Wednesday, January 20, 2010Bay State Bombshell Rocks NM: Game Changer For Our Guv Race As Di Unloads On Pete Jr., Plus: Opening Day In Santa Fe; Bill's Last Hurrah
Senator-elect Brown
 The Bay State Bombshell sent political shrapnel flying coast to coast last night and some of it struck the Sweeney Convention Center near downtown Santa Fe where the elite of the state Democratic Party was gathered for its annual legislative dinner marking the opening day of the 2010 session. Taking the podium as news spread of the Dem Senate loss in Massachusetts, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, the all but certain Dem nominee for Governor, took an unexpected and some argued a panicky strike at Pete Domenici Jr., the latest and biggest name entrant in the five way race for the GOP Guv nomination.Denish did not mention the 50 year old ABQ lawyer by name but there was no mystery that she was shooting at the son of the legendary ex-US Senator Pete Domenici. Declared Di: We can't afford a Governor who has a name but no ideas or priorities! Forgive us if a word or two of that quote is out of place. We were in the back of the center getting sleepy and ready to count some sheep when Di dropped her jaw dropper. Di's words, uttered only moments after Scott Brown's stunning US Senate upset over Dem Martha Coakley, soon became evident to Blackberry watching Dems and set off breathless analysis among Alligators of every stripe attending the confab. And with good reason. When she singled out Domenici, Denish was predicting him as the eventual winner of the GOP nomination and her general election foe. And she also may have been signaling that her camp was stunned by the landslide Brown scored with independent voters. She may have felt the need to respond because the indys also hold the keys to the Governor's office here. Last night's Massachusetts Miracle for the first time called into question the comfort level enjoyed by the Denish camp. DIVINING DI  One veteran state Senator chastised Denish for singling out Domenici.She should just let the Republicans fight it out among themselves. He is not necessarily their nominee and it only helps him when she goes after him. I think there was a bit of panic there... But others said the Massachusetts results were so consequential that Denish had no choice but to start to frame the race. Another Senator warned that Domenici Jr. is the most likely to raise big money because of the Brown US Senate win. "His father (former US Senator Pete Domenici) can work the phones for him. Republican money across the nation is going to loosen up and it is going to find its way into our Governor's race," said the Senator. Denish has $2.5 million in the bank, but if a national GOP feeding frenzy develops that amount could look like spare change. NM AND THE WHITE HOUSE The Brown victory was a body blow to the White House political operation. More of my Alligators were on the attack last night, saying if Governor Richardson had been given a job by Obama, making Denish Governor by appointment, then the dangerous trend that seems to be developing for Dems and perhaps Denish would have been softened here. They were again urging Obama to get Richardson out of here and give Denish the advantage of the incumbency or else risk giving the Guv's office to the R's this year and the state's five presidential electoral votes to the GOP in 2012. HER FIRST INSTINCT  Denish's first instinct in the wake of the East Coast Democratic debacle seemed to be to veer right to curry favor with those jumpy independents. She issued this statement to mark the opening day of the 30 day legislative session:...The primary focus this legislative session must be to create an economic environment that fosters new jobs, new opportunities and sound fiscal policies. That means balancing the budget--not on the backs of regular families--but by making government smaller and more efficient. Instead of debating which tax increase to embrace, legislators must focus their attention on which reform measures to implement...Major reform proposals must be debated and passed long before the legislature gives any consideration to raising taxes on regular families. But progressive Dems are arguing if Denish caters too much to the right it will make her appear more vulnerable, not strong, and dampen enthusiasm for her among the liberal base. Fortunately for Di, she faces no primary opponent.But for now the promise of a mundane Governor's race is gone. R's are justifiably energized. REPUBLICAN ROAR  While we supped with the elite of the New Mexican Democratic establishment, our Republican Alligators were feeding us appetizing developments about that now even more important race for the GOP nod for Governor. They report that some top Republicans are now quietly moving to persuade Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez to drop her Guv bid and run for attorney general. This follows talk of similar discussions to have R Guv hopeful Janice Arnold-Jones also step aside ad run for secretary of state. Allen Weh and Doug Turner round out the GOP field. The R's still have no candidates for the down ballot races.But clearing the field for Pete Jr. may be easier said than done. His somewhat lethargic maiden speech Sunday did not send waves of excitement pulsating through Republican ranks. And there is still resentment that his famous father is trying to crown his son. However, the Massachusetts upset may overcome those objections. Certainly Diane Denish seems to think so, even if it is questionable whether she should be saying so quite so loudly. OPENING DAY  Big Bill acknowledged the elephant in the room when he gave his final State-of-the-State speech as New Mexico's chief executive, but he quickly shunted it aside in favor of a long trip down nostalgia road, recounting a litany of his accomplishments. The dire straits of the state's finances seemed to demand more attention than Bill was willing to give them, but Richardson, the original "can-do" Governor, doesn't relish taking about what can't be done, which, in the end, will be the fate of this 30 day legislative session. (Speech transcript here. Complete video here.)At under 35 minutes, it was, as promised, Bill's shortest state-of-the-state. Applause didn't eat up much of the clock either because there was little to applaud as the 26th man to hold the governorship since statehood spoke of the worse economic downturn in our lifetimes. Richardson's middle of the road approach--cut spending and raise some taxes temporarily--reflects the consensus thinking in the New Mexican electorate as well as the intellectual classes, but the devil is in the details. Out here in the peanut gallery, we want permanent cuts that shore up state finances not just for a year, but for many years and we want those cuts written in stone before we accept the new taxes that we realize are necessary to provide services to one of the most impoverished populations in America. GOOD OL' ANALYSIS  Former State Senate President Pro Tem Richard Romero, reflecting current thinking, told public television he senses that the major tax increase we are looking at is on the gross receipts levy. A quarter cent boost would take in $100 million of the $200 million in annual taxes that the Guv and key lawmakers want. Romero said he is counting Senate noses and it looks tight.In his speech, Richardson, to the disappointment of the ABQ Chamber of Commerce, put the nail in the coffin to reinstating the gross receipts tax on food, which was already dead in the House. However, he offered precious little else in the way of guidance on what taxes should be raised. The self-described "tax-cutting" Governor is more than happy to leave the public aspect of that bloody battle to lawmakers. Alas, he repeated to the point of ad nauseum, his insistence that his 2003 tax cuts for the wealthy not be touched, nor his sacred cow tax incentives. And there was little acknowledgement of the systemic problems facing the New Mexican economy. In Bill's world this is a garden variety economic recession that will soon vanish, leaving in its wake the seeds of plenitude he has planted. (He did say that the state must break its dependence on oil and gas revenues as a major source of state funding, but he did not say how.) NO BOUNCY BILL  Richardson was less bouncy than in past state-of-the-state stemwinders. He says he is not a lame-duck, but it is clear he is operating more on automatic pilot than ever before. He has to be somewhat exhausted after seven years which have included a run for president, constant fights with the Legislature, ongoing play-to-pay investigations and now an economy that is softer than a soggy sopapilla.While this Governor was willing to hog it all during good times, advancing an ambitious and often productive agenda and taking full credit for it, he now looks for power sharing and reconciliation in the bad times. He half-joked: There have been times where we have stood far apart--when we stood behind bully pulpits pointing fingers, instead of sitting side-by-side at the table solving problems. I may have even been wrong, once or twice. This Governor and Legislature have aggravated citizens, overreaching in the boom years on spending, giving overly generous tax cuts to the well-off, taking a head in the sand approach to ethics; refusing to cut administrative bloat that permeates the entire body politic; failing to reform an educational system that has made economic advancement that much more difficult and offering incentives to create jobs that are tilted too much toward capital at the expense of labor. Despite this Richardson seemed to capture--if not the prevailing mood--at least the prevailing hope among the average citizen--when he neared the end of his speech and quoted former Governor Bruce King who died this past November: When asked what his legacy would be, he said “I guess just getting New Mexico to realize that if we were going to be successful, we were going to all work together and be one large family.” I believe in this time of need, if we are to succeed, we must work together, maybe even as a family. THE R'S RESPOND Rep. Gardner  Richardson wasn't the only one who seemed somewhat detached from the reality of the New Mexican economic dilemma. Take a look at this reaction to the Guv's speech from House GOP Whip Keith Gardner:Let’s remember that our state’s budget is not in bad shape because of the economy, it is in bad shape because of reckless overspending. By making smart choices and exercising proper restraint we can put our state’s budget back on track.. Say what, Keith? The state has lost over 40,000 jobs in the past year; the oil and gas industry has been in a bear market; commercial real estate in he ABQ area is in a depression; job creation is at a standstill; the unemployment rate when you include the underemployed and those who have given up looking for work is well over 11 percent; housing values have crashed and consumer and commercial credit is as tight as a vise. Gardner's concern about overspending is grounded in reality, but the incredible shrinking New Mexican economy is a chief cause of the budget collapse as it generates less and less revenue. And Keith may have been distracted, but in his opening day speech the Governor reminded everyone that he has cut taxes over $1 billion in his seven years on the job. Republicans voted overwhelmingly in favor of Richardson's budgets and his tax cuts, another part of the equation that adds up to a budget shortfall of at least $500 million and possibly quite more. This is the home of New Mexico politics.Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, July 21, 2009October Special Session Coming Into View; Bill's Call But Key Lawmakers Bowing To Inevitable; State Finances Shipwrecked, Plus: The Carruthers Stretch The outlines of an October special legislative session are starting to come into sight as key players wrestle with one of the steepest economic downturns in state history. State Senator John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith, co-chair of the powerful Legislative Finance Committee, is telling insiders that an October special appears inevitable as state tax collections continue a precipitous decline. ABQ area GOP State Senator Sue Wilson-Beffort, a longtime member of the panel, shares that view. The new willingness for a special began to surface only recently as the downbeat and unrelenting sour economic news shakes even these most experienced New Mexican business and political experts.The big question for the special which would have to be officially called by Big Bill is: Are we going to have across-the-board cuts to balance the state budget for the fiscal year that started July 1st? Maybe not, says Wilson-Beffort: "We hope we are not looking into across the board cuts. It is a complex situation, but there are some programs that are not necessary for running state government that could be cut," she told me after a recent LFC session. Bucket loads of federal stimulus money are slated to be plugged into ongoing government programs like Medicaid to avoid huge shortfalls, but plunging oil and gas revenues continue. Also, Big Bill and Dem Governors know a second federal stimulus bill is politically untenable as R's score points over the already huge federal deficit. One possible worry for the Guv in a special session could be a grab for the NM stimulus money by legislators seeking to divert it to their special projects, but financial circumstances are such it seems the chief executive will have little choice but to call the special. Gerges Scott, a former journalist and now a communications consultant specializing in energy issues with public affairs company DW Turner, points out: For every 10 cent drop in the price for a thousand cubic feet of natural gas, the state loses $12 million annually. For every dollar a barrel of oil drops, the state loses $3.4 million. Natural gas prices have fallen to around the $3.50 level--a stunning crash that is costing the state hundreds of millions in annual revenues. Oil prices at or below $60 a barrel are adding to the financial pressure. And the general recession is causing personal income and gross receipts tax to fall off the cliff. What a mess! THE TRIGGER Wilson-Beffort  Solons are bracing for the next official budget projections slated for an August release. Those numbers are now widely expected to be the official trigger for the special session. Lawmakers have a regular 30 day session in January, but Wilson-Beffort says Governor Big Bill cannot act alone and use state reserves to get us through until then. She says the Legislature must authorize the budget-plugging needed now and that's why we are headed for an October special.Those plunging personal and gross receipts tax collections are caused in part by fearful psychology. New Mexican consumers, like their counterparts elsewhere, have shut their wallets and purses, concerned that it could be their job that is the next to vanish. Throw on top of that the near depression conditions in the ABQ commercial real estate market and you have a state government under increasing pressure to restructure and rid itself of the excesses accumulated during the great bull market that crashed and burned in 2008. POPULIST WAVE? Smith aka "Dr. No"  Some political observers are noting the deepening resentment among rank and file state employees and perhaps the public as well over who will share the burden in balancing the state's stricken budget. By legislative mandate, most state workers have had to increase their pension payments by 1.5 percent, in effect a pay cut for two years. Also, advocates for the huge swath of state residents at or below the poverty level are making more and more noise about those tax cuts for the wealthy engineered by Governor Big Bill and the Legislature in the early part of his tenure. NM Voices for Children, sometimes thought to be on the far-left of the political spectrum, is finding itself more in the mainstream as it calls for a repeal of the Richardson income tax cuts for the wealthy. They are vigorously protesting further program cuts for the disadvantaged.As rank and file state workers begin to absorb the financial hit, an undertow of populism is evident regarding the outsized salaries for hundreds of political employees, educational administrators and other state positions that have seen their pay scales skyrocket under Big Bill. Outrage is also being expressed over apparent violations of the state's hiring freeze ordered by the Governor. Senator Wilson-Beffort said that issue has been a hot one among LFC members as they question the authorization for exceptions to the freeze. THE CHAIRMAN Rep. Saavedra  The budget heat is high enough to even set off talk that the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, ABQ Dem State Rep. Kiki Saavedra, might draw a Dem primary challenger this cycle, an occurrence as rare as a lunar eclipse. While he defends those increased pension payments by rank and file workers as necessary to balance the budget, he has not been heard bemoaning out of whack salaries and bloat in the state bureaucracy or at the University of New Mexico where legislative appropriators have especially close ties. Those ties are coming under increased scrutiny as the economic pain spreads. It is not so much Saavedra's efforts to trim state spending as it is the issue of fairness in spreading the budget pain and causing sacrifice among the elite sacred cows along with the hoi polloi.Still, taking on a powerful chairman who can administer heavy payback if a challenge fails, could keep potential opponents in the heavy Dem district at bay. WATCH YOUR WALLET  A tax increase, a bad idea during a recession, not to mention its overall unpopularity, appears unlikely to come out of any October special session. (But let's not take repeal of the tax cuts for the rich or other special tax breaks off the table). There is some $600 million in cash reserves that can be used to shore up the short fall. In addition, key power players are telling me they will again look at money for capital improvement projects that has been laying around and unspent for several years. Lawmakers this year already transferred some of that money to the operating budget. They may repeat that process in the special session. The Legislature has authorized hundreds of millions for construction projects that never seem to get built.Another year of this depressed economy and the rubber is really going to hit the road. Federal stimulus money and excess dollars still floating around from the golden years are preventing a full-fledged crisis that would force widespread government layoffs and severe program cuts. Chairman Smith and Company hope an economic recovery will kick in before unprecedented action has to be taken. Meanwhile, an anxious public looks on, wondering what programs, salaries and jobs may be cut and whether the politically connected will continue to avoid their share of the burden. SPIN PATROL Gov. Carruthers  We appreciate the home towning of Dona Ana GOP Guv candidate and District Attorney Susana Martinez, and think she'll be a fine contender. And what's wrong with having a Governor from Las Cruces? Jerry Apodaca came out of there to win the Guv's post in 1974 and is generally regarded as a pretty good chief executive. Long ago Guv Ed Mechem also hailed from the southern county. Former Governor Garrey Carruthers claimed the Four Corners as well as Las Cruces as hometown areas in his '86 campaign. He was born in Alamosa, Colorado. (More on that below).But as endearing as the home towning can be, it doesn't mean we're off the spin watch. And that brings us to a contention of former Governor Carruthers. The dean of the College of Business at NM State University asserted in an ABQ Journal interview that Martinez is better known than Carruthers was at this stage of his campaign for Governor. Garrey sought and won the 1986 GOP Guv nod. He also claimed Susana was more known than Gary Johnson was in the summer before the 1994 GOP Guv primary. Johnson won that race and was elected Governor in November. Here's Garrey's newspaper quote: Carruthers...said (Martinez) is "held in extremely high regard in Dona Ana County as a crusading DA," and has better name recognition now than he or the other recent Republican governor, Gary Johnson, did at this stage of their campaigns. Garrey may want to review his history. By July of 1985, Carruthers, now 69, had a statewide profile and was a well-known New Mexico political personality. Why? Carruthers served as Special Assistant to the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture from 1974 to 1975, director of the New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute at New Mexico State University, State Chair of the NM Republican Party from 1977 to 1979 and Assistant Secretary of Interior for Land and Resources from 1981 to 1984. It was this well-established resume that put Carruthers in the top tier of GOP candidates for 1986. As well-known as DA Martinez is in Dona Ana County, to say she is as well-known as Carruthers was 10 months before his June primary is, well, a hometown stretch. GARREY AND GARY Susana Martinez  The Governor Johnson comparison also comes up short in the Carruthers historical test. In July of 1993 Johnson was a multimillionaire contractor who had made a fortune from work his company did at Intel Corporation in Rio Rancho. Granted, he was basically unknown, but he dipped into his personal fortune to buy the name recognition that led to him capturing the 1994 GOP Guv nomination. Martinez does not have the personal fortune Johnson had and will be unable to utilize one to come from nowhere. So it's true Martinez may be as well-known as Johnson was at this stage, but Johnson's money advantage makes the comparison academic. But then Governor Carruthers is now an academic.All of this is not to say that Susana can't win, only that she is going to need more than hometown boosterism to do it. An unvarnished view of the historical challenge that awaits her and a plan to bring into her tent R's who live outside her home county would seem to be a sensible start. THE CRUCES CONNECTION When we think of Governors who came out of Las Cruces we always think of Jerry Apodaca, the state senator who was elected chief executive in 1974 and whose campaign was the first we ever covered. Garrey Carruthers was from Las Cruces when he won the governorship in 1986. but we always felt Garrey ran as a hometown hybrid. He grew up in the Four Corners--on a farm in Aztec--and when he campaigned in '86 he claimed both Cruces and San Juan County as home areas. Kind of like the first President Bush who claimed both Texas and Connecticut as home states. But when he won in 1985, Garrey was a Governor residing in Las Cruces, even if it didn't quite feel that way. SPOILED ENCHILADAS  As if the recession isn't bad enough news for New Mexico restaurants, it's been an especially rough public relations stretch for the famous Roberto's restaurant in Las Cruces. The city annually hosts the world's largest enchilada festival with the help of Roberto's owner. (I think we earlier blogged that the big enchilada was made at the restaurant, but it is actually done near Las Cruces City Hall). But Roberto's was downgraded by local health officials on the very day that Susana Martinez said she would announce her Guv candidacy there. Since then Roberto's has been upgraded by the health squad. But shortly after that good news, a pick-up truck crashed into the famous landmark. The driver has been charged with aggravated DWI. Said Roberto's owner:I guess he couldn't wait for enchiladas. And we don't know if he wanted red or green!" WHY WOULDN'T THEY? Rey Garduno  As anticipated, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez has scored the endorsement of the ABQ Police Officers Association, the union representing the cops. Chavez has been especially generous with salary packages for APD, so their backing was expected. Also, the Democratic mayor will never allow himself to be seen as soft as crime, especially in light of the mass murders discovered this year on the West Mesa and the sensational daylight murder and robbery at a West Side Denny's. However, when we bumped into City Councilor Rey Garduno at the grocery store a couple of weeks, he expressed concerns not often heard among politically sensitive councilors. (The Mayor posted on his Web site a radio spot cut on his behalf by the police union)Substantial police raises (already negotiated for the current fiscal year) will put a strain on the city budget as tax collections continue to sputter. Garduno says criticism of the police budget has become tantamount to casting aspersions on mom and apple pie. But he points out public safety is consuming an ever larger percentage of the budget. More aggressive oversight is needed, argues the councilor. And he sounds persuasive. Garduno's is a lone voice on the nine member council where the political implications of appearing "anti-public safety" are too hot to handle. The candidates for mayor join with Chavez in heartily endorsing more and more spending. (City Councilor Ken Sanchez has warned of tighter budget times ahead, and Monday repeated his concerns. Can't the dead-tree media do an update on the public safety budgets?) Garduno pointed out that a long ago shop-lifting conviction he had and that surfaced during his council campaign in 2007 would surely be brought up if he aggressively pursues a watchdog role. He's probably right, but his willingness to advocate an overdue public debate at a personal cost has a ring of nobility. That's not a word that we have been able to employ much in describing recent events in our still beloved La Politica... E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, February 24, 2015First Take On Dem State Chair Race, Tracking Congress Support For Early Childhood And The Bear Again Mauls The Four Corners I would rate it about 55% for Deb Haaland, 30% for Ellenberg and 15% for Moran. Moran has very little name recognition in the central and northern areas. Ellenberg will do well in the north, and will get a decent amount of support from Bernalillo County, mostly because he’s been a fixture on the scene for so long. But Haaland is more widely known across the state than either of the other two. Democratic party State Central Committee members will meet in April to select a chair for the next two years. Sam Bregman is the outgoing chairman. TRACKING THAT AMENDMENT Northern Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan is on the record in favor of that constitutional amendment that would ask voters to allow the state's big Permanent Fund (over $14 billion) to be tapped to finance very early childhood education (ages 0 to 5). We pointed out Monday that both of the state's US Senators now support the amendment. ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham has not taken a position and we haven't seen anything from southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. In a recent speech Rep Ben Ray Lujan declared: With our children ranking near the top of every bad list, we must do something to break this cycle. The Land Grant Permanent Fund was created to invest in New Mexico, to help create wealth, to pave the way for positive education. What better place than in our children’s future to invest? The amendment is opposed by state House Republicans and as long as they control that chamber the amendment is stalled. It requires approval from the House and Senate, but would not need the signature of the governor but would instead go directly to the voters. MAKE IT TOUGHER  Reader and attorney Steve Suttle says amending the state Constitution is too easy. He writes:(ABQ Dem state) Sen. Ortiz y Pino’s proposal to use the amendment process to legalize marijuana is a dangerous path. Constitutions are intended to be charters and the amendment process is not a proper way to frame ordinary legislation. This is especially true when the bare-faced motive is to bypass a governor who would surely veto such a measure. What is really needed in New Mexico is a constitutional amendment making it more difficult to amend the constitution. At present, a simple majority of the Legislature and a simple majority of the voters can approve any amendment. By contrast, a two-thirds majority in each house of Congress is required to refer a proposed Federal constitutional amendment to the state legislatures or to individual state conventions where three-fourths of them must concur. The Framers deliberately made this a cumbersome process. Amending the state constitution should likewise be more difficult than it currently is. “Progressive” Democrats would be well advised to consider the specter of a future Republican-controlled Legislature using this vehicle to refer constitutional amendments to ban abortion, prohibit same-sex marriage, or to authorize state-sponsored prayer in schools. One need only look to the recent history of the abuse of the initiative and referendum process in Oklahoma to see how well founded these concerns are. SANCHEZ VS. SANCHEZ
At a memorial service Monday at the Roundhouse Rotunda for the late Lieutenant Governor Mike Runnels former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez had the honor of introducing current Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez. Said Raymond: He (John Sanchez) rose to power after kicking my butt. It was in 2000 when Republican John Sanchez ousted Raymond from his ABQ North Valley House seat and thus the speakership of the state House. After 15 years it appears the pair have buried the hatchet but we still wouldn't look for Raymond to endorse John for Governor in 2018. ZIMMERMAN VS. MARTINEZ That didn't take long. Former Dem State Rep. Rudy Martinez, ousted from his Las Cruces area seat in an upset in November by Republican John Zimmerman, is already out on the campaign trail trying to unseat Zimmerman in 2016. Maybe that's why Zimmerman was cozying up to Dem Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith at the Rio Chama. He needs some goodies to keep Rudy at bay. BEAR MAULING  Local contractors in the oil and gas industry are facing severe cuts in the wake of fallen oil prices. One industry leader in the San Juan Basin, WPX Energy, has asked its contractors for a 20 percent price cut on goods and services. . . One of WPX's vendors is Farmington's Calder Services Inc. Shannon Calder Monk said. . . the cuts would be damaging to her family business. "I understand their point of view but I am not making a 20 percent profit," Monk said. "Did (WPX) take a 20 percent cut? I just don't have it to cut it." If you represent the Farmington area in the Legislature, are you pounding the table for more capital outlay projects for the region? You ought to be. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the authorTuesday, November 23, 2010Cracks In The R Ranks: Not All Favor House Coalition, Plus: More Insider Info On Big Budget Gap, And: The Readers Write Cracks have begun to appear among state House Republicans that could make it even more difficult for them to form a coalition with a handful of Dems and take over the chamber. That's the word from our Alligators and insiders who now count three Republicans among the 33 House R's who are not friendly toward supporting Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes for House Speaker--or any other Democrat--to dethrone longtime Speaker Ben Lujan. With 37 Dems and 33 R's, it would take all the R's plus three Dems to form a GOP led coalition in the 70 member House. Take away the three R's and you need six Democrats to do the trick. Not likely. At present, Cervantes has the support of Reps. Nunez, Mary Helen Garcia, Irwin and himself. If all the R's came to his side, that would give him 37 votes--one more than needed to become Speaker. If he pursued a coalition without picking up more Dem support, he could only afford to lose one Republican, but no more than that. We're told the Republicans reluctant to join any coalition have several concerns. One is their hometown constituents and whether they would want them voting for a Democratic Speaker. Another is strategic and one we've previously mentioned. This 60 day legislative session starting January 18 is going to be about cutting budgets and taking services away from the public. Not all Republicans want ownership of that agenda and the resulting pain. If the session doesn't go well, the majority party would be positioned to take the hit. R's in favor of a coalition say take the power while you can. Rarely is the minority party ever in a position in the state House to exercise meaningful influence. This is one those rare occasions. Over the weekend House Dems again nominated Lujan to be their speaker. He overcame a challenge from Rep. Cervantes. Another scenario floated here Monday--that Lujan step aside and pass the Speaker baton to Rep. Ken Martinez--is one of many that will keep the political class playing the guessing game throughout the holiday season and then some. IT'S A TECHNICAL THING  We've been blogging that the $452 million projected shortfall for the state budget year that begins next July 1 is not the final one. There is still another budget estimate to come next month that could--just could--mean the final number is lower or higher. But the final estimate does not come from the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) alone as we have indicated. Here's a full technical explanation from a Santa Fe Alligator we bring to you because this issue is so dominant--and important:What happens in early December is the final Consensus Revenue Projections before the legislative session. Those projections are developed by career economists from the Executive and the Legislature. The numbers that the LFC has been reporting, and more recently, DFA (representing the Administration) showed drastic differences in terms of budget assumptions--namely the growth of Medicaid and retirement contributions. Despite those differences, both the Executive and Legislature are working from the same revenue projections. But in a few weeks, new joint revenue projections will be developed. One of the flies in the ointment in past state budget projections has been the assumed rate of economic growth. The Santa Fe high altitude crowd keeps projecting it to be stronger than it turns out as this merciless recession continues. Now there is this projected recession-inspired explosion in Medicaid growth. There are political implications in the size of the projected shortfall. If it were in the $300 million range much less drastic action would be required to resolve it than if it stays around $452 million. How so? For one thing, a $450 million shortfall could propel that controversial proposal from Senate Majority Leader to issue bonds backed by the state's $3.5 billion Severance Tax Permanent Fund to resolve some of the shortfall. But a hole in the $300 to $350 million range might keep demands at bay that the severance fund be put in play. Clearly, the stakes don't get much higher when it comes to the final revenue forecast before solons gather in Santa Fe January 18. (The severance fund, derived from royalties on natural resources, and the Land Grant Permanent Fund are two of the state's permanent savings accounts that currently total about $13 billion.) TURNER'S TAKE  ABQ PR executive and 2010 GOP Guv candidate Doug Turner grabbed some of the insiders by the collar when he came with an op-ed piece that had the Republican actually supporting the use of the severance fund to help plug the budget hole---but only under certain circumstances.State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez was first to float a trial balloon on bonding the severance fund to resolve the money woes until the state economy recovers. He recently said that the idea will definitely be back in play in the 60 day legislative session starting in January. Sanchez's "raid" would only require majority approval from the House and Senate. Turner says Republican legislators would not vote to bond money headed to the severance fund unless they had voter approval. To that end, he suggests a Constitutional Amendment be placed on on the ballot at a special election in 2011 asking voters to give lawmakers permission to get into the huge savings account. Governor-elect Martinez has expressed wariness of tapping any of the state's legacy savings accounts. However, issuing bonds against severance tax money is current policy for capital projects. The fund has also been used to finance targeted investments in private ventures, but many have not done well. Since Martinez has pledged no tax increases of any kind in her four year term, bonding against the severance fund as a short-term bail-out--either now or down the road--could look tempting to her if state finances don't soon take a turn for the better. THE READERS WRITE  From Jim McClure in ABQ: One of the advantages of living here is the comic relief of New Mexico government. I'm still laughing over the decision of the transportation department to name the I-40/Coors interchange after Gov. Richardson. In my home state of Illinois, where former governors wind up making license plates, they generally do not name anything for a politician until he is deceased and beyond the reach of the law. This saves embarrassment later. Since indictment appears to be an occupational hazard for our politicians, this would be a prudent policy for New Mexico. You'd think they would have learned something when the Hispanic Cultural Center had to remove Manny Aragon's name from a building From Jeff Potter in Alameda: I had to comment on the mention in the blog about naming an interchange after departing Guv Richardson. Having retired from UNM 4-plus years ago, I was astounded by all the buildings named after Senator Domenici and his wife or Governor Richardson and his wife just on the Health Sciences side of campus! What about former Guv Bruce King? Are there any state buildings named after Bruce and/or Alice? It seems to me a big disparity, especially since they both passed away in the last two years and did so much over three decades to advance the quality of all New Mexicans. Besides, Bruce was known for mending political fences, not widening them. The late Bruce King had the main building of NM Farm and Ranch Museum in Las Cruces named in his honor. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, December 07, 2015Gov. Reponds To State's Ranking As "Worst Run State" In The USA And We Respond To Her, Plus: Attacking Terrell; Longtime State Political Reporter Hit By Guv's Political Machine The governor is working to reform and improve education because it is the key to lift people and their families out of poverty. And we are working to make our economy less dependent on the dysfunction in Washington, D.C. by attracting more job creators and creating more private sector employment. She encourages all those who have simply embraced the decades-long failed status quo to choose reform instead. The Governor may be "working" but is she delivering? A court just recently stopped her major education policy in its tracks, finding the teacher evaluation tests the administration so vigorously pursued are deeply flawed. Meantime, her major education triumph in the Legislature has been approval of a symbolic bill that gives A to F grades to the public schools. How's that working out for you? For five years Martinez has claimed our state's status of being last in the nation in reading proficiency is because we don't hold back third graders who don't test well. Never mind the merits of the argument, how about realizing that after five years you might need to craft a different policy that could win legislative approval? But what good would that do? A bipartisan bill to solve the state's driver's license problem with undocumented immigrants passed the Senate this year with major Republican support (it was co-sponsored by Senate GOP Leader Ingle) only to be rejected by the Governor. And then there is the "Washington dysfunction" the administration blames for all the state's economic woes. What about the five long years the administration has had to attract "job creators" and still come up empty handed? Is that all Washington's fault as well? In the end, the Governor and her political machine revert to their default setting--that the state is the worst run because it has always been that way--the "decades-long failed status quo" as her office puts it. The solution, she avers, is too simply "embrace" her inchoate economic and educational policies and all will be well. Instead of imagination, innovation, negotiation and results in education policy and policy across the board we get rancor, bullying, defensiveness, heated political attacks, vendettas and the passing of the buck to leaders of the past. But you would never know it if all you see is the pseudo-smiling governor posing with third graders as a compliant media eggs her on. That, my friends, is a political strategy, not a governing strategy. And that's why you live in the worst run state in the United States. (The ABQ Journal has our permission to run all or part of that commentary). TEARING UP TERRELL
Terrell, a respected reporter on both sides of the aisle, has carved out a middle ground in his coverage of the administration, preserving both his credibility and access. But that was then and this is now. He now joins other New Mexican reporters and its editor in being eviscerated by the machine in the aftermath of their reporting on the McCleskey revelations. Terrell is being accused by the machine (in the guise of their operative and former GOP State Senator Rod Adair) of failing to mention in a 2014 election article critical of ABQ GOP State Representative Conrad James that Terrell's son worked for James' foe--Democrat Elizabeth Thomson. The problem with that? The James article was authored by another New Mexican reporter--not Terrell--who recently disclosed his son's involvement with Thomson when he authored a piece on James' retirement announcement. The Adair attack on Terrell was tweeted out by McCleskey BFF and former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, even though until now White and Terrell have been friendly with each other on social media. But now that White's longtime benefactor is under the gun, Terrell goes under the bus. We won't say we told you so, Steve. But we told you so. The bottom line is that the Guv's machine continues to feverishly work to keep any aggressive reporting at bay by attacking those who engage in it. It serves as a warning to others who might go down that path and it can be quite effective. (Witnesses the mindless babbling you still get in the Machine controlled media over Martinez as a possible VP candidate). The cowering of the media in the Martinez era is one of the big untold stories that your blog has brought to your attention and that's now starting to publicly surface. And that's why. . . This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2015
Wednesday, June 02, 2010Voters Put Incumbents On Notice: Martinez Landslide For GOP And Scare Of A Lifetime For Speaker Lujan, Plus: More State Election Results & Analysis
Martinez & Denish (Journal)
 They don't have pitchforks yet, but the New Mexican electorate appears as restless as its ever been, signaling Tuesday a burning desire for new faces. Republicans awarded a runaway victory to Susana Martinez as their 2010 gubernatorial nominee and Democrats gave NM House Speaker Ben Lujan the scare of his life.Martinez's breathtaking victory--51% in a five way race--and Lujan's near-death political experience--he beat his primary challenger Carl Trujillo by a mere 72 votes--confirmed that the unsettled national political environment has not skipped New Mexico. There is now a target on the back of any long-term officeholder--in either party. The AP wrap on the Guv race is here. More coverage here. All state results here. Bernalillo County results here. Sec. of State results here. Even though she is a 13 year Dona Ana County district attorney, Martinez is a new face on the statewide scene. That conservative Republicans would overlook her thin political resume and opt for the first Hispanic female to ever lead a Guv ticket here or anywhere, demonstrates that the collapse of the old social and economic order is ushering in a new political era where anxious voters break conventional restraints and seek the unconventional. Martinez was fully embraced in nearly all of the state's 33 counties. She didn't allow retired Marine Colonel Allen Weh, her closet rival, to even set a foot on the battlefield. The early vote in Bernalillo County, the state's largest, was released seconds after the 7 p.m. close of the polls. It showed Martinez with an 11 point lead that would eventually grow to an outlandish 17 and to over 20 statewide. That was the first and last shot she needed to fire. The race was over. The landslide numbers: Martinez--51--Weh--28--Turner--12--Domenici--7--Arnold-Jones--3. Mammoth Martinez wins in San Juan and Chaves, longtime GOP bastions, were speckled with healthy turnout numbers and had the R's at our KANW-FM round table on fire. The Dems had them on a starvation diet in 2006 and 2008 and they think this time they've found in the Martinez candidacy the red meat they crave. We have Martinez winning 31 of the 33 counties. Roosevelt and Cibola appear to have gone for Weh. In conservative Lea County in the SE, it was close. Weh scored 39% to Martinez's 44%. No wonder Diane Denish, newly coronated as the Dem Guv nominee, wasted no time in throwing some cold water on this blazing party. Taking the podium at a downtown ABQ downtown hotel, Di dug in her heels, admitting that this was going to be a competitive race. She then began her campaign to end this competition early by dissing nearly every aspect of Martinez's record as district attorney. But with this blow-the-doors off win, you could quickly imagine armored cars full of cash streaming across the state border headed to Martinez headquarters. Martinez didn't offer much new in her victory speech, delivering her now familiar bromides about corruption in Santa Fe and the "bold change" she will bring to the state. But who says she needs to do much more? The Dems greatest fear is that voters--desperate for the new--set the bar exceptionally low for the GOP nominee and don't listen to them as they mount their offensive against the DA's record. Throwing the bums out is a grand old American tradition. After Tuesday night, there may be more politicos in that category than anyone ever suspected. THE LIGHT GUV  Republican John Sanchez, who was the 2002 GOP Guv nominee, took the GOP lieutenant governor nod over Kent Cravens and Brian Moore--39--31--29. State Senator Cravens has to be kicking himself. John spent over $350,000 on the contest--much of it his own money--to make a big TV buy. If Cravens had raised just $100,000 more he would probably be the winner today.Martinez and Sanchez will be the first all-Hispanic GOP Guv ticket in state history. In 1968, the Democrats had two Hispanics lead their ticket. DEM LIGHT GUV This race was never much in question when Brian Colon raised the most money and went up on TV with a big ad buy. Lawrence Rael held Colon at bay in big Bernalillo County--but barely. But outside the metro, Colon won handily. For example, he carried Eddy and San Juan counties big. Statewide, Colon beat Rael 29 to 24 with Joe Campos getting 20. Linda Lopez scored 15 and Jerry Ortiz y Pino 12%. It was no secret that Colon was not a favorite of Di, who fears the former Dem Party chairman's ties to Big Bill could slow the ticket. But in the end, the fear seemed to dissolve as it became clear once again that the top of the ticket will be the feature presentation, even if the R's try to surface Colon's ties to the Guv. Colon seemed all team player in his interviews Tuesday night. GIVE IT UP  Not one candidate who failed to get at least 20 percent of the delegate vote at the March Dem and GOP pre-primary conventions saw the winner's circle Tuesday night. That ought to tell future office seekers that if they can't meet the threshold to make the ballot without filing extra petition signatures, they ought to end their pain early.TURNOUT It's still early, but it appears turnout for the primary was about 28% of registered Dems and R's. About 34% of the R's came out and about 22% of the Dems. The R's surged to over 120,00 surpassing the 115,000 hit when Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce faced off in their hot and heavy 2008 contest for a US Senate nomination. The Dems also had in the area of 120,000 voters. Update: ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) - Unofficial returns in New Mexico's primary election indicate that about 28 percent of eligible Republican and Democratic voters cast ballots. More than 257,000 total votes were cast in Tuesday's election, according to unofficial returns on the secretary of state's web site. The solid turnout is good news for the R's. They are clearly more energized than the Dems. Of course, with only 32% of the state's registered voters they need to be. UPSET CITY Lujan  House Speaker Lujan held on by his fingernails in Santa Fe, but incumbent Valencia County Dem state Rep. Elias Barela was ousted by Julian Luna, the executive director of the NM Racing Commission. Business interests favored Luna.Down Alamogordo way, Republican Gloria Vaughn fell to primary foe Yvette Herrell. Vaughn is getting on in years, normally not a big deal, but in this environment it worked against her. School teacher Jim Smith is going to the Roundhouse. He beat his rival for the GOP nomination for the House seat of Rep. Kathy McCoy who is retiring. The seat includes the far NE Heights of ABQ and East Mountains. No Dem filed for the seat. Republican David Doyle will take on vulnerable ABQ West side incumbent Dem state Rep. Ben Rodefer. Doyle came in first in a three man GOP primary field. LUJAN REDUX So what does the near defeat of Ben Lujan mean to the power structure of the 70 member state House? "It's kind of like the Catholics planning for a new pope. The House Dems will start planning for a new leader. This may very well be Lujan's final two year term." Opined a Senior Alligator. Will there be a challenge to Lujan's reign as there was several years ago when State Rep. Kenny Martinez tried unsuccessfully to coup the strong-willed Lujan? There could be, but "you can't replace somebody with nobody" and no one has emerged, said our Senior Gator. But surely Kenny must be putting his thinking cap back on. Maybe he talks to Ben about a transition in a year or so. Lujan and Denish aren't that close. If she is elected Governor, she might welcome a change in that power seat. Stay tuned. MORE BALLOT ACTION It wasn't all party hats and confetti for the R's primary night. They are worried that they will give up the land commission office to the Dems. The D's nominated former commissioner Ray Powell and the R's came with unknown Matt Rush. R Pat Lyons has held the office for eight years. He ran yesterday for the GOP nomination for a southern Public Regulation Commission seat and he is now expected to win the general election in November. Meanwhile, the Dems dodged a bullet when they rejected the ethically challenged candidacy of Rio Rancho attorney Dennis Montoya. He challenged Court of Appeals Judge Linda Vanzi. She won it 55% to 45%. Bernalillo County was the key, giving Vanzi a landslide. D's did not want Montoya in there adding to their corruption baggage. OBSERVATIONS The E-Nite Radio Gang  Our joemonahan.com polls of mid and late May proved accurate, predicting all the winners in the major races. We had Martinez by 11. She went on to win by 23, picking up most of the undecided and picking off votes from the other four candidates....Dan Houston won the GOP nod for Bernalillo County sheriff over William Kurth. He will face appointed Dem Sheriff Manny Gonzales. R's may be able to pick this one off. No Hispanic Dem in recent memory has been elected sheriff... Should Diane Denish put up a vote on her Web site on whether she should wear eyeglasses? She features both looks on occasion. She looks younger without them, but serious with them. Take your pick.... Will someone give Susana Martinez a platform to stand on or a smaller podium? She looked like she was peeking over a fence when she gave her victory speech in Las Cruces... Thanks to all my guests and contributors to our KANW broadcast. It was fun all around. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, October 19, 2016The Latest: Less Than 3 Weeks To Go; Pence To ABQ Thursday But Why? Leader Egolf Feeling Pressure In State House Battle And Insider Polling Has SOS Race Going Dem In BernCo And Heinrich Gets On Clinton VP List GOP VP candidate Mike Pence returns to ABQ for a Thursday rally at 6 p.m. at the Embassy Suites Hotel and the question is why? New Mexico is colored blue on all the presidential maps and there seems little that could change that after the Trump implosion. That led us to query our Alligators about why the Indiana Governor is spending precious campaign time in a non swing state. The most frequent answer was that the Pence visit is designed was to get out the base Republican vote in order to keep the state House under GOP control. Another reason for the visit? To possibly pave the way for Pence's own run for the presidential nomination in 2020. Besides, Pence will be in Durango, Colorado on Wednesday, a short hop to the Duke City where the TV time he gets will be beamed back to Durango and a lot of other southern Colorado towns that are in the ABQ TV market (so is a slice of eastern Arizona and the Navajo Reservation). The state House battle is fully joined with a path for a Dem takeover more clearly defined than several months ago, but it is no done deal. Pence firing up the R's to go vote is time well spent in that regard. Maybe Gov. Martinez, chair of the Republican Governors Association, had a hand in bringing him in here? (He was also here in August). She has a lot to lose if the House reverts back to the Dems. Bernie Sanders held an ABQ rally at UNM Tuesday that drew a crowd of some 2,000 so Pence's event will serve to counterbalance Bernies's bounce. And maybe Pence picks up some campaign money while at the Embassy suites? Even though Trump and Pence are barnstorming Colorado this week the state is now tipping to the Dems and losing its swing state status. Worse for the GOP pair is Arizona. The state has rarely gone for the Dem presidential candidate. Now that is in doubt with the Dems making a move there. Whatever his reasons for stopping in ABQ, the best advice to Mike Pence is to get back on the plane ASAP and head over to Phoenix. PRESSURE TIME  Our Democratic candidates for the state House should be leading by wide margins. Donald Trump’s campaign is in total meltdown. But his implosion hasn’t seemed to impact down-ballot races. In fact, most of our Democratic candidates are still neck and neck with their Republican opponents. As hard as it is to believe, there is a real possibility that candidates who share Trump’s extreme agenda could be elected to the state House. Egolf made that statement in a fund-raising missive as he works to generate enthusiasm among base voters. There is maximum pressure on Egolf who could very well be selected the next House speaker if the Dems win. If Egolf and his team can't put the House under Blue control with Trump at the head of the GOP ticket and with good starting polling numbers in many of the key legislative districts, when can they take it back? SOS UPDATE
It would be a surprise if Democrat and Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver failed to win back the secretary of state's office in a presidential year when turnout increases. According to insider polling conducted late last week Oliver is indeed on her way to Santa Fe. She is pulling about 54 percent in big Bernalillo County and if that holds on Election Night, she will be elected statewide. Oliver launched her TV ads in early October and that's paying off, along with the high name ID she has earned in BernCo due to her eight years of public service. The R's took the SOS office for the first time since the 30's in 2014 in a stunning victory for Dianna Duran who beat Oliver in a low turnout off year election. But Duran blew it and ended up serving a month in jail for campaign corruption charges This time Oliver faces former GOP Roswell State Rep. Nora Espinoza who this week joined Oliver on the TV airwaves. Espinoza needs to get ABQ in play but her conservative brand of politics makes that an uphill prospect, and having Trump serving as a statewide drag doesn't help. ONE OF 39  The list of 39 names. . . was sent to Clinton by Campaign Chairman John Podesta on March 17. The email was part of a trove of 50,000 purported messages stolen from Podesta’s Gmail account. The email was sent on the heels of Clinton’s sweep of five primaries. . . on March 15. . . The list of potential veeps was compiled by Podesta and top Clinton aides. . . Heinrich is up for re-election in 2018 and we already have hard news for you on that front. ABQ contractor and political newcomer Mick Rich is the first Republican surfacing as a possible foe. Mick Rich is owner and CEO of Mick Rich Contractors in Albuquerque, But because of Mick’s commitment to improving New Mexico’s communities, his story extends far beyond business ownership. Raised in the San Francisco Bay Area, Mick earned his civil engineering degree from Oregon State University and began his contracting career in California and several other states before coming to New Mexico, where his roots stretch back almost a century. His grandfather worked as a mining engineer in deep shaft, hard rock mining in Silver City and Magdalena in the 1920s and 1930s. So when Mick moved here in 1980, he was seeking more than opportunity, he was seeking community. Governor Susana has also been mentioned as a possible '18 Heinrich foe but with her popularity numbers in the cellar and the antipathy toward her in a large portion of her own Party, the prospects look dim. Meanwhile, we're told by our GOP alligators that Rich is already spending money on consultants. That's rich. ART HEADACHES There's plenty of time to absorb the history on historic Route 66 in ABQ, these days. The ART rapid bus construction project is underway this week, with torn up streets slowing traffic to a crawl during rush hours. That was expected but reader Dan Klein has some ideas to make the Central Avenue commute shorter and smoother during the year long project: The contractors and the city seemed unprepared for traffic issues. I recommend two things the contractors do immediately. First, from Old Town all the way up west Central, greatly increase the green light for east/west traffic from 6 am to 9 am every morning and from 4 pm to 7 pm every night. With Central being cut down to one lane we need to keep that traffic moving as much as possible. Second, consider stopping work and reopening a second lane on westbound Central from Old Town to Atrisco during the evening (4 pm to 7 pm) rush hour. I know Berry wants ART and since we are getting it he needs to tell the contractors to make life as easy on the citizen commuter as they can. I think these two ideas, at least for the Westside folks trying to cross the river, should help them get home without sitting for hours in traffic jams. The city says it will not extend the time of the green lights along the ART route until the project is completed. And that's a flashing red light to motorists thinking of getting their kicks on ABQ's Route 66. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016
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