Here's a heads-up on what remain the tightest (or more interesting) state House races as we hit the final stretch. If you live in any of these districts you're going to want to make sure you vote. After all, you just might be the tie-breaker.

We compiled our list from the consultants, sources on the ground and our reliable Alligators---our longtime blog sources. Here we go.

House District 38---We're back in central New Mexico including Socorro with Republican Rebecca Dow and Democrat Rep. Tara Jaramillo. We're told this one remains as tight as the lug nuts on a 56' Chevy.

Joe, As you framed it is very close and getting nasty. Both candidates accuse each other of having their businesses wrongfully benefit from state contracts, although neither appears to be out of line. Much of this is Dow's old district from when she served in the legislature. Jaramillo has voted moderate to try to hold on to the new and still conservative district. It's tight. A Dow win would be a pickup for the GOP and she would be a player for leadership if she gets the win.

House District 68- on ABQ's Westside. Dem Rep. Charlotte Little vs. Republican Nathan Brooks. The Alligator take: 

Republicans are crying in their beer over this one. Little only won in '22 by 35 votes but the race has now broken her way since it was revealed that Brooks beat up his then wife in 2005 outside a Las Vegas Nevada liquor store and also has some DWI's. He says he's a reformed alcoholic but you can almost hear his support collapsing. The GOP kicks themselves over losing a golden opportunity and Little dodges a bullet.

House District 31--in the far ABQ NE Heights. We covered this yesterday and a little more today. The latest from a consultant:

Nothing appears to have changed. It's a toss up with maybe a slight lean to the Republican but the district is starting to look a bit more Democratic. Republican Nicole Chavez has been trailed by controversy but the GOP is determined to keep their only ABQ House seat. Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo is determined to take it from them. Bottom line? Too wild to call. 

Silva & Winterrowd

House District 52 in the Las Cruces and Otero county area. Our take:

This one features Dem community activist Sarah Silva and Republican Elizabeth Winterrowd who almost won the seat last time. Silva replaced Jon Hill, the winner of the Dem primary but who passed away. 

Dems have come with enough money for Silva who joined the race late, but she is very liberal and the seat was held by conservative Dem Willie Madrid. Look for a close one here. 

House District 36--This is a Las Cruces seat held by Dem. Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee,  who is being challenged by Republican Kimberly Skaggs. The consultant take:

Joe, is this race being painted as close and Nathan is raising a bunch of money because of it? The district performance is 54 percent but he did have a close one against Skaggs last time, 52 to 48. The polling has indicated Skaggs is again making noise. We would call this one likely Democratic with an outside chance for an upset. Still Dems are watching it closely for any late GOP surge.

House District 39 based in Grant County in the SW--This is the kind of race that political oldtimer and lobbyist Scott Scanland would call an "upset special." Our take:

GOP state Rep. Luis Terrazas is well-liked in the district. The problem? Democratic performance is 56 percent and newcomer Gabby Begay, 35, is coming on strong. Begay is making Terrazas' support of public school vouchers a key issue. He's going tough on crime, calling for an end to "catch and release.  He owns a funeral home and understands all kinds of death--including the political kind which he is working hard to avoid. 

There's several more hot ones out there in the state House and Senate and we'll pick up our coverage of them next week. All 70 House seats are up for election this year along with the 42 state Senate seats.

THE 31 BATTLE

Here's a bit of equal time for House 31 Republican hopeful Estrada-Bustillo after we posted a mailer from Republican Nicole Chavez which said she is being unfairly attacked by her opponent for wanting to "ban abortion:

It's a whopper for Republican Nicole Chavez to say she "does not support banning abortion," when her positions to restrict abortion access are well documented—from two years ago, as you pointed out--but also from questionnaires she filled out this election. We're making sure voters know that not only is she opposed to abortion, she's the NM leader of an extremist anti-abortion group anti-abortion group. I guess she figures that since she's already lied about her education credentials and where she lives so what’s one more lie?   

Whatever you do, dear District 31 voters, don't get between these two.

YVETTE'S VIRTUES 

Reader Michael Hays writes: 

Joe, Yvette's virtues, as you summarize them, alienate me. You write, "her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years." I have never regarded "tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality," and "consistency" as virtues. I think that any representative should have an open mind to new ideas and enough humility to admit mistakes. I also think that "consistency" is an overrated virtue by comparison to reasoned flexibility of thought; good reasons to change one's mind should change it, and they should be used to explain what "gotcha" journalists and political opponents want to charge to flip-flopping. 

Interesting take. But we see Herrell's strong personality standing out in the context of our current congressional delegation. As for her "never back down mentality" we see that as a campaign virtue not as a governing one.

 HARVEST TIME

This photo we've run for a number of years brought a phone call the other day from a former Democratic state representative:

Joe, this is Dan Silva. That photo on the blog is of chile I harvested at my place in the South Valley and stored in my garage. At this time, I am heavy into the green chile. You have to balance things out, you know. 

Silva, 80, served in the state House for nearly 25 years, from 1984 to 2008 and was chairman of the House Transportation Committee. He later became a lobbyist, a job he is now "winding down. His son, Dominic Silva, is a longtime Roundhouse lobbyist.

Silva had a productive career in Santa Fe but by the looks of that chile he had to set aside his true calling to serve in La Politica. Enjoy the harvest, Dan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Donald Trump could see New Mexico's blue skies before the books are closed on Campaign '24.

That's according to chatter circulating in law enforcement circles who are among the first to know of any presidential candidate visit since security is paramount.

New Mexico long ago shed its role as a swing state by voting Democratic in every presidential election since 2008 but that hasn't stopped Trump from visiting here during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. A visit this time would not be unusual.

The presidency hangs on the seven battleground states but Trump has been straying from them to make a national splash, making a stop in California and soon at New York City's Madison Square Garden.

The most recent polling has Trump getting 41 percent of the state's Hispanic voters. That would be a modern record for a GOP presidential contender if it should translate to Election Day. 

In 2004, exit polls showed George W. Bush garnered 40 percent of the Hispanic vote here. 

A NM stop courting the Hispanic vote could translate into positive coverage for Trump across the nation. 

Sources say that an advance team has scoped out a possible Trump visit. There are no other details such as when and where he would speak, if a visit materializes. 

POSSIBLE IMPACT

The only race that the former president might directly impact here with a personal visit would be the southern congressional district where former GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, a longtime Trump supporter who voted against certifying Joe Biden's 2020 presidential win, is running 4 points behind (49-45) Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the late polling.

Herrell had House Speaker Mike Johnson campaign for her in Las Cruces in August. Wednesday the speaker will be back to share the stage with Herrell at a Carlsbad rally in SE NM. The Vasquez campaign reaction:

He’s here in NM-02 to spread his MAGA extremist agenda and back Yvette Herrell’s anti-choice, anti-democracy, anti-New Mexico campaign.

If Trump does touch down in New Mexico he is sure to be greeted by protestors as well as well-wishers. Polling has Harris leading him here 50-41 with 3 percent for RFK Jr. who has withdrawn from the race but whose name remains on the state ballot.

Of course, in Trump world the point of the visit could just be to further Democratic panic over the state of the race by spending time away from the battlegrounds

ABORTION FOCUS IN 31

(click to enlarge)

The race for the sole remaining GOP state House seat in Albuquerque is getting hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot in July. 

Republican Nicole Chavez, busted for misstating her educational credentials on the ABQ Journal questionnaire, is fighting back against Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo who is attacking her on all fronts including the hot-button abortion issue.

In this mailer going out in District 31 in ABQ's far NE Heights, Chavez blasts Estrada-Bustillo for a mailer her opponent sent out attacking Chavez for supporting an abortion ban. The Chavez mailer says:

The Truth: Nicole Chavez does not support banning abortion. 

Chavez does not mention abortion on her web site and the Journal questionnaire for the general election did not ask her position. 

On the 2022 general election questionnaire--when she ran for House District 28--Chavez said this:

Q: Given the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, do you support or oppose codifying abortion protections in state law? And do you support or oppose enacting any restrictions on abortion in New Mexico?

Republicans are shrugging off Chavez's questionnaire fiasco over her education, just as they do with charges against Trump, and betting that she can get by Estrada-Bustillo by calming fears that she is an anti-abortion zealot.

The race looks like it could be a real squeaker with the district now 39 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent. 

GOP state Rep. Bill Rehm is retiring, leaving a vacancy and Chavez and Estrada-Bustillo are locked in a heated battle to replace him. It is a must-win for the GOP to avoid a humiliating House shut-out of the minority party in the state's largest county.

GOOD AND BAD

The good news for Martin Heinrich is that he continues to hold a commanding polling lead over Republican Nella Domenici in his bid for a third US Senate term. The bad news? Nationally, the GOP is now expected to take control of the Senate from the Dems and dash  Heinrich's hopes to be chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. 

The Journal survey from Oct 10-18--has the Senate race 51-40 for Heinrich, outside the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percent. 

The Senate race went bust in the Journal's first poll in late September that showed Heinrich ahead 50-38.

A committee chairmanship is a prize a senator covets after two terms but if Heinrich does win re-election and the GOP takes senate control, he'll have to wait for a Dem majority to get that reward. Meanwhile, he does sit on the powerful Appropriations Committee which isn't too shabby.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Opportunity is staring New Mexico Republicans in the face. Will they seize the moment? 

That's the story line emerging from this year's polling of state elections, with the latest presidential results confirming that an oversized number of Hispanic voters are drifting away from the Democrats.

In the ABQ Journal Oct. 10-18 poll in which VP Harris leads Trump 50 to 41 percent, Hispanic support for the GOP nominee is at or near an historic high of 41 percent. 

VP Harris is making up for this slack in majority-minority New Mexico with Anglo women voters, many of them animated by the abortion issue. Says the poll:

Donald Trump has clearly made inroads with Hispanic voters, but despite that, Kamala Harris has done quite well among Anglo voters to largely offset that.

It is the economic unease and perhaps some backlash against a too woke Dem party that has some Hispanics, usually a loyal Democratic bloc, moving away.

This Hispanic drift probably won't make much of a difference in the presidential race, although Harris is polling worse than Biden did in the state at this point in the campaign. Biden received 54 percent to Trump's 41 in the Journal's Oct-23-28, 2020 survey.

Ditto for Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez whose 51 percent Hispanic polling support is on the low side (Yvette Herrell gets 40) but he also seems to be making it up with women voters. But that race could get even closer if the late voter shift is toward Trump. He leads by just four in the Journal poll and Herrell came with an abortion spot to try to peel off some women.

OUTSIDE THE BOX

But what does this drift mean for the future of state politics. Or a better question would be, what can it mean? 

If the GOP starts thinking outside the box it could mean the start of a desperately needed turnaround.  Here are several ideas offered free of charge to our forlorn GOP friends:

--In the '25 session of the Legislature make your centerpiece legislation a proposal eliminating the state income tax on households making less than $45,000 a year. Why $45K? Because it is those customers McDonald's is targeting with its $5 value meals, reporting that they are the consumers hurting most from inflation. And many of those hamburger and french fry lovers happen to be people of color.

The tax cut could be easily afforded. Heck, with our state's oil boom savings we could buy a foreign country. But for the worry warts, pass the tax cut and put a sunset on it of five years in case oil prices go into a prolonged slump.

Second, sponsor a bill to repeal all state taxation on Social Security income. (Yes, we've kinda changed our mind on this one). Lawmakers have done that for singles making less than $100,000 and households under $150,000. Even though this cut would benefit the more affluent, the messaging for the GOP--combined with the elimination of the state income tax--is sublime. 

Unclench your tight fists, GOP, and watch with wonder how it works.

Third, stop complaining about the Democratic Emerge group that recruits solid candidates and organize a Republican version. That way there are able and fresh faces instead of GOP candidates like we've seen this year that lie on the newspaper's questionnaire or appallingly ask voter forgiveness for beating up their wife in front of a liquor store and leaving her with a purple eye and spitting blood from her mouth. Really.

So will the GOP stop staring at the opportunity and start acting? They don't have anything to lose. They've already lost everything here.

TRAIL DUST 

By our estimate the election is over for about 17 percent of the expected voters.

The SOS reported Monday that so far 155,660 ballots have been cast early including this past Saturday, the kick-off for widespread in-person early voting which always draws a big crowd. 

With our expected total turnout at 900,000 that represents the aforementioned 17 percent of voters who can now relax. Unfortunately they still have to watch all those TV ads during their favorite programs. All the statewide early turnout numbers released Monday are here. . . 

From the SOS:

The Secretary of State’s Office has created an election misinformation fact check page at NMVOTE.ORG/Rumor. The Office also provides information and resources to educate voters about the potential risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), deepfakes, and their potential impact on the manipulation of election information. These resources can be accessed at SOS.NM.GOV/AI. . .

Today is the final day to request an absentee ballot for the Nov. 5 election. The link to do that is here.  

DAY IN THE LIFE

MLG on rising and shining:

I typically wake up around 6:30. I get up and I make a beeline for hot coffee. I drink coffee until I’m asleep — cold, hot, lukewarm. I don’t typically eat breakfast. We have a little space downstairs, and I try to work out around 7:15. 

I work out with a girlfriend and we do it via video with a trainer. He makes me do weight training for good bone health, which is what women my age, and frankly women of all ages, should do. I’d like to do it two or three times a week, but these days it’s once or twice a month.

The Guv says bedtime is midnight to 2 A.M. Well, that explains the coffee.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

On the strength of abortion, a gerrymandered district that is finally taking hold and his incumbency, US Rep. Gabe Vasquez takes a four point lead into the final weeks of his re-election effort against Republican Yvette Herrell. 

The ABQ Journal poll, conducted October 10-18, has Vasquez leading Herrell 49 to 45 percent with only five percent undecided in the state's 2nd Congressional District, often referred to as the southern district. 

The poll's margin of error in this nationally watched race as Republicans battle to keep control of the US House is plus or minus 4.8 percent.

While definitively leaning Democratic, the contest is not closed out but does show Herrell needs a last hours turnaround to shake what appears to be a solid lead by her foe who is seeking his second term.

In two earlier polls--in late August and late September--Herrell trailed Vasquez by an eyebrow raising nine points. Those surveys were seen as revealing the trend but missing the nuance that is traditionally provided by the more expansive and expensive Journal polls. 

While Herrell would have liked a poll that showed her closer than a four point deficit, this survey puts to bed fears that her partisans would give up all hope in the final days. 

In the Journal poll released October 20, 2022, Vasquez led Herrell 47 to 45 percent. Vasquez went on to to win by a mere 0.7 percent or 1,350 votes. 

But that year there was no Roe V. Wade Supreme Court ruling hovering over the race and Herrell was the incumbent after beating Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in her re-election bid in 2020. 

'22 was also a "red wave" year when dire forecasts for the Republicans in the US House failed to materialize. 

TABLES TURNED

This year the tables are turned. 

--Abortion is now a nationalized issue driving turnout among Democratic women. 

--Vasquez is the incumbent and has out-raised Herrell $6.7 million to $4.1 million. (Outside PAC money is also playing a major role in the race.)

--The national environment appears more neutral for the Democrats than two years ago.

Herrell has begun trying to fade the abortion issue, putting up a new TV spot that tries to soften her tone, saying she is not in favor of a national abortion plan and supports abortion in the case of rape, incest and life of the mother. 

But the pro-choice Dems keep hammering Herrell with her earlier damning quote:

I’ve carried legislation to eliminate late-term abortion. I wish we could have eliminated all abortion in this state.

Vasquez has come with a closing spot defending his record on crime which the GOP has been attacking. The ad is narrated by a Hispanic man with an accent. More on that below.

Crucially, this district no longer appears to be a true swing district.

The 2021 gerrymander by the Dem dominated state legislature removed conservative precincts from the district in Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties and added moderate Dem precincts on ABQ's westside and South Valley. 

If Joe Biden had run in today's southern district in 2020, he would have won it by 5.7 percent. That's a true Democratic lean.

THE DEMOS

In the Journal poll women favor Vasquez, but not by as much as Dems running in the presidential and senate race: 

Vasquez had a 14-point lead among women voters, with 53% of support among women compared to 39% support for Herrell. Meanwhile, Herrell had a slight edge with male voters, with 50% support among that group compared to 46% support among men for Vasquez.

The poll is mostly good news for Vasquez but there is a yellow flag of caution for him and the Democrats among Hispanic voters:

(in 2022) Vasquez had a large lead among Hispanic voters in the district, with support of 61% of voters in that demographic. Support among that demographic group is not as strong for Vasquez this election cycle. . . Vasquez had support from 51% of Hispanic voters surveyed, while Herrell had 40% support among that group.

The problem, as state Dem strategist Sisto Abeyta has been pointing out, is Hispanic men. 

Many of them feel abandoned by a Democratic party they see focusing too much on on abortion, transgender issues and climate change while failing to adequately address economic concerns and crime, issues high on the list of working-class voters.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff says Hispanic dissatisfaction is now passed the point of simply not voting:

The Hispanic vote is not coalescing among the Democrats in the same manner as it has in prior years. Many Hispanic voters are considering Republican candidates such as Yvette Herrell, such as Donald Trump. 

The potential problem is illustrated in party support for Herrell and Vasquez:

Vasquez had strong support among Democratic voters, with 84% support among that group, Herrell had support among nearly all Republican voters surveyed, with 91% support.

Three prominent conservative Dem Hispanic male state representatives were trounced by progressive women at the June '24 primary, reinforcing the control of the progressive wing of the party. But the poll shows circumstances that could be a building block for the future of a state Republican party that is nearly extinct.  

Meanwhile, Vasquez is in control of his re-election but the road has enough bumps in it for Herrell to keep racing and to do her best to force an accident that could change her fortunes.

SLOW ROLL

The Journal is slow-rolling release of their final polling results in the presidential race. They will be announced this week but they are not highly anticipated as both contests appear closed out with neither presidential camp actively campaigning here.

Trump has consistently trailed Harris by large margins and ditto for and Sen. Heinrich over Republican Nella Domenici.

The other two congressional districts--ABQ area District 1 represented by Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury-- and the 3rd District in the north represented by Dem Tersea Leger Fernandez are safe Democratic seats.

ON THE TRAIL

Steve Jones

Stansbury did debate her opponent, retired Roswell accountant and oil executive Steve Jones, on KOB-TV last week. Fifteen minutes of that 30 minute encounter were posted by the station. 

Jones, a political newcomer at 78 who has not had the resources to run a serious campaign, proved to be an able and intelligent candidate who did not come off extreme in the civil exchange.  

Stansbury came prepared and did nothing to call into question the status of the race.

Vasquez rejected a TV debate with Herrell so the station had her on for a solo interview that can be seen here. 

The sole remaining political debate in the ABQ TV market will apparently come October 27 at ABQ's Congregation Albert. They will host Sen. Heinrich and Nella Domenici for brunch and what will be their second TV face-off. 

That debate is set for 11 A.M. and will be carried by KOB-TV, according to the Congregation. 

Reservations to attend can be made here. 

NELLA'S PURSE

We're not presumptuous enough (or delusional) to believe that she did it for our sake, but right after we posted the Thursday blog reporting that GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenci failed to donate any personal money to her campaign in the latest FEC reporting period--after donating $1.5 million in earlier quarters--she came with $750,000 in new loans (here and here), bringing the total personal funding of her campaign to $2.25 million.

We cautioned on that Thursday blog that she might not be done dipping into her fortune but it is a bit curious considering her lagging position and the limited time left to effectively deploy that cash.

Domenici is worth upwards of $90 million, according to her Senate filings. 

If that figure is accurate, Nella donating $2.25 million is like someone worth $100,000 donating $2,500 to their campaign. 

With that in mind if yer little 'ol blog in any way played a part in Nella reopening her purse, we feel no guilt but we do caution her not to spend it all in one place.

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