There will be a Democratic reaction to the Trump presidential win when the Legislature meets in January. Wall-Leaners say a proposal first given voice here calling for tax relief for lower income New Mexicans is in the works on the D side. It will come in the wake of many Hispanic voters in the state going over to the Trump side with the economy being a central concern for the move.

It was suggested here that earners reporting less than $45,000 in annual income owe no state income tax and that the cut could easily be covered by the enormous surpluses piling up from the oil and gas boom. What the specific Dem bill will propose is not clear yet--but one is coming. 

Jeff Apodaca, whose NM Project pushes for more Hispanic representation in state offices, comes with this analysis of the Trump win:

Hilary Clinton gave us Donald Trump for the first time The progressives have given us Donald Trump for a second time! The progresses have pushed Latino and black men out of Dem party. I'm not saying they love Trump, they're just voting Republican because of the progressive Dems. 

Apodaca confirms that he is mulling over a race for ABQ mayor next year and should have a decision in January.

Reader Freddie Lopez adds:

Legislative Republicans should make their focus eliminating taxes on all Social Security income as well as eliminating the state income tax on certain households during the session. Many Hispanic voters are citing inflation as one of their main concerns. By Republicans addressing the economic uneasiness that voters have, it would also make the Democrats talking points about Republicans wanting to eliminate abortion moot because their priority is the economy, not abortion. 

The Democrats could beat the R's to the punch, if they can see it in their progressive hearts to directly recognize the concerns of lower income households for a change and give abortion, climate change and transgender rights a little rest. 

NEW GOP LEADERS

Farmington Senator Bill Sharer has been in the Senate for nearly 25 years but can he moderate his often ultra-conservative tone now that he is the new state Senate GOP Minority Leader? From the GOP caucus: 

The Senate Republican Caucus unanimously elected new leadership with Senator Bill Sharer (R-Farmington) as the new Minority Leader, Senator Pat Woods (R-Broadview) as the new Minority Whip, and Senator David Gallegos (R-Eunice) as the new Caucus Chair.  “I am honored to be chosen for the position of Caucus Leader,” said Senator Sharer. "I intend to usher in an era of unity and conservative principles.The overtaxed and hard-working men and women of New Mexico will have a voice in this caucus. Now is not the time to sit idly by."

So Bill, show us the tax cut for all those non Republicans not pulling down six figures.

TOM RUTHERFORD

Tom Rutherford was a political boy genius who grew into an elder statesman of La Politica. 

He was only 25 when first elected to the state Senate from ABQ in 1972. He went on to serve there for 24 years, until 1996, when he departed with the title of Senate Majority Leader. 

Rutherford's defining legacy was probably outside of politics. He was a radio announcer at KOB radio in 1972 when he co-founded what today is known as the ABQ International Balloon Fiesta. That event has become one of the world's major tourist attractions, bringing pleasure to untold millions, and an integral part of the state economy. 

That early act was tough to top but Rutherford went on to earn a law degree in 1982 while building his 24 year stretch as a state senator, which he followed with two terms on the Bernalillo County Commission. 

Blessed with a velvety baritone, a keen intellect and a political pedigree nurtured by his father who also served in the legislature, Rutherford brought star power to the Senate. But his one and only effort to go statewide did not take. The young senator lost a battle for the 1978 Democratic lieutenant governor nomination.  

After nearly 30 years in elective office, in 2004 he switched to the lobbying arena, joining with his son Jeremy to form the successful Rutherford Group.

Rutherford's health failed a number of years ago and forced him to withdraw from public life.

It was those rising star years that former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez recalled when he informed us of Rutherford's death that took place Tuesday evening:

He was an outstanding New Mexican and member of the Senate. Senate President Ike Smalley (a conservative) christened him Lancelot when he first arrived. Ike asked me to please try to get Tom and Senator Manny Aragon (another ambitious rising star) to be more cooperative with him. Ike thought I could work it out. Not a chance! Tom will be missed. 

Tom Rutherford was 77.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Mayoral candidate Eddy Aragon tells us he is a registered Republican again after announcing in a news release he had switched to independent. When he becomes a liberal Democrat we’ll let you know that, too.  

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A crime beat that never seems to pause; a continued flow of fentanyl; 100 murders a year; APD mired in an historic bribery scandal sapping police morale and public confidence; a downtown still downtrodden; a Nob Hill that can't find its economic footing; a freeway system that appears to have been ceded to F-1 racers and a growing homeless problem.

Yes, there's a wheelbarrow full of issues for wanna be ABQ mayors to campaign on as the page turns on Election '24 and the '25 mayoral battle creeps closer.

Last Tuesday's mayoral elections on the West Coast have certainly grabbed the attention of Mayor Tim Keller as he prepares to campaign for an unprecedented third consecutive four year term. 

Rejections of progressive mayors in San Francisco and Portland could be an early warning for him as a more conservative environment envelopes the nation with the election of Donald Trump. 

In San Francisco:

Mayor London Breed conceded her quest for a second full term after Daniel Lurie, a nonprofit founder and Levi Strauss heir, held on to a steady lead through 14 rounds of ranked-choice voting. . .Lurie pitched himself as an outsider, betting that his lack of experience would be more boon than burden during a deeply unsettled time for the city. It paid off. With his victory, residents appeared to be sending a resounding message: They were so fed up with the status quo that the best person to address the city’s most dire problems was someone who has never held office. Lurie held 56 percent of the vote to nearly 44 percent for Breed, who has presided during a period of increased homelessness, public drug use and a downtown business exodus, all of which the pandemic supercharged.

And in Portland:

Voters elected political outsider Keith Wilson as their new mayor, following a campaign in which he capitalized on years of growing frustration over homeless encampments, open drug use and quality of life concerns. . .Wilson. . .ran on an ambitious pledge to end unsheltered homelessness within a year of taking office. The Portland native says he will accomplish this in part by increasing the number of nighttime walk-in emergency shelters. . . His message. . . resonated in a city where surveys. . .have shown homelessness as a top issue.  “It’s time to end unsheltered homelessness and open drug use, and it’s time to restore public safety in Portland. Voters aren’t interested in pointing fingers. They just want us to get things done.”He said.

There are early signs that Mayor Keller may try to paint ABQ's troubles as partly a perception problem, similar to what national Democrats tried with the economy but only to lose the White House and Congress.

Not that the city is in a bubble of entirely bad news. 

Innovative plans to revive downtown and reduce homelessness are in the works, including the eventual opening of the delayed and costly Gateway Center. Basic and vital city services such as water, garbage, road repairs and the Sunport seem satisfactory to the public. 

Still ABQ remains adrift, too riddled with crime, little population or economic growth and housing and rental prices continuing their climb (Nob Hill biz closures are a sign of that).

But it will be the bitter stew of crime served up to voters as the main course when the campaign commences in January for the November election. 

JUMPING IN 

Eddy Aragon

Conservative radio talk show host Eddy Aragon, 49, who ran for mayor in 2021 and finished third behind Keller and then-Sheriff Manny Gonzales but managed 18 percent of the vote, says he's coming back for another run.

He is a no longer a Republican but an independent, citing the failure of the divided NM GOP to put points on the election scorecard. 

He did not loudly support Trump this year as he did in 2020 but says Trump's election is a major reason for his comeback attempt:

Americans and New Mexicans value strong leadership, regardless of party affiliation. No one predicted that Trump would come within a few points of Kamala Harris in New Mexico (or) within a few points of Harris with the Hispanic vote nationwide. Hard times demand strong leaders. The hard times caused by the Biden/Harris and Keller administrations have made voters re-examine their voting habits. Is voting for a Democratic mayor worth our city being ranked worst in crime among America’s 50 biggest cities? Of course not. Albuquerque voters want a return to common-sense leadership that will end our city’s crime plague. 

Aragon's campaign also took aim at a favorite conservative target but a policy still popular in a Democratic city:

Keller’s declaration of Albuquerque as a sanctuary city in 2018. . .worsened Albuquerque’s immigration crisis and allowed the city to be overrun by violent drug gangs, leading to more than 1,600 tragic deaths from fentanyl during Keller’s two terms. 

The mayoral math has Keller's backers hoping at least one more conservative joins the race and splits up that vote as occurred in 2021 when Keller won a majority of Democrats and was elected with 56 percent of the vote. But Aragon is hoping that his candidacy will help clear out other conservatives from running.

The Mayor's hope for an easy glidepath could collide with his low approval ratings and the concerns over crime. Will those factors generate a serious Democratic challenge (or challengers) to the incumbent and give ABQ a spirited battle over its future?

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Old Man Gloom

For Dems overdosing on election anxiety and angst, how about this: the Santa Fe Kiwanis Club makes more history and has a special burning of Zozobra to cast off their election gloom. Does January 20, 2025 for the "Second Burning" sound about right? Or January 6? (Free admission for any Republican with an up-to date driver's license.)

Santa Fe is an appropriate site for Democrats to mourn the national results. The county gave Harris her biggest win among the state's 33 counties with 73 percent of their vote. 

Her worst county was Lea in SE oil country where Trump won with 80 percent.  

Yvette Herrell's unsuccessful run  this year against Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez was her fourth time as the GOP nominee for the southern congressional seat. She has only won once. Was '24 her final outing? It could be for her but the GOP could keep up the fight. 

The race was only a nail-biter in the sense that the late returns heavily favoring Vasquez in Bernalillo and Dona Ana counties did not come in until late in the evening, keeping the race close. 

But at the end he won by double-digits in the raw vote beating Herrell in unofficial returns 136,733 to 126,400 or 10,333 votes. 

That's a victory of  52.0 to 48.0 percent and a far cry from '22 when Herrell closed the gap to 1,350 votes. 

These results reveal the "lean Democratic" nature of the new district. However, the race seems close enough that Republicans might take another shot in 2026, an off-year election when turnout will drop and presumably give the GOP a better chance.

BERNCO AND DONA

This year the Dem leaning precincts in Bernalillo and Dona Ana made up 57 percent of the 263,000 votes cast in the sprawling district and and Vasquez prevailed in both. 

In Bernalillo county, the Westside and South Valley precincts went for him 59.4 to 40.6 percent. Vasquez received 40,321 votes to Herrell's 27,591, a 15,730 vote pick up. 

In Dona Ana he won 57.6 to 42.4 percent or 47,458 to 35,002, a pick-up of 12,456. 

Herrell trimmed those numbers in more rural areas but came up over 10,000 short. 

This corner and others said before the election that if the Dems won the district again this year, the Republicans might give up in the future.

But for that happen Vasquez probably would have needed to match the true Dem lean of the district which is six percent in his favor. 

By finishing well but not decisively he left the door open for possibly another rigorous challenge in two years.

INSIDE THE RESULTS

With the dust settled on Election '24, we  call on one of our Senior Alligators (of the Dem variety) for down-the-middle analysis of where state politics stands:

The Democratic Party here and nationally is no longer the party of working people. They lost that moniker through their own negligence.

Here in New Mexico the day goes to Sen. Heinrich and Rep. Vasquez.

Republican Yvette Herrell, running against Vasquez, didn’t have a distinguishing message and didn’t have the mojo of the past. As Trump would say, she was “low energy.” 

Heinrich was smart to run up the score on Domenici (he won by 9.8 percent) and is looking more like a front-runner for Governor. 

Assuming he becomes Ranking Member on the Senate Energy Committee, he will have a national voice in combating Trump on energy and environmental policy—that will help him with fund-raising and building a stronger profile. 

(Sec. of Interior) Deb Haaland is still a force will be out of a job soon. Does she have the energy to run or has Heinrich effectively bullied her out of the Governor’s race?

People would be mistaken to think that there will be some resurgence of Republicans in this state. They provided another lackluster performance. So the Dems have every opportunity to step up and re-fashion their party. 

Will they lean into their tendency to go left and continue an anti-Trump rampage or will they start talking about the issues that matter to people like jobs and crime? In NM will they finally make wholesale changes to education and health care? 

MLG can put in a heroic last two years on these issues or she can just give up and fade into the ether.

We would add to that interesting analysis that BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman is now another possible Dem Guv hopeful. 

Also, now that Haaland will be out as cabinet secretary in January, does she announce a Guv candidacy soon after to try to keep Heinrich out? A close supporter of Haaland declares, "everywhere Deb goes New Mexicans are asking her to run."

HISPANIC SURGE

An out of touch Democratic party or sexism and misogyny. or both? More on the Trump Hispanic surge:

In 2020, Latino men went for President Biden over Trump by a 23 point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent. Four years later, they flipped, voting for Trump over Harris by a 12 point margin, 55 percent to 43 percent.

The gigantic swing among those voters contrasted with a more modest swing among Latina women, whose 69 percent backing for Biden in 2020 ticked down to 60 percent backing Harris.

Explanations vary for exactly why the shift occurred among Latino men. Pro-Trump voices contend that the president-elect’s economic message resonated with Latino voters generally, and that perceived Democratic overreach on social and cultural issues such as trans rights might have alienated Latino men in particular.

A different, harsher thesis is that sexism and racism might have been the catalysts for the fall-off in support for a female Democratic nominee of Black and Indian descent. 

Sexism and racism? Hardly: 

About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters were “very concerned” about the cost of food and groceries, slightly more than about two thirds of voters overall, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Nearly two thirds of Hispanic voters said that they were “very concerned” about their housing costs, compared with about half of voters overall.

THE BOTTOM LINES

As usual there was a bit of uncertainty Election Night on where the balance of power in the state legislature settled and that was reflected in our first blog report early Wednesday. 

When all the votes were in Republicans picked up one seat in the state House where the Dems will still have a large majority of 44 to 26. 

There was a gain of one GOP seat in the state Senate. The party split there will now be 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans.

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