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A crime beat that never seems to pause; a continued flow of fentanyl; 100 murders a year; APD mired in an historic bribery scandal sapping police morale and public confidence; a downtown still downtrodden; a Nob Hill that can't find its economic footing; a freeway system that appears to have been ceded to F-1 racers and a growing homeless problem.

Yes, there's a wheelbarrow full of issues for wanna be ABQ mayors to campaign on as the page turns on Election '24 and the '25 mayoral battle creeps closer.

Last Tuesday's mayoral elections on the West Coast have certainly grabbed the attention of Mayor Tim Keller as he prepares to campaign for an unprecedented third consecutive four year term. 

Rejections of progressive mayors in San Francisco and Portland could be an early warning for him as a more conservative environment envelopes the nation with the election of Donald Trump. 

In San Francisco:

Mayor London Breed conceded her quest for a second full term after Daniel Lurie, a nonprofit founder and Levi Strauss heir, held on to a steady lead through 14 rounds of ranked-choice voting. . .Lurie pitched himself as an outsider, betting that his lack of experience would be more boon than burden during a deeply unsettled time for the city. It paid off. With his victory, residents appeared to be sending a resounding message: They were so fed up with the status quo that the best person to address the city’s most dire problems was someone who has never held office. Lurie held 56 percent of the vote to nearly 44 percent for Breed, who has presided during a period of increased homelessness, public drug use and a downtown business exodus, all of which the pandemic supercharged.

And in Portland:

Voters elected political outsider Keith Wilson as their new mayor, following a campaign in which he capitalized on years of growing frustration over homeless encampments, open drug use and quality of life concerns. . .Wilson. . .ran on an ambitious pledge to end unsheltered homelessness within a year of taking office. The Portland native says he will accomplish this in part by increasing the number of nighttime walk-in emergency shelters. . . His message. . . resonated in a city where surveys. . .have shown homelessness as a top issue.  “It’s time to end unsheltered homelessness and open drug use, and it’s time to restore public safety in Portland. Voters aren’t interested in pointing fingers. They just want us to get things done.”He said.

There are early signs that Mayor Keller may try to paint ABQ's troubles as partly a perception problem, similar to what national Democrats tried with the economy but only to lose the White House and Congress.

Not that the city is in a bubble of entirely bad news. 

Innovative plans to revive downtown and reduce homelessness are in the works, including the eventual opening of the delayed and costly Gateway Center. Basic and vital city services such as water, garbage, road repairs and the Sunport seem satisfactory to the public. 

Still ABQ remains adrift, too riddled with crime, little population or economic growth and housing and rental prices continuing their climb (Nob Hill biz closures are a sign of that).

But it will be the bitter stew of crime served up to voters as the main course when the campaign commences in January for the November election. 

JUMPING IN 

Eddy Aragon

Conservative radio talk show host Eddy Aragon, 49, who ran for mayor in 2021 and finished third behind Keller and then-Sheriff Manny Gonzales but managed 18 percent of the vote, says he's coming back for another run.

He is a no longer a Republican but an independent, citing the failure of the divided NM GOP to put points on the election scorecard. 

He did not loudly support Trump this year as he did in 2020 but says Trump's election is a major reason for his comeback attempt:

Americans and New Mexicans value strong leadership, regardless of party affiliation. No one predicted that Trump would come within a few points of Kamala Harris in New Mexico (or) within a few points of Harris with the Hispanic vote nationwide. Hard times demand strong leaders. The hard times caused by the Biden/Harris and Keller administrations have made voters re-examine their voting habits. Is voting for a Democratic mayor worth our city being ranked worst in crime among America’s 50 biggest cities? Of course not. Albuquerque voters want a return to common-sense leadership that will end our city’s crime plague. 

Aragon's campaign also took aim at a favorite conservative target but a policy still popular in a Democratic city:

Keller’s declaration of Albuquerque as a sanctuary city in 2018. . .worsened Albuquerque’s immigration crisis and allowed the city to be overrun by violent drug gangs, leading to more than 1,600 tragic deaths from fentanyl during Keller’s two terms. 

The mayoral math has Keller's backers hoping at least one more conservative joins the race and splits up that vote as occurred in 2021 when Keller won a majority of Democrats and was elected with 56 percent of the vote. But Aragon is hoping that his candidacy will help clear out other conservatives from running.

The Mayor's hope for an easy glidepath could collide with his low approval ratings and the concerns over crime. Will those factors generate a serious Democratic challenge (or challengers) to the incumbent and give ABQ a spirited battle over its future?

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Old Man Gloom

For Dems overdosing on election anxiety and angst, how about this: the Santa Fe Kiwanis Club makes more history and has a special burning of Zozobra to cast off their election gloom. Does January 20, 2025 for the "Second Burning" sound about right? Or January 6? (Free admission for any Republican with an up-to date driver's license.)

Santa Fe is an appropriate site for Democrats to mourn the national results. The county gave Harris her biggest win among the state's 33 counties with 73 percent of their vote. 

Her worst county was Lea in SE oil country where Trump won with 80 percent.  

Yvette Herrell's unsuccessful run  this year against Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez was her fourth time as the GOP nominee for the southern congressional seat. She has only won once. Was '24 her final outing? It could be for her but the GOP could keep up the fight. 

The race was only a nail-biter in the sense that the late returns heavily favoring Vasquez in Bernalillo and Dona Ana counties did not come in until late in the evening, keeping the race close. 

But at the end he won by double-digits in the raw vote beating Herrell in unofficial returns 136,733 to 126,400 or 10,333 votes. 

That's a victory of  52.0 to 48.0 percent and a far cry from '22 when Herrell closed the gap to 1,350 votes. 

These results reveal the "lean Democratic" nature of the new district. However, the race seems close enough that Republicans might take another shot in 2026, an off-year election when turnout will drop and presumably give the GOP a better chance.

BERNCO AND DONA

This year the Dem leaning precincts in Bernalillo and Dona Ana made up 57 percent of the 263,000 votes cast in the sprawling district and and Vasquez prevailed in both. 

In Bernalillo county, the Westside and South Valley precincts went for him 59.4 to 40.6 percent. Vasquez received 40,321 votes to Herrell's 27,591, a 15,730 vote pick up. 

In Dona Ana he won 57.6 to 42.4 percent or 47,458 to 35,002, a pick-up of 12,456. 

Herrell trimmed those numbers in more rural areas but came up over 10,000 short. 

This corner and others said before the election that if the Dems won the district again this year, the Republicans might give up in the future.

But for that happen Vasquez probably would have needed to match the true Dem lean of the district which is six percent in his favor. 

By finishing well but not decisively he left the door open for possibly another rigorous challenge in two years.

INSIDE THE RESULTS

With the dust settled on Election '24, we  call on one of our Senior Alligators (of the Dem variety) for down-the-middle analysis of where state politics stands:

The Democratic Party here and nationally is no longer the party of working people. They lost that moniker through their own negligence.

Here in New Mexico the day goes to Sen. Heinrich and Rep. Vasquez.

Republican Yvette Herrell, running against Vasquez, didn’t have a distinguishing message and didn’t have the mojo of the past. As Trump would say, she was “low energy.” 

Heinrich was smart to run up the score on Domenici (he won by 9.8 percent) and is looking more like a front-runner for Governor. 

Assuming he becomes Ranking Member on the Senate Energy Committee, he will have a national voice in combating Trump on energy and environmental policy—that will help him with fund-raising and building a stronger profile. 

(Sec. of Interior) Deb Haaland is still a force will be out of a job soon. Does she have the energy to run or has Heinrich effectively bullied her out of the Governor’s race?

People would be mistaken to think that there will be some resurgence of Republicans in this state. They provided another lackluster performance. So the Dems have every opportunity to step up and re-fashion their party. 

Will they lean into their tendency to go left and continue an anti-Trump rampage or will they start talking about the issues that matter to people like jobs and crime? In NM will they finally make wholesale changes to education and health care? 

MLG can put in a heroic last two years on these issues or she can just give up and fade into the ether.

We would add to that interesting analysis that BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman is now another possible Dem Guv hopeful. 

Also, now that Haaland will be out as cabinet secretary in January, does she announce a Guv candidacy soon after to try to keep Heinrich out? A close supporter of Haaland declares, "everywhere Deb goes New Mexicans are asking her to run."

HISPANIC SURGE

An out of touch Democratic party or sexism and misogyny. or both? More on the Trump Hispanic surge:

In 2020, Latino men went for President Biden over Trump by a 23 point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent. Four years later, they flipped, voting for Trump over Harris by a 12 point margin, 55 percent to 43 percent.

The gigantic swing among those voters contrasted with a more modest swing among Latina women, whose 69 percent backing for Biden in 2020 ticked down to 60 percent backing Harris.

Explanations vary for exactly why the shift occurred among Latino men. Pro-Trump voices contend that the president-elect’s economic message resonated with Latino voters generally, and that perceived Democratic overreach on social and cultural issues such as trans rights might have alienated Latino men in particular.

A different, harsher thesis is that sexism and racism might have been the catalysts for the fall-off in support for a female Democratic nominee of Black and Indian descent. 

Sexism and racism? Hardly: 

About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters were “very concerned” about the cost of food and groceries, slightly more than about two thirds of voters overall, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Nearly two thirds of Hispanic voters said that they were “very concerned” about their housing costs, compared with about half of voters overall.

THE BOTTOM LINES

As usual there was a bit of uncertainty Election Night on where the balance of power in the state legislature settled and that was reflected in our first blog report early Wednesday. 

When all the votes were in Republicans picked up one seat in the state House where the Dems will still have a large majority of 44 to 26. 

There was a gain of one GOP seat in the state Senate. The party split there will now be 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

NYT photo

He didn't carry the state but by turning in the best New Mexico performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years Donald Trump gave his party here the pen and paper to start writing a new narrative to get itself out of the basement. Whether they seize the opportunity is up in the air.

Trump was losing the state to VP Harris early Wednesday 51.56 percent to 46.01 percent. (All election results here.)

That losing margin of 5.5 percent is the best GOP presidential showing since George W. Bush carried the state by a fraction of a percent over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. Trump appeared especially empowered by Hispanics and independents.

While the GOP was taking note of Trump's unexpected strength, the progressive wing of the Democratic party received a wake up call with the message that they are overdue for some navel gazing over how they have been handling economic and crime issues.

For MLG Election Night was a career ender. There will be no big job in DC with a President Harris but another two years of mud wrestling with the legislature. Her private sector prospects seem much brighter.

The disastrous national results for the Dems in which Trump was prevailing in both the popular vote and the Electoral College was made possible by attracting voters of color to his coalition. 

In New Mexico it appeared it was Hispanic Democratic men leading the march away from their party, joined by a multitude of independents, many of them angry and dissatisfied with their economic circumstances and runaway crime while Democratic party elites take little notice of them.

Veteran political analyst, attorney and former legislator Greg Payne messaged us Election Day, predicting that Trump would win with 312 electoral votes. That number looks close to being correct. 

Earlier he had warned Democrats that Trump's Halloween visit to New Mexico was a direct play to inflate his numbers with Hispanics here and elsewhere. It worked. 

So now what? Payne says:

Trump has shown Republicans how to get back in the game. There was so much fluidity and cross over voting with this electorate, with gender and ethnicity breaking usual patterns. The party now needs a new face for the Governor in '26. That means no Susana Martinez or Nella Domenici or the forces associated with them, but someone from the outside, someone new and exciting who can cobble together the coalition that Trump did and build on it. 

THIRD FOR HEINRICH

Heinrich (Journal)

While Democrats ached over the Trump national win and his overachieving here, Dem Sen. Martin Heinrich had a good night, handily defeating Republican Nella Domenici and winning a third term in the US Senate. 

That term, however, won't be as much fun as his party last night lost the Senate majority to the GOP. That might have Heinrich increasing his interest of running for Governor in '26.

Heinrich ran three points ahead of Harris, an unusual occurrence and another measure of Trump's prowess. Heinrich ran up the score against Domenici, 55 to 45 percent. 

Domenici had refused to embrace Trump until the very end of her campaign. It turned out to be the wrong move. 

US HOUSE 

Rep. Gabe Vasquez had to wait until late on Election Night for final returns from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties to secure a second term in the US House as he defeated Republican Yvette Herrell 52 to 48, her second loss in a row to him.

Republican analysts on our KANW radio panel said she will not be their party's candidate again. 

Vasquez may stay in the minority in the House as it appeared the GOP chances of holding on to their majority were improving.

US Reps Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez led the Democratic ticket in percentage terms, each getting 56 percent against their opponents in their safe districts. 

LEGISLATIVE ACTION

Republicans picked up one seat in the state House but the Dems will still have a large majority of 44 to 26. There was a gain of one GOP seat in the Senate. The party split will be 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans. 

(We've updated these numbers from earlier reports that were based on incomplete returns.)

Rebecca Dow defeated incumbent Dem Tara Jaramillo in a T or C area race and was already being mentioned as possibly the next House Minority Leader as Rep. Rod Montoya plans to bow out. 

Republican Nicole Chavez won the only ABQ state House seat held by the GOP, pushing away a stiff challenge from the Dems. 

Democrat Michelle Sandoval lost her second attempt to take a House seat in Rio Rancho District 57 that GOP Rep. Jason Harper is leaving. She trailed Republican Catherine Cullen by over 300 votes in the wee hours. 

Senator Martin Hickey, in a closely watched race in ABQ's NE Heights, defeated Republican Wayne Yevoli.

Turnout for the '24 general election was in line with past presidential years with about 67 percent of registered voters or some 920,000 casting ballots when everything is tallied.  

Thanks to all of our guest experts on KANW Election Night and to all who tuned in.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Join us for a New Mexico tradition, Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.COM. We start at 6:30 and will have it all from DC to Deming--and with the exclusive insider info you've come to expect. See you tonight!

Who better to sum up the feelings of the nation about this election than retired CBS news anchorman Dan Rather who helmed Election Night coverage for decades. From Austin, the now 93 year old Rather writes: 

Save your sanity. A Washington Post headline Monday proclaimed: “The Election is Uncertain, But It Might Not Be Close.” This takes covering one’s backside to an art form. With equivocation like that, no wonder everyone’s so anxious and exhausted, spiraling in a vortex of doomscrolling. The point is, no one knows anything for certain.  

Besides the uncertainty there's the anxiety that this election seems to have induced more than most. The Atlantic reports: 

This year, Americans of all political loyalties are finding the election anxiety-inducing: A recent survey survey from the American Psychological Association found that 69 percent of polled adults rated the U.S. presidential election as a significant source of stress, a major jump from 52 percent in 2016 (and a slight bump from 68 percent in 2020).

Well, the anxiety ridden can always look forward to an Election Night party, if so inclined. State Democrats will host one at Isleta Resort and Casino for all their candidates, supporters and volunteers. The party's big names all plan on attending and presumably cheering a Trump defeat--at least in New Mexico if not the nation. They include: 

Senator Martin Heinrich, Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez, Congresswoman Melanie Stansbury, Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller, DPNM Chair Jessica Velasquez, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and NM House Speaker Javier Martínez,

GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici has been heavily promoting her Election Night Watch Party. She's getting a head start, opening the doors to the event at Hotel ABQ in Old Town at 6 p.m. Her bash has become the de facto party place as the state party is not having an official gathering.

If Nella loses, will she then turn around and run for NM Governor in 2026? Maybe she'll take the proceeds from the busy bar tonight and start a new campaign kitty.

As for yours truly we've known where we will spend Election Night for, well, decades--on the airwaves of public radio station KANW-89.1 FM and kanw.com. This is the tenth presidential election we will anchor  for the station.

So it's that time again, an Election Night that will have hearts pounding and, as Dan Rather says, so filled with tension that it will make your fingernails sweat. 

I love America--no matter how crazy it gets--and we're ready to go.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Rep. Hochman-Vigil

The thing about this Election Night is you can't wait for it to start and you can't wait for it to end. 

Voters yearn for a resolution of the months-long and achingly close (at least according to the polls) presidential race as well as the lengthy and advertising-packed congressional races here. Well, tonight is their night.

We'll launch our live, continuous wall-to-wall coverage on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com at 6:30 with the latest results from the presidential contest in the early closing states. 

Soon after 7 p.m.--when the polls close--a tsunami of early results will tell the tale in most of the key state races. 

That's when the heavy lifting of analysis and reporting comes into play and once again we'll have a powerhouse panel to dice and slice Election '24 as only political connoisseurs can do. 

This year it is a number of state House races that are the political enigma. We're bringing back three term District 15 ABQ Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil to keep you informed on how the chamber is shaping up for the next legislative session in January. She's an accomplished attorney who is an expert in aviation and space law and chairs the House Transportation Committee. She also has a degree in Italian studies and French Language. That could come in handy since figuring out La Politica can sometimes be like learning a foreign tongue.

He's arguably the state's foremost expert on election law. And boy, do we ever need that at our traditional roundtable tonight. ABQ Dem state Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto (District 15) has sponsored and written many of the laws that guide today's state elections. The attorney has chaired the Senate Rules Committee and is leaving the senate this year after three terms. His commentary will be a must listen for political junkies and maybe even a few civilians.

The song says "You're Gonna Miss Me When I'm Gone." And so it is with the liberal lion of the state senate, Jerry Oritz y Pino. He's retiring from his District 12 seat after five terms at the Roundhouse where his always active and passionate voice on behalf of disadvantaged citizens gives him a legacy that will be built on by new generations. Politically, the Senate has been mired in intrigue while the House has been the new muscle in town. We'll again call on Jerry to see how the arm-twisting will play out as voters put some new faces in place. (And we might even throw him a retirement party with chicharrones.) 

State Republicans have been in a dark tunnel so long they've developed night vision. Longtime GOP operative Jamie Estrada will join us again (as he did back in 2012) and is assigned to interrupt your loquacious anchorman if he spots any light at the end of that tunnel as results roll in. Estrada has been working feversily on this year's key legislative races as a PAC consultant. His Republican bona fides include a stint in the Bush administration's Commerce Department. He'll ceratinly get down to business tonight.

Abeyta

Sisto Abeyta has been around a while. He started hanging our at our Election Night broadcasts in the 90's when he was an aide to a state Senator. The Valencia county native long ago graduated from that role to become one of the state's most prominent lobbyists as well as a savvy campaign consultant. He prides himself on being a keeper of the historic flame of La Politica that will again burn brightly this evening. If need be, he says he'll burn the Midnight Oil to call every legislative contest. Hey, no pressure Sisto.

Robert Aragon was the second youngest person ever elected to the state legislature when he achieved the feat in the 80's at the age of 21. Back then he was a conservative Dem but then became a Republican who is a former chairman of the Bernalillo County GOP as well as a onetime First Vice-Chair of the NMGOP. The longtime ABQ attorney and his family (his dad was former ABQ state Rep. Bennie Aragon) bring a wealth of political history to the broadcast. And what's an Election Night if not history?

We'll have other special guests who will add their expertise to the mix as we again bring you the most up-to-the-minute results and the best analysis of New Mexico politics you will find anywhere (plus a lot of fun). 

We look forward to having you join us for this New Mexico Election Night tradition tonight tomorrow on KANW and kanw.com at 6:30 p.m. See you then.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Our Election Eve Special kicks off at 5 p.m. today. Hear it at KANW 89.1 FM and at kanw.com.

The suspense of New Mexico Campaign '24 will be resolved quickly if Donald Trump is elected tomorrow night but if VP Kamala Harris wins, the suspense will only be beginning.

That's because if Harris makes it to the White House the state could very likely see a new Governor take the helm here next year. 

Also, for  the first time in history, three New Mexicans could conceivably serve together in a presidential cabinet. (Heck, two would be a record.)

While the outcome of the major races here remains quite predictable as the state continues to wade in a sea of blue, the question of the state's future leadership is essentially on the ballot.

Gov. Lujan Grisham continues to earn mentions that she is bound for a high-level position--possibly the cabinet--in the administration of a President Harris:

Biden vetted the New Mexico governor for the Health and Human Servies post four years ago, so she is well known to Harris’ team and a friend of the vice president, who officiated her 2022 wedding and initially considered her as a potential running mate. Her experience serving as New Mexico’s health secretary before her election to Congress aligns with a Cabinet post at HHS, and her outspokenness on reproductive rights since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has echoed Harris’ own speeches on the matter.

Not only is MLG a possible cabinet pick under Harris but former southern NM US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Agriculture, is now seen by the crystal ball gazers as a top contender to become Secretary of Agriculture should Harris prevail. 

And Mike Connor, a native of Taos Pueblo who leads the US Army Corp of Engineers, is a possible Harris pick for Secretary of Interior should Sec. Deb Haaland leave and launch a '26 Guv run and/or be replaced by Harris. About him:

An old hand in policy circles around Washington, Connor held the No. 2 spot at Interior during the Obama administration and was a runner-up for the top Interior spot under Biden.

THE XTS FILE

Torres Small

Torres Small, raised in Las Cruces, has been a rising star in state politics from the start. Smart, able and charismatic, the Democrat was unable to hold on to the then conservative southern congressional district for more than one term. But her talent won her the job of Deputy Secretary of Agriculture under Biden. 

Her expertise in rural issues, experience on the Hill and becoming the first woman of color to be Secretary of Agriculture puts her at the top of possibles, according to the DC chattering class. 

There's no disagreement here. We would add that if there were to be a vacancy in one of our US Senate positions, she would also belong at the top of that list of possible replacements.

HOWIE'S SUSPENSE

The suspense for Lt. Governor Howie Morales is 20 on a scale of 10 as he would become the state's next Democratic Governor should MLG depart. He is mostly an unknown to the New Mexican public, having been below the radar for the nearly six years he has served with MLG.

Whether he would seek the governorship in his own right in '26 is unknown but as a former state senator from the Silver City area, he is a creature of the legislature who could have better luck with lawmakers than the Governor has had of late. But the flash take from the Roundhouse Wall-Leaners is that Morales could be in danger from a legislature freed from MLG and that could run roughshod over him. 

What agenda Morales, a professional educator, would pursue as the state continues to pile up mammoth reserves from the energy boom is unknown. That's what makes for more suspense--if Harris wins.  

TRUMP AND NM

President Trump had no New Mexicans in his cabinet during his term and no local GOP names appear to be circulating as possibles should he be elected tomorrow night. 

But Trump's first term as president was not hurtful to the state. And when it came to the military-industrial complex--the military bases and Sandia and Los Alamos National Labs--their budgets grew robustly as well as their employment,

Bizarre rumors that the conservative Project 2025 plan could mean major cutbacks to the nonnuclear portion of the labs' budgets does not hold up under scrutiny.

Such lab cuts would require both White House and congressional approval even as support for their work today is at a bipartisan high point. 

Again, Trump's record as president lends no credence to the scare and no congressional representatives who deal with national security have raised the matter of budget slashing.

Ditto for the state's bases including ABQ's Kirtland Air Force Base, home to 23,000 employees, many active military. A shutdown scare in the 90's was thwarted and there hasn't been another since. The standing of Kirtland remains sturdy. While a shutdown scare last year at at Cannon AFB in Clovis did mean some cutbacks, the base came out strongly positioned to continue its mission indefinitely. 

As usual, New Mexico has much to worry about in its own backyard including an ABQ crime wave that now appears to be spreading to our state capitol but the state's financial position in Washington--no matter who controls the presidency--appears positive on the cusp of a presidential election that been gripping and grueling.

FINAL PREZ POLLING

A final batch of polling in the NM presidential race is out and reinforces the view that VP Harris will be the fifth Democratic nominee in a row--dating back to 2008--to win the race for the White House here.

SurveyUSA reports their poll from Oct. 28-31 has Harris leading Trump 50 to 44 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percent. 

The firm says that "among men, Trump leads by 6 points; among women, Harris leads by 18, a 24-point gender gap."

Their September survey had it 50 to 42 for Harris.

The mid-October ABQ Journal poll had Harris at 50 and Trump at 41. Other candidates had 5 percent and only 4 percent were undecided.  

Trump visited ABQ Oct. 31, the final day of the SurveyUSA poll and if he is getting a bump that could help him improve on his 2020 performance when he lost the state to Biden by 10.79 percent. 

Harris has been running slightly weaker in the NM polling than Biden did four years ago as Trump's performance with Hispanics, especially male Hispanics, is stronger this time.

VOTER TURNOUT

Voters like to vote early and they did it again this election, if not quite as much as 2020 when Covid kept folks away from the voting booths and preferring mail-in ballots. 

Early voting ended Saturday and the SOS reports 663,874 votes have been cast before Election Day this time. 

As usual, the majority Dems voted most with 46.2 percent of the total followed by the GOP with 36.6 and independents with 15.8 percent. 

We expect around 261,000 voters to go to the polls tomorrow to make the total presidential vote reach around 925,000 or close to 68 percent of the 1.377 million registered voters which is the percentage turnout we had in 2020. 

If so, that would mean early votes would comprise about 70 percent of all votes for president. (Final total turnout will be higher because not everyone votes for president.)

OUR ELECTION EVE SPECIAL

Join us for our live Election Eve Special today at 5 p.m. on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com when we dare our panel to make risky predictions about the key races up for grabs tomorrow. 

That's always fun and the predictions are usually spot on. But if any of the predictors run afoul, the boo birds will greet them on Election Night. 

Our guests include ABQ state Senators Daniel Ivey-Soto and Jerry Ortiz y Pino, ABQ Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil and the dean of the state capitol political press corp, Dan Boyd of the ABQ Journal. 

So join the fun of Campaign '24 and drop by KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com today at 5 p.m. and of course tomorrow night--Election Night--for our wall-to-wall coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. 

Thanks for tuning in. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Trump in ABQ (Moore, Journal)

Former President Donald Trump made a concerted bid for the state's Hispanic vote Thursday afternoon as he roused a crowd of several thousand at an ABQ rally, declaring, "I love Hispanics! The crowd, gathered on a tarmac at CSI Aviation near the Sunport, roared their approval. 

Trump declared: 

I’m here for one very simple reason. I like you very much, and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community. New Mexico, look, don’t make me waste a whole damn half a day here,” he continued. “You know, we could be nice to each other, or we can talk turkey. Let’s talk turkey. I love the Hispanics. I love them. I love Hispanics. 

He also said that Hispanics are “entrepreneurial as hell and work their asses off.”

Trump, coming off of an embarrassing Sunday rally in New York where Puerto Ricans and Hispanics were disparaged by guest speakers, had rally goers take a poll on whether Hispanics preferred being called Latino. Hispanics won big with a round of applause and cheering.

The former president's speech, as usual for these events, went for nearly 90 minutes. He repeatedly cited problems at the border as a chief reason for New Mexicans to vote for him even as he overstated the problems the state is having by claiming that our border issues are worse than any other state. 

Trump is far behind VP Harris in the New Mexico polling and we are no longer a swing state but a person associated with the campaign said:  

With the former president folding the stops into respective trips to the swing states of Nevada and Arizona on Friday, and to North Carolina on Saturday, it “doesn’t cost a lot” to land the plane in New Mexico and Virginia, said a person familiar with the campaign’s strategy, granted anonymity to speak openly about the visitDoing so will offer an “adrenaline blast” to Trump supporters in those states, while creating at least a day’s worth of news there right before ballots are cast Tuesday.

GOP consultant Bob Cornelius said the visit "could help Trump turn out votes in southern areas of the state." 

Towards the end of his talk Trump gave a shout-out to GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenici, congressional candidate Yvette Herrell, former Governor Susana Martinez as well as NMGOP Chairman Steve Pearce.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

What's that New Mexico Democrats? You say you're not getting Halloween shivers up and down your spines from this imposing picture of Trump even though he's only hours away from touching down for his noon ABQ rally?

Well, you're a brave bunch but we bet a few D's watching a certain congressional race are feeling the fear today. 

As for the NMGOP, they're trying to scare their opponents by going door-to-door disguised as pro-Trump political analysts and asking that votes be placed in their trick or treat bags. 

It turns out it's mostly a trick. 

Let's take a look at what the NMGOP is saying at voters' doorsteps:

New Mexico has been trending red in recent polling, leading to pollsters now labeling the state a toss-up. 

No, it has not been trending red. The polls have VP Harris beating Trump here 50 to 41 percent. No high-quality surveys show the race to be anywhere near being a toss-up.

The GOP:

Between Trump gaining strong support from Hispanic voters and the top issues for New Mexicans being the economy and the border, New Mexico is now positioned as a key battleground state. 

Some of that is true. Trump is polling near historic highs here among Hispanics, garnering 41 percent support in the Journal survey. If he hits that mark next Tuesday with Hispanic voters it would apparently be a modern day record for a GOP prez hopeful. And the economy and border are big issues for the overall electorate. However, we are currently not and have not been a "battleground state" since 2008. 

More GOP fright for the Dems:

President Trump is neck and neck with Harris in our state. His visit could ignite the spark needed to motivate our voters to hit the polls to flip New Mexico red. 

Again there is no good evidence at all that the race here is neck and neck. However Trump's visit could "ignite" some support for GOP southern congressional district candidate Yvette Herrell who needs more votes in ABQ's South Valley and Westside if she is to upset Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez. 

Finally, in the spirit of Halloween and one last try to scare the dickens out of the Harris backers, here's a final, unfiltered point from the R's:

New Mexicans are not happy with the state of the economy and the open border, and Kamala Harris represents more of the same failed policies. . . President Trump. . . wants to eliminate taxes on Social Security, tipped wages, and overtime. He will usher in true American energy independence, lowering gas prices and bringing down inflation. He will safeguard our daughters’ opportunities by ensuring they are not forced to compete against men and have men in their locker rooms.

So that's the big Boo! from the GOP to the Dems today. 

(Hey, is that MLG shaking like a leaf over there?)

THE VISIT 

The kerfuffle over parking for the Trump visit that took place between the GOP and the State Land Office has been resolved and the rally is on. Details for those going today:

Parking will be available in multiple locations off-site from the venue with shuttles providing transportation to the venue. Uber, Lyft, and ride-share services are encouraged. Ride-share drop-off location is at 2327 Clark Carr Road SE.

Parking locations: a private lot at 5441 Turing Drive SE; a lot near the Albuquerque International Sunport at 1501 Aircraft Ave. SE; and a lot at Montage at Mesa del Sol, 2702 Stryker Road SE. 

Parking will open at 5:00 a.m. Shuttles begin operating at 5:30 a.m. and doors at the event venue, CSI Aviation, open at 8 a.m. Event programming will begin promptly at 10 a.m., and remarks will begin at noon.

We'll update the blog this afternoon following Trump's ABQ speech.

JERRY SANDEL 

We've received word of the death of Jerry Sandel, a conservative Democrat from the Farmington area who became a state capitol powerhouse during his 30 years in office from 1971 to 2000. 

Sandel made a fortune in the oil and gas business and was known for his financial acumen during his time in Santa Fe. Details of his passing were not immediately available. 

Sandel was 82.

OUR ELECTION COVERAGE

It's almost time for our special election coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com. 

We're as excited to get going as we were when we started the tradition for the station back in 1988 and even when we did our very first radio election night coverage in 1974. Yikes!

We're back with our live pre-game show this year and that will tip off at 5 p.m. Monday with top experts like Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil and veteran ABQ Journal capitol reporter Dan Boyd and others. 

Then it's on to Election Night with a 6:30 p.m. start for live, continuous coverage all night long. Among the experts at our table will be longtime Republican consultant Jamie Estrada who is on those legislative races like white on rice.

We'll have more details of our coverage next week.

KANW is once again where it's at for the inside story of Election Night with up to the minute results, the best expert analysis and the most fun. As always, we invite you to join us and thank you for doing so.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

If turnout is similar to that of 2020 then nearly half the votes that will be cast in Election '24 are in the bank. 

The SOS reports that through Monday 444,521 New Mexicans have made their voices heard by voting absentee or at early voting locations. 

If the vote total for this year's presidential race matches the roughly 924,000 who turned out for the 2020 contest then 48 percent of the total vote is already in. 

Early voting continues to grow in popularity although it is not expected to match the early turnout of 2020 which was inflated by the Covid outbreak. 

Still, most votes will be cast before the actual election day of November 5 signifying voter comfort with the option as well as the efficiency implementing it by Secretary of State Toulouse Oliver and Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover and her colleagues across the state.   

The partisan lean in the early ballots is 48 percent Democratic, 37 Republican and 15 percent independents and others. That's in line with recent patterns and signals that races where large polling leads are evident are not going to turn into upsets.

Those include the presidential contest going to VP Harris, Sen. Heinrich winning re-election as well as US Reps. Stansbury and Leger Fernandez.

The race between Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell remains a lean Democratic contest but still with the possibility of an upset. Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta explains:

Joe, Herrell's last stand is precincts in the South Valley of ABQ and westside. She needs to get close to Gabe there--tie him or come within a couple of points--or else the race is his. We will be able to tell from the early vote results in Bernalillo county whether this race takes us through the night or is put to bed early.

Those Dem-leaning BernCo precincts make up about 25 percent of the total vote in the 2nd District. Another 25 percent come from Dem dominated Dona Ana county where Vasquez served as a Las Cruces city councilor. 

TRUMP HERE TOMORROW

Maybe the Halloween Trump visit will help Herrell pop the turnout in BernCo? But disparaging comments made about Puerto Rico and Hispanics by a comedian at Trump's Sunday Madison Square Garden rally raised questions about his Hispanic support going forward.

Trump will rally the faithful at a noon rally tomorrow. ABQ airport officials say

The Albuquerque International Sunport received confirmation from the Republican Party of New Mexico that former President Trump will be holding a rally at CSI Aviation, a Fixed Based Operator (FBO) located south of the main terminal. Please note: The event will not be held at the Sunport’s main terminal. The Sunport anticipates no impacts to commercial flight operations for this event. . . The Isleta Amphitheatre, located at 5601 University Blvd SE, will be providing shuttles from their parking lot to CSI Aviation. 

CSI is owned by former NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh, a major GOP donor, and a longtime contractor for the federal government. 

DEM TRUMP REACT

State Dems are letting loose with the vitriol over the Trump visit to Blue New Mexico. MLG fires this volley:

I'm disappointed that Donald Trump is bringing his cruel, racist schtick to New Mexico — home to the nation's largest percentage of Hispanic residents — just days after his buddy called our Puerto Rican brothers and sisters 'garbage' at a campaign rally in New York. . .

Trump has said he did not know the comedian who made the remarks about Puerto Rico. (MLG stands to get a new job if VP Harris is elected.)

State Dems brought GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici into the fray:

After months of dodging questions, Nella Domenici has finally made her alliance clear: she will stand beside former President and convicted felon Donald Trump at his rally in Albuquerque this Thursday. Nella’s journey from self-proclaimed “moderate” and “independent thinker” to MAGA devotee has been swift and decisive. For a candidate who once publicly insisted she would not endorse Trump or seek his approval, her sharp right turn raises important questions about where she truly stands. 

Do you get the sense that the Dems are trying to run up the score against Nella? They already have her on the canvas, but with Heinrich still eyeing a possible '26 Guv run the plan appears to be to try to beat her by 10 points or more. 

Heinrich's high mark in a Senate election is 54 percent. The base GOP vote is 45 percent but Domenici just recently moved to 40 percent in the latest polling.

CONVENTION CENTER, REALLY?

2016 ABQ Trump Rally (NYT)

What can we add to the dispute over whether the Trump campaign was seriously interested in renting the ABQ Convention Center for their rally tomorrow but the city said it wasn't available because of a water line repair in progress?

Well, after a near riot at the 2016 Trump ABQ Convention Center rally (which yours truly walked home from through smoke-filled air) was this really a serious inquiry? A security nightmare again? 

And, considering Trump is on a tight schedule to get to Nevada following his ABQ stop were they really thinking about hauling him downtown and back?  Or were they routinely checking a variety of possible rally locations as they do as a matter of course?

Anyway, GOP Councilor Dan Lewis can call off the dogs he sicced on Dem Mayor Keller over the bizarre flap and the Mayor can give up on trying to collect money he says the city is owed by the Trump campaign for a past visit. They've said enough.

By the way, we reported a number of months ago that Lewis had told us he will not seek the mayor's office next year when Keller seeks a third term. Lewis lost to Keller in the '17 mayoral contest.

SAME DAY VOTING

A new twist in state elections is the ability to register to vote and cast your ballot on the same day. Common Cause reports it's an option that is being taken advantage of:

You can now register and vote on the same day during the early voting period or on election day. Previously, voter registration ended weeks before the election and if you weren’t registered you were out of luck. In the current election, 9,280 New Mexicans have utilized this option as of Monday Oct. 28

TWO DOCS

There are two medical doctors in the state legislature--not only one as we first blogged Tuesday. Republican Senator Greg Shcmedes, a doctor, is still in the Senate although he is not seeking re-election to his East Mountain ABQ area seat and will depart in January. If ABQ Dem Senator Martin Hickey, the focus of our Tuesday report, is re-elected he will be the sole MD in the Legislature. Still no doctor in the House, though.

Be sure to join us for our traditional Election Night coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM  and kanw.com starting at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and for our pre-game show Monday, November 4 at 5 p.m. 

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

There's no doctors in the House but there are two in the state Senate and one of them is working to come up with just the right prescription to fend off an unexpectedly strong challenge from his Republican opponent. 

Dr. Martin Hickey is seeking a second four year term from Senate District 20 in ABQ's far NE Heights. 

Republican engineer Wayne Yevoli is his foe, running on an anti-crime platform and with the help of an outside PAC calling Hickey a "phony" and a friend of "Big Pharma."

One of their mailers declares:  

Martin Hickey claims to be a doctor in slick TV ads and mailers. In reality, he has spent the last thirty years as a hospital and insurance executive. 

Hickey's campaign answers that Yevoli is an anti-abortion zealot and an unabashed backer of MAGA.

The race popped up on the radar when recent insider polling showed Hickey below 50 percent---getting 48 to Yevoli's 43. 

That conceivably puts the race in play with Hickey still having a clear edge, but it was only four years ago that Hickey took over the seat from longtime GOP Senator Bill Payne.

An ace in the hole for Hickey, a former CEO and Chief Medical Officer for Lovelace Health Systems, is the Democratic performance of the district which is 53 percent. 

Hickey is working furiously to bring himself up to that level, repeatedly mailing the district and cutting a digital TV ad touting his 46 years as a medical doctor. 

The other medial doctor in the Senate is Republican Greg Schmedes who is not seeking re-election. 

ATTACK PAC

The most strident attacks on Hickey are coming from the Our Values PAC financed mainly by oil money, including oil giant Chevron and longtime GOP activist and Roswell oil magnate Mark Murphy. 

They cite Senate Bill 135 in particular as a reason for dumping the doctor. The measure passed the Senate 38-2 and was signed by the Governor. Hickey and GOP Senator Mark Moores were the two no votes:  

SB 135 would ensure doctors can ask health insurers to cover medications without the patient having to first try a cheaper version, a strategy insurers use to save money called “step therapy.” The bill adds medications approved for treating substance use disorder, autoimmune disorders, behavioral health conditions and cancer to the list of drugs that cannot be subject to step therapy or prior authorization requirements. . .Hickey said he supported the bill but it could lead to more complications and drug-to-drug interactions. 

Thus the nickname "Heartless Hickey" coined by the PAC. 

Yevoli's baggage appears limited but with abortion and MAGA the Dems don't need a smoking gun.

Also, the ABQ Journal, very often Republican in their editorial endorsements, failed to endorse Yevoli and gave the nod to Hickey. 

Yevoli's background:

I am a Professional Engineer and own a small engineering firm in Albuquerque. I have over thirty-seven years of engineering and design experience, including design from conception through construction document preparation and observation My specific areas of expertise include heating and cooling systems.

Yevoli, who bills himself as a "political outsider," is a good fit for Republicans and independents in the district who are still settling in with Democrat Hickey.  

His fate in large part will depend on enthusiasm for Trump and Dems getting the blue flu and refusing the doctor's orders by not voting because of those negative hits.

The Dems are not taking any chances. The money race in the district has Hickey raising $272,000 (including a $24,000 personal loan) and Yevoli $115,000. But the Republican is getting that PAC support to help make up the difference.

We look forward to bringing you the results of this intense battle and all the others when we take to the microphones of KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com on Election Night for our wall-to-wall coverage.  

ABOUT THE PAC

Hamblen and Barncastle Salopek

The oil-backed Our Values PAC involved in a number of legislative races on behalf of GOP candidates has raised $577,000 for the cycle, spent $429,000 and at last report had $172,000 on hand for the closing weeks.

Besides Yevoli, other GOP hopefuls they have been aiding include Nicole Chavez in ABQ District 31 in the far NE Heights and Samntha Barncastle Salopek in Las Cruces in her race against Dem Senator Carrie Hamblen.

Hamblen is seeking a second four year term after defeating local Las Cruces Dem legend Mary Kay Papen four years ago in the Dem primary. Papen is now endorsing Republican Salopek in the District 38 race. 

Hamblen has deep-seated progressive support in her district which leans firmly D and she has brought home ample capital outlay to the area. But a consultant with the Our Values PAC said of Salopek, a 39 year old water and agriculture attorney:

We see Sam as a rising start in the Republican party. She's young, smart, comes from a well-known and respected ranching family and is raising her own family, including a daughter with special needs. She would be a great addition to a state Senate that sorely needs new Republican faces.

Apparently a lot of R's agree. Salopek has raised $140,000 and spent $108,000, according to her latest report. That makes this a serious challenge for Hamblen, despite the 60 percent Dem lean of the district. But there are plenty of conservative Dems in those numbers as Papen demonstrated. 

Hamblen has raised $115,000 and spent $23,000 with over $90,000 left to close out the race.

The candidates discuss their views on the issues here. 

The Las Cruces Bulletin headlined their profile of the race: 

Hamblen's reelection bid faces stiff challenge from Barncastle Salopek

Hamblen vs. Salopek--another race for state political aficionados to keep their eye on come Election Night,

DEBATE VID

KOB-TV has now posted video of the Sunday morning US Senate debate between Sen. Heinrich and Nella Domenici held at ABQ's Congregation Albert and broadcast live. That video is here.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In an early draft Monday we had Senator John Pinto among those greeting VP Dem nominee Tim Walz at the Gallup airport Saturday. Sen. Pinto passed away in 2019. His granddaughter, Shannon Pinto, was elected to his seat and it was she who greeted Walz. Santa Fe reader Stuart Bluestone was among our readers who had some fun with the error:

Joe, I know Day of the Dead celebrations are drawing near, but I doubt even my old friend Sen. John Pinto was able to greet Gov. Walz at his stop in Gallup. 

Sen. Pinto lived to 94. 

Former ABQ GOP state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones comes with the news that former ABQ GOP westside state Rep. Tom Anderson (2003-2015) has died at 91. No other details were immediately available.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.