On the strength of abortion, a gerrymandered district that is finally taking hold and his incumbency, US Rep. Gabe Vasquez takes a four point lead into the final weeks of his re-election effort against Republican Yvette Herrell. 

The ABQ Journal poll, conducted October 10-18, has Vasquez leading Herrell 49 to 45 percent with only five percent undecided in the state's 2nd Congressional District, often referred to as the southern district. 

The poll's margin of error in this nationally watched race as Republicans battle to keep control of the US House is plus or minus 4.8 percent.

While definitively leaning Democratic, the contest is not closed out but does show Herrell needs a last hours turnaround to shake what appears to be a solid lead by her foe who is seeking his second term.

In two earlier polls--in late August and late September--Herrell trailed Vasquez by an eyebrow raising nine points. Those surveys were seen as revealing the trend but missing the nuance that is traditionally provided by the more expansive and expensive Journal polls. 

While Herrell would have liked a poll that showed her closer than a four point deficit, this survey puts to bed fears that her partisans would give up all hope in the final days. 

In the Journal poll released October 20, 2022, Vasquez led Herrell 47 to 45 percent. Vasquez went on to to win by a mere 0.7 percent or 1,350 votes. 

But that year there was no Roe V. Wade Supreme Court ruling hovering over the race and Herrell was the incumbent after beating Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in her re-election bid in 2020. 

'22 was also a "red wave" year when dire forecasts for the Republicans in the US House failed to materialize. 

TABLES TURNED

This year the tables are turned. 

--Abortion is now a nationalized issue driving turnout among Democratic women. 

--Vasquez is the incumbent and has out-raised Herrell $6.7 million to $4.1 million. (Outside PAC money is also playing a major role in the race.)

--The national environment appears more neutral for the Democrats than two years ago.

Herrell has begun trying to fade the abortion issue, putting up a new TV spot that tries to soften her tone, saying she is not in favor of a national abortion plan and supports abortion in the case of rape, incest and life of the mother. 

But the pro-choice Dems keep hammering Herrell with her earlier damning quote:

I’ve carried legislation to eliminate late-term abortion. I wish we could have eliminated all abortion in this state.

Vasquez has come with a closing spot defending his record on crime which the GOP has been attacking. The ad is narrated by a Hispanic man with an accent. More on that below.

Crucially, this district no longer appears to be a true swing district.

The 2021 gerrymander by the Dem dominated state legislature removed conservative precincts from the district in Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties and added moderate Dem precincts on ABQ's westside and South Valley. 

If Joe Biden had run in today's southern district in 2020, he would have won it by 5.7 percent. That's a true Democratic lean.

THE DEMOS

In the Journal poll women favor Vasquez, but not by as much as Dems running in the presidential and senate race: 

Vasquez had a 14-point lead among women voters, with 53% of support among women compared to 39% support for Herrell. Meanwhile, Herrell had a slight edge with male voters, with 50% support among that group compared to 46% support among men for Vasquez.

The poll is mostly good news for Vasquez but there is a yellow flag of caution for him and the Democrats among Hispanic voters:

(in 2022) Vasquez had a large lead among Hispanic voters in the district, with support of 61% of voters in that demographic. Support among that demographic group is not as strong for Vasquez this election cycle. . . Vasquez had support from 51% of Hispanic voters surveyed, while Herrell had 40% support among that group.

The problem, as state Dem strategist Sisto Abeyta has been pointing out, is Hispanic men. 

Many of them feel abandoned by a Democratic party they see focusing too much on on abortion, transgender issues and climate change while failing to adequately address economic concerns and crime, issues high on the list of working-class voters.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff says Hispanic dissatisfaction is now passed the point of simply not voting:

The Hispanic vote is not coalescing among the Democrats in the same manner as it has in prior years. Many Hispanic voters are considering Republican candidates such as Yvette Herrell, such as Donald Trump. 

The potential problem is illustrated in party support for Herrell and Vasquez:

Vasquez had strong support among Democratic voters, with 84% support among that group, Herrell had support among nearly all Republican voters surveyed, with 91% support.

Three prominent conservative Dem Hispanic male state representatives were trounced by progressive women at the June '24 primary, reinforcing the control of the progressive wing of the party. But the poll shows circumstances that could be a building block for the future of a state Republican party that is nearly extinct.  

Meanwhile, Vasquez is in control of his re-election but the road has enough bumps in it for Herrell to keep racing and to do her best to force an accident that could change her fortunes.

SLOW ROLL

The Journal is slow-rolling release of their final polling results in the presidential race. They will be announced this week but they are not highly anticipated as both contests appear closed out with neither presidential camp actively campaigning here.

Trump has consistently trailed Harris by large margins and ditto for and Sen. Heinrich over Republican Nella Domenici.

The other two congressional districts--ABQ area District 1 represented by Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury-- and the 3rd District in the north represented by Dem Tersea Leger Fernandez are safe Democratic seats.

ON THE TRAIL

Steve Jones

Stansbury did debate her opponent, retired Roswell accountant and oil executive Steve Jones, on KOB-TV last week. Fifteen minutes of that 30 minute encounter were posted by the station. 

Jones, a political newcomer at 78 who has not had the resources to run a serious campaign, proved to be an able and intelligent candidate who did not come off extreme in the civil exchange.  

Stansbury came prepared and did nothing to call into question the status of the race.

Vasquez rejected a TV debate with Herrell so the station had her on for a solo interview that can be seen here. 

The sole remaining political debate in the ABQ TV market will apparently come October 27 at ABQ's Congregation Albert. They will host Sen. Heinrich and Nella Domenici for brunch and what will be their second TV face-off. 

That debate is set for 11 A.M. and will be carried by KOB-TV, according to the Congregation. 

Reservations to attend can be made here. 

NELLA'S PURSE

We're not presumptuous enough (or delusional) to believe that she did it for our sake, but right after we posted the Thursday blog reporting that GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenci failed to donate any personal money to her campaign in the latest FEC reporting period--after donating $1.5 million in earlier quarters--she came with $750,000 in new loans (here and here), bringing the total personal funding of her campaign to $2.25 million.

We cautioned on that Thursday blog that she might not be done dipping into her fortune but it is a bit curious considering her lagging position and the limited time left to effectively deploy that cash.

Domenici is worth upwards of $90 million, according to her Senate filings. 

If that figure is accurate, Nella donating $2.25 million is like someone worth $100,000 donating $2,500 to their campaign. 

With that in mind if yer little 'ol blog in any way played a part in Nella reopening her purse, we feel no guilt but we do caution her not to spend it all in one place.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.