ABQ GOP Mayor RJ Berry is being hoisted on his own petard as he grapples with the expensive rebuild of the jam packed Paseo Del Norte/I-25 interchange. The project has become a symbol of his effectiveness or lack thereof and the outcome could have a major impact on his re-election fortunes next year.

Berry is trying to lay blame has been put off by the R's so they can apply pressure on the three Dems and get one of them to switch. Berry says we have to have the money now or federal funding would be placed in jeopardy. He doesn't want an election.

The problem here? It was Berry's own political malpractice that got us here in the first place. Last October voters defeated $25 million for the rebuild because Berry would not let them vote solely on Paseo. He insisted that the ballot measure be paired with one for $25 million for a controversial and unpopular "sportsplex." Berry's bonds were defeated in a landslide not necessarily because voters did not want the Paseo project but because of the duplicity of forcing them to vote on the mayor's dreaded pet project.

Here's a simple and direct explanation of exactly what happened from one our Alligators ensconced at City Hall:

 In June of last year an amendment to the budget was introduced that would have put $50 million on the ballot for Paseo. All five Republicans voted against the amendment. All four Democrats voted in favor. The five Republicans instead supported giving the mayor $25 million for a sportsplex and $25 million for Paseo. In other words, the Republicans thought "The Plan" was more important than Paseo, The Republicans not only cut $25 million from Paseo, but they tied the sportsplex to Paseo. The voters shot both down. Almost nobody knows this happened. The Democrats will push the Republican vote against Paseo at the special meeting that will be held Monday.  Mayor Berry needs to take responsibility for Paseo not passing on Monday because he tied Paseo to his sportsplex.

UP TO HIS CHIN

This picture of a billboard (taken by the ABQ Journal) that popped up this week was paid for by a group of business people who wish to remain anonymous, according to the Journal. What are they afraid of? And does the money in any way violate city campaign laws? Just asking.

 Berry was up to his chin in trouble after Paseo was rejected at the ballot box last October. He scurried and managed to get the Legislature to approve $30 million in Paseo funding. But now he is saying the people don't need to vote on the city bonds needed to complete the financing. That's a complete turnaround from his position last year and one that he doesn't seem to want to own up to. Here's the money quote:

Berry said you can always “do your hindsight 20/20 stuff” when it comes to last year’s decisions, but what’s important this month is quick action. “We need money now,” he said.

"Hindsight 20/20 stuff," Mr. Mayor? Well, that "hindsight stuff" represents the ability to govern and lead. In the case of Paseo the 11th floor failed last year. Elections, as they say, have consequences. You can blame the three council Democrats for being partisan and trying to sink Berry's ship by not getting aboard now, but it was they who last year voted to put Paseo on the ballot as a stand alone item. Even Republican Councilor Brad Winter now says he regrets going along with Berry's ballot manipulation.

So should the people get to vote on Paseo as they do on most major road projects of this size? Berry has placed himself in the unenviable position of arguing that the voice of the people should not be heard, even as he argues those same voters should flood the email boxes of the three dissenting councilors. His argument that the public vote must be bypassed or else federal funding will be jeopardized is tenous and easily deflected by the record of past federal funding. Councilor O'Malley points out the funds in question can be applied for every six months. She furter notes that Bernalillo County is helping to fund Paseo and is doing so by asking for bonds to be approved by voters.

Those three councilors Berry is chastising and trying to demonize may or may not be remembered next year if the Paseo rebuild appears stalled, but for sure Mayor Berry's role will be remembered, recounted and campaigned on. He could admit his 2012 election mistake and support another public vote and help get the measure approved and move on.

The Paseo rebuild is far from the public emergency the city fathers foresaw when requiring a council super majority to bypass the voters. It's unfortunate that in his frustration Mayor Berry has lost the patience that seemed to be part of his political character and unleashed his attack dogs. They will put on a good show at the special Monday meeting over Paseo, packing the room and filling it with rabid cries for immediate action. But when all is said and done, this project is going to be decided calmly and deliberately at the ballot box--not by an impromptu partisan mob.

JOHNNY COME LATELY?

Mayor Berry isn't the only politico having trouble owning up to past moves. Take the case of GOP state House candidate Johnny Luevano. He was confronted by TV news cameras about his residency in the west side district he seeks to represent. Here's the exchange:

News 13 asked if Luevano was living in his house by March 6 like the law requires and if he technically qualifies as a District 16 resident. Luevano would not answer yes or no.

"This is what I say. I'm not a politician. I'm not going to play this game," said Luevano. "I'm getting into this race to talk about the issues and put forward solutions."  

The district is represented by Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas who is a heavy favorite for re-election in the Dem heavy area. But now he has some nice ammo for a mail piece to keep Luevano, a retired Marine Corps veteran, from making a move.

CAMPUS CONTROVERSY

Enough seems to be enough for a number of students at the University of New Mexico. A lousy economy and ever rising costs
will have them protesting a proposed $77 student fee increase and 3 percent tuition increase. A protest is slated for the Student Union Building Atrium today at noon today. Katie Richardson, president of the UNM graduate students, emails us this missive:

...The total fee increase would come to 20% or $93.71 per student, when Governor Martinez and the state budget implements a 5% maximum on tuition increases. The regents' suggested fee increase of $77 would go entirely to fund athletics and the libraries. Regent Koch gave a lengthy defense of the ski team, saying that if fees weren't raised for athletics, small, successful teams would be cut. Students whole-heartedly support these small teams, but we can't stomach paying a dime more than we already do in athletics fees ($81.75 per student) when the so-called “revenue generating” teams, basketball and football, have indebted the athletics department more than a million dollars. 

UNM libraries are ranked 94th out of 115 member libraries of the Association of Research Libraries, so students applaud the sudden administrative interest in supporting the central hub of learning and research at UNM. But, library costs should be covered institutionally, either through research funds or through state appropriations and tuition, not fees. Ultimately, students believe that this suggested 20% fee increase is arbitrary and makes an end-run around the governor's 5% limit on tuition increases, especially when library and athletics costs are also line items in the tuition column of the budget, not just the fees column.

OBAMA IN NEW MEXICO 
(Alligator photo from Maljamar)
One of our Alligators was on hand Wednesday as President Obama spoke to a gathering in out of the way Maljamar in oil country in SE NM. (Yes, those Gators are everywhere). The remote setting, some 300 miles SE of ABQ, reminded us of that Dwight Yoakum song, "A Thousand Miles from Nowhere."

Obama stressed that there is plenty of oil and gas drilling going on federal lands like those he visited, but that gasoline prices are being pushed up by world demand.

His New Mexico trip began around 5:30 p.m. when he landed in Roswell. It captured good coverage on the 6 p.m. newscasts of the ABQ network affiliates--something his political team was conscious of as they work to nail down the state's five electoral votes in the November election.

The energy story is double-edged for our state. High oil prices mean lots of jobs and gobs of royalty money flowing into the state treasury. On the other hand, high gas prices are especially painful here where so many low-income families reside.

And now for the answer to  the question a lot of New Mexicans want to know today: What does "Maljamar" mean? The AP says:

According to the menu at Linda’s Grill, “William Mitchell, president of Maljamar Oil & Gas Company, which brought the first oil well to southeastern New Mexico in 1926, reportedly named the town for his three children, Malcolm, Janet and Margaret.”

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Readers are starting to send us the media of Campaign '13. Here's one of Mayor Berry's first entries.

Judging from that slogan "Steady, Responsible Leadership," Berry has been doing some focus group testing.

His finance report shows he recently conducted a $20,000 poll.

It will be up to Dem Pete Dinelli to turn that slogan around on the mayor who has had high polling numbers throughout his four year tenure.

Can Dinelli get voters to read "steady" as "stagnant?" After all ABQ is just emerging from years of  its worst jobs recession in modern history, its workforce has shrunk and the jobs being created are mostly of the low-paying variety. Commercial real estate remains in a deep funk.

As for "responsible." it will be up to Dinelli (and Republican challenger Paul Heh) to turn that into "irresponsible" leadership--as in the numerous fatal police shootings under Berry's watch. They have begun to cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars and prompted the US Justice Department to launch a civil rights investigation into the APD.

FIRST PUNCHES THROWN

Mayor Berry is absorbing his first serious punches of the campaign. A committee composed of ABQ police and firefighters comes with a TV ad claiming Berry has failed to "fully fund" public safety as the shifts city funds to "boutique projects" that are part of his "ABQ: The Plan."

The 30 second spot is titled "Failed" and says: "Mayor Berry: You have failed to keep us safe."

In the past three years the number of APD officers has dropped 15%.

The ad is airing on broadcast TV and cable. The committee says so far it has raised about $40,000. A spokesman says it will air various spots questioning Berry's public safety record through the October 8 election.

MONEY TALK

Berry is reporting about $430,000 in cash on hand as we begin the six week sprint to Election Day October 8. Dinelli has about $330,000. That's not a big difference, but Berry has had a healthy lead as witnessed by his refusal so far to go negative on Dinelli or grant him many debates.

While Dems are gladdened that the money difference between the duo is not canyonesque, Berry has the ability to raise money quickly should Dinelli start breathing down his neck. Dinelli opted for public financing and can't raise any more cash. Heh has not qualified for public financing nor raised serious private money.

LOSING PAPEN

The bitter battle over funding behavioral health in the state is costing Governor Martinez one of her most important Democratic allies--at least for now. State Senate President Pro Tem Mary Kay Papen, part of the conservative coalition that generally supports Martinez, is livid over the way Susana has shut down providers here and brought in Arizona firms to take over.

Here's her take:

(Human Services) Secretary Squier can and should immediately restore Medicaid funding to the providers and end the crisis that she created, while instituting an extremely strict review process of every reimbursement claim submitted by behavioral health care providers. This would ensure that behavioral health services continue to be provided to the state's most fragile citizens and that no Medicaid reimbursement claims are approved unless they are completely in order. Such a prepayment review is not unusual and should be standard practice.

Wall-leaners wonder if Mary Kay will still be upset with the Guv when the Legislature convenes in January for its final session before the '14 election.

THE MAES WAY

We need to give New Mexico's drought more attention and seek out ideas---like this one from Santa Fe lobbyist and former state Senator Roman Maes:

New Mexicans are keenly aware of our water problem. We can criticize all we want but we now need solutions. Our congressional delegation should unite with other Southwestern congressional members and propose water solutions. As we created the National Highway System, we can create a national water system. If we can pump oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico, why not pump water from areas that are flooding to areas that are in drought? A national canal and strategic water storage system would solve many of the economic problems of the US--for sure in New Mexico and the Southwest United States. According to the NASA report, our dry weather pattern is to continue for many years into the future. President Obama should visit our drought stricken states and move forward with a progressive plan.

Well said, Roman. In so many areas New Mexico needs to start investing and building instead of abiding by a fiscal austerity that has so many playing ostrich.

STEVE AND HARRY

Teague & Pearce

Well, look at this one. That's former southern Dem Congressman Harry Teague chatting it up with GOP Congressman Steve Pearce--the man who defeated Teague in 2010 after Teague served just one term in the US House.

Harry is looking trim and Steve still doesn't look his 66 years.

We reported last week that the national Dems are planning on targeting Pearce in 2014 and that the likely Dem candidate is former Eddy County Commissioner Roxanne Lara.

Both Teague and Pearce have been in the oil business in Lea County.

THE BOTTOM LINES

ABQ Judge Alan Malott comes with the quote of the day as he comes out against the effort to limit the scope of ABQ's new minimum wage law:

I grew up in the restaurant business. My parents always paid their people more than minimum wage because they believed “If you pay peanuts, you will get monkeys.

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Looking to impede any surge to RJ Berry among ABQ's sizable Republican voting block, Mayor Marty Chavez is on the offensive, attacking Berry on several fronts, the most prominent being a mailer that questions Berry's honesty in how he portrays himself as a businessman.

The Chavez campaign got clever with their hit. They never mention their main point--that it is Berry's wife--Maria Medina--who is listed as sole owner of the family's Cumbre Construction and that it is her Hispanic heritage that makes possible the firm qualifying as a minority owned business and garnering millions in government contracts.

In fact, the hit piece never mentions Cumbre Construction. What the campaign does do is dig up a Public Regulation Commission record listing Berry, an ABQ state House representative, as owner of RJ Berry Enterprises, Inc. a company that has been inactive for ten years.

"...A construction company that hasn't built anything in over 10 years--No Sales, No Income, No employees, No Office...How can Berry claim to be a successful business owner when his business isn't doing any business?" Blasts the hit piece which can be fully viewed here.

On the campaign trail Berry cites Cumbre Construction as his main business activity. He does not mention the inactive company cited by Chavez. Berry describes Cumbre as "family owned." So is the candidate hiding behind his wife's skirts and acting with duplicity to qualify for big contracts as Chavez infers? His campaign was not commenting on Sunday, perhaps waiting to see if the hit piece gets any legs in the mainstream media.

On Feb. 24 of this year we first reported on how the Berry business was organized.

From 2000 to 2007 Berry's construction company was awarded $48 million in Defense Department contracts for work at military bases including Kirtland, Holloman and Cannon. For example, in 2003, the company received $14 million for defense work; in 2006, $7 million. However, in 2007, that amount shriveled to $607,000. The business is classified as "Hispanic American" owned. The firm was recently ranked #465 on Hipsanic Magazine's list of the 500 largest US Hispanic owned companies.

THE STRATEGY ROOM
Chavez
Republican support for Chavez has been key in the mayor's three wins. Berry's campaign strategy seems focused on Republicans--getting them to vote in a block and getting Chavez below 40%, setting up a November run-off election between the two top vote-getters. Chavez's campaign says his mailer attacking Berry's business credentials was sent solely to Republican households.

Over the years, city Republicans have broken late in the cycle and usually for one of their own, but Chavez has always held on to his share. The ABQ Journal is in the field this week and will release a mayoral poll of Chavez, Berry and Dem Richard Romero this Sunday.

MORE HITS

Chavez, saving the bulk of his $328,000 in public financing for a final stretch assault, is also working Berry over in a new radio spot. It featured Joey Sigala, president of the ABQ police Officers Association, who tackles Berry for saying that, under Chavez ABQ has become a "sanctuary city."

"Tel the Truth, RJ...You're misleading us on purpose...ABQ is not a sanctuary city..." smacks Sigala. APOA has endorsed Chavez.

ROMANCING THE HEIGHTS

Even as Chavez was warning R's in the ABQ NE Heights about Berry, he was taking a positive tack in trying to win their votes. He came with a mailer that said:

"Mayor Chavez has always stood up for the residents of the Northeast Heights and fought to make our neighborhoods safe and a great part of ABQ to live in!"

Again, the name of the game for Chavez is to prevent a waterfall defection of his R supporters to the Berry camp, increasing the odds of a dreaded run-off election.

TAX POLL UPDATE

That polling passed on to us last week gauging ABQ voter support for renewing the quarter cent tax for transit and road projects got sloppy in the translation. Approval in the survey of registered voters sponsored by a group supporting the tax was not running at 65%, but at 42%. Against was at 33%, with 25% undecided.

That's a different picture than first painted, but the salient point is that the tax, first approved for 10 years in 1999, is passing. Tonight the ABQ City Council will take up a resolution that would make clear that the tax, if renewed, would be for another ten year period and not be permanent. There has been no paid media opposing the tax and if none of significance surfaces, we expect the early polling showing it winning to play out on Election Night.

DI BY THE NUMBERS

There is an air of inevitability about Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish securing the 2010 Democrat gubernatorial nomination, but not an air of invincibility. That take was reinforced over the weekend as the ABQ Journal came with its first poll of Denish in the 2010 cycle, pegging her statewide approval rating at 52%, but pointedly revealed that 28% of the state's voters either can't identify her or don't know enough about her to have an opinion.

It was the first nonpartisan public poling of Denish, 60, released since this Web site site--NM Politics With Joe Monahan--commissioned a professional poll of Denish in the state's two largest counties--Bernalillo and Dona Ana in October of 2008. It struck us that a year ago in our poll Denish's approval rating in big Bernalillo stood at 50.4% and 30% of the votes had no opinion of her. In other words, not much appears to have changed for Denish in building name ID in the past year, even as she has frenetically campaigned from Aztec to Anthony. Getting press and TV time remains the province of the state's #1--not #2-- and that's what ultimately moves the numbers--one way or another.

THE TIE THAT BINDS
Di & Bill
That her approval rating mimics Big Bill's--he comes in at 51% in the Sept. 8 thru 10 poll--shows how closely voter perceptions of her remain tied to the performance of the Governor. She has work to do to carve out her own political identity before the Republicans do the job for her. But how far does Di need to stray? Her standing above the crucial 50% mark will likely keep her pace to separate herself from Richardson on a cautious course. She is also polling well with Hispanics, the nominating constituency of the Democratic party and one that has given her headaches in the past. She has to be heartened by that as she looks over her shoulder at any surprise Hispanic nominating challenge.

CHALLENGE OR NOT?

There is still talk of that Hispanic challenge of Denish for the Dem nod, but not with much urgency. State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez has not helped himself with his Hamlet-like approach to the question. Insiders now say his best hope would be to put up his personal money--he's a successful attorney--to make the challenge. But there seems little enthusiasm for it within the party. Di's over 50% approval rating is going to make any opposition that more difficult and politically questionable. The question will linger until the end of the year.

REPUBLICAN HOPES

Denish's approval rating signals to the R's that they will need a strong candidate to take her out. They will argue that Denish isn't going much above the 52% approval mark, that the 30% of the electorate undecided about her would likely split like those who have already formed an opinion. That means they need only drag her down a handful of points to get in contention. But they will need a candidate who appeals to the broad center to do it and that could well lead back to talk of getting ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson in the race. She is the candidate most feared by the Denish camp, which is fervently praying that the R's come with a candidate similar to that of John Dendahl who led the GOP disaster of 2006 when Richardson scored 69% against him--the largest Guv win in state history.

Denish has nearly $2 million in cash on hand. If she avoids a primary battle, as seems likely, most of that money will be available for the general election contest. It will be very expensive for any of the unknown GOP challengers to get known. The well-known Wilson could raise money quickly, if not in sums equal to Denish.

BILL'S COMEBACK

And the adventure continues for Bill Richardson. The guy performs worst when he is disengaged or bored, but give him something to fight for and look out. So it is with his latest climb back up the approval ratings ladder. And it is a climb. Remember, the Journal has not been polling for the past year, but SurveyUSA has and had the Guv reaching a low point of 42% earlier this year as the pay-to- play investigation dominated the headlines. That scandal forced Bill to withdraw his nomination to become Obama's Commerce Secretary.

(SurveyUSA also came with a late August poll that flew under our radar. It showed Bill getting 55% approval. Part of the survey was taken just as the news was being released that Richardson and his top aides would not face indictments in the CDR scandal.)

In the aftermath of his national humiliation the Guv got angry and depressed. Then he did what he does best--he started campaigning. A trip to Rome to see the Pope and statewide travel to promote the federal stimulus money were among the moves that made the 51% approval possible. Sure, that's down from his high point in the low 60's, but in this economic and political climate and after being written off for dead, it can be fairly labeled a political triumph. Pollster Brian Sanderoff noted that for any New Mexico governor to be above 50% after serving seven years in office is notable. No argument here.

LOOKING AHEAD

The White House will now see that Richardson, whose name again is surfacing for a possible high-level appointment like envoy to Cuba, is back from the semi-dead. They will also see that while Denish is positioned, she is not yet a shoo-in to win this state that Obama wants in his column in 2012. That could make the political advisers think more about a scenario for appointing Richardson to a diplomatic post while he is still governor. That in turn would make Denish governor and put to rest the worry about whether she has a glass jaw.

The incumbency, even in troubled times such as these, would provide Di with a tremendous advantage going forward, especially against the current field of unknown GOP challengers. Surely, the shake-up scenario must look to the national Dem power brokers like a juicy peach ready to be picked. But anything involving Richardson comes with intrigue. That's why it's always interesting.

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Martinez vs. Weh
The 2010 campaign for the not invaluable Republican gubernatorial nomination switched to full combat mode Monday with Susana Martinez firing the first shot. Return fire is expected at any moment from retired Marine Corps Reserve Colonel Allen Weh.

Darren White
Darren White, with the permission of the new mayor and the apparent acquiescence of the city's new chief administrative officer, has turned himself into what some ABQ City Hall insiders last night were calling a "Superchief."

That reaction came when White went before the ABQ City Council to be confirmed as Mayor Berry's public safety director and was asked point blank by Councilor Debbie O'Malley whether he was the "boss" of ABQ Police Chief Ray Schultz. White, the former Bernalillo County sheriff, gave a one word response: "Yes."

And the eyebrows arched some more when White added that he does not answer to new Chief Administrative Officer David Campbell. White said he reports "directly" to the mayor.

Boss of the APD chief? Doesn't report to the CAO as all other department directors do and as all past public safety directors have? That is a complete redefinition of the powers of the post. The mayor's public safety directors previously exercised oversight over the police, fire and emergency operations departments, but day-to-day decisions came from the individual chiefs and the public safety director had no veto power over a chief's judgment.

But White, the 2008 GOP nominee for the ABQ US House seat, (He's back, Martin) commands a following in the local Republican Party which was responsible in a big way for bringing Berry to this particular party. David Campbell could not compete with that--at least not right away.

Councilors did not question White's assumption of added powers. They've given him the rope and now they will see what he does with it. He was approved 8 to 1, with Councilor Rey Garduno casting the dissenting vote.

Police Chief Ray Schultz, already derided by critics in the police department's rank and file as a toady to the 11th floor and former Mayor Chavez, is sure to take some more heat by ceding his power to White. But Schultz never has seemed much interested in leading.

THE COUP OF CAMPBELL

As for Campbell, Alligators and wall-leaners will be watching closely how he and White operate together. The public safety director is basically saying he is a co-equal with Campbell, even though the City Charter clearly vests authority over all departments ultimately with the CAO. Will Campbell chafe under the new arrangement or just laugh all the way to the bank with his freshly minted $159,000 annual pay? (Darren will pull down $125,000 a year, less than the $140,000 plus of Chief Schultz--his new underling.)

THE CAMPBELL VOTE

It did not appear Berry worked very hard to change the votes of three Republican councilors who have opposed from the start the appointment of Democrat Campbell as CAO. As expected, Councilors Winter, Cook and Lewis voted against the land-use attorney who was confirmed on a 6 to 3 vote. The foes claimed he had too many potential conflicts-of-interest because he practiced law for clients before city government.

The question now is whether that vote is a trend or the end. Berry walks away with a victory that is wishy-washy, but he got his man and now will see if going forward the trio of his fellow R's are going to be in his corner or not.

POWER CHECKED

While White was quick to create new authority for himself, the limitations of his power and that of Berry's was also quick to surface. Councilor Ken Sanchez read aloud the current city law enforcement policy toward undocumented residents and asked White if that policy will be followed by the new administration. Despite that campaign TV spot Berry cut hammering Mayor Chavez for creating a a "Sanctuary City" for illegals, White told Sanchez the administration would be following the current policy.

So much for election rhetoric, and in this case, for the best.

PRESIDENT SANCHEZ

The Alligators who were pegging Ken Sanchez as the new council president a couple of weeks ago saw their predictions borne out Monday night. Sanchez was unanimously named president of the nine member panel for the coming year. He is the councilor perhaps most steeped in the city's financial affairs. With the city facing a shortfall for the current budget year of up to $20 million or more, he was a natural for the presidency.

Ken got into the spirit of things when he asked Campbell to reduce his $159,000 a year salary. The silence, as they say, was deafening. Campbell said nary a word in response.

Dem Sanchez is now serving his second four year term. GOP Councilor Trudy Jones was named council VP.

THE FIRST TIME

It was Mayor Berry's first meeting with the new council and he appeared before them with greetings in the early going, but did not stay around to watch the confirmation hearings of Campbell or White. The debate over those two quickly surfaced the natural tensions between the council and mayor. And there will be more tension because the two branches of government will next be meeting over whose sacred cows will bleed the most to balance the city's books.

THE DEAD TREE BEAT

What of the newspaper biz in ABQ? We just received the latest circulation figures and there are no surprises. Circulation continues the secular decline it has been on for most of the decade. Audit Bureau of Circulation figures put ABQ Journal daily circulation at 94,066 for the six month period ending September 30. To give you some perspective, in 2005, the morning paper's circulation was at 108,177. That's a decline of 13 percent.

For the all-important Sunday edition--which insiders say generates 40 percent of the paper's profits--we're told circulation also declined. It was at 150, 787 in 2005. The last numbers we saw saw had it at around 130,000, a decline of about 14 percent over the four years. (If you have the Sunday circ numbers for the period ending Sep. 30 email them in.)

Earlier this year the Journal, citing a decline in ad revenue, ceased home delivery and rack sales in 30 communities, mainly in southern NM. The Journal Publishing Co. has also gone through a major round of layoffs.

We've said before that we could see the newspaper going to a six day a week publication schedule and publishing one day exclusively on the Web in order to save money. Some papers are already doing that.

HEADLINE FOR HARRY
Rep. Teague
Here's just the kind of headline southern NM Dem Congressman Harry Teague is going to need as he defends his seat from Republican Steve Pearce. It's from the editorial pages of the Las Cruces the Sun-News:

Our view: Teague basks in success of PTSD bill

Teague, 60, is on every national hit list you can think of as a prime Republican target for 2010. If he makes it next year, the seat will probably be his for as long as he wants.

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ABQ Mayor-elect Richard "RJ" Berry
He came to Albuquerque from Nebraska in the early 80's to run track at the University of New Mexico and Tuesday night he showed the state he also knows how to run around the political oval. Republican State Representative Richard "RJ" Berry, 46, captured the mayor's office by several lengths, collecting 43.82 percent of the vote in a three way race and easily eclipsing the 40 percent mark necessary to avoid a runoff election. He will be the first GOP mayor of the state's largest city since Harry Kinney left office in 1985 and he will govern with a new Republican majority--five to four--on the nine member city council.

(Complete election results here. ABQ Journal here. NMI here. TV here and here. Pollster Sanderoff analysis here.)

The affable construction company executive sent a message early in the evening by immediately going over 40 percent when over 10,000 early votes were released just after the polls closed at 7 p.m. He hardly looked back, dipping briefly below the magic number a time or two as downtown and Valley Democratic precincts posted results, but he went quickly back above 40 percent and stayed there. It was a firm rejection of three term incumbent Martin Chavez, 57, who pushed the envelope when he went to court and won the right to seek a third term in a row, but nevertheless will henceforth be regarded as one of the city's major historical figures.

But it was Berry making all the history Election Night, taking advantage of a bitter split in the city's majority Democratic party and coasting to a win built on rock-solid wins in ABQ's heavy GOP NE Heights precincts, surpassing Chavez in his political birthplace on the city's Westside and even raiding Democratic strongholds in the city's center where turned off Dems stayed home in droves or even voted for Berry.

RACE ANALYSIS

Unofficial results put turnout at about 83,000 or 25 percent of the registered voters, below the nearly 87,000 who cast ballots in 2005. That gave Berry a boost as reliable R voters made up a larger percentage of the total vote than normal.

Chavez could only manage 35.02 percent for his swan song performance. Fellow Dem Richard Romero sank to 20.98 percent. Between them they had a majority of the vote, but the Dems were left out in the cold. They were denied a runoff between Republican Berry and one of their own who they were certain could carry the day in a one-on-one race.

The race turned on characteristics unique to ABQ, said my veteran political analysts on our KANW 89.1 FM Election Night broadcast. The key one being "Chavez fatigue." Republican State Rep. Larry Larranaga said the Berry win carried no significance for the party beyond the state, but he and former Bernalillo County GOP executive director Bob Cornelius pointed out that Berry will be the highest ranking Republican in the state and one with access to its major media market. Democrat Lenton Malry analyzed that Berry, if he moves to the center, could expand the R's narrow base similar to the way Pete Domenici did back in the day.

But for Berry, it is first things first. Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca told our radio audience that Berry will tread cautiously in forming a new government, saying RJ will be bombarded with resumes and decisions about his transition team in the weeks ahead. Berry will be inaugurated into office December 1. No immediate names surfaced as to who might be his chief administrative officer--his most important appointment.

THE SPEECH

The mayor-elect was terse in his victory speech, not given until nearly 11 p.m. as he awaited late returns (Complete video here). He seemed conscious that while nearly 44 percent of the vote is a strong showing in a three way race, it still falls well short of a majority. He told the crowd at the Sheraton Uptown Hotel:

I look forward to being a mayor of all of Albuquerque. I look for the opportunity to work with each and every council person and move all of our nine council districts forward.

Berry, who ran on a tough on crime platform and who used the emotional "sanctuary city" wedge issue to unite his conservative base, did not venture further into policy or put out any singular message. He appeared pleased, but not exuberant in his first appearance as mayor-elect. He is not yet familiar with the inner workings of city government and will use the next two months to get up to speed.

MARTY FAREWELL

Mayor Chavez went out with grace, offering a smooth transition to Berry and saying he will have lunch today with the mayor-to-be. He did not offer any speculation on why he was defeated in his quest for an unprecedented fourth term. (He served his first from '93 to '97). A top aide to Chavez said he told the mayor on Monday, that based on tracking polls, it appeared there would be no run-off and that he would lose outright to Berry. The aide said Chavez did not buy into the prediction, continuing to believe that he would come in second, but keep Berry below 40 percent.

Chavez, an attorney, told a media gaggle (video here) and our radio audience he will now look to improve his personal finances and spend more time with his two children.

Mayor Marty, as he had come to be known, appeared to be on his way to yet another victory for most of the year, but it turned out he had a glass jaw and succumbed to attacks on the right from Berry and on the left from Romero. The late September ABQ Journal poll showing him at 26 percent and lagging Berry by five points turned out to be the beginning of the end, even though he fought valiantly to finish nine points above that low-water mark, mounting a counteroffensive that proved too little too late.

THE POWER AND THE MONEY

Former NM Dem Party Chairman John Wertheim told the radio audience the city's new public financing law had the unintended consequence of helping Berry. He said a lack of campaign ads and overall buzz hurt Democratic turnout. Republican voters are more reliable when it comes to voting and easier to turn out. Dems need to be prodded and you need money to prod them, he analyzed.

The three candidates all accepted public financing and spending was capped at $328,000 each. Dem Richard Romero opted not to air TV ads and instead used his money mainly for attack mail. Berry, however, made a noticeable TV buy and continuously hammered home one crime spot in the final week. Chavez came with two ads, but he could not heal the initial wounds caused by the negative drumbeat initiated weeks earlier.

BERRY'S SEAT

Berry will resign his legislative seat before he takes office Dec. 1. The mayor's job is a full-time post and you can't hold both. His replacement would be named by the Bernalillo County Commission, not the Governor, because his district lies all within one county. The appointed term will run through 2010. There is a special session of the Legislature Oct. 17. Berry might be expected to attend that session, but official word is awaited. Who will replace him? And will there be competition among R's to get the nod?

COUNCIL SWITCH

Chavez wasn't the only incumbent to bite the dust Tuesday. In District 5 on the city's Westside, two term Democratic City Councilor Michael Cadigan fell to businessman and pastor Dan Lewis.

Republican Lewis ran a heavy negative mail campaign against the incumbent, backed up by intensive door-to-door campaigning. He also had help from the city and state GOP organizations. His 56 percent victory means there will now be a majority of five Republicans on the nine member council. We'll have to check the record books to see when that last happened.

That's significant because Berry will have a veto-proof council. It takes six votes to override a mayoral veto, and even though ex-Mayor Baca pointed out the tool is only occasionally used, it is still a valuable one for any chief executive.

IKE ICES ALAN
Benton
Another longtime ABQ politico saw his political career ended Tuesday night. Bernalillo County Commissioner Alan Armijo, term-limited on the commission and hoping to get back on the city council on which he once served, fell to incumbent Democratic City Councilor Ike Benton. Benton dispatched Armijo and earned a second four year term by garnering 59 percent of the vote. The district is heavy Hispanic, but Benton won it four years ago, made his bones with the voters and Tuesday they judged him on the job he had done, not ethnicity.

GOP City Councilor Dan Harris had token opposition and was handily re-elected as he defended his far NE Heights seat. He will be a key swing vote on the council, Financial planner Mike Cook takes the council seat held by fellow R Sally Mayer who decided not to seek-re-election.

NO PREDICTIONS EVER

Wouldn't you know it, we swore off predicting races with candidates, but stuck our neck out Monday on our pre-game radio show and said that a proposal to get city councilors a pay raise would get defeated. After all, such proposals always are rejected. Turns out almost always. The measure to form an independent salary commission which is likely to lead to a pay raise for the councilors who currently make 10 percent of the mayor's salary, made it through with 53 percent of the vote. The Journal poll said it was doomed. Go figure. The other nine amendments to the city charter were also approved by voters.

As expected, the proposal to renew a quarter cent tax for transit won handily (58 percent) and all the bond issues also passed. There may have been an anti-incumbent sentiment Tuesday, but not an anti-tax sentiment.

IT WILL BE DIFFERENT

Mayor-elect Berry wins high praise from those who have worked with him. They say he is keen on financial issues and has a laid-back personality which should serve him well in the often contentious pond that is city politics. He comes to the office at a time of severe economic restrictions. In many ways, he and the council will be caretakers of what we have, not what we will build. His business sense should be helpful in making the cuts to government here that seem inevitable.

A Mayor Berry will need to resist pressure from conservatives to wade into social matters like school prayer, abortion and gay marriage and, yes, the sanctuary city issue over illegal immigrants. That is a red flag for many in the Hispanic community. Berry's wife, Maria, (Medina) is a native Hispanic who was on stage with her husband last night. The couple represent the diversity the city prizes and that was on full display among ABQ residents who went to the polls Tuesday.

RJ Berry won with 44 percent of the vote, but 100 percent of ABQ can agree with him that this is a "wonderful city" and wish him well in keeping it that way.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We don't call it "New Mexico's Best Political Broadcast" for nothing. Outstanding work from my panel of experts on KANW nailed the mayor's race and the key trends early. Our early vote reporters--coordinated by Steve Cabiedes and pollster Harry Pavlides kept the city informed and were spot on. Thanks to all who made our public radio broadcast possible--too many of you to mention here, but be assured we are deeply appreciative to you all. A final tip of the hat to our generous sponsors--DW Turner Public Relations, Coca-Cola, Dan Serrano and Sons and Ladera Golf and Banquet.

We finished up on the air after midnight and I am writing to you at 3:30 a.m. so we may be light around here for the next day or so.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

What happened to the red light cameras? In an interesting twist, what analysts thought would be a major driver of City Election '11 has been relegated to the back seat. Instead, it is the $25 million sportsplex proposal--not the cameras--that has turned out to be the hot button issue and is providing the emotional punch on this election eve.

Redflex, the company that operates the red light camera program, has pumped in over $140,000 to convince voters to allow them to keep snapping pics of red light runners at busy intersections. It has hardly raised an eyebrow even though that appears to be the most money spent on any issue or candidate in tomorrow's election.

Anti-red light fever went into remission some when the program was suspended for a time and resumed with fewer intersections monitored by the square shaped cameras that have an Orwellian feel.

The city is no longer making big money from the red light runners the cameras catch. GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis calls it the biggest scam" the city has ever seen.

The vote on the cameras is "advisory," meaning even if voters say they want the cameras taken down, the city council and Mayor would not have to comply.

With over $140,000 in campaign lit being dropped and the $25 million sportsplex bond sucking up most voter rage this cycle, will the once hyper-controversial cameras fly under the radar and get a green light?

HOW WE VOTED

We don't endorse candidates in this corner, but we do take a public stand on bond issues and other ballot issues for our city and state. We cast an early vote Friday afternoon at the busy Juan Tabo and Montgomery voting site.

We appreciate the effort behind Mayor Berry's "ABQ the Plan" but believe it was the victim of rushed thinking and political machinations. It should be sent back to the drawing board.

Our main objection is not the $25 million bond issue to rebuild Paseo Del Norte/I-25 or even the $25 million for the controversial sportsplex. It is the arrogance of the city fathers that forces us to vote on these bonds together when they are in no way connected.

We're adults out here, not children to be told they must eat their spinach to get their dessert. Voters deserve the opportunity to vote separately on bond issues of this magnitude but the administration and its council supporters have been too clever by half.

We also question the financial projections the $50 million in Berry Bonds rely on. The Mayor assumes a 3% increase in city gross receipts tax for the fiscal year that began July 1. But gross receipts tax collections have not risen to that level for the first two months. Not to say they won't, but these are hardly the plush times that merit a bond issue based on gross receipts instead of the traditional property tax.

We urge a "No" vote on Bond #12.

TEA PARTY: NO SPORTSPLEX

It's pretty late, but the ABQ Tea Party has finally made its stance known on Mayor Berry's controversial sportsplex bond--they are against it:

The Albuquerque Tea Party (ATP) stands for Fiscal Responsibility: ...The bond issue to fund the Paseo del Norte interchange and the sports complex does not meet this standard. A reasonable city council and mayor would have allowed the voters to approve or disapprove each proposal separately. Therefore, we recommend that voters reject the bond issue as notice to the governing officials of the City of Albuquerque that the citizens will not stand for this kind of disgraceful manipulation. The interchange project does need the full attention of city government, but our elected officials would rather play Russian Roulette with the voters: take it all or leave it!....

Earlier the conservative Rio Grande Foundation also came out against the sportsplex bond. The conservative groups find themselves aligned with the labor unions on this one. Labor is opposed to the Sportsplex/Paseo bonds because they don't like the idea of taking money out of the city's general fund to finance the bonds. They argue the money could go for city employee salaries and other operating expenses in a time when budgets have been cut back.

INSIDE PASEO

As for rebuilding Paseo, that $25 million in bond money, if approved, would need to await matching funds from the state and/or federal governments But the recent special session of the Legislature refused to appropriate $50 million for Paseo. We need more exacting leadership and better planning in what will ultimately be a rebuild costing over $300 million. Governor Martinez, Mayor Berry and other key policy makers need to sit down and come with something that resembles something more than a wing and a prayer. They need to build rural NM political support and also more fully involve the state's congressional delegation. We need a team effort not the current scatter shot approach that will keep traffic backed up and motorists fuming amid the gasoline fumes.

THE SPORTING LIFE

As for the sportsplex, the problem for the Mayor is timing. He has made some good arguments about how this facility could attract regional events that could spark tourism. This deep recession is not the time for the city to be taking this kind of risk or putting up this kind of cash for a nonessential project.

Where are the market studies backing up the Mayor's contention that a sportsplex would mean more tourism? He gives other cities as examples of where these sportsplexes have been successful, but there has been little concrete marketing info circulating during this campaign to assure us that this project doesn't represent a long-shot gamble.

On the $164 million in other bonds on the ballot, we were supportive--but not entirely. We voted "no" on the $11 million senior and community center bonds. The idea being that we should pause to catch our breath with these centers. But in the main these bonds are going to improve the city, put people to work and spark some badly needed economic activity.

JONES VS. PAYNE

The Alligators weren't kidding when they reported that the campaign of Trudy Jones was working mightily to spike turnout in her far ABQ NE Heights city council district. Stats compiled courtesy of political consultant Neri Holguin show a whopping 27 percent of the voters in Jones' District 8 cast early or absentee ballots (not counting Friday's early turnout).

Jones is being challenged by fellow Republican and former City Councilor Greg Payne. It has been an often vicious campaign, featuring Payne's rivalry with Jones political consultant Jay McCleskey who is putting well over $60,000 to work on behalf of Trudy. Conventional wisdom has it that a lower turnout would benefit Payne, thus the big get-out-the-vote drive by his rival.

With a big turnout and big money working against him, a win by Payne would now qualify as a major upset. No polling has been released on the race, but insiders say Jones has put out 11 mailers.

In city council District 4 in the NE Heights, which also features a competitive council race, early and absentee turnout is running at 19 percent of those eligible. In council District 1 on the city's west side it's as though there is hardly an election. Only 4% of eligible voters had cast early or absentee ballots through Thursday.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011

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