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Sunday, September 07, 2008

Saturday Night Fever: Sassy Sarah In The House; Alaskan Heats Up The Desert; Rocks ABQ Crowd With Newfound Star Power 

Whatever "it" is, Sarah Palin's got it. The fresh GOP VP nominee and Alaska governor showed her stuff to an adoring crowd of over 6,000 at the ABQ Convention Center Saturday night. And if her newfound star power wasn't enough, the McCain campaign trotted out superstar actor Robert Duvall to double the pleasure of the Republican faithful. It was an unmistakable case of Saturday Night Fever and the McCain camp, struggling to get a handle on Battleground New Mexico, had to be pleased, even if some of the crowd was asking, "John Who?" ((Video)(AP coverage)

Dems organized a well-covered protest--a tradition at these events for both parties--but there was no denying that the Palin Presence fed right into the electorate's soft spot for the next new thing. For the 72 year old McCain, new, as Martha Stewart would say, is a "good thing."

PALIN POWER?


The ABQ rally could not have come at a better time for McCain. CNN has NM leaning Obama. Other national media say it's still a toss-up. Our sense is that there is plenty of time for either side to turn it their way. The verdict is far from in. A central question is whether Sassy Sarah, who is turning on the GOP base, will help to renew McCain's campaign here.

The freshly minted GOP prez ticket arrived at Cutter Aviation in ABQ late Saturday afternoon. McCain's wife, Cindy, was also on the trip. Meanwhile, not to be forgotten, Obama's campaign announced Saturday he will do a northern NM visit Sept. 18. (All photos by Mark Bralley.)

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, February 25, 2016

The Imagination Gap: Susana Says Dems Lack It, But Where's Hers? Plus: Berry's Bus Meeting Gets Chaotic And Problems Unpadding City Of Santa Fe's Padded Payroll  

During one of her post legislative appearances Governor Martinez trotted out the shopworn idea of "right-to-work" as a panacea to bring jobs to her state which now sports the highest unemployment rate in the nation.  She claimed the Democrats lacked "imagination" for blocking what she called her "reform agenda" as she fell back on RTW as the chief plank of her skimpy economic program. RTW first popped up here when John Travolta was dancing in "Saturday Night Fever." Study after study fails to make a link between it and robust economic growth. Imagine that. . .

Martinez never frankly discusses our egregious jobs situation and these days pivots to her "all crime all the time" agenda. She is now warning legislators who did not go along with the crime theme that they would "have to answer" for it at the ballot box in November when all of them are up for election.

The Governor's decision to cuddle up to crime and cede the important issues of jobs, economic growth and the future by making the esoteric RTW her fall back position is looking more risky as the state continues to get crushed by falling energy prices and no economic growth. For many voters outside of ABQ, where the economic wreckage is especially acute, talking about crime fighting measures that are mainly for the big city may fall flat. And when you have 10,000 applicants for 290 ABQ Cheesecake Factory jobs, it's not an easy sell here in the metro.

Martinez has disengaged from the economic wreckage throughout her tenure, aided and abetted by a Republican business and media establishment that now clearly see that her agenda has not worked and that we are falling further behind. Still, they can't bring themselves to reject her because they can't bring themselves to support any Democrat.

If Gov. Martinez wants more "imagination" in our public policy, maybe she should call Washington and get an economic stimulus package moving in Congress for states that are in recession. Her state is halfway there. The number to the capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121.

By the way, Sinatra did a pretty cool job in this jazzy rendition of the song "Imagination." We dedicate it today to Keith Gardner. . .

BERRY'S BUSES (CONT)

ABQ Nob Hill businessman Steve Schroeder has withdrawn his effort to recall ABQ Dem SE Heights City Councilor Pat Davis. He's been upset with Mayor Berry and Davis over the city's $119 million plan for a bus rapid transit plan (ART) that would run through Nob Hill. He's still mad but the recall effort was going nowhere and while Davis supports ART in concept, he continues to hedge over details. Many of liberal constituents want the bus plan while businesses continue to organize against it.

Berry is in a hurry to break ground as opposition builds. The city continues to hold public meetings on the controversial plan and blog reader Frank Gilmer reports from the one held Wednesday night:

The ART meeting was at the old library at Edith and Central. It turned into a shouting match. Meeting presenters, after having technical problems trying to show a video, told us to break up into small groups and "mitigate" or ask questions. Former ABQ City Councilor Pete Dinelli asked that the overflow crowd instead be given a 15-minute opportunity to ask questions. Denied. Some unnamed activist then asked that those who were against the "done deal" to raise their hands. The "against" were certainly in the majority.

The newspaper reports the meeting was indeed chaotic:

A public meeting erupted into shouts of opposition and chaos late Wednesday as city officials tried to explain the Albuquerque Rapid Transit project to an angry crowd. It was the first of a series of five meetings. . .to address construction plans for the $119 million project — which would involve a system of dedicated bus lanes and stations along Central Avenue, the old Route 66.  One woman held a “Stop Ruining My Neighborhood” sign. Others shouted out questions and interrupted city transit officials who were trying to get everyone to break into small groups for more focused discussion.

Back to Dinell who lost to Berry for mayor in 2013, but says he's gratified that he recently helped kill Berry's legislative proposal to allow retired law enforcement officers to return to work at APD while still keeping their pensions. Now he tells us he is going for a kill on ART. Of the meeting, he writes:

What I did learn is this project seems to be a done deal and City Hall intends to break ground in May, whether or not all the funding is in place and regardless of public opposition. The ART bus project reminds me of when City Hall crammed urban renewal down our throats where the existing convention center and civic plaza now sits. Urban renewal destroyed downtown and ART as presented will destroy Route 66 and especially Nob Hill. City Hall has the nerve to suggest “loans” to now thriving businesses to get them through the one year construction phase. I strongly recommend people contact their City Councilor and encourage them to stop the ART project from starting and until the public is satisfied. Other meetings scheduled are: Feb. 25, 6:00 pm at Immanuel Presbyterian Church at Central and Carlisle for Nob Hill and University segments, March 1, 6:00 pm at the Old Town police substation, Central and Rio Grande for Old Town Segments, March 2 at Pat Baca Library at Central and Unser for West Central segments, March 3, 6:00 am at the Alice K. Hoppes African American Pavilion, 300 San Pedro

Democrat Dinelli is also asking Councilor Pat Davis to take an active role in halting ART.

ALL IN THE FAMILY 

Family ties go deep in Santa Fe and we're starting to believe that's the fundamental problem in resolving that city's $18 million budget crisis. They need to do layoffs, early buy-outs and furloughs but everyone is related to everyone else and the politicians can't bring themselves to take the heat resulting from unpadding the padded payroll.

No one wants to see more lost jobs, but the city council and mayor are now proposing to increase the dreaded and unfair gross receipts tax to avoid hard but necessary choices. They also want to raise property taxes and rob the water utility fund to keep the payroll party going. They propose to do only $4 million in budget cuts. That's a recipe for more hurt for already hard hit Santa Fe working families.

Is it fair to the thousands of working class waiters, waitresses and laborers in one of the nation's tourism centers to be carrying on their backs much higher paid city employees whose jobs, according to various comparison studies, are not needed?  It is the rank and file private sector workers who will pay most of the increased taxes and higher rents that will result from this political family protection act the council has undertaken.

The Santa Fe fiscal follies were camouflaged for years by the booming bull market in tourism and the accompanying tax revenue. That's gone--maybe forever. A much poorer city population shouldering the burden resulting from the carelessness of a political class with a major case of myopia is no way to run the Santa Fe railroad. . .

At a recent hearing of the ABQ City Council's finance committee the news wasn't very inspiring. City Councilor Ken Sanchez pointed to prospective budget deficits in the years ahead as the city continues to wrestle with weak growth and loss of revenue from the state. (Reader Charles Arasim sent this video.) City officials say they use conservative income projections and that the budget holes will be filled but it's a reminder of how ABQ remains on a tight fiscal leash.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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Friday, October 20, 2006

The Crazy Week To Come; Fear & Panic And All That Good Stuff, Plus: We're On The Campaign Trail Across Our Enchanting Land 

Next week will probably be the craziest and dirtiest one of Campaign 06' as the contenders, aided by consultants with one track minds, pour liters of drudge across our Enchanted Land in a final frenzied effort to move Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico to their side.

In a prelude of what is to come, there were new charges Thursday in the state Treasurer's race; Gary King's campaign launched a "truth squad" to unveil "Bibb's Fibs," a reference to R attorney general nominee Jim Bibb, and there was a flurry of bottom-of-the barrel stuff flying across the Internet regarding GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson. And then there were those direct mails pieces dripping with mud and jamming mailboxes from Cruces to Chama.

Party veterans on both sides tell me they are most worried (no, freaking out!) about turnout. None of them are ecstatic about the number of requests thus far for absentee ballots in Bernalillo county and fear the negative drumbeat to come could turn-off a good chunk of the electorate making it even harder to get them involved in this thing.

Around the end of the month voters will start tuning out the drumbeat (if they haven't already) as they and the media get more skeptical of late accusations. Also, early in-person voting starts Saturday and thousands will cast their votes around the state by the end of next week. With as much as 60% of the total vote cast early, the candidates will try to scare em' early.

THE LONG VIEW

This is my ninth New Mexico gubernatorial campaign so I am used to the screeching, the out-of-bounds attacks and the fear and panic that will soon ensue. I understand it, if still questioning why it is even more fever-pitched and tinged with uglier emotions than earlier days. Perhaps it is because many of those involved have nowhere to turn if they lose. Politics is much more of a profession than it was in 74' when I covered my first Guv race between Dem Jerry Apodaca and R Joe Skeen. There was always passion, but not downright hatred, an emotion driven primarily by fear and perhaps envy. Candidates and consultants lost, but went on to other things. No more. Now it is a permanent campaign with ever more gobs of money.

So sit back and watch the war go by, but don't take it too seriously. Yes, the campaigns are often an ugly sight, but at their bedrock is a magical, ingenious system devised over two centuries ago that is bigger than any of the individuals preparing to wage the final combat of Campaign 2006.

TRAIL SCUTTLEBUTT


That hot race down in Las Cruces to replace retiring GOP state Rep. Ed Boykin sees R and political newcomer Scott Witt picking up the endorsement of the
Las Cruces Sun-News over Dem rival Jeff Steinborn who narrowly lost to Boykin two years ago. But Dems monitoring the action are nowhere near ready to throw in the towel.

"Steinborn and his workers are in the trenches, going door-to-door. The last poll had him up by two. There will be another one done this weekend. This race will come down to voter turnout," offered one of our Gators...

You just can't keep the fireman away from the fire. Veteran AP and ABQ Journal political writer and columnist Larry Calloway is long retired, but the heat being thrown off by the Wilson-Madrid congressional race has got him back on the beat for at least one round of typewriter pounding. And we're glad for that...

In Valencia county, the scuttlebutt has the seat of retiring Dem State Rep. Kandy Cordova looking good for the Dems, but R Jackie Farnsworth remains in a toss-up with Elias Barela in the battle to succeed retiring Rep. Fred Luna, the longest serving member of the Legislature. This is Jackie's third shot at the title...And early optimism has turned cautious over the prospects of Dem Traci Jo Cadigan to unseat GOP Rep. Teresa Zanetti in ABQ's mostly NE Heights district. Insider polling shows Zanetti with a pretty good lead. Traci Jo, though, has the dough, about %40,000 of it, and will be able to mount a strong close....

BOTTOM LINES

I should have started a poll on the poll. The ABQ Journal hits the streets Sunday with its latest numbers on the ABQ Congressional race. After scoring big leads in surveys conducted by out-of-state outfits, the Dems are expecting the Research & Polling survey to show a narrower race between Heather and Patsy. As usual, I have no idea. But pollster Brian Sanderoff and my pack of 1st CD Alligators will and I will post a ditty on that deal for you Sunday. That is, if I don't stay out too late Saturday night partying with Dem party chair John Wertheim and GOP exec Marta Kramer. We're going to karaoke. The featured song of the evening will be "I'm Your Puppet." John will be singing in honor of Big Bill; Marta for Demesia Padilla and James B. Lewis.

And who said politics can't be fun?

See ya' later Gators.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, July 07, 2008

After The Fourth Comes Change On The Fourth Floor; Bill's Staff Chief To Exit, Plus: King Looks At Future, And: Reps Moving Around; What's The Rule? 

Brian Condit
As the bombs burst in air this Fourth of July, politicos wondered what kind of political bombshells would be set off in the second half of what will be an election year for the books. Even as they paused to contemplate what's to come, there was breaking news for the state's political elite to chew on along with their perfectly charbroiled burgers and homemade potato salads. Insiders were spreading word that Big Bill Chief of Staff James Jimenez was calling it quits and would be replaced by Deputy Chief of Staff Brian Condit.

The Jimenez news did not overwhelm--he has two years and two months with the hard driving and hyperactive chief executive--but it did renew speculation on that special session of the NM Legislature on health care that Big Bill assures us is coming. However, there is increasing skepticism from a variety of corners. Whether Bill--and now Condit--can pull off the session--or cancel it with aplomb--will tell us if this lame-duck administration has much juice left or whether Bill and Company, as the kids say, have jumped the shark.

As for Jimenez, he's a government pro who was previously head of the Department of Finance Administration as well as city manager of Rio Rancho. That city now has a new mayor--State Rep. Tom Swisstack--giving rise to speculation that Jimenez might just get called back to duty there. Whatever he does will surely not compete with the thrills and spills of being by Bill's side.

No one is going to begrudge Condit, a former union president, the higher salary he will draw in his new job. If Obama does not get elected and Big Bill finds himself completing the final two years of his second term, Condit and the rest of the Fourth Floor staff may end up eligible for combat pay.

BIDEN AND BILL

Speaking of Bill wandering off the Old Santa Fe Trail, in that regard any good news for Joe Biden's vice-presidential chances is good news for our Guv. If Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is picked by Obama for the veep slot and the team wins the White House, that would mean one less competitor for the post that Richardson covets--Secretary of State. Bill has fallen off the veep lists, but his name is still in circulation for SOS. Biden is still a hot prospect for veep and SOS. Not that this corner is pulling for his departure. Politics around here without Richardson would be like the Fourth of July without fireworks.

SEEKING A KINGDOM?
AG King
One of the many who tried and failed to thwart Richardson's rise to the top may still be infected with Fourth Floor fever. When they were not oohing and aaahing at the annual fireworks display put on by Attorney General Gary King, insiders report that partygoers at his ranch Saturday night were chattering that King, who told me in May of '07 he would not seek the Dem nod again for Guv, has now commissioned a poll to take a look at the political landscape.

Making a third run in 2010 for the Dem nod for Guv would take some political bravery. King would have to give up his chance for a second AG term. But if Bill stays around here, Light Guv Denish stays Light Guv. If she's not an incumbent, the Dem 2010 Dem field could get as crowded as Elephant Butte on the Fourth. On the other hand, an early Denish ascension to the Guv's chair could thin the crowd faster than a Roman Candle burns.

UDALL DYNASTY?

Two open US Senate seats. Two Udalls seeking them. Their slogan? "Vote for the Udall Nearest You." But is the Udall trademark environmentalism becoming a black mark in this era of spiraling gas prices? New York Times coverage here.

MOVING TARGETS

We asked and we received. Asked, that is, for help in determining what happens when a state representative moves out of his legislative district and takes up residence in another part of the state or even another state. The question arose amid speculation that Roswell GOP State Rep. Dan Foley, recently defeated by Denis Kintigh in the June primary, might pull up roots and move to Rio Rancho. Here's some blogging from two state reps who e-mailed First, ABQ GOP Rep. Janice Arnold Jones, a member of the House Voters and Elections Committee.

Our laws on living in the district are "flexible" to say the least. Specifically, the legislator must be registered in their district when they seek office. As long as they claim an intent to return, no problem. Near as I can tell there is no requirement to live in your district once elected...If Dan moved to Rio Rancho, I would argue that there is an ethical and moral requirement, but that is not the law. Incidentally, there are several legislators currently serving who do not live in their districts-- Democrats and Republicans. They may have homes or offices in their districts but they do not live there. Hmmmm.

But ABQ Dem State Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas, an attorney, interprets the law differently, saying if a state rep moves out of his district, he risks losing his seat.

If a state rep moves outside the boundaries of the district the rep is “deemed to have resigned.” The trouble with the statute is it doesn’t state who “deems” it?...Does the speaker of the House announce that someone has been “deemed” to have resigned? If Foley moved to Rio Rancho, I’m sure he would formally resign.

One e-mailer said the county commission (s) in the affected district could declare a resignation in effect when a lawmaker moved out of this district. They would then act to fill the vacancy. I don't, however, recall a commission doing so without the lawmaker announcing his resignation.

What I'm now wondering is which lawmakers Janice is referring to when she says some current legislators own homes or have offices in their districts, but don't live there. That info could make for some lively campaigning.

THE MONTOYA FILES

Still more reaction to our reminisces of that 1976 campaign trip we took with US Senator Joe Montoya and AP writer Bill Feather. Former State Land Commissioner Jim Baca comes with a cool photo from 1936. It pictures Montoya on the left; Sisto Leyba in the center and Fermin Baca, Jim Baca's father, on the right. (Click to enlarge.)

The trio is posing on the steps of the US Capitol. At the time, they were all going to school in Washington, under the auspices of US Senator Dennis Chavez. (How about those "summer white" suits?)

When this photo was snapped, Montoya was 21 years old and a law student at Georgetown University, Chavez's alma mater. He was also elected to the NM House in '36, becoming the youngest state rep in state history. In '38, Montoya graduated from law school and was also re-elected to the state House. Pretty impressive.

In the final analysis, history was not too kind to Joe Montoya, but he certainly made his share of it.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Monday, July 16, 2012

Susana's Ghost Town Turns Out Haunted, Plus: ABQ As Ghost Town; Comments Continue, Also: Three TV Debates Set For Senate Contest 

It's been a long, hot and often tortuous summer for the politicians and those charged with economic development for the state. The announcement of nearly 500 layoffs at three different businesses slammed the ABQ metro in one week, there is continued worry over the future of federal funding for New Mexico and now comes word that a $1 billion "Ghost Town" project for SE NM--so highly touted just two months ago by Governor Martinez--turns out to be haunted by financial demons. The news:

The company behind plans to build a scientific ghost town says it is pulling out of a deal to develop the make-believe city near Hobbs. Pegasus Global Holdings in May announced with much fanfare its selection of a 15-square mile site in Hobbs and Lea County near the Texas border for development of the Center for Innovation, Technology and Testing...Robert Brumley, managing director of the project...said the group was pulling out "due to some very complicated and unforeseen issues with acquiring the land." The deal involved both public and private parcels..."We are still very committed to locating in New Mexico if a site can be identified," Brumley said....

The collapse of the ghost town deal was a pointed lesson for Governor Martinez. This economy is shakier than cafeteria jello and any jobs announcement has risk as well as rewards. The only consolation in this downer is that Lea County has been absolutely booming because of high oil prices and other development.

ECON EMBARRASSMENT

There's also a bit of an embarrassment for the administration to go along with the ghost town bust. The state's economic development director--Jon Barela--was s prime player in Cerelink, the Corrales-based tech company that was partnering with Hollywood. It has gone bust and left behind a stack of bills, including one for nearly a million dollars for use of the state's super computer.

YET ANOTHER HEADACHE

And there is more headache inducing news for the Guv when it comes to her top aides. Chief of Staff Keith Gardner is being dragged into the courts by trial attorney and possible '14 Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman:

Martinez’s chief of staff must testify at a wrongful termination hearing requested by parole officer Larry Flynn, who was fired last year after police investigated him for shooting a gun outside his home on the state penitentiary grounds south of Santa Fe. Flynn, who at the time of his dismissal was living with then-Corrections Secretary Lupe Martinez, claims his firing was illegal because the Governor’s Office improperly got involved in a personnel action against a classified state employee...The governor’s lawyer had invoked executive privilege in trying to quash subpoenas of chief of staff Keith Gardner and other top administration officials...

With 19 months under their belts and Big Bill receding into the mists of history, the Martinez administration now fully owns what happens around here. That means the good the bad and the ugly...

GHOST TOWN TALK

There is impatience about the often woeful economic news that Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico continue to digest. Reader Keith Miller, who describes himself as an independent, is one of many who have written in since we blogged last week of a visit to the city by financial analyst Joe Duarte. His subsequent report labeled ABQ an economic "ghost town" (Hey, that's supposed to be in Hobbs, isn't it?). Anyway, here's Miller's take on the current biz and jobs scene:

No one wants to admit that there is nothing going in ABQ for fear that they will be targeted by local governments, whether city, county or state as being negative. I had great hopes that Gov. Martinez would bring a new era but this hasn’t happened and it is not because the Dems oppose her. It is because she owes people that created her campaign and they have no interest in this state except to export oil and gas...

Around Texas, where she has much support, these counties seem to be thriving. Hobbs has over 40,000 population and no one can find a place to live! Las Cruces is growing and much is being done for Dona Ana County…while the areas north have been left for naught. She has chased what she knows, “crime” but has not shown an inclination for business...

Again this is not an R or D problem, it is a competency problem, very similar to the national one we face. If we are in such a fever to educate our youth and then have nothing for them to do once educated, why will they stay in New Mexico? I am an independent that typically will vote R for local stuff as I believe they are fiscally conscious. At this point I believe that “unconscious” is the correct adjective.

BANISH THE GHOSTS!

The ABQ as ghost town meme hit a nerve with Bernalillo County officials. They came with this:

Bernalillo County’s economic development team is hard at work, partnering with the private sector on several projects that will create nearly 1,000 new jobs. The county is supporting projects that will create 340 construction jobs and 659 permanent jobs on four projects. Recent success stories include a new warehouse for Admiral Beverage Corp.; a new facility for Friedman Recycling; and the Oxbow Family Apartments, a major residential construction project. The Lowe’s customer support center will create an estimated 600 jobs. County staff worked in partnership with city and state officials to support this project. The county is also sponsoring a job fair on Tuesday...

The Lowe's call center jobs will come on line over the next year and half or so. And it's true that there is some job creating going on, but we are bleeding more jobs than we are adding. That's why the announcement of nearly 500 jobs lost in one week hit home so hard.'

GHOSTS PAST AND FUTURE

Here's another insightful take on what's happening around here from Republican and veteran businessman and investor Paul Donisthorpe, brother of La Politica pollster Bruce Donisthorpe:

I was frankly surprised at New Mexico's standing at tied for 36th in the places for doing business category...moving up from 43rd a year ago. But before we wrench our shoulders trying to pat ourselves on the back, our 46th and 47th ranking in education and business friendliness, respectively, is terrible and by themselves will doom us to mediocrity into the future.

Every single state in our region outranks New Mexico. Texas, Utah, Colorado and Wyoming are in the top 10...All in our region, save us, are in the top 25...As a state we need to find a way to get out of the mindset that "...improving means not falling behind.." as a recent newspaper editorial put it.

While lamenting the loss of incentive monies spent on trendy new businesses now shuttered and the loss of call center jobs due to economic factors totally out of our control, we see the headline where revenues for the state will be up $250 million over previous expectations due to "robust oil prices and production, primarily in southeastern New Mexico." Duh!

Of course, everyone in government will be clamoring for their piece of it ... never mind that oil prices have fallen 20% or so since...fasten your seatbelts.

SENATE ACTION

We're going to have TV debates in the US Senate race that could really make a difference. Heather Wilson's campaign came with the dates for three TV face-offs between her and and Dem rival Martin Heinrich. All three will come in October and well before Election Day Nov. 6.

The KRQE debate will be held Thursday, October 11, 2012 from 6 to 7 p.m. at the KRQE studio. The KOAT-Albuquerque Journal debate will be held Sunday, October 21, 2012 from 6 to 7 p.m. at the KOAT-7 studios and the KOB debate will be held Thursday, October 25, 2012 from 7 to 8 p.m. at a public venue to be determined.

These debates will come in time for the legions of early voters to be influenced. Heinrich's camp says the campaigns are working on a fourth face-off for the Las Cruces area media market that would be held sometime in October on KFOX-TV.

So far there has not been one joint appearance--televised or nontelevised--between Heinrich and Wilson since they were both nominated June 5. The race is being controlled by huge campaign war chests--from both the candidates and out-of-state interest groups--used for a parade of TV ads. Since she is running behind in the polls, three TV chances to do damage to Heinrich is good news for Wilson, but Heinrich needs to get better known personally by the voters. The debates will give him that chance.

The TV stations seem to have risen to the occasion. Two of the debates are on weeknights and in prime time.

According to the latest finance reports, the candidates have about the same amount of cash in their bank accounts and both are being supported with those big out of state dollars. Wilson reports raising $1.6 million in the last quarter (April through June). Heinrich raised $1.4 million. He has $1.8 million in cash. Wilson has $1.6 million. As for out-of-state interest group support, a polling group said Wilson has thus far received more support in third party TV ad spending.

Wilson continues to describe the race as a "dead heat" but Heinrich's polling lead is in the four point range. That's within the margin of error for many polls and a close contest, but not a dead heat. For us, a dead heat is when the candidates are tied or separated by only one polling point.

POSTSCRIPT

We ran into ABQ Dem congressional candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham Saturday night at the New Mexico Jazz Workshop "Women's Voices" concert at the ABQ museum. She had some good news about debates in her contest with Republican Janice Arnold-Jones, telling us that the campaigns are near final agreement on taking part in three TV debates. As in the Senate contest, joint appearances are few--if any--in the congressional contest. The TV debates would fill a large gap in voter knowledge.

Meanwhile, in the money chase in the ABQ congressional derby, Michelle says in the early going she is blowing Janice out of the water. Federal reports were made public over the weekend and her campaign says:

Lujan Grisham raised more than $459,000 during the last three months (April-June). The campaign raised $353,232.04 since the last reporting period in mid-May, nearly a 5-to-1 advantage over her general election opponent. The campaign has $203,606.70 cash on hand, a nearly 3-to-1 advantage over her opponent...

That Janice does not have even $100,000 in cash at this point speaks to the tepid support her candidacy has been greeted with in her own party, a point we blogged about earlier this month. She raised $113,000 for the quarter and reports only $78,000 in cash on hand.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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Monday, April 06, 2009

Dem Battle For Sec. Of State May Be Coming, Plus: More Play For Commission Seat, And: NM R's Ponder Future, Also: Where Will New NM Jobs Come From? 

Valerie vs. Mary?
The 2010 political landscape continues to take shape with another statewide office possibly headed toward a heated Democratic primary contest. We told you about the developing face-off for the Dem nod for Land Commissioner featuring Santa Fe County Commissioner Mike Anaya and former Land Commissioner Ray Powell. Now, Santa Fe County Clerk Valerie Espinoza appears to be inching closer to taking on incumbent Secretary of State Mary Herrera in what would be another closely watched showdown. Espinoza toyed with a run in 2006 when Herrera, then Bernalillo County Clerk, ascended to the SOS office. But this time around she appears more determined, telling us in a recent email:

I am heavily considering and confident that I’d have a shot...I have gained much support from those who deal with the office on a professional level. I’m so tempted based on the need to make that office function. I will decide before June.

Espinoza, serving her second four year term as Santa Fe clerk, had a grandfather who was a State Senator. She grew up in the heart of the north--in Española--where her family had a gas station across the street from the restaurant owned by the famous politico Emilio Naranjo. Espinoza worked at Los Alamos Labs for 20 years and for five years in the Secretary of State's Office under Shirley Hooper.

An Herrera-Espinoza primary could be competitive, despite Mary's incumbency. Valerie could poll well with Northern Dems and Mary is well-known in Bernalillo County. The south could be up for grabs. Of course, another contender could get in and change that calculus, or Espinoza, who has proven to be an adept fund-raiser, could forgo a run.

Herrera has had a relatively placid term, but Espinoza's supporters claim she has done nothing memorable. The press has been impatient with the SOS for not getting the office's Web site up to snuff when it comes to candidate financial reports. But Herrera was recently named president of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, is well-liked in the party and has a strong ethical reputation.

DI ALONE?

It's interesting to see possible primary battles develop for SOS and Land Commissioner while we still await word on who--if anyone of stature--will definitely challenge Lt. Governor Diane Denish for the Dem Guv nomination. Insiders still say State Senate Leader Michael Sanchez is unlikely to go and Attorney General Gary King does not seem excited by the prospect. That could leave only actor Val Kilmer standing between Denish and the Democratic nomination. The way this state has been trending, it is going to a nomination worth its weight in gold.

MALRY MOVING?
Malry
Fresh stuff for you on that behind-the-scenes play for the Bernalillo County Commission seat held by Deanna Archuleta and who insiders say is headed for a job in the Obama Interior Department, perhaps as soon as this month. Lawyer and ABQ School Board member Marty Esquivel has been on the short list to win appointment to the seat by Big Bill if and when Deanna vacates, but Marty checks in with the news that he not playing:

Thanks for the mention in your fine blog...Wanted to let you know I took myself out of the running for the county commission spot. It was a great opportunity, but just is not the right fit for me, my family or my law practice at this time. I’ll continue on the school board as president and as coach of my son’s little league team. I’m not sure which one will kill me first.

Thanks for that compliment, Marty. Of course, it has nothing to do with us pushing you to run for Congress a couple of years ago. And before the R's grumble, we feel the same about R Jon Barela when it comes to giving the system fresh blood--or an enema--whichever medical procedure you find most appropriate. Anyway, back to the action already....

Downtown insiders now say they see former commissioner Lenton Malry as a leading prospect to win the appointment. Lenton was the first African-American to serve in the NM Legislature and was previously elected to the Archuleta seat in the ABQ SE Heights area. He has been working for the county as a neighborhood coordinator and recently went part-time. (He has also been an Election Night fixture on KANW-89.1 FM with yours truly since 1988.) One question: If Malry, 68, does secure the Guv's appointment, will he be a placeholder or run for a four year term in 2010?

Former county commissioner, lawyer and lobbyist Tom Rutherford has also been mentioned as a possible and Danny Hernandez, a member of the AMAFCA flood control board, called in to let us know he's interested. As for Deanna, she's not saying what the future holds, but she was spotted at Walgreen's---picking up a prescription for Potomac Fever.

A WEE BIT OF DRAMA

A bit of drama livened up an otherwise routine meeting Saturday of the Bernalillo County GOP. A defense contractor physicist, Charlie Tipton, was elected as the new county chairman after defeating two other contenders. Michael Meyer, an investment advisor, was expected to run and win, but dropped out. One of those defeated was Tito Madrid, a former field operative for ex-ABQ US Rep. Heather Wilson. A Wilson supporter says it was not a rejection of Heather because she was not urging delegates to support Madrid.

Also on hand for the session was ex-US Rep. Steve Pearce, and one of our Alligators reported:

I saw the two of them (Steve and Heather) talking cordially which tells me that they will not be running against each other.

Well, at this stage of their careers these two old pros could manage to act cordial while locked in a room with deadly tarantulas, but it does seem unlikely that we will have a rematch of the '08 US Senate primary in which the duo faced off and Steve won. Wilson is still on the fence on whether to make the move for the GOP Guv nod. Pearce continues to eye a possible run for his former southern congressional seat, or perhaps a run at Governor--if Heather stays on the sidelines.

LEADING THE GOP

Informed observers say NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates seems to want to keep the party on the right, believing that the GOP was not conservative enough in '08, causing its historic NM defeat. Others strongly disagree, saying the party needs to push to the middle as it did in the past when the term "moderate Republican" was not an anachronism. They argue that bedrock conservatism has seen its peak for now, and was never that defining in moderate New Mexico. Still, few were willing to step forward and lead the troubled party. Yates was and it is his ball to run with.

If Yates goes too far right some GOP analysts believe there could be yet another day of reckoning in 2010. If so, the optimists among them see the small party finally building a coalition from the center that could bring back some semblance of power.

All of this is music to the ears of the Dems who now have more control than perhaps anytime in the post WWII era. The state's entire congressional delegation, the governorship, the two chambers of the Legislature, all statewide executive offices, excepting one, and the vast majority of the 33 counties are all under the Democratic banner.

Republicans may be shut out, but not conservatives and the few moderate R's that populate the area. Like the old days when the Dems dominated and the R's were on the mat, there is a conservative-moderate Dem faction to check the liberals from going too far. That was amply demonstrated in January with the election of Roswell Sen. Tim Jennings as President Pro Tem.

WHITE'S WORLD


Will Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White seek the GOP nod for Lt. Governor in 2010 or some other office? It seems he wants to try to extend his political career, despite the waxing he received in last year's ABQ congressional race. White has formed a political action committee to repeal the repeal of the death penalty recently signed into law by Big Bill. The PAC has started a Web site and cut a TV commercial. It will be interesting to see how much the PAC has raised and from whom. It will also be interesting to see if White's drive to get tens of thousands of signatures to place the repeal on the NM election ballot is more than grandstanding.

The sheriff has been consistent in his support of the death penalty, arguing that not having it endangers lawmen. It's a powerful argument, but noted defense attorney Ray Twohig blogged in here recently that his reading of the NM Constitution tells him placing a public safety measure like a repeal of the death penalty on the ballot is not an option. Do other lawyers disagree? Let us know.

THE HUMAN TOLL

There is no other number with more impact on the well-being of the USA than the unemployment number. A man or a woman without a job--without a purpose--can turn into an unguided missile. First, in Binghamton. Now in Pittsburgh.

What may be most worrisome about the thousands of jobs being lost in our state--besides the severe human toll--is how we are going to put those people back to work.

We can see the miners reclaiming their jobs when the commodities cycle turns back up, but Eclipse Aviation will not be back in business. Thornburg Mortgage in Santa Fe--where 130 were laid off Friday--is gone for good. We won't be needing new mortgage companies anytime soon. Intel has shrunk its work force by 40 percent at its Rio Rancho facility and we don't see them adding workers. Efficiency will see to that. Zangara Dodge shut down. Will another car outfit open to replace it? Don't count on it.

It will be New Mexico's small businesses that will have to recharge the state's private sector. The hope for "green" jobs that is being espoused by President Obama and NM's Congressmen is understandable. But is there a plan, not just scatter shot one-time stimulus money being pumped into various government entities? How many of these jobs can we expect to create? Over what period of time? Will they form a permanent backbone for our economy, or just give a temporary lift? And what exactly is a green job? Have fun when you Google that.

For now, the relative stability of the state's government sector is holding up the economy, but there is very real pain here--as there is in Binghamton and Pittsburgh. Too many politicians and policy makers here seem to be dismissing the need for a new economic development paradigm by dismissing the recession as "being worse elsewhere." That's a campaign slogan, not a plan.

Where do ABQ's mayoral candidates see us headed? What about Big Bill and his policy makers? And when will we see Lt. Governor Denish, the leading candidate to replace Richardson, start to address this issue? There are plenty of people waiting to hear---too many of them without anything else to do.

DENZEL DAZZLES--PART II

We just plain forgot. That's our explanation for not pointing out Friday that it is Roswell GOP State Rep. Dennis Kintigh who has been giving Big Bill such a hard time over the generous tax credits extended to the film industry. We blogged how actor Denzel Washington made a $50,000 donation to the Roswell Boys and Girls Club and garnered deserved PR for doing so. But as with just about everything in our Land of Enchantment, there is the political angle. In this case it is that Kintigh proposal (beaten back in the Legislature) to repeal those tax incentives. From a KRQE-TV news report:

Then-Gov. Gary Johnson, a Republican, signed the credits into law in 2002 after they were approved by the Legislature. Over the years, they've grown from 15 percent of certain expenses to 25 percent and will total an estimated $55 million this year and $60 million in 2010. Kintigh argued that asking New Mexicans to tighten their belts and then turning around to give the film industry millions in tax credits isn't fair.

While it's not exactly Denzel vs. Dennis in Roswell, there are overtones. Not that Dennis is intimidated by big money. Roswell oilman Mark Murphy and his family spent an incredible $340,000 on Kintigh's campaign to oust Rep.Dan Foley in a 2008 GOP primary fight that now belongs to the ages. Come to think of it, that might be a plot line for a movie--starring Denzel Washington?

THE BOTTOM LINES


After having some fun toying with the press, Big Bill quietly announced Sunday he has signed the bill that opens to the public conference committees of the Legislature. Those are the meetings between Senate and House members where differences over legislation are hammered out. The press has lobbied for years that they be opened up and the bill this year finally made it to the Guv's desk. He tortured the scribes by saying he might not sign their coveted measure, but he did. Will the meetings really open the public to more of what the Legislature does, or will the deal-making simply move to the restrooms? We'll see...

Greg Lennes has those bottom lines from Las Cruces as he comes with this riff on actor and potential 2010 Dem Guv candidate Val Kilmer:

It is no "Top Secret" that Val Kilmer is interested in being "Top Gun" in New Mexico. Although he is not a "Real Genius", is "Missing" political experience, and is not a "Saint," he will bring some "Heat" into the gubernatorial race. Of course, his "Tombstone" will read "Batman Forever."

Thanks for the chuckle, Greg. Hope it's contagious...

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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