of her political career Tuesday night near Denver. Kid Rock was one of the draws so all 10,000 seats in the amphitheatre were filled. Martinez was one of those warming up the charged up crowd. Her complete speech is  here.

OX GOES NEGATIVE

Attorney Chris "Ox" Ocksrider is going negative. He's the Republican facing Democrat and Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya for an ABQ area seat on the Public Regulation Commission. Ox plows ahead with this TV spot. But there doesn't seem to be an active investigation into the assessor's office. The FBI questioned several employees in May--one of whom was fired by Montoya--but reported nothing. They don't announce when they end an investigation, but this one never really appeared to get off the ground.

The paper reported that the FBI was looking into the relationship between Montoya and property tax consultant and Dem State Senator Tim Eichenberg. He calls the FBI story "nonsense."

Meanwhile, Montoya has come with her own TV spot that touts some big name Dem endorsements of her, including that of PRC Commissioner Jason Marks, the Dem she hopes to replace.

NO PROMOTION, PLEASE

Thanks, but no thanks. So says ABQ Dem state Senate candidate Lisa Curtis to the Alligators and speculators who think she could be positioned for a run at the Guv's chair in 2014. The speculation is founded in solid numbers.

Curtis--who faces an uphill battle to retain the Senate seat she was appointed to fill in a heavy R district--recently bought $80,000 in TV time in an effort to hang on. That's an extraordinary amount of money to reach a small sliver of voters, but Curtis, a successful trial attorney, says don't read anything into it:

I just have a tough district. That is why I went up on TV.  I truly have no intention of running for Governor. I have a great job that I love, and four teenagers to get through college. I really can't fun for Governor, so I appreciate the thought process and understand it because I know it is a lot of money. But I actually see the Senate as a place where I have the ability to do great good and still do my regular job. I don't need a bigger target on my back... 

Hear that, Jay? She doesn't want a target on her back so you can put that anti-Lisa TV script back in the vault...for now.

While we believe Curtis when she says she is focused on the Senate race, there is a deep restlessness in the Democratic Party over who they will field to to take on Susana in 2014. We could hear her name again and many others following the Nov. 6 election.

BY THE NUMBERS

Don't put too much stock in talk that there's going to be a plunge in state voter turnout because the races at the top of the state ballot--president, senate and US House--are not that close. Several of our analysts point out that the national contest between Obama and Romney is exceptionally tight and while polling in New Mexico shows Obama well ahead here, average voters are not focused on that--they are focused on the national picture which gets much more exposure.

A prediction that has proven safe over the years is that turnout in the state for a presidential election will be healthy. Voting for President is in our DNA. We had a turnout of about 69.5% registered voters in 2008 for the presidential race and will get something similar this time. However, the voter rolls are not bring purged with regularity and that gives us more registered voters than there actually are and harder to increase the voter turnout percentage.

Here are the latest voting numbers from the AP:

Voter registration in New Mexico has increased about 5 percent since the last presidential election, and independent voters have grown the fastest, state election officials reported. Nearly 1.3 million people are registered and eligible to vote in the Nov. 6 general election...The number of New Mexicans who declined to affiliate with a political party when they registered to vote..has increased by 22 percent since Oct. 31, 2008...Independents account for 18 percent of voters, up from 15 percent in 2008 and 6 percent in 1984. Democrats continue to hold a big edge over Republicans in registration. About 48 percent of New Mexico's eligible voters are Democrats--down from 50 percent before the 2008 general election and from nearly 62 percent in 1984.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In our first blog draft Tuesday we did not include 1976 as a year in our lifetime when an incumbent president was defeated. That year President Ford lost to Jimmy Carter...

We know many of you want to vote early--if you haven't already--so here is the League of Women Voters on-line voting guide that profiles the candidates from the top to the bottom of the ballot.

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Is 2012 a 1976, 1980 or a 1992? Those are the three elections in our lifetime when an incumbent president was tossed out of the Oval Office. We thought about that upon the finish of last night's third and final presidential debate. Obama was given the win on points, but Romney's momentum from his fits big debater win has not faded away. The election seems close, but there is not the late October pall hanging over Obama that appeared when coffin nails were being brought out for Jimmy Carter in 1980 or George Bush in 1992. 

And even though New Mexico is no longer a swing state, we can't help but recount our history since statehood in 1912. Only once--in 1976--did New Mexico vote with the candidate who lost the national popular vote. This year we are trending again toward Obama. Will we be wrong for only the second time in our history? Or are we the bellwether that everyone has forgotten about?

As for last night's debate on foreign policy, we called on some of our longtime analysts to give us a quote or two. Dem pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides wasn't complaining about Obama's performance:

It was a case of "Me too, Mitt." He largely agreed with the President. His foreign policy seems to be do largely what Obama has done for the past four years and say it is different.

Former ABQ City Councilor Greg Payne, a former Republican recently turned independent, said:

With a few exceptions, both Obama and Romney were at their most presidential this debate. But while Romney may be under the impression that Syria is Iran's path to the sea (it isn't), his path to the White House winds its way through Ohio. Should Romney lose there in two weeks, remember the President pushing Mitt into full-blown stutter over the bailout vs. bankruptcy of the auto industry. That back and forth might not have had much impact in the Sun Belt - but the Rust Belt was listening.

Republican pollster Bruce Donisthorpe came with this:

I felt that each candidate got his respective licks in on the other candidate in debate. The President vigorously defended his actions as Commander-In-Chief and pointed out time and again where Romney went out of bounds. Romney had a built-in advantage this cycle because he won the first debate do decisively.  The President has had to play catch-up in the last two debates--which he did a good job of doing – but you rarely get a second chance to make a first impression. Romney’s core of supporters are energized about their candidate and this race has definitely tightened up nationwide.”

ABQ Journal Washington reporter Michael Coleman says this one was a snoozer:

No way foreign policy should be boring - especially in this world - but they managed to make it a snooze.

HEATHER HITS AGAIN

Now only days left to turn around the race for the US Senate and Heather Wilson is back on the air with her latest effort. It has Congressman Heinrich's former chairman of his military affairs advisory committee endorsing Heather because he says Heinrich voted for a budget bill that would lead to the loss of 20,000 federal jobs in the state.

Retired Colonel Gary Van Valin is the fella making the hit. The Heinrich campaign responded with a newspaper quote from Senator Bingaman:

When Sen. Domenici criticized Rep. Heinrich’s vote for the Budget Control Act, the Albuquerque Journal reported that Sen. “Bingaman, who also voted for the debt deal, along with Sen. Tom Udall, D-N.M., called Domenici’s criticism of Heinrich’s vote ‘a complete distortion.' 

And the Alligators were all over this one. For example:

If you want to know why Gary came out swinging at Martin, just look at the history of his current company Keystone International.  A defense subcontractor operation founded by Heather Wilson.   

And on the anti-Heather front, Las Cruces reader Greg Lennes comes with this:

Elliott Management is the biggest contributor to the Heather Wilson campaign--$29,413. Elliot Management. It was founded by billionaire hedge-fund manager Paul Singer. Mr. Singer said legislators should be focused on slashing obligations like Medicare. He wants to lift the retirement age or change the way benefits are calculated to lessen the cost. This is Heather Wilson's main financial supporter in her campaign.
 
MILES MAKES TRACKS

Here's a little surprise. Republican Court of Appeals Judge Miles Hanisee wins the endorsement of the Santa Fe New Mexican--the hometown newspaper of his Dem foe--ABQ District Court Judge Monica Zamora.

NEWSPAPER DEPRESSION

The New Mexican is one of many newspapers getting hammered by the long term decline in readership. Take a look at this shocker:

Robin Martin, owner of The Santa Fe New Mexican, announced plans to sell the company’s downtown office building and move employees to the printing facility on the southwestern edge of Santa Fe.“The mission statement of The New Mexican emphasizes that we are a company committed to informing the community and serving the public interest,” she said. “It says nothing about maintaining buildings."

The paper is asking $6.2 million for the Marcy St. building it has occupied since 1942.

We don't get Robin's defensive and unsentimental statement about having to sell the building. Downtown Santa Fe ain't downtown Cleveland--it is one of the most storied downtowns in America. Moving out of it is a very big deal. The offices of the New Mexican have been in or near the downtown since it was founded 158 years ago. The paper has been in Martin's family since 1948.

The New Mexican has been a leader in the Santa Fe historic preservation movement and it's own move out of the core can't be dismissed as a simple business decision. Not just a building is being vacated but an important part of the life of the nation's oldest capital city is passing into history. That deserves to be mourned.

BRIANNA POLITICS

The use of the notorious Baby Brianna abuse case in a Reform NM Now PAC TV ad against Dem State Senate Leaders Jennings and Sanchez brought this from Dem Senate candidate Ellen Wedum of Cloducroft:

It really makes me angry to read that Susana Martinez is using the death of that little baby Brianna Lopez to attack Democrats. She used this child's death for her own political gain in her 2010 election campaign too. 

It was Democrats in the Legislature that did the work to get SB 166, the "Baby Brianna Bill," passed in 2005. Democratic Senator Mary Jane Garcia of Las Cruces sponsored the bill.  Democratic representatives Joseph Cervantes and Ken Martinez (no relation to Susana) shepherded it through the House. Democratic governor Richardson signed it into law. 

Wedum is running against former Alamogordo Mayor Ron Griggs in the heavy GOP district.

The Baby Brianna ad is not available on the web. Governor Martinez, who prosecuted the case as Dona Ana County district attorney, is prominently featured in the ad which ends with the tag line, "Jennings and Sanchez must go."

So once again, Susana is all in on the Senate leadership. We're going to see just how deep her over 60% approval rating runs.

TRACKING SUSANA

The Guv heads to Colorado today to campaign for Romney outside of Denver. The polls there are tied. Then she comes back to NM for Wednesday campaign action as we learn in this campaign memo from the Heather campaign:

...Two rallies this Wednesday.  The first will be held in Mesilla, New Mexico, at the Mesilla Plaza. Special guests at the rally include: Heather Wilson, Governor Susana Martinez and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).  The rally will begin at 10 a.m. and will most likely be over by 11 a.m. The second rally will be held in Albuquerque at the Tiguex Park, 1800 Mountain Rd NW(across the street from the Natural History Museum).  The first speaker will begin about 3 p.m., and the rally will most likely last about an hour.  Special guests at the rally include: Heather Wilson, Governor Susana Martinez, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Albuquerque Mayor R.J. Berry, Janice Arnold Jones, Jeff Byrd and Matt Rush, who will serve as our MC.

REFORM NUKE SPOT

"Why go back to the Richardson way?" So says a new Reform NM TV hit ad. It scores Dem legislative candidates Emily Kane and Andrew Barreras, saying Kane received an appointment from the former Dem Governor and Barreras was awarded a state lease.

We don't have the fact check info yet, but we point out the ad because it shows how important those two legislative races are for future control of the New Mexico House, currently divided among 36 Dems, 33 R's and 1 independent.

Richardson left the Guv's office suffering from bad polls. His approval ratinng was in the 30's. It was a key reason for the election of GOP Governor Martinez. Can Bill still be toxic for Dem candidates?

Barreras is going for election in Valencia County and is being opposed by Kelly Fajardo. She is being nuked on the radio by the Patriot Majority PAC for being a Tea Pary Adherent. Kane is running in the ABQ NE Heights against attorney Chris Saucedo.

Reform NM, run by Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey is so flush with cash that it is using expensive TV spots to target several thousand voters. The ads go to almost the entire state.

MARY JANE RADIO HIT

It's not her role in the Baby Brianna case that is being talked about in the campaign of veteran Dem Senator Mary Jane Garcia. It's this radio ad from Lee Cotter, her Republican foe, blasting her for apparent violations of campaign law following this news:

The secretary of state imposed a $1,200 fine on Democratic state Sen. Mary Jane Garcia of Doña Ana, after finding a dozen possible violations of campaign reporting law. The notice indicated that Secretary of State Dianna Duran had looked at allegations brought up by a treasurer for Garcia's Republican challenger, Lee Cotter. Cotter and Garcia are vying for the District 36 Senate seat in the Nov. 6 election. Garcia said that she hadn't yet seen the notice, but she would comply with Duran's decision, as she had previously stated. "Whatever determination she came up with, I will correct," Garcia said. "I don't want it to distract from my campaign."

Garcia, 75, is still favored for re-election, but redistricting gave the Republicans a bit more stroke there so election watchers will stay tuned.

MARKS ON TWO

We don't think constitutional amendment 2 that calls for more qualifications for state Public Regulation Commissioner should get your "yes" vote because it doesn't specify just what qualifications they should have and leaves it up to the Legislature. Dem PRC Commissioner Jason Marks disagrees:

Concerns have been raised that C.A. 2 does not specify what the educational or professional qualifications for PRC commissioners will be. This is intentional. Putting detailed language identifying the specific degrees, occupational qualifications, or combinations thereof into the Constitution would not only be awkward, it would lock-in whatever was done this year for a very long time. By providing the authority in the Constitution, but leaving the details for the Legislature, the door is open for errors and omissions to be fixed and, more importantly, for the minimum qualifications to increase over time or change as the jurisdiction of the PRC evolves..." 

Good point, Jason, but by leaving it up to the Legislature to increase the qualifications, you might get nothing at all.

DISGRACE, DEFEAT, DEATH

Soon-to-be retired Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman joked about end of his 30 year career recently:

When I was leaving the Senate one of the wall-leaners said the only way someone leaves the Senate is becasue of one of the three D's---Disgrace, defeat or death. He said I've escaped all three!

Bingaman noted that he still has a couple of months to go before the three D's are defeated for sure.

 A PAIR FOR PRC

Karen Montoya & Valerie Espinoza

Are these two women New Mexico's next Public Regulation Commissioners? Well, for sure Santa Fe County Clerk Valerie Espinoza is. No Republican is running against her for the northern PRC seat.

Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya does have GOP opposition in the form of Republican attorney Chris Ocksrider, but the district is currently represented by Dem Jason Marks and Montoya has the edge.

By the way, if Montoya and Espinoza are both winners they will join Commissioner Theresa Becenti-Aguilar, making a woman majority on the five member PRC. Would that be a first for the PRC? We think so.

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Jennings & Sanchez

With the major races at the top of the ballot all but settled, all eyes in these final two weeks of Campaign 2012 will be glued on the historic drama playing out in the battle for control of the New Mexican Legislature.

We say historic without reservation, as our media Alligators now confirm that the political action committee being run by Governor Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey has purchased over $335,000 in TV time--most of which will be used to attack Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings and Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez. Just about all the TV cash is coming from out-of-state GOP DC interests and eclipses the $200,000 we first reported Reform was buying.

No sitting Governor has so directly gone after the Senate leadership. A victory against either leader could bolster her strength and legislative program in Santa Fe. A defeat would most certainly bring out the long knives against her and McCleskey. Most important, it would bring Martinez's legislative program--already on a slow boat to China--to a screeching halt for the remaining two years of her term and perhaps leave her more vulnerable to a Dem re-election challenge in 2014.

But it's not as though Jennings and Sanchez are entirely on the defensive. The attacks on them have awakened the Democratic base and groups associated with it--labor unions, teachers, the Obama campaign--are pulling out all the stops to ensure their survival. That the campaign polling in both Senate districts shows both men to be in tough races only heightens the sense of drama and history.

Top political professionals here and in Washington see Jennings as more endangered than Sanchez, given that his district is more Republican leaning. They say Jennings must continue to work to pry Republican votes loose because the district's "performance" rating is over 55% R.

Jennings has received the endorsement of a number of influential Roswell Republicans but does that mean the split will prevail in the grassroots of the GOP? If it doesn't, Jennings could come up short.

THE JENNINGS CHALLENGE

The heart of the Democratic response will unfold in the final two weeks, with anticipation building over how nearly $800,000 from the Patriot Majority PAC--funded mainly by labor unions-- will be deployed.

My Senior Alligators--no juniors allowed on this one--tell me that veteran Dem consultants Amanda Cooper and Dave Contarino--engineers of Big Bill's Guv campaigns--are spearheading the strategy for Patriot. As with McCleskey who now must deliver, so must Cooper and Contarino. Neither side can complain that they did not have enough cash. They have too much of it.

We have the first TV ad from Patriot Majority. It refers to Reform NM as "a special interest super PAC attacking women candidates." It adds "...Republicans in Congress are trying to deny women and families critical health care services. Don't let them do it here. To stop them...please look down the entire ballot and vote Democrat for Legislature..."

This spot does not get directly into the contested Senate races of Jennings and Sanchez but concentrates on six GOP House candidates who the spot labels extreme. They include ABQ GOP State Reps. Conrad James, Nate Gentry and Rep. David Chavez, the opponent of Senate leader Sanchez.

Women lean Dem and tend to be late deciders so this spot is obviously put out with that in mind.  The reference to "look down the entire ballot" addresses the Dem worry about the elimination of straight ticket voting this year. Voters have to vote in each race. It could cause a drop-off in votes in the legislative races among more casual voters.

Only about 40,000 votes will be cast in the two marquee Senate races, so the amount being spent by Jay on TV could be called ridiculous as it will reach hundreds of thousands who can't vote. But the TV attacks have an important psychological component and could motivate Republicans across the state and prod them to cast ballots.

Still, it is boots on the ground that will trump TV--no matter how emotional the spots Reform is running as the Baby Brianna spot they released Friday illustrates. In that category Dems have had a traditional edge. Also, Jennings' challenger--the 27 year old Cliff Pirtle and Sanchez challenger--GOP State Rep. David Chavez--are about to see the wrath of the campaign gods come down on them. No one gets out of this one--a battle for the soul of the state--without shedding blood, sweat and tears.

Patriot Majority may come with TV in response to Reform NM in the big Senate races. Almost certainly, they will mail. Jennings is already on the airwaves with his own TV spot that decries the mudslinging in his race against Tea Party sympathizer Pirtle.

But the coup de grace for rancher Jennings, an avuncular personality who can find himself tongue-tied on the Senate floor but never without the respect of the 42 member chamber, is the support of prominent Republicans. He became pro tem by winning the support of all Senate Republicans combined with a handful of conservative oriented Dems. He has been supportive of Martinez in drafting state budgets, but she still sees him as an impediment.

A personal endorsement of Jennings from former New Mexico Republican Party Chairman Harvey Yates Jr. has been mailed. The Yates family of SE New Mexico is one of the most important oil families in the state. Still, that gnawing question lingers for Jennings--will other Republicans follow Yates' lead or not?  Read on...

SUSANA: AVOIDING THE EGG

Roswell Guv Gathering

Governor Martinez campaigned for Pirtle over the weekend in Roswell, and by any measure it was a bust. Take a look at the photo we posted here of Martinez speaking to a rally for Cliff Pirtle.

Perhaps a mere 40 or so souls turned out in heavily Republican Chaves County to hear the Governor tout the young farmer. We'll let someone else call that embarrassing, but if she and Jay can't deliver in this race, they will get another layer of egg on her face--the first layer having being placed there in a state Senate primary in June in Clovis when she openly backed Angie Spears. She lost big to rancher Pat Woods.

Woods made that race about McCleskey, saying the ABQ political consultant was trying to take the decision about who would be the state Senator from Clovis out of the hands of Clovis. Jennings has not been as blatant as Woods, but some consultants think he should be.

As for the Susana Pirtle rally gone bust, a Senior Alligator chimed in:

This shows the Governor that Roswell and Chaves County don't want outside interference in the race. That her political advisers would expose her in such a way is surprising considering the Clovis mishap.

And lest there be any spin that this wasn't a rally for Pirtle, here's what he said on his Facebook page:

Governor Susana Martinez is coming to Roswell on Saturday from 3:30pm to 5:30pm at the yucca center (500 S. Richardson) in support of my campaign for State Senate. Please come support me for State Senate and take an opportunity to speak with our Governor one on one...

Cliff may be a puppet for Jay and Susana but the young man with an ego is quickly learning that even puppets bleed on the field of battle in the do-or-die, kill-or-be-killed race for the power and glory in Little Texas.

The closest analogy to what is happening in the final stretch of Campaign 2012 comes from Campaign 2000. That's when Dem State House Speaker Raymond Sanchez was successfully targeted by ABQ GOP roofing company owner John Sanchez. He put up $200,000 of his own money to take Raymond out and since then has become lieutenant governor. And guess who John's consultant was back then? One Jay McCleskey.

THE GREAT DISCONNECT

Has there ever been a state campaign more disconnected from reality? You have to ask as Governor Martinez and her political team make the emotional issue of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants the premier campaign issue, even as the state continues a devastating economic slump that shows no signs of abating:

New Mexico lost 9,200 jobs in the 12 months that ended Sept. 30 for a negative 1.1 percent growth rate, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions said. The state’s unemployment rate was 6.4 percent in September, down from 6.5 percent in August. In those 12 months, the state’s labor force dropped by 4,000, from 926,092 to 922,092, Workforce Solutions said. Seven industry sectors lost jobs during the year, including  government, which was down 5,100 jobs; professional and business  services, 3,200; construction, 3,000; information and other services,  1,200 each; financial activities, 1,000; and retail trade...

Driver's licenses for the undocumented and the Baby Brianna child abuse case are emotional wedge issues that divert voter attention away from the harsh economic realities. Governor Martinez is out maneuvering Democrats in making these issues the focus--rather than the jobs crisis which continues to worsen under her watch month after month.

THE MINIMUM

The biz groups opposing a dollar an hour increase in ABQ's minimum wage--taking it to $8.50 an hour--come with a sky is falling TV spot, arguing that the increase would mean the closure of local businesses and an increase in taxes--claims that are not supported by previous minimum increases.

How much anti-minimum media will be out there is key. Polling conducted on the issue by Dems had the increase starting out with 59% support, but an aggressive campaign could take that down.

According to published reports, some 40,000 city residents earn the minimum wage.

HEINRICH VS. WILSON

Martin Heinrich comes with yet another internal poll showing him well ahead of Republican Heather Wilson, but she gets a TV boost from the national Chamber of Commerce which comes with more TV ads.

 Heinrich's poll says he continues to hold a double-digit lead--51 to 41. Independent American Party candidate Jon Barrie pulled 5. In a two way contest, Heinrich leads 53-43. The survey was conducted Oct 14-16. There's never been a public or private poll released during this long campaign that showed Heather leading. 

The Las Cruces-Sun News endorsed Heinrich Sunday. The paper said:

...Heinrich's positions on issues such as immigration and the Dream Act; protection of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid; and the need to protect and preserve public lands in Doña Ana County and throughout New Mexico make him the best choice to carry on with the work that has been done by (Senator ) Bingaman.

The Santa Fe New Mexican has also endorsed Heinrich.

And newsman Milan Simonich writing for southern NM papers punches up the Senate coverage in his latest piece:
 
Heinrich blends teen-idol looks with a fighter's instinct, counterpunching to try to take away Wilson's most obvious strength--a compelling resume.

DEBATE REVIEW

The American clergyman and historian Edward Everett Hale was once asked: "Do you pray for the senators, Dr. Hale?' No, I look at the senators and I pray for the country," he replied.

Maybe we weren't in a fault-finding mood, but we don't think Dr. Hale would have been moved to pray by the performance of either Heinrich or Wilson at Sunday night's KOAT-TV debate. Both vindicated themselves well, hammering home their key campaign planks as they have all year.

Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff gave Wilson a "solid B" and Heinrich a "B-". She did win it on points, but because front-runner Heinrich had a gaffe free performance he protects his polling lead and the debate ends in a draw.

The difference this time was the noticeable polish of both contenders. After all that time on the stump Heinrich has had a growth spurt and Wilson has harnessed her ferociousness into a cogent and even eloquent case. A fast-paced format only made their sharpness more noticeable.

Wilson scored points with her rabid defense of federal funding for the state's defense and energy establishment, while trying to lay blame at Heinrich's feet for possible future federal job losses. She unabashedly and unapologetically said she would fight for every penny of federal funding. (Take that Tea Party). When asked exactly how she would make the case with her senate colleagues for Sandia and Los Alamos Labs, she hit it out of the park, summing it up as succinctly as we've ever heard it. 

For his part Heinrich was steady Eddie and an informed one. He did particularly well at poking at Heather's soft spot--her stance on Social Security reform and her position from years ago that she would entertain the notion of private accounts. She was on the defensive on the issue as she has been all campaign long. It has been key to Heinrich leading in the polls. 

Heinrich was the lesser known of these candidates and he has benefited most from these debates, starting tentatively and gradually getting better and better. Wilson has actually made him a better candidate and while the race has lacked fireworks or a major memorable moment, New Mexicans did get a fair and square debate over its future. (The final Senate debate is Thursday at 7 p.m. on KOB-TV).

THE SENATE AND US

In Washington...

How at risk that future is when it comes to the massive federal funding here was brought into focus for us when we attended a farewell brunch for outgoing Senator Jeff Bingaman in ABQ on Sunday morning. All his seniority--30 years worth--will disappear in a puff when he exits in just two months. The 2009 loss of GOP Senator Domenici and his seniority is already being felt in the area economy. They have brought billions into the state and it has made a difference in the quality of life.

Now the average citizen is simply worried about Social Security and Medicare being there for them--never mind the rest of the federal largesse. That concern favors the Democratic candidate. 

Combined with Wilson's high unfavorables accumulated during many rugged campaigns, Heinrich's continued growth as a congressman (he certainly looks the part) and the state's demographic drift, the burden of defending New Mexico in Washington appears about to be his.

Before we left the Bingaman brunch a top aide to Senator Domenici who is now a DC lobbyist insisted that the smart money only has Heather down by 3.7 percent and she can still close the deal.

If Heinrich is indeed the winner, he and his staff would be well-served to let some of that never-say-die spirit in the Wilson camp rub off on them. This state is going to need it.
 
JANICE HITS MICHELLE

Susana & Janice (Bralley photo)

Here you go Janice Arnold-Jones fans. The pic you've been waiting for. Governor Susana finally caught up with the ABQ GOP underdog congressional contender and showed Janice some love at a get out the vote event in ABQ. 

A faction of the GOP--many of whom are associated with Susana (Hello, Darren) have snubbed Janice and even denigrated her candidacy. Her long established reputation as being a moderate Republican drove them over the edge.

Susana has not been rushing to be anyone's good luck charm this election season, even though her approval rating of over 60% has GOP candidates looking to rub up against her. 

Now more on the congressional race...

Running far behind in the polls, ABQ GOP congressional candidate Janice Arnold-Jones comes with a well-produced negative TV ad against Dem front-runner Michelle Lujan Grisham as she tries to get the race in play in the final two weeks. From her campaign:

...The ad raises doubts about Lujan Grisham’s claim of standing up for New Mexicans by pointing to specific examples of her failures throughout her career as both an unelected bureaucrat, and as a County Commissioner. ..“Voters need to know about Michelle’s real record,” said Rachelle Hadland, Arnold-Jones’ campaign manager.  “She paints a picture of her achievements that just isn’t true.  We intend to shine a light on her resume and hold her accountable for her actions.  We started that process when we launched our web-site, www.TheMichelleRecord.com, and we’re continuing it now with this spot...

In the latest ABQ Journal poll, Michelle leads Janice 51% to 37%. The duo debated last Thursday night on KOB-TV in a program moderated by veteran anchorman Tom Joles. You can see all of it here.

PUEBLO REPUBLICANS

The All Indian Pueblo Council endorses a truck load of Democrats for re-election each election cycle and this one is no different. So what Republicans won the AIPC nod?

ABQ GOP State Senator John Ryan--being challenged by independent Joe Carraro--and ABQ GOP State Rep. Jane Powdrell-Culbert, who is unopposed, were the only two Republicans we saw in the over 40 legislative endorsements made by AIPC. Maybe Senator Pinto will buy them lunch.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author