Steve & Heather
Steve Pearce is giving them something to think about and then some. The GOP southern NM Congressman, in a move described variously as "ingenious" and "savvy," leaked word Tuesday night that he will form an "exploratory committee" as he continues to weigh an '08 run for the Republican nomination for the US senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici and coveted by the already announced ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson.

"Pearce's move puts the Republican senate race on ice, and it freezes the jockeying for the southern congressional seat, too. It is an ingenious move. He will benefit from the continued guessing game on whether he will eventually get in the race. It sends a message to his district that he is a player and that this nomination is not Heather's to have simply for the asking," analyzed Dem pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides.

Rumors floated around the Internet Tuesday that Pearce would get in the race within hours, but my Alligators said something else was brewing. They told me that Pearce, 60, was in the field polling Tuesday night and wanted to take a look at numbers matching him up with Heather. An exploratory committee will give him time to consider the results, see if he can collect cash, and test support in a state Republican party that is divided over who should be their nominee.

INSIDE THE GOP SPLIT

That division is symbolized by the infighting over the possible senate candidacy of GOP state Land Commissioner Pat Lyons. The pros tell me in a three way race Lyons could split conservative votes with Pearce, handing the nomination to Wilson. Without Lyons, my experts, who have pored over the numbers, think the conservative Pearce conceivably could beat the 46 year old Wilson on the strength of blowout victories in the SE counties, San Juan county and by holding her totals down in Albuquerque where not all R's appear united behind her. But a united ABQ GOP behind Heather would mean the end of Pearce.

Some supporters of Pearce are claiming Lyons is a stalking horse for the faction of the Republican Party represented by lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett and Chairman Allen Weh, as well as operatives with the Republican National Committee. They claim Lyons knows he can't win and is being used to pressure Pearce into abandoning the race.

Weh was recently challenged for the chairmanship by rural R's partial to Pearce. There was also a fight for the GOP Bernalillo county chairmanship recently that insider R's reported showcased the division between Pearce and Wilson supporters.

Barnett fielded primary candidates against other Republicans in 2004 and has been a longtime GOP player with connections to the Bush White House and outgoing Senator Domenici. He was involved in the ouster of Republican US attorney David Iglesias. Weh is a loyal Wilson supporter. She was instrumental in placing him in the chairmanship.

Some of Pearce's supporters are speculating that Pearce could turn Lyons to his side and keep him out of the senate race in exchange for supporting Lyons for Pearce's House seat. Lyons doesn't live in the district, but is a rural New Mexican who could make it fit.

None of our top analysts believe Lyons can win the Senate nod on his own, but right now he is in a prime position to get what he can from either the Wilson or Pearce camps for a pledge to either get in or get out. Lyons' supporters say the speculation is all balderdash; that he believes Wilson in particular is a weak candidate and he thinks he can beat her and that's why he is considering a run, not to carry water for anyone.

SHOW ME THE MONEY

Pearce is a wealthy former oil executive, with a net worth variously estimated from $5 million to $25 million. He could self-finance his campaign but friends say he is not of a mind to, although he could come with start up money.

CAN PEARCE WIN?

Pearce appears to be serious about considering the senate run, but he is checking his ego at the door. The SurveyUSA poll numbers this week show him losing a senate race to Governor Big Bill in a landslide. But the numbers do say he could beat ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez.

If Bill's Prez campaign sputters, he could decide to enter the race and either Wilson or Pearce would likely be doomed. Pearce has to bet Bill won't get in. He also has to believe that Democrats, including those in the camp of newly minted senate candidate Marty Chavez who think he would be a much easier candidate to defeat than Wilson, have it all wrong.

"He is conservative. He can be portrayed as an extremist. New Mexico does not have a history of sending conservatives to the senate," argued Dem Pavlides. "This is a very difficult decision."

Reflecting that difficulty, Washington and New Mexico Alligators we interviewed were torn down the middle on whether Pearce is only making a move to strengthen his statewide reputation, or whether he will actually challenge Wilson and engage in an historic battle for the heart and soul of the NM GOP.

The Congressman, who makes his home in Hobbs, will apparently have time to assess the options assuming he keeps the exploratory committee open for more than a couple of days. Most observers think he will keep the suspense going for at least a couple of weeks. That's fine with us and other excited politics watchers, but it's pure torture for Heather Wilson.

ALL DRESSED UP AND NOWHERE TO GO

In the event Pearce vacates the southern seat, look for Democratic Public Regulation Commissioner Sandy Jones to give the race a serious look as well as Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes. Al Kissling and Bill McCamley are already running, and if Steve goes the list could grow even longer. But, as we are fond of pointing out, many candidates could fold at the March 15 pre-primary convention where a candidate is required to get 20% of the vote to make it on the June primacy ballot. If he or she does not, it's game over.

MARTY VERSUS HEATHER

If Pearce doesn't get in and Diane Denish and Big Bill also stay on the sidelines, then the odds dictate that ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, 55, and Heather Wilson will face off for the New Mexico senate seat. If you're keeping score on that basis, it's Marty 1 and Heather 0.

Chavez made his formal entry into the race Tuesday morning, following Heather's hasty announcement on Friday. The time Chavez had to put his together showed. His speech, peppered with anti-Iraq war references, offered base Democrats some meat, in contrast with Wilson who made very general remarks amid signs printed for her last House campaign, not a senate run. In contrast, Chavez unveiled a new senate logo, Web site and executed a media plan that had him doing more than two dozen local and national interviews.

But if Marty and Heather are to be our warriors this will be one long epic and dirty battle. State Republicans didn't even give Chavez the traditional courtesy of announcing his candidacy without interference. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson says they were passing out anti-Marty bullet points at his announcement at ABQ's Eclipse Aviation even as he spoke. If the R’s want to create sympathy for Marty, that's one way of doing it. How about the GOP puts up a new billboard: “New Consultants--Badly Needed."

THE CHAVEZ PROBLEM

Marty's problems with a small radical wing of the GOP is not going to be his major problem, at least not right now. It is with the liberal wing of his own party. "The most important number in the SurveyUSA poll is that 25% of liberal Dems are supporting Wilson in a race against Chavez. He gets 65%. He must increase that number, " argued pollster Pavlides.

Chavez did not offer any specifics to me Tuesday night on how he plans to win over the progressive wing, He said there has been a lot of "miscommunication." One thing he has going for him is that many enviros believe he will vote with them if he wins the senate seat.

"We believe he will vote like Senator Bingaman, so the more he talks about national issues, the better he will be received," one leading Santa Fe environmental activist told me.

Another analyst told me: "Governor Richardson is pro-business; Marty is pro-developer. That's the difference. He has to reprove his environmental credentials because of his incessant push for bridges over the Rio Grande and a road through the Petroglyphs, among other things," He said.

Beyond that, Chavez will have to raise millions of dollars. Heather Wilson told KKOB-AM radio's Peter St. Cyr Tuesday that she believes the Senate race--primary and general--will cost an astounding $10 million.

Chavez told me that former NM Dem Party chairman and longtime Dem fundraiser
Jamie Koch, who is also chair of the UNM Board of Regents, has agreed to co-chair his senate finance committee.

Koch is also a finance heavy for Diane Denish which the Chavez camp was pleased to point out. They believe this is another sign that they think Di is not about to join the Dem senate fray. But after watching the Machiavellian maneuvers of Steve Pearce, maybe Di will open an "exploratory committee" of her own. That would sure be a feather tickling Marty's feet.

Chavez is not exploring. He's in, and even had a few butterflies as he made his debut as a senate contender. "I was a bit nervous. After all, this is the United States Senate," he told me. Yes, it is, But if you listen to Big Bill, caught up in the heat of a Presidential campaign, you would think it was equivalent to the local Kiwanis club. But it may look better to him in the aftermath of the Iowa results. Or maybe not.

THE BOTTOM LINES
Bloggin' On TV
Whether a bloody GOP senate battle develops is yet to be resolved, but certainly it would help the Dems, who look as if they will avoid that fate unless Denish does the unexpected and risks the Guv's chair for a senate bid...If elected, Chavez would be the first Hispanic NM Senator since Joe Montoya who was defeated for reelection in 1976....If Pearce fights it out for the US Senate with Heather and both their House seats go Democratic and the Dems also take the Domenici Senate seat, the five member NM congressional delegation would go all Dem. The last time it belonged to one party was back in 1981-'82, says one former Capitol Hill resident. (That's me.)

The last Chavez to serve NM in the US Senate was Senator Dennis Chavez who, like Marty Chavez, was a graduate of Georgetown University...

I talked with The Politico about our wild US senate race. It's good stuff from top writers.

Insiders say before entering the senate fray, Mayor Chavez held a meeting with his department directors and told them "not to do anything stupid" while he was gone. Does that include sighing in relief that the boss is hardly around anymore?...

Can you believe all the politics? And the exclusives these Alligators keep coming with! Let's keep it going. Email your news and comments to the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Martinez & Pirtle

There may be little certainty about how the key state legislative races will settle out Tuesday night, but one thing is for sure--when it's all over the toxic atmosphere at the Capitol will be even more so. It probably won't degenerate into those fist fights you see break out in the Italian Parliament, but it's going to be brutal and personal.

No Governor has ever gone this far publicly to try to get her way in Santa Fe--letting her chief political consultant go hog wild in races up and down the board--but no matter what happens Election Night it is clear she is not going to get her way.

The only path for legislative success for Martinez remains compromise. Could the approach of her own re-election bid in 2014 lead her down that path, despite the political assault she has led against the Senate leadership and in the toss-up state House races? You can hope.

Even if Senate leaders Jennings and Sanchez were to be defeated and the Republicans took control of the House for the first time in 60 years--the roadblocks in the Senate would still stand. And the personal animosity toward the Fourth Floor for what happened would run deep.

Maybe the Governor thinks legislators would cower in fear if she plays out a successful hand Tuesday night, but the odds are prohibitive for her to sweep. In fact, a number of observers believe the opposite could happen--the survival of Jennings and Sanchez and the Dems hold the House

The Governor is simply asking for too much--complete acquiescence on the part of the political system--a system in which Democrats comprise nearly half the electorate and her party barely a third.

We are at an inflection point with Governor Martinez. For two years she has governed in campaign mode, with her campaign consultant serving as shadow governor. Now, if she is to have any legislative success at all she will have to truly govern through negotiating and traditional tools of persuasion.

The alternative and the one we fear we shall see is a Governor as uncompromising as ever, determined to run in '14 against "a do-nothing" Legislature.

Everything in Santa Fe beginning next Wednesday gets harder because of the malevolence of this campaign. Harder feelings, harder heads and harder economic times.

THE PIC

The pic posted with the lead story is that of the Governor and Cliff Pirtle, the 27 year old Tea Party friendly rancher who seeking to upset Roswell Democratic State Senator and Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings. Pirtle's campaign has been run by Reform NM NOW, the PAC run by Guv consultant Jay McCleskey.

STRONG FINISHES

He's known as a salt of the earth kind of guy to his rural New Mexico friends and neighbors and Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings has come with a strong close for them in his battle with the Guv and Pirtle--a battle that will be recounted for decades to come. In his final TV ad, he calls the campaign against him destructive and that the charge he is soft on child killers "ridiculous." Jay and the gang are also finishing strong, with more new charges. It has been relentless and who will win is still up in the air.

The other strong finish comes from trial attorney and Democrat Lisa Curtis who faces an uphill fight as she attempts to take the state Senate seat vacated by Kent Cravens. Here's her final TV ad (we know. TV ads in state Senate races!) taped in her home kitchen and from where she says New Mexico is the poorest state in the nation, but politicians want to talk about other, less important, issues:

Politicians want to focus other issues, and I get it. We do have bad laws like driver's licenses that must be reformed. But honestly, we are the poorest state in the nation and we have got to work together, put party aside and get things done...

Curtis is opposed by Republican Mark Moores. One of his supporters knocked the Curtis spot for being filmed in her expensively outfitted kitchen while she waxed sorrowful over the state's economy.

Curtis, who has largely self-financed her expensive campaign, has built a lot of name ID during this campaign, but she tells us she is not aiming for higher office. But we learned decades ago when they put their name in lights, it hurts when they see it dim.

MAD MONEY

We're now in the millions in the spending derby in the state legislative contests. The jaw-dropping totals in this new era of super PAC's:

A PAC with ties to Gov. Martinez reported spending $1.4 million on House and Senate races last month, with $4 of every $5 going for advertising and mailings. That was matched by a Democratic-leaning group called Patriot Majority New Mexico, which spent $1.3 million during October. More than three-fourths of that went for mailings and ads.

Reform New Mexico Now...reported raising $1.6 million last month and is targeting about two dozen legislative races. Its top donor was a national GOP group, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which contributed $715,000. Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Las Vegas Sands casino empire, gave $200,000...Two oil and natural gas companies, Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy Production, each gave $100,000.

Patriot Majority raised $619,500 during October, with most of that from labor unions. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees contributed $200,000, a political committee of the American Federation of Teachers gave $150,000 and a PAC of the Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters contributed $180,000.

As one of our Alligators, put it: "A new age has dawned and it isn't pretty. It will forever change the friendly and small-town climate of the Legislature--where friendships abound across the aisle and personal animosity may exist, but is held back from public view."
.
 JANICE'S LAST STAND

She started the underdog and she'll end that way, but she's also come a long way in terms of her personal confidence and ability on the stump. Here's ABQ GOP Congress candidate turning it on at an outdoor rally. She calls former ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan ('69-'89) to the stage and says she intends to honor how he handled the job--especially his effectiveness with constituent services.

But if the polls are right and they usually are when they show as big a gap as they do in this contest, it will be Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham in the victory circle week and trying "to honor" the Lujan way. She is related to Manuel.

WALKING IT HOME

Now it is so close for Grisham. Sure, the position of congresswoman may not be as celebrated as it once was, having been reduced to a constant chase for campaign dollars, but it's still the United States Congress. And it's about to be hers. No missteps into the weekend, just the release of a final TV spot touting her newspaper endorsements, some meet and greets and exhorting all to vote for the entire Democratic ticket. That's it. You take no chances. You practice a joyful acceptance speech that includes a good dose of humility. On Tuesday you walk this one home...and into history.

DEM TIDE?

He's partisan but veteran field operative Steve Cabiedes says the tide will come in for the Dems Tuesday.

We are now working for Democratic legislative candidates in far north areas of Bernalillo County, precincts that we usually don't go into. But the campaigns are telling us they are fine in the middle of the city so we are now up there. That means the districts of GOP State Reps Nate Gentry and Conrad James.

Cabiedes says if a Dem wave hits in the county Tuesday, James is especially at risk, Gentry could get wet and Dem state Senate candidate Lisa Curtis could benefit in her race against Mark Moores.

PILE ON TIME

She's never been one of them and now with a victory for her looking as likely as New Mexicans boycotting red chile, the conservative wing is piling on GOP US Senate standard bearer Heather Wilson:

Heather Wilson was always overrated as a candidate. She was a Domenici protege and state party favorite going back to her first term as a member of the House, and leaders in the state party kept trying to foist her on Republican voters. As a moderate Republican, she has never inspired a lot of enthusiasm from many rank-and-file Republicans and conservative independents, and as a reliable yes vote for bad Bush administration policies in the 2000s she embodied everything that most New Mexicans came to dislike about the national Republican Party...

In the rough and tumble of the increasingly hard-edged politics of the 21st century, the slogan isn't just to kick them when they're down but to kick them even harder.

HEATHER AND A HURRICANE

Popular New Mexico musician Al Hurricane was on the final days campaign trail for Heather Thursday. We've seen him in the last hours of previous Wilson efforts but this time was different--she joined the guitar playing pro on her banjo which she features in one of her closing TV spots.

We said yesterday she could play "Oh, Susana, don't you cry for me, I'm going to Rio Arriba with a banjo on my knee..." but a campaign operative pointed out the musical duo did not campaign in Rio Arriba County, but Taos, Las Vegas and Mora.

No word on what Al and Heather were playing here, but the song "I believe in Miracles" would be appropriate as she faces front runner Dem Martin Heinrich. Here's the Pearl Jam version.

A PRISTINE KITCHEN

Another take on the US Senate race. This one from Clara Hittel writing in the Santa Fe Reporter:

I don’t know about you, but I’ve become far too familiar with Heather Wilson’s pristine kitchen, and I’m not even sure it’s real. I have grown equally weary of Martin Heinrich’s need to convince us that he comes home to New Mexico “almost every weekend.”---We’ve all seen the current US Senate campaign ads, and I, for one, am more fascinated than ever before by the candidates’ presumptuous method of force-feeding us broad and flawed information in the midst of our favorite TV programs. They spend the majority of airtime tattling on each other like schoolchildren, declaring that the opponent is “too extreme” or has “the wrong priorities” for New Mexico. While slandering your competition is a proud American custom, it’d be nice if more of the ads actually elaborated on the issues in question. Aren’t politics supposed to be serious?

Politicians serious, Clara? Now that's what you would call the triumph of hope over experience.

RAISE YOUR HAND

And here's Dem Martin Heinrich down in Dona Ana asking the faithful to raise their hands if they've already voted. (Or was he asking how many would like a free lunch from his campaign?) Looks like a lot of them have. Over 50% of the statewide vote is expected to be cast before Tuesday's traditional election day.

We've been covering statewide campaigns a long time--and have helped run a number of them--so it caught our interest that Martin was down in Dona Ana with only days left in the campaign.

What that tells you is that he is more than comfortable that his base in big Bernalillo County is nailed down and he can get out of here and hype turnout in other parts of the state.

Not that Heinrich has had a cake walk. It's been a campaign that has tested him and Heather's last hours hard-driving effort could shave his margin of victory next Tuesday.

We look forward to working with the next US Senator from New Mexico. It will be tougher if it is Heather because of the hard edge she and her operatives have taken with us and sometimes other media during her lengthy career. But we will do it as we are committed to performing our little part to advance the state's interests in Washington during these critical years. For us, it's about progress, not personalities.

Martin's staff is more than competent and he seems to grow leaps and bounds as the years roll by. We know he can do the heavy lifting that we expect of him in Washington--and if he wins next week, we're all going to expect it.  His press operation was criticized this week for excluding an advocacy reporter from a right-wing think tank from a Heinrich campaign event, but that's par for the course on both sides these days.

We've called this the most important New Mexico US Senate election in our lifetime. And we still believe that. Both Wilson and Heinrich have broken with the Martinez administration and the conservative press and pledged an all-out battle to preserve our immense federal funding as New Mexico works to become less dependent on that spending in the years ahead.

We're proud of both of them for standing up for the people of this state.

UDALL FOR BARRERAS

Dem US Senator Tom Udall comes with a radio endorsement of Dem Valencia County House contender Andrew Barreras who is locked in a do-or die battle with Republican Kelly Fajardo.

We told you about Barreras being buried under an avalanche of more than 25 mail pieces from Reform NM Now PAC.  Hey, if Andrew survives, maybe his campaign supporters will buy him a paper shredder.

BYRD IN THE AIR

We were a wee bit surprised that northern Dem US Congressman Ben Ray Lujan passed on doing any TV spots this cycle, but he does have an overwhelming lead over GOP rancher Jeff Byrd of Tucumcari.

Byrd has struggled to raise money but he finally raised enough to put a couple of TV spots up, including this bio spot that shows him working on the ranch.

The Lujan district is heavy Dem but Byrd will run well in conservative San Juan County in the Four Corners and his late TV will mean more GOP voters around the district will know him.

If Lujan takes the win, he will begin his third two year term in the US House in January.

GAMBLING OX?

The mostly out-of-sight race for the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat goes wild and wooly and down and dirty.

First, Republican attorney Chis "Ox" Ocksrider implies in a TV spot that Karen Montoya, the Dem Bernalillo County Assessor who is his PRC foe, is under investigation by the FBI. But there is no confirmation of that or any other probe.

That hit on Karen earned Ocksrider a bristling radio and TV retort that implies he's a problem gambler who owns no property in his own name, has never been married and speculates that his gambling had something to do with a nonprofit being unable to keep its financial commitment to a charity. Let's take a look at the script in which "The Ox" is gored:

We can't afford to gamble with the Public Regulation Commission. We can't afford to elect Christopher Ocksrider, 47 years old, never married, a known gambler. Is that why he doesn't own any property. His home? Owned by his mother. Touted as one of Albuquerque's hot singles. Was gambling the real reason he left a nonprofit after discrepancies were discovered? We don't need another Jerome Block...

Kids, that's how the game of innuendo for innuendo is played.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Well, we're just about at the end of another long march down the campaign trail, and that means it's soon time for the Election Eve Special.

We'll kick it off at 5 p.m. Monday live on KANW 89.1 FM and streamed live at kanw.com. It will be a full hour of the best and most complete political analysis anywhere in the state. My guests will include former NM Dem Party Chairman John Wertheim, Dem Santa Fe State Rep. Brian Egolf, Republican veterans Bob Cornelius and Jamie Estrada. And we're pleased to have journalist Milan Simonich of Texas-New Mexico Newspapers Partnership on hand to keep all of them on the straight and narrow.

I am looking forward to having you with me Monday and again on Tuesday night on KANW-FM for our traditional Election Night coverage officially beginning at 6:30, but we will be on the air before then with east coast presidential results.

Our sponsors this year are PNM, Griffin and Associates, J.D. Bullington Government Relations, IATSE Studio Mechanics Local 480 and the Albuquerque Teachers Federation. Thanks much to all of them for their support of public radio.

Our first Election Night broadcast was in June of 1974 on KUNM-FM radio when we announced the first ABQ mayor's race under the then new mayor-council form of government. We started Election Night coverage at KANW in 1988 and have covered every primary and state election for them since. Station Manager Michael Brasher tells me our audio will be streamed on cable TV this year. We'll tell you more about that next week.

It's been quite a run, and we thank the station, manager Brasher, our many sponsors over the years and, of course, you, our listeners.

Back here with the Monday blog or before if events merit, and on Twitter as well. In the meantime, once again....

I'm Joe Monahan reporting to you from Albuquerque

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)
  
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
Not for reproduction without permission of the author    

• First independent polling out today on 2010 NM Governor's race: Dem Diane Denish Denish leads Republican Pete Domenici Jr., the son of the state’s long time Senator 45-40. She holds wider margins against the other R's.--48-30 over Allen Weh, 47-33 over Janice Arnold-Jones, and 46-32 against Susana Martinez and Doug Turner. More here.
  

Cheshire & Abraham
Big Bill’s polling numbers collapse and the Special Session of the NM Legislature to deal with the budget crisis is moved from today until Monday. Details and analysis on those big stories coming, but first this news:

The high-stakes, go for broke race for the 2010 GOP Guv nomination is bursting into flames again. Rick Abraham, chairman of the Bernalillo County Republican Party, has been threatened with police action by Whitney Cheshire, campaign manager for gubernatorial candidate Allen Weh, and Abraham in turn threatens to call the cops on her.

The dispute broke out when Cheshire asked Abraham about getting refunds for persons who paid up to $25 to go to Saturday's Bernalillo County GOP convention, but who did not attend. The convention selected delegates to the critical March state preprimary convention where the Guv candidates, including Weh, will ask delegates to give them official spots on the ballot.

In one email provided to us by the Alligators, Cheshire unloads on Abraham, saying county party incompetence caused Weh delegates to be turned away and refunds are due. She then rages:

Rick, I am sorry that your point of view prevents you from behaving rationally at this point. There are too many inaccuracies listed in your email for me to mess with right now but...if you ever threaten a member of my staff again, either verbally or physically, we won't just threaten to call the police, we will in fact file a criminal complaint against you. I would suggest, however, that for the next few days, you and ALL PARTIES WHO HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN VERBAL ALTERCATIONS take a deep breath and back off. We are tired of being abused by you and the staff on other campaigns and remind you that all of those attacks occurred in public as well.

The equally hot-tempered Abraham is captured in this retort to Cheshire:

My volunteers, staff and officers are tired of your "bully-style" tactics. We will no longer tolerate any more verbal or physical abuse by your campaign or candidate and we will notify the authorities if this abuse continues occur.

You will get any information I am REQUIRED TO give you when I am REQUIRED TO give it. I have been fair, tolerant and accommodating...and have been treated poorly and abusively. Since you are not big enough to apologize and want confrontation with me, I am going to do ONLY what I am required to do for you, nothing more!

The sensational emails come on the heels of a recent warning letter sent to all the GOP Guv candidates by GOP Chair Harvey Yates Jr. asking them to cool the negativity. Fat chance of that.

Weh already has a reputation for volatility. The email exchange by his campaign manger will serve only to reinforce it. The entire string of emails between Cheshire and Abraham can be seen here.

Meanwhile, Democrats who claim the R's will again destroy themselves in an orgy of cannibalism even as their chances of taking power grow, are looking more prescient with each burst of flame.

RICHARDSON POLLING COLLAPSE

If Republicans descend into fratricide, they may be blowing a good opportunity. The bottom has fallen out of the approval rating for Democratic Governor Bill Richardson with Public Policy Polling saying a mere 28% approve of the job he is doing and a stunning 63% of the voters disapprove. The firm offered a preview of the poll with additional details to come today.

This disastrous plunge makes Big Bill "one of the least popular Governors in the country," according to PPP. The crash comes after months of scandal headlines and after the Governor narrowly dodged a federal indictment. Also feeding the anti-Richardson frenzy is a terrible economy that has cost thousands of jobs here and an historic budget shortfall that the Governor and Legislature have been unable to resolve .

Will there be any surprises at Saturday's Democratic and Republican pre-primary nominating conventions? Can a nobody become a somebody? Can momentum be built and money be had by turning in an unexpected showing? The pre-primary meetings are watched avidly by the political insiders, but barely noticed by the general public, so there will be no huge bounces. Also, the stakes for the confabs went way down when the Legislature passed that law making it easier for congressional and statewide candidates to get on the June 3 primary ballot. If a contender fails to get the required 20% of his party's delegates, he simply has to submit additional petition signatures and they are on the ballot. But candidates who are chosen at the pre-primary are rewarded with the top ballot positions.

Hopefuls who get the 20% will have bragging rights; those who don't will dismiss the voting as coming from hard-core activists and not reflective of the electorate that will show up to vote June 3rd. We should also mention history. No candidate who has failed to get 20% at a party pre-primary has gone on to win the primary election. That is a precedent that could be ended this year, but it tells us that the eventual party nominees are more than likely to come from those who make the magic 20%.

With all of the above in mind, we head out to the track to handicap Pre-Primary 2008.

US SENATE R'S--We didn't have to wait for any convention voting for the gloating to start in the GOP US Senate primary. Rep. Steve Pearce has already sent out a news release saying he is on "the verge of a huge victory." Pearce's flock began blowing its own horn based on the results of the county conventions which send delegates to Saturday's pre-primary. Now he has to deliver more than a one or two point win over rival Heather Wilson to live up to his pre-game boasting. If he doesn't, Wilson will be crowing loudly and telling the tale to potential donors who are waiting to see the Saturday results. She trotted out endorsements from State Senators Ingle and Harden in a bid for late rural support. Meantime, Pearce says he will be nominated Saturday by a Hispanic Republican. Good moves by both sides, but most votes have been locked down for weeks.

US SENATE D'S--Tom Udall, leaving the Northern House seat to run for Senate, can spend his time polishing his pre-primary speech. Since Marty Chavez dropped out, the Dem deal has been done.

THIRD DISTRICT DEMOCRATS--Ben Ray Lujan has been called "frontrunner" so long in the race for the Democratic nomination for the Northern congressional seat that he could make it his middle name. But like any frontrunner, he will be expected to deliver. Rival Don Wiviott has been working hard and spending heavy. He is the only US House candidate in the state up on TV. He is expected to easily hit the 20% mark. If he goes substantially higher or pulls an upset by coming in first, Lujan would take a hit and perceptions of this race would change. Can a third candidate get the 20%? Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya thinks so and that he will be that candidate. Montoya needs a strong showing to slow the opinion that the Northern race is becoming a two man affair. Other contenders include Benny Shendo, Rudy Martin, and Jon Adams. A 20% showing by any of them would be a surprise and earn their candidacies a second look.

THIRD DISTRICT R's---Rio Rancho contractor Dan East and former Senator Domenici aide and attorney Marco Gonzales should both get over 20%. These appear to be two solid candidates. Unfortunately for them, this district is the most likely to stay in the Dem column come November.

EVEN MORE HANDICAPPING

SECOND DISTRICT D'S--Hobbs oilman Harry Teague is clobbering his opposition when it comes to money raising, but his campaign has spun expectations downward for his convention showing. They say their chief rival, Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, started organizing last summer, while Teague only started late last year. Teague is the Dem establishment favorite and a second place showing is not going to hurt him, but a first place showing will help McCamley. Of course, by saying McCamley will win, the Teague campaign has put pressure on him. If a third candidate were to get 20% in this race, it could be Al Kissling who was the Dem nominee in '06 and is running again.

SECOND DISTRICT R'S---This is the wild and crazy one. Money leaders and Lincoln County ranchers Aubrey Dunn, Jr. and Ed Tinsley are already nuking each other in mail pieces. Dunn's crowd says Tinsley is weak going into the pre-primary and that he might not manage to get 20% of delegate support, despite raising over $500,000 for his campaign, $200,000 of it from his own pocket. Tinsley's campaign is making no predictions, which means he may not be sure of his standing. If he doesn't get the 20%, it will be a setback, but his bank account will keep him in solid standing. T or C Realtor Earl Greer is confident he will be one of the top finishers. He needs to show strength to prevent this race from fast becoming a two man deal. The same goes for Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman.

FIRST DISTRICT DEMS--Money leader Martin Heinrich should have no problem taking the top spot at the pre-primary. Some of his operatives talked of keeping any other candidate from getting 20%, but it appears Michelle Lujan Grisham will breach that mark. Grisham needs the showing to keep alive her position as a favorite of party moderates in contrast with Heinrich's liberal support. The other contenders--Rebecca Vigil-Giron, Robert Pidcock and Jessica Wolfe--are not expected to make the 20% and plan to make the ballot via petitions. Still, Vigil-Giron is a wild card. Could she muster up late support to make the 20%?

FIRST DISTRICT R'S--The campaign between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro has turned bitter and become a proxy for the war between factions of the GOP. But this is really no contest. White has the endorsement of retiring Senator Domenici and other party establishment figures. The issue is whether Joe can get 20% of the delegates and score a moral victory.

The pre-primary voting will take place Saturday afternoon. We'll post the results for you as they come in.

E-mail us here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

A 5,400 word missive on the life and times of the state's most controversial and powerful political player landed on the Land of Enchantment Friday, shaking the terra firma with such force that observers immediately wondered if it will permanently alter the political landscape.

It certainly changed forever the life of Jay McCleskey and perhaps that of his benefactor, Governor Susana Martinez.

The anticipated article from the National Journal on McCleskey--known variously as the "Shadow Governor," the "Fifth Floor" or the "Karl Rove of New Mexico"--lived up to its hype.

It was a smash hit in the political community where it began circulating in thousands of email boxes and on Twitter and Facebook accounts in the early morning hours. It was a bomb with McCleskey and his acolytes who have held power with a tight grip for three years, not hesitating to use a toolkit packed with the implements of intimidation and deployed without restraint on anyone who dared blocked their path.

If there has been a man more feared or loathed in New Mexican politics in the past 50 years, we can't remember it. You could almost hear the sighs of relief from his many foes as he was finally unmasked but in a fair and temperate manner that hung its hat on the raw truth. And, oh my, how the truth hurts.

The article from the venerable, nonpartisan DC-based National Journal--read widely and deeply among America's political leadership and intelligentsia--was so exhaustive and left in its wake so many political and legal threads--that it was like someone kicked over a basketful of snakes. You could only watch with wonder and amusement as they slithered in all directions. It will be impossible for the Governor and McCleskey to put them all back in the basket. The best they can hope for is to contain the most poisonous among them.

It's true--as a number of readers pointed out--that much of what was revealed to the nation about McCleskey and the state of New Mexico politics has been reported or alluded to on this blog. Obviously, we're pleased to see our rigorous and mostly lonely blogging on McCleskey's questionable activities and the unprecedented accumulation of governmental power by a political consultant confirmed and vindicated.

But this piece by Chicago-based writer Daniel Libit was chock full of new revelations, exhaustively researched and reported and packaged in a form that delivered the high impact that only American journalism practiced at its highest levels is capable of.

Now about those snakes. Let's start chasing some...

THE DAMAGE DONE

Let's start with the obvious. The article was extremely damaging to Martinez on the national level (as well as McCleskey). That it centered on Republican discontent with McCleskey--not Democrats--is  the blow that knocked her to the canvas.

That it is revealed that she is essentially a figurehead who has ceded just about all of her power to McCleskey is another sharp right to the jaw. And her Sarah Palinesque aura--not quite knowing all she should--completed the definition of her as a poseur--a pretender--not anywhere near vice-presidential. Heck, not even gubernatorial. The charade has ended. If she wants back in, she has mucho work ahead of her.

Even if the casual reader did not delve deeply into the content, they were greeted with this damning headline:

"The Man Who Discovered Susana Martinez Could Also Be Her Downfall"

That was surely enough to catch the attention of Governor Christie and his aides and that of Senator Rand Paul or any of the other would-be Republican presidential nominees. It also raised eyebrows and more questions for the national press gaggle that specializes in all things presidential. The story was widely distributed by national reporters via social media.

Suddenly, a small packet of pixels had Susana's place on the list of VP contenders dropping as fast as a penny thrown off the Empire State Building. She went into free fall and if she's going to reverse it, someday she will have to do something about her McCleskey problem. It's simply too bothersome for a possible president or his operatives to deal with.

Unlike her, the Prez contenders aren't joined at the hip with McCleskey. Susana would need a surgeon practiced in separating Siamese Twins to rid herself of Jay. But in Washington, dropping troublesome operatives is done as casually as bursting a pimple on a nose.

Many of you in the bleacher seats are saying, "So what, Joe?" Susana never really has had a chance to be on a national ticket. It's a fantasy manufactured by Jay."

You have a point if you feel that way, but if Susana doesn't share your view and believes in life after Santa Fe--and really has fire in the belly for some kind of slot on the national scene--she is going to have to do something about McCleskey. He's now so radioactive in DC that they'll grab for their Geiger counters when he rolls down K Street.

ROT AT THE TOP

Susana's national aspirations--fantastical or not--are not her immediate concern. What is, of course, is her forthcoming campaign for re-election next November. This article lighted up the skies far brighter than any of the five Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls have thus far and it's an open question if any of them will effectively use it and the revelatory information it contains to break out of the pack.

Gary King was first to react, condemning the McCleskey behavior detailed in the article as "unethical" and as proof that Martinez "had abdicated" her office to a "vindictive" McCleskey.

Dem hopeful Allan Webber dubbed the revelations in the National Journal as The Rot at the Top.

Lawrence Rael chimed in: "(It's) time for New Mexicans to look. . . closer at the man behind the myth of Martinez."

State Sen. Linda Lopez came with this:

Thanks to the article, we have sources close to her operation detailing how Jay McCleskey is empowered to dictate policy, influence contracts, and keep millions of dollars in dark money well-cloaked and at an arm’s length from the governor, who can, politically, legally and conveniently feign ignorance.

State Senator Howie Morales, also a Dem Guv candidate, did not make a statement on the explosive article.

Attorney General King also said the conventional wisdom that Martinez is unbeatable was trashed by the damning article. Maybe, but that's going to have to be put to the test. And it's going to take a lot of money--a commodity about as plentiful in the Democratic camp as snowballs in Palm Springs.

THE LEGAL PERIL

Andrea Goff

King did not call for a formal investigation of McCleskey's questionable handling of campaign money, the Achilles Heel that now seems to ache for attention. Maybe that's because there's good reason to believe there is an active federal investigation underway on that topic as well as one on the down and dirty lease deal for the Downs at ABQ racino.

Regarding the latter, former Martinez fund-raiser Andrea Goff dropped a bombshell in her interview.

She revealed that she received incriminating text messages from McCleskey after her father-in-law, Buster Goff, joined with other members of the State Fair Commission and voted to delay approving the controversial 25 year Downs racino lease.

"Buster screwed us. . . .He was supposed to pass it." McCleskey said in one text.

Buster Goff later switched his vote and the current Downs owners won the lease over a competitor.

That text and others that Goff turned over to the FBI sent our Legal Beagles barking. To them it was  damning evidence against McCleskey and meant that there indeed had been bid-rigging.

To the Beagles:

The text messages Goff  turned over to the FBI are direct evidence of wrongdoing and are admissible in court. McCleskey's own words implicate not just himself, but through his use of the word "us" the other conspirators in the rigging of the deal. . . .McCleskey's writing that Buster Goff was "supposed to pass it"--is proof of the rigging, and "Buster screwed us" of the conspiracy to rig. 

McCleskey also linked the reason that Goff needed to approve the deal to the impact his failure to do so would have on William Windham, the Martinez campaign donor and an owner of the Downs. That's evidence that the deal was a quid pro quo which is necessary for the prosecution of some but not all federal corruption charges.

McCleskey also discussed ways to conceal additional campaign contributions that Windham attempted to make, but did not because he did not have a vehicle in place to conceal the funds from public scrutiny (conspiracy to commit money laundering, efforts to derive personal benefit, wire fraud, etc).

In response to Goff the Governor's office said: "Andrea Goff is a disgruntled former consultant who is no longer affiliated with the governor, and her wild-eyed accusations have no credibility."

Perhaps a year or so ago that statement would look as strong as reinforced steel. Not today. Not when everyone can see the blood in the water and the steel looking like tin.

MORE LEGAL BEAGLES

We can't certify the certitude of the Legal Beagles, but their barking is noteworthy. Here's some more:

McCleskey's efforts to convince Andrea Goff to work on his behalf "off the books" could be used as pattern and practice evidence to conceal information from disclosure (reinforcing the money laundering). The texts--because they come from McCleskey--are as good from an evidentiary standpoint as if Andrea Goff had been wearing a wire.

The texts revealed by the National Journal from McCleskey to Goff reinforce the collusion in the administration that was depicted in the widely covered Downs emails. That is something the local media has not done. 

While the Feds can take years to bring charges, this article confirms that there is a strong chance that it will eventually happen. Corruption cases are often filed many years after the crimes were committed.

Thanks, Beagle.

JUST AN ADVISER

What stands out in the aftermath of all this is McCleskey's humble public moniker as the Governor's "political adviser."

He is not a government employee and has no official power but he has wielded more of it than anyone--seemingly even the woman elected to the office. He didn't get the nickname "Shadow Governor" for nothing. (Did you read the part where he sets up shop in a little anteroom next to Susana?)

But what of the real Governor--the one who took the oath of office that cold January 1 in 2011? She's an ambitious politician who unhesitatingly hitched her wagon to that of Jay's and now has to do some unhitching. Whether she has come to that conclusion or not, just about everyone else under the sun has. For our codependent Governor, the day of reckoning for the deal she struck with her Svengali draws near. Even Nixon had to dump Haldeman and Ehrlichman.

Will there be a breakup of this symbiotic political duo? It depends. Did the Governor read that National Journal article like a partisan or like the former District Attorney she is? We know she has to be fretting over what the piece did to her political standing among national donors and the national media when it comes to the VP prize. But does she feel threatened by something much more troubling?

There's the ABQ Downs racino wheeling and dealing. Then there's the millions of dollars that have flowed through her SusanaPAC, her re-election campaign and the 2012 Reform NM Now PAC. All of them were led by McCleskey who received hefty commissions from them and who--according to the National Journal--appears to be pulling in some $300,000 a year, not counting advertising commissions.

That's an astounding sum in a little state like ours. And the spending and expense records of these entities may be ripe for exploitation not only by her political opponents but by government and media investigators (We'll save the "NM Competes," the dark money nonprofit entity for tomorrow).

No matter how tight Jay and Susana may be, they are not husband and wife. If and when she sees that her survival interests conflict with his, will she just swallow hard and stay the course? Or will she start to slowly oar away?

Susana Martinez has needed Jay McCleskey in an almost desperate way, so much so that in the words of Harvey Yates, he was allowed to assume extra constitutional power. Now the worm has turned and McCleskey needs Martinez as much as she needs him--not just for a meal ticket--but for protection from the pack of wolves that has taken up residence outside of his "Fifth Floor"office.

THE FLOODGATES

The floodgates are now open in the NM Republican Party. It was not lost on anyone that all the named critics in the National Journal piece were prominent Republicans--and most prominently--former NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates. And then there was that diss of McCleskey by current NM GOP Chairman John Billingsley. The argument by the McCleskey faction that it was a handful of disgruntled R's was not convincing. An untold number cower in fear.

The outing of McCleskey dilutes the potion he has relied on to keep everyone in line. That potion is equal parts fear and intimidation. Now with the national media--and we assume law enforcement--on high alert for any McCleskey mischief, disgruntled Republicans (and Democrats) have less reason to remain closed mouth in their dislike for the current regime. Not that Martinez is going to draw a Republican primary foe next year, but that prospect has gone from unimaginable to something like highly unlikely.

POSTSCRIPTS....

The perceived invincibility of what one of our readers dubbed "The Machine" has been dented--big time. How much so we will see by the aforementioned actions of GOP critics of Martinez and through any increased bravado by the Dem Guv candidates, at the next legislative session and any further inquires by the national media and law enforcement.

Several readers wondered if we will now get an investigation of allegations that law enforcement has been used to run checks on the license plates of political opponents as well as using the NCIC data base for political purposes. We know it's a story that one TV station was looking into....

Yes, it was strange that McCleskey posed for a series of pictures for the magazine article. The supposed #1 rule of a political consultant is not to become the story....

The author of the National Journal piece--Daniel Libit--was born and raised in ABQ. He graduated from ABQ Academy...

It's Election Eve in New Mexico and that means it's time for the last round of analysis and predictions at our traditional round table at KANW 89.1 FM. That's at 5 p.m. today (The table really is kind of round).

On Tuesday night--Primary Election Night--we return to the same microphones beginning at 6:30 p.m. to call the results and provide the most in-depth analysis in the state.

This marks our 24th consecutive year in the broadcast booth on election nights for the public radio station. We hope to have you with us for all the excitement and final vote tallies.

Our radio programs will also be streamed from the KANW web site so if you're outside the ABQ/Santa Fe listening area, you can join us at 5 p.m. today by Clicking Here and again tomorrow night at 6:30 p.m.

We have an expert panel lined up for today's pre-game show. Former NM Democratic Party Chairman John Wertheim, Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino and former ABQ City Councilor Miguel Gomez will be joined by Republican consultant Bob Cornelius and journalist Rob Nikolewski of Capitol Report New Mexico in Santa Fe.

These analysts are all known for their "tell it like it is" approach to state politics. As a result their opinions are sought after from both sides of the political aisle. It's a broadcast at 5 p.m. today you won't want to miss.

OUR SPONSORS

Thanks much to our sponsors of this year's radio coverage. They make it all possible:

 PNM, the Albuquerque Teacher's Federation, JD Bullington Government Affairs, The Garrity Group (public relations) and the law firm of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP.

FIRST BIG PREDICTION
Donisthorpe
You don't have to wait until 5 p.m. today for a major prediction. Veteran Republican analyst and pollster Bruce Donisthorpe of Manzano Strategies comes with an Election Eve thunder maker:

Joe, I am calling the race for the ABQ Democratic congressional nomination for Eric Griego. After the party's pre-primary convention in March, you quoted me as saying, "It is Griego's to lose." I am still of that view. Based on the polling we did for your blog on May 22 and my turnout model for this election, I believe Griego will emerge as the nominee tomorrow night.

This will be due to his ability to rally the large liberal base in the party and little to do with the last minute negative fireworks. That will have an impact, but the overall lay of the land points to a Griego nomination.

Bully for you, Bruce. If you're right, you'll be placed upon a polling pedestal for all to praise. If you're wrong, look out for the rotten eggs and tomatoes while you're up there.

Donisthorpe's prediction is significant because he has polled for us (and other clients) for over five years, using automatic phone technology combined with excellent voter lists and scientific methodology.

He nailed the 2008 congressional race, with his poll showing Martin Heinrich heading for a big victory over Republican Darren White. In 2010, he was the first public pollster to break the news that Susana Martinez had pulled ahead of Allen Weh and would be that year's Guv nominee.

His May 22 poll for us in this year's Dem congressional race had Griego in a statistical dead-heat with Michelle Lujan Grisham. Marty Chavez was lagging. Days later the ABQ Journal poll--conducted by the estimable Brian Sanderoff--came with the same outcome--a dead heat.

Donisthorpe, who was a top aide to Republican NM Congressman Joe Skeen and GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers, will be an on-air contributor on KANW tomorrow night, offering returns and analysis in key races across the state.

It's another great reason to be with us on the radio for Primary Election Night 2012.

THE COSS CASE

Santa Fe Mayor Dave Coss appears to have gotten a big break in his battle with Carl Trujillo for the Dem nomination for the Santa Fe area state House seat being vacated by Speaker Ben Lujan. But it was not anything Coss did.

The new Reform New Mexico Now super PAC is obviously formed to help Governor Martinez and  is funded primarily by oil companies based in Artesia. One TV newser calls it the "wild step-sister of SusanaPac." The same oil companies have also given money to SusanaPAC, run by Martinez svengali Jay McCleskey. The PAC, with a cash kitty of $205,000 sent out a mailer in support of Trujillo, saying he will be a reformer of public schools.

Trujillo has no control over the group, but the fact that Susana is now being associated with his campaign may doom him. Coss supporters are going for a final-hours kill, with Santa Fe State Rep. Brian Egolf among those leading the charge:

Governor Martinez...is taking unprecedented steps to defeat (Coss)...We need David Coss in the legislature to make sure we don't give the governor a blank check. Some of the governor's Big Oil campaign backers just endorsed Carl Trujillo. The Big Oil front group--Reform New Mexico Now PAC--is funded by the same oil companies that are working to roll back our most important air and water protections. The governor's Big Oil cronies would rather see Carl Trujillo in office, not David Coss. We can't afford to give Susana Martinez a rubber stamp legislature...

This might be just the tonic Coss needed. He's been struggling because of concerns over whether he can be effective as both Santa Fe's part-time Mayor and as a legislator.

Coss and a slew of other Dem candidates who saw the PAC get involved in their campaigns filed an ethics complaint with the AG and Sec. of State to get as much juice out of this late news as possible.

Eyebrows have also been raised over the role of Speaker Ben Lujan's son in the race. Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan has given money and gone door to door for Coss in what has looked to some like a revenge move. Trujillo nearly beat Lujan's father in the 2010 Dem primary.

Trujillo tried to get the monkey off his back with this Sunday statement:

Sometimes we get support from organizations who may have agendas that are likely to be at odds with our interests...Reform New Mexico.. sent out their mailers without our involvement or approval, and we don’t know their reasons. Perhaps they have their own genuine, legitimate concerns about Mr. Coss, because while David Coss and I, as fellow Democrats, may not be that far apart in our specific stands on specific issues, we seem to have very different views about the political process when it comes to fairness, openness and transparency.

Trujillo, who was not far behind Coss in insider polling recently, may have been shot in the foot at the last minute by Susana's groupies. He had established himself as an independent Dem, calling Coss and Lujan "the machine." But if this last minute development means he's perceived as an agent for the R's who might help tip the balance of power in the House, Trujillo may be in for another close call Tuesday night, but not a space in the winner's circle.

OILING IT UP

The oil-financed PAC group is also playing in the Dem primary of conservative Senator John Arthur Smith of Deming. He faces a challenge from retired PNM electrician Larry Martinez of Lordsburg. The oil super PAC's radio ad praises Smith for being an eduction reformer, while attacking Martinez for being a captive of the education unions.

Smith, chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, might want to say to the oil-financed PAC: "Don't do me any favors."

Smith is expected to win his primary and the general election and will face a Senate full of progressives as well as some moderates who have grown weary of his non-stop conservatism even as the public indicates it wants a somewhat more activist agenda from Santa Fe. This backing from a PAC associated with Martinez is not going to help him calm down segments of of the Senate caucus.

If the oil-backed group is trying to do Susana's dirty work in Dem races so she can keep her fingerprints off of them and not have Dem voters know what she's up to, all we can say is that we've spotted the elephant in the room---and it looks just like Susana Martinez.

LATE BREAKING AND EXCLUSIVE

Here are what the top sources in New Mexico politics are saying on key Dem Senate races this Primary election eve:

--State Senator David Ulibarri looks like a goner. Attorney Maxine Velasquez is positioned for the win.

--State Rep. Eliseo Alcon is in trouble. Challenger Billy Moore could pick him off

---State Sen. Lynda Lovejoy is getting a tough challenge from Bennie Shendo. It could tip either way

--State Senators John Arthur Smith, Pete Campos and Richard Martinez are appearing safe from their primary challengers

--State Senator Phil Griego's race has tightened at the end. A close race is expected.

--Rep. Bill O'Neill will coast to a primary victory in ABQ's North Valley

No guarantees, but that's what the top guns say it looks like.

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We take advertising from political candidates, but we don't donate to them. We remind you of that because when we put predictions and the like up, we sometimes get asked whether we have donated. We don't.

SHOWDOWN IN CLOVIS

The Santa Fe Wall-Leaners, Alligators and Insiders are predicting that Governor Martinez may very well suffer a serious political setback tomorrow night.

They see Clovis rancher Pat Woods--publicly opposed by Martinez--as squeaking by Martinez-supported Angie Spears in the GOP primary for the state Senate seat held by retiring Sen. Clint Harden. They are basing their outlook in part on the brutal campaigns, but mostly on history. One of them at the Capitol says:

Joe, Look at the history of this district.  For decades it has been represented by independent-minded senatos. Democrat Johnny Morrow had it then Republicans Pat Lyons and now Clint Harden. All of them have been east siders with a mind of their own. Woods follows in that tradition, Spears does not because of her backing by Martinez and the go-for-the-jugular campaign that her political advisers have run.

That's one of the more persuasive arguments we've heard in favor of Woods, but the attacks on him have been absolutely brutal and continue until the last minute. Suspense is the final adjective to describe the Showdown in Clovis. No one will be sure until tomorrow night.

(We have special staffing in place to cover the Showdown in Clovis).

THE POWER AND THE MIGHT

All the power and might of the New Mexican governorship has been corralled by Jay McCleksey in an effort to avoid the first major political embarrassment for the popular Republican Governor.

For example, there is this flyer condemning rancher Woods for taking $1.7 million in  federal agricultural subsidies. But this might be the overreach of overreaches in the agriculture-heavy east side. A Woods supporter comes with the rebuttal:

Good luck, Governor,  on getting support from the agricultural community again. Agriculture is a huge part of New Mexico’s economy and the government subsidies that farmers collect go right into that economy. They also pay taxes. The nimrods who put this mailer together don’t know much when they say that Pat will promote even more subsides. Farm subsidies are a federal program authorized by the US Congress.  

How are these subsidies any different from federal funds that come into this state for the national labs and military bases? For that matter, how are they different from all the money that Jay McCleskey takes out of Susana PAC?

Looking at the PAC financial report since June 2011, I add up close to $150,000 paid directly to McCleskey. Then there is the money he gets by donating PAC funds to candidates. He then works as their consultant and gets that money and more back into his business...

Like we said, this campaign has been absolutely brutal and there is no way Susana gains anything--even if Angie wins tomorrow night.

Insiders report that Angie was emotional a recent forum where she was accused of mud slinging. You have to feel for her. She and her family are well-respected members of the community and she could never have anticipated she would become the focal point of one the most contested GOP senate primaries in modern history. (A Spears supporter says she was peppered with questions, but was not emotional).

This gubernatorial decision to go so overboard in a GOP primary will be long-remembered as one of the great overreaches in state politics. How could Susana let Jay go after the federal agricultural subsides?

And when has a Guv's top political aide become a statewide issue? And Jay is. Woods--in his own version of the overreach--has bought time on the statewide airwaves of KRQE-TV to run his anti-McCleskey TV ad. All this for a GOP primary in Clovis that will attract less than 5,000 voters. Clearly, Pat Woods is determined to take down McCleskey as much as he is Spears--even if he dies trying.
 
Folks, things are so stirred up in Clovis, an F-5 tornado out there couldn't compete.

KEY RACES

The Showdown in Clovis and other key legislative primaries from around the state, courtesy of newsman Milan Simonich. And The AP comes with this legislative primary preview.

SO MUCH MORE

So much to cover now and so little time. Readers help out as in this dispatch from an Alligator who points out that Clovis is far from the only GOP primary race where intra-party warfare is going on. They tune in on one that has been rarely mentioned:

...It's not only going on in Clovis, it's also going on in the Albuquerque area. The same "outside forces" working in Clovis recruited and are helping to fund a primary opponent against ABQ GOP west side State Rep. Tom Anderson.  

This "outside force" also has sent out hit pieces about Tom. And the "outside force" has ensured that Tom is not able to raise the necessary funds to respond...Tom's opponent--Peggy Muller Aragon--is the wife of ABQ attorney Robert Aragon who Martinez appointed to the state Board of Finance.

Robert Aragon, the son of former Dem State Rep. Bennie Aragon, is a former Dem, ( We're told he changed his registration to Republican earlier this year). He's been a longtime supporter of Republican Martinez and was removed as a Dem Party ward chairman because of his GOP politics.

And was that Dominic Aragon we saw as one of the officers of the now hyper-controversial Reform NM Now PAC? Sure was. Dominic is the nephew of Robert. A few years ago he ran in the Dem primary for the state House seat now held by Rep. Moe Maestas. Dominic is still calling himself a Democrat, but it is Uncle Robert calling the shots for his nephew.

GETTING SLOPPY?

Sometimes it's because you are juggling too many balls. Sometimes it's because the money and power make you sloppy. You be the judge of this one:

Reform New Mexico Now has the same address on Uptown Boulevard in Albuquerque used by Martinez's Susana PAC, as well as the governor's political adviser, Jay McCleskey. 

A Dem campaign operative sends this list of candidates they say are being supported in the primary by Reform NM Now PAC:

RNMN has sent out mailers in at least five Democratic primary elections (candidates supported by McCleskey/Martinez are in bold):

David Coss vs. Carl Trujillo  in northern Santa Fe County
Jack Sullivan vs. Phil Griego Santa Fe County, Parts of Bernalillo, San Miguel, Lincoln, Torrance
Larry Martinez vs. John Arthur Smith
Genevieve Jackson vs. George Munoz
Eliseo Alcon vs. Billy Moore
Eleanor Chavez vs. James Taylor and Michael Padilla in Bern CO

So the super PAC--linked to Susana and Jay--is also helping Democrats? But the Guv's operatives are attacking Republican Pat Woods in Clovis for his past donations to Dem candidates? What's wrong
with that picture.

BALDERAS VS. HEINRICH

Lovefest doesn't even begin to describe it. Last night's one and only TV debate between Dem US Senate contenders Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas had the two young stars of their party acting like they were out on a first date--they were so polite to each other that they almost crossed the line to obsequious. But in the end they both pretty much vindicated themselves when it comes to logic, reasoning and the intellectual ability to serve in the US Senate.

Self-described underdog Balderas gained just by being on the same KOAT debate stage with the ABQ congressman. There was no deer in the headlights demeanor from the Wagon Mound native, but a calm aura of a...well....state auditor.

Heinrich was his usual self--knowledgable and robotic. He is the presumed winner of tomorrow; night's primary, but he has room to improve before he faces off with presumed GOP Senate nominee Heather Wilson. But Wilson is prone to over emoting and the mechanical Heinrich should match up well. Also, unlike other Wilson opponents, he will not be taken out on TV for being ill-informed or fearful.

On the issues, Hector and Martin hit the standard Dem themes--protect Social Security and Medicare, improve education, etc.  While hardly every disagreeing with one another, they frequently bashed Wilson before the statewide audience--no doubt to the delight of Dems on both sides of this primary.

The only moment of tension came when a questioner tried to throw Heinrich off his game on funding for the national labs and state defense bases. Which would he cut if forced to make a choice? Heinrich hung tough saying this was a "false choice" and that he was going to fight for the federal funding and work to have the labs pursue future missions that were worthy of receiving the funding.

That's the right answer for a state increasingly nervous about possible big fed budget cuts, but Wilson was surely taking notes as it was President Obama's budget that recently caused layoffs at Los Alamos national labs.

From the beginning Balderas has been hamstrung by his ambitions for future office. He has not attacked Heinrich for fear of losing and knocking himself permanently off the political stage. His performance last night insures that Heinrich--if elected to the Senate--is not going to hold a grudge, but it also means Balderas basically wrote off any chance of winning. That will be used against him in future runs in the Dem Party when his rivals are sure to say they "will fight harder" than Hector.

But Balderas, an attorney and 38, has come a long way from his nervous Nellie look when he was thrust into the race for state auditor six years ago. He has done his homework and any school teacher will tell you that usually means higher grades.

Like we said, Heinrich, 40, did well but this is a large load being placed on the shoulders of a two-term congressman. Voters generally seem to like the first look they have taken of him, but his
presence last night suggested that voters will want to take a longer, deeper look before giving their final blessing. That's why in this Demorcatic state Heather Wilson still lives.

The full one hour debate is here

ANOTHER TAKE

Reader Joe Campos came with a take on the debate that was not without support in its caustic outlook:

Must have been one of the most boring debates! Martin referred to his opponent as "Hector the Auditor" and Hector kept on using the word "appalling." Did you get anything else out of this debate?

SOWARDS TV

Greg Sowards, the gadfly conservative from Las Cruces challenging former ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson, comes with last-minute TV attacking her for--among other things--her 2008 vote to bail out the banks.

If Sowards had gone on the tube for a couple of weeks instead of a couple of days, we might have had an interesting race. As it is, Wilson is polling at 66% in the ABQ Journal poll. She will have some damage to clean up Wednesday morning, but this primary season has been somewhat of a gift for Wilson who gets squeamish when having to deal with the radical fringe of the GOP.

PRC CASH COWS

A late court ruling gave publicly financed ABQ Dem Public Regulation Commission candidates Karen Montoya and Cynthia Hall an extra $60,000 in matching funds to spend. That's in addition to the $30,000 they received when they qualified for public funding, They are flooding the airwaves with last minute TV and radio in an effort to overtake Al Park, who has spent a whopping $150,000 on the contest. He did not take public funding. Here's one of Montoya's TV spots hitting Park, courtesy of the matching funds. Will the last minute money be enough for Montoya--who was running second to Park in our May 22 poll--to pull an upset?

WIENER WORLD

Any broadcaster worth his salt is pulling for a good showing for GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Wiener on Primary Election Night. Cold you imagine if Wiener, under siege since he was caught up in a sex "scandal" last month, actually comes close or even wins his primary challenge over Lonnie Talbert? Talk about a ratings grabber.

Realistically, Wiener was probably taken out when the media sensationalized that photo of Wiener surrounded by a bevy of Phillipino beauties, with the implication that they were hookers in the notorious red light district that was in the area Wiener was visiting. He says he was there with his fiancee. It was a knuckle headed move by the colorful and controversial Wiener, but he fights on--hoping to give all of us on radio and TV something to talk about tomorrow.

And maybe he's on to a little something,

His primary opponent for the mainly NE Heights commission seat is businessman Lonnie Talbert who mailed the flyer posted here (click to enlarge) but had to apologize for wrongfully attacking Wiener. The ABQ Journal printed Talbert's retreat over his statement that Wiener voted in 2008 to buy a downtown ABQ office building and wasted taxpayers money in the process. The problem? Wiener was not even on the commission at the time.

Wiener calls it "outrageous" that he was wronged in a last-minute mailer, but he doesn't stop there. He says that Talbert has made his personal life an issue by running the sensational headlines from Wiener's Philippines excursion in his campaign lit. He says what is good for the Wiener is good for the Talbert. Here he is firing away:

Lonnie Talbert went to court on Jan 31st, 2012  to modify his Child Support Payment agreement.On that date he made a pleading (matter of Public Record) stating that he was unemployed (that he had been "laid off") and asked to have his child support lowered. Only weeks later he opened a campaign account and deposited $50,000 of his own money into this race. he is trying to BUY this election using $50,000 of his own money--instead of taking care of his child support from his first failed marriage!

Wiener sent court documents showing that Talbert had indeed asked for a reduction in child support.

Wiener also points out what he calls Talbert's "job-hopping in the past dozen years, listing eight jobs Talbert has had since Dec. 2001. His latest position is listed by Wiener as a "business development action coach."

No Dem is running for the seat so the winner of the GOP primary goes on the commission. And it seems even if Wiener's political days end up being over, Lonnie Talbert has the potential to be almost as colorful--and maybe controversial.

A CANDIDATE PLEA

And the email keeps coming, some with an air of desperation. Santa Fe County Commissioner and northern Democratic Public Regulation Commission candidate Virginia Vigil, writes:

Please review the email that summarizes a robo call that came from a phone number 505.216.6900.  I also received this call! The robo call falsely states if one selects me for the PRC, that I supported Jim Hall, a Republican for the state legislature in Los Alamos. As you know, County Commission's submit a replacement for Legislators when there is a vacancy.  Jim Hall's name was submitted by the Los Alamos County Council and appointed by Governor Martinez! Neither I nor any other members of Santa Fe County Commission ever considered Jim Hall.  How does one reverse a lie like this?

Reversing a lie is never easy, Virginia. We find it helps if you just keep telling the truth.

As for that Dem PRC race, our May 22 poll showed Santa Fe County Clerk Valerie Espinoza as the leader. We'll track it for you tomorrow night.

See you on the radio at 5 p.m. today.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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