Sam Bregman

He promised a lot. Now we'll see if Sam Bregman can deliver. The aggressive ABQ trial attorney won election as the new state Democratic Party chairman Saturday in a landslide vote at the party's central committee meeting in Las Cruces. He took the prize 66% to 34% (245-129) over Carlsbad attorney Roxanne Lara.

Bregman promises Republican Governor Martinez that "a storm is coming" and that the Democratic donkey--either asleep or munching on hay during her first two years--will now come back alive and kicking.

No doubt the flamboyant Bregman will be much more up front in leveling criticism against the popular Guv as he prepares to ease the way for the party's eventual 2014 Guv nominee who, as things look today, appears to have an unenviable task.

But politics can change in a flash. Bregman's immediate task is to get the public used to the changed tone and more open criticism of Martinez who is clinging to opinion polls that show her approval well over 60%.

He has plenty of material work with--the state continues to be mired in the worst economic environment of the post-WWII era and there is nothing much being said or done about it.

Bregman's first test will be the October ABQ mayor and city council elections. It is unprecedented for the R's to hold the mayor's office and control the council at the same time as they now do.

Bregman and the Dems don't have to deliver an outright win with Dem Pete Dinelli, but they will have to get him close if they hope to soften the terra firma for next year's run at Martinez.

Look for Bregman and the Dems (and the labor unions) to form super PACs to get the ball rolling against GOP Mayor Berry.

Dem analysts say Bregman also needs to hire a strong executive director for the Dems who have been roundly criticized for pulling in their horns and laying down against the Governor. Ditto for the Democratic leadership in Santa Fe. Said one:

The new director has to be someone who is willing to take on (Guv political adviser) Jay McCleskey & Co. 24/7--not just in terms of responding and playing defense, but going on offense and taking the attack directly to them. And the new Democratic team is going to have to be willing to whip up some courage and party discipline among the elected Democratic officials who have shied away from confrontation.

SAM VS. JAY

McCleskey and Martinez

Bregman will not only target Martinez but also give McCleskey--who has the run of the Fourth Floor--his first real run for the money since Susana took the helm in 2011. On Saturday Bregman repeated Jay's nickname in the political community--"The Shadow Governor," signaling that he sees mileage in making him one of his foils.

Also, Bregman is invulnerable to the intimidation on a personal level that has been a hallmark of the Guv's attack machine. He is wealthy from his legal practice and is a trained professional who relishes the game.

As he has long done with political foes, a number of news reporters, this political blogger and others, McCleskey immediately attempted to personally discredit Bregman as a credible foe in the hope that the public will not listen to his arguments:

Sam Bregman is a criminal defense attorney who had made a name for himself by defending politicians accused of corruption, and New Mexicans will reject his smears against the governor in the same way they rejected his bombastic defenses of corrupt politicos.

But not all of Bregman's clients were "rejected." Many of them had the charges dropped. But what does any of this have to do with the policies of the Santa Fe administration?

McCleskey handled the campaign of Bernalillo County Sheriff Dan Houston who has called several of his female staffers "fat whores." Should we dismiss McCleskey's defense of Martinez administration policies because of his association with Houston?

A Republican analyst suggested that Bregman could model himself after former GOP Chairman John Dendhal, one of the more deadly political pit bulls the state has ever seen and who held forth in the 90's.

Dendahl is probably the model for Bregman. He will need a right-hand man. Dendhal had Kevin Moomaw as his director--aggressive and knowledgeable. Bregman will need to follow suit.

That reminds us. It was Dendahl and Moomaw who cut Bregman's political career short back in 1999 when they engineered his defeat for re-election to the the ABQ city council.

As for Lara, a Carlsbad attorney and former Eddy County commissioner, she lost big to Bregman but she waged a credible campaign. At 38, she has a long political road ahead of her--if she chooses to travel  it.

It simply was not her time.

The great majority of the 369 activist Dems who decided the chair battle Saturday had had enough. They represent the majority party in the state that has been looking and acting more like a minority. They have been losing ground to Martinez in Santa Fe, in the press and in the polls.

The bottom line is that Bregman will be Pit Bull to the Martinez and McCleskey Doberman. We don't know yet where it will lead, but it certainly won't be boring.

THIN SKIN

Rob Perry

The city is getting pretty thin skinned now that the reality of what they face with the troubled APD is setting in. Take a look:

ABQ City Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry refused to say how much the city was paying them (attorneys) and instead suggested a public records request be filed for the information.

The question was posed to Perry as litigation continued over the $10.3 million the city must pay the family of  an Iraqi war veteran who was shot and killed by APD.

Perry, an attorney, knows very well how much those five lawyers for the city are being paid. Why make his bosses--the taxpayers--jump through hoops to find out how their money is being spent?

Numerous police lawsuit cases as a result of the many fatal police shootings  are going to go on for years and years. They will cost the city untold millions and millions. It does no good to try to deny it, spin it or go into the bunker. That has been the past practice and that's a reason why the Untied States Department of Justice has had to come to ABQ to investigate the police department and its management.

KING SUSANA?

And the same attitude (arrogance?) is creeping into state government. Governor Martinez's office issued a somewhat bizarre statement when asked about her education secretary dropping the word "desigante' fro her title. Because she has not been confirmed by the sate Senate, Hanna Skandera remains "Secretary of Education designate," but the department has chosen to ignore it and with the full support of Martinez. Here's the statement:

“Secretary Skandera has been in the job for more than 2 years and the Rules Committee has had ample opportunity to give her a vote on the Senate floor. The governor supports Secretary Skandera and the work she’s doing as her cabinet secretary for public education...The Governor and Secretary Skandera are focused on giving New Mexico students every opportunity they deserve to succeed. Legislators and the media can keep calling her Secretary designate if they wish, but Governor Martinez considers Hanna her Secretary of Public Education.”

"Legislators and the media can keep calling her...designate?" Hey, Fourth Floor, she's called that because it's the law--one of the many the Governor of the state takes an oath to uphold. You don't get to pick and choose which ones and you don't get to decide what an independent branch of government should do. That is, unless there's a new law we haven't heard of that says when your approval rating is over 60% you get to do whatever the heck you want...

FOR THE RECORD (CONT/)

Sometimes you just get off on the wrong track on a story and stay there. Readers enjoyed our analysis and commentary on the wayward comments of the Bernalillo County GOP executive director about two young women who testified before the Bernalillo County commission in favor of an increase in the minimum wage, but we had trouble with the details, Nothing earth shaking, but still. First, we made it sound as if only one woman was the target of his derogatory remarks ("radical bitch" etc.). Then we screwed up the correction, saying the women were against the minimum hike. Finally, we called BernCo GOP Chairman "Roger." His first name is Frank. Maybe it was spring fever?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013 
Not for reproduction without permission of the author 

DA Bregman

Our exclusive report posted Wednesday at 12:30 a.m. revealing that Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman would seek election next year, contrary to his earlier statements, appeared to quickly smoke out the DA. After not responding to our inquiry for comment, he called a news conference and confirmed that he was indeed running for election to a four year term as DA in 2024. (Full statement here.)

Damon Martinez

Will BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman's black hat earn him a black eye from Democratic primary votes and vault Damon Martinez into the winner's circle? 

Martinez seems to think so. 

His debut TV ad portrays Bregman as a frivolous "amateur" who has been "playing cowboy" while ABQ streets have become the "Wild West."

The thirty second spot gets a lot done. It effectively ridicules Bregman's signature cowboy hat meant to convey a tough on crime image. 

It makes the case for Martinez by reminding Dem voters of his service as a US attorney ('14-'17), appointed by President Obama.

The ad takes note of his military service--and in a contention that will surely be disputed by Bregman--claims Martinez took on violent criminals and the drug cartels.

Bregman, appointed DA by MLG in January '23 to fill the vacancy created when Raul Torrez was elected attorney general, immediately donned his black hat causing analysts to wonder if he was going too far for a Dem primary by appealing to Republicans and hard-line conservatives as he turned off center and left Dems.

That is now easy pickings for Martinez who is trying to appeal to Dems across the board. His spot leads off with footage from Bregman's first ad that shows him strolling down an alley in his black hat. The script:

While Sam Bregman has been playing cowboy our streets have become the Wild West. He's left murderers off the hook and given sweetheart deals to big time drug dealers. Amateur hour is over. Damon Martinez is a former US Attorney appointed by President Obama. He took on violent criminals and cartels. As DA he'll do it again. He'll put criminals in jail and make sure our streets are safe for the ones we care about the most.... 

That last line of the narration--"the ones we care about the most"--shows a young boy wearing a cowboy hat and a lasso around his shoulder walking with his back to camera, making for a final dig at what Martinez believes is Bregman's inauthenticity accented by his showy head gear.

DA Bregman

Martinez backs up his accusations on Bregman's prosecutorial record by citing the dates that media outlets published articles about them. But there is more heat than light when any public official around here claims to have made a dent in the historic crime rate.

The line "amateur hour is over" is punctuated with vintage black and white film of a cowboy actor swirling a lasso for a throw while a country western band fiddles away, another effort to make Bregman appear whimsical.

The Obama mention is complemented by a photo of Martinez talking with President Obama, a clear signal to a large segment of the Democratic primary electorate that may be confused about this race. The Obama reference could point them in the direction Martinez desires.

On the other end of the spectrum there is a shot of Martinez in his uniform serving in the US Army Reserves as a Colonel and a JAG officer in the NM National Guard.

SEEMS CLOSE

The Martinez-Bregman contest in big BernCo is the state's most expensive this primary because there are no statewide contests on the ballot. Bregman has raised over $400,000 and Martinez over $300,000 with over half of his from personal loans.

Neither candidate has a sterling election record. Martinez has never been elected and in his only previous effort he lost the 2018 ABQ Dem US House primary to Deb Haaland. Bregman has run numerous times for various public offices the past 30 years but has only won once--for a single term on the ABQ City Council. 

The race seems close with Bregman's superior name ID putting him in the driver's seat in the early going but now Martinez joining the fray with this effective TV ad and starting to chip away at Bregman, a former criminal defense attorney and onetime chair of the NM Dem Party.  

Neither seems a comfortable fit with the voting public because neither has been convincing that they have credible crime-fighting credentials. That makes their paid media all the more vital.

One of them will win the primary and the four year term up for grabs. No Republican is running.

SIGN TIME

What would a campaign be if candidates were not complaining about their signs being stolen or vandalized? They are off and running with that theme. This is from Dem Bernalillo County Clerk candidate Karen Montoya: 

We've noticed a few of our campaign signs have gone missing or been tampered with recently. As we work hard to represent you in Bernalillo County, we're asking for your help in keeping an eye out for any suspicious activity around our signs. If you notice anything out of the ordinary, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. Your assistance in safeguarding our campaign materials is greatly appreciated. 

Montoya is competing with Deputy County Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh for the Dem Clerk nomination. County Clerk Linda Stover is term limited. Robert Kwasny and Clayton Pryor are the GOP candidates but the Dem primary winner is heavily favored in November. A Republican hasn't been elected to the post since. . .well. . .we'd have to look that one up.

By the way, Clerk Linda was toying with a run for ABQ Mayor in 2025 but has now told friends she will not be a candidate.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.  

David Iglesias

The hot and heavy race for the Democratic nomination for Bernalillo County District Attorney is down to two hopefuls after progressive attorney Mathias Swonger has dropped out after his campaign was unable to gather the required number of nominating signatures.

That word comes from an operative associated with former US Attorney Damon Martinez who is now the lone challenger to DA Sam Bregman who was appointed to fill a vacancy by MLG and is now seeking election.

The position is especially high profile this cycle because of the APD scandal that saw Bregman dismissing 200 DWI cases allegedly involving officers involved in a scheme with at least one defense attorney that had them failing to appear in court so their DWI arrest cases would be dismissed in exchange for bribes paid to them and the defense lawyers. 

Bregman said judicial ethics gave him no choice but to dismiss the 200 open cases that involved the APD officers.

The dismissals are drawing fire in a state with some of the highest rates of alcohol deaths and DWI arrests in the nation. Former GOP US attorney David Iglesias is one of the more prominent legal experts now blasting the Bregman decision:

Bregman’s handling of the DWI corruption cases is unacceptable. The District Attorney controls the prosecution of a case, including letting APD leadership know when officers fail to appear in court which results in the charges being dismissed. This procedure had been common practice. D.A. Bregman’s change in practice is an egregious failure. His attempt to shift blame by characterizing these notifications as a “courtesy” is shamefully wrong.  The DA’s mission, according to their website, is: “To be relentless in holding people accountable …  [by] unwavering commitment… [to] the community.” But when cops failed to appear, Bregman didn’t even bother to notify APD. This action is a dereliction of his duty to the community. 

When Bregman was a criminal defense attorney, he had DWI cases dismissed involving one of the main APD officers currently under federal investigation. Therefore, Bregman had the ethical responsibility to recuse himself from anything to do with the 195 dismissed DWI cases. Neither he nor his office can impartially prosecute this apparent public corruption. He should have turned the matter over to the New Mexico Attorney General, where I served as a prosecutor many years ago. 

On January 2nd, the US Attorney notified Bregman of a confidential investigation and his response was to issue a press release and speak to the press about dismissing the DWI cases by blaming the FBI investigation. This action allowed the news media to connect the dots with the FBI’s lawful searches of a defense attorney’s office and three police officers’ homes. Bregman’s conduct was inexcusable and politically motivated. Albuquerque needs an ethical District Attorney. Without that non-negotiable requirement, the fox has the keys to the henhouse. 

Of course, we welcome any reaction from DA Bregman. 

Iglesias served as the United States Attorney for New Mexico between 2001-2007 and retired from the U.S. Navy JAG Corps in 2014. He has not endorsed former US Attorney Martinez.

The departure of Swonger from the DA's race will have marginal impact as he was not expected to raise much campaign funding. However, a two way race could benefit Martinz since Swonger was positioned to win some of the anti-Bregman vote.

No Republican has yet announced for the position. Filing day is March 12. No R has been elected to the post since the 90's. 

NOT JUST PROGRESSIVES

On the Monday blog we pinned the legislative failure for an increase in the alcohol tax as a means of reducing the state's nation-leading rate of alcohol deaths on the progressives. But reader Bruce Shah has an addendum:

Perhaps it is simply a coalition of $$$ that blocks everything. Did you not say earlier that there are more registered lobbyists than legislators? 

GUN BILLS

(Journal)

She didn't get the tougher gun laws she wanted but the Legislature did approve four gun safety measures and that was enough for the Governor to set up a major photo op with the kids at ABQ's West Mesa high as she signed them into law. 

Meanwhile, the chances of her calling a special session to deal with more public safety legislation is seen as slim.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.  

Bregman and Keller

Will Democratic BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman be the defacto Republican and conservative candidate for ABQ Mayor next year? There are plenty of signs pointing toward that outcome and they have Team Keller on high alert.

Bregman, appointed District Attorney by MLG in January 2023 to replace DA Torrez who had been elected attorney general, easily defeated Damon Martinez at the June '24 Dem primary for DA. With no Republican running in November, he will be elected to his own four year term.

But the odds are he will interrupt it.

Bregman, unabashedly ambitious and with a hunger for the top city job (he's run before), is beginning to look like the only plausible alternative to his fellow Democrat and Mayor Tim Keller, a sometimes progressive who will be seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term in November 2025.

For a Democrat the tough-talking Bregman is receiving noticeable support from the conservative establishment, including the newspaper, the ABQ Chamber of Commerce and NAIOP, the commercial real estate group. They desperately want a candidate and Bregman seems the natural pick--a crime conservative Democrat in a city where electing a Republican has become next to impossible.

Bregman raised nearly $500,000 for his successful DA ran, an impressive sum and the most of any candidate in the state in the 2024 primary. He has the organizational flair to qualify for nearly $700,000 in public financing available to mayoral candidates or he could reject public financing and raise more than that from private donations.

If Bregman did go for public money it would likely be joined with an outside PAC that could raise another $500,000 or more, giving the DA the financial strength to compete.

Keller is expected to again qualify for public financing and have an outside PAC formed for him.

Who else could play in this rarefied mayoral atmosphere? Who else wants to? There are no eager beavers in the early going.

A Keller-Bregman face-off dotted perhaps with a few second-tier hopefuls would make for a classic conservative vs. progressive campaign over crime.

Bregman would bring with him loads of political baggage from his stints as state Dem party chair and as a criminal defense attorney but his more recent performance as DA has been ratified by the public and given him the hope that his past will not drag him down.

Keller is an experienced and effective campaigner. If Bregman takes a pass on the mayoral race, it could mean Keller's persistence in the face of adversity could pay off with that unprecedented third term in a row. If Bregman runs, the race is tossed high into the air.  

BLAME GAME

Rep. Chandler

If Bregman does take the mayoral plunge he'll have to stop blaming the legislature for the ongoing crime wave in ABQ and put blame on the mayor and police chief. Of course, his performance as DA would also come under intense scrutiny. 

As we've been reporting top lawmakers are now turning against the city for constantly blaming them for the stubborn crime. The latest:

At an interim meeting of the Courts, Corrections and Justice Committee, the chairwoman, Rep. Christine Chandler, D-Los Alamos, said the Legislature has allocated "hundreds of millions of dollars" to agencies that leave money on the table. 

"There's been laser focus by this Legislature to ensure that those with the responsibility of enforcing the laws have the resources that they need. They're not being utilized. It's just not happening, and we need to start calling it for what it is." Chandler also said the state has "hundreds and hundreds of criminal laws" that need to be enforced. 

"We have a city (ABQ) here that suffers from a serious crime problem. It's the mayor and it's the police department that's primarily responsible for ensuring [laws are enforced], not the Legislature. We have been providing the resources that they ask for and that they need, so let's just call it as it is."

If Chandler came down here and ran for mayor, she just might win--and without a runoff.

DON'T GET BLUE 

At the risk of getting blue in the face, we again urge state policy makers to seriously consider providing high speed internet to rural New Mexico via Starlink and its satellites that are so successful across the globe--and more cost effective than rolling out fiber to remote households. But the window is closing. The latest:

The camp of Deb Haaland is sharpening their knives as Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman prepares his entry into the Dem gubernatorial race. A campaign spokesman issues this warning to their rival:

Sam has never been vetted. He's about to be. His work as a defense lawyer is damaging, especially now that he is adopting a lock them up mentality when it comes to crime. 

For good measure the spokesman dropped a cliche that will be heard often as Bregman crisscrosses the state sporting his now trademark black hat:

"He's all hat and no cattle," offered the Haaland spokesman.

Haaland, the former Secretary of Interior under President Biden, also shares a title with Bregman--former chair of the state Democratic party. 

The initial scoffing over Bregman's chances has waned. One of our Senior Alligators explains:

Bregman will have a clear and defining message--tough on crime--while Haaland has had a soft opening with no clear message. She says 'she is listening' to voter concerns. That contrast will give Bregman a boost with moderate Democrats who will form his base of his support while Deb dominates the progressive wing. She will be the favorite but Bregman's chances have improved.

In addition, there's the money. Haaland, a national political figure has, already raised over $2 million but Bregman collected $500,000 for his successful bid for DA last year. In addition, he made good money as a prominent defense attorney.

Add to that his multimillionaire baseball star son, Alex Bregman, who signed a three year contract with the Boston Red Sox for $120 million, and $2 million seems a much easier hill to climb. Of course, he will still have to show it in this race.

THE POLLING 

A poll conducted last December 4-5 by Dem leaning firm PPP and that is floating in political circles showed Haaland with 50 percent support among the 557 likely primary voters surveyed. Bregman received 18 percent, State Treasurer Laura Montoya 6 percent and undecided was at 27 percent. 

With over a year to go, the polling is of interest but far from definitive and obviously not inhibiting Bregman from entering the contest as Haaland supporters had hoped.

THE BACK AND FORTH

Deb Haaland

While Haaland's camp knocks Bregman, he will tread carefully in criticizing her but his supporters aren't holding back. One came with this:

There's a lack of energy in Haaland's candidacy. She's uncertain about her positioning, like a boxer swinging at air. Many Democrats appear to have passed peak progressiveness and are looking for something different--something that delivers.

The Haaland campaign counters that their candidate has been drawing large crowds, that her politics are well-known and popular among primary voters and take note of Bregman's long record of losing elections.

Bregman is expected to announce in Las Vegas April 10, according to his mailer. That decision is a blatant appeal to northern Hispanic Democrats (especially men) as well as rural Dems statewide. Many of them are culturally and politically moderate. That's why his black hat is staying put--at least for now. 

The cities--ABQ, Las Cruces and Santa Fe--are Haaland's stomping grounds. 

The disconnect of the early campaign is how crime dominates the news in those cities while Dem voters there appear to resist the "get tough" message. Meanwhile in the rural stretches, impacted less by crime, voters are much more receptive.

The primary isn't until June 2026 but the approaching summer of '25 will not be spared the political heat.

FIGHTING IRISHMAN DIES

Bill O'Neill

The career of veteran state lawmaker Bill O'Neill may be most remembered for how he showed a spine of steel and repeatedly defied the demand from GOP Gov. Susana Martinez that the legislature approve a bill stripping undocumented immigrants of their driver's licenses. 

This passage from our January 26, 2012 blog explains why we dubbed him "The Fighting Irishman.":

He is in a district he hangs on to by a thread, and when ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill defied the Republican Governor by voting against her bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, he felt her wrath and that of her operatives. They flooded his district with robocalls in hopes of softening him up for November. Now O'Neill, aka, "The Fighting Irishman," is looking for some armor for the next round of hits he will take on the emotional issue. His office reports: 

Representative Bill O’Neill, House District 15, introduced a bill today that represents the simplest and most effective solution to the volatile driver’s license issue. His bill calls for issuing a provisional driver’s license to foreign nationals who do not have a social security number.

O'Neill, went on to win that battle with a compromise finally crafted near the end of the Martinez years.

O'Neill, who grew up in Ohio, attended Cornell in New York and served as Executive Director of the NM Juvenile Parole Board, died of cancer Monday at a Santa Fe hospital.

He left his ABQ North Valley House seat to run for the state Senate in 2012 and escaped the wrath of the GOP machine. He won and served there through 2024 when he was defeated in the Democratic primary after Senate District 13 was drastically change under redistricting.  

Besides being a politician O'Neill was a noted novelist and playwright, authoring the well-received play Save the Bees that explored bipartisanship in an era of division.

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas of ABQ said O'Neill was one of the most "authentic" people he has ever served with. O'Neill was popular among his colleagues, chairing a nonpartisan karoke caucus that included lawmakers from both sides of the aisle who met up to relax and blew off steam. 

Senate Democrats said:

He championed many legislative reforms regarding juvenile justice, including prohibiting life sentences for juveniles, and probation and parole measures.  He helped establish Dismas House, a transitional living program in Albuquerque for men on probation or parole. His legacy will be remembered through the countless lives he touched and the policies he advocated through his dedicated service. . .

Bill O'Neill was 68. 

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Damon Martinez

Sam Bregman has a recurring nightmare--an Hispanic Democrat with name ID, a long background in law enforcement and the ability to raise money decides to oppose him for the Democratic nomination for District Attorney in next June's primary. Only it isn't a nightmare anymore. 

It became reality today when former US Attorney Damon Martinez announced he will oppose Bregman who MLG appointed to the job in January when DA Raul Torrez became attorney general.

Martinez, 57, who in 2018 was named as APD's Chief Policy Adviser and left the $125,000 a year position in August, ripped into Bregman, coming with this:

I am answering the call to service because our current District Attorney is not providing the leadership and expertise that we so desperately need. Murders are being plead down and fentanyl dealers are serving one or two days in jail and then being released to continue terrorizing our streets. It has to stop and I have the experience and expertise that this moment demands. 

We'll carry Bregman's response when it comes in. 

As a former US Attorney Martinez far outranks Bregman in prosecutorial experience who has only a previous stint as an assistant district attorney in the DA's office. Rather, he has heady success as one of the state's more prominent criminal defense lawyers. 

Martinez will have some baggage in the primary. His service with APD makes him vulnerable to charges that he has done little to resolve the crime crisis even as he served at the top of the department. 

In addition, he suffered a media takedown as US attorney when he was questioned about a controversial ATF sting in the ABQ SE Heights that he was deeply involved in. The four month operation resulted in allegations of racial profiling and a not so hot prosecution scorecard of this arrested.

Earlier in 2018 when he ran for the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat against Deb Haaland, the progressive wing rejected the US Attorney and he came in second to Haaland who went on to win the primary and general election.

DA Bregman

This time around  chances may be better because there is no name progressive in the race--at least not yet. Longtime Public Defender Matthias Swonger has announced a run but he faces financial challenges and is unknown. 

Also, our analysts said at the time Bregman announced his campaign in early July he may have swerved too far to the right in a Democratic and often progressive county and continues to do so as he courts favor with business and the media. 

Not that Martinez's rhetoric on crime won't be tough but it will be coming from a more demure personality, one with deep connections to the Hispanic community that is often on the frontlines of the crime crisis. 

MARTINEZ STRATEGY

The ABQ native, a UNM School of Law grad who worked as a legislative aide to US Senators Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall, can be expected to follow the old Marty Chavez playbook and work the Hispanic Valley hard while showing his tough on crime stripes to the conservative far NE Heights and other voters who are fed up with the ongoing crime scene.

Martinez can also probably count on the help of Mayor Tim Keller's organization. Why? Bregman insiders are now talking about the DA getting elected to a four year term in 2024 and then turning around and campaigning for Mayor of ABQ in 2025 when Keller may very well be seeking a third term. Bregman previously ran unsuccessfully for mayor. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

Walt Benson

Since he is is outnumbered 4 to 1, you might say Republican BernCo Commissioner Walt Benson has no choice but to work across party lines. He points out that he often does although some of his GOP brethren may want him to be more of a firebrand. 

Benson, a financial advisor who represents reliably Republican NE Heights District 4, says he will seek re-election next year to another four year term. 

Benson calls himself a "commonsense Republican" who is helping make possible the first Sheriff's substation in the northern part of the county and who works to make it easier to conduct business here. 

As for the Dems who outnumber him, maybe he can give them some coupons to Baskin Robbins to soften them up. He owns two of their stores. 

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Securing the Democratic nomination for governor won't come at a bargain basement price. Inflation isn't exempting the cost of campaigning and the $4 million that MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti each spent in 2022 to win their nominations is expected to be equaled and likely surpassed.

Already Deb Haaland says she has raised nearly as much as Lujan Grisham spent in her three way primary, reporting a total of $3.7 million raised. Haaland spent $1.7 million as of April 7.

What does that mean for BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, Haaland's chief rival? We put that question to a veteran Dem consultant not affiliated with any Guv campaign: 

Bregman will definitely have to raise and spend $3 to 5 million if he wants to compete against Haaland. She may or may not spend more but for Bregman $3 million is the low, low end to stay in the fight. 

What about the immense wealth that Bregman's son has accumulated with his stellar baseball career? Could that come into play? The consultant replied:

His son would not give him vast sums as an individual. The maximum amount an individual can contribute is $12,000 per election cycle (primary or general election), meaning a total of $24,000 if contributing to both. But Bregman's son (Alex) could donate as much as he wanted to a political action committee that would support his father's campaign. That is an ace in the hole that Bregman may have that could make a real difference if in the months ahead he gets the race in play.

Despite the continued decline in audience for over the air TV stations like KOB, KOAT and KRQE, political ads at those stations are more than keeping up with inflation. Back to the consultant:

It wasn't long ago that an effective ad buy--at least 1,000 ratings points per week was going for $100,000. That price is more than double now, so it will cost the candidates at least $1.6 million to stay on TV in ABQ for the two months head of next June's primary. And that does not include El Paso to reach Las Cruces voters. 

Broadcast TV and cable is still important in campaign advertising because voters aged 50 and over still depend on them as their main source of information and they are the age group most likely to vote. 

Bregman has just begun his fund-raising and reported $76,000 in cash in April. 

The consultant says we won't need early polling to determine the leader in the race, saying if Bregman has not raised around $2 million by late fall, it could be a sign of trouble. Ditto for Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima who faces the steepest fundraising hill to climb. 

WHAT THEY ARE

Here's some insider info on the TV game that is so critical to the candidates as explained by campaign operatives:

 In TV advertising, "1,000 points" refers to Gross Ratings points that measures the reach and frequency of an ad campaign. One GRP represents 1% of the target audience reached by an advertisement. If a TV ad reaches 1% of a target audience of 100,000 people, that’s 1 GRP. If the ad airs multiple times, the GRPs accumulate. This means the ad campaign has achieved a cumulative reach equivalent to 1,000% of the target audience. For instance, it could mean reaching 100% of the audience 10 times (frequency) or 50% of the audience 20 times, depending on the campaign structure.

Thanks, but that's like going to summer school. Time to jump in the pool and sign along with this.

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Sam Bregman

Silencing the loquacious Sam Bregman could be likened to trying to quiet a Harley-Davidson, but direct attacks on the new state Democratic Party chairman by Governor Martinez appear to be doing the trick. In her latest fund-raising email the Governor personally hammers Bregman for his role in emailgate and chides him for retreating under a veil of silence:

...Federal indictments were handed down related to the illegal interception of my personal and political emails. Those emails...ended up being published on the Internet...The same grand jury that indicted a fired former staffer who I refused to hire in the administration, also indicted a Democratic political operative whose computer was seized by the FBI in the course of the email-theft investigation. But the Democrat was indicted for something much more serious than email theft--he was indicted for the child pornography the FBI found when they raided his house. This Democrat operative...was the PAC Manager at the time of the email theft for the now Democratic Party Chairman Sam Bregman. Not surprisingly, the Democratic Party Chairman is now refusing to answer any questions about what he knew about the scheme to steal and distribute personal and political emails.

This is the second time Martinez has personally taken on Bregman, The first time was in a Facebook posting earlier this month. At the time Bregman came with this retort:

"Governor Martinez, need I remind you that as a lawyer you are an officer of the court and you have professional responsibilities...You should take a refresher course to better understand that you should not attempt to use your position as Governor to influence, inject politics into or bully the US Attorney’s office in their investigation, all while attempting to deflect the investigation of your shadow governor, Jay McCleskey and the Dirty Downs Scandal. Or perhaps your motive is to change the conversation from the miserable, sorry job that you have done as Governor when it comes to creating jobs in this state and educating our children..."Regardless, I will not make further comments regarding the criminal investigation and you should reconsider your current behavior as the Governor...”

It's that last line from Bregman--"I will not make further comments" that has Dems concerned if Bregman is permanently on the defensive against Martinez--just as the 14' re-election cycle begins.

The battle here is for the political narrative--is it about Martinez's email account being hijacked by her former campaign manager and making her a "victim" of a political dirty trick and perhaps a criminal act? Or is this really more about what was on some of the hijacked emails concerning a 25 year racino lease for the ABQ Downs and allegations of bid-rigging?

Bregman shifted the argument over to the Downs deal in that June 6 statement, but he has been silent on the major emailgate news of the week--a renewed interest by the press in obtaining travel records for a 2011 Louisiana hunting trip taken by First Gentleman Chuck Franco and two state policemen serving as his security detail.

Bregman promised a much more boisterous and effective attack on Martinez than that given by former Chairman Javier Gonzales. But on what could be the preeminent issue for giving the Governor a run for her money--the Downs deal--the question is whether Bregman has been silenced. If he has, can he still be effective without the sharpest arrow in his quiver?

As for Martinez, her decision to go toe-to-toe with her political rivals despite sporting an approval rating north of 60% is seen by political pros as her way of rallying the GOP base. They say '14 will be a low turnout election and throwing red meat out there is one way to get the R's into the voting booths and raise campaign cash. The downside is that the gubernatorial nastiness might not play well with Dems and independents so keeping it "all in the Republican family" is probably the play for now.

EMAILGATE AND MEDIA

The Martinez fund-raising letter came on the same day when the ABQ Journal editorialized on the stonewalling the press and public is getting from the administration on the release of expense records for Franco's now controversial Louisiana alligator hunting trip. The trip took place at the same time the administration was negotiating the Downs racino lease. Two owners of the Downs live in Louisiana.

The administration says the Downs owners did not provide lodging or food to Franco and his police protectors nor did anyone else involved with state government or politics. But the administration steadfastly refuses to say who "privately hosted" the state policemen and Franco, arguing doing so would compromise "security."

The Journal appeared to be dragging its feet on the story after the New Mexican was first refused the Franco records, but in their editorial they joined the journalistic hunting party:

Also not forthcoming are details of expenses paid for first gentleman Chuck Franco’s 2011 alligator-hunting trip in Louisiana and copies of Martinez’ past or present calendars, so the public can know when she’s been in Santa Fe or elsewhere... The administration should reassess its position and avoid a legal battle that will likely end with the records being declared public, the taxpayers getting stuck with hefty legal bills and the public more cynical than ever.

It is key that the paper mentioned the records for the Franco trip. The NM Foundation for Open Government (FOG) has filed a request for the Governor's state police expense records under the Inspection of Public Records Act (IPRA), but only for the three months leading up to the 2012 presidential election. The hunting trip took place in September 2011.

We had some computer glitches Wednesday and some of you may have already seen our piece on the FOG action. For those who didn't, the question we raised was why FOG is not taking legal action to get the Franco trip records and that someone ought to. Why not the ABQ Journal?

We're asking for the records of where he and his taxpayer paid escorts were lodged and fed on each night of the Louisiana vacation--even if it was complimentary and there is no "expense" record.

Well, one way or another the Franco trip records are bound to surface. Only then will we see if there is some kind of smoking gun there or much ado about nothing. Meanwhile, the Governor is starting to spend the political capital she has accumulated with her most stalwart media allies. Ultimately, they have to answer to the public--not her.

EICHENBERG IN 

Former Bernalillo County Treasurer Pat Padilla now has company in the Dem race for State Treasurer. Former ABQ NE Heights state Senator Tim Eichenberg makes his run official:

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013 Not for reproduction without permission of the author