Sen. Heinrich

For a member of the state's congressional delegation, Senator Martin Heinrich is taking a rare foray into state politics. He's publicly endorsing the years-long drive to use a portion of the state's giant Land Grant Permanent Fund (over $14 billion) to fund very early childhood programs. And Heinrich's announcement had edge--he made it before the ABQ Chamber of Commerce, the epicenter of opposition to the proposal:

I don’t think there’s any denying that expanding access to high-quality early childhood education would generate a significant return on investment for our state, and I think the time is now to take that investment seriously and look at how we can give a leg up to New Mexico’s next generation. . . I know that this proposal does not come without controversy. I recognize that many people view this fund, rightly so, as our rainy day fund. But I have news: It is raining. And it is time to think out of the box about how we lay the groundwork for our state for decades to come.

(Complete speech to the Chamber is here.)

The state's drift even further downward in the national rankings has given the Permanent Fund proposal--which would have to be approved by voters--more momentum. But the Governor who is presiding over the decline was quick to get her back up over Heinrich's aggressive move. Her office said:

It’s no surprise that a Washington politician, with the country nearly $18 trillion in debt, has no problem raiding our children’s savings account.

Clearly there is no love lost between Martinez and Heinrich, but is the slash, burn and attack message from the Governor really necessary?  If she had to say anything at this time, how about a genuine rebuttal based on the facts? Incessant campaign-style negativity is the hallmark of the Fourth Floor and it could be wearing thin.

According to one Dem who tracks such things, that recent TV ad from the Governor making fun of Dem Guv nominee Gary King by putting a crown on his head and saying, "It's good to be King" did not play well with the public and the ad was pulled. We can't verify that, but the fact that Martinez and the Republican Governors Association spent $1 million in negative TV ads to finish off King but couldn't tells us that New Mexicans may be ready for a more serious dialogue.

In that light, Heinrich's timing on supporting the early childhood amendment may have been right on the money.

And if she's re-elected, Martinez may find a public much less patient with her permanent campaign and looking for points on the board.

THE POWERHOUSE MODEL

Domenici

With the departure of political powerhouses like GOP Senator Pete Domenici, Dem Guv Big Bill and ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, observers have been looking at Heinrich to see if he is cut from similar cloth. His move on the early childhood amendment positions him at the head of the class in addressing the social conditions debacle. It is a center-left move in a state where the Democratic Party has been veering center-right--and losing. (Sen. Udall and ABQ Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham have not taken a position on the amendment).

Unlike much of his in-state party brethren Heinrich has not backed down in the face of the Martinez political machine. As we reported back in July, he came with this critique in a fund-raising letter on behalf of Gary King:

. . . A common question I get asked is: “Are you happy with the job Governor Martinez is doing?” And I’m going to be honest – I am not happy at all. In fact, I’ve come to conclude that the Martinez Administration is anti-economic growth. Time and again, she’s turned her back on opportunities to capitalize on our state’s private sector potential. . .

Heinrich is a freshman Senator only two years into his term and not up for re-election until 2018. Still, the future arrives fast. His push into the chief social issues will make a primary challenge from a Hispanic Democrat less likely and it also puts Martinez and her machine on notice that he will take them on--if she and they are still around then.

Ultimately, it is about leadership. Domenici, Richardson, Chavez and before them Senators Dennis Chavez and Clinton Anderson cast decades-long shadows across the state and city. Some of them could be said to have had "machines" of their own. Heinrich is currently the only active Democratic state politician showing any potential to do the same. His successful dive into the Sun Zia transmission line controversy and now his declaration for the early childhood amendment separates him from his risk-averse contemporaries.

It's too early to tell where Heinrich is going. At 42, maybe he isn't quite sure himself. His interest in the powerhouse model may or may not excite him. His occasional flexing of muscle occurs as the state drifts along in an era of minimalist leadership making the moves stand out. That will raise hope in some quarters and fear in others. This is a slow playing poker game that is best described by that old cliche, "Time will tell."

POVERTY OF IDEAS

Jim McClure is a conservative reader who does not support the early childhood amendment. He comes with this:

Part of the problem is a poverty of ideas. Gov. Martinez’s efforts have chipped at the edges of the problem by emulating some of the factors of successful states. She’s made the tax and regulatory structure a little more business-friendly, although the legislature blocked worker’s comp reform, and is making a bumbling start on education reform. But there’s not much proactive work going on and the state economic development department is largely AWOL. It’s been a halfway effort: We’re still uncompetitive with other states and have failed to aggressively promote what we have.

But I’m not hearing any ideas from the Democrats, either. Gary King’s platform consists largely of rolling back education reform and sticking it to large companies: hardly a formula for attracting private employers. I could support a plan to loosen the purse strings for some infrastructure projects, but all King proposes is to plow more tax dollars into unaccountable school systems. His only plan to create new jobs is to launch an early education program--which will employ a bunch of adults whether or not it helps the kids.

I am not seeing any proposals from either party to capitalize on tourism, leverage the recreation potential of our new national monuments, partner with employers on workforce development programs or put the state on the list of best places to retire. What we most need is to attract new residents to New Mexico, either as employees or retirees. And some new politicians.

AT THE MOVIES

With  holiday weekend here, reader Eric Lucero is at the movies. ABQ show times here:

Calvary ( R ) ****1/2 “Agatha Christie channels Edgar Allen Poe…a lot is going on here…picturesque…Brendan Gleeson’s performance is his best.”

Guardians of the Galaxy (PG-13) **** “…This century’s "Star Wars.”

When the Game Stands Tall (PG-13) **** “…Inspirational, exceptional, and a moral commentary…”

Boyhood ( R ) **** "Unique technique…using same actor from adolescent to cusp of manhood…gritty, realistic portray of life.”

The Hundred Foot Journey (PG-13) ***1/2, “Helen Mirren delivers…supported by a wonderful international cast.”

Saints & Soldiers: The Void (PG-13)(2012) *** “Tries to portray racial conflict amid tank battles vying for control of Berlin at close of WWII…a potent warm up for Pitt’s epic Fury (2014).”

Magic in the Moonlight (PG-13) *** “As always, Woody Allen's comedic wit is an acquired taste…Colin Firth’s fine performance augments, but can’t carry…”

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (PG-13) ***“…With the advent of Ebola, this re-booted franchise is topical, but far too preachy.”

Thanks for stopping by. Enjoy the holiday. 

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Blogging New Mexico

Welcome back. Here's some political potpourri direct from the Starbucks that happens to be without air conditioning. For those who think we can get too long-winded, that won't happen today.

Who says New Mexico can't soar to the top? Well, practice makes perfect:

U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Albuquerque is recognized as the most efficient bankruptcy court in the country during 2013 in a recent analysis of information in consumer filings from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.

And we have more chart-topping NM news for you. This study says we're #2 when it comes to fatal police shootings:

Arizona leads with 5.2 deaths per million, followed by New Mexico (4.1 deaths per 1 million), Florida (3.9 deaths) and Texas (3.9 deaths). Note the broad swath of dark red running across the Southwest. The West Coast follows closely behind, with Utah (3.5 deaths), California (2.9 deaths) and Oregon (2.8 deaths).

You don't have to wait long around here, do you? The latest:

Authorities say Bloomfield police have fatally shot a man following a report of a domestic dispute. . . The man was shot Wednesday and died after he was transported to the San Juan Regional Medical Center.

Crime is one reason the state has been undergoing an outmigration of people in recent years, but the lousy economy is far and away the prime reason many folks are heading for the U-Haul lot.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, New Mexico had an outmigration of 9,750 people between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2013. It means that more people left the state than came here. New Mexico was the only southwestern state that suffered an outmigration. Albuquerque Business First talked with more than a dozen former New Mexicans to find out why they left. The main reasons were economics and more opportunity elsewhere, followed by high crime and bad schools.

JOBS, AMMO AND BROOKINGS

Susana did announce there will be 250 manufacturing jobs coming to Los Lunas but when you read the fine print it goes like this:

About 100 permanent jobs will be created within the first year, and about 150 temporary construction jobs to build the plant, said Ralph Mims, the village’s economic development manager.

So that 250 that played so well on TV is really "about 100."

The state has bled tens of thousands of jobs during this Great Recession which the Bookings Institution says is now a double-dip recession in the ABQ metro. Funny, we haven't read anything in the local paper about that Brookings finding. Maybe the new business editor over there might want to read the Business First article or, of course, yer little 'ol blog. And then they could go ask Mayor Berry what he thinks about the recession here. And then we woke up from the dream. . .

And Gary King what are you waiting for? How much ammo do you need before you start firing? Okay, you need cash. Still, it must be hard to pass up this kind of news happening on Martinez's watch:

The Albuquerque metropolitan area’s unemployment rate ticked up to 7.7 percent in July, as the area lost 1,500 jobs from June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. The month-over-month jobless rate rose in Farmington, decreased slightly in Santa Fe and was unchanged in Las Cruces, according to the BLS’s figures. . .

My Lord, if the Dems don't get moving soon, Ron Bell is going to sue them for political malpractice. . .

Here's just what we need. Not.

The city of Albuquerque is tapping Dr. Paul Guerin with UNM’s Institute for Social Research to run a comprehensive $50,000 study looking into lapel camera use at APD. “An audit to look at how on-body video should be used by patrol police officers and other police services, whether it should record everything or select items,” said Albuquerque chief administrative officer Rob Perry. The study will also look at whether APD can better enforce its lapel camera policy.

Okay, Rob, you are ripe for an Alligator strike on this one. To the Pond:

I thought the city already had a policy. When the lapel cameras make APD look good, turn them on and get the video out immediately. When the video makes APD look bad, turn the damned things off or find some way to get rid of the tape.

DOWN THE BALLOT


The lower ballot races like secretary of state are starting to come into sight as the contenders pick up their campaign activity. Today in Santa Fe those interested will get a chance to get a close-up look at candidates in at least three of the major down ballot races--secretary of state, land commissioner and state auditor. The NM Business Coalition is sponsoring a "job interview" session for the hopefuls. The event starts at 5 p.m. at the Santa Fe Women's club. More info here. Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie T. Oliver faces GOP Secretary of State Dianna Duran; Land Commissioner Ray Powell faces GOP rancher Aubrey Dunn and ABQ State Senator Tim Keller faces ABQ attorney Robert Aragon for state auditor.

As for the other down ballot races not featured at today's forum, former ABQ State Sen. Tim Eichenberg faces Republican Rick Lopez for state treasurer and Dem Hector Balderas is facing off with Susan Riedel for attorney general.

Currently, the only down ballot office occupied by the R's is secretary of state. That contest is getting some national attention with the liberal site Daily Kos putting it on its list of key SOS races to watch.

R's hope a low turnout and a conservative leaning electorate will hold them in good stead. But Dems say they have fielded strong candidates and believe they are set up for a down ballot sweep.

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Will the right wing think tanks learn anything from this period of state history? The Martinez administration reports the state is projected to end the budget year next June with a cash surplus of nearly $700 million or 11.3 percent of the state's over $6 billion budget. In addition, the state work force has been reduced and the Republican administration has done away with numerous environmental and other regulations.

That, in essence, was the program the public was told would give New Mexico robust private sector growth. Clearly, it has failed. We rank even worse in most economic and social conditions standings than we did four years ago, And you can't blame it all on cuts in Federal spending. Economic activity--apart from the oil fields generating that state surplus--is lackluster or nonexistent. So what do the austerity hawks say now? More austerity?

The right-wing think tanks--desperate to hold their ground--are now floating that old canard that a "right to work" law will bring a free market explosion of jobs. Remember, a couple of years ago when the mantra was cutting corporate taxes and economic paradise would result? Well, we did but we don't see any Fortune 500 companies jumping the gun to get here. Expect the same with a right to work law on the books: nothing. In a state with few union employees outside of government, it is an irrelevancy. We challenge the far right to name one significant company that has decided not to locate to New Mexico because it does not have a right to work law. Just one, please.

You can't blame Democratic control of the legislature for the state's economic failings. The opposition party shares in those failings. Martinez's economic package featuring corporate tax cuts was embraced by the Democratic-controlled legislature.

Santa Fe's four year austerity program has run its course. The intellectual exhaustion is palpable. The policy rigidity that marks the modern Republican Party, the Martinez administration and the Martinez Senate Democrats has left them nowhere to turn. There they sit, stuck in a rut hoping for something--anything--to magically come along and finally prove them right.

The problem is not just economics, it's trust, The austerity hawks--not without some cause--have argued that Santa Fe is so incompetent it is incapable of spending money effectively so it's best to hoard it or we could face an even worse fate. Unfortunately, some of this is tinged with racial politics--that Hispanic politicians in particular are prone to throwing money around and padding the payrolls.

The state is truly at a crossroads. We don't see much fight out there yet to tackle the immense issues that have shadowed NM for so long. And because of the long-standing economic drift those issues are now crushing an even larger percentage of the population.

Maybe what we see is what we get for the next couple of decades--stagnation featuring low-wage jobs punctuated by periodic wails for even more tax cuts, a right to work law and other red herrings that distract us from looking at the elephant in the room. For the "haves" that are so well represented by the  right wing think tanks and their corporate media allies, that's fine. Not so much for everyone else.

THE MARTINEZ DEMOCRATS

Speaking of Martinez Democrats, ABQ School Board member Marty Esquivel is a charter member. And he keeps his bona fides intact with the Fourth and Fifth Floors by resigning from the board of the open government group FOG. Why? For putting some heat on Public Education Secretary Hanna Skandera over the recent resignation of Winston Brooks, ABQ Public Schools superintendent. Skandera must approve a $350,000 APS board approved buyout for Brooks, but FOG says she shouldn't do it until the APS board releases the results of the probe that led to Brooks' resignation.

An irony here is that Esquivel is the attorney for KRQE-TV and often argues open government cases on behalf of the station.

ABQ GOP City Councilor Brad Winter was recently named interim APS superintendent so with Marty on the board and Brad heading up the super's office, APS is definitely Fourth Floor friendly. We will be well-advised to analyze major APS decisions to come in that context.

ANTI-INCUMBENT MOOD?

Is last night's primary election defeat of Navajo Nation President Ben Shelly signaling an anti-incumbent mood? Well, maybe partially. The man who came in first in the 17 candidate field was a semi-incumbent--former Navajo President Joe Shirley. He advances to the November general election along with second place finisher Chris Deschene. It was a resounding defeat for Shelly. He appears to have finished 7th in a 17 candidate field. Results here.

RADIO CRASH (PART III)

First there was the news that 50,000 watt conservative radio talker KKOB-AM had crashed in the ratings, garnering a mere 4.9 percent of the ABQ area listening audience in the latest ratings--a modern day low. Then there was the explanation from reader Paul Donisthorpe who said many are getting their talk radio fix from satellite radio and on the Internet. Now reader Bill Peifer weighs in with Part III:

While it’s true that many devotees of right-wing talk radio can now get their talking points on satellite radio and streaming live, the same thing is true for lefties who want to listen to Thom Hartmann or Ed Schultz and it can also be said for music lovers of all genres. The reality is that all traditional media outlets are taking hits in this digital age, so Donisthorpe’s view doesn’t even begin to explain why KKOB’s ratings are dropping. I propose a different explanation:

Readers come with a number of different angles on that unusual Spanish language TV debate that Gov. Martinez and Gary King will take part in October 6 on ABQ's KLUZ-TV. Martinez says she will debate in Spanish while King says he will use an interpreter.

While the pundits said it could be awkward for King using an interpreter and give Martinez the advantage, this reader says it is Susana who needs the debate more than Gary:

After reading your blog about the debate I reviewed the ABQ Journal's poll to confirm what jumped out: King leads Martinez by 20 points with Hispanic voters. He leads Martinez by 29 points in the north-central region. The reason Gov. Martinez agreed to this debate, while dissing others, is that she knows she is losing the Hispanic vote and she can't win without it. The Hispanic vote, especially Northern Hispanic vote, is what got her elected during her first campaign. The current numbers cited above make it clear that that mistake will not be made again.

We would add that it is not unusual for Martinez to be losing the Hispanic vote. She received around 40 percent of it in her 2010 election which is a strong showing for a Republican. That recent Journal poll showed her getting 36% of the Hispanic vote in the early going. A strong Dem candidacy could be expected to hold her to the low 30's. So far, that's not happening. . .

Her decision to debate on KLUZ is low-risk. It will not be heavily watched but sends the right signal to the Hispanic community. But her decision is not completely without risk, says this reader:

It won't be as easy for her as people many think. Martinez's Spanish will pass for a greeting but she does not have educated Spanish and technical jargon and that could trip her up. There is a chance that King will come across more prepared to lead.

Well, it would be a sight to see if Susana had to depend on the interpreter after pledging to conduct the debate in Spanish. . .

Reader Preciliano Martin writes from Raton:

I have no idea why Gary King would go on "Spanish language TV" to debate Martinez. It is a mystery to me. Is he trying to reach the new immigrants who vote in NM, certainly he is not reaching for the old Hispanic families. He was iffy for me after his going after former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil Giron and his problems with State Auditor Hector Balderas. I wish I could support Democratic Lt. Governor candidate Deb Haaland, but I will forgo voting for governor in November. Can't vote for Martinez and won't vote for King.

DASH FOR DOLLARS


The fund-raising circuit is bustling now that we are that much closer to the heat of the campaigns. Southern Public Regulation Commission (PRC) contender Sandy Jones will hold a bash at ABQ's Chama River Brewing Company Wednesday at 5 p.m. He aims to oust GOP incumbent commissioner Ben Hall. Jones, a former PRC member, is asking $500 a pop but "any amount is appreciated."

The "Our NM PAC" is hosting a reception at the Backstreet Grill in ABQ's Old Town today at 5:30 p.m. to promote the state House candidacy of attorney Matt McQueen. He's the Dem seeking to oust GOP Rep. Vickie Perea who was appointed to the East Mountain/Santa Fe County seat to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Stephen Easley passed away. McQueen is heavily favored to recapture this Dem leaning seat. Hosts for the event are Dem State Sen. Jacob Candelaria and Reps. Mimi Stewart and Rick Miera. All of them are from ABQ. . .

The race for Bernalillo County sheriff should get hot as there is no incumbent running. Sheriff Houston was defeated in the June primary by fellow Republican Scott Baird. Manny Gonzales who served briefly as an appointed sheriff is the Dem nominee for the post. Baird is having a $250 a pop fund-raiser Wednesday night at Tanoan Country Club hosted in part by GOP City Councilors Don Harris and Tim Lewis. Gonzales and Baird are both experienced lawmen and both sides agree each could end up spending over six figures. . .

National labor is hosting a Sept. 9 DC fund-raiser for Gary King, hoping to raise some big bucks for his cash-starved candidacy. Former Governor Big Bill is among those pushing the event. Will any big spending groups form independent PAC's to advocate for King? We'll keep watching. . .

OIL GUSHER

Everyone talks about the state's dependence on federal government spending, but what about its dependence on oil and gas revenues? It's getting to be over the top. The Martinez administration predicts the state will have some $285 million in new money for the fiscal year that starts next July 1 not because of an improving overall state economy but because of the long bull market in oil prices in SE NM.

There's never been an oil boom in state history that didn't end in a bust so when will the next one come and what will it mean to state finances? Well, enjoy the party while it lasts. .

IMAGE WATCH

Reader Gerald Schneider writes from ABQ's Old Town:

I just returned from a trip to Las Vegas, NV. I was playing blackjack and the dealer was making conversation with the table. Someone asked where he was from. He mentioned a couple of places, then said, "Spent 5 years in Albuquerque." I said that I was from Albuquerque. His response was, "Are the cops still crazy there?" I sat there embarrassed. The other players were kind enough not to ask any questions. Couldn't help but think how that comment affected perceptions of Albuquerque. Certainly didn't do us any good!

Thanks, Gerald. There may be a few "crazy" cops at APD but numerous observers point to the culture of the leadership there that has brought chaos to the department and national embarrassment to our city.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We erred in a first draft in blogging the poll numbers Monday in the US Senate race from the recent ABQ Journal poll. The correct numbers are Sen. Udall with 53% and Republican Allen Weh with 35 percent.. . Some trail dust got kicked up when Weh on Monday came with his first negative TV ad on Udall. The 60 second sport faults Udall and Obama for the nation's foreign policy but in doing so uses a couple of frames of the masked killer of journalist James Foley. Udall called use of the photo "appalling" but Weh supporters hopes it cements his GOP base, peels off conservative indys and maybe raises some cash.

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Say what? Gary King is going to debate Gov. Martinez on a Spanish-language TV station and use an interpreter while she addresses the audience in Spanish? Well, this is the kind of forced error that happens when you are 9 points behind and struggling to fund a campaign. Even the few Republicans who will watch this Oct. 19 face-off on ABQ's KLUZ-TV may find themselves having sympathy for King as he subjects himself to the awkwardness. Sometimes its best to just say no. . .

Meanwhile the Dem Guv nominee does seem to be getting his message tightened up and if he can package it right, it could resonate. In Farmington he said:

If we have a good education system in New Mexico, it'll drive a better economy, it'll give young people more job opportunities when they graduate. . . 

And in the ABQ Journal profile of his candidacy Sunday, he said:

We have no job growth, essentially, so that’s no way to deal with poverty.

But King has to directly indict Martinez for the lack of progress without letting the negative campaign splash back at him. It's really not that difficult. The trap for the Dems and their pollsters is falling for the belief that they are really close and that a careful, conservative campaign will get the job done. It won't.

The odds are long and risks--especially in attacking Martinez--will need to be taken if there is to be an upset. In his newspaper profile King refused to acknowledge he is the underdog, opting for the more optimistic "challenger" label.  But the underdog is the person expected to lose. That's King. And that's what he needs to embrace in order to be able to take chances to get the race in play.

TWO DRIVERS

Gary King

There are the two drivers for King--education and the economy. And for him the economy is the gift that keeps on giving. Look at these stats:

Since October, 155,000 New Mexico residents have joined the state’s Medicaid rolls, pushing total enrollment to more than 630,000, or nearly a third of the state’s population. On top of that, 410,000 New Mexicans are enrolled in Medicare, the federal health care program for the elderly. Together, total enrollment in those two federal programs are more than 1 million, or half of the state’s 2.1 million population. Medicaid is the joint state-federal program for children from low-income families and low-income adults. . .Medicaid rolls will swell to 720,000, or a third of the state’s population, in the next couple of years. That would put 1.1 million New Mexicans on the two government programs.

For King this is the low-lying fruit of the campaign. UNM economics professor Allen Parkman nails the talking point:


Becky Weh does the heavy lifting in Allen Weh's first TV spot of the '14 US Senate campaign. She details the impressive military record of the former NM GOP chairman in a well-produced ad. The spot works to cement his GOP base while softening up female voters. But it may be one of the few positive ads we see from Weh. He trails Dem US Senator Tom Udall 53-35 in the latest polling and will have to fall back on his combat experience if he is to gain on him.

NAVAJO GATOR

Covering the entire spectrum of La Politica, NM Politics with Joe Monahan now takes you direct to the Navajo Nation for the inside scoop on the 2014 primary election for the presidency of the Navajo Nation. Our corresponent is "NavajoGator:"


WINTER RETURNS