It's days of wine and roses for Susana when it comes to her overall popularity--she scores a 59% voter approval rating--but peering deep into the numbers of our new exclusive poll we find that there is some post-election pain for the state's chief executive.

That nasty and divisive GOP June Senate primary on the state's eastside in which Martinez played a major role has caused her popularity to take a hit there. But get this. She wasn't hurt in her own party--despite endorsing losing candidate Angie Spears over winner Pat Woods--it was her approval among Democrats that plummeted.

Rancher Woods won that race by citing the outside interference from Martinez and her chief political adviser--Jay McCleskey. He argued the race needed to be decided locally--not out of ABQ or Santa Fe. His campaign even cut a TV ad and produced a mailer that blasted McCleskey and the "ABQ political machine." It worked, but according to our poll it was the Democrats who are making the Guv's popularity pay. Republicans there still highly approve of her.

And that raises a question. Can Democratic legislative candidates who get attacked by Susana PAC and McCleskey in the November election use it to rally Dem voters? Did Republican Woods discover a formula for not just defeating his Republican rival, but also give the Dems the game plan for legislative success against the Governor's well-financed and aggressive political operation?

Now let's get into the specifics of our poll that was conducted by Manzano Strategies on behalf of New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan on July 17. We surveyed 1,505 likely voters by automatic phone calls. The margin of error statewide is 2.5%

THE POST-ELECTION PAIN

Veteran Republican consultant and pollster Bruce Donisthorpe supervised our survey, as he has done for many in the past four years--all of which proved highly accurate and predictive. Of the 1,505 voters we polled, 64 were from northeast New Mexico. The margin of error for those surveys will naturally be much higher--about 12%--but the poll demonstrates a clear trend of northeast Dems moving away from the Gov. Here's Donisthorpe with the analysis:

Gov. Martinez’s approval was at 58% statewide when we last surveyed her popularity in October, 2011. She currently stands at 59% in our latest survey. Martinez’s approval appears to have taken a hit in the northeastern counties which comprise State Senate District 7. That's where she played a major role in the recent Republican primary, endorsing Angie Spears who lost to rancher Pat Woods.

Her approval rating in Curry County (home to Clovis) has dropped from 71% in October, 2011 to  51%. In sparsely populated Harding County the Governor's popularity went from 72% in October, to today's 49%. In Quay County, Martinez’s approval rating dropped from 60% to 51%. In Roosevelt County she stayed pretty constant, scoring a 57% approval rating last October, and receiving a 53% approval rating in our latest survey. In Union County, the Governor’s approval rating has slipped to 51%, down from last October’s approval rate of 55%. (78% of District 7 is in Curry County where the media wars were concentrated but reverberated in the adjacent counties)
 
The Governor’s numbers have dropped most significantly among likely Democratic voters in the northest. Martinez has held her ground among Republican and Independent voters in Northeast New Mexico.
 
Comparing Last October’s ratings to this July among Democratic voters:
 
Her Curry approval rating among Democrats dropped from 72% to 15%. Her Quay County Democratic approval rating dropped from 50% to 33%. Her Union County Democratic approval rating dropped from 50% to 40%. Her Roosevelt Democratic approval rating dropped from 67% to 50%.
 
It seems clear that Democratic voters paid attention to the hotly-contested GOP primary in State Senate 7 and that the publicity seemed to have an adverse affect on the Governor’s popularity among local Democratic voters. Attacks on the Governor’s campaign advisor (Jay McCleskey) probably also did not help bolster the Governor’s approval ratings among Democratic voters.

We also asked Donisthorpe to report to us the Guv's approval rating in some of the state's most populated counties. Again, the margin of error is going to be higher in the county by county results than the statewide totals.

In Bernalillo County, Martinez’s approval rating rose from 56% to 59%. In Dona Ana County, the Governor’s approval rating rose from 51% to 54%. In San Juan County, her approval rating rose from 70% to 91%. In Santa Fe County, Martinez’s approval rating rose from 26% to 39%. The Governor’s 52% approval rating among Hispanic voters is the key factor in her overall high approval rating.

Martinez has every reason to celebrate another solid performance in a statewide scientific public opinion survey, but the fly in the ointment is Curry County and environs. She may want to reassess how she deploys her firepower this fall. In trying to expand her power in that Clovis contest, she appears to have unwittingly given the Dems vital information--that dragging Susana and Jay into a dogfight in a legislative contest isn't necessarily to be feared--it might be a good thing.

Donisthorpe's polling memo and analysis is posted here.

COME ON, DIANNA

Secretary of State Dianna Duran needs to get on the stick or charges of voter suppression are going to start to fly. The news:

...It started out as a good idea: The state would save taxpayers' money by printing its own voter registration forms instead of hiring a private contractor. Trouble is they haven't been able to keep up with demand. New Mexico Vote Matters and other nonprofit get-out-the-vote groups are just flat out of voter registration cards in English. That's because the Bernalillo County Clerk hasn't had any for most of the month. It's the same issue for clerks in Otero, McKinley, Eddy, Lea and Socorro Counties.
"Some of our voter registration agents have actually lost New Mexicans that have been wanting to register and get on the voting rolls," Oriana Sandoval of Vote Matters said. 

The SOS said August should see more registration forms become available.

CARRARO CAN

On our Wednesday blog and the attempt of former GOP State Senator Joe Carraro to beat Republican Senator John Ryan by running as an independent for the ABQ west side and Rio Rancho area district, a reader writes:

Carraro sure comes off cocky as ever, but I think he’s right. He has a shot (especially if, as you say, he can inject a little cash into the mix). I’d imagine that after all those years in public office, a restaurant / bar in his name plus his well-known “colorful personality,” his name recognition could carry him a long way. With no love for the kind of GOP lockstep Gov. Martinez expects from her rank and file, Carraro could be a double-edged, early Christmas present for Senate Dems--who should seriously consider lending their old friend and nemesis a hand in this race...

THE BOTTOM LINES

On our oft-repeated economic development proposals for New Mexico, reader Keith Miller writes:

Sometimes, once that tune stays in our heads for a while we find ourselves humming it for no particular reason. Which is good…we no longer have to ponder what the song says…we just need to sing it! Keep doing it and now let’s find people that want to do these tasks, especially the bi-partisan ones!

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State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez is locked in a extremely close battle with GOP State Rep. David Chavez and is fighting for his political survival in one of the highest stakes legislative battles in state history. That news comes from our new poll of the race--the only independent public survey conducted in the must-watch contest.

In the scientific poll conducted Tuesday night by Manzano Strategies for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan, Sanchez leads Chavez by a mere two points--48% to 46%, with 6% undecided.

The poll was conducted by automatic phone calls among 227 likely voters in Senate District 29 and has a margin of error of 6.4%. The entire polling memo can be seen here.

Republican pollster Bruce Donisthorpe, who supervised the survey, says we are headed for a classic get-out-the-vote election as most voters appear to be decided. He added:

"Both candidates have high unfavorable ratings because of the immense amount of negative campaigning. Sanchez's favorable rating is 43% and his unfavorable rating 39%. Chavez has a 42% favorable rating and a 36% unfavorable. Perhaps some positive messages mixed in could have an impact in the race," he said.

The potential impact of the race on the body politic can't be overstated. A loss by Sanchez would be a major victory for the Governor and throw the Senate leadership into chaos, perhaps opening legislative doors for Martinez that have been firmly shut by Sanchez. However, a victory by Sanchez almost guarantees that Martinez will suffer major payback and none of her legislative program will get approved unless she agrees to major compromises.

POWER STRUGGLE SUPREME

Rep. Chavez

Sen. Sanchez

Hundreds of thousands of dollars have been spent by the political action committee led by Governor Martinez's chief political consultant in the effort to dethrone Sanchez. It is money that has put this race in play, but still not quite in the grasp of Chavez who is fighting to beat Sanchez in a Valencia County district that is 49% Democrat, 29% Republican and 21% independent and minor party.

Given those circumstances, Sanchez remains the favorite.

And the spending continues at a fierce pace, with the Dem friendly Patriot Majority fund beginning to attack Chavez as they fight to fend off Reform NM Now, the PAC run by Guv adviser Jay McCleksey.

Posted here today is the latest hit piece from Reform, accusing Senate President Pro Tem Jennings of being soft on child killers, Similar mail is being sent against Sanchez. Also, a hard-hitting TV ad that features Governor Martinez talking about her prosecution of the Baby Brianna case when she was a district attorney is in heavy rotation. The ad says Sanchez and Senate President Pro Tem Jennings have not voted for tough enough penalties for convicted child killers. "Sanchez and Jennings must go," the ad concludes.

Other findings from our exclusive poll: President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Sanchez Senate district 46% to 44%. Gary Johnson gets 7% with the remainder undecided. Obama's GOTV could help Sanchez.

Donisthorpe says a total of about 19,000 voters are expected to cast ballots in the Sanchez-Chavez race, so imagine the amount of money per vote that is being spent.

Democrats are breaking for Sanchez 64% to 31%. Republicans go for Chavez 71% to 22%. It's nearly a tie with independents. Sanchez scores 48% with them and Chavez gets 45%.

Hispanic voters favored Sanchez by a 59%-36% margin, not all that high for a Democratic candidate. Donisthorpe said the Republicans fielding a Hispanic opponent seems to have helped tighten the race.

Donisthorpe reports that Sanchez is winning among women 53% to 42% and Chavez leads among men 52% to 40%.

We're watching this important race very closely for you, committing financial resources to conduct polling and calling on the top political minds in the state to provide you with updates on the latest action. It's another reason why New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan is the #1 political web site--the state's must-read.

OUR HISTORY

We first conducted polling with Manzano Strategies and Donisthorpe in 2008. In every cycle they have delivered superior performance, accurately projecting the winners in all the major races surveyed or indicating when they are too close to call.

 DATELINE CLOVIS

Sen. Woods

In late July we released polling that indicated Governor Martinez suffered some damage apparently because of her interference in a GOP state Senate primary there. She supported Angie Spears, but she lost to Pat Woods. Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey--head of Reform NM Now PAC--was featured in a TV commercial by Woods and Woods was aggressively attacked by Jay. We detected some weakness in Martinez's Democratic numbers in the aftermath of that contest, but McCleskey associates Darren White and Adam Feldman took to their Twitter accounts to ridicule the polling saying the sample was to small.

Well, we take all our critics seriously so we went back to Curry County exclusively on October 2 and had Manzano Strategies and Republican Bruce Donisthorpe do 512 surveys by automatic phone to get a better picture. 193 of them were likely Dem voters so the margin of error for that subgroup is a reasonable 7%. Here's the complete polling memo on what we found and here is a summary:

An October survey of Clovis and the surrounding area shows the Governor’s approval ratings to be on the rebound in Curry County since we last polled in July. 

Manzano Strategies Polling surveyed Curry County and found the Governor with a healthy 64% favorable approval rating, while 18% had an unfavorable rating. About 18% of likely voters were unsure about the Governor.

Martinez's numbers are improving from the 51% we recorded in July. 78% of R voters gave her a favorable rating, but the Guv polls at 90% or better among Republicans in most other counties.

About 53% of Democratic voters in Curry gave the Guv favorable marks, but she polls in the 60s with Dem voters along the East Side.  However, Hispanic likely Democratic Hispanic voters gave her an unfavorable rating of 50%, while 21% were favorable. Could this foreshadow a crack in the Guv’s Hispanic ratings?  We shall see after this campaign in which Martinez has taken strong positions against leading Dem legislative candidates

In July, we wrote that the Governor’s approval rating had slipped about 20 points from October, 2011 and last July.  We focused on the hotly-contested GOP June Primary in which the Guv went all-in for her hand-picked prospective GOP State Senate candidate Angie Spears who lost to Rancher Pat Woods. We conclude that the divisive Clovis primary did indeed cost Martinez political capital and she is in recovery mode there. Her possible long term problem is lasting damage with Hispanic Democrats.

There you have it. We pride ourselves on presenting some of the most accurate polling in state history on this site. Our record in the major races speaks for itself.

Listening to both our fans and our critics--It's just one of the reasons why New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan sets the standard in state political coverage and why for years we've been the state's #1 political web site.

HEINRICH TV

Heinrich's latest TV ad is all sunshine and lollipops. The script:

Coming home from Washington almost every weekend keeps me focused on New Mexico’s priorities, and what’s important. Living up to the promises we’ve made to our soldiers. Taking care of seniors by protecting Social Security and Medicare. Educating our children and keeping college affordable. Working for the middle class, not corporations.] We may all have different backgrounds, but we all share New Mexico values and priorities. I’m Martin Heinrich and I approve this message, for all of us. 

Heinrich's voice seems a bit more high-pitched than usual. Maybe they speeded up the spot a bit to fit the time or Heinrich is just getting giddy over the fact that he still leads Republcian Heather Wilson.

As for Heather's ad in which the former chairman of Heinrich's military affairs commission says he will vote for Wilson, the Santa Fe Reporter adds:

A retired US Air Force Colonel denies any financial motivation behind his endorsement of  Wilson. In Jan. 1996, Colonel Gary Van Valin says, he became the "100-percent owner" of Albuquerque-based consulting firm, Keystone International Inc., after purchasing the company from Wilson, who founded it in 1991. "I don't think that's something that you need to know," Van Valin responds when asked about the cost of the purchase. "It has been published in a paper in the past, but I don't think you need to know that."

We know. We're surprised Heather got this sloppy, but it's late in the game and she's behind two touchdowns. This stuff happens when you start throwing long.

RUBIO AND KERRY HERE

Sen. Rubio

The state campaign trail gets two big name US Senators today:

Marco Rubio of Florida and John Kerry of Massachusetts, will try today to influence New Mexico's Senate race. Rubio will campaign in Mesilla and Albuquerque for Republican Wilson. Kerry will be in Santa Fe for an appearance and fundraiser with Heinrich...

Rubio, 41,...was behind Florida's Republican governor, Charlie Crist, by double digits in 2010 early in their race for the Senate. But Rubio caught fire with voters, and Crist ended up running a losing campaign as an independent. Kerry, 68, was the Democratic candidate for president in 2004..

Hey, Rubio and Kerry, we might need your help with federal funding for our national labs and other government funding, so enjoy yourselves and remember us when you are cruising the Potomac.

SUSANA WITH MITT

The Guv spoke to one of the largest crowds of her political career Tuesday night near Denver. Kid Rock was one of the draws so all 10,000 seats in the amphitheatre were filled. Martinez was one of those warming up the charged up crowd. Her complete speech is  here.

OX GOES NEGATIVE

Attorney Chris "Ox" Ocksrider is going negative. He's the Republican facing Democrat and Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya for an ABQ area seat on the Public Regulation Commission. Ox plows ahead with this TV spot. But there doesn't seem to be an active investigation into the assessor's office. The FBI questioned several employees in May--one of whom was fired by Montoya--but reported nothing. They don't announce when they end an investigation, but this one never really appeared to get off the ground.

The paper reported that the FBI was looking into the relationship between Montoya and property tax consultant and Dem State Senator Tim Eichenberg. He calls the FBI story "nonsense."

Meanwhile, Montoya has come with her own TV spot that touts some big name Dem endorsements of her, including that of PRC Commissioner Jason Marks, the Dem she hopes to replace.

NO PROMOTION, PLEASE

Thanks, but no thanks. So says ABQ Dem state Senate candidate Lisa Curtis to the Alligators and speculators who think she could be positioned for a run at the Guv's chair in 2014. The speculation is founded in solid numbers.

Curtis--who faces an uphill battle to retain the Senate seat she was appointed to fill in a heavy R district--recently bought $80,000 in TV time in an effort to hang on. That's an extraordinary amount of money to reach a small sliver of voters, but Curtis, a successful trial attorney, says don't read anything into it:

I just have a tough district. That is why I went up on TV.  I truly have no intention of running for Governor. I have a great job that I love, and four teenagers to get through college. I really can't fun for Governor, so I appreciate the thought process and understand it because I know it is a lot of money. But I actually see the Senate as a place where I have the ability to do great good and still do my regular job. I don't need a bigger target on my back... 

Hear that, Jay? She doesn't want a target on her back so you can put that anti-Lisa TV script back in the vault...for now.

While we believe Curtis when she says she is focused on the Senate race, there is a deep restlessness in the Democratic Party over who they will field to to take on Susana in 2014. We could hear her name again and many others following the Nov. 6 election.

BY THE NUMBERS

Don't put too much stock in talk that there's going to be a plunge in state voter turnout because the races at the top of the state ballot--president, senate and US House--are not that close. Several of our analysts point out that the national contest between Obama and Romney is exceptionally tight and while polling in New Mexico shows Obama well ahead here, average voters are not focused on that--they are focused on the national picture which gets much more exposure.

A prediction that has proven safe over the years is that turnout in the state for a presidential election will be healthy. Voting for President is in our DNA. We had a turnout of about 69.5% registered voters in 2008 for the presidential race and will get something similar this time. However, the voter rolls are not bring purged with regularity and that gives us more registered voters than there actually are and harder to increase the voter turnout percentage.

Here are the latest voting numbers from the AP:

Voter registration in New Mexico has increased about 5 percent since the last presidential election, and independent voters have grown the fastest, state election officials reported. Nearly 1.3 million people are registered and eligible to vote in the Nov. 6 general election...The number of New Mexicans who declined to affiliate with a political party when they registered to vote..has increased by 22 percent since Oct. 31, 2008...Independents account for 18 percent of voters, up from 15 percent in 2008 and 6 percent in 1984. Democrats continue to hold a big edge over Republicans in registration. About 48 percent of New Mexico's eligible voters are Democrats--down from 50 percent before the 2008 general election and from nearly 62 percent in 1984.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In our first blog draft Tuesday we did not include 1976 as a year in our lifetime when an incumbent president was defeated. That year President Ford lost to Jimmy Carter...

We know many of you want to vote early--if you haven't already--so here is the League of Women Voters on-line voting guide that profiles the candidates from the top to the bottom of the ballot.

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Mayor Berry

Mayor Berry posted a record-smashing 68 percent of the vote when he won re-election last October, but a brutal stretch of news revolving around the ABQ police department appears to have brought him back down to earth. In a poll of likely voters conducted by BWD Global on Monday and Tuesday of this week Berry scores an approval rating of 56.6 percent. 29.8 percent of the 998 likely voters surveyed said they disapproved of Berry's job performance. 13.6 percent said they were unsure.

Since Berry's re-election the Justice Department has released a scathing report over the many ABQ fatal police shootings and the most sensational of those shootings--that of homeless camper James Boyd--catapulted the city into the international spotlight and prompted large street protests against APD.

Berry's approval rating is still strong for a Republican in a Democratic city, but it has to be mentioned that Berry has not been subjected to any paid media criticism nor for that matter much criticism from  Democrats. The dismal news backdrop alone appears to have deflated his numbers.

The APD crisis appears to have hurt Berry most with Democrats. 46 percent of them now disapprove of his performance, while 36.7 approve and 17.3 percent of the Dems said they were unsure.

Berry continues to pull solid GOP support, with 83.4% of Republicans saying they approved of him. Independents are another bulwark of mayoral support. 63.8 percent of them approved of Berry and 21.3 percent disapproved.

BWD Global is headed by Republican Bruce Donisthorpe who has conducted numerous automatic phone call polls for NM Politics with Joe Monahan as well as political and business clients. The margin of error in the Berry survey is plus or minus 3.1 percent.

GUV OVERREACH?

Governor Martinez's camp professes to be supremely confident about her re-election chances, but this action says they may be a lot more nervous than they are letting on:

Gov. Martinez and her lawyers wanted to stop an ad critical of her from airing in the Albuquerque television market. The ad features a young Hispanic woman who says: "Behind closed doors, Susana Martinez played along when her staff laughed and shamed Spanish-speaking families, like mine. Caught on tape, she refuses to apologize." 

Better New Mexico Political Action Committee paid for the ad. The committee is supported by Pat Davis' ProgressNow New Mexico, which has been among Martinez's harshest critics. (Martinez's) lawyer, Paul M. Kienzle III, wrote to TV stations, saying the ad could be libelous. " Mr. Davis and ProgressNow New Mexico are notorious for launching. . . false attacks against Governor Martinez," Kienzle stated in a letter to KOB.

"... We do not know the content of this advertisement, but suspect it may be concerning the recent audio tapes leaked from Governor Martinez's 2010 campaign. The most controversial comments on those tapes were made by campaign staff of Governor Martinez and attempting to attribute comments on those tapes to Governor Martinez, or mischaracterizing her role in those comments, would be false and libelous."

Kienzle went on to say that TV stations did not have to run the ad.

Well, the TV stations are airing the ad and its curious why the Guv's camp tried to censor it before they even knew its content. But then they are likely to spend as much as $1 million on each of the three major stations for he re-election bid this year. Maybe they were trying to muscle the station?

ABOUT THE AD

More about the Spanish name for the TV ad in question from one of our readers:

Here’s a clarification on the term: ¡Qué vergüenza! Joe, it carries a much stronger meaning in Spanish than the English translation “How embarrassing.” It’s more like “How shameful!” or “Shame on you!” It’s used to tell someone that they should be ashamed of what they did/said.

And Alligator analysis of the Guv's unusual attempt to squash the airing of the spot:

I'm kind of Intrigued by the Martinez team's overreaction to this ad about the audio tapes involving the governor. The ad doesn't uncover anything new that hasn't already been reported. The ad itself is pretty soft, without any ominous background music or slashing graphics. But the governor's team calls it "false" (when "misleading" would probably be a better argument). And we hear the governor's attorney tried to stop stations from airing it. For a governor who claims to be tough, she's pretty thin-skinned. 

It's also amazing to watch no one really give into these bullying tactics. Is the magic spell that Martinez had had have over the press wearing off? Is their response so over the top for an incumbent governor because this issue moves voters in the polling? Is the ad particularly compelling because it uses a Hispanic woman--a group key to the governor's success? Or, perhaps, this is an ad that hits right at the Governor's efforts to sell herself nationally as a Hispanic Republican loved by Hispanics? I would say it's all of the above. 

And that's the stuff you won't get anywhere else which is why. . . .

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Sunday's ABQ Journal poll showing  Governor Susana Martinez beating Democrat Gary King 50 to 41 percent with 9 percent undecided wasn't a stunner, but it did demonstrate that enthusiasm for the first term Republican Governor has peaked. The obvious is that she remains favored for re-election. But this is now a campaign that will draw more scrutiny than it did over the summer.

Martinez has thus far been blessed by weak opposition in King, but because this poll does not have the Governor closing out the race early, it gives him what could be a brief window of opportunity. With $4 million in cash, Martinez will move rapidly to close that window. King's campaign kitty was a mere $116,000 last month.

This poll appears to put him firmly in gambling territory. Is the race on the cusp of being winnable and sways him to write a check from his family wealth for $1 or $2 million? Or does he plod ahead hoping serendipity strikes?

(King came back on TV last week with an ad about his family's legacy of service to the state).

POLL WATCHING

The pundits, Alligators and insiders were quick to weigh in on the first public poll of the '14 Guv derby that has widespread credibility and a long history of accuracy.

Pollster Bruce Donisthorpe had the Guv race at 53-to 40 in favor of Martinez in a June 10 automatic phone poll he conducted for the NM Republican Party. He says:

The Journal poll shows that all the Republican vote is now in and going predictably for the Governor. She has dropped some with independents and Democrats over the summer. Independents are the key for King to break the race open which is why you are seeing much talk about education from both sides. It is high on the list of issues for independents. 

The ball is in King's court. He has to make the next move. I would expect he would run a more aggressive TV campaign against her than what we have seen. Unless King interrupts the campaign and the turnout model, Martinez is trending toward the 52-53 percent mark.

Martinez won election in 2010 by beating Diane Denish 53.29% to 46.55%. In the 2010 August 23-27 ABQ Journal poll Dem Diane Denish pulled 39% to Martinez's 45%.

DEMORALIZED DEMS

Former ABQ GOP City Councilor Greg Payne--now an independent--has consulted a wide variety of campaigns including GOP Governor Gary Johnson's 1994 winning effort. His take:

The good news for Martinez, she’s in the lead. The bad news--after spending heavily attacking her opponent and getting consistently favorable coverage from most of the media--she’s only at 50%. There’s no question she wants to be polling much higher than that, and ought to be in the high 50s.

Martinez is positioned well to win the election, but not because of her record or her campaign. She has a state full of disorganized and demoralized Democrats to thank for that. 

In a sense, the most important part of this campaign was the psychological war the Martinez machine successfully waged against Democrats, convincing them they could not win in 2014 and should just go along, play nice and position themselves for the 2018 election. These polls numbers show they could have won this November if they’d bothered to try.

The Journal poll is not a resounding show of strength from Martinez. If King were winning Democrats the way Martinez is winning Republicans, if Albuquerque--a Democratic city--were supporting King and not his Republican opponent, this would be a much different election. 

Dem pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides agrees with Donisthorpe on the trend and adds:

The goods news for the Democrats is that it appears a Democratic disaster will be averted. The bad news is that King still appears to be about 54,000 votes behind. He is going to have to motivate Democratic voters to change the turnout model. Martinez has peaked but projected turnout takes her to the 53 percent area. King needs to sweeten up Democrats who are not enthusiastic about him. He will need to spend heavily on TV and go negative in a big way. . . 

Martinez and her allies spent $1 million on TV over the summer--much of it attacking King--but she is not past 50 percent. That shows that everything isn't rosy over there. Besides jobs and the economy, King should look to social issues--like the right of women to control their health care--in order to get Democratic women to vote.

GATOR STRIKE

From the Alligator pond comes this from an insider Dem:

The Governor at 50% is the big story here. She has peaked out and it should be a wake up call to the Governor's people that she needs to change her image and policies to have a stronger November showing. If she wants to be a national figure, now is the time to show something special and run up the scoreboard on a lackluster Democratic candidate. But it looks like she is having a very hard time doing that.

King is surviving on the base Democratic vote  and not much more. He needs to win back Democratic Hispanic votes from Martinez and be more competitive in Albuquerque with independents. But we've all known this for months. The question is: What is Gary King doing about it? So far, the answer is "not much." There's 9% undecided and the rule of thumb is that 3/4 of that vote should go to the challenger, which means we are talking a 53-47 race which puts it well in the realm of King winning. But without a plan, without a strategy, that ain't gonna happen.

Does Martinez at 50 percent influence the down ballot races? This Gator thinks so:

The somewhat good news here for Dems is that the Governor is not safe enough for her to generate a lot of coattails or to start spending on the lower ballot races. This should make state auditor candidate Tim Keller and secretary of state candidate Maggie Toulouse Oliver happy. It also might take some heat off state House Democrats.  But the bad news for Dems is the turnout model. This election is becoming a snoozer and Dems have to watch out for a low-turnout election dominated by conservative Anglo seniors voting Republican. Young people, Hispanics and women are less interested this year. If  party leaders want to avoid a black eye they need to generate some enthusiasm.

BYE, BYE, BROOKS

Well, they didn't exactly run him out of town on a rail, did they? In fact, ABQ Public Schools Superintendent Winston Brooks resigned Friday accompanies by glowing statements of approval as the APS Board appeared to shiver in sheer fear that he would sue the pajamas off them--for what we don't know, but something.

Then there's that weird legal clause involving his wife Anne that states no one at APS better say anything nasty about her--or else. It seemed to be the tip-off that the Board simply did not have the goods on Brooks. So they had to buy the 62 year old out with a plump $350,000 check, a letter of recommendation and that promise to see no evil and hear no evil when it comes to Mr. and Mrs. Winston Brooks. So what specifically are taxpayers paying Brooks $350,000 for? Inquiring minds would like to know but it may take a court battle to find out.

The Guv and Public Education Secretary Hanna Skandera--who long battled with Brooks--were no doubt glad to see him go. Whether they played a hand in his departure, we'll leave to the Black Helicopter crowd (of which we are a charter member). Now we wait to see if the APS turmoil spills onto the campaign trail. . .

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Chief Gorden Eden

ABQ police chief Gorden Eden has a long way to go to win the public's confidence that he's the man to clean up his troubled department.

That's according to a poll conducted for NM Politics with for Joe Monahan that shows only 17.8 percent of likely ABQ voters said they are "totally confident" in Eden's ability to be successful in implementing reforms that will be negotiated between the city and the Department of Justice.

 42.1 percent described themselves as "somewhat confident" that Eden can get the job done. 24.9 percent said they were "not confident" and 6.3 percent said they were "absolutely not confident" about Eden. 8.9 percent said they were unsure.

The reforms are expected to be overseen by a Federal Monitor and could cost the city millions to implement.

It's not surprising that the public is holding back on giving Eden a robust vote of confidence. He has had an inauspicious beginning.

He became chief in mid-February. In March homeless camper James Boyd was shot to death by APD. Police video of the incident went viral around the globe, sparking street protests here and intense criticism of APD.

The fatal shootings that brought the Justice Department to town in the first place have continued. There have been three other killings in addition to Boyd since Eden took over. The latest came Saturday on ABQ's Westside.

Eden's recent news conference at which he repeatedly said "I don't know" when asked questions about the police shooting of 19 year old Mary Hawkes was widely viewed as a PR disaster.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

As expected, Eden, who came to APD after a stint as head of the NM Public Safety Department, fared better in our poll with Republicans than Democrats. 27.2 percent of the R's said they were totally confident he could clean up the department and 49.9 percent said they were somewhat confident.

Democrats were more skeptical. Only 10.1 percent of them said they were totally confident of Eden and 34.9 percent somewhat confident. 36.1 percent said they were not confident and 10.3 percent said they were "absolutely not confident."

Independents were more favorable. 19.1 percent aid they were totally confident in Eden's ability and 46.8 percent said they were somewhat confident. 12.8 percent said they were not confident and 4.3 percent said they were absolutely not confident.

Since this poll was of likely city voters the survey will tilt more conservative than a poll of ABQ residents at large.

Our poll was conducted by BWD Global, headed by Republican Bruce Donisthorpe. We surveyed 993 likely ABQ voters by automatic phone calls on April 28 and 29. The margin of error is 3.1 percent. BWD has polled for this website since 2008.

BERRY PATCH

Our exclusive polling conducted last week showed erosion in the popularity of ABQ Mayor Berry in the wake of the police controversy. 56.6 percent approve of Berry and 29.8 percent disapprove. Berry won a record 68 percent of the vote in his reelection bid last October. Recent events appear to have taken a toll and if they continue could further damage the Republican mayor. For now that approval rating is still solid for a Democratic city.

Berry reacted to the poll in an interview with KOB-TV, saying:

“No city is without challenges, and Albuquerque is no exception,” Berry said. “But we don’t want to allow that to become something that causes us to stop all the rest of the positive things that we’re doing. Let’s address the challenges and the issues, let’s keep pushing forward with all of the positive things that are happening. That’s what makes Albuquerque a great city.”

Berry's mayoral term--which he said will be his last--runs until December 1, 2017.

FELONIOUS LICENSE CHECKS?


Heck, with a news background like that who could blame ex-Dem Taos Mayor Darren Cordova if he signs on for a gig with Susana?

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Latest Rasmussen poll released Tuesday morning has Martinez over Denish 52 to 42.

Denish (New Mexican)
The days dwindle down to a precious few and the traditional stomach-churning, sleep-depriving anxiety and sense of foreboding is now afflicting even the most confident campaigns. It's especially so in this topsy-turvy, crazy year when no one is really sure just who will get out and vote and in what numbers. Add to the mix a dreary economic backdrop the likes of which modern day New Mexico has never seen and you have a perfect recipe for apprehension, one that not even Emeril Lagasse could cook up.

The apprehension burst into full view Monday as the final week began and the camp of Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish threw a poll on the table that contended she was only one point back of Republican Susana Martinez--46 to 45. The Martinez's camp quickly responded with a survey of their own taken in roughly the same time frame that showed Susana still leading Di big time--50 to 42.

But with all conservative votes seemingly accounted for there was a continued sense that the Dem candidate had nowhere to go but up, even if no one knew where she would bump into the ceiling.

The final or near-final round of Susana TV spots confirmed the disquiet. Both spots--TV and radio--are relentlessly negative. Here's the TV and here is the radio. Martinez has thrown in some positive stuff in recent weeks, but as the guts tighten in these last tension filled hours the campaign decided to go with what has worked for them--a strong anti-Richardson-Denish message. It was a sign that they do not feel that they have this deal sealed, said several Alligators, or else they would have moved to more positive stuff to position Martinez as Governor. Also, our analysts say that continued negative campaigning could keep voter turnout down, a plus for a Republican candidate. (Martinez has moved into rotation this positive closing ad along with the continued negative hits).

Not to say that they are not the front-running campaign. But it does say they do not feel they have room to flirt with a positive close right now. The Denish reading on the EKG may be troublesome, but she has not flat-lined. (Although with the release Tuesday morning of the Rasmussen survey with Denish trailing by ten--52--42-- the heartbeat is a murmur.)

MORE MARTINEZ VS. DENISH

From polling analysis, the undecided is almost all independent and Dem voters. The R's are in the bank. Denish is climbing uphill with a pack on her back too heavy for a mule. She has to landslide these undecideds. Likely? Maybe not. Inconceivable? No. Her campaign says strong debate performances and more populist messaging (e.g. predatory lending) has strengthened her.

Denish, of course, is still on the attack trying desperately to make up lost ground and win this thing by a margin of 2,000 votes or less. She finally came with the TV ad the media and pundits were waiting for. It shows Martinez being embraced by conservative Sarah Palin at a May ABQ rally for Martinez. It comes with the tag line "Your friends say a lot about you." The spot then shows Di's friend-- ex-President Clinton--at an Espanola rally saying that "Denish would be a great governor."

Contrasting Palin's support of Martinez with Clinton's of Denish is obviously aimed at deep-blue Dem voters who have not been jumping on the Di bandwagon.

Denish is now aiming her get-out-the-vote guns at those new base voters who came out for Obama in 2008. Not an easy task with a message that may have been too conservative all campaign long, but ammunition is running low for Di and the Dems.

HERRERA VS. DURAN

The dueling polling continued in that "round-and- round-she-goes-where-she stops-nobody-knows race" for Secretary of State. Republican Dianna Duran released a poll done by the same outfit that polls for Martinez showing her with a stunning 12 point lead--46 to 34--over incumbent Dem Secretary of State Mary Herrera. But Herrera's camp pointed out that the survey was done between Oct. 14 and 18 and they came with numbers of their own.

Veteran Dem pollster Harry Pavlides, working it for Herrrera, called the Duran poll, released by her campaign manager, Roswell GOP State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair, "stale bread." He said his survey of over 400 likely voters taken over the weekend gives Herrera a lead in the ABQ and Northern congressional districts, enough to keep her ahead of Duran who will sweep the southern district. The Herrera camp did not release the full poll.

Still, that looks mighty close and Herrera is going to have to keep Duran at bay in big Bernalillo County and wrack up traditional big Dem margins up North to ensure the victory. Duran has gone up with $125,000 in TV. Herrera is also up, but with a smaller buy. However, she has been on radio for weeks which targets rural voters. There's still concern among Martinez supporters that pounding Herrera too hard could rile up the Democratic base and harm Martinez's Guv bid.

Herrera has been engulfed in controversy with ex-employees accusing her of wrongdoing. Not one major newspaper has endorsed her re-election. One of those employees, former elections head A.J. Salazar, took to KKOB-AM radio Monday to further knock Herrera, but he encountered resistance from Herrera supporters. It was another sign that Herrera is fighting tooth and nail to hang on to power.

Republican analyst Greg Payne says the Duran poll should be eyed skeptically. He wondered how the relatively unknown Alamogordo GOP state senator could be up 12 points in a down-ballot race normally dominated by Dems while Susana Martinez says she is up only eight points over Denish.

Still, the SOS race--all Democratic for 80 years--is seen as the GOP's best chance for a down-ballot upset. We think we will have a good handle on it shortly after 7 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM Election Night. That's when the early and absentee vote for Bernalillo County will be released. Duran will need to show muscle in those returns, or else the race will belong to the Dem Donkey.

YOU'RE STILL IN IT BRIAN

With operatives working to plant seeds of doubt on all conceivable scenarios, Brian Sanderoff and his ABQ Journal poll will again be closely scrutinized come Sunday. It will be the paper's final take on the Guv race, the three congressional contests and the attorney general face-off.

HEINRICH VS. BARELA

The nerves are also frayed among our three freshman congressional representatives who are enduring their first re-election tests. ABQ Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich worked Monday to get the vote out in Bernalillo, appearing with Attorney General Gary King. His camp is confident but this is such a volatile year nothing can be taken for granted. Also on hand for the rally was Dem US Senator Tom Udall and Dem Light Guv candidate Brian Colon.

Republican Jon Barela has no quit in him, fighting over the weekend with retired US GOP Senator Pete Domenici by his side. Heather Wilson, who held the congressional seat before Heinrich, has also been seen on the trail with Barela. GOP analysts think the lower the turnout the better as Barela works furiously to pull off the upset. It may be the last chance the R's get to wrest the seat from Heinrich.

The southern race is seen as trending heavily to Steve Pearce over Rep. Harry Teague. Harry will play the Social Security card on Republican Pearce this week, but the urgency surrounding the contest has dissipated. Top state Dems now think this is Steve's to lose

Up north, Ben Ray Lujan's campaign is contending with pugnacious Republican Tom Mullins who is drawing cheers from R's for his debate performances against the congressman. There is no public polling in the heavy Dem district, but Lujan has had enough of Mullins roughing him up. His campaign manager says of Mullins: "This is the same guy who wanted to land mine the border" and is now trying to "hide his dangerous ideas." The counterattack, now also playing on TV, is seen as keeping Mullins in check in this crazy-quilt year when even the Spanish North is subject to zigging and zagging.

THE MAIL BAG

Reader Andrew Diversey says a recent blog butchered a quote from Susana Martinez and he wants to set the record straight:

Here is what you quote her as saying:

“It's sad. It's disappointing that anyone running for the top position of governor and lieutenant governor. I think the appropriate thing to do is divide people instead of uniting them. They are talking about me as a person instead of where I stand on the various policies...”

This is incorrect. She obviously did not say “I think” at the beginning of the second sentence since she is criticizing what the Democratic party candidates running for governor and lieutenant governor think.

If you listen carefully to her interview on YouTube, you will hear her saying the following:

“You know it’s sad; it’s disappointing that anyone who’s running for the top position of governor and lieutenant governor think that the appropriate thing to do is to divide people instead of uniting them. I don’t know what they intended by it, but it’s inappropriate.”

Thanks for catching that, Andrew.

And our recommendation that three of the four statewide bond issues be voted down drew this response from Billy Sparks, executive director for communication at the University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center. He urged approval of Bond D for higher education, saying:

One project with unquestionable statewide significance is the renovation and expansion of decades-old Carrie Tingley Hospital. Services and clinics housed in the CTH facility include specialized orthopedics and musculoskeletal related clinics such as Spina Bifidia, Cerebral Palsy and an Orthopedic/Spine program.

The rehabilitative program includes a comprehensive speech, physical and occupational health services as well as multiple gym and therapy spaces designed to meet the special needs of complex pediatric patients. Multiple specialty clinics within the CTH facility are also designed to increase access to care for children with special challenges. ...Outreach programs throughout the state serve to increase access to children and families...Supporting the GO Bond ensures that these important services continue to be available for the growing communities throughout New Mexico....

PIT RULE CHALLENGE (cont.)

And our ongoing debate over the "Pit Rule," continues to draw comments. We've asked for definitive proof that the rule, designed to protect the environment from oil and gas drilling, has cost energy related jobs. Dana Hodges of Little Texas says her company is the proof. She picks up on this ABQ Journal article outlining how a company owned by Dem heavyweight and Journal villain Johnny Cope benefits from the rule.

I am an avid reader of your blog, live in SE New Mexico and own a small business that is oil & gas related. Prior to the pit rule change we employed 25 people, now we employee three. I don’t care what anyone else thinks outside of this area but the pit rule change did affect all of us in this area, except the few mentioned in this article.

It's Election Eve in New Mexico and that means it's time for the last round of analysis and predictions at our traditional round table at KANW 89.1 FM. That's at 5 p.m. today (The table really is kind of round).

On Tuesday night--Primary Election Night--we return to the same microphones beginning at 6:30 p.m. to call the results and provide the most in-depth analysis in the state.

This marks our 24th consecutive year in the broadcast booth on election nights for the public radio station. We hope to have you with us for all the excitement and final vote tallies.

Our radio programs will also be streamed from the KANW web site so if you're outside the ABQ/Santa Fe listening area, you can join us at 5 p.m. today by Clicking Here and again tomorrow night at 6:30 p.m.

We have an expert panel lined up for today's pre-game show. Former NM Democratic Party Chairman John Wertheim, Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino and former ABQ City Councilor Miguel Gomez will be joined by Republican consultant Bob Cornelius and journalist Rob Nikolewski of Capitol Report New Mexico in Santa Fe.

These analysts are all known for their "tell it like it is" approach to state politics. As a result their opinions are sought after from both sides of the political aisle. It's a broadcast at 5 p.m. today you won't want to miss.

OUR SPONSORS

Thanks much to our sponsors of this year's radio coverage. They make it all possible:

 PNM, the Albuquerque Teacher's Federation, JD Bullington Government Affairs, The Garrity Group (public relations) and the law firm of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP.

FIRST BIG PREDICTION
Donisthorpe
You don't have to wait until 5 p.m. today for a major prediction. Veteran Republican analyst and pollster Bruce Donisthorpe of Manzano Strategies comes with an Election Eve thunder maker:

Joe, I am calling the race for the ABQ Democratic congressional nomination for Eric Griego. After the party's pre-primary convention in March, you quoted me as saying, "It is Griego's to lose." I am still of that view. Based on the polling we did for your blog on May 22 and my turnout model for this election, I believe Griego will emerge as the nominee tomorrow night.

This will be due to his ability to rally the large liberal base in the party and little to do with the last minute negative fireworks. That will have an impact, but the overall lay of the land points to a Griego nomination.

Bully for you, Bruce. If you're right, you'll be placed upon a polling pedestal for all to praise. If you're wrong, look out for the rotten eggs and tomatoes while you're up there.

Donisthorpe's prediction is significant because he has polled for us (and other clients) for over five years, using automatic phone technology combined with excellent voter lists and scientific methodology.

He nailed the 2008 congressional race, with his poll showing Martin Heinrich heading for a big victory over Republican Darren White. In 2010, he was the first public pollster to break the news that Susana Martinez had pulled ahead of Allen Weh and would be that year's Guv nominee.

His May 22 poll for us in this year's Dem congressional race had Griego in a statistical dead-heat with Michelle Lujan Grisham. Marty Chavez was lagging. Days later the ABQ Journal poll--conducted by the estimable Brian Sanderoff--came with the same outcome--a dead heat.

Donisthorpe, who was a top aide to Republican NM Congressman Joe Skeen and GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers, will be an on-air contributor on KANW tomorrow night, offering returns and analysis in key races across the state.

It's another great reason to be with us on the radio for Primary Election Night 2012.

THE COSS CASE

Santa Fe Mayor Dave Coss appears to have gotten a big break in his battle with Carl Trujillo for the Dem nomination for the Santa Fe area state House seat being vacated by Speaker Ben Lujan. But it was not anything Coss did.

The new Reform New Mexico Now super PAC is obviously formed to help Governor Martinez and  is funded primarily by oil companies based in Artesia. One TV newser calls it the "wild step-sister of SusanaPac." The same oil companies have also given money to SusanaPAC, run by Martinez svengali Jay McCleskey. The PAC, with a cash kitty of $205,000 sent out a mailer in support of Trujillo, saying he will be a reformer of public schools.

Trujillo has no control over the group, but the fact that Susana is now being associated with his campaign may doom him. Coss supporters are going for a final-hours kill, with Santa Fe State Rep. Brian Egolf among those leading the charge:

Governor Martinez...is taking unprecedented steps to defeat (Coss)...We need David Coss in the legislature to make sure we don't give the governor a blank check. Some of the governor's Big Oil campaign backers just endorsed Carl Trujillo. The Big Oil front group--Reform New Mexico Now PAC--is funded by the same oil companies that are working to roll back our most important air and water protections. The governor's Big Oil cronies would rather see Carl Trujillo in office, not David Coss. We can't afford to give Susana Martinez a rubber stamp legislature...

This might be just the tonic Coss needed. He's been struggling because of concerns over whether he can be effective as both Santa Fe's part-time Mayor and as a legislator.

Coss and a slew of other Dem candidates who saw the PAC get involved in their campaigns filed an ethics complaint with the AG and Sec. of State to get as much juice out of this late news as possible.

Eyebrows have also been raised over the role of Speaker Ben Lujan's son in the race. Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan has given money and gone door to door for Coss in what has looked to some like a revenge move. Trujillo nearly beat Lujan's father in the 2010 Dem primary.

Trujillo tried to get the monkey off his back with this Sunday statement:

Sometimes we get support from organizations who may have agendas that are likely to be at odds with our interests...Reform New Mexico.. sent out their mailers without our involvement or approval, and we don’t know their reasons. Perhaps they have their own genuine, legitimate concerns about Mr. Coss, because while David Coss and I, as fellow Democrats, may not be that far apart in our specific stands on specific issues, we seem to have very different views about the political process when it comes to fairness, openness and transparency.

Trujillo, who was not far behind Coss in insider polling recently, may have been shot in the foot at the last minute by Susana's groupies. He had established himself as an independent Dem, calling Coss and Lujan "the machine." But if this last minute development means he's perceived as an agent for the R's who might help tip the balance of power in the House, Trujillo may be in for another close call Tuesday night, but not a space in the winner's circle.

OILING IT UP

The oil-financed PAC group is also playing in the Dem primary of conservative Senator John Arthur Smith of Deming. He faces a challenge from retired PNM electrician Larry Martinez of Lordsburg. The oil super PAC's radio ad praises Smith for being an eduction reformer, while attacking Martinez for being a captive of the education unions.

Smith, chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, might want to say to the oil-financed PAC: "Don't do me any favors."

Smith is expected to win his primary and the general election and will face a Senate full of progressives as well as some moderates who have grown weary of his non-stop conservatism even as the public indicates it wants a somewhat more activist agenda from Santa Fe. This backing from a PAC associated with Martinez is not going to help him calm down segments of of the Senate caucus.

If the oil-backed group is trying to do Susana's dirty work in Dem races so she can keep her fingerprints off of them and not have Dem voters know what she's up to, all we can say is that we've spotted the elephant in the room---and it looks just like Susana Martinez.

LATE BREAKING AND EXCLUSIVE

Here are what the top sources in New Mexico politics are saying on key Dem Senate races this Primary election eve:

--State Senator David Ulibarri looks like a goner. Attorney Maxine Velasquez is positioned for the win.

--State Rep. Eliseo Alcon is in trouble. Challenger Billy Moore could pick him off

---State Sen. Lynda Lovejoy is getting a tough challenge from Bennie Shendo. It could tip either way

--State Senators John Arthur Smith, Pete Campos and Richard Martinez are appearing safe from their primary challengers

--State Senator Phil Griego's race has tightened at the end. A close race is expected.

--Rep. Bill O'Neill will coast to a primary victory in ABQ's North Valley

No guarantees, but that's what the top guns say it looks like.

NO DONATIONS HERE 

We take advertising from political candidates, but we don't donate to them. We remind you of that because when we put predictions and the like up, we sometimes get asked whether we have donated. We don't.

SHOWDOWN IN CLOVIS

The Santa Fe Wall-Leaners, Alligators and Insiders are predicting that Governor Martinez may very well suffer a serious political setback tomorrow night.

They see Clovis rancher Pat Woods--publicly opposed by Martinez--as squeaking by Martinez-supported Angie Spears in the GOP primary for the state Senate seat held by retiring Sen. Clint Harden. They are basing their outlook in part on the brutal campaigns, but mostly on history. One of them at the Capitol says:

Joe, Look at the history of this district.  For decades it has been represented by independent-minded senatos. Democrat Johnny Morrow had it then Republicans Pat Lyons and now Clint Harden. All of them have been east siders with a mind of their own. Woods follows in that tradition, Spears does not because of her backing by Martinez and the go-for-the-jugular campaign that her political advisers have run.

That's one of the more persuasive arguments we've heard in favor of Woods, but the attacks on him have been absolutely brutal and continue until the last minute. Suspense is the final adjective to describe the Showdown in Clovis. No one will be sure until tomorrow night.

(We have special staffing in place to cover the Showdown in Clovis).

THE POWER AND THE MIGHT

All the power and might of the New Mexican governorship has been corralled by Jay McCleksey in an effort to avoid the first major political embarrassment for the popular Republican Governor.

For example, there is this flyer condemning rancher Woods for taking $1.7 million in  federal agricultural subsidies. But this might be the overreach of overreaches in the agriculture-heavy east side. A Woods supporter comes with the rebuttal:

Good luck, Governor,  on getting support from the agricultural community again. Agriculture is a huge part of New Mexico’s economy and the government subsidies that farmers collect go right into that economy. They also pay taxes. The nimrods who put this mailer together don’t know much when they say that Pat will promote even more subsides. Farm subsidies are a federal program authorized by the US Congress.  

How are these subsidies any different from federal funds that come into this state for the national labs and military bases? For that matter, how are they different from all the money that Jay McCleskey takes out of Susana PAC?

Looking at the PAC financial report since June 2011, I add up close to $150,000 paid directly to McCleskey. Then there is the money he gets by donating PAC funds to candidates. He then works as their consultant and gets that money and more back into his business...

Like we said, this campaign has been absolutely brutal and there is no way Susana gains anything--even if Angie wins tomorrow night.

Insiders report that Angie was emotional a recent forum where she was accused of mud slinging. You have to feel for her. She and her family are well-respected members of the community and she could never have anticipated she would become the focal point of one the most contested GOP senate primaries in modern history. (A Spears supporter says she was peppered with questions, but was not emotional).

This gubernatorial decision to go so overboard in a GOP primary will be long-remembered as one of the great overreaches in state politics. How could Susana let Jay go after the federal agricultural subsides?

And when has a Guv's top political aide become a statewide issue? And Jay is. Woods--in his own version of the overreach--has bought time on the statewide airwaves of KRQE-TV to run his anti-McCleskey TV ad. All this for a GOP primary in Clovis that will attract less than 5,000 voters. Clearly, Pat Woods is determined to take down McCleskey as much as he is Spears--even if he dies trying.
 
Folks, things are so stirred up in Clovis, an F-5 tornado out there couldn't compete.

KEY RACES

The Showdown in Clovis and other key legislative primaries from around the state, courtesy of newsman Milan Simonich. And The AP comes with this legislative primary preview.

SO MUCH MORE

So much to cover now and so little time. Readers help out as in this dispatch from an Alligator who points out that Clovis is far from the only GOP primary race where intra-party warfare is going on. They tune in on one that has been rarely mentioned:

...It's not only going on in Clovis, it's also going on in the Albuquerque area. The same "outside forces" working in Clovis recruited and are helping to fund a primary opponent against ABQ GOP west side State Rep. Tom Anderson.  

This "outside force" also has sent out hit pieces about Tom. And the "outside force" has ensured that Tom is not able to raise the necessary funds to respond...Tom's opponent--Peggy Muller Aragon--is the wife of ABQ attorney Robert Aragon who Martinez appointed to the state Board of Finance.

Robert Aragon, the son of former Dem State Rep. Bennie Aragon, is a former Dem, ( We're told he changed his registration to Republican earlier this year). He's been a longtime supporter of Republican Martinez and was removed as a Dem Party ward chairman because of his GOP politics.

And was that Dominic Aragon we saw as one of the officers of the now hyper-controversial Reform NM Now PAC? Sure was. Dominic is the nephew of Robert. A few years ago he ran in the Dem primary for the state House seat now held by Rep. Moe Maestas. Dominic is still calling himself a Democrat, but it is Uncle Robert calling the shots for his nephew.

GETTING SLOPPY?

Sometimes it's because you are juggling too many balls. Sometimes it's because the money and power make you sloppy. You be the judge of this one:

Reform New Mexico Now has the same address on Uptown Boulevard in Albuquerque used by Martinez's Susana PAC, as well as the governor's political adviser, Jay McCleskey. 

A Dem campaign operative sends this list of candidates they say are being supported in the primary by Reform NM Now PAC:

RNMN has sent out mailers in at least five Democratic primary elections (candidates supported by McCleskey/Martinez are in bold):

David Coss vs. Carl Trujillo  in northern Santa Fe County
Jack Sullivan vs. Phil Griego Santa Fe County, Parts of Bernalillo, San Miguel, Lincoln, Torrance
Larry Martinez vs. John Arthur Smith
Genevieve Jackson vs. George Munoz
Eliseo Alcon vs. Billy Moore
Eleanor Chavez vs. James Taylor and Michael Padilla in Bern CO

So the super PAC--linked to Susana and Jay--is also helping Democrats? But the Guv's operatives are attacking Republican Pat Woods in Clovis for his past donations to Dem candidates? What's wrong
with that picture.

BALDERAS VS. HEINRICH

Lovefest doesn't even begin to describe it. Last night's one and only TV debate between Dem US Senate contenders Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas had the two young stars of their party acting like they were out on a first date--they were so polite to each other that they almost crossed the line to obsequious. But in the end they both pretty much vindicated themselves when it comes to logic, reasoning and the intellectual ability to serve in the US Senate.

Self-described underdog Balderas gained just by being on the same KOAT debate stage with the ABQ congressman. There was no deer in the headlights demeanor from the Wagon Mound native, but a calm aura of a...well....state auditor.

Heinrich was his usual self--knowledgable and robotic. He is the presumed winner of tomorrow; night's primary, but he has room to improve before he faces off with presumed GOP Senate nominee Heather Wilson. But Wilson is prone to over emoting and the mechanical Heinrich should match up well. Also, unlike other Wilson opponents, he will not be taken out on TV for being ill-informed or fearful.

On the issues, Hector and Martin hit the standard Dem themes--protect Social Security and Medicare, improve education, etc.  While hardly every disagreeing with one another, they frequently bashed Wilson before the statewide audience--no doubt to the delight of Dems on both sides of this primary.

The only moment of tension came when a questioner tried to throw Heinrich off his game on funding for the national labs and state defense bases. Which would he cut if forced to make a choice? Heinrich hung tough saying this was a "false choice" and that he was going to fight for the federal funding and work to have the labs pursue future missions that were worthy of receiving the funding.

That's the right answer for a state increasingly nervous about possible big fed budget cuts, but Wilson was surely taking notes as it was President Obama's budget that recently caused layoffs at Los Alamos national labs.

From the beginning Balderas has been hamstrung by his ambitions for future office. He has not attacked Heinrich for fear of losing and knocking himself permanently off the political stage. His performance last night insures that Heinrich--if elected to the Senate--is not going to hold a grudge, but it also means Balderas basically wrote off any chance of winning. That will be used against him in future runs in the Dem Party when his rivals are sure to say they "will fight harder" than Hector.

But Balderas, an attorney and 38, has come a long way from his nervous Nellie look when he was thrust into the race for state auditor six years ago. He has done his homework and any school teacher will tell you that usually means higher grades.

Like we said, Heinrich, 40, did well but this is a large load being placed on the shoulders of a two-term congressman. Voters generally seem to like the first look they have taken of him, but his
presence last night suggested that voters will want to take a longer, deeper look before giving their final blessing. That's why in this Demorcatic state Heather Wilson still lives.

The full one hour debate is here

ANOTHER TAKE

Reader Joe Campos came with a take on the debate that was not without support in its caustic outlook:

Must have been one of the most boring debates! Martin referred to his opponent as "Hector the Auditor" and Hector kept on using the word "appalling." Did you get anything else out of this debate?

SOWARDS TV

Greg Sowards, the gadfly conservative from Las Cruces challenging former ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, comes with last-minute TV attacking her for--among other things--her 2008 vote to bail out the banks.

If Sowards had gone on the tube for a couple of weeks instead of a couple of days, we might have had an interesting race. As it is, Wilson is polling at 66% in the ABQ Journal poll. She will have some damage to clean up Wednesday morning, but this primary season has been somewhat of a gift for Wilson who gets squeamish when having to deal with the radical fringe of the GOP.

PRC CASH COWS

A late court ruling gave publicly financed ABQ Dem Public Regulation Commission candidates Karen Montoya and Cynthia Hall an extra $60,000 in matching funds to spend. That's in addition to the $30,000 they received when they qualified for public funding, They are flooding the airwaves with last minute TV and radio in an effort to overtake Al Park, who has spent a whopping $150,000 on the contest. He did not take public funding. Here's one of Montoya's TV spots hitting Park, courtesy of the matching funds. Will the last minute money be enough for Montoya--who was running second to Park in our May 22 poll--to pull an upset?

WIENER WORLD

Any broadcaster worth his salt is pulling for a good showing for GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Wiener on Primary Election Night. Cold you imagine if Wiener, under siege since he was caught up in a sex "scandal" last month, actually comes close or even wins his primary challenge over Lonnie Talbert? Talk about a ratings grabber.

Realistically, Wiener was probably taken out when the media sensationalized that photo of Wiener surrounded by a bevy of Phillipino beauties, with the implication that they were hookers in the notorious red light district that was in the area Wiener was visiting. He says he was there with his fiancee. It was a knuckle headed move by the colorful and controversial Wiener, but he fights on--hoping to give all of us on radio and TV something to talk about tomorrow.

And maybe he's on to a little something,

His primary opponent for the mainly NE Heights commission seat is businessman Lonnie Talbert who mailed the flyer posted here (click to enlarge) but had to apologize for wrongfully attacking Wiener. The ABQ Journal printed Talbert's retreat over his statement that Wiener voted in 2008 to buy a downtown ABQ office building and wasted taxpayers money in the process. The problem? Wiener was not even on the commission at the time.

Wiener calls it "outrageous" that he was wronged in a last-minute mailer, but he doesn't stop there. He says that Talbert has made his personal life an issue by running the sensational headlines from Wiener's Philippines excursion in his campaign lit. He says what is good for the Wiener is good for the Talbert. Here he is firing away:

Lonnie Talbert went to court on Jan 31st, 2012  to modify his Child Support Payment agreement.On that date he made a pleading (matter of Public Record) stating that he was unemployed (that he had been "laid off") and asked to have his child support lowered. Only weeks later he opened a campaign account and deposited $50,000 of his own money into this race. he is trying to BUY this election using $50,000 of his own money--instead of taking care of his child support from his first failed marriage!

Wiener sent court documents showing that Talbert had indeed asked for a reduction in child support.

Wiener also points out what he calls Talbert's "job-hopping in the past dozen years, listing eight jobs Talbert has had since Dec. 2001. His latest position is listed by Wiener as a "business development action coach."

No Dem is running for the seat so the winner of the GOP primary goes on the commission. And it seems even if Wiener's political days end up being over, Lonnie Talbert has the potential to be almost as colorful--and maybe controversial.

A CANDIDATE PLEA

And the email keeps coming, some with an air of desperation. Santa Fe County Commissioner and northern Democratic Public Regulation Commission candidate Virginia Vigil, writes:

Please review the email that summarizes a robo call that came from a phone number 505.216.6900.  I also received this call! The robo call falsely states if one selects me for the PRC, that I supported Jim Hall, a Republican for the state legislature in Los Alamos. As you know, County Commission's submit a replacement for Legislators when there is a vacancy.  Jim Hall's name was submitted by the Los Alamos County Council and appointed by Governor Martinez! Neither I nor any other members of Santa Fe County Commission ever considered Jim Hall.  How does one reverse a lie like this?

Reversing a lie is never easy, Virginia. We find it helps if you just keep telling the truth.

As for that Dem PRC race, our May 22 poll showed Santa Fe County Clerk Valerie Espinoza as the leader. We'll track it for you tomorrow night.

See you on the radio at 5 p.m. today.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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