Tuesday, January 05, 2010Battle Of The Budget: Salary Cuts & Tax Hike Proposals Dominate Debate, Plus: UNM's PR Reprieve, And: Spacing Out In T Or C
Rep. Varela
 Viewed from the perspective of a severely battered private sector, the recommendation from the Legislative Finance Committee that all state employees take a two percent salary cut to help balance the budget isn't especially Draconian. After all, six percent of the state's non-government work force--or some 40,000 jobs--have gone by the wayside in the past two years alone. Still, is it fair that a $30,000 a year janitor take the same salary hit as a $90,000 state employee? What happened to the proposal to have the highly paid workers share more of the burden as the state wrestles with its epic fiscal woes? And how about a proposal that workers making less than $30,000 not be cut at all?The LFC budget for the year starting July 1, 2011 was carried on TV news by committee chair Lucky Varela (D-Santa Fe). It cuts spending by proposing those across-the-board salary cuts and eliminating about 1,000 positions, many of which are already vacant. It also calls for trimming the budget of the state's universities by four percent and cutting Medicaid, the health program for the poor, by two percent. But the LFC still leaves a $200 million deficit. Where will we get that money? Some R's say cut more spending. Governor Bill is saying a "temporary" tax increase and the LFC is leaving its options open. Over the weekend Richardson ruled out any increase in the personal income tax for the rich as well as any increase in the capital gains tax. He was immediately castigated for it by critics who say it appears the Governor is more concerned about his wealthy campaign donors than he is the average New Mexican. Richardson's unilateral dismissal of these tax proposals does seem to demand more explanation. He is calling the tax cuts for the wealthy economic development tools, but recently said the major economic development of his administration was the development of a Rio Rancho Hewlett-Packard call center where only half the jobs will pay $40,000 a year. Where are the $200,000 salaries the '03 cut was supposed to lure here? The administration and its allies have yet to produce any documentation that the rollback of the top income tax rate directly resulted in any meaningful economic activity. Meanwhile, news reports continue to site the inequitable taxation rates in the state, with the middle classes shouldering a disproportionate share compared to the wealthy. FILLING THE HOLE  A modest increase in the top state tax rate, eliminating too generous tax credits to promote various economic activities--some ambiguous--and a vigorous appraisal of state contracts--especially the giant ones going to various law firms--would raise barrels full of revenue. But these proposals--as direct and as reasonable as they may seem--are orphans in Santa Fe. They might not raise $200 million, but they would make for a good start.The bottom line on all of this is this: Unreasonably low tax rates for the rich, tax credits for businesses with strong lobbies and the platoon of law firms with close ties to legislators has lawmakers looking the other way, and looking covetously at the wallets of the average Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico. PSYCHOLOGY TODAY As much as everyone dreads the 30 day legislative session that begins January 19, the release of the LFC budget proposal Monday and the one to come today from Big Bill, seems to make it more tolerable. At least we are starting to grapple with the unpleasantness and like any problem, when it's discussed openly it seems less fearsome. We are only in the second year of a long-term psychological adjustment to a learner government and one facing continuing pressure to provide for the basic welfare of the state. But human nature gradually adjusts and the body politic is no different. MORE RICHARDSON 59  Our search for the "Richardson 59," the group of political appointees laid off by the Guv as part of the state's budget balancing effort nets another name. Stephan Helegson sent out an email confirming he was one of those on the hit list:I will be leaving my position as the Director of the Office of Science and Technology with the Economic Development Department on January 8th. My job was one of 50+ 'Exempt' positions eliminated by the Governor in December. Regrettable though it is, 'one door closes and another one always opens.' This downturn won't last forever, and the State's finances will surely improve... The Guv's office says it is not dignified to release the names of those being dumped. But the 59 being let go reveal the administration's priorities as it goes about trimming state government. That is a public policy issue and we have the right to know--and to debate. So far, readers have helped us post 20 of the Richardson 59. UNM'S PR REPRIEVE  A couple of months ago we suggested that the athletic department mismanagement mess at the University of New Mexico might be solved by giving UNM basketball coach Steve Alford another hat to wear by making him the athletic director. Well, we didn't expect that to happen and it hasn't. But Alford is still bailing out UNM--at least for a time. His Lobos are on a tear, compiling a 14-1 record and reviving the legendary rabidness of Lobo fans who are once again packing the fabled Pit.The wining streak is also dominating coverage of the school, giving UNM President Schmidly a reprieve from the headlines that have battered him and UNM football coach Mike Locklsey. But the structural and management problems at UNM are deep-seated. Schmidly, the UNM Regents and the troubled athletic department should enjoy the good news--while it lasts. NO NEW CITY? The effort to carve out a new city in the South Valley of Bernalillo County will go down in flames, predicts Dem State Rep. Ernest Chavez. The election is today. Turnout has been trending a bit higher than expected--about 8 percent of those eligible may cast ballots. Chavez says now is not the time for a new city. He says there is not enough of a tax base to support a new city and he does not detect widespread support for the idea. We'll see for certain tonight when election results roll in. CONTESTING THE COMMISSION  Did we shortchange the R's when it comes to the race to succeed Alan Armijo on the Bernalillo County Commission? One GOP advocate thought we did when we blogged of this race: "The Armijo district is heavy Dem. Whoever wins the nomination in June can be expected to take the prize in November." Our reader chimes in:Joe, Don't be so sure of this! You may be very surprised next November when thevotes are counted! It's all about performance not registration when it comes to elections. Think of the win of Dan Lewis for the ABQ city council in this same area and the trend toward Republicans in our country now. A large swath of the West side and the ABQ North Valley are in this district. Republicans tell us attorney Simon Kubiak is getting in the race. Three Dems--Michelle Lujan Grisham, Dan Serrano and Loretta Naranjo Lopez--are campaigning. Top Dems still say the R argument is a pipe dream and can't remember when an R ever represented the district. SPACING IN T OR C The Telegraph in London travels to Truth or Consequences to update the activity at Spaceport America: At the town's main drug store, Shana Curliss, a 24-year-old shop assistant, said the spaceport had captured the imagination of younger locals, if not the older ones. "It's new and it's different. I grew up in this little town and there's not much here for the children, not much work either" she said. "And the rich people will be coming to the stores, won't they?" This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here. Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, December 21, 2009Who Are "The Richardson 59?" Guv Won't Say, But We Come With List Of Laid Off Politicals, Plus: US Attorney Intrigue; Is There A New One Or Not? Who are the "Richardson 59?" That's become the question du jour as a battle breaks out between the press and the Guv's office over releasing the names of 59 political appointees who have been given their walking papers as part of the state's effort to balance the budget.Bill's office says it would not be "dignified" to release the names; the press says it has a right to know, and the Alligators say: Why wait? Let's get those names. Two have previously been revealed, former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron lost her job at Workforce Solutions and Bruce Kohl was given the axe from his post as head of the state's securities division. Now the Gators come with this exclusive list of more politicals dismissed from Workforce Solutions--the old Labor Department. But keep in mind some of those heading for the exits are retiring or have agreed to move up their retirement dates to January. That will lessen the sting for them. Here's the Workforce Solutions list: Lloyd Garley of the fiscal division, Francis Ray, Priscilla Martinez, who once was secretary to NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez, Jim Moran in the workers comp division, Nick Nieto and Randy Romero, brother of political heavyweight Ed Romero. Former ABQ State Rep. Delano Garcia is also one of the Richardson 59, but we're unclear what agency he worked for. At NM Expo the hit list, according to our Senior Alligators, includes: Attorney Nasha Torrez, who took maternity leave and will not return, former ABQ State Rep Al Otero who only recently came to Expo from another state agency, Bob Cooper, who was with the art department, Leo Pacheco, Harry Pavlides who did special projects and is also a longtime NM pollster, and John Hooker, a former mayor of Los Ranchos and an architect who was involved with Expo construction. So we now appear to know 15 of the 59. The papers should have all of them when they get a chance to look at payroll records early next year, but if reliable readers will email names from other state agencies, we'll release them to the public. Don't worry, Guv. It will be "dignified." US ATTORNEY: CONTINUING COVERAGE  There's fall out from that little bomb Republican US Attorney Greg Fouratt dropped last week. He indicated a new US Attorney has finally been picked by the Democratic White House and that he and New Mexicans generally would be pleased with the pick. But sources here and in Washington insist there has been no one selected yet for the high-profile post.It's interesting to note that the ABQ Journal picked up on Fouratt's declaration about a new US Attorney and published a report on its Web site. However, the paper did not put anything in its print editions about the speech or the US Attorney prediction Fouratt made before the ABQ Economic Forum. The selection of a new US Attorney has been shrouded in even more secrecy than usual because Fouratt's investigations into Big Bill and other Dems has made the White House and NM senior Senator Jeff Bingaman, who has a major say in who will get the job, sensitive to allegations that they would want to remove Fouratt to lower the heat on fellow Dems. DEEP BACKGROUND FOR YOU  We are told the major contenders for the post have been interviewed by Bingaman and Senator Udall and that there is a short list of five names. My Legal Beagles inform that several of them will be flown to Washington for interviews with representatives from the White House and Justice Department. A final choice will be forwarded to Attorney General Holder. He will interview that person and then give his recommendation to the President. The President decides, with the input of Bingaman, who announces the selection. The US Senate then confirms or rejects the choice.Insiders say that the short list includes a couple of names that Fouratt likes, including one current assistant US Attorney. If no final selection has indeed been made, was Fouratt, by speaking out, putting pressure on the White House to come with one of his favorites? And if he doesn't actually know who the choice is, was the implication that he would publicly object if it was not a name to his liking? Or does Fouratt actually have it right and the deal for a new US Attorney is done and he is happy as a clam because he is getting someone he wants? Insiders say Fouratt is likely to stay on with the office when the new US Attorney is named and that means he would also likely be continuing his role as the prosecutor in the corruption cases. Fouratt was a prosecutor with the office before being named to the top job. There is also talk in elite legal circles that Fouratt might be angling for the position of 1st assistant US Attorney, a position akin to a chief deputy. How much influence, if any, will Fouratt have under the new and presumably Democratic US Attorney? That's the question that Fouratt, the White House and Bingaman appear to be gaming out as this intriguing power play unfolds. LIGHT GUV DOINGS  It's unlikely that all the Dem candidates for Lt. Governor will be around for the June 1 primary, and it appears ABQ State Senator Linda Lopez could be one to falter early. First, she finished in fifth place at a recent Democratic Party straw poll in Sandoval County, and now she is taking heat for appearing to have had political strings pulled on her behalf to get a part-time job with benefits with Bernalillo County.All won't be lost, however, if Lopez does indeed retreat from the light guv battle. She remains chair of the powerful state Senate Rules Committee. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, December 23, 2009Politicos Exchange Xmas Cheer, Plus: Di On Offense On Campaign Disclosure; Will R's Catch Up? And: Would Ethics Commission Become A Kangaroo Court?
Cargo & Denish
 We didn't quite get the cell phone camera to focus how we wanted, but we can't pass up bringing you this photo of former NM Republican Governor Dave Cargo and Lt. Governor Diane Denish who hopes to hold the position Dave had from '67 thru '70.We caught up with the pair at a Christmas party at the ABQ home of Clara Apodaca, NM first lady from '75 to '79, and it reminded us that bipartisanship is not a ship that all have abandoned--or at least that's the hope this holiday season. Denish, 60, and Cargo, still going strong at 80, are both tough political actors of their respective times but both have shown a willingness to work with a diverse cast of political characters. New Mexico is like that. We are so diverse that gubernatorial success is usually a bridge over the middle. Cargo is urging his fellow R's seeking to beat Denish to get on that bridge in 2010 or get buried. Denish will seek not to loose her footing in the middle as both left and right start pushing her harder in the year ahead. DI'S ETHICS OFFENSE  Denish said Tuesday she will follow her past policy and not solicit campaign funds during the legislative session that kicks off next month, even though the law allows a lieutenant governor to do so. The law prohibits legislators and the Governor from fund-raising beginning January 1st, continuing through the session and another 20 days after that for the Guv. It makes sense for Di to refrain because she is involved in lawmaking as the presiding officer of the state Senate and is called upon to vote in the event of a tie. The law allowing a light guv to go on fund-raising during the session seems too light.She also said she will continue to voluntarily release a campaign finance report every three months, even though that's not required. We previously pointed out that her voluntary October report lumped her paid campaign staff under a payroll company, so the names and salaries of the staff were not readily available to the voters. But that info is now released on that report, although a clerical error has the staff listed as being from 2005. Her next report will come in January and her campaign says it will have full disclosure of all donations and expenditures, including staff. The next required state report isn't due until mid-March. Denish could be scoring political points for releasing financial reports more often than required. The R candidates, all vociferously attacking Denish on ethics, seem behind the curve. Where, the Denish crowd crows, are the voluntary finance reports from Allen Weh, Susana Martinez, Doug Turner and Janice Arnold-Jones? Where indeed? HOLIDAY ZINGER ABQ State Rep. and GOP Guv candidate Janice Arnold-Jones is prohibited by law from raising any campaign money starting January 1 and not ending until the Legislature adjourns, but that isn't stopping some of the snipers in another campaign from taking a shot at her. They say if Janice was really serious about becoming Guv, she would resign her legislative seat and campaign full-time for Guv, including raising money. That way, sniped the sniper, there would be no question that she is fully committed to the campaign and not planning to fall back on a run for her state House seat should her Guv effort falter. A friend of Janice's reminds the holiday politics watchers that she's the only GOP Guv candidate with legislative experience and huffs that the candidate will give up her House seat when she's elected Governor. MORE RICHARDSON 59  We've revealed a total of 19 of the 59 political appointees who are being let go by the Guv to help balance the state budget. We've done it with our Alligators who have a stellar record, but one got by them and us. Rick Silva of the property tax division of the NM Taxation and Revenue Department was apparently targeted for a pink slip, as our Gators reported in our first blog draft Tuesday, but he has since been given a reprieve. He is still on the job which we personally confirmed. Also, former ABQ State Rep. Delano Garcia was working with the NM National Guard as a legislative liaison, not the Dept. of Veterans' Affairs as we first blogged.There's going to be a mistake or two along the line when you try to bust the government for a lack of transparency in how they spend your money, especially when it refuses to release the names of those in question. Traditional journalistic tools may or may not get the info for us when reams of records are released later. That's where our senior sources come in. We're still trying to compile names so email us with any fresh info. Other questions about the Richardson 59 for the watchdogs to watch for: How many of those being let go are double-dippers, already drawing a retirement check plus their full-time government salary? And will any of The Richardson 59 be rehired in other government positions? Stay with us... THE KANGAROO COMMISSION?  We just got done blogging above about the need for full disclosure from the Guv candidates, but that doesn't mean we are going to buy hook, line and sinker anything with "ethics" stamped on it. Some things are just a bad buy this holiday season. Like this....The more we hear about the proposed state ethics commission, the more we fear it will end up resembling a Kangaroo court. New Mexico politics is crazy enough without unleashing the politicians to look at each other's dirty laundry, but that's what this commission--or carnival--would appear to do if given life in the January legislative session. Look at the proposed membership as described by assistant attorney general Stuart Bluestone: It provides for 11 members, with two appointed by the House Democratic Caucus, two by the House Republican Caucus, two by the Senate Democratic Caucus, two by the Senate Republican Caucus, and the governor appoints three members--a Democrat, a Republican and someone who is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The 11 members can only act if there is a quorum of eight, and at least eight of the 11 members must agree on every action the commission takes. This thing is looking as unwieldy as Tiger Woods' date book. Hey, Stu. Why not throw in eight maids a milking and a couple of partridges in a pear tree? Call us naive, but we happen to think Attorney General Gary King, State Auditor Hector Balderas, US Attorney Fouratt (and his successor) are more than capable of performing their ethical watchdog roles if given proper funding and if pushed hard to do so by the press and public. (Haven't the feds in recent years put behind bars two state treasurers and the former leader of the state Senate? Isn't a former secretary of state under indictment?) But this is New Mexico where we like to complicate the uncomplicated. And don't forget those nice, juicy staff jobs for the ethics commission. That matter could be the first case before the new panel--the hiring of cronies to administer the new ethics commission! WHERE'S THE WATER?  Tucumcari reader Catherine Bugg wanted to use our blog to send a message to the state engineer who presides over all things water. But it wasn't a Christmas card Catherine wanted to convey:Dear Mr. Monahan, I am writing you as a landowner in the Arch Hurley Conservancy District. For the past three years we have not had our allotment of water from Conchas Lake. This has created a great hardship on farmers, ranchers, business owners and economic development in general in Quay County, Eastern New Mexico. To the tune of $40 million per year to the economy. We have worked with our board of directors and discovered some illegal diversions upstream on the Canadian River. We, landowners, board members and the Executive Director Franklin McCasland have made attempts to contact the State Engineer's office, our local state representative, the governor and anyone else we can think of to no avail. One of our questions is if there is a 250% snow pack and yet there is no run-off into Conchas, what is the problem? We would like some help with publicity in this matter, to get our message across the state. You've got our help, Catherine. John D'Antonio is the state engineer. Tis' the season, John, so why not give Catherine a ring? This is the home of New Mexico politics.Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, December 22, 2009Making A List And Checking It Twice; "The Richardson 59" Continued, Plus: The Adams Chronicles; Readers Join High Pay Dispute, And: My Bottom Lines
Checking the list
 We're making a list and we're checking it twice, but it's not the one we're sending to Santa. This list reveals one of the best kept secrets in New Mexico--but fast becoming one of the worst kept: Who are the 59 political appointees Big Bill let go as part of the state's effort to balance the deficit choked budget? The Guv has refused to release the names saying it would not be dignified to do so. Media efforts to get the names released have been met with a legal stiff arm, but our reliable readers and Alligators have so far pegged 15 of the 59. We asked them to keep the names coming (email in any you have) and they delivered. Here's the latest from our exclusive list:One of the highest paid exempts to be given the axe is Stephen Easley. He earns about $95,000 a year as the chief information officer for the Department of Public Safety. One Republican legislator told us on background that Easley's departure is a "big loss." This legislator also complained that most of the exempt employees they are hearing about losing their jobs are mid-level state workers, not the big kahunas making over $85,000 a year and whose jobs are not "mission" critical. Attorney Pilar Vaile, deputy director of the Public Employee Relations Board, is another exempt losing their job. She made about $62,000 a year. Our insider says Vaile has been an independent director and wonders if the Guv's list targets exempt employees who have not been as loyal to him and his minions as he would like. It's reasonable speculation because by not releasing the list, the Guv is acting as if the state has something to hide. Shanon Riley makes the hit list. She's is a lawyer for the NM National Guard, paid about $70,000 a year. Riley is a former prosecutor in the Bernalillo County District Attorney's office. She didn't have much longevity in her current post which may have made her vulnerable to the axe. Darla Aiken an administrative assistant in the ABQ office of the NM Commission on the Status of Women is another of the exempt employees who will receive their last paycheck at the end of the month. She was making about $39,000 a year. We blogged Monday that former ABQ State Rep. Delano Garcia was one of those taken out, but we did not know his position. Now we do. Garcia was a $61,000 a year military liaison with the NM National Guard. That now gives us 19 of "The Richardson 59." If you can help us fill out the the list, feel free to email . A complete list of current exempt state employees and their salaries and agency affiliation is available here. THE ADAMS CHRONICLES  Speaking of salaries, that $147,000 former ABQ chief administrative officer Ed Adams continues to pull down, despite being reassigned to a lower level position in the city, is bringing reaction. KOB-TV and the Journal hit the story this week, reporting that Mayor Berry asked Ed to take a $10,000 salary cut in his new position at the municipal development department, but Ed refused. He produced a contract he had inked with the Chavez administrative prohibiting the city from cutting his pay if and when he left his post as CAO.Reader Rob on ABQ's Nob Hill comes with this: Adams typifies why people look suspiciously at anyone who works within government... Adams' $147,000 could be used to help hire younger, smarter, and harder-working professionals who would improve the city. There is a very fine line between experience and stagnation, and someone who refuses to help the new administration by taking a pay cut should be shown the door. Thousands of New Mexicans have lost their jobs and Mr. Adams' lack of courtesy or decency should earn him a place in the unemployment line with all the New Mexicans who pay his salary. But Barry Bitzer, who served s ABQ Mayor Chavez's chief of staff and worked closely with Adams comes with a different take: I've worked with Ed Adams. I don't like his call to take no pay cut, but I also remember Ed's unique ability to make major projects come in on time, on budget, look good and work right. Think Isotopes Park or Montano Bridge. If Ed had also been in charge of the Courthouse or county jail projects, taxpayers would be millions better off for it. BYE TO BACA Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca is retiring from his $90,000 a year state job. The Guv's office says: ...New Mexico’s Natural Resources Trustee Jim Baca is retiring effective December 31st...Governor Richardson announced he has appointed Environment Secretary Ron Curry to serve as interim Trustee...Richardson is asking Secretary Curry to take on this responsibility, in addition to his duties as Secretary of the NM Environment Department, in order to save taxpayer dollars...Richardson will consider appointing a full time trustee when state revenues improve. Baca has been a fixture in NM government since the 1970's. He plans to be even more of a curmudgeon in retirement. MY BOTTOM LINES  Will the bankruptcy of Citadel Broadcasting, owner of 50,000 watt radio talker KKOB-AM, have an impact on the on-air staff? Not for now, says one of our radio insiders:Morning host Bob Clark, afternoon host Jim Villanucci, and everyone in the news department is safe--for now--despite the Citadel bankruptcy. And from KRQE-TV news comes word that reporter Dave Bohman will head out to take a job in the Scranton, PA market. No new cars for new Mayor Berry or chief administrative officer Dave Campbell. RJ's city fleet car has over 40,000 miles on it and Dave's Tahoe is nearing the 100,000 mile mark. But they are still doing better than thousands of unemployed Duke City residents and they know it... Former ABQ Dem State Rep. Dan Silva tells us he has opened an Italian restaurant at the site of the old Gruet restaurant on Montgomery--not to be confused with the also recently closed Gruet Steakhouse on Nob Hill. We can tell you Dan will dole out the food in a nonpartisan manner--he did the catering for a recent party for GOP Governor candidate Doug Turner. This is indeed the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, January 05, 2009BIG BILL BOMBSHELL SENDS POLITCAL SHRAPNEL FLYING; A COMEBACK OR MORE TROUBLE? DENISH'S DATE WITH DESTINY DASHED; LEGISLATIVE SESSION LOOMS LARGER A placid New Mexico Sunday morning was both electrified and shaken as the state's dominant political figure delivered the most stunning news of his lengthy and eventful political career: Governor Bill Richardson was withdrawing his nomination to be President-elect Obama's Secretary of Commerce. As dusk fell the shaking had finally stopped and everyone settled in for the aftershocks. Some of them may be as powerful as the initial bombshell Bill set off and that sent political shrapnel flying far and wide. We got a bad vibe when Richardson refused to answer questions about a federal grand jury "pay to play" probe at a mid-December news conference following the release of this Bloomberg news story. We wondered whether it was the beginning of a media feeding frenzy that would take Richardson out. Frenzy or not, he is indeed out. New Mexico will not be represented in the cabinet of President Obama. That hurts because a cabinet seat could have made up for some of the influence we are losing in Washington with the departure of four incumbent lawmakers. Your blog goes long and deep on the big story, and it all starts now.WHAT CHANGED? When Obama nominated Bill in early December, the president-elect knew there was a federal grand jury probe involving the Richardson administration. What happened since to make that investigation turn politically deadly? Top political and legal sources suggest that someone may have "rolled" before the grand jury; that they admitted there was a pay to play scheme and that they were involved. If so, federal indictments in the case are much more probable. The new president doesn't need any of those floating around. Also, the recent notorious pay to play deal involving the Illinois Governor made the NM situation that much hotter. But maybe nothing changed. Just the level of scrutiny as the nomination hearings approached. That was Richardson's take and why he said he withdrew. CNN says Obama's aides engineered Richardson's withdrawal, fearful of an ethics blowup. They say Richardson was "stunned." ABC News reported that Obama's aides claim Richardson was not "forthcoming" about the investigation. NBC's Andrea Mitchell, who broke the story, reports there was "heavy pressure" placed on Richardson by the Obama team to abandon his nomination. "He was pushed. They missed all the cues early on. They thought it (the investigation) was less important than it's turning out to be, or that it would get wrapped up more quickly...They realized they had a problem and in the last week there was heavy pressure on Richardson to withdraw," reports Andrea.
Richardson's staff insists it was the governor who initiated the withdrawal. Why the Obama transition team did not pick up on the problems earlier is a good question. They were quick to cover their own butts when Bill was deep-sixed, but there was some obvious ball-dropping going on with the vetting process. The withdrawal timing was done to minimize damage, coming as it did on Sunday morning. It will be a one or two day story in the national media and be gone. For that, Obama will be thankful. For Richardson it will mean less damage to his reputation than dragged out and high-profile confirmation hearings would inflict. (Obama and Richardson statements here.) INDICTMENTS OR NOT?  Most observers we spoke with expect the grand jury to report in the next month or two. In his statement withdrawing his nomination, Bill indicated the air would take weeks or "even months" to clear. The Governor's political career appears to be riding on the outcome. Just a threat of trouble has cost him a cabinet position. In the extreme, an indictment would cost him his governorship and more. An indictment of officials close to him would obviously be less serious, but it would likely close the door to any meaningful comeback with Obama. However, while Richardson has retained a lawyer, no one is saying he is a target of the investigation.Richardson, 61, said the investigation will end with his administration being cleared. He indicated he saw the setback to his political hopes as temporary: "So, for now, I will remain in the job I love..." But as the day wore on, seasoned political operatives were not so confident that there will be another big D.C. job awaiting Bill. Some scoffed at the reaction of Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish who must have been reeling when Bill told her of his plans early Sunday. She said Richardson "postponed taking a position in the administration to ensure that President Obama and the American people face no delays in getting to work to fix our ailing economy..." But if Di, who already had one foot in the Governor's Mansion, was engaging in some wishful thinking, she could hardly be blamed. The collapse of Richardson's nomination was not only the worst day of his political career, but hers as well. Still, if the rosiest of scenarios comes to fruition--no indictments of anyone---Big Bill could lay claim to the title held by former President Clinton-"The Comeback Kid"--and Di could still lay claim to Bill's title: Governor of the state of New Mexico. DI'S DESTINY  Talk about a punch to the solar plexus. The 59 year old Denish surely has had political disappointments before, but nothing like this. The limb has been sawed off from under her and spilling to the ground are her immediate hopes and dreams of becoming the first woman governor in state history. She named dozens of citizens to a transition team as well as two handsomely paid aides--chief of staff Kathy Keith and communications director Chris Cervini. We hope they did not give up their day jobs because transitions just became obsolete in the Land of Enchantment. Still, Keith sent out an e-mail to volunteers Sunday night saying the transition will continue. But why? And at what cost? And who pays? What are we transitioning to? Well, maybe it's hard to let go.An associate of the Light Guv, usually loquacious, struggled to define the emotions he felt, but he maintained that Diane's political identity is separated enough from Bill's to spare her any collateral damage. Still, the earth has moved under Di's feet. If Richardson does not get out of town by the end of his term, will that mean there will be more 2010 Dem primary challengers for her? After all, there's nothing like the incumbency to scare off rivals. And since this is an ethics issue, will Denish be pushed more into the progressive camp when she presides over the state Senate in the upcoming legislative session? If she feels a growing threat of a primary challenge from the left based on campaign reform and ethics, she just might. Denish remains the frontrunner for the 2010 Dem nod. She has about $1.7 million in cash and higher name ID than most potential challengers, but the hill just became steeper. Potential Dem hopefuls, even long-shot ones like actor Val Kilmer, are feeling a winter breeze at their backs. CASEY DENISH?  And will, the Light Guv, as one Alligator mused, now "pull a Casey Luna?" That's a reference to Lt. Guv. Luna who served under Gov. Bruce King in the 90's and broke with Bruce and challenged the boss in a primary election. Denish's instincts may soon tell her she too will have to start drifting away from her boss to show the public that she is her own woman. That could make an already tense relationship between her and Big Bill even more nerve wracking. Casey Denish? Hmm.....And what of those forlorn R's? Suddenly, they hope for renewal. Outgoing ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson just days ago openly flirted with the notion of running for Governor in 2010. The prospect could look more appealing if the grand jury probe turns sour on the Guv and tarnishes Di in the process. Of course, Heather has her own ethics issues. Remember that little ol' US attorney scandal? Still, Wilson more or less secured the endorsement of the ABQ Journal for the 2010 GOP Guv nod on Sunday. Now, if outgoing Rep. Steve Pearce will just stay out of her way--as the Journal hoped and prayed he would---Heather could be on her way again--at least with Republicans. CRESTFALLEN HOPEFULS And how about that list of potential Light Guv candidates for Denish to pick from when she is appointed governor? Well, they can unpack their suitcases. For how long is anyones guess. And how about all those governor appointed and highly paid "exempt employees?" Di had asked all of them to justify their jobs as she prepared to take the reins. But today they still answer to Big Bill. That whooshing sound you hear is several hundred of them exhaling in relief. (As long as Di did not give Bill any ideas about chopping a few of them.) THE ROUNDHOUSE IMPACT  If there were still gobs of oil and gas money to gobble up, Bill's national setback may have been more eventful to the upcoming 60 day session of the Legislature. Not that there aren't consequences. The rebels will relish taking on what they perceive as a weakened chief executive. But the governor--even a weakened one--retains the veto power. And with an anticipated shortfall of at least $453 million, new programs and proposals will die for a lack of money, not necessarily because of acrimony and politics between lawmakers and the Fourth Floor. Bill, after licking his wounds for a few minutes, was probably already plotting his return--in the form of an 800 pound gorilla. If solons come looking for a fight, he will give them one. He is, however, already on the defensive with the state Senate. He can again be expected to look to House Speaker Lujan and other favorites to smooth his way around the storied Roundhouse.State Sen. Tim Jennings had some good analysis on TV news. He said the upside of Richardson staying on is having one governor for the entire session. There's already enough confusion in Santa Fe. And will this latest ethics issue--the latest in a long, long line--finally spark significant campaign finance reform in the state? Reader Fred Sisneros wondered: I am saddened to hear that he withdrew. I think he could have helped this state from the Commerce position. But I was even more disappointed to hear of the investigation. I would love to see this state expand publicly financed campaign to more offices, even the Governors seat. Maybe some of the new Democratic blood in the legislature could push it. They could, Fred. But with an imploding economy, interest may lie elsewhere. MEDIA PLAY NM TV news turned it on for the Big Bill story. We interviewed with Jeff Mahr at KOB-TV and Crystal Gutierrez at KRQE. Nationally, right leaning blogger Michelle Malkin made some hay with the Obama-Richardson trouble. The ABQ Journal's Mike Gallagher has been on the story from the start. He has the primer on the deal that dashed Bill's hopes. Solid New York Times coverage is here. MORE READER REACTION  The e-mail box was busy with reaction to the big story. Eli Chavez, a longtime foe of the Guv who years ago dubbed him "El Patron," has been quiet recently, but he came out of the woodwork for this one.Joe, I am the happiest person on the face of the earth. This is the beginning of the big crash within both parties… New Mexicans deserve better. It is time to clean house and you know what I mean...I was beat up by El Patron and his buddies… but I can take a punch regardless if it is a jab or a hook. Viva Nuevo México and its people regardless of background and political party. A South Valley Alligator started circulating a joke. "Bill and Manny will soon be cellmates!" That's a reference to the impending imprisonment of former State Senator Manny Aragon on corruption charges. But there was a good share of sadness over the turn of events. This from a Senior Alligator: "It is a sad time for us who have enjoyed watching Bill's ride. Whether we agree with him or not he has put New Mexico on the world stage. It will be unfortunate for all of us New Mexicans if there is more to Bill's involvement that just smoke. Whatever the case, the long knives will certainly emerge and the upcoming session will probably be unpleasant." And then there some of my favorites--the conspiracy theorists. Bill's rocky relationship with the Clintons gave rise to this e-mailed missive: Joe, Any inkling that the Clintons were behind this? Any word of manila envelopes sent to the grand jury investigators, bearing a Chappaqua, NY (where the Clintons live) or Harlem (where President Clinton has an office) post mark? Have the Clintons been seen high-fiving each other? Any joggers in the vicinity of Richardson's residence, along with missing family pets & slashed tires? Signed, Suspicious in Paradise. Hey, Suspicous. Did you see this? An upstate New York developer donated $100,000 to former President Bill Clinton’s foundation in November 2004, around the same time that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton helped secure millions of dollars in federal assistance for the businessman’s mall project. How does Hill's deal differ from what the feds are investigating down here? What a day it was--one that will be duly recounted in the years ahead in the never-ending and always fascinating book of La Politica. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Friday, November 21, 2008NBC Report Says Richardson To Be Named Sec. Of Commerce; Media Frenzy Set Off Late Friday; We've Got You Covered NBC News is reporting that NM Governor Richardson will be named Secretary of Commerce on Monday. If he gets the job, NM sources say they expect Richardson to remain Governor until January 20 when Obama is sworn in. That is the same say the 60 day NM legislative session begins. In early November our sources said Commerce Secretary was one of four jobs Richardson told the president elect he would be interested in filling. The other three were secretary of state, head of the World Bank and ambassador to China. We spoke with NBC affiliate KOB-TV about the latest Richardson developments, which credited our November 6th blog as being the first media outlet--nationally or locally-- to mention the possibility of Richardson becoming Sec. of Commerce. We also helped with coverage of the big story for CBS affiliate KRQE-TV. The New Mexican hits with a quick analysis ABQ Journal Washington correspondent Michael Coleman e-mails us with a smile saying the Journal deserves some love for being first in resurfacing the commerce story Thursday. No problem, Michael. But we're like dogs chasing the car. If Richardson gets this thing, then what? When Richardson leaves for Commerce, Lt. Governor Diane Denish will become governor and fill out the remainder of Richardson's term which runs through 2010. She will become the first female governor since NM achieved statehood in 1912. Denish, 59, is a native of Hobbs, NM. More as it develops.... (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, December 28, 2009Santa Gave, But Does The Taxman Take Some Away? Plus: Gov't Growth: Mostly Bloat Or Not? Also: Getting It Or Not In Old Santa Fe All 70 state House seats are up for election in 2010, voters in several New Mexico locales recently rejected bond issues and the economy is still flat on its back. Given that backdrop, we're not shocked to hear increasing reluctance from legislators when it comes to tax increases. This is in spite of a gargantuan state deficit that needs to be closed and estimated to be $600 million for the budget year that starts next July 1 and perhaps much more.A proposal to reinstate the gross receipts tax on food purchases is being greeted with withering criticism as it would hurt low income and unemployed New Mexicans the most. Also, a vote for it could easily be transformed into a hot button campaign issue. House Dems in particular are treading carefully, knowing that primary challenges in this volatile environment can sprout as quickly as dandelions. That doesn't mean lawmakers will completely skirt "revenue enhancement." There is a sense among veteran political analysts that the myriad of tax credits that are on the books and that cost the state hundreds of millions annually may be the most likely target for revenue raising. Backers of the generous film industry tax credit are especially tense as lawmakers search for revenue options that don't incite the voters or their potential opponents. TAX RATES AND THE RICH  Big Bill would probably veto any increase in personal income tax rates, but his 2003 tax cuts for the wealthiest New Mexicans are coming under intense scrutiny because of the pronounced inequality between rich and poor households that arose this past decade. From the AP:New Mexicans with the most money--the top 1 percent of taxpayers, who earn $395,000 or more--paid about 5 percent of their income in state and local taxes in 2007. That compares with almost 11 percent for those in the lowest income group... But the ABQ Chamber of Commerce remains insistent that the Richardson 2003 tax cuts for the rich should stay. A spokeswoman: The changes that were made in the income tax are part of a bigger plan to create an environment in New Mexico which brings high-wage jobs to the state for people who live here...As we make decisions about the budget, we ought to do that very carefully or we will roll back any possible progress that we can make to create high-wage jobs here when this economy turns around.. The problem for the Chamber and others continuing to advocate for these historically low tax rates for the rich is that there is no proof that they have spurred the creation of any of those promised high paying jobs and we've had the low rates for six years. CAP CAPITAL GAINS?  While we're on the subject, lawmakers might also want to finally look at the very generous treatment of capital gains--sales of stocks and bonds and other assets--in NM. From The Institute on Tax and Economic Policy:New Mexico is one just nine state offering a significant tax break for capital gains income. The state allows an exclusion equal to the greater of $1,000 or 50 percent of net capital gains income. This tax break costs the state as much as $51 million in 2008; repeating it would help ease New Mexico's budget woes, make its tax system fair, and keep valuable dollars in the state economy. In casual conversation with a wide range of acquaintances, it is clear that there is populism in the air. But in Washington it appears to be drowning in a cascade of special interest influence. Wall Street remains in pleasure while Main Street remains in pain. In New Mexico, the same resistance to this populism---a reaction to a decade of economic imbalance--also is being manifested. But if state lawmakers are looking for tax hikes that would actually enlist popular approval, they may want to consider the tax brackets on the state's upper crust and the generous treatment of profits generated from stock and bond sales. THE RICHARDSON 59 (Cont.) One of the questions readers raise about The Richardson 59--the list of the Guv's political appointees being let go--is how the dismissals help the state balance its budget. That's the stated goal of the Legislature in ordering the reduction in "exempt" employees. For example, readers are asking whether some of the appointees let go at Workforce Solutions were paid with federal funds. If they were, they say that doesn't help balance our state budget. And they ask the same about politicals being let go in January from NM Expo. The budget there is largely generated by the state fair and other income, not from general fund. We don't have a firm answers off hand, but we hope to get some.
HOW MUCH BLOAT?  Blog reader Nat Chakeres weighs in on a recent post here quoting defenders of the 50 percent increase in state spending that has happened under Big Bill since 2003. They argued that a portion of the increase was because of a lack of government spending prior to his term. Nat agrees, and adds:...One thing that is being overlooked is the state's growth during that time period. A bigger population and a bigger economy require more government spending for services and regulatory oversight. According to UNM's Bureau of Business and Economic Research, New Mexico's economy grew, accounting for inflation, by 39% between 2003 and 2008. That puts the 50% growth in the state budget into some perspective. Whatever the appropriate rate of spending during the Great Bull Market, the Great Recession has ended the debate. Cutbacks--painful ones--are inevitable. GOP Guv candidate Susana Martinez isn't one of those buying into the argument outlined above: Whether it’s rewarding political cronies with ‘soft landings’ or using taxpayer dollars for political activities, Diane Denish and this administration have grown state government by more than 50% and in the process, abused the public trust. As governor, I will end the giveaways and favors, eliminate programs that don’t work, and restore sanity to the budgetary process... But exactly what programs would Martinez and the other R's eliminate to save hundreds of millions of dollars? They have yet to say. And it is essential to the debate to note that just about every Republican in Santa Fe voted for the growth in the state budget since 2003. Does Martinez also see them as having "abused the public trust?" DOES HE GET IT OR NOT? Simon  We recently blogged that Santa Fe City Council candidate Russell Simon, 27, seemed to get it that recession ravaged Santa Fe needs a vigorous discussion of its future economic options in the upcoming March city election. But Simon's call for Santa Fe to have its own electric utility, replacing PNM, drew fire from reader Gary in Taos:I'm not sure Simon from Santa Fe does get it. Santa Fe needs a diverse economy, one that does not rely so heavily on tourism and the service industry, and certainly one that does not rely on utilities for income. Santa Fe needs new business and new jobs that are less service and retail oriented. This is a terrible idea. So when Santa Fe needs more income they can simply raise electric rates? I suspect as an environmentalist, Simon has other reasons to get his hands on PNM's electric business in Santa Fe. We did not note Simon's proposal to have the city of Santa Fe take over PNM in our original blog. Like Gary in Taos, it could give many Santa Fe voters reason to pause. Simon is trying to unseat incumbent Councilor Chris Calvert who also faces a challenge from state tax processor Doug Nava. Here are the other Santa Fe council and mayor candidates. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, November 06, 2007New Poll: They Call It A "Stinker," But It Depends Who's Smelling, Plus: Bill & Senate Update, And: The Jose Campos Mini-Movida The latest SurveyUSA poll showing wild differences with one conducted just three weeks earlier was being labeled a "stinker" by sharp-eyed observers, but the smell certainly didn't offend ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. He jumped on the results like green chile to an enchilada when he heard the survey had him beating GOP US Senate candidates Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. Never mind that the October 8 numbers showed Chavez being waxed by Pearce by 18 points. It now has Marty beating the southern NM congressman by five (48% to 43%). And never mind that he was losing to US Rep. Wilson by four in the first poll, but now beats her by four (48% to 44%). Chavez was not about to lose an opportunity to take on his number one problem--the perception that he can't win a statewide race.The poll, as shaky as it was, nevertheless comes as northern Dem NM US Congressman Tom Udall weighs getting in the race against Chavez for the US Senate nod, providing Chavez with a hook to keep the money coming in while Udall ponders. It also highlighted the importance of being on the field and in the game for the coveted Senate chair. Chavez is able to crow about the poll, use it to raise money and there is no one around to challenge him. It's the kind of thing that drives his many critics up the wall. For Chavez it's just another day at the office. Veteran political analyst and consultant Harry Pavlides said the methodology of the poll--random dialing by automatic phone call into households not screened for registered voters--is bound to deliver inconsistent results. "Once in a while you are going to get a stinker using this method, and that what we have here," explained Pavlides. He said Pearce going from 18 up to four back is the most glaring example, but he also said the Chavez-Wilson match-up is jumping around because of the polling method, not because of news or campaign events. He sees it as a potentially close race, with no clear front-runner. (Udall was not included in the survey conducted last week. In an earlier survey, he beat both Pearce and Wilson handily.) There is a consistency in the two recent SurveyUSA polls that Pavlides said merits attention. Dem Guv Big Bill is trouncing Pearce and Wilson in mock Senate match-ups. He beats Heather 59% to 37%. Against Pearce the Democratic Governor wins 58% to 37%. The first survey showed similar results, with Richardson a notch stronger. BILL AND THE SENATE  And that brings us back to Bill. Is Richardson reluctant to give a firm answer to Tom Udall on his Senate plans? And is that causing heartburn for Udall? Udall is saying the Guv has "definitively" ruled out a Senate race, but some Richardson insiders are saying they have been told to keep their powder dry, indicating that the Senate is still on Bill's radar. I asked one of these "insiders" who it was that told him to cool his jets. "It came from the top," he said. The Governor? I asked. "The top," he replied."What is especially worrisome to the Udall camp is statements like these from politicos close to the Guv. "Even if Tom gets in the race, I wouldn't rule out Richardson running. Bill Richardson is going to do what is good for Bill Richardson." Said one. Tom Udall has something to lose--a comfortable US House seat. If Richardson is turned away in his bid for the Dem nod for President and his chances for Veep look dim, he could very well join Marty Chavez in singing that Bob Dylan line: "When you ain't got nothing, you ain't got nothing to lose." NAME DROPPING We don't want to start breaking their hearts so soon, but the multitude of candidates floating their names for the southern congressional seat and the one up North, have little chance of making it to the June ballot. Remember that 20% thing? You need a minimum of 20% at the March pre-primary convention to get on the ballot. As comedian Bill Maher would say: "New Rule." It means we will probably have no more than three, perhaps four, candidates ultimately running for the Dem nominations down south and, if Udall leaves his House seat, the same number for the Dem nod up north. Same for the R's down south. The northern House seat is overwhelmingly Dem and will likely attract only one or two serious GOP contenders. THE MINI-MOVIDA Rep. Campos  Would State Rep. and Santa Rosa Mayor Jose Campos really give up his seat to go for the Dem nomination for the Pearce House seat? Probably not, say the Alligators. But it may have the intended effect of freaking out Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes who is preparing to announce his candidacy soon. Campos would eat into Cervantes's Hispanic support. The Gators point to NM House Speaker Ben Lujan to explain this one. Cervantes opposed the Speaker's re-election and now the Speaker's friend Jose is talking of opposing Joe.Hey, you and I can be pretty sure that Campos won't do it, but Cervantes may have to hit Walgreens for the Sominex. And that is what they call a "mini-movida." Meanwhile, Speaker Lujan's son, Ben Ray Lujan, chairman of the NM Public Regulation Commission, is hitting the phones talking to Dem Central Committee members seeking support for a run for Udall's House seat, but Udall, according to one of our informers, has called the leading candidates and told them not to jump in before they get word from him. BACK TO THE NAMES Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman is having his name tossed around as a possible Republican candidate for the Pearce House seat. GOP Restaurant owner Ed Tinsley tells us he is going to talk to reporters Wednesday about his planned run. The son of Roswell area rancher Aubrey Dunn tells us his dad will make his plans for the GOP race known by mid-month. Bob Cornelius of Tatum in Lea County has already announced. Others are toying with it. Another Bob, Bob Gallagher of the NM Oil and Gas Association, is also a possible for the Udall seat on the Dem side. Tom, you better hurry up and make up your mind. The dam is about to burst. THE BOTTOM LINES  State GOP chair Allen Weh says we jumped the gun when we said the current leadership of the NM GOP is in the Heather Wilson camp when it comes to her Senate race with Steve Pearce."That’s a broad brush statement that would logically implicate me since I’m the chairman. Not only is there no “proof” of my boosting Heather (excepting prior support and contributions as a member of the House running for re-election), you will find this chairman is neutral and focused on keeping the debate civil and on the issues." News? Comments? Send them our way and help keep the politics coming. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, November 07, 2007Bill Diverts Troops To Iowa For Final Push; Plus: Di's Dollar Disclosure, And: Those Wacky Polls; We Look Again With the clock ticking ominously, Big Bill has decided to marshal his forces and descend on Des Moines. His Prez campaign announced Tuesday his Nevada staffers are being moved to Iowa, the state that will hold the first Prez caucus January 3 and where it now appears only an upset showing by the New Mexico Governor will keep his long shot bid alive. The Guv is polling at about the 7% level in Iowa.The move is logical. If John Edwards is do or die in Iowa, why not Richardson? Although he is keeping staff in New Hampshire and campaigning there, the Guv will have no momentum if he does not shake up the Hawkeye State. He can do nothing less than go all in and hope for the unexpected and be there to take advantage. Look on the bright side, Guv. If it all ends January 3, you will have plenty of time to write your State-of-the-State speech for the opening day of the Legislature! Now that is sure to cheer the Big Guy up on the dark winter nights to come. VOLUNTEER PAINS Getting New Mexicans to brave the cold climes of Iowa is not easy under any circumstances, but with the caucus coming so close to the holidays some potential Bill Iowa volunteers are having second thoughts as we hear from one of those prospective volunteers. "The Gov was seeking hundreds of New Mexicans to go to Iowa to help. I, along with all the other NM volunteers, cannot commit the December holidays to the weak Richardson campaign. That timing will hurt the candidates like Richardson who rely more on volunteers than paid workers that the big guys and girls can afford. I'll report back..." STAFF INTRIGUE  Keeping your staff glued together can be a challenge when polling shows you going nowhere fast. So it is with the Guv. One national blog is going after him for kissing up to Hillary, asserting that a key Bill staffer is one of the reasons.Richardson seems to have retooled himself into running hard for a spot on Clinton's ticket. In the recent debates, when others aggressively attacked Clinton, Richardson praised her and seemingly tried to fend off those candidates who did challenger her...The "Suck up to Hillary" strategy appears to be the brainchild of Richardson media consultant Steve Murphy. Murphy...would like to be picked-up for the Hillary entourage once Richardson is either crushed or The VP candidate. Whether it should be attributed to Murphy or others in the Richardson camp, Richardson is not acting these days like a real challenger... Besides the ongoing Veep speculation, Bill has also been in the middle of the speculation over the open NM US Senate seat, insisting he is not running. Veteran insiders are still not willing to say if northern NM Dem US Rep. Tom Udall is coming in because they are hearing it out of Washington and not on the ground in NM, but those saying he is in say so with firm conviction. He would be joining ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. Certainly, the candidates hoping to replace Udall in the House believe he is coming in; we're told one of them has already hired a couple of consultants. MORE SENATE STUFF Let's go back to Monday's blog on Udall and Chavez that drew plenty of reaction. The point was not that Udall should not do all in his power to "clear the field." The point is when you try to do it before you are 100% committed to the race, you look like you're afraid to get in unless another guy gets out. That's not an emotion you want to convey when seeking a U.S. Senate seat. Once Udall gets in the long knives will come out to choke off Chavez's national cash and to tie up Dems to beat out the ABQ Mayor at the March pre-primary convention. That is expected when you are all suited up. But threatening to do it without actually getting in the game is a different story. DI'S DISCLOSURE Denish  If Diane Denish can keep it up, perhaps "pay to play" politics will not loom quite as large over the state. The Light Guv has decided to release regular reports on her campaign fund-raising for the 2010 Guv's race, even though state law does not require regular disclosure until the election year. Her first report shows no five figure contribution. You can download the report here.There is no limit on contributions here, but the largest one Denish reported taking was for $5,500 from the Dem Lt. Governor's Association. She also picked up Five Grand from Downs at Santa Fe owner and Big Bill pal Paul Blanchard. That contrasts with some of the huge donations we saw in last year's election. Denish and other members of the Guv's ethics task force have been advocating limits on contributions and more open disclosure, but the politicians on the committee have ignored calls for them to set an example and voluntarily release information or limit their own contributions. The Light Guv is the first major candidate we can recall releasing a campaign report when not required, and is going to score political points, particularly with liberal Dems who have been the staunchest advocates of ethics reform. Lady Di's war chest is healthy, showing about $1.2 million in cash and $260,000 in debt. She raised $221,000 in the quarter and spent $79,000. One of her larger expenditures was about $15,000 and went to the political consulting firm HildebrandTewes. With the race for Guv starting four years before the election and millions set to be raised, the hole in the state law requiring little reporting is as big as the hole they made to build the Pit. Denish has done her part to fill it. Can our state lawmakers now pick up their shovels? FINALLY IN It took long enough, but we finally have an official GOP candidate in the race for the Steve Pearce US House seat. Restaurant owner and rancher Ed Tinsley of Captain sent out a press release Tuesday announcing his bid. He said the top issues in the southern congressional district are: "immigration reform and border security, health care, small business and family tax relief and the safety of Americans." Interesting that the #1 issue in the USA--the no-end-in-sight Iraq war--is not mentioned. Pearce also did not emphasize the "I" word in his announcement for Senate. THOSE WACKY POLLS  More today on SurveyUSA's polling in the NM US Senate race. Pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides said the latest survey was a "stinker" because it was so widely divergent from SurveyUSA's early October poll. Hal Hensley was one of several readers to make this point:...There is a legitimate argument regarding the effectiveness of the methodology, but Pavlides has no basis in saying this most recent poll is a "stinker." It could just as well be the previous poll was the "stinker." ...The most recent poll has a larger sample which would lead me to put more credence in its results, but the bottom line is: I would recommend waiting until Survey USA comes out with its next poll before determining what does or does not constitute a "stinker." Pavlides responds that he is not happy with either SurveyUSA Senate polls because of the methodology. He says he believes the poll is most useful when it deals with candidates with exceptionally high name ID like Governor Big Bill and Senator Pete Domenici, but less reliable when measuring candidates not already very well-known by the general public. "The results involving very well known candidates often does not diverge greatly between registered and non-registered voters because everyone, not only the more informed registered voters, is familiar with them." He said. INSIDE THE POLL  Survey USA asks by automatic phone call whether the respondent is registered to vote. There is no guarantee that the respondent is providing accurate information. Pavlides believes SurveyUSA will become more accurate as the campaign progresses because the difference in opinion between registered and non-registered persons will diminish as the Senate race becomes "high information." There is no way to know how many respondents are answering incorrectly when they say they are registered voters.But even by the "very well known" standard, the latest poll seems askew as it gives Big Bill a 52% approval rating, his lowest ever and with no events to explain the drop. Despite the low approval, the poll says the Guv still trounces Wilson and Pearce with around 59% of the vote. Also, his approval rating is much higher in other polling. That's why they are calling this particular survey a stinker. Pavlides said he agrees with Hensley that the SurveyUSA poll released this week is the more accurate of the two. It shows Chavez narrowly beating Wilson and Pearce. The first poll had Pearce beating Chavez by 18 points and losing to Wilson by four. But none of the politicos we spoke with are putting much stock in any of these numbers. The problem is no NM or national news organization is currently polling the state with a firm scientific method--screening for registered voters and using live phone interviewers. Until we get that, SurveyUSA will be welcomed, but greeted with the proverbial grain of salt by the picky eaters of our cherished La Politica. THE BOTTOM LINES In Las Cruces Tuesday night, Democrat Ken Miyagishima appeared to have upset Republican Mayor Bill Mattiace by 74 votes out of 11,416 cast. Miyagishima received 5,745 votes, or 50.3 percent to Mattiace’s 5,671 votes, or 49.7 percent. If the results hold, the Mayors of NM's four largest cities--ABQ, Las Cruces, Santa Fe and Rio Rancho--will all be led by Dems. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments and stop by again soon. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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