You Know Who
Big Bill is trying to get his stuck-in-neutral Prez campaign back in high gear, unveiling another TV spot that continues the humorous shtick begun in his first two spots that popped his polling numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire. This one focuses on global warming, a hot button issue among Dem primary voters. But is the Governor casting himself as a character in his own little sitcom, and not putting enough meat on the bones of his campaign? The first two comedy spots went down well because of the novelty and creativity, but the third, mining the same vein, has less of an edge and raises the question for Richardson's somewhat quixotic bid for the USA presidency: "What's next?"

On the polling front, Big bill's boosters point out he is holding steady at 10% in the latest New Hampshire numbers. He's in the same territory in Iowa. Still to be answered: What happens to the Guv's numbers when the major candidates star airing their TV ads? Also, Hillary has opened up a giant lead in the Granite State.

AN HISTORIC BREAKDOWN?

Have the GOP members of the NM congressional delegation violated a 60 year tradition of bipartisanship when it comes to funding for Los Alamos and Sandia Labs? Big Bill argued that they have in a little noticed news release sent out ahead of the weekend.

“There is a long tradition whereby the delegation works together to secure funding for our national labs...It’s disappointing that the Republican delegation has decided to lower itself to partisan posturing...The important thing is to secure the funding that keeps those jobs...(and that Los Alamos) creates new clean energy jobs that ends our dependence on foreign oil. “

Is Richardson right? He is certainly correct that our delegation has had a history of unity over Los Alamos and Sandia, but that unity has rested on the principle that the labs, particularly Los Alamos, will concern themselves with the nation's nuclear weapons programs. That principle is being challenged by Richardson and the new Democratic majority in Congress as seen in the bill reducing lab funding. It was passed last week by by the House Appropriations Committee. Here's committee member and NM Dem US Rep. Tom Udall:

"...It is necessary to direct increased funding toward renewable energy programs as included in the Appropriations Bill. "...I voiced my opposition in the committee to the manner in which it is being proposed because I want to ensure that...the role for our national labs is not unfairly disadvantaged in the process."

GOP Reps Wilson and Pearce, in a letter, come down hard on what they think this means to the labs current mission.

"If this bill becomes law, Los Alamos will not have the tools to certify 80% of America’s nuclear stockpile without returning to nuclear testing. These deep cuts are unprecedented...and would fundamentally weaken the nation’s stockpile stewardship program that ensures the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons without nuclear testing. "

Renewable energy programs may or may not be the way to secure the future of LANL, but such programs have not been a basis for our congressional delegation's generations-old bipartisanship. The case for a dramatically changed mission must be made. If it is, the delegation may find a new basis for unity. The NM Republicans may be acting partisan, as the Governor argues, but they can't violate a "long tradition" on a matter in which none exists.

RUDY CLEANUP
Rudy in Cruces in '04
We have some tidying up to do in the aftermath of the ABQ Saturday visit of GOP Prez hopeful Rudy Giuliani. We've been going around on when Rudy last visited NM. One of his supporters said it was 1998 for a Guv Gary Johnson fundraiser. An Alligator corrected that saying it was in 1998, but for the GOP annual Lincoln Day Dinner, not Gary. And now a bunch of readers, including Larry Ahrens, Marcus Wilson and Steven Rogers, remind us that Rudy was actually in ABQ in 2004. However, it wasn't an independent visit. He appeared at a rally with President Bush who was campaigning for re-election. Not only that, Dr. Chris Erickson at NM State University in Las Cruces, reminds everyone that Rudy and the Prez also stopped in Cruces during that '04 campaign swing.

Being obsessed with this junkie stuff, I came up with the White House photo posted here, showing the President and Rudy visiting with a local in Las Cruces on August 26, 2004. Yeah, I got OCD bad when it comes to La Politica, real bad. Apparently so do you folks. I received more corrections on this Rudy thing than anything in recent memory.

WHITE'S WORLD

As for GOP Bernalillo county Sheriff Darren White being named state chair of the Giuliani campaign, that did not go unnoticed by the Dems, one of whom landed this broadside: "Voters do not like sitting sheriffs engaging in partisan politics. He is sheriff for all and not just Republicans who like Giuliani." White took similar heat when he headed up Bush's Bernalillo county campaign in '04, but his defenders say he is a partisan politician and has every right to play, even while serving as sheriff.

White has been mentioned as a potential candidate for every conceivable office. Insiders say he is most interested in Heather Wilson's congressional seat should there be a vacancy. Some saw White hooking up with liberal Republican Giuliani as a move to attract more moderate voters in the future. However, his embrace of Giuliani could put at risk his support from social conservatives who find Rudy's abortion and gay rights positions nonstarters.

Finally on the Rudy front, Robin Dozier Otten, who we blogged will head up a women for Rudy group, ran for the U.S. Senate from NM in 1994, not "back in the 80's" as we originally blogged. Colin McMillan won the GOP nomination that year and went on to be defeated by Senator Bingaman.

THE BOTTOM LINES

NM Dems tried to take advantage Monday when NM GOP US Senator Pete Domenici went ahead and voted on a resolution to express "no confidence'' in embattled US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. The resolution was blocked by Senate Republicans, including Pete, who called it a meaningless gesture. NM Dems said Domenici should have recused himself from voting because of his involvement in the US Attorney scandal: "Today, Pete Domenici showed that he has no remorse for pressuring (NM US attorney) David Iglesias to bring politically-sensitive indictments days before an election. Domenici backed Attorney General Gonzales by voting against a no-confidence resolution." Scored the D's.

The Dems were breathing fire and brimstone, but the smart crowd wondered where was their major candidate bashing Pete? The answer is that Dem Chairman Colón and company still don't have one, and until they do Pete will vote on any damn thing he likes. And that's the bottom line.

Thanks to my reader-editors for the help. Send your news, comments, and corrections via the e-mail link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Bill Richardson can't seem to escape the grip of Bill Clinton. Late Wednesday night news spread that New Mexico's Governor was bumped from the speaking schedule at the Denver Democratic National Convention because of time concerns. Namely, that notoriously long-winded ex-President Bill Clinton had gone over time. (Okay, a lot of time was taken away from Bill by an adoring hall that would not stop cheering.) Clinton's fondness for the microphone appeared to pave the way for a better opportunity for Richardson. It was announced that Bill will give a speech tonight before the 75,000 who will be gathered at Denver's Invesco Stadium to hear the acceptance speech of Dem Prez nominee Obama. It will be the largest crowd ever addressed by the Guv, and whether it makes much TV or not, it will be a memorable event. And he could owe it all to Bill Clinton, the guy the Guv said still won't speak to him because he failed to endorse Hillary's candidacy. Politics is indeed all about timing. (Richardson is scheduled to speak between 5 and 6 p.m.)

RUDY IN THE HOUSE

He was pretty quiet for a New Yorker. Former NYC mayor and GOP Prez candidate Rudy Giuliani attended a fundraiser for ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White Wednesday afternoon without leaving much of a trace, if you exclude the stack of green bills placed in Darren's campaign coffers as a result of Rudy's visit. Our insiders report about 75 or so of the party faithful turned out at the home of contractor and '02 GOP Guv candidate John Sanchez to hear Rudy. He raised some eyebrows when he predicted that his former prez rival, Mitt Romney, will not be named as McCain's VP. Rudy also took a dig at Obama as well, saying he has never visited Latin America and lacks the experience needed to be president.

The White campaign raised big money from Rudy's brief stop---a roundtable discussion went for $2300.oo and photos for $1000.00 a pop. State Dems did take note of Rudy's ABQ arrival turning Rudy's law firm Latin America connection against him:

"Why did White invite a lobbyist for foreign oil to New Mexico?" asked Josh Geise, Executive Director of the NM Dems. At the fundraiser, as White stands with Giuliani, he is standing with Venezuelan oil and against New Mexico's oil industry and American independence from foreign oil. In 2005 and 2006, Giuliani's firm, Bracewell & Giuliani, lobbied for Citgo Petroleum Corporation, which is controlled by Venezuelan President Huge Chavez."

NO ROWDY RUDY?

Our Alligators speculated that it may have been Rudy's liberal views on abortion and gay marriage that inhibited Darren from showcasing the visit much, even though Darren endorsed Rudy's candidacy this year. Why risk alienating the pro-life crowd, the reasoning may have gone. The White campaign did offer the former mayor up to KOB-TV and the message was the prez race and Obama-bashing, not abortion or gay marriage. He also did a shot with the Journal. But Rudy got out of town without anyone contrasting his views with Darren's on the hot-button issues that in large part doomed him in Republican circles.

We're hearing that White will end up getting the National Right to Life endorsement after some initial hesitancy which we blogged about recently. White did not fill out the anti-abortion group's questionnaire. But now we're told White spoke with group reps over the phone and will be listed as an endorsed candidate on the group's campaign lit. It looks like a break for the sheriff as wording over the hot-button issue of abortion can be explosive, something he sidesteps if he doesn't have to state his views in detail on that questionnaire. And there's more developments in the ABQ congressional battle

MORE TV CONGRESS BUYS
White
It appears the national Dems will outspend the national R's in TV spending in the ABQ congressional race. Insiders are saying the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee will come with about $700,000 for R Darren White and put ads up starting around Oct. 10. The Dems announced earlier they will come with $1.3 million for Martin Heinrich. Our media mavens say the Dem buy is on the logbooks as starting around September 22.

White will have to make up the spending gap with his own campaign fund-raising and the help of other third party groups. But one top GOP finance expert says White could end up being "slightly" outspent when the final numbers are tallied. However, because White, a two term county sheriff, has so much more name ID than Heinrich, R's believe it will not give the Dem a significant advantage.

Heinrich and the Democrats put up no paid media over the summer, except a radio spot defending him from attacks on his energy stance. His relatively low name ID is significant because early voting begins October 7. Did the Dems make the right decision by not establishing Heinrich over the summer? That's the proverbial $64,000 question.

By the way, it's illegal for the candidates' campaigns to communicate in any way with third party groups about TV spots being made on their behalf. Sometimes we wonder if that rule is being strictly adhered to.

One other thing. Will the national R's come with TV money for southern congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley? They haven't said anything yet. The national congressional committee is pretty tapped out. Maybe they expect Ed to pick up the check. The Dems say they will come with $1.3 million for Tinsley foe Harry Teague. And speaking of Tinsley...

TURMOIL FOR TINSLEY
Tinsley
Chris Collins' stint as campaign manager for southern congressional candidate Tinsley was short-lived. The campaign tells Las Cruces reporter Heath Haussamen that Collins is out after just a month or so of service and that Grant Hewitt, who Collins replaced, is back as campaign manager after having been demoted to deputy campaign manger.

Insiders have informed that Hewitt was more closely aligned with Tinsley's general consultant, Walt Klein, than Collins who previously managed the unsuccessful GOP US Senate campaign of Heather Wilson. Tinsley is off to a shaky start, with a case of foot in the mouth disease that made national TV and now the second campaign shake-up since the primary. Democrats are watching, and watching closely. Tinsely gave no official reason for Collins' departure.

POLL MANIA

It looks as though there's a New Mexico Obama convention bounce in at least one poll. A CNN-Time survey released Wednesday shows Obama getting 53% and McCain only 40% in our battleground state. The poll previous to that one and taken before the Dem convention had McCain leading Obama by five points. The numbers will start to settle down following the GOP convention. Most analysts we speak with expect Obama to enter the final stretch with a slight lead and that NM can safely be called a "lean Obama" state.

LOWER TIER TV

Here's a change of pace. A TV spot for one of the races way down the ballot. It's from Democrat and Public Regulation Commission Chairman Jason Marks who is in a stiff battle for re-election. His opponent is well-known Bernalillo County Commissioner Tim Cummins. The spot crams a lot into 30 seconds, maybe a bit too much, but Marks is making the right move going up early. Marks is taking public financing for his campaign, giving him about $57,000 to spend. Cummins is not taking public financing, but Marks will be eligible for matching funds if and when Cummins goes beyond the 57K. Here's Marks' TV:

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Rudy
It may not please the hard-right of the NM Republican party but GOP Prez contender Rudy Giuliani--he of the liberal views on abortion and gay rights--could be a strong contender to capture our state's five electoral votes if he manages to first capture the GOP Prez nomination field. Rudy, as first reported here, will arrive in ABQ a Saturday for a fund-raiser and make the first visit to the state by a GOP Prez hopeful. Rudy touches down in the Duke City after the recent state GOP convention again revealed the divisions within the minority party. But here in the early going Rudy is coming across as a "Big Tent" Republican, pleasing moderate R's with his stances on social issues and placating the red meat crowd with firm positions on terrorism and immigration. If the R's could put their internal differences aside, a Rudy Giuliani just might be the guy who could unite them and even attract some New Mexico Dems and independents to boot. If that sounds too easy, it probably is.

The invitation to Rudy's soiree notes that among the co-hosts is Roswell oil man Mark Murphy and his wife Susan. Murphy, a Sandra Day O'Connor type Republican, has repeatedly clashed with hard-right Roswell State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair and Roswell State Rep. Dan Foley. And insiders say they could be clashing again. They report Mark is indicating that he will make a run for the position of GOP National Committeeman at next spring's GOP state convention. No word yet on whether current committeeman George Buffett will seek another term to that post.

The Rudy visit is all about the dough. New Mexico R's will not be relevant to the nominating process because delegates to the national convention won't be awarded until a June '08 primary, and the contest will be long over before then, With that in mind, the former New York City Mayor is asking his NM donors to pony up $4600 now, the maximum amount allowable by law.

A ROBIN FOR RUDY
Dozier Otten
One familiar political name has joined Rudy's NM cause. She's Robin Dozier Otten, the cabinet secretary for Humans Services under GOP Governor Gary Johnson. She is chairing "New Mexico Women for Rudy." Never mind that Robin is the sole member of the group right now, she is confident that Rudy's ability to explain his abortion and gay rights positions will sway skeptical conservatives to his side.

I don't recall it, but Dozier-Otten says Rudy was here in '98 campaigning for the re-election of Governor Gary. She now runs a public affairs consulting business. In the 90's she ran for the GOP nomination for the US Senate seat held by Dem Jeff Bingaman.

BIG BILL'S WORLD

It's still rough out there for the New Mexico Governor who is getting the full treatment from the national press and pundits who delight when a presidential candidate stumbles and gives them material. Here's commentator Bob Novak, the Republican "Prince of Darkness," turning up the heat on Bill.

"He appeared totally unprepared at the debate. It was a continuation of his disastrous performance on NBC's "Meet the Press" last Sunday -- perhaps the worst performance in the show's history. On "Meet the Press," Richardson had seemed unprepared for host Tim Russert's questions on Iraq, immigration, gun control and his own record, culminating in his declaring he is simultaneously a Red Sox and a Yankee fan. Longtime Richardson-watchers say he has been flying by the seat of his pants his whole career, and this time he crashed and burned."

Salon.com is a bit kinder and gentler, but the story line that Richardson is in trouble because of his recent public performances persists. Here's a sample:

"In person, Richardson's performance can swing wildly even within a single speech. At his best, he is down-home, confident, folksy and authoritative At his worst, he looks tired and disconnected, and his speech is interspersed with awkward pauses and "uhs." He meanders, adding extra words to his sentences and losing his own train of thought."

IT WASN'T THE FIRST

When the ABQ city council overrode a Mayor Marty veto this week, it was the first time it has happened in a long, long time, but apparently not the first time ever as we indicated Tuesday. A city hall insider says you have to go back to 1995, in Marty's first term, but you do find another case of a Mayor Chavez veto override. For you government junkies, it was April 17, 1995 and the veto overridden was "EC-313 Mayor's Veto Message of R-220, Amending Policy with Regard to the Montano Bridge as Contained in Enactment No. 176-1991, Calling for the Delay of Construction Until Bill No. R-214, or a Substitute Bill, either is adopted into Law or Fails."

Mayor Chavez is the city's longest serving mayor since we adopted the modern government in '74. He won his first term in '93; another one in '01 and a third in 2005.

JUDY IN THE FAST LANE
Espinosa
It’s a fast moving crew in the office of NM Lieutenant Gov. Diane Denish--apparently too fast. Lady Di has been nabbed for speeding in the past, and now her chief of staff, Judy Espinosa, is carrying a careless driving ticker in her purse after getting into a pretty serious accident as described one of our Alligators

"A week ago Monday the Lieutenant Gov.'s chief of Staff, Judith Espinosa rolled her car at the bottom of La Bajada while returning to Alb. in the mid-afternoon, Her Camry was totaled and they had to cut the top of her car off to get her out. Mostly she was bruised, but chipped a bone in her ankle and has to wear one of those leg boots for six weeks. She is recuperating at home.”

The Light Guv's office confirms our Gator’s info and says Judy is making a good recovery. Big Bill is New Mexico's most famous political speeder, but says he has reformed. With Bill, Di and now Judy all busted for their wayward driving, perhaps they can form a support group. Maybe ABQ’s Al Unser will volunteer to moderate.

Join me tomorrow for a Friday blog featuring our summer ABQ dining suggestions for the politically inclined.

Your emails of news, comments or criticisms are always welcome. There's a link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

White & Lujan
As the campaign days grow shorter we're going higher up the food chain when it comes to those national surrogates coming to NM to pump up their favorite congressional contenders. And the politics of the visits is also getting more interesting. For example, on Wednesday former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani comes to ABQ for GOP congressional hopeful Darren White. Rudy will hold a "Roundtable Discussion." It won't be cheap talk, either. Ticks go for $2300 a pop. A photo with Rudy is on sale for $1000.00. Darren should not run into trouble over that, as he did in July when Lobo basketball Coach Alford busted White's campaign for promoting photo ops with him--without his knowledge. Rudy will fete Darren at the spacious digs of contractor John Sanchez. Remember him? Sure you do. He fell to Big Bill while carrying the '02 GOP Guv banner. The affable Sanchez, now more tested, may yet have another run left in him.

White was one of the few prominent NM politicos to publicly endorse Rudy when he sought the GOP presidential nomination. He said he did so because of his affinity for Rudy's stance on terrorism. That sidestepped questions on Rudy's liberal record on abortion and gay rights--two sore points with GOP cultural conservatives. Now that he is in the general election, his association with Rudy might be more helpful. White is going to be hit hard for being in bed with Bush, whose campaign he chaired in Bernalillo County in 2004. He also has a hard-right image among many swing Democrats, some of whom remember when he ran for the Legislature years ago fashioning himself as a "conservative Christian."

When it comes to running in the hard-to-peg ABQ congressional district, repackaging and refashioning politicos has been the order of the day, and now on the menu for White.

DEM HEAVY HERE

And then there's the NM march of the big name Dems. Add US House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer to the list. He'll hit the hustings in ABQ September 3, not for ABQ Dem House hopeful Martin Heinrich, but for northern congressional hopeful Ben Ray Lujan. Big Bill, who served with Steny in the House in the 90's, will co-host the high-dollar event ($4600 for a host). It will be held at the home of businesswoman Nerissa Whittington, a major contributor to Bill.

There are a few Bernalillo County precincts in the sprawling northern congressional district, but Steny may want to add a Heinrich event--if he hasn't already--to smooth over any bumps for giving his attentions to Ben Ray. Then again, there will be plenty of surrogates left for Heinrich to tap. (By the way, we are hearing plenty of grumbling about the lackluster campaigns run thus far by both White and Heinrich. Come on fellas, step on the gas.)

Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, should handily win the northern seat, becoming the state's first Hispanic congressional member since Big Bill left the House in '97. At this point, Ben Ray is the only sure thing for the Dems. The rap on him is that he lacks intellectual firepower, a charge we tried and failed to document by grilling the 36 year old for nearly an hour in a caffeinated session during the primary. We walked away scrapping our plans for a "Ben Ray for Dummies" book. No, his problem isn't knowing what's going on; it is the expectations that are going to be placed on him to build power for us in D.C. and not let the Alligators suck him into the swamp of northern NM politics. Bill shepherding Ben Ray toward Leader Hoyer is good politics. More important, it could mean good policy if Lujan the Younger proves to have the stuff it takes to play this game of ours.

BILL BY THE NUMBERS

The recent special session of the NM Legislature apparently did little to help or hurt Big Bill politically. He is still below 50% in the latest Rasmussen survey taken August 20, right after the session ended. Says the polling firm: "Richardson's given good or excellent marks for his job performance by 49% of voters...Twenty-four percent (24%) say he is doing a poor job. These numbers have been relatively stable for the past two months."

The remaining 27% of those rate Bill's performance as fair or have no opinion.

We've talked about why the governor--who owns the record for the most sweeping election victory in state history---in 2006 he carried 32 of 33 counties--finds himself below majority support. Part of it is the difficult climate for all incumbents. Bill also continues to pay the price for much out-of-state prez campaigning. There is also a sense that the state scene is stagnating, after several years of peripatetic activity led by our hard-charging chief executive. The recent round of massive layoffs at Eclipse Aviation, a company embraced wholeheartedly by the state's political elite, emphasizes the general malaise that NM has come under.

Talking with a range of business folk, we find many of them unable to post numbers comparable to last year. Throw in scary energy prices and you have voters with plenty to worry about. While NM is usually protected from severe downturns by its huge base of government employment, the economy has become more diversified and vulnerable in recent years. Also, we did not escape the housing bubble and subsequent crash. New Mexico feels the economic pain of the nation more these days and it is showing in the approval ratings of even high-level political players like Bill Richardson.

CANDIDATES BEWARE

How many times do the candidates have to be told not to mess with the ABQ Journal questionnaire? Year after year they are nabbed for not disclosing, disclosing incorrectly or simply not telling the story. Even an old pro like Dem state Senate candidate and former Bernalillo County Treasurer Tim Eichenberg has been caught in the questionnaire web. Says the paper:

"Eichenberg was charged with a misdemeanor for illegally carrying a firearm in Austin in 1994, according to Travis County Clerk's Office officials. The charge was dropped a year later for insufficient evidence. Eichenberg said that he didn't know the incident qualified as being charged with a crime."

That's an omission that earned him front page of the paper's Metro section. Bad for Tim, but a boost for ABQ GOP State Senator Diane Snyder who Eichenberg is trying to unseat. "I should have disclosed the incident on the Journal questionnaire. It was my mistake to have not done so," Eichenberg said. If history is any guide, the Journal questionnaire could trip up a couple of more politicos between now and Election Day.

PEARCE PATRON

We didn't realize it was that much, but this ABQ Journal report says the conservative Club for Growth, a D.C. based third party group, spent over $800,000 to help Steve Pearce beat Heather Wilson in the GOP US Senate primary. Over $560,000 was for TV ads. As we've blogged, they are back for the general with a recent $150,000 TV buy for Pearce. They are expected to come with more.

FOLLOWING FOLEY
Foley
The Roswell Daily Record hits with a piece asking just where State Rep. Dan Foley is living and if he is not living in his district, as required by the NM Constitution, just what is being done about it?

The House Minority Whip, according to the AP and other reliable sources, has relocated to Rio Rancho and is selling insurance. However, the paper says his Roswell insurance business is still open. A state rep is required to live in the district in which he represents, but the requirement has been rarely enforced. Foley says he will resign his position after the November election. He was defeated for re-election by Dennis Kintigh in the GOP primary. Foley won't answer the paper's questions.

The rumor mill continues to swirl around Foley. For example, will he try to get back in the Legislature by running for a Rio Rancho area legislative seat? Is he trying to line up a lobbying gig? The Roswell county clerk says she is not required to check to see if Foley's current address is correct, and with Foley set to quit in November, there is little incentive for Foley's foes to follow-up.

DEMS IN DENVER

The party is underway in Denver. Hillary says she won't spoil it. NM Dems say they will enjoy it. Here's a report from one of them as they settled into the Mile High City for the festivities to come.

...We checked into our hotel right next to the convention site. We share it with the Virginia delegation, highlighting our importance as a delegation...Security is tight, but a carnival like atmosphere with advocacy groups roaming the pedestrian mall...Souvenior vendors hawking everything Obama prevail. The first night, the delegation was whisked to the old train station where Union Pacific railroad schmoozed us with two luxury trains, free finger food and most importantly, free booze! Lt. Gov Denish, Ben Ray Lujan and former NM House speaker Sanchez made the rounds. The lonliest New Mexicans were (newspaper reporter) Steve Terrell and others in the New Mexico press relegated to the bar car, avoided by everyone. We are now making our way to the chairman's cigar reception. Everyone is upbeat and excited about he week to come.

Thanks for that update, delegate. But Terrell and company lonely in the bar car? Not when old pals Jack Daniels and Johnny Walker are sitting next to them.

PEARCE PROBLEM

In one of the most conservative NM cities in one of its most conservative counties, GOP US Senate nominee and southern NM congressman Steve Pearce has run into trouble--with the mayor of Alamogordo.

Introducing Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall at the restaurant he owns, Alamogordo Mayor Steve Brockett said this is "no country for Republican bald men."

We're told Brockett is a Republican. What did Steve do to get his goat?

THE BOTTOM LINES

From D.C and out of the blue we hear from a reader at the National Association of Manufacturers. Why? A link we put up regarding the American Energy Alliance and their political ads in NM said NAM was involved with the nonprofit group. The NAM says it has not connection to the alliance...

Help us cover NM politics. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Mayor Jackson
A mayor embroiled in a financial scandal. Layoffs of over a thousand workers at Intel. A housing bust to match a long running housing boom. So it goes in Rio Rancho, NM as the city of 70,000 experiences growing pains. Mayor Kevin Jackson, elected in a low-turnout election (18%) in '06, is resisting calls for his resignation because of his alleged misuse of city credit cards, but a poll being conducted on the Web site of the Rio Rancho Observer shows discontent with Jackson who insists he won't resign the part-time Mayor's job which pays around $12,000 a year. In an editorial, the newspaper called on the mayor to get out and suggested some possible replacements.

The City of Vision may have some mud in its eye, but it can be expected to recover. One of the reasons? A very low crime rate that suburban dwellers find attractive and a pro-growth local government.

THE SANTA FE SCENE

If only Santa Fe, similar in population to Rio Rancho, had that city's crime rate. Alas, it does not and the Santa Fe crime wave (residential burglaries up 91 per cent since April of '06) is
starting to have some political repercussions. Cops will take a no-confidence vote on their chief as the business community, roused by the burglaries and a rape outbreak, is putting pressure on Mayor David Coss to break the back of the crime wave before it becomes a permanent feature of the state's capitol city. The biz folks see a threat to the tourism economy brewing. Not to mention the lousy fate of those who have been victims of the wave.

ON THE TRAIL

We joined the Los Angeles Times (Sunday circ. 1.2 million) on the campaign trail via phone last week as they prepared this latest in-depth look at Big Bill's Prez efforts.

"In fact, Joe Monahan, a longtime observer and a blogger on New Mexico politics, believes that Richardson's pace can lead to "sloppiness." "People here say Bill has a bit of attention deficit disorder. He loves the activity. He crams in so much. How can you possibly be prepared without downtime and getting properly briefed?" But if anyone has the energy and stamina for the one-on-one in New Hampshire and Iowa, Monahan continued, it's the governor of New Mexico, "as long as his hands can still shake."

Now over to New York where the Times weighs in on the importance of the Hispanic vote to the Prez candidates, including Big Bill. From there, we go down to D.C. where the Guv holds forth on CNN's Late Edition,saying, all troops out of Iraq,none left behind.

Bill, you're tiring us out just reading about you.

RUDY'S ABQ VISIT
White
Ex-NYC mayor and GOP Prez contender Rudy Giuliani spoke to an ABQ fundraiser at a private home Saturday, but did not do any media. His campaign named Bernalillo county Sheriff Darren White, 44, a New York state native, as chairman of his NM campaign. White served as Bernalillo county chair for President Bush in '04. People who attended Saturday's closed event told us Rudy spoke at length--including time spent taking questions. He was not asked about his stances on abortion or gay rights, issues on which he breaks with Republican orthodoxy. He dressed formally, in a charcoal suit with blue tie. He headed for Colorado after the ABQ appearance.

When was the last time Rudy was in NM before this weekend and what was he doing here? We quoted one of his supporters last week as saying it was in 1998 for the campaign of GOP NM Guv Gary Johnson. But one of our insiders has a more definitive answer: "Rudy was at the Lincoln day dinner for the state party in 1998. The dinner was a tribute to (NM GOP Congressman) Steve Schiff who died a couple of weeks before the dinner. It was not a Gary Johnson fundraiser. The Mayor was an outstanding speaker." So informs our informer. (Emailers are now saying Rudy was here in '04 with Bush. We'll re-blog this one Tuesday.)

THE BOTTOM LINES

Attorney David Norvell is chairman of the state Gaming Control Board. In our Friday blog on restaurants we mentioned him as being on the racing commission. He was previously chair of that commission, but the former NM attorney general has switched over to the gaming panel.

News? Comments? Criticisms? Send 'em our way via the email link at the top of the page. Interested in advertising on the home of New Mexico politics? Drop us an email.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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New Mexico was stunned Wednesday and for a change it was not because of a horrific crime. The beancounters for the Legislative Finance Committee delivered a jaw dropping forecast. They said that because of the bull market in oil production in the SE Permian Basin revenue to the state general fund for the budget year starting next July will soar an "astonishing" $1.2 billion. That's an 18 percent increase that will send our 112 lawmakers into near delirium on how to spend the unexpected loot when they convene in January.

“New money,” defined as projected recurring revenues for the following fiscal year less current year recurring appropriations, is estimated at an astonishing $1.2 billion for FY20, or 18 percent growth from the FY19 recurring budget. 

By golly, if the beancounters are "astonished" the rest of us are floored. Previous estimates of the possible surplus were half that amount.


Now, at least for a while, there will finally be money for them to get something done--build a school addition, improve a local park. pave a worn out street--all the stuff that puts a smile on the faces of both legislators and their constituents.

Even if the hawks are successful in creating a too large reserve of 20 percent of the total budget--on top of a new rainy day fund that mandates additional savings in flush years---there will be literally hundreds of millions of dollars to shore up accounts depleted during the downturn and increase funding for the schools which take the lion's share of the budget.

The current budget is $6.3 billion. The new one is going to perhaps touch $7 billion or more, finally catching up some with the rate of inflation that along with severe budget cuts decimated state accounts and, some would argue, vital public services.

ABQ Dem State Senator Michael Padilla seemed to sum up the consensus when he told me:

Education. From neonatal to higher ed. That's our best bet. Investing in that is the long term key to our economic success and this money is an opportunity to do just that."

SERENDIPITY AT WORK

The budget forecast was serendipitous, coming as it did only weeks after a district judge ruled the state is in violation of the Constitution for not properly funding the public schools and in the process disenfranchising minority students. Charles Goodmacher of the NEA:

Not only is there a surplus, but there is also the judge's mandate to begin to move towards sufficient funding the schools. It’s the perfect opportunity for N.M. to jump start satisfying our Constitutional obligations to sufficiently funds the schools! 

Well, there were a lot of exclamation points going around as the news spread, including from the two candidates for Governor who may want the job more than ever now that there is cash in the bank. Even crusty old Steve Pearce, as conservative as they come, is finally ready to party it up:

We must take this opportunity to get more funds to our schools, improve our mental health system, cut taxes on Social Security for seniors, and make cash payments on strategic infrastructure projects like broadband, roads, and wastewater. We should also ensure our reserves are adequately funded.

Welcome to the party, Steve. We've been waiting for you.

A couple of weeks ago Dem contender Michelle Lujan Grisham called herself a "fiscal conservative." Well, uh, times change. She said of the surplus:

We must fund statewide universal Pre-K, increase educator salaries and fund apprenticeships and skills training through community colleges and high schools to prepare workers for good-paying jobs.

There are a number of caveats as the Dom Perignon flows again at the Roundhouse (or at least at the Bull Ring). The $1.2 billion is not revenue that will necessarily recur year after year, meaning that much of it will probably be spent on one time projects. But oil production--at record levels and predicted to continue for several years--will probably give lawmakers the courage to give education spending a permanent boost, betting that oil prices stay steady.

CYFD: MONEY NOT PROBLEM

Senator Padilla says money is not a major problem with the troubled agency, that it has actually been returning money to the general fund even as social worker vacancies persist and the violence against children makes headlines. He says he looks forward to seeing the funds spent in a new administration. Another problem, he says, is the delay in fixing the CYFD case management system that would help track and curb violence. He is calling on the Martinez administration to get the job done in its waning days.

CALLING TASKUS

There was some more good economic news Wednesday when it was announced that TaskUs, a customer service center for tech firms, will come to ABQ and plans to hire about 700 workers for its downtown call center over the next five years, starting next year.

Now some may pooh-pooh the idea of more call center employment, and we used to be among them. But the dream of high tech or other employment that attract Millennials and pays north of $60,000 a year is not happening here--and for a variety of reasons discussed ad nauseum on your blog--is not going to happen anytime soon.

So as college degree holding Millennials flee to neighboring states, we still have a job to do in providing employment for the youth and others that do stay but do not have high level education credentials. Call centers work well for the low-wage, service economy that has become the primary driver of the private sector here.

TaskUs did not provide a salary range for the jobs but some quick research shows the average pay for their customer service rep ranges from $12 to $14 an hour. There will be a number of other management jobs that pay substantially more that will bring the "average pay" of the workforce up, but a full-time customer rep would appear to take in something in the mid to high 20's. Company employees posting on the Internet praise the work environment and benefits offered, if not the salaries.

In announcing the TaskUs deal, the elected officials seem to be trying to spin this as a breakthrough in high tech employment. No one wanted to say "call center."

Somebody hand me a broom. I have a big pile of newsroom clippings to sweep up and with the political news being non-stop since Senator Domenici announced his retirement earlier this month, I haven't had a chance to get to them .

OK. We've got the broom, so let's go...

Former State Senator Richard Romero hosted a fundraiser this week for the man who replaced him, State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino. Romero, who lost twice to Republican Heather Wilson for the ABQ congressional seat, thinks he may have better luck with the ABQ mayors contest. The former senate president pro tem is considering a run for that office in 2009.

NO FRIEND OF HILLARY

Our post of a Dick Morris column Thursday touting a Hillary-Big Bill ticket irritated several Clinton supporters, not because of the possibility of the New Mexico Guv getting on the Dem ticket, but because of the way we described Morris. Wrote one emailer:

I don't think it is fair to label Morris as a former Clinton adviser. ...He was booted off the '96 campaign for impropriety and immediately turned on his former bosses and into one of Fox News' best anti-Clinton commentators....

THAT POLL

Hillary fans were also emailing in about that recent quasi-scientific SurveyUSA poll showing her losing NM to R Rudy Giuliani by one point (48% to 47%) . Most pointed out that she leads Rudy nationally. True enough, but we specialize in NM so Rudy's showing against Hillary in the mock match-up drew our attention. And how about Republican McCain of Arizona scoring 50% to Hillary's 43% in New Mexico? That's more than the poll's margin of error and shows the Clinton campaign will have to earn our key swing state if she is indeed the Dem nominee.

Off the cuff, we suspect Hillary's problems here are mainly on the conservative east and southeast sides where she has been branded a liberal and where opposition to a woman president may not be insignificant. It's nothing that hard work and help from Bill, who made a special connection with working class New Mexicans, can't overcome. But it will have to be overcome.

DI'S DOUGH

Light Guv Diane Denish is raising money for a 2010 her Guv run , but is also raising funds to give to other politicos at both the federal and state levels. Her money machine is outlined in detail in this AP dispatch. The key point is that of all the committees Di has formed, none point to a run for the US senate seat.

WIVIOTT'S TOUR

On the US Senate beat, Santa Fe's Don Wiviott has been seeking the Dem nod since before Domenici announced his retirement. This week he was introducing himself to southern NM Dems. ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez has also announced for the Dem senate nod and he has put together a finance committee that includes Dem heavy hitters Jamie Koch, Ed Romero and racetrack owner Paul Blanchard.

Both Chavez and Wiviott appear safe from a Denish run, but national pressure on Big Bill to go for the Domenici senate seat will hit a fever pitch if he falters in the first few Prez primaries. Only then---perhaps sometime in late January--will we know with certainty the final field of campaign '08. Chavez also announced he has $560,000 in "pledges" for his run, not cold hard cash. Money could be on the tight side until the Richardson question is settled once and for all.

(Steve Pearce will formally announce his GOP US Senate candidacy next Friday.)

PATSY SAYS NO, REALLY

We are back to where we began the month with Patsy Madrid. She now has ruled out--finally, really, once and for all--another run for the ABQ congressional seat. At least that's what the former Dem AG said in a phone message from D.C. She told us the same a month ago, but then veered and left the door open a crack. Now she has closed it as well as the one labeled US Senate. Madrid's less than 900 vote loss to R Heather Wilson last year will go down in history as one of the tightest state contests ever. Madrid is supporting John Edwards for President and sometimes traveling on his behalf. She also has a well-paying legal job.

Madrid was not expected to run, especially when news broke here that her '06 pollster, Celinda Lake, had signed with Michelle Lujan Grisham. Also, Dems were divided on whether Patsy should make another go of it. The race this time features Martin Heinrich, Grisham and Jon Adams, none of whom have yet captured the hearts or imaginations of ABQ Dems, leaving the race wide open with Heinrich and Grisham in the top tier.

WHITE'S RUN

GOP Insiders inform that Sara Lister, a veteran GOP fund-raiser for Senator Domenici, is switching hats and will manage the congressional campaign of ABQ Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. They also report that Heidi Fuller, another longtime Pete fund-raiser, will also work in the White campaign.

By the way, if White manages to get elected to the House seat next year, the Bernalillo county commission would name a replacement to fill out his term as sheriff which runs until 2010. That means the sheriff's post would very likely go to a Dem.

Home of the exclusives. Home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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Here's the latest comings and goings on the contenders for the four ABQ city council seats up for election this October. My first round of handicapping has incumbents Debbie O'Malley and Brad Winter positioned for re-election. District Six in the SE Heights will be a wide open affair as incumbent Martin Heinrich has vacated the seat to run for Congress. We will hold the analysis until we have the complete field announced. In District Eight in the far NE Heights, real estate broker Trudy Jones is positioned to take over the seat from fellow Republican Craig Loy who ran unopposed four years ago.

We see the long hand of ABQ Mayor Chavez in candidacies announced against O'Malley and Winter, but they retain solid support in their districts. They go off as 2 to 1 favorites with effective negative campaigning needed against them to shrink the odds. We'll keep you posted as post time nears.

As for the mayor, this is his second consecutive term, a time when the political cycle dictates some weakening. We've seen the city council assert itself more, but they had permitted the pendulum to swing so far toward the executive that it is just returning to a more normal balance. Chavez could be suffering some burnout after so many years, but he combats it with willpower and energy. His ambition for higher office also keeps him on his toes.

His Honor has lost control on a couple of issues, but the central governing ideas for the city continue to emanate from the 11th floor, not the council. His ideas, like him, remain generally popular. If those ideas start to dry up, more substantial power could start to flow through the nine councilors. One other thing. It is possible, if not likely, that Marty could forgo a run for Guv and seek another mayoral term in '09. Having that option doesn't prevent lame-duck disease, but it makes it less severe. (The mayor or someone else would have to go to court to get current term limits overturned as was done with city council term limits in order for him to run for another term.)

RUDY, AL TO NM

Insiders report in that GOP prez candidate Rudy Giuliani will make his first NM campaign appearance in ABQ in June. Additional details to come, but we are told the former New York City mayor will hold a fund-raising event. Meantime, Democrat Al Gore, who is not being ruled out yet as a possible '08 contender, is also coming to the state, not to campaign but to talk the environment.

NO RELIEF IN SIGHT

With pump prices back above three bucks a gallon, the idea of rebating more of the state's windfall energy surplus directly to consumers should again arise, but it isn't because politicians of all stripes want to spend every dime that comes their way. ABQ State Senators Ryan and Cravens made a stab at the concept in 2006, but did little to advocate for their rebate proposal. Even conservatives are too tempted by the huge pot of gold that has been coming into Santa Fe the past five years because of high natural gas and oil prices. If all that money is being spent wisely and is necessary for government programs, we should not have any rebates. How many of you believe that?

It is not much prettier in Washington, where NM's two U.S. Senators command the Senate Energy Committee--Jeff Bingaman as chairman and Pete Domenici as ranking member. But we are hearing the same old tune--the problem is long term. Well, as the fella once said, in the long term we're all dead. Republican Pete could help by working to persuade the President to end the no-end-in-sight Iraq war which creates political instability that puts a premium on world oil prices; Democrat Jeff could slap the oil and gas industry on the butt for their refineries and why they only seem to be working part-time. Yes, less dependence on oil is the long term solution, but does that mean we deserve a do-nothing Congress while New Mexicans tool around in eight year old Chevy Malibus trying to make ends meet? (If you own a gas hogging Hummer, you are on your own.)

THE CITY REALLY DIFFERENT

Will someone please do something about the over-the-top Santa Fe police department? A crime wave has swept the city and now they want to hire Mexican nationals to fill cop vacancies? Actually, the department needs more vacancies--including the top brass. Where is the mayor? Hiding in a booth at Tiny's waiting for it all to go away as this story breaks nationally? Mayor, you are supposed to be safeguarding an American treasure, our nation's oldest capital city. But you already knew that.

THE BOTTOM LINES

This long, long race for the ABQ congressional seat is going to be a barrel of fun--or not. One of our Dem emailers ripped into hopeful Martin Heinrich here, calling the city councilor a "pretty boy" with no substance, a comment that deserves rebuttal. Here it is from Heinrich cheerleader Andrew Scrank: "Where's the beef?" In a very short political career Heinrich has made enormous contributions on a host of important issues: economic justice (e.g., the ABQ minimum wage initiative), environmental protection (e.g., the protection of Open Space, incentives for hybrid vehicles...crime control..." Opines Andrew. But Heinrich, we're sure, is thankful that they aren't calling him ugly.....Go ahead, Bill. Make it official.

Thanks for the company and the email. Send it via the link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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John McCain
Moments after the major networks announced last night that Arizona Senator John McCain had clinched the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, the political pros were already moving on to the question of how he would do in our swing state of New Mexico. The outlook was generally upbeat.

McCain does not set hearts fluttering among right-wing R's (see Rush Limbaugh) but that could be the key to his success as he begins the long battle for this state's five electoral votes.

"McCain has appeal to independents and conservative Democrats. Maybe he loses some on the Republican right, but he has the opportunity here to pick up many more votes than he loses because of his sterling military record and friendly stance on immigration. Both have appeal to New Mexico Hispanics," said one of our longtime Alligators, although he also pointed out that McCain might be trying to have it both ways on immigration.

McCain reminds some oldtimers of moderate NM Governor Dave Cargo and the early years of Senator Pete Domenici. Both Cargo and Domenici cobbled together a coalition of Republicans, Hispanics and conservative Dems. Cargo did it in 1966 and 1968 when he was twice elected governor. Domenici did it in most of his US Senate races starting in 1972.

The spoiler at the McCain party could be his hard-right stance on the Iraq war. It is such a litmus test issue that some of the pros believe it could block the 71 year old from connecting with voters.

"I expect by October his hardcore position on Iraq will be considerably tempered. His talk about staying there 100 years may be diluted as he works to put together a broad coalition," remarked another of our veteran election watchers.

Other pros went to the history books and cited the 1920's success of Republican NM Senator Bronson Cutting who successfully courted Hispanic veterans. McCain, with his military record, could also court this large voting bloc, spreading goodwill through the Spanish North and perhaps cutting down the big Democratic margins there that often doom statewide GOP candidates.

Democrats acknowledge the NM opportunity for McCain, but they think the country is trending heavily Democratic and that in the end that will carry the day and the state. Who will lead their ticket was still muddled last night as Hillary came back to win the Dem Prez primary in Ohio and Texas was a cliffhanger. A recent Rasmussen poll shows McCain and Obama tied in NM at 44% each. In that same poll, McCain beats Hillary 50% to 38%.

MCCAIN IN NEW MEXICO
McCain earlier secured the endorsement of NM GOP US Senator Pete Domenici. ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson, who is seeking her party's nomination to succeed Domenici, shares a military background with McCain and also tries to style herself a 'moderate' Republican sometimes ala McCain. However, in her primary race she is calling herself a "common sense conservative." Heather brought McCain to ABQ in the closing days of her tight-as-it-can-get '06 US House race with Dem Patricia Madrid.

Darren White, Bernalillo County Sheriff and likely US House nominee for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by Heather, endorsed Rudy Giuliani for the Prez nomination, but McCain may be a better leader of the GOP ticket for White than Rudy would have been. Again, if McCain's candidacy veers toward the middle it could attract independents and Reagan Dems, the same voters White will need. GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce, more of a red meat Republican than his senate rival Wilson, is also a military veteran and will embrace McCain on that level.

I first met McCain in 1984 when he had just begun his service in the US House and before he claimed a senate seat. He campaigned for Republican Lou Gallegos who was running for the northern congressional seat against Bill Richardson. I was serving as Lou's press secretary. That was one of McCain's first, if not the first, political visit to New Mexico by the soon-to-be standard bearer for the nation's Republicans. And longtime NM Republican Greg Zanetti, among others, will remember when a group of us--Dems, R's and independents--got together in 2000 to explore starting a Prez committee for McCain in NM. That lasted all of a couple of days as McCain's run ended with a loss in the GOP South Carolina primary to George W. Bush.

SWISSTACK'S STAMPEDE
Mayor-elect Swisstack
If Tom Swisstack wants to do big things, now is the time. The former Rio Rancho mayor and current NM Democratic state representative, won the mayor's job back last night by trouncing six other contenders and scoring an impressive 59% of the vote. Swisstack needed 50% to avoid a run-off. He got that and more. With the electoral mandate will come high expectations, especially for improvements to the infrastructure (roads, sewer) that are long-standing needs in the fast-growing city now registering a population of about 75,000.

(Here's the results of the Santa Fe city election. Results from other municipal elections across the state are here)

Swisstack, popular in his first term in the late 90's, has had no ethical issues which was a relief to city voters, having been traumatized by the scandal-ridden term of Mayor Kevin Jackson who was forced to resign.

The question now is whether Swisstack will resign his state House seat and let the Sandoval County Commission appoint a replacement. Swisstack has said he will not serve as both representative and mayor. But blogger Eric Maddy reports Sandoval County Commissioner Jack Thomas, the leading contender to replace Swisstack, does not want to give up us commission seat until his term expires at year's end. But Swisstack's Rio Rancho district is actually lean Republican and Dems might want to give their man a heads-up by making him an incumbent and attending this summer's special session on health care. GOP educator Paula Papponi is already campaigning. We'll keep you posted.

THE BOTTOM LINES

When is a "free ride" a free ride? We noted Tuesday that Democratic Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulose Oliver could be in for free ride #2 because she has not yet drawn June primary opposition and was appointed to the post by the Bernalillo County Commission to fill out the term of Mary Herrera who was elected secretary of state. Maggie chimes in that while she understands she has not yet stood for election, she says her appointment didn't feel like a free ride. "There were a lot of names competing" for the clerk's position, she said. Not that there's anything wrong with a free ride...

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Sen. Domenici
The New Mexican political community gasped for breath Tuesday night as it was taken away from them by the shell shocker contained in the latest Survey USA poll. The approval rating of NM GOP US Senator Pete Domenici has plunged to an historic low of 41%. Say what? You read it right. 41%. Now that you've caught your breath, let's talk.

In his nearly 35 years in the Senate, Domenici has never registered this low in any public opinion poll. His operatives dismiss the survey's accuracy because it is conducted by automatic phone calling. Last night Domenici's office told KOB-TV their poll "verges on the ludicrous" but Pete is not releasing his own polling, and the down trend is unmistakable and well-established.

Domenici began plummeting in March when he hit 57% approval as his involvement with the US attorney scandal was revealed. The 41% comes on the heels of a big anti-Domenici, anti-Iraq war TV ad buy that hit the state's airwaves in August.

It was Domenici "reversal" on the conduct of the no-end-in-sight war that his advisers believed would start resuscitating his poll numbers. But Domenici's July announcement that he was parting ways with Bush on the unpopular war was followed by a series of votes actually supporting the White House policy. Longtime Democratic pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides says the impact has been devastating.

"He said he split with the President, but didn't vote that way. Often times senators can get way with that, but the whole world is watching this issue. The TV ads reinforced his votes for the White House position. The margin of error of this poll is 4.1%, meaning he may be at 45%. But the crucial number for reelection is 50%, and he is definitely below that. He is a wounded bull, but the Democrats still have not come with a heavyweight candidate.

"Pete still has to deal with the Senate Ethics Committee investigation on the US attorney firings. If the Democrats don't take advantage of his weakness they will have blown an historic opportunity to take the Senate seat," said Pavlides.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

The poll was taken Sept. 14 thru the 16th and represents an 11 point crash from Pete's August approval of 52%. In this month's poll, 54% said they disapprove of the job Domenici is doing, 41% approve and 6% said they were not sure. Only 62% of Republicans approved (that could be low) while 66% of the Dems gave Domenici a negative rating as did 58% of independent voters. At the beginning of the year Pete was at 66% approval. He's been going down like he's on a Taos ski slope.

WHO HAS THE GUTS?

State Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colón was quick with a news release on the poll, saying it "confirms that Domenici is in serious danger of losing his job when New Mexicans go to the polls next year."

But to whom? The party has two lesser knowns on the field, Don Wiviott and Jim Hannan of Santa Fe, but insiders don't believe they are of the weight class to defeat an even seriously wounded Domenici. The poll immediately rekindled speculation about Big Bill running. If his Prez campaign falters in January and there is still no notable Domenici foe, the Governor will come under enormous pressure to challenge the Senator, according to top Dems.

Dems salivated even as they fretted. Can they wait until early next year for Richardson? If he doesn't want it, will he say so and help flush out a major league contender? And what about ABQ Mayor Chavez who fouled up when he said he never would challenge Domenici? That promise is looking like it could have been written in melted butter. If these numbers hold, he will have to consider backtracking. The Republicans seem to know it, having attacked the ABQ Mayor with a billboard campaign only this month.

MORE EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

The Alligators said the US attorney scandal and the unpopular war may not be the only reasons for the Domenici descent. They also sited the possible layoffs at Los Alamos and Sandia Labs, heavy employers of Republicans who have heard Domenici say to prepare for layoffs, instead of pledging that he can pull them out of the fire as he has in the past. Also, at 75, Domenici's frailty is showing and voters may be picking up on it.

What can Pete do to avoid disaster? Start voting against the war? Get some early media out in the mailboxes? What? So far, crossing his fingers and hoping for no strong opponent has done the trick, but how long can that hold with his approval in the cellar?

There will be an absolute feeding frenzy over this poll in the upper ranks of Democratic power in Washington and New York, if not in laid-back New Mexico. The nationals will continue to ramp up the pressure as they try to pressure Domenici to withdraw from the race. Don't rule out the possibility.

For now, call your bookie and have him take down those bets you placed on the 2008 NM Senate race because here in the early fall of 2007, all bets have just been called off.

NM RUDY ROOTERS

Republicans finally get to make a little noise in New Mexico in the 2008 Prez race. They've been more than overshadowed as favorite son Bill Richardson seeks the Dem Prez nod, but Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, who raised the flag here for contender Rudy Giuliani a few months ago, will tonight host what appears to be the first formal state function for a 2008 GOP Prez hopeful. White will host a "National House Party" for the former New York Mayor. The event will feature a live Web-cast from the candidate at 6:30 p.m. Those attending won't be hit hard for donations, but the hat will be passed.

BILL BEAT

He's covered everywhere, but we distill it for you. Here's the stuff we need to know on Bill's latest campaign doings.

DAMN THE ALLIGATORS!

City Councilor Don Harris, fresh from a near all-nighter at the ABQ Ethics Board where he was fined $2500 for five campaign finance violations, checked in to disagree with the Alligators who are telling us his chances of losing his recall election are even money or better. " I am going door-to-door and not getting that impression at all. There is no "there" there to this recall," he declared.

Meantime, Harris attorney Doug Antoon weighed in our coverage of the ethics hearing.

"Wow, Joe. That you could report what you did, when the number of alleged violations were about 180, potentially totaling $90,000 in fines, but only resulting in five violations totaling $2,500, is beyond me and those who witnessed the hearing. (Recall advocate) Lowe promised that "fraud would be proven" and that "this would be devastating to Don." Reality check, please."

Wow, Doug. Don was hit with I believe was the largest ethics fine in ABQ history. The council job pays about $10,000 a year, so $2500 is a big deal. That's your reality check. As for proving fraud and whether the hearing was "devastating," we'll leave that up to District Nine voters.

And a final note form Counselor Antoon:

"I knew as a lawyer that we had just watched lemons being turned into lemonade by an Ethics Board that refused to be manipulated by the pressure from the 11th floor of the building we were in. Merciful justice was served," said Antoon in a somewhat poetic mood.

Recall advocate James Lowe, 78, upon hearing of Antoon's comments, quipped: "What kind of marijuana is he smoking?" Lowe maintained the ethics outcome for Harris was as devastating as he predicted, and he said his group would put the ethics board news in a mailer to be dropped into the mailboxes of the district's registered voters this week.

HARRIS SURVIVAL KIT

Meanwhile, Harris has sent out a slick 14 minute DVD explaining what he calls "the hateful" campaign to end his term early. He also sent out an audio CD to make his case. His attorney also poked us for using the term "guilty" in describing Don's ethics violations, saying that word only applies to criminal cases and tribunals. But the chairman of the ethics board, attorney Bob Tinnin, Jr. asked the board members if they found Harris "guilty" or "not guilty" on each charge.

The 11th floor, of course, is where one Martin J. Chavez spends his workdays as Mayor of our beloved River City. Funny how it was a fundraiser put on by Marty for Don Harris in June of '06 that led to many of Harris's finance problems. Marty was trying to make friends with Harris who he did not support in the '05 election. But the kiss and make-up didn't last long. Now, Marty will get to appoint someone to fill out Don's term if voters kick the councilor to the curb next Tuesday.

ALSO ON THE TRAIL...

The Harris recall has been sucking up a lot of the oxygen surrounding Tuesday's ABQ election, but the candidates in the four other council districts are out there on the circuit. Most of them spoke to representatives of the city's development community Tuesday. Notably absent was District Six contender Rey Garduño who seeks to represent the most environmentally active neighborhoods.

Media coverage of the election will heat up in the final days. Over at the ABQ Journal, Dan McKay, the paper's new city hall reporter, but an old newsroom hand, is busy on the campaign trail. Besides the print edition, Dan is posting to his new blog. The ABQ Trib's election watcher, Erik Siemers, will join us Monday at 5 p.m. for our KANW 89.1 FM live Election Eve Special.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author